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March 29, 2002 How Does Your Farm Rate? One of the most enjoyable aspects of the BDBL, in my opinion at least, is cultivating the farm team. There's nothing I enjoy more than finding a gold nugget in a murky stream before anyone else notices, then watching my prized prospects develop into tomorrow's superstars. (Then, of course, I trade them all away in the delusional pursuit of a championship that is clearly never going to come to Salem...but that's a topic for another time.) Evaluating prospects is one of the toughest things to do in all of baseball (at least, from the management side of the desk.) In order to predict future greatness for any raw prospect, you need to combine knowledge of raw tools, performance, past history and - perhaps most of all - luck. Plenty of top prospects have disappeared into obscurity due to fluke injuries or other mishaps that happen often at the lower levels. Plenty of other prospects slipped under the radar of every talent evaluator in the land before bursting onto the scene years later and becoming perennial all-stars. To get an idea of just how tough this is, just take a look at Baseball America's first Top-100 list, published in 1990. There are several good players in their top-10, including John Olerud (#3), Juan Gonzalez (#4), Todd Zeile (#7), Greg Vaughn (#9) and Jose Offerman (#10). But for every one of them, there's another player who has failed to fulfill his potential, including Steve Avery (#1), Ben McDonald (#2), Sandy Alomar (#5), Kiki Jones (#6) and Greg Anthony (#8). As you scroll down the list, you see more unusual names. Willie Banks (#13), Mike Harkey (#14), Roger Salkeld (#16) and Pat Combs (#20) are all listed in the top 20. Kevin Appier (#86) and Kevin Tapani (#88) are both listed in the bottom 20. Ty Griffin (#22), Wes Chamberlain (#25), Reggie Jefferson (#28), Bob Hamelin (#31) and Braulio Castillo (#34) are all listed ahead of Moises Alou (#37), Travis Fryman (#39), Tino Martinez (#40), Larry Walker (#42), Mo Vaughn (#76) and Bernie Williams (#77). Prospect evaluation is also very personal and subjective. One man's "Future Cy Young" could be another man's "Future Anthony Young." Take Stamford shortstop Brandon Phillips, for example. Phillips is ranked between #15 and #38 by John Sickels, StrikeThree.com, Baseball Prospectus, Top Prospect Alert and Baseball America. But The Sporting News doesn't even consider Phillips to be a top-100 prospect, and TeamOne Baseball ranks Phillips as the #5 prospect in all of baseball! Another example is Kentucky catcher Joe Mauer, who is ranked #7 overall by Baseball America, but didn't even make the top-100 cut for TeamOne. At this time of the year, nearly every major baseball publication on the planet has posted a top prospects list, compiled using their own opinions and methods of evaluation. Baseball America and TeamOne tend to focus on raw tools and the assessments of scouts, while John Sickels and StrikeThree.com place a heavy emphasis on performance and Sabrmetrics (though both also do their own scouting as well.) There is no right answer, and for the most part, all of these publications do equally well (or equally poorly) in their ability to predict the future. Recently, I asked you all to participate in the first-annual "BDBL Survivor Prospects" challenge. You can see the final results of that challenge here and compare our evaluations to the experts. What do the experts think of our own BDBL farm teams? In order to find out, I've combined the opinions of Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, TeamOne Baseball, Top Prospect Alert and The Sporting News to form the table you see below. I awarded 100 points to the top prospect in each ranking, 99 points for the #2 prospect, and so on down each list. The numbers you see in the columns below correspond to the total number of these points awarded from each source along with their respective rankings in parentheses. I then combined the point totals from these rankings to give us an overall picture of how the "experts" view our farm systems (in the "Total" column.)
A team-by-team breakdown: #1 - CHICAGO BLACK SOX Farm Team: Josh Beckett (1), Mark Prior (5), Josh Hamilton (27), Hee-Seop Choi (31), Bobby Hill (40), Ty Howington (49), David Kelton (73), Adam Johnson (77), Ryan Ludwick (110), Billy Hall (116), Luis Montanez (128), Corey Smith (142), Adam Everett (N/R), Willie Harris (N/R), Jason Standridge (N/R) Comments: In his new "Historical Baseball Abstract," Bill James said: "It has been obvious for twenty years that this is a stupid, stupid gamble, to use a first-round pick for a high school pitcher." While that may be true in general, the Black Sox have certainly enjoyed a great deal of success with high school pitchers over the years. Beckett was acquired by Chicago while he was still in high school, and is now the #1 prospect in baseball, earning 698 total points out of a possible 700. Chicago tends to focus a great deal on high school talent, drafting Howington, Hall, Montanez and Smith just a year or two out of high school. The Black Sox have the top farm system in the BDBL thanks to three recent trades in which they acquired Prior, Choi, Hill and Johnson. When it comes to pitching prospects, Beckett and Prior are just about as sure as two sure-thing pitchers can get. But then again, so were former Black Sox pitchers Rick Ankiel and Paul Wilson. #2 - LOS ALTOS UNDERTAKERS Farm Team: Carlos Pena (4), Rafael Soriano (23), Jon Rauch (32), Gabe Gross (39), Brett Myers (41), Jason Lane (46), John Buck (50), Ken Harvey (66), Lyle Overbay (116), Richard Stahl (177), Rickie Weeks (N/R) Comments: Believe it or not, Pena was a fourth round selection in our 2000 draft. Among the many players drafted ahead of him were Luke Wilcox, Joseph Delgado, Brian Fuentes, Carlos Paredes, Saul Rivera, Buddy Yen, Rico Washington, Tom Wilson and Carlos Mendez. Gross was the highest-ranked player available in this year's farm draft, but Los Altos was able to snag him with the sixth pick in the draft. Along with Buck, the Undertakers snagged two top-50 picks in that draft - something no other team can claim (unless you count Allentown, who turned one of their picks into a top-50 pick through trade.) Soriano, Harvey and Overbay were all acquired via trade prior to Opening Day this year. It isn't often that you see a contending team acquire three top prospects via trade. Usually, it's the other way around! #3 - SOUTH CAROLINA SEA CATS Farm Team: Hank Blalock (2), Nick Johnson (6), Jose Reyes (36), Josh Phelps (37), Antonio Perez (56), Nate Cornejo (57), J.R. House (64), Kevin Mench (93), Jason Botts (N/R), Justin Duchscherer (N/R), Mike Myers (N/R), Jose Mieses (N/R), Corey Thurman (N/R) Comments: If the BDBL waited until mid-February to hold our farm draft, as has been recently proposed, there's a good chance the Sea Cats would not own Hank Blalock today. Blalock was a relative unknown a year ago, and only John Sickels (whose book doesn't hit the stands until well after our draft) was touting him as a top-50 prospect. South Carolina snagged him in the third round of the 2001 farm draft, behind such luminaries as Toe Nash, Nelson Figueroa, Shane Loux, Brad Baker, Christian Parra, Clint Weibl and Andy VanHekken. He's not only the #2 prospect in baseball, but an early favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year. Johnson, Cornejo and Perez were all acquired via trade since the end of last season. #4 - STAMFORD ZOOTS Farm Team: Juan Cruz (7), Adrian Gonzalez (16), Brandon Phillips (22), Kenny Baugh (44), Jayson Werth (79), Ryan Christianson (87), Chris Nageotte (140), Mike Jones (155), Shin-Soo Choo (163), Eric Byrnes (169), Bill Ortega (171), Julian Benavidez (N/R), Brandon Berger (N/R), Jesus Cota (N/R), Jeff DaVanon (N/R), Corky Miller (N/R) Comments: The Zoots drew high marks from two very different sources: Sickels, who ranked the Zoots #1, and TeamOne, who ranked them #2. Sickels, who tends to focus on performance over tools, ranked five Zoots players in the top 35. TeamOne, who tend to focus on tools over performance, ranked five Zoots players in their top 51. Despite the disadvantage of consistently having one of the lowest picks in both the draft and free agent acquisition process, the Zoots have managed to maintain a quality farm. Two of the Zoots' top-25 players - Gonzalez and Phillips - were picked up in the middle of last season as farm free agents (as was Nate Cornejo, the #27 prospect in baseball, and Danny Wright, who probably would have ranked in the top 75 if he were still eligible) while everyone else was apparently asleep at the wheel. Another top-50 prospect, Baugh, was drafted with a pick that was acquired at the dirt-cheap expense of Jose Macias. #5 - NEW MILFORD BLAZERS Farm Team: Sean Burroughs (3), Austin Kearns (9), Mike Cuddyer (15), Mark Phillips (89), Corey Patterson (95), Erick Almonte (110), Kenny Kelly (114), Eric Valent (137), Ramon Vazquez (158), Brad Cresse (N/R), Craig Anderson (N/R), Mike Gosling (N/R), Brian Tallet (N/R) Comments: You'd think at the very least I would get a "thank you" card from the Blazers organization every Christmas. If not for the Salem Cowtippers, the Blazers' future would look as bleak as their present. This team's franchise player, Burroughs, came from the Cowtippers, as did Kearns, Valent, Vazquez and Cresse. And Phillips was drafted with my advice. But do I get any gratitude for this? Nooooo. All I get is snubbed by the Blazers in the Manager and GM of the Year balloting every year. That's what you get for 20 years of friendship. Four of the five top-100 prospects in the Blazers farm system came to the team via trade - a byproduct of finishing with over 300 losses in the past three years. Should the Blazers stick with their current roster, they could field an $800,000 lineup in a couple of years that will out-perform some $40 million lineups. #6 - NEW YORK KNIGHTS Farm Team: Wilson Betemit (8), Marlon Byrd (13), Juan Rivera (43), Kazuhisa Ishii (72), Brad Thomas (88), Ricardo Rodriguez (101), Joe Torres (#122), Jeff Baker (N/R), Mike Rivera (N/R) Comments: Ten months ago, Chris Schultheis inherited a farm team that included a dead guy (Brian Cole.) Today, the Knights boast the sixth-best farm in the BDBL. They'd rank even higher if Ishii (who I think will win the NL Rookie of the Year) were included on all six lists, and if Baker were eligible to be ranked. Rivera, who is one of the few power-hitting catching prospects in baseball (33 homers at Double-A) was a shocking omission from all six lists. Of the six players in the top-101 for this franchise, only one (Betemit) was inherited from the previous regime. #7 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SLYME Farm Team: Dennis Tankersley (10), Jake Peavy (19), Ryan Anderson (24), Christian Guerrero (118), Joe Thurston (125), Tony Pluta (135), Jung Bong (145), So Taguchi (N/R), Joe Thurston (N/R), Ricardo Aramboles (N/R), Horacio Ramirez (N/R), Wilfredo Rodriguez (N/R) Comments: The Slyme farm is loaded with pitching prospects, each bringing with them their own level of risk. Tankersley was well on his way to a Roy Oswalt type of season in 2002, but his velocity is way down this spring, prompting questions about an injury. Anderson will miss the entire season for the second year in a row due to a torn labrum. Aramboles is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Bong, Pluta and Ramirez have yet to pitch above A-ball. And Rodriguez has taken two steps backward for every step forward over the past two years. They say that in order to find one decent pitching prospect you have to draft an abundance of them and hope that one fulfills his potential. That one pearl in a bed of oysters could be Peavy, who has "future ace" written all over him. Southern Cal's position prospects aren't much less risky than their pitching prospects. Guerrero's biggest asset is that he's Vladimir's cousin, Thurston looks like a future utility infielder at this point, and Taguchi wasn't exactly dominating over in Japan. #8 - MARLBORO HAMMERHEADS Farm Team: Drew Henson (21), Corwin Malone (38), Carlos Zambrano (55), Jimmy Journell (58), Orlando Hudson (63), Eric Munson (99), Brad Lidge (107), Miguel Olivo (113), Bobby Jenks (135) Comments: The Hammerheads farm is filled with high-talent/high-risk players. Henson has about as much raw power as any prospect in the game, but has yet to display the plate discipline needed to advance to the higher levels. At this point, he's looking a lot like a right-handed Russ Branyan. Malone has some of the best raw stuff of any left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, but has the opposite problem as Henson: too many walks. Lidge has nastier stuff than Malone, but has thrown barely 100 innings in four minor league seasons due to serious injuries. Five of the Hammerheads' nine ranked prospects are pitchers, which makes them, by definition, risky. Aside from Henson, the other three position players - Hudson, Munson and Olivo - are nice prospects, but are unlikely to become all-stars. #9 - ALLENTOWN RIDGEBACKS Farm Team: Chin-Feng Chen (35), Kelly Johnson (45), Abraham Nunez (62), Morgan Ensberg (67), Seung Song (69), Brad Wilkerson (70), John Stephens (80), Vernon Wells (97), Wily Aybar (124), Jesse Foppert (125), Tim Raines, Jr. (N/R), Allen Baxter (N/R), Felix Diaz (N/R) Comments: As if it's not depressing enough to look at the Ridgebacks' current major league roster, they also have a top-ten farm system as well. The good news for the rest of us is that none of their prospects ranks higher than 35th (and he probably ranks much lower now after a move to first base.) The bad news is that the Ridgebacks still have an awful lot of ammo if they do decide to load up even more before the post-season. Four of their eight top 100 prospects will be wearing Ridgebacks uniforms as early as next season: Ensberg, Wilkerson, Stephens and Wells. Johnson should step up into the top 50 next year, and Foppert has the ability to move quickly as well. #10 - SALEM COWTIPPERS Farm Team: Mark Teixeira (12), Chris Snelling (17), Casey Kotchman (52), Chris Burke (75), Grady Sizemore (100), Tim Hummel (110), Bobby Brownlie (N/R), Jeff Francis (N/R), B.J. Upton (N/R), Michael Aubrey (N/R), Tim Spooneybarger (N/R), Scott Chiasson (N/R), Bobby Seay (N/R) Comments: Four of Salem's ten farm players are ineligible for these rankings because they're still amateurs. Of course, the question of where those players would rank if they were eligible has been a hot topic all year. Last year, I stated that Teixeira would rank in the top ten if he were eligible and I was ridiculed as usual. Yet that's exactly where he ended up on three of our six expert lists. This year, my assertion that Kotchman belongs in the top ten has drawn the same amount of ridicule. Assuming he's healthy (which is never a given), he can make me look like Miss Cleo again at this time next year. Snelling, Brownlie and possibly Burke all have top-ten potential as well if they can all stay healthy - and as we've already seen this spring, that has always been a big "if" when it comes to Salem prospects. Spooneybarger and Chiasson were victims of the great anti-reliever bias among prospect evaluators, yet both could be valuable contributors to the 'Tippers as early as next season. #11 - ATLANTA FIRE ANTS Farm Team: Nick Neugebauer (14), Brandon Claussen (26), Xavier Nady (53), Wily Mo Pena (86), Jake Gautreau (148), Ben Diggins (N/R), Alex Graman (N/R), Alan Webb (N/R) Comments: Like the Blazers, the Fire Ants' farm director should also have the Salem Cowtippers on his Christmas list. Three of Atlanta's five ranked prospects came from Salem in exchange for half a season of free-agent-to-be Chuck Knoblauch, a draft pick Atlanta couldn't have used anyway and journeyman Shane Reynolds. Atlanta's farm includes two power arms and two power bats. They'd be better off dumping the rest and recycling them with some top amateur talent. I couldn't even find any information on Webb, who's been carried on this franchise's farm team since they were called the Oakville Marauders! #12 - MANCHESTER IRISH REBELS Farm Team: Joe Borchard (11), Miguel Cabrera (48), Aaron Heilman (59), Luis Terrero (128), Vince Faison (N/R), Eric Valent (N/R), Chris Bootcheck (N/R), Mike Nannini (N/R), Brian Sager (N/R) Comments: The one commonality among all of the Irish Rebels hitting prospects is that they all strike out - a lot. Borchard (158 K's in 515 AB's), Cabrera (76 in 422), Terrero (96 in 348 with only 7 walks), Faison (129 in 415) and Valent (105 in 448) are all swing-from-the-heels sluggers. That isn't always a bad thing when it comes to prospects, but it usually isn't good. On the pitching side, Heilman and Bootcheck are both experienced college pitchers who should move quickly and Nannini is facing a make-or-break year at Double-A. #13 - AKRON RYCHE Farm Team: Carlos Hernandez (20), Nic Jackson (81), Bobby Bradley (91), Ben Broussard (93), Jamal Strong (107), J.D. Martin (149), Ben Howard (152), Denny Bautista (163), Nate McLouth (166), David Espinosa (N/R), Hong-Chi Kuo (N/R) Comments: If there's one thing the Akron Ryche never have to worry about, it's having enough pitching. At the major league level, they've got Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder all signed through 2005. Hernandez should join that group next season, giving them two lefties and two righties - all of whom are potential all-stars. Howard, Bautista and Kuo are three of the hardest throwers in the minor leagues, while Bradley and Martin are junkballers. All are highly-regarded. Offensively, Jackson has the tools to become one of the elite prospects in the game, and could be among the top twenty next year. Strong provides rare leadoff skills and Broussard should be a masher if he can find a way to squeeze himself into a loaded Reds outfield. #14 - LITCHFIELD LIGHTNING Farm Team: Jerome Williams (28), Kurt Ainsworth (47), Brett Evert (67), Justin Miller (132), Jody Gerut (N/R), Pascual Matos (N/R), Jorge Toca (N/R), Luke Wilcox (N/R), Rick Bauer (N/R), Saul Rivera (N/R), T.J. Tucker (N/R) Comments: Usually, if you find yourself looking up the names of prospects on a farm because you have no idea who they are, it's a bad sign. The Lightning have so many of these players that it took me longer to write these comments than it has for any other team. Suffice it to say that most of these guys are career "Quadruple-A" minor leaguers in their late 20's and early 30's who are unlikely to ever make much of an impact on the Lightning roster. Neither Matos, Wilcox nor Toca warranted a mention in the 2002 Minor League Notebook, which speaks volumes about them. Bauer and Rivera earned a "C" rating by Sickels, and Tucker earned a "C+". As apathetic as Geisel is about his major league roster, he's downright neglectful toward his farm team. If DSS busts through the doors of the Lightning front office and takes their farm team away from them, it wouldn't surprise me at all. On the plus side, Litchfield has a trio of good pitching prospects who should help relatively soon. The downside to that is that three new spots will soon be opening on the Lightning farm, which only opens the door to more neglect. #15 - PHOENIX PREDATORS Farm Team: Jack Cust (33), Chin-Hui Tsao (60), Tony Blanco (84), Eric Hinske (93), Ben Christensen (155), Ryan Gripp (N/R), Paxton Crawford (N/R), Joel Guzman (N/R), John Patterson (N/R), Matt Riley (N/R), Jorge Vazquez (N/R) Comments: With the graduations of Barry Zito and Chris George, the Predators farm is looking a little thin these days, but there are still plenty of quality prospects here with the potential to help out the big club sooner rather than later. Cust and Hinske will become minimum-wage bargains for the Predators immediately, and both are capable of earning a number of votes for Rookie of the Year this season. All of the Predators' top pitching prospects are battling back from injuries. Tsao, Christensen, Patterson and Riley all missed most - and in some cases all - of last season. It wasn't long ago, however, that all of these guys were considered top prospects, so it's conceivable that they could all bounce back. #16 - KANSAS LAW DOGS Farm Team: Angel Berroa (25), John Ford-Griffin (85), Matt Belisle (90), Gavin Floyd (121), Ramon Santiago (147), Bobby Crosby (N/R), Scott Hairston (N/R), David Wright (N/R), Colt Griffin (N/R), Mike MacDougal (N/R), Juan Rincon (N/R), Brian Sanches (N/R), Kyle Snyder (N/R), Justin Wayne (N/R) Comments: The Law Dogs have several players (Griffin, Floyd, Crosby, Wright and Griffin) who could all shoot quickly up these rankings this summer. All five were drafted in last summer's MLB amateur draft, and all except Wright were drafted in the first round. Berroa looks like he's snagged the starting shortstop job from Neifi "Gee, I Guess I Really Can't Hit at Low Altitude" Perez. Belisle could get a bullpen job with Atlanta by mid-summer. Hairston was probably the best prospect in the Orioles system (which doesn't say a whole lot, I realize), so of course, he was traded. He'll now battle Tim Hummel for the title of "Ray Durham's Successor" in Chicago. #17 - KENTUCKY FOX Farm Team: Joe Mauer (34), Jimmy Gobble (77), Marcus Thames (83), Joaquin Benoit (109), Will Smith (N/R), Jovanny Cedeno (N/R), Eric Cyr (N/R), John Lackey (N/R), Andy Pratt (N/R), Billy Sylvester (N/R) Comments: There's quite a divergence of opinion on Mauer, who was ranked as high as 7th (by Baseball America), yet didn't make TeamOne's top 100 list. Given his outstanding power and his performance in 32 Rookie-level games last season, I'd say he deserves to be ranked closer to #7 than he does to #101. Overall, he ranks #34, and that seems about right for now. Thames put together a monster season in his second go-around at Double-A, but given his age and chances of playing for the Yankees any time in the near future, he's looking a lot like Ricky Ledee II. Eric "She Told Me She Was Eighteen" Cyr has a great arm, but has to learn to stay away from airplane bathrooms. Sylvester (who I assume has no relation to his manager) can touch 100 mph on the radar gun, but has to learn how to control it. #18 - VILLANOVA MUSTANGS Farm Team: Carl Crawford (30), Adam Wainwright (51), Garrett Gentry (106), Adrian Burnside (N/R), Alex Herrera (N/R), Kevin Hodges (N/R), Satoru Komiyama (N/R), Doug Nickle (N/R), Clint Weibl (N/R) Comments: The farm team hasn't been a top priority for the Mustangs since Tony Chamra took over in late 2000. Crawford, Wainwright and Juan Pierre are the only three farm players Villanova has acquired in trade over the past year and a half, and two farm drafts and ten free agent pick-ups have yielded no top-100 prospects. Gentry is now out for the year after shoulder surgery, leaving this farm with just two active players who are ranked by any of our six expert sources. #19 - GREAT LAKES SPHINX Farm Team: Justin Morneau (18), Ed Rogers (137), Milton Bradley (161), Wes Anderson (166), Gookie Dawkins (N/R), Tomas de la Rosa (N/R), Ross Gload (N/R), Joe Lawrence (N/R), Lance Niekro (N/R), Brad Baker (N/R), Craig House (N/R), Shane Loux (N/R) Comments: The Sphinx are another franchise that hasn't placed a lot of emphasis on their farm system over the years. They have just one prospect in the top-100, and have had only four top-100 prospects (Pat Burrell, Felipe Lopez, Morneau and Adam Wainwright) in franchise history. Morneau would have had far greater value had he remained at catcher. As a first baseman, he'll have to maintain the success he enjoyed at Low-A last year in order to justify his #18 ranking. The fact that Rogers (who has become a running joke at Baseball America) is now two years older than he claimed to be makes him even less of a prospect than he was before. Bradley has apparently won the center field job for Cleveland, so he could help the Sphinx next year. Anderson and Dawkins have the talent to become this franchise's fifth and sixth top-100 prospects by this time next year. #20 - MADISON FIGHTING MIMES Farm Team: Joe Crede (65), Esteban German (76), Francisco Rodriguez (96), Chris Narveson (161), Jared Abruzzo (N/R), Enrique Cruz (N/R), Dave Krynzel (N/R), Dustan Mohr (N/R), Gustavo Chacin (N/R) Comments: Two years ago, the Madison Fighting Mimes had the 5th-best farm system in the BDBL. Last year, Madison dropped to #13. Now, they're at #20 with little hope of turning it around. How did this happen? Crede dropped from #22 last year to #65 this year after having what many considered to be a disappointing year at Triple-A, and every other top-100 Mimes prospect from two years ago (Vernon Wells, A.J. Burnett, Abraham Nunez, Jayson Werth, Danys Baez, Jason Romano, Adam Everett and Kats Sasaki) has either been traded, released or has graduated to the Mimes roster. In case you're wondering, if Madison hadn't traded Hee-Seop Choi, Adam Johnson and Dewon Brazelton earlier this year, they'd rank 12th with 1,116 points. #21 - BEAR COUNTRY JAMBOREE Farm Team: Boof Bonser (29), Tim Raines, Jr. (145), Jason Hart (N/R), Hideki Matsui (N/R), Pablo Ozuna (N/R), Matt Guerrier (N/R), Ryo Kumagai (N/R), Blaine Neal (N/R), Chad Paronto (N/R), Scott Sobkowiak (N/R) Comments: Searching for a way to get a leg up on the competition, the Jamboree scouting department has delved deeply into the Japanese market. Matsui (a.k.a. "Godzilla") hasn't even decided yet whether he wants to leave Japan, but in case he does, Bear Country has locked in sole negotiating rights to the player who is probably the best hitter in Japan (not named Tuffy Rhodes.) Matsui (a 28-year-old outfielder) combines great power with speed and plate discipline, and would probably hit 30 homers a year if he did cross the Pacific. Kumagai is a 22-year-old reliever who came to the U.S. this winter straight out of college. He's a submarine-style pitcher who didn't allow a run in 47 innings his senior year in college, and compiled an ERA of 0.91 in four college seasons. If you're going to pick two players from the Japan leagues, you'd be hard-pressed to find two better players than that. #22 - ARIZONA HEAT Farm Team: Dewon Brazelton (61), Mike Restovich (74), Jason Jennings (114), Gary Burnham (N/R), Alex Cabrera (N/R), Victor Alvarez (N/R), Jeff Austin (N/R), Mike Bynum (N/R), Tim Christman (N/R), Brian Fuentes (N/R), Damian Moss (N/R), Billy Traber (N/R) Comments: Brazelton, Restovich and Jennings should all see a cup of coffee this season, leaving this farm club without much to crow about next year. Of the Heat prospects who are not rated, only Traber has a chance to break the top-100 next season - and his ceiling is a #4 starter. Of the three ranked prospects, Brazelton has the best chance to become a franchise player for the Heat. He is ranked 61st in baseball, and as high as #31 (by Sickels) despite not having thrown a single professional pitch yet. Restovich could use a full year of Triple-A, but he could be rushed to the big leagues if needed. Jennings looks like he lost the battle to become the #5 pitcher for Colorado out of spring training, but those things tend to change quickly. Austin could also see some time in the big leagues this summer. #23 - GILLETTE SWAMP RATS Farm Team: Mario Ramos (53), Eric Bedard (118), Toe Nash (N/R), Vinny Chulk (N/R), Adrian Hernandez (N/R), Ben Norris (N/R), Matt Smith (N/R) Comments: Hard to believe Toe Nash didn't make the ranking, isn't it? Mario Ramos has a good chance of becoming Jamie Moyer some day. Hopefully, it won't take Ramos as long to figure it all out as it took Moyer. If it weren't for Gillette's first round pick-up of Ramos this winter, this would be the worst farm system in BDBL history - and the contest wouldn't even be close. #24 - CLEVELAND ROCKS Farm Team: Omar Infante (71), Ben Johnson (127), Colby Lewis (153), Jim Deschaine (N/R), J.J. Johnson (N/R), Adam Morrissey (N/R), Ruben Salazar (N/R), Freddy Sanchez (N/R), Beau Hale (N/R), Jorge Julio (N/R), Andy VanHekken (N/R) Comments: Finally, trailing the league, just as they did last year and nearly did the year before (when they placed 20th), are the Rocks of Cleveland. It's hard to argue with Cleveland's philosophy of ignoring their farm. They've won 262 games over the past three years without a good farm. But I can't help but wonder how many more games could have been won if they had traded a few prospects along the way in exchange for an immediate boost or two. The Rocks lost a one game playoff in 1999 and another in 2000. They won 92 games last year and finished in third place. With a few key additions during any one of those seasons - the kind of additions that can only be made by a team with a good farm system - it's not hard to imagine at least two playoff appearances and possibly even greater success for this franchise. |