Trades commentary Author Message BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-12-02 12:39 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well, since no one else is stepping up to the plate, I guess it's up to me (again.) Trade #1: Griffey/Pena for Pierre/Schoeneweis. Definitely a win for Atlanta, who rid themselves of a 50 MILLION DOLLAR burden. If I were Atlanta, I would've traded Griffey for a pair of used socks. To get a couple of young players who are cheap and have some upside is a bonus. Griffey's career seems to be taking an odd turn toward mediocrity and frequent injury. Worst of all, his attitude seems to be, "so what?" With his latest injury, I don't think he'll be worth his salary next year, and only Miss Cleo knows what the future brings for him. But that's a $50 million gamble I wouldn't be willing to take. That said, in terms of this year alone, Griffey is a huge upgrade over Pierre in center field for 'Nova. That may (or may not) be enough to put some distance between the Mustangs and the Knights. With or without Griffey, though, I can't see 'Nova advancing past the Division Series. Trade #2: Cirillo/Farnsworth for Rupe/Lamb/Infante/Nunez. My first reaction to this trade was "huh??" and my second reaction was "why??" Farnsworth is a nice middle reliever and Cirillo is a slight upgrade over Lamb, but what's the point? Are those two - and Lieber - enough to make the Rocks a better team than Akron? The Rocks have been out-scored by their opponents by more than 40 runs this year, and I can only see that margin increasing as the season continues. From Atlanta's standpoint, I'm having a hard time understanding how any of those four players will help them next year. I assume Infante takes the place of Webb on the Atlanta farm, but that's not much of an upgrade. Lamb has no job, and is looking like a career utility infielder at this point. Nunez is fine, but nothing to write home about. Of the four, Rupe has the best shot at being useful, but he's far from being a sure thing at this point. Trade #3: Burrell/Giles/Barrett/Ashby for Gonzo/I-Rod/Santiago/Sanches. I actually think this was a great trade for both sides. Phoenix gets a huge upgrade in left field and behind the plate, and Kansas gets four players who all have big upsides and are all dirt cheap. My only problem with this deal is that it's yet another example of a trade that would never happen in reality. My goal is to make the BDBL mimic reality as closely as possible, and trades like this remind me that we're not even close to that point. Maybe that's not such a bad thing. Maybe this is the way reality should be. I don't know. All I know is that the Higuera Division just got a lot more interesting. I'm not a big fan of comparisons like this, but I'll do it anyway: Starting Four: Phoenix: Garcia, Zito, Appier, Pettitte Allentown: Johnson, Schilling, Oswalt, Miller BIG edge: Allentown Bullpen: Phoenix: Percial, Kline, Sullivan, Zimmerman Allentown: F.Rodriguez, Mesa, Smoltz, Plesac Slight edge: Phoenix Lineup: 1. E.Young (Phx) vs. Rollins/Kotsay (Aln) Edge: Aln 2. I-Rod (Phx) vs. Johnson (Aln) Edge: Phx 3. Abreu (Phx) vs. Martinez (Aln) Edge: Even 4. Gonzo (Phx) vs. Bonds (Aln) Edge: Aln 5. Nevin (Phx) vs. Ramirez (Aln) Edge: Even 6. Martinez (Phx) vs. Mueller/Fick (Aln) Edge: Even 7. Beltran (Phx) vs. Allen/Gutierrez (Aln) Edge: Phx 8. Cabrera (Phx) vs. Stinnett/Houston (Aln) Edge: Aln Offense: Slight edge: Allentown So overall, while the race is closer now, there's still no doubt that the Ridgebacks still have the team to beat. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-12-02 01:14 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Man...this board is dead... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridgebacks Double-A Posted 04-12-02 01:15 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I came here to post this (I wrote it in MS Word first) and Mike had already beat me to the punch. Regardless, here's my opinion. First, I’m shocked that Kansas seems to be packing it in while they’re only a game or so from the wildcard spot. Having said that, I think this trade vaults Phoenix into serious contention. Just for the heck of it, I did a comparison to Allentown (Phoenix player, then Allentown player): 1B: Tino Martinez vs Edgar Martinez – probably a slight edge to Edgar offensive- ly since he played in a tough hitters park. 2B: Eric Young vs Russ Johnson – Johnson put up some pretty decent numbers but he doesn’t have enough at bats to start all year. Assuming the replacement AB’s are weak, the advantage has to go to Young. 3B: Nevin vs Houston and Mueller – Houston and Mueller aren’t a bad platoon but Nevin had a super year. Give Nevin the nod. SS: Cabrera vs Rollins – I didn’t realize Cabrera had such a good season (.752 OPS). Rollins OPS is .743 and they both had about the same number of at bats. Call it even. C: Ivan Rodriguez vs Fick – Fick had a pretty good year for the Tigers (in a tough park) but I think Ivan wins this with his defense. RF: Abreu vs Manny Ramirez – Wow, there aren’t many RF’s that would rate over Manny but this one is close. Ramirez is a slightly better hitter but Abreu can run and is better defensively. Given Abreu’s platoon splits are pretty dramatic (.731 vs lefties, 1.012 vs righties) I’d probably give the advantage to Ramirez but it’s awfully close. CF: Beltran vs Kotsay – Beltran wins this one as Kotsay is pretty much a platoon player and needs a lot of help against lefties. LF: Luis Gonzalez vs Bonds – Another position (like RF) that SHOULD be clear cut but Gonzalez had a fantastic 2001. Still, edge here goes to Bonds. SP1: Freddy Garcia vs Randy Johnson – Not too many guys can match up with Johnson. Edge goes to Randy. SP2: Zito vs Schilling – This one’s tough. Schilling gives up a ton of homers but you can’t argue with his 2.98 ERA. Zito is a lefty who was actually tougher against righties last year which makes him tough to platoon against. If I had to choose between the 2, I’d probably take Schilling but he wins by a hair. SP3: Pettitte vs Oswalt – Geez, another lefty for Phoenix! Oswalt didn’t throw a ton of innings, but his control is spotless and he didn’t give up a lot of hits. Take away a few really bad starts from 2001 and his numbers would be SICK. Advantage, Oswalt. SP4: Appier vs Wade Miller – I go with Miller here. SP5: Hermanson vs Gagne – What happened to Hermanson last year (4.45 ERA)? Gagne wasn’t much better with a 4.45 ERA in LA. Call it even. Neither of these guys will see much time if these teams make the post-season anyway. Closer: Percival vs Felix Rodriguez – Very similar stats. Call it even though Rodriguez threw 23 more innings. Bullpen lefties: Kline and Mulholland vs Plesac and Dave Williams – Pretty similar. Call it even. Bullpen righties: Sullivan, Speier, Glover vs Mesa, Smoltz, Reed. Pretty close as well. I’d call this even. Allentown’s “Big Three” (Bonds, Ramirez, Martinez) are probably stronger than Luis Gonzalez, Abreu, Nevin but overall, Phoenix is stronger offensively (thanks to Beltran and I-Rod). Allentown seems to have the advantage in SP with Johnson and Oswalt holding solid advantages over Garcia and Pettitte. Bullpens are close with more depth in Phoenix. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FireAnt Double-A Posted 04-12-02 01:31 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay - I have almost no time to do any of this so hopefully I can get back here later and defend myself but for starters - "I assume Infante takes the place of Webb on the Atlanta farm, but that's not much of an upgrade." Not much of an upgrade, or you kinding me. Wasn't you Mike who said you could not find ANY INFORMATION anywhere on Webb?? I believe Infante, getting some very positive thoughts and a B- from Sickels, is a SIGNIFICANT improvement over Webb, as for as my farm team goes anyway. Cirillo is a free agent after this year and not exactly a hot commodity on the trade market. Farnsworth is no longer a "sure thing" with that broken foot. Next to Low Back injuries and "arm problem" there is no worse injury for a pitcher to have (in my professional opinion). Owners are not exactly giving up quality young pitching so taking a chance on Rupe while getting Nunez and Infante in the process is well worth it considering the only person that I gave up for next year is Farnsworth and I already stated my feelings on him. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- novamustangs Double-A Posted 04-12-02 01:52 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Heck, I might as well follow Gene with my reasoning. I deliberated very much over making the trade for Griffey, but what convinced me to do it was his present worth to my team and the upgrade over Pierre in CF. I guess I have to rely on eternal hope to make this trade worthwhile in the coming years. Schoeneweis wasn't pitching terribly well for me (except his 2 hitter after I traded him) and I have Kerry Robinson to fill in the void in CF since Griffey doesn't have too many ABs and Robinson is pretty much the same player as Pierre. So ultimately, yes it was a trade to help me win this year, but I still have some future hope from Griffey as well. Though I agree that he's nothing like he used to be. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mike S./Rocks Triple-A Posted 04-12-02 02:28 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- With this trade, the Rocks pen now includes Nen, Hoffman, and Farnsworth, who if kept next year would cost a total of as little as $9.1 million. Their combined numbers for this BDBL season: 220 IP, 3.03 ERA, 263/72 K/BB ratio, 24 HRs allowed. I don't expect quite as good of numbers for next year, but right now I basically have a mix between Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens in my bullpen to use whenever I want. Add Mike Buddie (3.89 ERA in 41.2 IP om 2001) and lefty specialist Rich Rodriguez (4.15 ERA in 39.0 IP overall, .189/.247/.257 vs. lefties in 2001) and I'll put the Rocks bullpen up against anyone's in the BDBL right now. Cleveland's pen next year will again be about as good as they come, with Nen, Hoffman, Farnsworth (depending on injury), Buddie (early 2002 success in Milwaukee), and Orioles closer Jorge Julio added to the mix. As for the third base spot -- Lamb had used up 175 of his 284 ABs already, while producing better than expected (.309/.371.423). Cirillo had slightly better real numbers than that (.313/.364/.473) last year, and has 528 ABs. So I can now expect production from 3B all year. And if I've given up a future utility infielder in Lamb, as the Commish says, then no loss. Atlanta can assume that risk at the price of a guy who wasn't going to be aroud next year. As for Rupe/Infante/Nunez -- neither Nunez nor Rupe had pitched an inning for the Rocks this year. Infante probably wouldn't have displaced Alex Gonzalez the Elder on the Rocks squad anytime in the next couple years. Maybe he can displace Alex Gonzalez the Lesser on Atlanta. Rupe was brilliant in his real-life season debut this year, so I may regret giving him up. But then again, he's a Devil Ray, so Atlanta may regret taking him. The second part of the deal basically comes down to Rupe vs. Farnsworth, with risk attached both ways. Either one of us could regret giving up the guy we gave up, and either one of us could really make out. Infante/Nunez are fliers for farther down the road than I want to look. Of all the players I've traded, I'll probably regret losing Halladay the most. I gave up Pineiro as well, but he's staying in the pen and if that remains, then Hoffman will do just as well in that position for me. I also gained Matt Lawton and JT Snow in that trade, and check out what Lawton's doing. I could end up very happy with him. Based on who will meaningfully contribute on rosters next year: Rocks lose: Halladay, Pineiro, Rupe (?) Rocks gain: Hoffman, Farnsworth (?), Lawton, Snow (?) Rocks get to use this year only: Lieber, Cirillo Rocks lose long-term: Nunez, Infante, Lamb I don't think it will look so bad in the long run. I think the keepers I get are right around $10 mil, whereas the three pitchers I gave up will be about $2.5 or $3 mil if kept. That's the biggest regret. The Rocks might not win their division, but we could win it. We'll keep the heat on Akron. Could a .500 record win the division after the Hrbek housed three 90-win teams last year? Fine with me if it's the Rocks! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- fmimes Double-A Posted 04-12-02 02:31 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm glad Phoenix made the move to make things really interesting the rest of the way. I'm just glad neither team is in the Ozzie League right now. Although Allentown has the edge, I put on my rose-colored hindsight glasses and looked at two trades Phoenix made last year. I know this will start one of those infinite regression "yeah, but..." discussions, but what the heck. 1) Phoenix deals Chan Ho Park for Bill Mueller, Doug Mirabelli and Jack Cust. 2) Phoenix deals Scott Schoenweis for a #3 rookie pick and John Patterson. Chan Ho Park would make an awesome addition to the Phoenix arsenal and instead of ripping off the Mimes (doesn't everyone?) for a #3 rookie and Danys Baez, they chose John Patterson. Add Park and Baez to this team of all-stars and Phoenix becomes the odds on favorite to win it all in 2002. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mike S./Rocks Triple-A Posted 04-12-02 02:36 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As for the other trades ... As stated above, I'm surprised Kansas has packed it in. But I know what it is like to be third in a three-team race. 91 wins last year got me nothing. That's not to say the Law Dogs would have finished third, but now it doesn't matter. There's no race for the wild card spot in the Eck now. Allentown and Phoenix will be in the playoffs. Then it's either Villanova or New York as the Person winner (edge to Nova) and either Akron or Cleveland as the Hrbek winner (edge to Akron, but several head-to-head matchups remain). All that matters is the seven-game first-round playoff series between Allentown and Phoenix. Then the winner of that will be miraculously upset by the Cinderella Hrbek Division winner, either Akron or Cleveland (who will have defeated Villanova in the other first-round matchup in seven games). So really, the other trade doesn't matter because the Hrbek Division winner is destined for the BDBL World Series. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- novamustangs Double-A Posted 04-12-02 02:45 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mike, I wouldn't count Nova out from "upsetting" Akron or Cleveland in the first series considering we just took 2 from Akron on the back of 2 straight 2 hitters (at Arkon too). Of course I don't mean to even count out NY from winning the division .... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mike S./Rocks Triple-A Posted 04-12-02 02:47 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I won't count out Nova, but I'm sticking with the Hrbek! It's the whoever-beats- me-better-go-on-to-become-champion theory! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- R˙che High-A Posted 04-12-02 03:02 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm glad my Hrbek division companion is so confident in our teams, but I'm not even looking that far ahead. My goal is to finally get three games over .500! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-12-02 04:09 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If nothing else, it's good to see that the Schilling trade didn't diminish the hopes of other Eck League teams as I thought it would (though I wonder if that trade had something to do with the Law Dogs bowing out so early.) In talking to a lot of different owners this past chapter, it seems that there are only ten or eleven teams that are still looking to compete this year. That's pretty bad when you consider that eight of us will make the playoffs, and it's only April 12th! I'm working along with our League Counsel on a way to stem stars-for-prospects trades going forward, and I think we've come up with a pretty good plan to do so, thanks in part to a suggestion from Chris Luhning. I'll be unveiling this new proposal soon, at which time we'll have to vote on it, as it will require a good deal of work on my part. P.S. - Gene, my statement was mostly just sour grapes that I lost out on the "Kyle Farnsworth Sweepstakes." I am about as far away from being an Omar Infante fan as one could possibly be, and I think he'll have as much of an impact on the future of your franchise as Alan Webb, which is why I made that statement. But I could be wrong, and he could turn out to be Omar Vizquel. In which case, I take it back. Still, I'd take Grady Sizemore (or Scott Chiasson) and Michael Aubrey over Omar any day. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LawDogs Double-A Posted 04-12-02 08:04 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes, the Law Dogs did bow out of the playoff race this year based on the the teams in my division dramatically improving there teams. I felt that it was just a matter of time before Scot's Predators widened the gap. If I had some young talent to trade I would of tried to obtain 1 or 2 more starting pitchers, but unfortunately my farm system is young and unproven. Trust me I didn't want to make this deal. I really enjoyed having Gonzalez on my team and would love to have kept him for a few more years, but based on our rules I had to get something for him. I didn't want to finish out of the playoffs and lose my players who are in the last year of their contracts. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-13-02 12:04 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rupe's second start: 5 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. ERA: 6.00. It's amazing how quickly pitchers can go from "bargain ace" to "roster filler" at this time of the year (and vice-versa.) With Cleveland and Stamford capital- izing on one good start from Rupe and Fogg, I'm thinking I can get an MVP candidate for Brett Tomko or Paul Wilson right about now... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FireAnt Double-A Posted 04-13-02 12:55 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- How did I know that when I logged on today, Mike would have posted Rupe's line from last night?? You know how I knew........because in Mike's mind the only good trades are the trades that he makes. God forbid if he makes you an offer on a player that HE is interested in and you decide to go a different direction and decline his offer. It is pretty easy to sit back and criticize everyone when your team has the best record in the BDBL. The big thing that everyone who has commented on the above trades is forgetting. Trading is supposed to be FUN. I know the message board is meant to be fun (and believe I don't lose sleep over anything posted here) but if people continue to ridicule those that are at least "trying" to do things then one of two things is going to happen: 1. People are going to be afraid to making trades for fear of all the criti- cizism OR 2. People are going to make ridiculous trades just to get other people excited. Remember everyone - trading is supposed to be fun. So with that I say "Go Zoots!!!" And DAMN IT - who wants HAMPTON. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-13-02 04:24 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "because in Mike's mind the only good trades are the trades that he makes." That has to be the smartest thing I've read on this board in quite some time - and, I might add, very accurate. If only teams limited their trading activities to the Cowtippers only, there would be so much parity in the BDBL it would resemble the NFL. (By the way, that's sarcasm.)