March 28, 2001

Predicting the Future

In search of a topic that is innocuous enough to keep me out of trouble for at least a week, I turn once again to the tried-and-true crowd-pleaser known as pre-season predictions. As I have done every year since 1983, I will attempt to predict the future of the coming Major League Baseball season to the best of my psychic ability. Then, at the end of the year, I will look back at these predictions and wonder how I could have ever been so stupid.

In that traditional vein, let's take a look back at my predictions from last season, posted right here on this very page last March (actual finish in parentheses):

As you can see, the results of my fortune telling were somewhat mixed. I predicted the correct finish for only four teams, but I was only really off the mark on one team (Milwaukee.) If you use the Pete Palmer method that Diamond Mind Baseball uses to compare their predictions to the actual season results (by taking the square of the difference for each team, then summing the squares), I get a score of 58. In comparison, Diamond Mind's 2000 predictions resulted in a score of 68 (note: the lower the score, the better.) Though DMB correctly predicted the standings of twelve teams last year, they were way off the mark on four teams (Texas, White Sox, Houston and Milwaukee.) So while my score beat their score, I'm not willing to say that my predictions were any more accurate.

In addition to predicting the final standings, I also like to make predictions on award winners and league leaders. Unfortunately, of the eighteen predictions I made last year, not one of them came true:

• AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez.  Close, but no cigar.
• NL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero.  Great player, bad team.
• AL CY: El Duque.  I hate predicting the same players to win the same awards every year, which explains why I didn't pick the obvious choice of Pedro.
• NL CY: Kevin Millwood. I should have known that the Big Unit would have one more Cy Young year left in him - he was still under contract with the Zoots.
• AL ROY: Matt LeCroy. Oops.
• NL ROY: Peter Bergeron. Oops again.
• AL Comeback Player of the Year: Kevin Appier.   He went from 16 wins in 1999 to 15 wins last year.  I really can't explain why I chose him for this award.
• NL CPY: Moises Alou. I have no idea if Alou won this award, but he should have.
• AL Manager of the Year: Jim Fregosi. I believe he was the first manager fired last year.
• NL MOY: Felipe Alou.  Like Guerrero, a great man on a bad team.
• AL Batting Champ: Derek Jeter.  He finished 5th, about 30 points below Nomar.
• NL Batting Champ: Jeff Cirillo.  Finished 8th, about 50 points below his teammate Helton.
• AL HR Champ: Manny Ramirez.  Missed 44 games, finished with 38 homers.
• NL HR Champ: Ken Griffey, Jr..  Hit 40 homers - ten less than Sammy.
• AL Wins Leader: El Duque.  Doh!
• NL Wins Leader: Denny Neagle. DENNY NEAGLE??
• AL ERA Leader: El Duque.  Boy, I sure loved El Duque last spring, didn't I?
• NL ERA leader: Kevin Millwood.  Okay, so I suck at this.

Enough of the reviewing. Let's get to the fortune telling. My predictions for the 2001 MLB season:

AL EAST:

1. New York - The Yankees have the weakest lineup in the division and one of the weakest in the league. Their starting staff is filled with aging question marks. Their bullpen, beyond their closer, is awful. And their defense, with Knobby in left and Soriano playing out of position at second, is below average. Yet somehow, some way, they will find a way to win this division. And if they do make the playoffs, you can be assured of two things: 1) continued whining from the Bud Selig small market toadies, and 2) the Yankees will once again be the worst team in the post-season.
2. Boston - I'm not convinced that Hideo Nomo, Frank Castillo, Tomo Ohka and Paxton Crawford belong in a pitching rotation of a contending team.  But then, I haven't been convinced of the Red Sox pitching for three years now.  Their entire season hinges on Nomar's health, which doesn't look too good at the moment.
3. Tampa Bay - I'm putting my neck out on the line with this pick, but I think this team could surprise a few people. Paul Wilson could win 15 games this year, Ben Grieve will thrive in Tampa, and the supporting staff really isn't all that bad. If Wilson Alvarez and/or Juan Guzman can come back from injury, if some of the old guys like Ken Hill, Vinny Castilla, Greg Vaughn and Fred McGriff can suspend their downward slides for a year, and if a kid like Jesus Colome, Ryan Rupe or Josh Hamilton can step up quickly, this can be a dangerous team.
4. Toronto - We're talking about a starting rotation of Esteban Loaiza, Joey Hamilton, Steve Parris, Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay. Carlos Delgado or no Carlos Delgado, no team with a pitching staff that lame should consider itself a contender.
5. Baltimore - The modern-day record for losses set by the '62 Mets could be in big trouble this year. The O's replaced their two best players last year (Albert Belle and Mike Mussina) with David Segui and Mike Bordick. Need I say more?

AL CENTRAL:

1. Cleveland - This is the last hurrah for the Indians, who will soon be hanging out with Detroit at the bottom of the standings. Cleveland has a better offense and better pitching than the White Sox, but it will still be a tough battle to win this division.
2. Chicago - The White Sox benefitted from some unlikely performances by Cal Eldred and James Baldwin last year. Take away their hot first halves and this team probably doesn't win the division. The Sox have more good, young pitching than any other team in baseball. If one of those kids steps up, they could run away with it again, but I think it will take another year for them to develop.
3. Kansas City - If the Royals played in the AL East, they'd have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Royals win more games this year than the big, bad Yankees. Like Toronto, K.C. could use a legitimate ace at the top of their rotation. Or, if nothing else, some proven starters. Still, Reichert, Rosado, Suppan, Stein and Suzuki are better than what Toronto has. And we already know the Royals offense is capable of providing enough run support (even without Damon.) In the hands of a better manager, the Royals would be a contender even in this division.
4. Minnesota - You've gotta love the starting rotation of Radke, Milton and Redman. Once Matt Kinney and Adam Johnson develop a little longer, this rotation could be the Second Coming of the Atlanta Braves, circa 1991. The bullpen is surprisingly deep as well. The problem, as always in Minnesota, is the offense. Why this team couldn't go out and get a few hitters this winter is a mystery. It must drive Twins fans nuts.
5. Detroit - This organization just doesn't have a clue what it takes to build a winner. Their farm system is one of the worst in baseball, and they traded away whatever decent young players they had in order to rent Juan Gonzalez for a year. I feel sorry for Detroit fans, too.

AL WEST:

1. Oakland - If I were a big league GM (and dammit, I should be), this is the kind of team I'd build. I absolutely love this team for this year and for the next five years. If the A's ever move to San Jose, they could be a Yankees-like dynasty for the next decade.
2. Texas - If you consider that the Rangers and Mariners have almost the exact same types of pitching staffs once you adjust for ballpark, then the Rangers come out head-and-shoulders above Seattle in terms of offense. Of course, it takes more than just offense to win, as Rangers fans will soon discover.
3. Seattle - They've lost three Hall of Fame players in the past three years and start the season with an injured Jay Buhner and Gil Meche. They have no legitimate leadoff hitter (unless you believe in Ichiromania), no legitimate #2 hitter, no legitimate cleanup hitter and a bottom-third of the lineup that rivals the New Milford Blazers. This organization needs to write this season off and regroup for 2002.
4. Anaheim - On the plus side, you've got Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus and Darrin Erstad - three of the most productive hitters in any Major League lineup. On the minus side, you've got a pitching rotation that includes Pat Rapp, Ismael Valdes and Tim Belcher - three of the most useless pitchers on the planet.

NL EAST:

1. Atlanta - As long as the Braves have two of baseball's best pitchers (Maddux and Glavine) and two of baseball's best everyday players (Jones and Jones), they'll be a contender. The 2001 Braves will probably be their weakest team in the past decade, but they should still win this division (then, of course, lose in the post-season.)
2. Philadelphia - Yep, that's right. You don't see too many people (outside of Philly) predicting a second-place finish for this club, do you? But I like to include at least one wacky pick every year, and this year, I like Philly. With Chen, Person, Daal and Wolf, they could have the deepest rotation in the league. And with Abreu, Rolen, Burrell, Lee and Lieberthal, the Phils will have the best offense in the division. Call me crazy now, but just remember where you read it first.
3. Florida - A good, young team that is only going to get better. The Marlins have a nice, balanced mix of starting pitching, a very deep bullpen and surprisingly strong offense.
4. New York - I didn't like the Mets last year, and I like them even less without Mike Hampton. No team with an outfield of Benny Agbayani, Jay Payton and Timo Perez deserves to have expectations as high as the Mets this year. But with Mike Piazza, Edgardo Alfonzo, Al Leiter and a very deep bullpen, they should be able to finish around .500.
5. Montreal - Like Florida, the Expos have a good, young team that will only get better. Vlad Guerrero, Jose Vidro and Fernando Tatis give the 'Spos three big bats in the middle of the lineup. If any one of the kids (Peter Bergeron, Michael Barrett or Milton Bradley) steps up, that would be a huge boost to the offense. And if the kid pitchers (Javy Vazquez, Tony Armas and Britt Reames) come through, don't be surprised to see this team battle for the wild card.

NL CENTRAL:

1. St. Louis - They won the division last year with Mark McGwire missing more than half the season. This year, not only is McGwire back, but Matt Morris should be 100-percent as well, and J.D. Drew will be one year older and a whole lot better. There's no reason to think that St. Louis won't be a better ballclub than last year's division-winning team.
2. Houston - We have to assume that Jose Lima will pitch better in 2001 than he did in 2000. It would be almost impossible for him to pitch worse. You know the Houston offense will be outstanding, so the biggest question mark is their pitching, and Lima is the key.
3. Chicago - I love this team for the next decade, but for this year, it's the same old story for the Cubbies. The best thing they could do this year is baby Kerry Wood's arm to the point of embarassment. But with Don Baylor, you know that won't happen.
4. Cincinnati - I've overestimated their pitching for several years now, and I'm not going to make that same mistake this year. They do have one of the best bullpens in baseball, but the starting staff is barely adequate. Look for Sean Casey to have a big year, though.
5. Milwaukee - A lot of people are predicting greatness for the Brewers after last year's surprising effort. I'm not convinced. A lot of these same people are predicting greatness for Ben Sheets this year. I say he's the 2001 version of Kip Wells. I liked Milwaukee a lot better when they relied on guys like Jeff Cirillo, Fernando Vina and Dave Nilsson. Now, they seem like the Detroit Tigers of the National League.
6. Pittsburgh - The Bucs have a new ballpark this year, but the problem is they have the same people running the show. You could put Phil Geisel in a tuxedo, but in the end, he's still Phil Geisel. (And if you've ever seen how Phil acts when he's wearing a tux, you know what I'm talking about.) Their one true hope of finishing out of the cellar, Kris Benson, now looks as though he's starting the year on the DL. Not a good sign.

NL WEST:

1. Colorado - I've already made this prediction on the message board, so this should come as no surprise. The Rockies greatly improved their starting rotation this winter. Add to that a bullpen that is already one of the best in baseball. Add to that an improved effort by Jeff Cirillo, the continued development of Todd Helton, a healthy Larry Walker (for now at least) and a full year of Ben Petrick, and I see best team in the Western Division.
2. San Francisco - I have never been impressed with the Giants pitching staff, even when Big Daddy was their ace. But somehow, they always seem to get unexpectedly solid performances from their starters. Bonds is still the best player in the National League and Jeff Kent has somehow turned himself into an MVP.
3. Los Angeles - From Bob Daly to Kevin Malone to Davey Johnson to Gary Sheffield, the people in this organization just can't seem to keep their mouths shut. Despite that, they still manage to field a competitive team year after year. They spend a lot of money, but like most organizations, they don't know how to spend it wisely.
4. Arizona - The funniest story of the off-season was how Arizona owner Jerry Colangelo was able to convince several of his players that his franchise was losing money. If only Colangelo could convince the rest of us that the D-Backs aren't a bunch of aging has-beens who have no clue what it takes to win.
5. San Diego - Hard to believe it was only three years ago that the Padres were the National League champions. They are definitely a team in rebuilding mode. But unlike other last-place teams I've predicted - Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Anaheim and Detroit - the Padres actually have a decent farm system, and therefore something to look forward to.

Okay, now that I've put my neck out on the chopping block, let me stick it out there a little further. Here are some more predictions for the 2001 MLB season:

• AL wild card: Chicago
• NL wild card: Philly
• AL champion: Oakland
• NL champion: St. Louis
• World champion: Oakland
• AL MVP: Bernie Williams
• NL MVP: Bobby Abreu
• AL CY: Pedro Martinez
• NL CY: Greg Maddux
• AL ROY: Ichiro Suzuki
• NL ROY: Corey Patterson
• AL batting champ: Alex Rodriguez
• NL batting champ: Todd Helton
• AL HR champ: Troy Glaus
• NL HR champ: Ken Griffey, Jr.
• AL wins leader: Bartolo Colon
• NL wins leader: Mike Hampton
• AL ERA leader: Pedro Martinez (1.48)
• NL ERA leader: Greg Maddux

Random predictions:

• Ichiro Suzuki's final stats: .287 batting average, .358 OBP, .425 SLG, 8 HR, 97 R, 68 RBI, 23 SB, 1,598,647 pictures taken.
• First five picks of the 2001 amateur draft: 1) Joe Mauer (Minn), 2) Mark Teixeira (Cubs), 3) Mike Jones (TB), 4) Mark Prior (Phil), 5) Casey Kotchman (Tex).
• First manager fired: Jim Tracy, LA.
• First GM fired: Randy Smith, Detroit.
• In August, the Dodgers will trade Gary Sheffield to the Yankees for Alfonso Soriano, Ramiro Mendoza, Alex Graman and Shane Spencer.
• The Marlins' Preston Wilson will set a new all-time record for strikeouts in a single season.
• Cal Ripken, Jr. will finally - mercifully - hang it up, in what is sure to be the most lavish, over-emotional going-away party in baseball history.
• On the eve of the all-star break, Major League Baseball will announce that the terms of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement have been extended for two more years.
• The Dodgers' Carlos Perez will become baseball's version of O.J. Simpson.
• Manny Ramirez will have his worst year ever in the big leagues, and will be booed on a nightly basis by the Fenway "faithful."
• Two years ago, Bud Selig's spin doctors began spreading the stat that none of the playoff teams at that time were below the top ten in payroll. When that no longer proved true, they began spinning the stat that only a handful of playoff games over the past five years have been won by teams below the top ten in payroll. This year, when that no longer proves true, they will begin spreading the stat that over the past five seasons, only four World Series games have been won by teams outside of the top ten in payroll.
• For the second year in a row, I am predicting that Brady Anderson will become baseball's first openly-gay active player.