December Madness

The BDBL regular season ended less than a month ago. Since that time, 20 teams have made 28 trades involving 85 players and 26 draft picks. Throughout the entire 1999 BDBL season (a span covering nine months) 20 teams made 31 trades involving 86 players and 30 picks. So you see, we have nearly equaled 1999's totals in less than a month. And this is supposed to be the "OFF"-season??  Get a good look at it, folks, 'cuz this will be the LAST time you ever see a trading frenzy like this in this league.  From here on out, it will simply be too prohibitive to make a lot of trades because contracts will come into play.

High-priced Duos

A lot of high-profile names have changed uniforms this winter, including six players who were first-round picks in last winter's inaugural draft: Greg Maddux, David Wells, Tom Glavine, Scott Rolen, Sammy Sosa and Nomar Garciaparra. Just as last winter's draft proved to be an interesting study on different strategies for building a ballclub from scratch, this winter's activity has provided a very interesting study on different strategies for allocating funds.

At the end of the regular season, the Stamford Zoots appeared to be the only team willing to allocate nearly a third of their total salary on just two players. Today, there appear to be five teams that fit into this category.   One of those five has even taken it a step further by allocating nearly HALF (47-percent) of their salary on just three players.  It's an interesting debate whether it is more beneficial to have two (or three) high-priced mega-superstars surrounded by solid-yet-unspectacular teammates or a more balanced roster. I look forward to seeing how these various strategies play out over the course of the upcoming season.   Bear in mind that there is no "right" answer.  Because this is a new league, there is no precedent to follow.  No other league uses a contract and salary system like ours.  That makes us all "trailblazers" in the Diamond Mind world.  (Just call me "Commissioner Lewis Clark.")

Of course, in the Zoots' case, they will have the best of both worlds. Not only do they get to keep both of their high-priced mega-stars, Kevin Brown and Randy Johnson, but they also will feature a high-powered offense led by Rafael Palmeiro, Omar Vizquel, Edgardo Alfonzo and Magglio Ordonez. Brown and Johnson are especially scary, by the way, because they combined for a mind-boggling 523 innings last season. That translates to FIVE-HUNDRED AND SEVENTY-SEVEN BDBL innings at an ERA of 2.50!! How can the Zoots get away with this? Palmeiro, Vizquel and closer John Wetteland will be the only returning $5 million players. Alfonzo, Ordonez and catcher Brad Ausmus will be the only returning $3 million players. And they will be keeping at least eight $100,000 players, including number-three starter John Halama.

The Hudson Hammerheads will also be keeping two $10 million players: Jeff Bagwell and Sammy Sosa. Just as you won't find a better pitching duo than Brown and Johnson, you won't find a better offensive pair than Bagwell and Sosa. Hudson will only be returning two $5 million players: Mike Mussina and (possibly) Bret Tomko. And only three $3 million players will be returning: Quilvio Veras, Mark Loretta and Brian Anderson. Yet the Hammerheads still have a solid supporting cast thanks to several bargain players: Reggie Sanders ($1m), Jason Varitek ($1m), Pat Rapp ($100k), Ron Villone ($500k), Ryan Rupe ($100k) and Geoff Jenkins ($500k.)

Another team banking a third of their salary on two players is the Bowling Green Spoilers, who will be returning Curt Schilling and David Wells. Those two, combined with Orlando Hernandez, John Smoltz and Woody Williams, give the Spoilers one of the best (if not THE best) rotations in all of the BDBL. The question will be whether there will be enough money left over to provide an offense for this team to surround Doug Glanville, Mark Grace and Garrett Anderson. A better question, though, might be: with pitching like that, do they even NEED more offense? I'm beginning to regret putting the Spoilers in my division.

The Madison Fighting Mimes will be returning two $10 million players as well: Mark McGwire and Tom Glavine. The Mimes are my early-season favorites to become the first 100-win wild card team in the history of baseball (only because they're in the same division as the Zoots.) With McGwire, Brian Giles and Gary Sheffield, the Mimes' offense is loaded. And that doesn't even count Jeff Kent or Matt Stairs, who are rumored to be dealt before the start of the season. Glavine teams with rookie Joe Mays, Wilson Alvarez, Steve Parris and staff ace Kevin Millwood to form a solid staff. And Tim Crabtree, Graeme Lloyd and T.J. Mathews form a solid bullpen-by-committee. How do the Mimes do it? If Stairs and Kent are dealt, that leaves this team with only two $5 million players: Sheffield and Ken Caminiti. And Caminiti is a borderline keeper because of his part-time status last year. Either way, this team is a legitimate contender next season and should wage an exciting battle with the defending champs.

The final team heading into 2000 with the bulk of their salary tied up in expensive franchise players is the Chicago Black Sox. The Black Sox stockpiled youth and talent all year last year on their way to the second-worst record in the league. This year, it will all begin to pay off.  Black Sox GM John Gill has boldly stepped forward into an area where no GM has gone before.  Gill's Black Sox are the first team in BDBL history to employ THREE $10 million franchise players.  And in terms of talent, youth and potential, you couldn't get much better than the three players the Black Sox will be using as a foundation for the next several years.

The Black Sox's three franchise players are 26-year-old Nomar Garciaparra, 24-year-old Scott Rolen and 22-year-old Andruw Jones. All three players not only excel at the plate but in the field as well. In addition to those three, the Sox also feature 20-year-old Rick Ankiel (the hottest young pitcher on the planet right now) and 24-year-old outfielder Roger Cedeno. On the farm, the Black Sox own the first three picks from the 1999 draft: Josh Hamilton, Josh Beckett and Eric Munson. And this winter, the Sox added the powerful duo of Carlos Delgado and Raul Mondesi to the mix. With a little pitching, this team could have a legitimate chance to go from worst-to-first and could be a BDBL dynasty for many years to come.  I can't wait to see if Gill's strategy works.

I have taken the exact opposite approach with my team.   I've stripped my team of all $10 million franchise players and will be building a more balanced team, both financially and on the field.  I don't know whether this strategy will work, but I figure it's worth a try.  I think you'll see a lot of different strategies for building teams in the coming years.  I think it's very exciting to see it all unfold.  It gives you greater appreciation for what teams do at the major league level.

Draft Day

Looking ahead to the 2000 draft, the big question on everyone's mind is: who will be available? Because every player in the league this year is playing under his option year, I see three categories of players being available in this year's draft: 1) players who were ineligible to be chosen at any time last year, 2) players who missed most of last season to injury and whose salaries are too high to waste on a dead roster spot, and 3) players who performed very poorly last year and are not worth keeping at their present salary.

The player in the first category who could be the first player chosen in this year's draft is Alex Fernandez. With pitching being SO thin, Fernandez's 3.38 ERA looks mighty appealing. Is he worth $10 million? That depends. If our inaugural draft were held this year, I'd expect Fernandez probably wouldn't go until the sixth round at the earliest. He threw only 141 innings last year and has a history of recent injuries. But he'll have tremendous value on the trade market this summer, and if a team can afford him in the first round, he'll go quickly. The only other player I can think of who fits into this category is Jeff Frye, who had all of 114 at-bats last season. Alan Benes was supposed to have been another one of these players, but he didn't recover in time and never pitched in 1999.

In the second category, we may see players like Jason Kendall, Javy Lopez, Tom Gordon, Jim Edmonds and Eric Davis.  These guys missed a huge chunk of last season, and their status for next year is in question. Players like Moises Alou, Andres Galaragga, Kerry Wood, Kerry Ligtenberg and Matt Morris, who missed all of last season and could only be kept on a roster if signed to a long-term deal, will likely disappear for a year and resurface in the 2001 draft. And players like Tim Salmon, Ellis Burks, Barry Bonds, Scott Rolen, Denny Neagle, Ramon Martinez and others who missed a big chunk of last season will most likely be kept despite the fact, either because they provided quality innings or at-bats when they did play or because they should recover fully by next season and become worthy of their salaries by then.

In the third category, we may see players such as Roger Clemens, Frank Thomas, Darin Erstad, Francisco Cordova, Jorge Posada, Travis Lee, Al Leiter, Matt Lawton, Gary Gaetti and Jeff Fassero. None of these players lived up to his salary last year, and with the exception of Lee, Posada and possibly Cordova and Lawton, are all past their prime. But players like Eric Chavez, J.D. Drew, Darren Dreifort, Dustin Hermanson, Troy Glaus, Ben Grieve and other young players who failed to earn their pricey paychecks last season will likely be kept for at least another year simply because they have potential and there will be no other attractive prospects available in this year's draft.

In all three categories, I think you'll find that almost none of the players will help your team very much in the 2000 season. If a player is capable of helping his team this season, he will be kept for another year simply because: a) there is no risk in keeping a player for one additional year since the stats are known, and b) there will be so little to choose from during the draft.

Will this situation change? Absolutely. The 2001 draft will include not only players like Morris, Wood, Alou and Galaragga who will be ineligible for this year's draft if they are released, but will also include every player who is signed to a one-year deal (most likely the most popular contract option) at the end of this season. By 2002, the free agent pool will be even greater, and every year after that will present an entirely new pool of players. This year's draft is all part of the growing pains of a new league. Given enough time, the turnover of star players will be great enough to make every draft meaningful and exciting.

As for the farm draft, it appears at first glance as if most of the top prospects have already been chosen. Oddly enough, some of the best prospects in the game remained free agents for the majority of the season last year and didn't get picked up until late in the season. Players like Erubiel Durazo, Adam Piatt and Chin-Feng Chen, for instance. But if you dig deep enough, you should be able to find some gems that are still out there just waiting to be claimed. Two players who will be high on everyone's list are University of California third baseman Xavier Nady and Cuban defector (and now Cleveland Indian) Danys Baez. You'll have to dig up the rest of the gems on your own.

The Lords of Baseball F-Up Again

Baseball owners never fail to amaze me. Just when you think they can't get any dumber, they go and do something that tops the generation of owners before them. This current generation not only brought us the cancellation of the 1994 World Series, but just lost hundreds of millions of dollars thanks to their careless handling of the ESPN situation. While other sports (even, inexplicably, AUTO RACING!!) are raking in the television network dough, baseball continues to drop further and further down the ranking of top-grossing televised sports. One good thing to come out of the ESPN settlement is that we baseball fans get to see about 18 more ballgames every year over the next six years as well as expanded highlights on "Baseball Tonight." Baseball ownership is so mismanaged, you wonder how these guys ever became successful businessmen to begin with. Next up for the owners is coming up with another brilliant revenue-sharing idea. The last one worked so well, Montreal owner Claude Brocheau gets to pocket millions of George Steinbrenner's bucks every year instead of putting it into his team. I can't wait to see what they come up with next.

Hall of Fame Voting

My favorite time of the off-season is the annual election by the BBWA for the Hall of Fame. This year, there is a very weak crop of first-time eligibles including Jack Morris, Goose Gossage and Jeff Reardon (not to mention our very own Kent Hrbek, who I believe becomes the first BDBL division namesake to be eligible for the Hall of Fame.) Returnees include Pudge Fisk, Tony Perez, Gary Carter, Bert Blyleven, Jim Rice and Bruce Sutter.

If the vote were mine, I would list only two names on my ballot: Carlton Fisk and Gary Carter. If you compare the stats of Blyleven or Morris to Hall of Famers such as Perry, Niekro, Sutton and Jenkins, you'll find that they compare very favorably. However, I don't believe any of them belong in the Hall, so we have to stop this madness some time. If you allow Blyleven or Morris in, I think you also have to allow Luis Tiant, Mickey Lolich and Vida Blue in as well. If you allow Jim Rice in, you have to allow Dale Murphy and Harold Baines in (when he becomes eligible - and IF he ever retires.) If you allow Sutter and Gossage in, you have to allow Quisenberry, Tekulve, Lee Smith and nearly every other closer in. And if you allow Perez in, you have to give serious consideration to guys like Eric Karros (the Tony Perez of the '90's) when he becomes eligible.

As for Morris, I believe he was a good pitcher, and probably the last of the old-school "work-horse" type of pitchers. But for every reason to allow him in, I can come up with a reason not to allow him in. He was a good, steady pitcher, but he was never the best in the league in any year of his career, and it's debatable whether he was even among the top three in any year. Of course, you could define Jim Bunning the same way, so maybe Morris should just wait until the Veteran's Committee gets a stab at him.

The real riot-inciting elections come on Leap Day next year when the aforementioned Vet's Committe chimes in with their picks. I'll never understand why this committee still exists. I realize all these old players need an excuse to get out of the house once a year, but do they have to have a say in who gets into the Hall? I understood the value of this committee when it first formed, as legitimate Hall-of-Famers were being passed up, but it's time to shoot this old horse and put it out of its misery.

If the Veteran's Committee elects anyone this year, it should be Billy Martin. It's a travesty that Tommy Lasorda is in the Hall of Fame and Martin isn't. Billy pretty much changed the game with his gutsy managing style and use of middle relievers. Sure, he may have beaten up a marshmallow vendor or two in his time. But the Hall of Fame is loaded with hot-tempered brawlers, so what's one more? Billy was a modern-day John McGraw, and I'd love to see those two plaques hanging together in the Hall.

Whenever the subject of the Hall of Fame comes up, the topic of Pete Rose rears its (very) ugly head. In a recent ESPN poll, over 60-percent of the voters think Rose should be reinstated. I can't figure out why people are so eager to forgive him. Does his bad haircut inspire some sort of misguided sympathy? Is it the "X-Files"-fueled conspiracy-loving generation's way of telling the world they believe Pete was framed by the evil lords of baseball? Does that old footage of Rose ending Ray Fosse's career by barreling over him in an exhibition game elicit warm and fuzzy feelings of compassion? I just don't get it. I wish Bud Selig would step up to the podium somewhere and finally divulge the truth behind Rose's expulsion from the game. Unfortunately, if he did so, Rose's lawyers would sue baseball in half a heartbeat. Maybe Rose should join O.J. on the golf courses and search for the real person who wrote all those betting slips in Pete's hand-writing.

Pedro Wuz Robbed

As long as we're on the subject of dopey baseball writers who hold the power to cast ballots for awards which will stand for all eternity, I'd like to share with you a little personal analysis I did between Pedro Martinez and AL MVP Ivan Rodriguez. As you know, two writers from the BBWA refused to list Martinez on their ballots because "pitchers can't be as valuable as everyday players." I won't even get into the fact that what they did was against the rules of voting, or whether or not these two should be barred from ever voting again (which they should.) Instead, let me take a moment to investigate their claim.

According to one of the writers (who happened to list both David Wells and Rick Helling on his 1998 ballot), his prejudiced opinion against pitchers formed the day Kevin Brown signed that monstrous contract with Los Angeles last winter. His contention was that it was ludicrous to give a guy so much money when he can only play every fifth day. Fair enough, but I think the writer underestimates the impact a pitcher has on every game he pitches. A pitcher may only pitch one out of every five games, but a good pitcher can single-handedly win a game, whereas it's a lot tougher for a hitter to do the same without help from the pitching staff.

In order to get a better handle on this, I ran some numbers on Rodriguez and Martinez. Offensively, I subtracted Rodriguez's numbers from the Texas Rangers' team totals and replaced them with a catcher of average ability. Defensively, I concluded that the average catcher would have allowed 55 more stolen bases over the course of the year than Rodriguez allowed. I then concluded that if a third of those runners scored (probably an over-estimation), that would account for 18 more runs being scored against Texas last season. Plugging Texas' actual numbers into the infamous Bill James Pythagorean Wins formula, I found that Texas' record should have been 89-73 given the number of runs they scored and allowed (as opposed to 95-67 in reality.) With an average catcher behind the plate, Texas' record would have been 84-78 - a difference of five wins.

I then took Martinez out of the Boston rotation and replaced him with the average American League pitcher. With Martinez, Boston's Pythagorean record was 93-69. With an average pitcher in place of Martinez, their record is 86-76 - a difference of seven wins.

So, by my (admittedly crude) calculations, Martinez was responsible for two more wins than Rodriguez last season.  Not a big difference, but the point is that Martinez was every bit as valuable as Rodriguez, if not more so.   I'm sure the writers who left Martinez off their ballot didn't put half as much effort into their theory as I just did debunking it. A shame, isn't it?

Olerud vs. Delgado

Two of the biggest surprises of this major league off-season (to me, at least) were the signings of John Olerud and Carlos Delgado. Both players signed for three-year deals recently. Olerud got $20 million, Delgado got $36. Olerud is 31 years old, had 118 runs created last year and has totalled 349.6 runs created over the past three years. Delgado is 28, had 112 runs created last year, and has 323.3 runs created over the past three years.

Clearly, Olerud has been the better hitter up to this point. He's also head and shoulders above Delgado defensively. Olerud had nine errors last year and is rated by Diamond Mind as having "Vg" range. Delgado made 14 errors and is rated "Av." So why does Delgado get nearly twice as much money as Olerud? Is it the three years difference in age? More than likely, it's the fact that Delgado has out-homered Olerud 112-63 over the past three years. And as we all know, home runs - and not solid, productive players - put fannies in the seats. And fannies in the seats translates to bucks in the owner's pocket. Yet another example of how owners are more interested in making money than putting together a winning ballclub. Not that I blame them for it. I'm just here to point that out.

Oddly enough, I faced the very same decision between these two players at last year's draft. When it came my turn in Round Two, I opted for Olerud over Delgado and was ridiculed for that decision. My belief was that while Delgado may have more potential to become a better ballplayer than Olerud, Olerud was a more solid, reliable pick. Olerud won the OL MVP award for his performance in the BDBL last season. Given the numbers, he should out-perform Delgado at the plate again this coming BDBL season. I think I made the right choice.

A Final Tally of the 1999 Season

As you know, I love monkeying around with numbers. So recently, I put together some fun facts and figures on our 1999 season. I thought I'd share some of those numbers with you here.

Here are the top ten over-performing players of the 1999 season (based on runs created) in the Ozzie League (note: the "Over" column represents the number of runs created over the player's prorated MLB numbers):

Few surprises on that list, although I have to admit I was somewhat shocked to see three of my own players.  I'd like to think they over-performed only because of the way they were brilliantly handled by their manager, and of course all the hard work around the batting cage with hitting coach Julio Franco.   And now, the Eck League list:

No surprise that Ray Lankford tops this list.  He was a Triple Crown candidate while a member of the Cavaliers.  Grieve won a batting title despite a .288 average in the big leagues in '98, so that should have tipped you off that he'd be on the list.  The biggest surprise, I think, is that there is only one Morgan Hill representative on this list.  Playing in a stadium modeled after Coors Field, you'd expect to see more overachievers.  And now, the under-performers.  We'll start with the OL:

No surprise to see three representatives of Plattsburgh on this list, given the amount of whining their owner has done over the past year.  I'll cover the Plattsburgh team a little later.  It's also no surprise to see that Vinny suffered a little with the move away from Coors.  Over in the EL:

The most surprising name on this list is Delgado, who went from a lefty-unfriendly Skydome (HR index of 79 for lefties) to the friendly confines of Tiger Stadium (index of 116), yet saw his production drop.  It's interesting to note that two of the players on this list were first rounders (including the #1 pick overall, Rodriguez) and eight of the ten went in the first five rounds. Now let's take a look at the pitchers. The "Under" column represents the difference in ERA between their major league ERA in '98 and their BDBL ERA last season.  These lists include only pitchers with at least 50 IP in the BDBL.  First, the Ozzie League Overachievers.

Notice anything?  Yep, no Salem pitchers.  Two from Stamford, two from Plattsburgh and two from Los Altos.  Let's continue with the EL:

With a 1.01 ERA, you expected McElroy to be on this list.  Three pitchers from Southern Cal.  You see a pattern yet?   Let's look at the underachievers in the OL:

And in the EL:

By now, the explanation for all of this should be pretty clear.  If not, I'll present one last table:

Aside from the occasional statistical anomaly (such as Stamford, Plattsburgh, Madison and North Mankato's offense or Oakville's pitching), it appears as though players tended to do better or worse depending upon their home ballpark.   That only makes sense, doesn't it?

Of course, this doesn't explain teams like Madison and North Mankato, whose offenses did very poorly despite their home park.  And it certainly doesn't explain how Plattsburgh's home park index of 91 translated almost perfectly on the mound (Plattsburgh's earned runs were 92-percent of what they should have been), but not at the plate (where their offense created only 83-percent of the number of runs they should have.)  One explanation for this is that Plattsburgh played in a very tough pitcher's division and had to face pitchers like Greg Maddux, Omar Daal, Pedro Martinez, Kenny Rogers and Mike Mussina several times during the year.  Plattsburgh had to play Salem, Akron and Marlboro sixteen times each.  Those three teams combined for a 4.13 ERA.  Marlboro's offense suffered similarly because of this (36.8 fewer runs created than expected.)  But Salem (+7.2 RC) and Akron (+22.3 RC) both seemed to do fine despite their division.

Who knows?  Maybe Plattsburgh really was jinxed last season.  The best way to find out would be to simulate several seasons using the same teams and lineups and see how many runs Plattsburgh scores each season.  But even I don't have the time for that!

I'll close with one final interesting statistical tidbit about the 1999 season.  I created a program to extract from all the boxscores all the times a runner was thrown out at the plate. My goal was to determine the gutsiest and wimpiest third base coaches in the league.  I was only able to get through the first 100 or so games of the season, but here are the results.  Enjoy: