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March 22, 2002 Predictions for 2002 Normally, this is one of my favorite columns of the year to put together. But this year, I just don't feel like putting much effort into it. I'm convinced that this season will be cancelled at some point - probably just before the all-star break - and will not resume again until 2003 at the earliest. I guess you can say that's my first prediction of this year. If that holds true, then there's really no point to predicting what will happen this season, is there? I've been making these predictions since 1983, though, so in the interest of preserving that streak, here they are once again. Just bear in mind that these predictions are made with the assumption that we'll be playing a full season this year. Before I make my predictions for the coming year, I always like to take a look back and the previous year and see how I did. Using the same method (inspired by Pete Palmer) that Diamond Mind Baseball uses to score their pre-season predictions, I finished with a score of 56.5 last year: Forecaster Score Sean McAdam, ESPN.com 32.5 Lindy's 36.5 Steve Mann 38.5 Dan Shaughnessy, Boston Globe 44.5 USA Today 46.5 Baseball Weekly 46.5 Jayson Stark, ESPN.com 46.5 The Sporting News (spring magazine) 52.5 Diamond Mind simulations 54.5 Tom Tippett, Diamond Mind 54.5 Baseball America 54.5 Mike 56.5 Sports Illustrated 56.5 Peter Gammons, ESPN 56.5 Gordon Edes, Boston Globe 56.5 David Schoenfield, ESPN.com 56.5 Matt Szefc, ESPN.com 56.5 Bob Klapisch, ESPN.com 57.5 Zack Scott, Diamond Mind 58.5 Baseball Digest 58.5 Baseball Yearbook 58.5 Danny Sheridan, USA Today 59.5 Rany Jazayerli, Baseball Prospectus 62.5 2000 final standings 64.5 Las Vegas over-under line 65.5 Rob Neyer, ESPN.com 66.5 Athlon 67.5 John Sickels, ESPN.com 68.5 Street & Smith 68.5 Pete Palmer 70.5 Larry Whiteside, Boston Globe 74.5 Mazeroski 75.5 Bob Ryan, Boston Globe 84.5 Spring training results 113.5 The National League West killed me. I thought Mike Hampton, Denny Neagle and Jeff Cirillo were huge improvements for the Rockies, and I saw them winning that division. I thought the Diamondbacks were a bunch of aging, worthless has-beens (note: I was right about the "aging" part) and would finish in fourth place. If I had only flip-flopped those two teams, I would have finished with 32.5 points, tied for first. Among the predictions I got right:
Among those I got wrong:
All in all, not a bad year. Certainly not any worse than you'd get from Miss Cleo. And now, here are my predictions for the 2002 season (if there is one): AL East: AL Central: AL West: NL East: NL Central: NL West: Post-season: Awards: NL MVP: Gary Sheffield. Biggest acquisition of the
off-season. Miscellaneous Predictions: - Albert Pujols will hit .250/.320/.440 with 26 HR and 83 RBI's. - Derek Lowe will have more wins than Pedro Martinez. - Alex Rodriguez will become the first American League player since Roger Maris to hit 60 homers in a season. - The Twins will draw over three million in attendance for the first time since the early 90's (but Carl Pohlad will still refuse to spend any of that extra revenue on payroll.) - Sean Burroughs' final numbers: .313/.389/.492, 42 2B, 11 HR, 92 RBI. - Alfonso Soriano will be the American League's only 30/30 player. - The Oakland A's will make a major mid-season trade, thus destroying their reputation as a "small market" team. - By the all-star break, the Braves will have acquired Mike Sweeney from the Royals in exchange for Matt Belisle and Marcus Giles. - Several well-known baseball writers will begin to call Cleveland a "small market." - The Players Association will take Major League Baseball to court in order to stop them from enforcing the "60/40" rule. - Breakthrough performances: Roy Halladay, Paul Wilson, Derek Lowe, Eric Gagne, Eric Milton, Eric Chavez, Ben Grieve, J.D. Drew, Bruce Chen, Randy Wolf, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Armando Rios, Octavio Dotel, Carlos Hernandez. - Disappointments: Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Joe Mays, Bartolo Colon, Brett Boone, Tom Glavine, Mo Vaughn, Javier Vazquez, Tino Martinez, Jim Edmonds, Darryl Kile, Jeromy Burnitz, Kevin Brown, Albert Pujols. - First manager fired: Tony Muser. - First GM fired: Allard Baird. |