In other trade news, Salem gets Moyer and Arrojo fmimes Double-A Posted 04-06-02 07:34 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Salem parts with Brownlie and Grant Roberts to get Moyer and Arrojo, firmly entrenching the Cowtippers as the Ozzie League favorite. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-06-02 08:35 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ozzie League favorite?? Not when the Zoots are still in the league. Hopefully, this will be the year the Mimes step up and knock the Zoots right out of the playoffs. And don't forget about the Undertakers, who own the Cowtippers in the regular season and post-season. Not to mention the other wild card contenders. There's still a lot of baseball left to play. We're just playing them one game at a time. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridgebacks Double-A Posted 04-07-02 07:32 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No offense to anyone but this trade is worse than the Schilling deal. Based on history, the odds are not in favor of Bobby Brownlie turning into a good major league pitcher. I can see trading veterans for prospects if you're trying to rebuild but to trade a very good starter and a good relief pitcher (who threw over 100 innings) for a college pitcher and a decent relief prospect doesn't seem like good business. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AZHeat Low-A Posted 04-07-02 10:18 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I would agree with the Ridgebacks! The "Commish" has no grounds to comment on any trade after his steal! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SeaCats Double-A Posted 04-07-02 01:24 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Is this trade official? I'm assuming it is since Mike replied to the original post. Seems like a steal for the Cowtippers to me, but then again Brownlie may turn out to be the stud Mike's been saying he is all off season. Obviously, whoever had Moyer (???) thinks he will be. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-07-02 03:51 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I can't tell if you guys are serious or not. College pitchers drafted in the first round - especially those drafted in the first ten picks - tend to have pretty good Major League careers, don't they?? Brownlie looks a lot like Matt Morris to me, in terms of stuff and how quickly he'll make an impact. Frankly, I thought I gave up WAY too much. I'm assuming that Tom and Mike are just giving me a hard time, because I can't believe that they really believe this deal even comes close to that Schilling trade. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SeaCats Double-A Posted 04-07-02 04:15 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I personally don't know too much about Brownlie or Morris' college career for that matter (if he had a college career). Though I hope, Brownlie doesn't have Morris' early health problems (something you are painfully aware of Mike)...the difference here I guess is it would be a lot easier to eat the pittance that Brownlie will be paid than what you were paying Morris (2 or 3 mil. if I remember correctly). I looked at Brownlie's college numbers he appears to be in line for about 100 IP, which isn't exceptional given the ignorance of college coaches when it comes to pitcher usage. So hopefully, he'll at least be healthy. I still say you're a winner on this one Mike. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-07-02 04:37 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well, as we always say with trades like this, "time will tell." With Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Roy Oswalt, etc., we've all seen how valuable a $100k ace is in this league. If we do decide to go with an auction style draft, those $100k bargains are going to be even more valuable. I really don't think that trading a few chapters worth of Jamie Moyer for a potential $100k ace is that risky at all. I mean, this is JAMIE MOYER we're talking about here. He's hardly someone who will inspire fear in the eyes of my opponents. Like Shane Reynolds, he's a junkballer who doesn't strike out a lot of guys, but doesn't walk many, either. That type of pitcher - I think - is more valuable to me than he would be to most teams because of my defense. The only thing Moyer and Curt Schilling have in common is that they both won 20 games last year. The comparison begins and ends there. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Shark Triple-A Posted 04-07-02 06:39 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In my defense ) I only traded Moyer for Brownlie (I didn't have Roberts). I live in Jersey and see the clipings in Brownlie every other day (Rutgers). The guy is for real. I will have to find all of the scouting reports to show you. Basically the one's that say he will be the first player in the draft, that he has Clemens like power legs and a strong build. That he has tremendous control and a great work ethic. That most scouts feel he could be in the majors by June 2003. Oh yeh, don't forget what he did for Team USA last year. Things like that. This is Jamie Moyer at $10 million by the way and I did have some offers but felt this was the best one and no I didn't trade him just to trade him. I traded him for potential like most of us do when trading for talent in the low minors which is basically where Brownlie is right now in terms of development. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridgebacks Double-A Posted 04-07-02 07:28 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "The only thing Moyer and Curt Schilling have in common is that they both won 20 games last year". Well that's about the only thing they NEED to have in common. Do you mean they don't resemble one another? 2001 stats Moyer: .89 H/ip, .21 BB/ip, .11 HR/ip, 3.43 ERA Schilling: .92 H/ip, .15 BB/ip, .14 HR/ip, 2.98 ERA I traded a 28 year old who won 17 games last year with a 3.29 ERA for Schilling PLUS 3 other guys who can have an impact. For Moyer, you traded a guy who has thrown exactly ZERO professional innings. I guess I struggle with guys trading all-stars for prospects. The one big advantage rebuilding teams have in the BDBL is hindsight. They can SEE who's having a good year because they can watch it happen. Why not wait and go after a player who's having a good year instead of reaching for someone and hoping they pan out? I live in NJ as well and I've seen all the clippings too. I've also seen the scouting reports on Josh Hamilton, Ruben Mateo, Ruben Rivera, and a hundred other guys who haven't panned out. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-07-02 08:00 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tom, you really don't mean to compare CURT SCHILLING to JAMIE MOYER, do you?? I mean - seriously. I'd like to think you're smarter than that. I know this is your attempt to deflect some of the criticism from your past trades toward me (I believe Brian Hicks would call this "displacement?"), so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Believe me, though, if I really were so inclined, I could explain - at great length - why CURT SCHILLING is a much, much, MUCH better pitcher than Jamie Moyer this year, last year and every year of baseball past and future. It wouldn't hard to do, and it wouldn't take much research. Picking and choosing stats and putting them side by side is a cute little gimmick until you realize that one of those lines represents CURT SCHILLING and the other, JAMIE MOYER! To address your other point, you've got one more year left of Schilling (who has allowed 7 hits and 2 walks in 16 innings so far this year - while striking out TWENTY-SIX!!) PLUS you've got a year of Eric Gagne at $1.1m, who will most likely be a very nice middle reliever (or closer) if he doesn't go to the starting rotation where he belongs. In exchange, you parted with three players who will be making nearly as much as Schilling ($9.2 million) next year, and two of those players will be eating up a whopping $9.6 million in 2004! Even if - and this is a HUGE "if" - those players earn their salaries, that's a helluva lot of money! On the other hand, Brownlie will begin his Hammerheads career with a paltry salary of $100k, he'll still be $100k the following year and possibly even the year after that. After that point, Marlboro can sign him to as many years as their hearts desire. Now, you've made more great trades in a year and a half than I've made in four years, so you tell me. Which set of players would you rather have: a) three players making close to $10m for the next two years who will most likely never be worth that kind of money, or b) the best college pitcher in America, who will be making minimum wage for two or three years in a row once he makes it to the big leagues (which will likely be within the next two years)? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-07-02 08:03 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I've just been hit by inspiration. Tom, if you'd like to put your money where your mouth is, I have a proposal for you. Since you believe that Jamie Moyer and Curt Schilling are so similar (and since winning 20 games is the only criteria of a good pitcher, then clearly they are), then I will trade you Jamie Moyer right now for Schilling. Whaddya say? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridgebacks Double-A Posted 04-08-02 04:44 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I never said that Jamie Moyer was a better pitcher than Curt Schilling. The numbers I posted were to show that Moyer is pretty darn good. For Schilling, I traded a 28 year old that's won 49 games over the past 3 years. For Moyer, you traded a guy who has never pitched a major league inning in his life. Now, I like potential. Potential is the kind of thing you look for during the farm drafts or when you're looking for throw-in's in trades that aren't quite even. But to trade a 20 game winner (a lefty at that!) for a college pitcher just seems like a bad idea. The reason you were able to pick him up last year as a farm free agent is that all the potential in the world doesn't mean he'll be a good major leaguer. I hope Brownlie has a good career. I've seen some interviews and he seems like a really nice guy and it would really help Rutgers get some national attention. But until he shows SOMETHING at the major league level, we're all just guessing. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-08-02 10:08 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridgebacks wrote: For Schilling, I traded a 28 year old that's won 49 games over the past 3 years. For Moyer, you traded a guy who has never pitched a major league inning in his life. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Russ Ortiz has not won 49 games over the past three years. He's won 12. He went 6-14 for the Ridgebacks in 2001, 6-15 for Boise in 2000 and 0-0 for Antioch in 1999. How many games he's won in the major leagues is completely irrelevant since this is a DMB trade. Mark Prior had never pitched a professional inning in his life when he was traded this past winter for Scott Rolen, straight-up. Was that a bad trade for Chicago? (Note: Jamie Moyer is NO Scott Rolen!) When you drafted Roy Oswalt in the farm draft last year, he hadn't yet pitched an inning in the major leagues. If you had traded him straight-up for David Wells (a 20-game winner!), would that have been a good trade for you? Aside from all of that, though, I can't believe that anyone is in an uproar over JAMIE MOYER! At least when I get in an uproar over someone, it's over someone worthy of an uproar (like Schilling, Clemens or Randy Johnson.) If you guys really think that highly of Moyer, I'll be happy to trade him to you. Just make me an offer. There's still plenty of time left until the next deadline. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SeaCats Double-A Posted 04-08-02 10:39 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Has there really been an uproar? You think you gave away too much. Sharky thinks Brownlie's a stud. Those are the only two opinions that matter. But... Since this is the message board, you're gonna get other peoples opinions as well. I hardly think these opinions qualify as an uproar. I think we both can agree many, many trades in the past have been greeted with much more of an "uproar" than the rather tame comments this trade has received. I don't think you gave away too much. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridgebacks Double-A Posted 04-08-02 11:27 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- First, I agree with Tony. I don’t think this is much of an “uproar”. Just a friendly discussion about a trade (with some horrification thrown in). I made a mistake. I didn’t mean to say “major league inning” I meant to say “professional inning”. A guy with a proven minor league track record is much different than a guy coming out of college. I completely don’t follow your logic when talking about trading prospects. Roy Oswalt for David Wells is a terrible trade for me but I only know that NOW with the benefit of hindsight. You took Adam Johnson ahead of Roy Oswalt in that same farm draft (another debating ploy, digging at old wounds), how about if you traded Adam Johnson for a 20 game winner? Is that a good trade? Mark Prior for Scott Rolen looks like a pretty good deal for both sides but WHO KNOWS? Ryan Anderson for a 20 game winner would have looked like a good deal a few years ago as well but now he’s having problems. All I’m saying is that I don’t understand why a team looking to rebuild would trade a valuable pitcher for a guy with no track record at all besides a couple of seasons at Rutgers University. Why not go after young guys who are actually having good years? As far as I’m concerned, you got Jamie Moyer for next to nothing and Brownlie remains next to nothing until he actually becomes a good major leaguer. At least Arizona got major leaguers for Schilling. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mike S./Rocks Triple-A Posted 04-08-02 11:34 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In one of my rotisserie leagues last year, the guy in first traded Roy Oswalt in like June for Moises Alou or someone like that. It caused an uproar from someone who thought the first-place guy got off cheap. Then Oswalt proceeded to win like nine in a row. The guy won the league, but he probably would have won with Oswalt, so the trade looks really bad right now. But at that time some thought the first-place guy ripped off/took advantage of the other guy! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-08-02 12:37 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You know, this whole discussion of what is and is not an uproar reminds me of that line from "The Breakfast Club" where Mr. Vernon storms into the room yelling, "What was that ruckus?", to which Brian (Anthony Michael Hall) replies, "Can you define the ruckus, sir?" Ruckus, uproar, friendly debate, whatever you want to call it, my point is that I can't believe that Jamie Moyer is attracting so much discussion (can I call it that?) on this message board. I find it just a little bit amusing. Tom, if your main point is that it's foolish to trade for unproven pitching, that argument certainly has its merits, and you can back that claim with countless examples of pitching phenoms who never panned out. You have to admit, though, that when it comes to risk and reward, the reward of owning a $100k ace is worth the risk depending on who you're giving up in return. Is Brownlie any more of a risk than Mark Prior? You said that was a good deal, yet Prior has ONE professional start under his belt. If Brownlie had one start under his belt, would that make a difference? Is Brownlie being penalized because he chose to go to college instead of playing in the pros? If Brownlie had been putting up the same numbers for the Linchburg Hillcats that he has been for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights over the past three years, would he be a better risk in your eyes? If Brownlie reaches the major leagues at 22 years old and becomes the next Matt Morris, does it matter how he got there? You say, "at least Arizona got major leaguers for Schilling." But even major leaguers have risks associated with them. The chances of Russ Ortiz being a bargain at $5m in 2003 and $6.5m in 2004 are far greater than Brownlie's chances of being a $100k bargain in 2004 and 2005. I don't think either one of them is a sure thing, because there are no sure things in baseball. But there are various levels of risk, and historically speaking, Brownlie is a pretty low-risk player while Ortiz is very high-risk. My point is that you don't need hindsight to know that trading Roy Oswalt for David Wells is a terrible trade. Given the risk and reward with each pitcher, Oswalt is always the better risk and higher reward. Even if he didn't pan out the way he has, it still would have been the right move not to make that trade. For the same reason, I thought Cleveland gave up too much for Lieber. I don't need hindsight (or foresight) to know that Roy Halladay is likely to have a monster year this year. Even if that isn't true, the reward of having a full season of Lieber hardly seems worth the risk of losing a cheap ace for many years to come. I know someone will bring up the Clemens trade, so I'll mention it first. The reward of having several years of Nick Johnson is well worth parting with a pitcher like Clemens, and I wouldn't have had a problem if that trade were limited to Clemens and Johnson (though it still would have killed me that the Zoots had added Clemens.) My problem was that Jim Edmonds was "thrown in" to "make it even", and the Zoots even got a couple of draft picks thrown in as well. Another huge factor to consider with these trades is how much production the team trading the prospects for stars is getting. The Zoots got six chapters out of Clemens and SIXTEEN chapters from Johnson, while I'm only getting four chapters from Moyer. Last year, I got four chapters from Jason Kendall in exchange for Sean Burroughs. Allentown, on the other hand, received ELEVEN chapters worth of production from Schilling. That's a huge factor to consider when judging the risks and rewards involved in these types of trades. Hope that clears it up! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SeaCats Double-A Posted 04-08-02 01:17 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Is Brownlie any more of a risk than Mark Prior? In my eyes, yes he is. Prior has been referred to as the best college pitcher EVER. His numbers his last year at USC reflected incredible dominance, while playing some of the toughest competition NCAA baseball has to offer. Brownlie has very strong numbers, though his K numbers look a little light, and he is not (and won't be) facing anywhere near the level of competition that Prior faced at USC (yes I do know Brownlie had a good outing against Miami). He doesn't look as good as Prior to me. Just looking at the numbers, as that is all I have to go by. Prior struck out an incredible 189 batters in 131 IP while walking only 17. Brownlie appears to have that type of control but his numbers aren't bearing that kind of stuff, and he won't be facing the type of hitters Prior faced. I have no idea what Brownlie's number were last year, so I'm admittedly using a small sample size. I'm sure that his numbers will improve as Rutgers' late season schedule looks a little soft. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridgebacks Double-A Posted 04-08-02 01:28 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brownlie's numbers from last year: 84 IP 65 Hits 17 BB 86 SO 2.36 ERA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-08-02 01:37 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exactly! That's why Akron got SCOTT ROLEN for Mark Prior, and all I got was JAMIE MOYER! Of course Prior should fetch more in return, since he's less of a risk. You're completely discounting Brownlie because - regardless of his scouting report - he hasn't thrown a professional pitch, yet you're giving Prior a pass despite the same circumstances. I'm just trying to follow the chain of logic here. (By the way, you're comparing Prior's numbers as a junior to Brownlie's numbers as a sophomore. Even though I wouldn't dare compare the two of them, I think that's a bit unfair.) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-08-02 01:47 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Just for the record: Prior, soph yr: 136 IP, 8.3 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 9.9 K/9, 3.56 ERA Brownlie, soph yr: 84 IP, 7.0 H/9, 1.8 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 2.36 ERA Granted, Rutgers plays in a MUCH weaker conference than USC, so Prior's stats are more impressive even though they don't seem to be. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SeaCats Double-A Posted 04-08-02 01:58 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brownlie this year: 43.1 IP, 7.7 H/9, 1.4 BB/9, 8.9 K/9 Accidentally deleted my previous post. Sorry -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Shark Triple-A Posted 04-08-02 02:01 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Is Brownlie the second coming of Mark Prior? Maybe, maybe not but last time I looked the last college pitcher to be as dominant as Prior was in college was a former O's savior by the name of Ben McDonald. Trust me, as a life long O's fan I HATED HIM because his potential was immense but we all know what happened to him. Basically, all players are a gamble. Even the "so-called" best ever. I threw together a couple of clippings from 2 well resepected sites just to defend my trade. Let me just ask would I be ridiculed if I traded him for Brazelton or Gross? Brownlie is better than both. #1 Ranking by Baseball America and Baseball America Pre-Season All America Selection: The first round of the 2001 draft featured nine players who were BA preseason All- Americans, including Middle Tennessee State's Dewon Brazelton, Auburn's Gabe Gross and Southern California's Mark Prior. Scouting directors feel certain Rutgers righthander Bobby Brownlie will follow that path to the first round. He was the only unanimous selection among the 18 ballots received. Major league scouting directors of major league clubs vote on the team and focus on what a player will do in the future, not what he’s done in the past. Their selections are based on the same criteria that they use to grade players for the draft: performance, talent and major league potential. As a result, our All-America team will bear a strong resemblence to the early rounds of the 2002 draft. Rutgers’ Bobby Brownlie, like the 2001 trio, dominated with Team USA and heads into the spring as the consensus No. 1 college prospect in the country. "Those guys are pretty similar with strong, sturdy lower halves," said one AL scouting director. "You see those guys and see strong upper legs and thick chests. With the sophisticated weight training you see in colleges today, these are guys who should have few durability problems." The lone unanimous choice on the first team, Brownlie attracts scouts with a powerful lower body. He generates a good downward plane on his pitches though he’s just 6-foot-1. His fastball is the best in the college ranks, regularly reaching 95-96 mph, and he has a hammer for an overhand curve. "He’s strong and fit, and you know he’s going to bring similar stuff to the ballpark every Friday night," one AL scouting director said. "He always gives you all he’s got. He has a good changeup as well." Brownlie’s doggedness also earns points. He has pitched well with three days’ rest in his career, winning a pair of games in the 2000 Big East Conference tournament and winning his final start for Team USA last summer, a start he pushed up so he could pitch one more time in front of his Jersey fans. #1 Ranking by TeamOneBaseball.com Brownlie is the nation's top college pitching prospect for the 2002 Draft. He's a strongly built 6-1, 210-pound power pitcher with consistent stuff each time out. Brownlie was 8-0 with a 0.84 ERA for Team USA in the summer of 2001. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SeaCats Double-A Posted 04-08-02 02:18 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- How's this college pitcher look? Player x 62 IP, 9.4 h/9, 3.0 bb/9, 9.4 k/9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridgebacks Double-A Posted 04-08-02 02:33 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I was an infielder in college but was called upon in a blowout once. My college pitching stats: 1.2 IP 3 Hits 1 BB 2 HB (hey, it’s not MY fault they were standing so close to the plate) 2 SO Mixing a deceptive 79 mph fastball (ANY fastball under 80 is deceptive) with a 61 mph change and a 41 mph knuckleball, I was able to dominate in my inning and 2/3. Another interesting note. I played with John Mabry (currently with the Phillies) and we once clocked him at 96 mph (on a fast gun). Of course, he didn’t really have any idea where he was throwing the ball but it was still pretty impressive. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-08-02 02:35 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What division is he in? How old is he? What's his injury and usage history? What do the scouts say about him? What pitches does he throw, and at what speeds? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish Head Honcho Posted 04-08-02 03:11 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I just realized that in an earlier post, I forgot to include Ronnie Belliard's salary. So, for the record, the Heat are committed to $13.2 million in salary for those four players acquired in the Schilling trade, and $9.6 million for two of those players in 2004. I guess that's the price you pay for "Major League" players! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SeaCats Double-A Posted 04-08-02 03:51 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDBLcommish wrote: What division is he in? How old is he? What's his injury and usage history? What do the scouts say about him? What pitches does he throw, and at what speeds? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mike...I was just screwing around. That's me Senior Year. Division 1, 22, Scouts didn't say anything, 84-86 MPH fastball (sinker), curve (average -inconsistent), change (good). Scouts typically don't say anything about righthanders that pitch around the mid 80's . I was once clocked at 89, though I never hit the elusive 90.