March 29, 2000

A Look Into My Crystal Ball

Since I first entered the workforce out of school, I have made it a personal tradition to take a vacation day every year on Opening Day. I buy a bunch of junk food (nachos, chili, etc.) and beer, then plop down on the couch in front of the TV for the ESPN triple-header. It's really no different than any other day - just a little more special because it occurs during a work day. This year, it will be even more special than usual because I have just purchased a satellite dish. Thanks to the wonders of modern technology I will be glued to the tube all summer long. Just a big, lifeless mass huddled into the sinking corner of our couch, transfixed on a flickering box against the wall. As you can imagine, my wife is more than thrilled. But that's what she gets for moving me up to Red Sox country.

With all this excitement right around the corner, it's time for me to fulfill another tradition of mine and make my annual pre-season predictions. I've been doing it every year since 1983 and used to keep records of it to track my accuracy, though those yellowed old sheets of paper were lost during our last move. Fortunately, I can now claim 100-percent accuracy for every year since 1983 without worrying about someone checking on that.

Last year, you might remember, I predicted doom for the Los Angeles Dodgers and prosperity for the Diamondbacks. I predicted a Cy Young for Randy Johnson and an MVP for Derek Jeter (okay, he didn't get it, but we all know he should have.) Of course, I also predicted a division title for the Anaheim Angels, but we'll just toss that aside and focus on the positives.

My predictions for the coming season:

AL EAST

1. New York. No surprise here. When the two biggest questions surrounding your team coming into a season are: 1) who will be our #5 starter?, and 2) who will be our #8-hitting left-fielder?, you know you're in good shape. The only real question for this team is: where are we going to fit a 26th World Championship flag on that crowded facade?
2. Toronto. With Delgado, Mondesi, Stewart and Cruz all improving on last year's numbers and all the kid pitchers having another year of experience under their belts, look for this team to make some noise this year.
3. Boston. I say that once a pitcher posts a 7.00-plus ERA in the big leagues, he should be forced to retire immediately. The Red Sox, though, make him their number three starter. Aside from Pedro and Lowe (and possibly Ramon Martinez), there's absolutely nothing to get excited about on this pitching staff. Of course, I could've said the same thing last year. Only difference is, unless Pedro is the Second Coming of Sandy Koufax, he won't go 23-4 again.
4. Tampa Bay. I'm not impressed with all of their new swing-from-the-heels sluggers. I'm more impressed by the additions of Guzman and Traschel and the improvement of Rupe and Wheeler. If all of those guys do what they're capable of doing, the Rays could finish close to .500. But it's doubtful.
5. Baltimore. This team is so awful I don't know where to begin. By far, the most mismanaged team in all of baseball. 100 losses is a given. Which works out to something like $800,000 per loss.

AL CENTRAL

1. Cleveland. Ho-hum. Talk about boring fans to death. If only we could move one of the NL Central teams (except Milwaukee, of course) into this division, we'd have something to get excited about. Thank god their uncontested dominance of this division is only going to last another year or two.
2. Chicago. If Frank Thomas returns to form and at least half of their kid pitchers fulfill their potential, the White Sox could finish only 10-15 games behind Cleveland instead of 20-30. What a race! Woo-hoo!
3. Kansas City. I love this team in 2001 (if management doesn't screw it up), but there's just not enough here to get excited about in 2000. They really need to fix their bullpen and get a new manager if they're serious about contending.
4. Minnesota. Another team without a bullpen, but they've got two excellent starters (if they don't trade Radke) and some good young hitters like Ortiz, Walker, LeCroy and (eventually) Cuddyer. Once Restovich joins the team, the Twins will finally be contenders again.
5. Detroit. I've seen a lot of people pick Detroit to finish second, but I just don't see it. Gonzalez is a great player, but he can't carry this team alone and is overdue for an injury (especially if he signs that $140 million deal.) Other than Igor, no one on the offense excites me (not even Luis Polonia), and the pitching is atrocious aside from Brocail.

AL WEST

1. Seattle. Junior leaves and Seattle wins the World Series. Wouldn't that be great? No, it's not my prediction, just a fantasy. If they allowed someone other than Piniella to handle the pitching staff, I'd like this team better. But I think Garcia and Halama have one more year in them before their arms fall off, and Sele, Moyer and Tomko round out a pretty solid rotation. With Rhodes and Sasaki, even their bullpen should be a little better, too. By exchanging Griffey, Hunter and Ibanez for Cameron, a healthy Buhner and Olerud they've actually improved their offense. Add in a mid-season Safeco-funded Gillick pick-up and a late-season debut by Little Unit and you've got yourself a winner.
2. Oakland. With Grieve, Chavez and the brothers Giambi, Oakland should put a lot of runs on the board. But I think their inexperienced pitching staff is still a year or two away from making this team a division winner.
3. Texas. The rebuilding process has begun on offense. Now all they need to do is get rid of some of that dead wood on the pitching staff. Contending teams are always looking for good lefties for the rotation down the stretch. Maybe Texas can trade one of their four lefty starters and get a good young pitcher in return.
4. Anaheim. This team comes close to being as poorly run as the Orioles. This is what happens when Corporate America gets involved in sports.

NL EAST

1. Atlanta. Maddux and Glavine are bound to improve this year, so even without Smoltz they'll be okay on the mound (they always are.) And the offense should improve now that they finally found someone to hit at the top of the order (bringing a sad ending to Bobby Cox's Mark Lemke/Otis Nixon/Ozzie Guillen Era.)
2. Montreal. I don't know why, but I just have a warm and fuzzy feeling about this team. As bad as their off-season moves have been, I still think this team can contend as early as this year. With Guerrero, White, Barrett and Bergeron on offense, Hermanson, Pavano and Vazquez on the mound and a solid bullpen, I think this team could make a run at the wild card.
3. Philadelphia. Philly fans have been waiting a long time for a savior like Robert Person to lead this team to the promised land. I think that time is drawing near. With Ashby on board and Abreu, Rolen, Lieberthal and (eventually) Burrell plugging away on offense, Philly should finish with 80-83 wins or 84-88 if Schilling is completely healthy.
4. New York. Alfonzo, Ventura and Henderson are all due for a decline. Exchanging Rogers, Yoshii and Hershiser for Hampton, Rusch and "The Other" Bobby Jones is a downgrade, as is the exchange of Olerud and Cedeno for Zeile and the embarrassingly-awful Derek Bell*. I put the over/under on Bobby V's firing at June 1st.
5. Florida. It won't be long before this team finally recovers from its massive rebuilding project, but until then it's last-place again.

* - Side note: I just watched the Mets-Cubs game taped from 4:00 this morning.  Derek Bell is wearing a uniform that looks like it would be ten sizes too big for Rick Reuschel.  His "short sleeve" shirt billows well below his forearms and his pants look like bell-bottomed pajamas.  He nearly steps on them when he runs.  It is the worst baseball fashion statement since Harold Reynolds' double-breasted purple velour ensemble with the wide lapels and shoulder pads he wore during a "Baseball Tonight" airing in 1998.  It makes the 1981 Chicago White Sox home unis (you remember, the ones with the built-in lapels) look downright stylish.  He looks so insanely ridiculous, so clown-like, and is such a disgrace to his team, his country and Major League Baseball, I can't help but think that Bobby Valentine has lost complete control of that clubhouse.   But I digress.

NL CENTRAL

1. Cincinnati. Despite all the media attention, the fate of this team rests not on the shoulders of Junior, but on the fragile shoulders of Pete Harnisch and Denny Neagle. If both are healthy, Cincy will win this division.
2. Houston. Very few pitchers have won 20 games in back-to-back seasons over the past two decades, so I find it unlikely that Lima (one of my favorite players in baseball, by the way) will win 20 again. I'm not a big Shane Reynolds or Chris Holt fan, and I think Dotel is at least another year away from putting up Mike Hampton numbers. So based on that alone, Houston can't win as many games as last season. I think the offense will improve with Alou and Ward taking over for Everett and Bell and Meluskey taking at-bats away from Eusebio. If Elarton were completely healthy I might pick this team to win the division. But he's not, so I won't.
3. St. Louis. Mark McGwire is all pumped because the Cards went out and got Pat Hentgen and Darryl Kile this off-season. I think Big Mac is doomed for a rude awakening. Those guys suck, and they've sucked for a long time now. But if Matt Morris returns to form and Rick Ankiel develops as expected, I could see this team contending for a wild card (or even a division title) - especially now that Edmonds is on board.
4. Pittsburgh. You gotta love their pitching staff. Some players have said Pittsburgh has the second-best staff in the league behind Atlanta's and I can't argue with that. If the kids (Hermanson and Ramirez) can hold their own offensively, this team might be in the hunt for the division title.
5. Chicago. With Valdes, Lieber and Wood, the Cubs have a pretty decent pitching staff. Unfortunately, they have no bullpen and little offense aside from Sosa.
6. Milwaukee. What can you say about this team? They lose Cirillo and Nilsson and gain...Jose Hernandez and Jimmy Haynes?? This is what happens when you put a Selig in charge. In the running with Baltimore and Anaheim for "Worst Franchise in Baseball" status.


NL WEST

1. Los Angeles. They've got Kevin Freakin' Elster starting at shortstop and Gary Sheffield's personality is becoming almost as grating as Bobby Bonilla's. But still, I can't deny that the talent is there to win this division. The pitching - especially Dreifort and Park - has nowhere to go but up. And with Sheffield, Green, Karros and Beltre, they've got enough offense to win.
2. Arizona. Too many players had career years last year (Luis Gonzalez, Randy Johnson, Matt Williams and Jay Bell to name just four of them.) But Travis Lee should improve and if Durazo is for real (and healthy), they may all cancel each other out. Beyond Johnson (who's due for a decline), Daal and Mantei, however, I'm not all that excited about their pitching.
3. San Francisco. Speaking of unexciting, have you seen San Fran's pitching staff? Reuter, Estes, Ortiz, Gardner, Hernandez and Nathan? Yawnsville. At least they've got a shiny new ballpark.
4. Colorado. Other than tuning in to see Cirillo hit at 5,280 feet, I can't imagine spending much time watching Colorado games on my dish this year.
5. San Diego. You gotta love that kid Ben Davis. Why? Because Tim Zigmund hates him, that's why. But aside from him, there's not much to get excited about in San Diego unless you're really pumped about seeing Gwynn pass Paul Waner on the all-time hits list.

AL Wild Card: Oakland
NL Wild Card: Houston

AL Champion: Yankees
NL Champion: Cincinnati
World Champion: Yankees

Of course, in this day and age, predicting division winners like the Yankees, Indians and Braves is about as difficult as predicting who will win the next Harlem Globetrotters vs. Washington Generals match-up. So to make things a little more interesting, here are some more predictions:

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL CY: Orlando Hernandez
AL ROY: Matt LeCroy
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Kevin Appier
AL Manager of the Year: Jim Fregosi

NL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero
NL CY: Kevin Millwood
NL ROY: Peter Bergeron
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Moises Alou
NL Manager of the Year: Felipe Alou

AL Batting Title: Derek Jeter
NL Batting Title: Jeff Cirillo
AL HR Title: Manny Ramirez
NL HR Title: Ken Griffey, Jr.
AL Wins Leader: Orlando Hernandez
NL Wins Leader: Denny Neagle
AL ERA Leader: Orlando Hernandez
NL ERA Leader: Kevin Millwood

And finally, some miscellaneous predictions:

-- Atlanta will once again lose in the post-season due to the inept bungling of Bobby Cox. (Hey, I have to pad my stats with some obvious predictions, right?)

-- Here are some more obvious ones: 1) Donovan Osbourne, Jose Canseco, Sandy Alomar, Ken Caminiti and Cal Eldred will all spend a significant amount of time on the DL, 2) John Rocker will say something incredibly stupid, 3) Darryl Strawberry will claim that he has turned his life around thanks to The Good Lord and 4) Mike Morgan (is he still in baseball?) will be traded at some point during the season.

-- Livan Hernandez's arm will literally fall off while throwing his 160th pitch in the ninth inning with San Fran leading by a score of 14-6.

-- Shawn Green will become the first player ever to hit a home run into the San Francisco Bay.

-- In addition to adding advertising to player jerseys and the sides of hats, displaying rotating billboards on every square inch of ballpark, selling off the traditional names of age-old ballparks to corporations, blaring TV ads between innings on Diamondvision monitors and allowing radio and TV sponsoring of every conceivable baseball situation imaginable (ex: "Fans, that throw over to first by the pitcher was sponsored by Trojan condoms, because you can never be too careful!"), baseball will begin selling off team names as well. It will start with teams like the Braves and Indians, whose team names are already "offensive." But soon, baseball fans will see match-ups between the Seattle Microsofts and the Houston Compaqs.

Side Note #2: I noticed during the Mets-Cubs game that players were sporting an advertising logo on the sides of their helmets.  Notice how the owners just quietly snuck that one by everyone without any press whatsoever?  This is just the beginning, people.  Just wait and see.

-- Shortly after signing his $140 million contract, Juan Gonzalez will follow in Junior's footsteps by demanding a trade, blaming Detroit's new ballpark for his declining numbers. He will claim that he wants to play closer to his family in Puerto Rico and therefore will accept a trade to no other team but Seattle.

-- On "Paul O'Neill Day" at Yankee Stadium during the final game of the season, plastic water coolers will be lined up along the first base line for O'Neill to take a whack at one last time before he retires. A dented water cooler will be placed in Monument Park alongside Fritz Peterson's wedding ring and Sparky Lyle's ass-imprinted birthday cake.

-- The entire U.S. Women's Soccer Team will file paternity charges against Padres outfielder "Dirty" Al Martin.

-- Scott Karl, now of the Colorado Rockies, will set a Major League record for home runs allowed, hits allowed and post-game Advils.

-- Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez will become the oldest 29-year-old ever to win the American League Cy Young award.

-- America's Hero, Mark McGwire, will rail against Major League Baseball's efforts to expand on-air broadcasts over the Internet, saying owners are only doing this to make more money.

-- John Rocker will receive a standing ovation from the rednecks in Atlanta during introductions at the 2000 all-star game. Ted Turner will be leading the way.

-- Finally, after years of speculation and rumors, Brady Anderson will step out of the closet and become Major League Baseball's first openly-gay active player.