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December 18, 2003 Draft Day Preview
Every year at this time, I write an article for this page that previews the upcoming draft. In the past, I've used this forum to make ridiculous and inaccurate predictions about which players will be chosen by which teams - predictions that never come close to being true. This year, as you all know, is special. For the first time in the five year history of the BDBL, the method we will be using to select top free agents will not be a straightforward draft. Instead, we've adopted an auction style format that has caused a lot of excitement, a lot of anxiety, a lot of questions and even a bit of panic. What I hope to do with this year's article is answer some of those questions and alleviate some of that anxiety and panic. Since Cutdown Day of 2000, the BDBL has waited anxiously for the 2003 draft class. Never before have so many all-star-caliber players hit the free agent market all at once. This year's draft presents a rare opportunity for teams to rebuild like never before, and with the new auction format in place, any player can now be had by any team. The Big Questions Question #1: How much am I going to have to pay for these guys?
This is by far the most frequently asked question of the off-season. By my estimate, there is roughly $535 million in available salary cap money that can be spent in this draft. Roughly $506 million of that can theoretically be spent in the auction alone. At an average of more than $10 million per player, though, we know that figure is probably a bit too high. So, how much of this $535 million pie will be allocated to the auction? Only time will tell for sure, but we can venture a guess. This auction, like everything else in a free market, depends upon the good ol' Economics 101 theory of supply and demand. Among the 50 players on the block, the greatest supply can be found on the mound and in the outfield. Of course, that's also where the greatest demand lies as well. It's my guess that the top three outfielders (Bonds, Sosa and Guerrero) will be the highest-priced players in this auction and will each fetch more than $15 million. Bonds will likely be (and should be) the highest-paid player in the BDBL, and I would put the over/under on his 2003 salary at $17 million. The next tier of outfielders (Edmonds, Walker, Luis Gonzalez and Garrett Anderson) should go for between $7 and $14 million each. After that, there should be a steep decline in price, and I can even envision a bargain or two among the pool of Burks, Kotsay, Cameron, Grissom, Stewart, McLemore and Gant. Although the supply for pitchers is even greater than it is for outfielders, the demand is also far greater. As a result, you probably won't find many bargains in this group. Washburn, Maddux and Glavine should all fetch top-dollar (perhaps between $10m and $13m each.) There's a big talent dip to the next tier (Appier, Rueter, Valdes, Pettitte and Clemens), but because demand is so high for pitching, I can see each of those pitchers getting between $6m and $9m each. After that, there's another huge drop-off to the group of Trachsel, Burkett, Lieber, Yoshii, Neagle and Sele. You may see a bargain or two in this last group, but I wouldn't be surprised if each of these pitchers were overpaid. When you have a bushel of money to spend, the sand is flowing to the bottom of the hourglass, and you still don't have a pitching staff, panic has a nasty way of creating bidding wars over the most unlikely of players. By far, relief pitchers outnumber every other position in the draft. Since every team needs two or three good arms in the bullpen, however, demand is pretty high. With very rare exception (Matt Mantei in 2000, Robb Nen in 2001), relief pitchers usually don't fetch more than $5 million in the BDBL. The top tier of relievers (Dotel, Hammond, Karsay and Holmes) may fetch close to $5 million, but probably not more than that thanks to Rule 18.16 (which I'll cover later.) In the past, a $5 million investment for a relief pitcher may have been a wise one. But $10 million over two years is a whole other story. With rare exception, highly-paid relievers usually aren't rewarded with multi-year contracts in the BDBL. And in those rare times when they are (Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner and Troy Percival), those teams usually regret it. Holmes, Sauerbeck, Boehringer, Mesa, Hasegawa and Veres all fall into the second tier of relievers that should go for no more than $3m each. You may even see one or two of these guys at less than $2 million. If Robb Nen and/or Keith Foulke gets his walking papers on Cutdown Day, he should join that first tier of relievers. There are only two catchers (Rodriguez and Santiago) in this auction and nine teams that will be shopping for one. With that type of mismatch, expect both catchers to be overpriced. At first base, there are four available in the auction - including three all-stars - and four teams in search of a first baseman. It will be interesting to see how that game of musical chairs plays out. There aren't any second basemen in the auction as of yet, though Brett Boone, Roberto Alomar and Todd Walker are all expected to be cut. Nearly half (eleven) of the teams in the BDBL need a second baseman, so that should make for an interesting subplot to this auction. There are five third basemen available, and nine teams in need of a third baseman, but the quality at that position (Perry, Randa, Beltre, Batista and Nevin) makes it hard to believe there will be a bidding war for any of them. I'd expect each to fetch somewhere between $3 and $5 million. Lastly, for those looking for a shortstop, you'll only have one to choose from in this auction: Alex Cora, who had just 258 at-bats on the year. Let's say I'm right about all of these projections (there's a first time for everything, after all.) What do we get if we add up all of these projected salaries? About $324 million. Which means there will still be $211 million left to fill the remaining 261 open roster spots in the draft. That seems about right to me. But then again, this is all just a guess. We won't know for sure until January 12th. Question: What is Rule 18.16, and how will it affect the prices in this auction? Since we passed Rule 18.16, I've become a big, big fan of this rule. It is probably the most interesting rule this league has ever instituted because it adds so many layers of complexity and strategy to our game all with one simple rule. Rule 18.16 states that if a player's initial salary exceeds $5 million, he must be signed to at least a one year contract at the end of the season. What does this mean in terms of this auction? For certain players, it will mean a slight deflation in salary. In past years, teams wouldn't think twice about selecting someone like Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Larry Walker or Roger Clemens in the first round. They simply paid the $10 million rental fee, enjoyed a year's worth of production, then unloaded them at year's end (or, more often, traded them away mid-season.) Not anymore. For example, there's no doubt that Glavine is worth $10 million based on last season's numbers and the dearth of quality pitching. But the big question is: will Glavine be worth $10 million in 2004 at the age of 37? Does Maddux have another good year left in his 37-year-old arm? How about Clemens and his 40-year-old arm? Even Bonds, as extraordinary as he is, is no lock to continue producing at age 38. Odds are, he'll probably have another great season, but will it be a season worthy of a $15 million-plus salary? Ivan Rodriguez, a catcher who's now on the wrong side of 30, has history and a slew of injuries going against him as well. Larry Walker will be 36, is constantly battling injuries, and hasn't had 500 at-bats in a season since 1997. How much will he be worth a year from now - especially if he's playing outside of Colorado? Then there are the players like Chris Hammond, Scott Spiezio, Herbert Perry, Marquis Grissom, Darren Holmes, Kirk Rueter and Masato Yoshii. Every one of them is worthy of a salary of at least $5.5 million based on last year's numbers. But these guys all came out of nowhere last year. Have they turned a corner in their careers, or are they merely just one-year wonders? Imagine paying $6 million for the 2002 version of Marquis Grissom and paying the same amount for the 2001 version a year from now. Remember that, unlike players with initial salaries of $5 million or less, these players cannot simply be released with a penalty at the end of the season. You are stuck with them, for better or worse. How can anyone possibly look into the future of a player in the twilight of his career and determine how much that player will be worth? Welcome to the world of a big league GM! What's the solution to this problem? One way is to determine what you feel a player is worth this year, and what you feel he will be worth next year, then split the difference. For example, if you feel Grissom is worth $6 million this year, but is probably only good for $2 million next year, split the difference and bid $4 million. You may not win the bid on him, but you'll thank yourself for it later. Question: Who will be the high rollers in this auction? We'll start at the bottom of the list. These are the "Just Happy to Be Here" teams. Whether by design or just random luck, their Opening Day rosters are already set for the most part. They're just tagging along in this auction, looking for scraps to fall off the table at a million or two to fill in some holes. These teams appear in the table below.
Because there were so many questions and such uncertainty surrounding this auction, all four of these teams decided early in the off-season to bow out of the auction by adding to their payrolls and heading into the draft with complete (or nearly complete) Opening Day rosters. Their strategy makes sense, as these teams have cost certainty, and now only have to worry about filling in one or two missing pieces of the puzzle. Even without participating in the auction, all four of these teams should be contenders this year. The teams in the group below also have nearly complete rosters, but they have a bit more money to spend than the first group; and in general, they'll be looking to add more than a couple of starters in this auction. I'm calling these guys the "Bargain Hunters":
The Undertakers are on the bubble of being in the first group, but because they need to draft two full-time starters (or, in Undertakers tradition, four part-time starters), and need more than a dozen players to fill their 35-man roster, I'm considering them to be in the "bargain hunters" category. The Undertakers and Madison Fighting Mimes could probably lose every one of their bids in this auction and still be in good shape heading into the draft. Madison is in great position, as their entire lineup and pitching staff is already filled with a capable player, with the only exception being behind the plate. They have $14.7 million to buy a catcher and have some fun in the auction with some risk-free bidding. The Swamp Rats need four starters on offense, and have some big holes to fill on the pitching staff, but it's believed that Gillette is building toward 2004, so the pressure isn't great to fill those positions in the auction. In general, teams that are building for 2004 and beyond may be better off bargain-hunting in the regular draft after all the big money has been spent in the auction. The next group has quite a lot of money to spend in the auction and quite a lot of positions to fill on their starting roster. I'll call this group, "Desperate and Loaded" (kind of like your average college student during last call on a Thursday night):
While the Manchester Irish Rebels rank seventh in spending money, they also need more starters than any other team in the league. As such, they're right in the middle of the pack in terms of average dollars per player ($1.3m). Next is the group of "Big Spenders". These guys can pretty much buy whatever they want in this auction, and will undoubtedly have more fun this January than any of us.
No, that's not a misprint. The Southern Cal Slyme really could have as much as $32.9 million to spend on just four players. Again, these are just estimates, and the Slyme may decide to go in a different direction or use a different strategy than what I've projected. But in theory, they could spend an average of $8.2 million per player in the auction, which would rank #1 in the league. And that's after paying $13.4 million in penalties! The four teams above, with a combined buying power of $142 million, will basically steer this auction from beginning to end. Of course, I haven't even mentioned the team with the most buying power in the draft. This team's buying power is so outrageous, they deserve their own category. I call them, "The High Roller."
Again, that's not a misprint. The South Carolina Sea Cats really are heading into this auction with just $6 million in total salary, leaving them with a whopping $56.9 million to spend in this draft. The Sea Cats have more spending money than New Milford, Allentown, Kansas, Nashville, Los Altos and Bear Country combined. Their spending money alone comprises more than ten percent of the spending money for the entire league. If the prices I quoted earlier are accurate, South Carolina could take home Bonds, Ivan Rodriguez, Maddux and Washburn and still have almost $8 million left over! In 2001, the Sea Cats used two number one picks to select Roger Clemens and Tom Glavine back-to-back, and rode them both to a division title. History could very easily repeat itself. Question: Will there be any bargains in this auction? There are three theories about auction bargains, and all three theories make sense logically, though they all can't be right. The first theory is that bargains are found at the beginning of the auction. The reasoning is that there are so many players available at the beginning of the draft, teams are more willing to pass up players they like in favor of landing a better (or similar) player down the line. The second theory is that bargains are found at the end of the auction, because most of the teams have run out of money by then. By the end of the auction, teams have also filled most of their open positions by then, so there is less competition. The third theory is that bargains are found in the middle of the auction because there is too much money at the start of the auction for bargains to exist at that point, and too much panic-buying at the end of the auction for bargains to exist at that point. Which theory do I subscribe to? All of the above and none of the above. Every auction is different, and there is no such thing as a single theory that applies to every league or every auction. The key to any auction is to go against the flow. If everyone is spending tons of money, sit back and wait. If everyone is sitting back and waiting, then spend, spend, spend. Question: Do you have any other tips or advice, Mr. Wizard? Tip #1: If there are two players in the same lot that you are interested in, you can bid your maximum amount on both players, even if the total of those max bids is more than you can afford. The only catch is this: you must place these bids on the day the auction ends for that lot. Just bid on these players in order of preference. For example, let's say you like both Barry Bonds (and who doesn't?) and Mark Kotsay in Lot #1, but you only have $15m to spend in the auction. Under current league rules, your maximum bids are not allowed to exceed $15 million. However, because only winning bids are counted toward this max, and because the system only determines winning or losing bids once per day, you can submit bids for both that are in excess of your $15 million max. So, for example, let's say you bid $13 million on Bonds and $4 million on Kotsay. If you bid on Bonds first, and you win the bid, your bid for Kotsay would be removed from the system. If you bid on Kotsay first, and you win that bid, your Bonds bid would be cancelled. If you lose the bid on your first player of choice, your second bid would still stand. You cannot, however, win both bids in this scenario, because the total maximum bids will have exceeded $15 million. Tip #2: Keep an eye on your finances, and remember that there is a draft after the auction has ended. In other words, don't spend all of your money in one place (unless that's your strategy.) Tip #3: Don't forget that the decisions you make this year can affect your team next year, for better or worse. There's nothing worse than getting stuck with an overpriced waste of roster space (just ask the Blazers.) Tip #4: The Class of '04 (Magglio Ordonez, Manny Ramirez, Eric Gagne, Curt Schilling, Eric Milton, Troy Glaus, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Brad Radke, Jason Giambi, Brian Giles, Jose Vidro, Matt Clement, Javier Vazquez, Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltran, Miguel Tejada, Derek Lowe, Kevin Millwood, Shawn Green, Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Bernie Williams and Troy Percival) is - dare I say it - more impressive than this year's class. Every dollar spent on a player with a salary of more than $5 million this year is a dollar less you will have to spend next year. Tip #5: If you own one of those players mentioned above, just remember that it might be in your best interest to hold onto them this year. In 2004, the first tie-breaker on winning bids becomes previous ownership. At this point, we don't know how much of a factor tie-breakers will be, but we're about to find out soon. Tip #6: If, for some ungodly reason, you want to bid more than $20 million for any player, just send me an e-mail with your bid amount. You won't have to worry about me out-bidding you. Best of luck to everyone, and remember: have fun! |