December 21, 2001

Making a Mockery of the Draft

The BDBL free agent draft is always one of the most exciting days of the year.  But with the advent of the proposed auction draft, this may be the end of an era.  Attempting to figure out what will happen in a draft is always a hit-or-miss exercise in futility.  It's an inexact science, which explains why I was so inexact last year when I attempted this same exercise.

Of the six players I guessed would be drafted in the first round, I got five of them right.  So far, so good.  Of the eighteen second-rounders I guessed would be chosen, I correctly guessed eleven of them.  Not bad.  But of the 24 players total that I guessed, I correctly matched a team to the player they chose only five times.  Now, if I were one to make excuses, I'd blame it on the fact that I wrote that article a week before the trading deadline, and several picks were traded that created a domino effect throughout the league.  But I'm not one to make excuses, so I'll just promise to do better this time and leave it at that.

The Free Agent Class of 2002 features two ace pitchers, two MVP-caliber offensive players, several great-hitting first basemen, several star-caliber second basemen and more quality relievers than you can shake a stick at.

Coming into our fourth season, just about every team has a ton of money to spend.  Last year, only sixteen teams could afford to take picks in the second round.  This year, I'm projecting that twenty teams will participate in that round.

ROUND ONE

#1: Allentown.  The biggest no-brainer of the draft.  Johnson is far and away the best BDBL free agent available since our Inaugural Draft in 1999.  After carrying the Zoots to three straight championships, Johnson will probably carry the Ridgebacks into the playoffs all by himself.

#2: Salem.  I have inside information straight from the Cowtippers front office that if Johnson is gone, Mike Mussina will be taken with the #2 pick of the draft.

#3: Manchester.  The Irish Rebels traded Chipper Jones in order to make room for this pick, so whoever they choose should be worth $2 million more than Jones.  Simply put, there isn't anyone available who is worth $2 million more than Jones.  The closest player to him is Gary Sheffield, who hit .311/.417/.583 to Jones' .330/.427/.605.  But my sources have learned that the player the Irish Rebels truly covet is Roberto Alomar (.336/.415/.541), who will set the table for...well...whoever the Rebels have left to knock him in.

#4: Marlboro.  For the second year in a row, the Hammerheads have the #4 pick in the draft (and it is the third year in a row they've had one of the top five.)  Last year, they chose Robb Nen with this pick, then traded him for Phil Nevin, who was then traded for Sean Lowe, Mike DeJean and a pair of Paul Marazita's slightly-used nose-hair trimmers.  Let's hope they do better this year.  This pick comes down to a choice between Sheffield and Brett Boone (.331/.372/.578).  With an outfield of Jenkins, Erstad and Ichiro, there is no place to put Sheffield.  That, coupled with Ken Kaminski's love affair with the Boone Brothers, makes this an obvious selection: Brett Boone.

#5: Arizona.  Arizona is a rebuilding team with a need for some serious offensive power - something the franchise has never had.   So the obvious selection here is Sheffield, who would automatically become the heart of the Heat lineup and be a solid building block for years to come. 

#6: Los Altos.  It seems unusual to see the Undertakers so high in the draft, doesn't it?  Especially when you consider that this is one of the few picks Jeff Paulson didn't trade for.  The Undertakers are gunning for another division title, and their current rotation of Chan Ho Park, Aaron Sele, Shawn Estes and Jason Marquis is probably good enough to get them there.  But Jeff Paulson likes to remove all doubt about these things, so I think he'll take Jamie Moyer (3.43 ERA, 187 H and 44 BB in 210 IP) with this pick.  Now that Los Altos is free of the burden of Albert Belle's $10 million contract, they have the money to spend, and no better player to spend it on.

#7 Marlboro.  The Shark traded some pretty good players (Glendon Rusch, Julio Lugo and Milton Bradley) for this pick, but I really don't see the point in using it.  If he decides to go for a one-year rental, he could pick up Rafael Palmeiro with this pick, but he could easily get a similar first baseman in the second round.  Or he could pull another Robb Nen and select someone like Keith Foulke.  But that strategy makes even less sense this year than it did last year.  My bet: Marlboro will pass.

Though there is a ton of money to be spent in this draft, I don't see any more picks being made in this round.  The next tier of players simply isn't worth the salary, and the return those players would get in mid-season trade is not as great as the benefit of having a good $5m player or two.

ROUND TWO

#1: Allentown.  Oh, to be Tom DiStefano.  To go into a draft with Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez in your lineup, and Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt in your pitching rotation, and the top pick in every salary tier.  Must be nice.  After adding Johnson, I think the Ridgebacks will be looking to add one more stud hitter to the lineup.  Allentown could have their pick of the bounty of first basemen available, but I think they'll opt for third baseman Eric Chavez (.288/.338/.540), who is much younger than any of the first basemen.

#2: South Carolina.  After trading the AL Cy Young and an all-star center fielder to the Zoots for a pair of 2005 all-stars, the Sea Cats are clearly in rebuilding mode.  It's tough to build around a $5 million player, but the 'Cats have the money to spend, and they did pay a hefty price to get this pick.  With Nick Johnson slotted to be the Sea Cats first baseman of the future, and Warren Morris contracted through 2003 at second, I think South Carolina will build their future bullpen around Keith Foulke (2.33, 57 H, 22 BB, 75 K in 81 IP.)  Among all the other options, Foulke might have more mid-season trade value than any other player available.

#3: Manchester.  After trading Todd Helton, the Rebels are in need of a first baseman, preferably a lefty to go with righty slugger Vladimir Guerrero.  That narrows down the decision to either Rafael Palmeiro or Ryan Klesko.  Palmeiro (.273/.381/.563 with 47 homers) has a 68-AB advantage over Klesko (.286/.384/.539 with 30 HR), but Klesko is six years younger.   For that reason, I think the Rebels will opt for Klesko.

#4: New York.  The Knights rotation includes Matt Morris, Robert Person and a whole lot of nothing.  Their starting lineup includes Jason Giambi, Moises Alou and Bernie Williams.  Since there is such a shortage of quality starting pitching in this draft, I think New York will go with the best pitcher available.  In my mind, that's either Woody Williams (4.05 ERA, 224 H, 56 BB, 154 K in 220 IP) or Hideo Nomo (4.50, 171 H, 96 BB, 220 K in 198 IP.)   Hmm...eenie meenie miny mo...I'll go with Williams.

#5: Arizona.  With Curt Schilling as the team's only quality starting pitcher, the Heat need some quality innings in a big, big way.  Nomo would fit the bill, but I think 26-year-old Ramon Ortiz (4.36, 223 H, 76 BB, 135 K in 209 IP) is the better fit for a team looking to the future.

#6: Los Altos.  If the first round of the draft pans out the way I have laid out, then the Undertakers rotation and bullpen will be completely set.  All they'll need is a big hitter in the lineup to go with Rich Aurilia and Larry Walker.  Carlos Pena is clearly the first baseman of the future for the Undertakers, so why not grab Palmeiro with this pick as a great one-year stopgap?

#7: Marlboro.  Having passed on their second first round pick, the Hammerheads will be looking to add either a first baseman or a pitcher at this point.  Their pitching options include Nomo, Rick Reed (4.05, 211 H, 31 BB, 142 K in 202 IP) and Jason Bere (4.31, 171 H, 77 BB, 175 K in 188 IP), who were all very similar to each other last year, and have about the same value going forward.   At first, the Hammerheads could have their pick of either Edgar Martinez or Paul Konerko.  Since Marlboro already has an adequate first baseman (Jeff Conine), but no adequate #2 starter, I think they'll go with Nomo (but not before waffling about it for days, of course.)

#8: New Milford.  The Blazers' biggest problem (okay, just one of their many problems) is that all of the best players available in the draft are players whose positions have already been filled on the Blazers.  Jeff Kent, Ray Durham or Craig Biggio would make a great second baseman, but the Blazers are already committed (some would say overcommitted) to Alfonzo Soriano.   Paul Konerko or Edgar Martinez are capable of providing the type of instant offense this team desperately needs, but the Blazers are already overloaded at first with Doug Mietkiewicz and Eric Karros.  Omar Vizquel would be nice at short, but they already paid an enormous price for David Eckstein.  And with Greg Maddux, C.C. Sabathia and Chris Carpenter in the rotation, the Blazers don't need to pick up a fourth starter with this pick.  That leaves Dmitri Young (.302/.350/.481), who could play left field, first base or even third base while becoming the Blazers' instant cleanup hitter.  It may not be the most exciting pick, and I'm not sure that Young would ever be worth $5 million, but I don't see any other viable options for the Blazers. 

#9: Madison.  With their infield set for the 2002 season, the Fighting Mimes could use a quality starter to go with Joe Mays, Elmer Dessens and Kevin Millwood.  If the choice is between Bere and Reed, I'll flip a coin and guess Bere.

#10: Villanova.  The Mustangs could use another starting pitcher as well, but even more so, they need a right-handed power bat to go with lefties Jeromy Burnitz and Cliff Floyd.  Conveniently, they have an open spot at first base waiting for Konerko (.282/.349/.507), who should solidify that position for 2002 and beyond.

#11: Great Lakes.  The Sphinx franchise has been in desperate need of pitching since the beginning of the league.   This year is no exception.  At this point in the draft, the choice comes down to Reed or Tim Wakefield (3.90, 156 H, 73 BB, 148 K in 169 IP).  Since Reed has 33 more innings under his belt, and the two of them are about the same age, I'll give the nod to Reed.

#12: Southern California.  The Slyme's pitching staff is set, so they should be looking toward picking up a bat.   With Damian Rolls and Brett Abernathy currently pencilled in as the second base platoon for the Slyme, I think they'll opt for an upgrade.  That means a choice of either Jeff Kent (.298/.369/.507), Ray Durham (.267/.337/.466) or Craig Biggio (.292/.382/.455).  Of the three, Durham is the only one under 34 years of age, and with the Slyme on the bubble as far as contending or rebuilding, I think they'll opt for Durham.

#13: Salem.  Jeff Kent was a nightmare for the Salem Cowtippers last season.  First, he caused a big ruckus when he came to Salem in a Chapter Four trade with the Madison Fighting Mimes.  Then, he hit .248/.333/.428 in 222 at-bats for Salem down the stretch, performing worse than the player he replaced, Randy Velarde.  Then, to top it all off he played in all four games of the OLCS without driving in a single run.  Unfortunately, he's still the best player on the board at this point, and Salem is in dire need of a second baseman.   So Kent gets the nod.

#14: Los Altos.  Yet another Los Altos pick and we're only two rounds into the draft.  Get used to it.  The Undertakers just recently traded for this pick, which tells me that they plan to use it.   As we all know, Jeff can't resist adding a quality arm to the bullpen.  And there is no better quality arm available at this point than Arthur Rhodes (1.72, 46 H, 12 BB, 83 K in 68 IP.)

#15: Cleveland.  With around $20 million to spend on 17 players, the Rocks may choose to pass on this pick.  But when recent trade offers were floated around, asking for a second round pick, the Rocks didn't respond, which leads me to believe they'll use it.  Cleveland could use a first baseman, second baseman, shorstop, outfielder and...well, everything else.  So their pick basically comes down to picking the best available player.  Edgar Martinez would probably be the best hitting option to them at this point, but Craig Biggio probably has more mid-season trade value as a second baseman.  For that reason, I'm guessing the Rocks will go with Biggio.

#16: Kentucky.  When the Fox traded for Moises Alou at $5 million and an extra $3 million draft pick, that was an obvious tip-off that they don't intend to use this pick.  Even if they wanted to use it, I'm not sure who they'd pick.  Richie Sexson is entrenched at first until well past the end of the Bush administration, so the best hitter available - Edgar Martinez - wouldn't have fit.  Tim Wakefield, the best starting pitcher available, is probably not worth a $5m pick to a team under a tight budget.  And the Fox don't need to spend $5 million on a reliever when they already have four good ones.  So I think they'll pass.

#17: Stamford.  And in exchange for superstar reliever John Riedling, the Stamford Zoots pick up perrennial MVP candidate Edgar Martinez (.306/.423/.543).  Yes, the Zoots have done it again.

#18: Litchfield.  And you were wondering why Stamford traded for the 17th pick in the second round of the draft?   Clearly, Litchfield would have loved to re-sign their former star third baseman for another season.  With Will Clark retired, Edgar would have fit right into the Litchfield lineup.  Instead, the Lightning will be forced to hold their nose while drafting Wakefield.  He's the best starting pitcher available for a team that desperately needs starting pitching.  And though he's not a $5m pick by any means, Litchfield can afford to purchase a one-year keeper as they shoot for that elusive division title once again.

#19: Gillette.  With about $13 million to spend on 16 players, I don't think the Swamp Rats will make a pick, especially given what's left to pick.

#20: Kansas.  Thanks to all their wheeling and dealing last year, the Law Dogs will only have about $10 million left to spend on 15 players this draft, so I think they'll pass on this round.

#21: Chicago.  The Black Sox are around $52 million in payroll, so they may or may not pick in this salary tier.  If they think they can compete this year, Omar Vizquel would be a nice one year replacement for Nomar.  Or, they could opt for an ace reliever like Chad Fox (1.89, 44 H, 36 BB, 80 K in 67 IP) or Jeff Nelson (2.76, 30 H, 44 BB, 88 K in 65 IP.)  My guess is that they'll take Fox, then trade him if it turns out they can't compete.

#22: Akron.  The Ryche are a good reliever away from repeating in their division, so they'll grab Nelson with this pick, ensuring that no right-handed hitter will ever beat them in the late innings.

#23: Salem.  The Cowtippers could use some depth in the pen, and Ramiro Mendoza (3.75, 89 H, 23 BB, 70 K in 101 IP) is probably the best reliever in the draft at this point.  Sounds like a good fit.

#24: Stamford.  Having been satisfied with the successful building of yet another championship ballclub, King Marazita simply passes on this pick, not needing any more talent to win his fourth straight title.