June 29, 2000

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

As you can probably tell by now, I'm a big fan of stats.  Around this time of year, when stats finally begin to mean something, I like to pour over everything and search for all the quirky, wacky and just plain head-shaking stats that make this game so interesting.  So, if you enjoy this sort of thing, too, read on.  (Note: all stats are as of mid-season.)

-- Take a look at these seven stat lines:

All pretty similar, right?  Player A is Craig Biggio, B is Will Clark, C is David Justice, D is Jose Offerman, E is Brian Jordan, and F is Ray Lankford.  And Player G?   That's the #9 spot in the Salem batting order - the combined stats of their five starting pitchers.

-- Some unusual stat lines you may have missed:

• Jay Buhner (Boise, by way of Salem) is hitting just .115 this season over 26 at-bats with an OPS of .857.  How is this possible?  His on-base percentage is .395 thanks to 12 walks, and his slugging percentage is .462 thanks to the fact that all three of his hits have been home runs.  If that doesn't prove to Billy Romaniello that batting average is a meaningless stat, I don't know what will.
• Marty Cordova (Stamford) has a higher batting average (.402) than any other player in the BDBL with over 100 at-bats.  Tony Phillips (Bowling Green) has the lowest (.180.)
• Of the players who qualify for the batting title, Litchfield's J.T. Snow has the lowest batting average (.222) in the OL.  What's more surprising is the list of hitters who fill out the top ten: Sammy Sosa (.225), Tony Batista (.228), Jeff Kent (.242), Quilvio Veras (.244), Chili Davis (.246), Rusty Greer (.250), Eric Young (.253), Jay Bell (.253) and Albert Belle (.254.)  Getting back to Snow, it's interesting that the only reason Snow is in Litchfield's lineup this year is because Edgar Martinez was moved to third to make room for him.  If Litchfield had kept Brosius at third and Martinez at first, they'd actually have a better hitter in the lineup (Brosius is hitting .269/.329/.641 in 78 AB's) and a much better glove in the field.  Despite Edgar's hot start in the field, he's actually been (deservedly) below average with 10 errors in 69 games.  His .935 fielding percentage ranks seventh among the twelve Ozzie League starters, he's eighth in total chances per game (a lousy indicator of defensive range, but the only one we've got), and seventh in double plays per game.
• Not only is Sosa hitting just .225, but he has just 7 doubles all year and is third in the OL in strikeouts, with 87.
• Livan Hernandez (Kansas), who was acquired from the New Milford Blazers before the season along with Todd Stottlemyre in exchange for Kenny Rogers and the draft pick that became Matt Mantei, has the highest ERA (6.67) in the BDBL.  Not surprisingly, Kansas (who trail the entire BDBL in ERA by a wide margin with a team ERA of 6.30 thanks to their home ballpark) have three of the EL top ten in this category.  A little more surprising (at least to those who don't live in my house) is that the Salem Cowtippers, who are 5th in the OL in ERA at 4.53, own two of the top ten highest ERA's in the OL (Javy Vazquez at 6.60 and Sterling Hitchcock at 6.06.)  The Blazers are the only other team in the BDBL with two pitchers sporting 6.00-plus ERA's (the Infamous Jose Rosado and the Legendary Robert Person.)
• Kevin Young of Akron leads the BDBL in grounding into double plays, with 18.  Tino Martinez (Boardwalk), Rickey Henderson (Phoenix) and Adrian Beltre (Cleveland) have yet to ground into one this year.
• Javier Vazquez (Salem) is hitting .387 over 31 at-bats this year.  He has an OBP of .441, a slugging percentage of .774, and has three doubles, three homers and 11 RBI's.  He has one more homer and nine less ribbies than his team's two starting shortstops, Rey Sanchez and Kevin Stocker, combined.  And they've had 263 more at-bats than him.  Is it any wonder that Vazquez has already racked up two pinch-hit at-bats this year (one resulting in a game-winning three-run homer)?
• New Milford Blazer pitchers have combined for a .116 batting average, with no homers and 8 RBI's.  Kenny Rogers, Chuck Finley and Jose Rosado are a combined 7-for-109 (.064.)  Time for a new hitting coach.
• Luis Castillo and Eric Young lead the OL in caught stealing, with 13 each.  Castillo, however, has been successful only 14 times compared to Young's 36 steals.  Roger Cedeno of Chicago is the BDBL leader with 14 CS's, and has stolen 38 bases.
• Queensboro's Jim Thome is the runaway BDBL leader in whiffs, with 102.
• Stamford's infield of Brad Ausmus, Rafael Palmeiro, Edgardo Alfonzo, Omar Vizquel and the platoon of Corey Koskie and Mike Lowell have committed 18 errors this season - combined.  Boardwalk's Todd Zeile has made 19 errors - alone.
• If Zeile is looking for help from his teammates, he'd better not look to his left.  Boardwalk's shortstop, Alex Gonzalez, has made 18 errors - second-most in the BDBL.  Combined, the left side of Boardwalk's infield has made 37 errors.  The next highest total by teammates is 30, by Minneapolis' Jay Bell (15) and Dean Palmer (15.)
• Dante Bichette (Massillon) and Bobby Abreu (Plattsburgh) lead all outfielders with 16 assists.  Abreu is rated an Ex for his arm, Bichette is an Av.

-- The Salem Cowtippers and Phoenix Predators are tied for the lowest number of unearned runs allowed, with 23 each.  The Madison Fighting Mimes have the highest number, at 63.  How important is defense?  Well, according to my astute calculations, about three wins for the pugilistic silent clowns.  In other words, if the boys from Wisconsin had an average D, they would be two games behind the Zoots instead of five.

-- Nowhere is the difference between the Ozzie and Eck Leagues greater than in the passed ball department.  Ozzie League catchers, led by Hudson's sieve-like Jason Varitek (20) have let 107 pitches sail through their wickets.   Eck League catchers have allowed just 55.  You can take the combined totals of seven Eck League teams and you still wouldn't have as many passed balls as Varitek has allowed this year.  Ironically, the Queensboro Kings are the only team in the BDBL that have yet to allow a passed ball.  Ironic because the Kings' two main catchers, David Nilsson and Phil Nevin, have played corner infield positions more often than they've played behind the plate in their careers.

-- Other differences between the two leagues: home runs, stolen bases and intentional walks.  The Eck League has hit 25-percent more longballs than the Ozzie League, but that is mostly due to the inflation effect of Kansas' Fields of Tombstone.  The Eck League has also stolen 10-percent more bases than the Ozzie League, and has been more successful (69% to 66%) in doing so.  More than likely, these two factors have led to a decrease in intentional walks in the Eck League.  Eck League managers are 33% less likely to order an IW than Ozzie League managers. 

The BDBL leader in IW's is the Boise Bastards, with 36.   In the big leagues last year, only five managers in baseball ordered more than 36 free passes all year - in 162 games!  Overall, BDBL managers have issued 479 intentional walks this season.  Projected over 162 games, that would be 995 total.   In the big leagues last season, 1,106 intentional passes were issued for all 30 teams combined.  If you prorate that to 24 teams, you get 885.  So basically, BDBL managers order about 12% more IW's than their big league counterparts.  BUT, National League managers - who play by the same rules we do - issued a total of 678 IW's.   Prorated over 24 teams, that's 1,017.  So in reality, BDBL managers actually order 2% LESS IW's than their big league counterparts.  Which isn't really much of a difference, is it?

-- If there is one thing I wish Diamond Mind would add to their game, it's the ability to track managerial statistics.  I mean, every game ever invented has a way for the user of the game to keep track of his success or failure.   When it comes to managing, the line is somewhat blurred as far as determining these factors.  Other than wins and losses, there really isn't any way to tell - statistically - the good managers from the bad.  A successful team may be filled with talented players and win despite their manager (like the Atlanta Braves.)  And an unsuccessful team filled with horrible players may lose despite having a very talented manager (like the '62 Mets.)  But, the kind of stats I'm talking about involve the results of decisions made by a manager such as:

• Number of times a hit-and-run was called, and the success rate of doing so.  For instance, I'd like to see the number of times a runner was able to advance an extra base because of the hit-and-run, number of times the batter missed and the runner was caught stealing (or was successful), number of times a double-play resulted despite the hit-and-run because the batter lined out to an infielder, etc..
• Number of times a sac bunt was called, and the number of runs that scored after the call was made.  When a manager calls for a sacrifice bunt, he is attempting to exchange an out for a run.  So, it only makes sense to want to see how many times this strategy was successful.
• Pinch hitter batting average.  This, of course, depends a lot on the talent of a team's bench.  But it also requires the manager inserting the right hitter at the right time.
• Success rate for intentional walks.  The whole purpose of issuing an IW is to prevent runs from scoring.  So I'd like to see the number of runs scored after an intentional walk.

There are many other categories, of course.  But my personal favorite stat would be number of pitch-outs, with the number of times a manager guessed right or wrong.  Just for kicks, I've been keeping track of this stat with my own team this year.  Here are the results so far (note: I've counted only games managed against a live manager):

Just for comparison, if you prorate these figures over 162 games, my team would pitch out 72 times and my opponents would pitch out 107 times.   In the big leagues last season, the highest number of pitch-outs thrown by any team was 75, by Jimi Williams.  The next highest was only 57, by Phil Garner.  The average major league team pitched out 27 times.  And the average number of times a pitch-out was called with the runner moving was six.  That's a 22% success rate.   Of all the managers with 25 or more pitch-outs, the highest success rate was by Terry Francona, who guessed right 33% of the time (9 out of 27.)  Gene Lamont was the worst at 11% (3 for 28.)  Not surprisingly, the most predictable manager in the game last year was Bobby Valentine, who had his runners moving on a pitch-out 15 times.   No other manager was caught more than 7 times.

-- For the second year in a row, Blazer pitchers are far under-performing:

Even considering the Blazers' home ballpark (+7% run bias), these numbers just don't add up.  Let's do some simple (admittedly flawed) math.   The Blazers are on pace for 1365.1 IP this year.  If you assume the Blazers play all their away games at neutral parks (which, of course, they don't), Blazer pitchers should have somewhere around a 4.24 ERA on the road and 4.54 ERA (4.24 times 7%) at home.   Put it together and over 1365.1 innings, the Blazers should have an ERA somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.39.  Of course, this doesn't take into account ballpark factors for major league stats, the expansion factor, the DH factor, etc..  But suffice it to say that the Blazer's team ERA should be somewhere between 4.20 and 4.50.

You still with me?  Okay.  The Blazers are on pace to score 708 runs this year, and their defense is currently yielding 9.2% unearned runs (i.e. 9.2% more unearned than earned.)  So...if the Blazer pitchers allow 666 earned runs (4.39 ERA over 1366 IP), that translates to 727 runs total.  If you use the infamous Bill James Pythagorian Wins formula on 708 runs scored and 727 runs allowed, you'd get a final record of 78-82.  Instead, the Blazers are on pace to finish with a record of 55-105.  I could run through the same process for last season's Blazers team and come up with the same results, but I don't want to bore you any more than I have already.  Basically, what I'm saying is: I think it's time for New Milford to hire themselves a new pitching coach.

-- Speaking of Mr. James and his trouble-causing formula, there are only two teams in the entire BDBL right now that are more than three wins above or below their "Pythagorian" wins: Southern Cal at minus-4 (meaning they "should" have four more wins than they do right now based on the number of runs scored and allowed) and Cleveland at minus-5.

-- Not to pick on the Blazers (although it is so much fun), but they are the only team in the league right now with more caught stealings (37) than stolen bases (28).  Last season, the Blazers were last in SB% with 55 CS's and 67 SB's (55%).  Umm...I think it's time for a new first base coach in New Milford.

-- For those of you who were with us last year, you may remember the other great controversy from the 1999 season (courtesy of Mr. Rocket Scientist): home/road splits.  Last year, only nine out of the 24 teams in the BDBL had better records at home than they had on the road.  This year, it's even more lop-sided: five of 24.  The reasons for this are pretty simple: a) a human opponent is generally (but not always) harder to beat than the MP and some if not most away games are played against an MP, and b) if you take away the human element of the home field advantage (crowd noise, familiarity with the home ballpark, jet lag, hotel rooms vs. the comforts of home, etc.), the only real advantage for the home team is getting the final at-bat.  There is also a home field advantage for those teams whose GM's have tailored the team to the ballpark.  There aren't many parks, though, where the dimensions are so drastically different that they would create an advantage for any certain type of player.  Three teams, however, have performed better at home than on the road both last season and this season: Bowling Green, Gillette and Southern Cal.  Not coincidentally, all three feature excellent pitching in good pitchers' ballparks.

-- The Zoots lead the Ozzie League in balks by a wide margin, with ten.  No other OL team has more than five.  C.J. Nitkowski alone has accounted for half of Stamford's balks.  That's more balks than nine other OL teams.  He had only three balks in the big leagues all of last year, so I don't know quite how to explain that one.  Most of us would just add it to the pile of atrocities against our team.  But for Stamford, a team blessed by the baseball gods each and every season, this is as "bad" as their "bad luck" gets.

-- A few weeks ago, I was openly whining about my team's misfortune in the wake of Sterling Hitchcock's season-ending surgery.  So, in order to make myself feel better, I started compiling a list of teams who are worse off than me.   It wasn't easy, but I was able to find the following list of players whose stats (as of 6/27) are even worse than Hitchcock's, and having at least as much contracted money remaining as Hitchcock's $9 million (pity the poor Gillette Swamp Rats):

-- Notice anyone missing from this year's BDBL Futures Game?  Here is a list of players who didn't make the cut, either due to poor performance, injury or poor splits between levels: Adam Dunn, Mark Mulder, Josh Beckett, Ramon Ortiz, Chad Hermanson, Eric Munson, Junior Guerrero, John Patterson, Matt Riley, Mario Encarnacion, Mike Cuddyer, Nick Johnson, Dee Brown, Matt LeCroy, Pat Burrell, Adam Piatt, Vernon Wells, Jayson Werth, Dannys Baez, Dernell Stenson, Sean Burroughs, Ruben Mateo, Felipe Lopez, C.C. Sabathia, Ed Yarnall, Brad Penny, Alfonzo Soriano, Mike Restovich, Chip Ambres, Travis Dawkins, Sun Wu Kim and Milton Bradley.

-- The Los Altos Undertakers pitching staff is absolutely sickening.  They're the most efficient staff in the league by far.  They're the only staff in the entire BDBL that averages less than 140 pitches per game, 62-percent of their pitches are thrown for strikes, and they average just 3.3 walks per game - all BDBL lows.  This brings up an interesting comparison:

• MLB pitchers: 4.46 ERA, 9.2 H/9, 3.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
• BDBL pitchers: 4.71 ERA, 9.6 H/9, 3.9 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9

BDBL pitchers have given up 6% more earned runs per game, 4% more hits and 8% more walks than they did in the big leagues.  One of the many theories about why pitching is so bad these days is that rampant expansion has thinned the pitching pool so much that many pitchers are in the big leagues that shouldn't be there.   Yet here in the BDBL, we've reduced the pitching pool from 30 teams to 24 and the pitching has gotten worse.  Interesting, isn't it?

-- The highest number of pitches thrown in a game this year was 198 - yes, ONE HUNDRED AND NINETY-EIGHT - by Darryl Kile of the Kansas Law Dogs.   But before you go thinking that Chris Luhning is the Dusty Baker of the BDBL, let me tell you that Kile's total is only the second-highest in BDBL history.  That dubious record was set by a poor fella by the name of Jeremi Gonzalez.  Gonzalez tossed an incredible TWO HUNDRED AND TWENTY SIX pitches in a Chapter Four game last year between Gonzalez's Los Altos Undertakers and the North Mankato Mudhens.  Gonzalez's line: 8 IP, 18 H, 20 R, 18 ER, 11 BB, 10 K, 226 pitches, 119 strikes, 51 batters faced.   Talk about taking one for the team!  So, as it turns out, JEFF PAULSON is really the Dusty Baker of the BDBL!  Who woulda thunk it?

-- In 73 games so far this season in which Pudge Rodriguez has caught the entire game, opposing baserunners have attempted to steal 53 times off of him.  Last season in the big leagues, only 75 players attempted to steal on Pudge all year, and only 47% were successful.  But in the BDBL so far this season, 66% have been successful.  The leader in CS% right now is Stamford's Brad Ausmus, who has gunned down 18 would-be base stealers while allowing only 16 SB.  BDBL managers are running most often, believe it or not, against Blazers catching phenom Ben Davis (1.82 SB attempts per game.)  They are running least often against Ausmus (0.63 per game.)

-- The biggest comeback victory of the year (and maybe in history) so far is the Zoots' win over the Blazers in Chapter Two.  Stamford fell behind 11-0 in the first inning, but fought back to win 17-12.  No other team has come from behind by more than 7 runs.  The biggest late-game come-from-behind win was by the Massillon Tigerstrikes, who scored four in the eighth and two in the ninth to beat the Queensboro Kings by a score of 7-6.  The biggest blowout of the year was an 18-0 pasting of the Kansas Law Dogs by the Boise Bastards in Chapter One.  But the 'Dogs have also been bullies themselves, pummeling the Irish Rebels the next chapter to the tune of 16-0.

I'm afraid that's all I have for you for now.  A lot of big events are coming up in the BDBL.  First, of course, the long-awaited birth of the next Romaniello.  Then, the trading deadline and the last big free agent pick-up period.  Then, the long-awaited BDBL get-together at Yankee Stadium.  I apologize for the long delay between "From the Desk of the Commish" pages.   I know how the two or three of you who read this page get upset when you go more than a week without seeing some new material.  But I believe in presenting quality, not quantity to my loyal readers.  The next one probably won't be until early August, and it will probably feature a review of the four major events I named above (note: I promise not to get too graphic on the first.)  Until then, enjoy the next four weeks of fun in the sun and I'll see some of you - in person - soon.