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May 31, 2002 Diamond Notes Since there aren't any pressing issues out there worthy of an entire column, I thought I'd do a Gammons-like "Diamond Notes" piece. One Man's BDBL All-star Ballot With voting for the BDBL all-star game just days away, here's one man's ballot:
Like the National League, the Eck League outfield is so overflowing with talent that a lot of players having phenomenal seasons will have to settle for a bench role (at best) in the BDBL's mid-summer classic. Luis Gonzalez (.355/.468/.784 with 32 HR) is an MVP candidate, but he plays second fiddle to Bonds (as he does in the big leagues). Jose Cruz (.331/.409/.624) is having a tremendous year as well, but he's blocked by Beltran (.350/.394/.622). Then there's J.D. Drew, who probably won't even make the reserve roster, despite hitting .371/.521/.671. Kentucky's Dynamic Duo The one name that stands out like a sore thumb on my ballot is Uribe, but have you seen what he's done this year? As I write, he's hitting .406/.421/.930 for the Fox, with 8 doubles, 10 triples and 13 home runs - all in only 128 at-bats! He has 30 RBI's and 33 runs scored in 27 games! The fact that he's only had 128 at-bats would normally hurt him, but with no other Eck League shortstop having an all-star type of season, he might just sneak into the starting lineup. Yet, believe it or not, that isn't even the most astounding performance on the Fox team. Uribe's teammate, Adam Dunn, is hitting .409/.480/1.109 over the same number of games, with 10 doubles, 2 triples, 21 home runs, 33 runs scored, 36 RBI's and 14 walks. Uribe is averaging a home run every 9.8 at-bats, which puts him in McGwire territory. Dunn is averaging a home run every 5.2 at-bats, which puts him in Martian territory. Marlboro's Blunder While it's been fashionable of late to pick on The Shark for his bone-headed decision to dismantle what could/should have been a contending team in his never-ending pursuit of "next year," it's important to remember that the deconstruction of the Hammerheads began well before this year even began. At around this time last year, Marlboro made a blockbuster trade with the Stamford Zoots, handing the then two-time defending champions the dynamic duo of Tim Salmon and Phil Nevin for their stretch run (plus Mike Fetters, Tom Martin and Mark Loretta thrown in "just to make it even") in exchange for Mike Lowell, Mike DeJean, Sean Lowe, Rusty Greer and Matt Ginter. At the time, this trade caused a huge controversy and much discussion. A year later, we are now able to look back at this trade objectively with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. So let's do that. Just for fun, let's say that trade never happened. First, let's replace DeJean and Lowe (who have allowed 38 runs through 94 innings combined so far) with two replacement-level middle relievers sporting 4.50 ERA's. It's safe to assume that Marlboro would have traded for two better middle relievers at some point, but for now, just play along. Ginter, like most prospects traded by the Zoots, was released, so he's not a factor in this equation. Greer was a throw-in on a deal made by Marlboro last winter, and he most likely would not have been kept had he remained a Hammerhead. So in exchange for factoring out Fetters, Martin and Loretta, let's just factor out Greer as well and call it even. Salmon was a free agent, so he should be factored out as well, though when you consider what Marlboro could have gotten for a player of his caliber, he really should have been a big factor. That leaves Nevin and Lowell. Nevin has created 91.9 runs for the Phoenix Predators this year (note: for those just joining us, Nevin ended up in Phoenix because he and Nick Johnson were essentially traded by the Zoots in exchange for Roger Clemens and Trot Nixon last winter.) Lowell has created 32.8 runs for the Hammerheads this year. If you give Nevin the same number of games played (66) as Lowell, that prorates to 75.8 runs created. Do all the math, and if this trade hadn't been made, Marlboro would have allowed 314 runs and would have scored 361. According to the infamous "Pythagorean formula", that would give them a record of 38-28, which would put them two games ahead of the Madison Fighting Mimes atop the OL wild card race. Now, I know what you're thinking, Sharky: "But what about the staggering difference between Lowell and Nevin defensively?" Unfortunately, that's tougher to measure. Let's say for the sake of argument, though, that Lowell would have saved six extra runs from scoring (or one run every ten games) over Nevin. Based on research by Pete Palmer and others, that seems like a fair number. That would give the Hammerheads a 37-29 record, which would still be good for first. Even if we gave Lowell an extra ten runs saved over Nevin, the result (37-29) would still be the same. In short, the current deconstruction of the Hammerheads began when they made that infamous trade nearly a year ago. So cut Sharky some slack. He's been planning for 2003 all along. Pythagorus Revisited Speaking of the dreaded Pythagorean formula, have you taken a look at the BDBL's Pythagorean standings lately? The one number that really stands out is the Villanova Mustangs, who are currently winning seven more games than they "should" according to this formula. They, and the Chicago Black Sox (who are losing NINE more games than they should), are the only two BDBL teams with Pythagorean differences of more than four games. Usually, when a team outperforms its Pythagorean winning percentage by a wide margin, it's due to an unusually-good performance in one run games. But that's not the case with Villanova, who are just 11-10 in that category. So what is the reason for Villanova's better-than-expected record? Beats me, but I wouldn't expect it to continue. Fun with BASE Some fun stats, courtesy of "BASE":
More Fun Stats As long as we're looking at stats, here are some more you may have missed:
Guess the Team Can you guess this team? (2002 MLB numbers):
This entire offense (who are all legitimate, full-time starters, by the way) will be drawing a combined salary of just $18.4 million, which is probably less than what Vladimir Guerrero will fetch all by himself in January's draft. Aside from these eight hitters, this team's bench consists of a 22-year-old phenom in center field who is hitting .296/.348/.413 in his rookie season. If this team were to replace their $5 million center fielder with this kid, they'd be looking at a $13.5 million offense. As you can see, all this offense needs is a shortstop. The kid they have right now is a rookie who hit .300/.397/.429 at Triple-A last year, so it's safe to assume he'll snap out of it and have decent numbers by the end of the season. And I haven't even mentioned their rookie third baseman, who is widely regarded to have Hall-of-Fame potential despite his slow start this season. As you can see, this team is filled with rookies. In fact, four of the eight players in the starting lineup (if you swap the center fielders) are rookies. The average age of this offense is just 26.2, and that's with the older center fielder (who's all of 25.) And the team's ace won 17 games as a 21-year-old rookie last year. Aside from that 23-year-old rookie in center field, this team has another bench player, who was just called up to the big leagues. He's hitting .333/.407/.875 through his first 24 at-bats this year, and is scheduled to make just $1.1m next year. And just for good measure, this mystery team has yet another outstanding young outfield prospect hitting .333/.403/.587 in Triple-A. If Cutdown Day were held today, this team would have $36.1 million tied up among 20 players, leaving them with $27.9 million to spend in the new auction draft and 15 roster spots to fill. Of course, this team would be in a lot better shape if they hadn't just traded for a pitcher with a 6.54 ERA who's due to make $7 million next year. In case you haven't figured it out by now, this team is the New Milford Blazers. Scary Staff As long as we're looking ahead to next year, take a look at this pitching staff:
Not too shabby, right? Fortunately for the Eck League (and the rest of the BDBL), you'll only have to worry about the first three next year, as the Allentown Ridgebacks traded #4 (Bartolo Colon) and #5 (Kaz Ishii) before this season. Of course, if they hadn't traded Colon, they wouldn't have Bonds. But with Manny and Edgar out for extended periods this year, the Ridgebacks might need all the pitching they can get next year. BDBL history has proven that all you need is a pair of dominant aces to win a championship. So in other words, don't expect the Ridgebacks to fade away any time soon. |