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January 25, 2003 2003 Season Preview
The big question for the 2003 season is the same as it was on March 6th of last year: is there any point in playing out the season when we already know how it will end? March 6th, 2002 is a day that will live in BDBL infamy. On that date, the Allentown Ridgebacks, who were already favored to win the BDBL championship, added Curt Schilling to what was already the league's best pitching rotation. At that point, the rest of the season became an exercise in futility and anti-drama, though in the end the Ridgebacks had a tougher time sealing the deal than anyone imagined. Despite the dark cloud cast by the Allentown Ridgebacks, I've felt more optimism emanating from more teams in this league than in any year past, thanks in part to the first-ever BDBL free agent auction. In fact, of all the owners I have spoken with in the past several months (which would probably be all of them), I can think of only one or two owners that have no delusions of competing in 2003. For the most part, that optimism is warranted. Because so many star players changed hands this winter via free agency, the league feels decidedly more balanced. Teams that were once great, but took a short break to regroup, are back in full force. The old familiar names that always seem to be at the top of their divisions still look as dominant as ever. Even the doormats of the BDBL, the New Milford Blazers, look like a contender. Of course, these things change with time. This isn't Lake Wobegon, and every team in the BDBL can't be above average. Eventually, some teams will begin to drop out of the race, and star players will begin to hop on that one-way shuttle to places like Allentown and Stamford. With a little discipline, though, Jedi mind tricks can be thwarted. Before I preview the coming season, I like to take a look back at the predictions I made last year at this time:
All in all, not a bad year for Kreskin Glander! And now, for this year's predictions: Jump to:
Allentown Ridgebacks Owner: Tom DiStefano Strengths: The best starting rotation in the history of organized fantasy baseball, a deep bullpen headed by the league's most dominant reliever, a lineup featuring a very good hitter from one to eight, a deep bench featuring a few players that would be starters for some teams and plenty of trade bait to use later in the season should they need it (or even if they don't.) Johnson, Schilling and Oswalt are all rated Vg or better for durability, meaning Allentown's pitching will be even more dominant in the post-season this year than they were last year. Weaknesses: Sadly, there aren't many. But if it makes you feel any better, two-thirds of Allentown's outfield is atrocious defensively. Wilkerson is rated Pr in center, and Ramirez is Pr in left. Of course, the Ridgebacks drafted a couple of Vg/Ex outfielders as late-inning defensive replacements, making this less of a "problem." Also, since Allentown pitchers hardly ever put the ball in play, defense becomes practically irrelevant. Allentown's front four averaged 10.1 strikeouts per nine in the big leagues last year, and the Ridgebacks should easily obliterate the BDBL team record for strikeouts this season. Outlook: Despite losing the game's best hitter to free agency, the Ridgebacks are as strong as ever - some would even say stronger. With three pitchers that would each be the ace of any other team in the league, it's hard to imagine this team not repeating as BDBL champions. Thanks again, Mike Leuck, wherever you are! Prediction: 1st-place. After a 122-win season, the Ridgebacks sweep their way into an all-Sith World Series against the Stamford Zoots. As the sixth out of the sixth inning in Game Six is being recorded, the Earth's core erupts, bursting through the surface of the planet, creating a fiery rain of sulfur upon all living things. Men, women and children suffer slow, agonizing deaths while the Sun is extinguished by dark clouds of poisonous smoke, bringing perpetual darkness to the land. Eventually, every living thing on the planet is destroyed - all except Tom and Paul, who go on to play Game Seven. The Ridgebacks win in the ninth inning on a bloop single by Ellis Burks (acquired from Akron earlier in the year in exchange for Manny Aybar) off Bung-Hole Kim. Kansas Law Dogs Owner: Chris Luhning Strengths: As always, the Law Dogs feature a powerful lineup of sluggers that will undoubtedly lead the league in runs scored thanks to their gravity-defying home ballpark. From one to five, the Law Dogs are as good as any lineup in the league. Lowe should be one of the best starting pitchers in the league (though his final numbers probably won't reflect that), and the rest of the rotation is solid all the way through. Weaknesses: The bottom half of the lineup is considerably weaker than in years past, which makes it easier for opposing teams to pitch around. The Kansas lineup is also very righty-heavy, which can also be exploited by good teams. With groundball pitchers Lowe and Ashby, the Law Dogs would benefit greatly from an infield with outstanding range. Unfortunately, with Vaughn (Fr), Kent (Fr), Tejada (Av) and Randa (Av), the 'Dogs don't have it. All those ground balls squirting through the infield can only lead to trouble in the Fields of Tombstone. Outlook: After taking a year off to regroup, the Law Dogs are in better shape than they were heading into the '02 season. However, playing in the same division as the best team in the league, Kansas will likely be forced to concede the division early and go for the wild card instead. Last year, the wild card wasn't good enough for GM Chris Luhning, and he spent the final four chapters of the season shipping off his star players in exchange for future considerations. Will Luhning settle for second-best this year, or will he once again wave the white flag earlier than anyone expects? Prediction: 2nd-place. With nine Kansas City Royals already on the roster, Luhning decides to go all-out and trades for every other member of the Royals. The Law Dogs adopt a royal blue uniform and install a man-made waterfall in center field. By the end of the season, Luhning develops an unnatural fixation with aging "closers", good-glove/no-hit shortstops and Chuck Knoblauch. When attendance falls below the one million mark, Luhning blames the Yankees. Houston Heatwave Owner: Greg Newgard
Strengths: The Heatwave starting rotation features three of the best lefties in the game, and their bullpen is once again among the best in the league. Troy Percival has one of the lowest split OPS's I've ever seen (364 vs. righties.) Weaknesses: Last season, this team (then the Phoenix Predators) finished the season fourth in the Eck League in runs scored. This year, it would be a miracle if they finished any higher than 11th in that category. Only four players on the team have a split OPS above 800, and Houston's platoon of Helms, Cox and Stairs has to be the weakest first base platoon in the history of the league. While having three of the top lefties in baseball is a good thing, it won't necessarily be an advantage in the Higuera Division, which features three strong right-handed lineups. Outlook: This franchise has always followed an odd/even pattern similar to Bret Saberhagen's early career. Unfortunately for Houston fans, this is an odd-numbered year. The good news for Houston fans is that this team has some quality trade bait in Percival, Karsay, Grissom and Mesa if they do decide to wave the white flag. Prediction: 4th-place. When Jarrod Washburn gets off to a bad start for the Anaheim Angels, Houston GM Greg Newgard hires a hit man to take out Washburn before he reaches the 40-inning landmark. While the case in under investigation, Newgard agrees to cop a plea in exchange for his testimony against the mob. He then moves to Iowa and enters the witness relocation program under the alias, "Gary Newgard." Commissioner Glander continues to annoy him, however, by calling him, "Greg." Southern Cal Slyme Owner: Bob Sylvester, Sr. Strengths: Koch, Bradford and Grybowski are all good situational relievers that should provide this team with either some quality innings or some quality return on the trade market (as long as they don't trade with Marlboro again.) Piniero enjoyed a career year, and could be this team's all-star representative. The middle of the order, featuring Todd Walker surrounded by two platoons, is not bad at all. Weaknesses: The starting staff beyond Piniero is unimpressive, as is the bottom third of the batting order. The bullpen's lack of a lefty arm may hurt down the road, though Gryboski is not a bad substitution. Outlook: Once upon a time (not too long ago), the Slyme pitching rotation included Roy Halladay, Jason Schmidt, Randy Wolf and Jacob Peavy. But those arms were all exchanged for a vast collection of Four-A pitchers on injury rehab, slap hitters and (very) green rookies. Had those original four pitchers all been retained, the Slyme would have had the third-best starting rotation in the BDBL behind only Allentown and Akron. Instead, Slyme fans will be waiting on pins and needles to find out whether Drew Henson, Hanley Ramirez, Brett Myers and Jon Rauch all become future superstars or future roster filler for the Litchfield Lightning. Prediction: 4th-place. In his never-ending quest to drive me insane, Southern Cal GM Bob Sylvester trades for Pedro Martinez just so that he can trade him to the Marlboro Hammerheads for Hiram Bocachica and a stack of Baseball Weekly back issues. The trade takes three weeks to consummate as The Shark waffles back and forth and insists that Southern Cal throw in Dennis Tankersley just to make it even (which, of course, they do.)
South Carolina Sea Cats Owner: Tony DeCastro Strengths: After prolonged negotiations this off-season, Tom Glavine returned to the Sea Cats for the third straight year. He heads a rotation that is the best in this division and among the best in the league. The bullpen received a major boost on Draft Day and is now among the best in the league as well. It's a deep and well-balanced pen, with four pitchers that held righties to an OPS under 600, and two that held lefties to a sub-600 OPS. Guerrero is a two-way force in the middle of the lineup, surrounded by a lot of Zoots-like platoon hitters. Weaknesses: South Carolina's platoon splits aren't nearly as drastic as Stamford's, and as a result, the players surrounding Guerrero in the lineup aren't nearly as intimidating. With little protection in the lineup, expect Guerrero to be awarded a ton of free passes until another big bat is acquired. The table-setters in front of Guerrero are equally unimpressive. I've projected Kotsay and Young to be in the #1 and #2 spots in the lineup, though no matter who you put in those spots, there aren't many high-OBP hitters to be found on the Sea Cats roster. As a result, Vlad may not see many runners on base this year when he steps to the plate. Outlook: If rosters were frozen today, the Sea Cats probably wouldn't have the personnel to carry them to a division title, as the teams behind them in this division match up just as well if not better. But with the amount of money DeCastro has invested in this team both this year and next, it is clear that the Sea Cats are operating with a "win now" mindset. The Sea Cats have more than enough trade bait to get the missing pieces of the puzzle they need this summer, and GM Tony DeCastro has proven in the past that he is capable of making the moves he needs to make to get this team to the top. Prediction: 1st-place. A division title and a new baby all in one year. Does it get any better than that? After going for broke in 2001 and reaping the dividends of that gamble, the Sea Cats pull the same trick in 2003. The Sea Cats run into a brick wall named Pedro Martinez in the Division Series, but they put up a good fight and vow to return to the post-season in 2004. Nashville Funkadelic Owner: Steve Osborne Strengths: A strong top of the lineup, followed by a true run-producer, a well-balanced bullpen and three legitimate aces in the starting rotation. The defense is also strong, with three of four Vg's or better, depending on the opposing pitcher. Weaknesses: Richie Sexson is a fine hitter, but as protection in the lineup for Sheffield, he just doesn't cut it. The Funkadelic will need to add a big bat if they expect big production from Sheffield. The glaring hole behind Sheffield also diminishes the value of Ichiro, who won't (or, at least, shouldn't) be allowed to steal as often. Outlook: The Funkadelic definitely have enough talent to contend this season, and they very well could repeat as division champs. However, it won't be as easy for them as it was last year. The other teams in this division have improved over the off-season while the Funk have replaced Jason Giambi, Bernie Williams and Roberto Alomar with Gary Sheffield, Ichiro and Phil Nevin. The fate of the 2003 Person Division title will be decided at the trading table. Prediction: 2nd-place and the EL wild card. Just six games separate the top three teams in this division by season's end. The Funkadelic come up just short of a division title, earning a Division Series match-up against the Allentown Ridgebacks. The Ridgebacks barely break a sweat, sweeping the Funkadelic in four easy games. Wapakoneta Hippos Owner: Bobby Sylvester, Jr. Strengths: The Hippos feature a deep bullpen and a strong 3-4-5 in the lineup. Pujols is not only a great hitter, but is extremely versatile. He's rated Av or better at four different positions, making him the best utility player in baseball. With 128 walks and a .400 OBP, Dunn is an outstanding table-setter for Pujols and Green. Weaknesses: While trying to project this lineup, I realized that the Wapakoneta lineup looks a lot like a bell curve - only more drastic. The middle-third of the lineup is occupied by three quality, all-star caliber hitters. But the top- and bottom-third is filled with mediocrity, and it doesn't really matter how you shuffle those players around. Teams will have a very easy time pitching to the Hippos. Once you get past the middle three, the next six batters are easy outs. Aside from the offense, the pitching staff lacks a true ace, which will certainly hurt when the Hippos face the top two teams in this division 16 times each. Outlook: Hippos GM Bobby Sylvester has done a good job keeping this team competitive through the years, and this year should be no exception. However, the two trades Wapakoneta made with the Zoots this past winter have hurt the Hippos both this year and in future years. After trading Mike Lieberthal, Wapakoneta is left with an uninspiring platoon behind the plate that cost just as much as Lieberthal did. After picking up Tino Martinez in the draft for $1 million (half the price of Brian Daubach), Daubach has become disposable. And unless Juan Cruz turns into the next Pedro Martinez, the loss of Joe Mauer may be felt for many years to come. Prediction: 3rd-place. Leading the division by one game heading into Chapter Five, the Hippos trade Dunn and Rivera to the Zoots for Quinton McCracken, Lou Pote and an autographed picture of Paul Marazita to hang on the wall next to the Britney Spears posters. Wapakoneta loses their lead soon thereafter and finishes the race in third place. Villanova Mustangs Owner: Tony Chamra Strengths: A deep bullpen and loads of intriguing trade bait. At some point this season, the Mustangs (like every other team in this division) will have to decide whether to go for it or build for 2004. If Villanova decides to pull the trigger, they have more trade bait than any other team in this division, which could give them a leg up. From Ben Kozlowski to Bobby Kielty to Carlos Lee to Boof Bonser and Adam Wainwright, the Mustangs have a plethora of young talent that any rebuilding team would love to own. Of course, 'Nova may decide to just hang onto those players themselves. Tough decisions like these are part of the daily existence of a BDBL GM. Weaknesses: Aside from Floyd and Lee, the Villanova offense is nothing special. The only other players with an OPS above 800 are Kielty and Wigginton, and neither of those two racked up more than 300 at-bats last season. The rotation not only lacks an ace, but a #2 starter as well. Outlook: The Mustangs were in contention for the EL wild card until the final chapter of the season last year, but this year, there is just too much competition and too many missing pieces of the puzzle on the 'Nova roster. Whatever decision Mustangs GM Tony Chamra makes, he'll have enough trade bait to accomplish his goal. If Villanova does decide to throw in the towel at some point, Jeffrey Hammonds, Felix Rodriguez, Tony Fiore, Josh Fogg and Ismael Valdes would all be desirable commodities by contending teams. Prediction: 4th-place. After another disappointing MLB season by Ken Griffey, Jr., Chamra pays a record $20 million penalty just to get rid of him. "It's like taking off a band-aid," says Chamra. "You can do it slowly and painfully or just rip the damn thing off. Either way, it's gonna hurt."
Akron Ryche Owner: D.J. Shepard
Strengths: The second-best pitching rotation in the BDBL, the second-best bullpen in the BDBL, and a very strong lineup from one to five. The Ryche rotation is second only to the great Allentown Ridgebacks, with Martinez going toe-to-toe with Johnson and Schilling as the sole contenders for the EL Cy Young award. The Akron bullpen is very impressive, with four pitchers sporting ERA's under 3.10. And the Akron offense is very similar to the 2001 Ryche offense that placed third in the EL in runs scored. Weaknesses: Though the Ryche offense is respectable against right-handed pitching, it isn't exactly overpowering. The middle three hitters in the Ryche lineup are all right-handed, and that is something that can be easily exploited. Outlook: Akron GM D.J. Shepard has clearly laid it all out on the line this year. He sacrificed several years from one of his aces, Tim Hudson, in exchange for one year rental Magglio Ordonez, sending a clear signal to the rest of the league that this is the year of the Ryche. Akron should have little trouble defending their title this season, though it should take considerably more than 81 wins to do so this year. The question is: how much further can they go? Last year, Akron took the Ridgebacks to seven games on the sheer strength of their starting pitching. Akron's starting staff is just as strong this year (and they still have no #4 pitcher), but their bullpen is much improved, as is their offense. The Ryche have flirted with greatness several times throughout BDBL history. If they're ever going to reach that height, this year is as good as any. Prediction: 1st-place. Pedro Martinez carries the Ryche into the post-season on his shoulders. Akron then defeats South Carolina and earns a post-season rematch against the Ridgebacks in the ELCS. Unfortunately for the Ryche, the magic they felt last November when they had the Ridgebacks pinned against the ropes is gone, as the Ridgebacks sweep their second playoff series to earn a return trip to the BDBL World Series. Chicago Black Sox Owner: John Gill Strengths: A strong starting staff, a deep bullpen and a solid lineup from one to eight. If the Black Sox make it to the playoffs, they could have one of the strongest pitching staffs in the league, as Beckett, Prior and Zambrano would all be available to pitch full-time. The bullpen is well-balanced, with Marte and Fyhrie holding lefties to a sub-600 OPS, and Urbina and Williamson holding righties to a sub-500 OPS. The lineup is well-built, with Castillo and Garciaparra setting the table for Sweeney, and Jones et al providing protection. Weaknesses: The three best pitchers on the Black Sox are each limited to no more than 127 innings this season, which means some combination of Burba (5.20 ERA), Dempster (5.38), Joey Hamilton (5.27) and Chan Ho Park (5.75) will be forced into a spot start every now and then. If the Hrbek Division race is a close one (and I think it will be), those spot starts could mean the difference between finishing in or out of the playoffs. Outlook: Before I wrote this, I didn't consider the Black Sox to be a contender in 2003. I knew they'd be a force in 2004, but I assumed they were still in a rebuilding stage. It was somewhat surprising to discover that the Black Sox can not only contend this season, but can very well win this division. It will be interesting to see where this patchwork pitching staff ranks in ERA at the end of the season. When Akron traded Mark Prior to their division rivals, I don't think they expected that trade to haunt them so soon. Prediction: 2nd-place. John Gill adds D.J. Shepard's name to his Christmas list while signing Mark Prior to an eight-year contract on Cutdown Day. Cleveland Rocks Owner: Mike Stein
Strengths: Two words: Barry Bonds. The numbers Bonds posted last year look almost fake. It's hard to believe that any player could ever dominate any sport like that. If Cleveland's bullpen isn't the best in the league, I don't know whose is. It's going to be next-to-impossible to score any runs off this team after the sixth inning. Reed and Nomo are a strong combo at the top of the rotation. Weaknesses: The Rocks came close to competing for the playoffs last year (but came up just short for the fourth year in a row), so Cleveland GM Mike Stein employed the same exact off-season strategy he used in 2002. He fired every hitter on the roster and went into the draft with no offense whatsoever. With $26 million to spend, and a deep free agent class calling, building an entire offense from scratch didn't seem so far-fetched. But instead of spreading all that cash out among six or seven bats, Cleveland dished out $16.5 million on Bonds, leaving them with no money for the rest of their lineup. As a result, I'm putting the over/under on the number of at-bats Bonds will get in the 2003 BDBL season at 150. Outlook: Can a team win a division title with an outstanding bullpen, two aces, the best hitter in baseball history and nothing else? We're about to find out. On paper, Bonds produces so many runs all by himself, he's practically an entire offense all by himself. But in practice, if there's no one on base when he steps to the plate, and no one of any threat batting behind him, he's not going to see a strike thrown over the plate all year long. Last year, Bonds was intentionally walked a record 48 times while surrounded in the lineup by Edgar Martinez and Manny Ramirez. This year, surrounded by Tony Womack and Scott Hatteberg, expect that record total to double - at least. Prediction: 3rd-place. After a surprising 4-2 start to the season, Stein trades every good, young player on the roster in a desperate attempt to win the division. But alas, the effort falls short once again. Meanwhile, the League Office officially allows Bonds to run directly from the on-deck circle to first base to save time. Atlanta Fire Ants Owner: Gene Patterson Strengths: A top-notch starting rotation headed by one of the game's best (and most expensive) pitchers. Should the Fire Ants make it to the post-season, Fossum and Lilly can each pitch full-time thanks to crossing the magic 100-inning threshold. And if Atlanta GM Gene Patterson finds himself in need of a missing piece of the puzzle or two, he has a ton of tasty trade bait to draw upon. Weaknesses: If you look up and down the Atlanta roster, one commonality jumps out at you: low on-base percentages. With the exceptions of Alex Ochoa (.361 in 280 AB's), no Fire Ant hitter has an OBP higher than .360. It's tough to score runs without first reaching base. Konerko, Anderson and Bell are all 20-homer hitters, but many of those longballs are likely to be of the solo variety. Outlook: After losing nearly 100 games last year, the Fire Ants have come a long way. But they still have a little way to go before they can be considered serious contenders for a division title. After dumping the bloated salaries of Mike Hampton and Ken Griffey, Jr. last season, Atlanta has now committed nearly $50 million over the next two years to two players. Although those two players are far more valuable than the two they dumped last year, two players may not be enough to make a significant difference to this franchise. Prediction: 4th-place. In the first meeting between the Hammerheads and Fire Ants, Matt Clement strikes out a record 20 Fire Ant batters, including five whiffs by Paul Konerko. Sidney Ponson's arm falls off his shoulder just watching it.
Stamford Zoots Owner: Paul Marazita
Strengths: See all those slashes above? After last November's shocking defeat at the hands of the Salem Cowtippers, Stamford GM Paul Marazita vowed to "get back to basics." In part, what this means is a return to the old-school ways of the Zoots, which placed heavy emphasis on part-timers, platoons and getting the right match-ups for the right situations. All those slashes above mean the Zoots have accomplished their goal. Of the 19 hitters on the Zoots roster, just one - one - collected more than 500 at-bats last season. Yet in any given situation, you can be assured that a hitter with an 800-plus OPS will be stepping to the plate. In addition to all those short-usage superstars, the Zoots also feature one of the best pitching staffs in the Ozzie League, including two lefties that should be a great asset against the lefty-heavy lineups of the Butler Division, and a strong bullpen filled with situational relievers. Weaknesses: One problem with relying on so many platoon players is that platoons can be exploited - as the Zoots learned last November. The other problem is that when you hand a team of platoon players over to a computer manager, the computer doesn't always make the best moves at the best times. As a result, the Zoots will need to win 70-percent of their away games this season - something that has never been a problem for this team in the past. Outlook: On paper, the Zoots certainly don't look like a league champion. But the same could have been said in each of the past four seasons. The Zoots are a championship-caliber team, and they will prove that once again this season. When you discover a formula that works, you stick with it. Paul Marazita's formula is a proven winner, and after taking a year off to regroup, the Zoots are back in full force, looking for a little retribution. Prediction: 1st-place and the OL championship. Marazita petitions the BDBL to move 30 Zoots home games to Puerto Rico and Japan to "expand the global presence of the BDBL." When the league recognizes this request as an obvious ploy to gain more away games for Stamford, the request is denied. Soon thereafter, the league is sued. Marazita out-manages Blazers manager Billy Romaniello in the OLDS, then defeats the Salem Cowtippers in the OLCS thanks to a few lucky breaks. The Zoots take the Ridgebacks to seven games in the BDBL World Series, but lose Game Seven on a bloop single by Ellis Burks, as the torch is officially passed from the Zoots to the Ridgebacks. The BDBL trophy, however, is not passed, as Marazita still refuses to part with it. Madison Fighting Mimes Owner: Brian Hicks Strengths: A talented group of starting pitchers that is - as I write - the best in the Ozzie League. Lopez posted numbers last year that were every bit as good as Greg Maddux's, though he costs just 1/155th of the price. Burnett is one of the toughest pitchers in baseball against right-handed hitters, allowing just a 535 OPS. Dessens and Batista aren't flashy by any means, but they're very solid pitchers at the bottom of the rotation. And then there's the X-factor: Johan Santana. That 609 overall OPS allowed is better than Johnson, Schilling, Oswalt and just about every other starting pitcher in baseball with the exception of Pedro Martinez. Though he's available to pitch just 118 innings, Santana would be a force in the playoffs. Weaknesses: To me, the most shocking part of the recently-completed draft (aside from the astonishing picks made by Billy Baseball in the $100k rounds) was the fact that Madison GM Brian Hicks failed to acquire a strong right-handed bat to insert into the middle of all those left-handers in his lineup. As it stands, the #3, #4 and #5 hitters in the Madison lineup are all lefties - something that can be easily exploited by Madison's age-old division rival Stamford. Of course, Hicks always has the option of swapping a lefty for a righty mid-season as he did last year, but right now, that lefty-heaviness is definitely a weakness for the Fighting Mimes. Outlook: Once again, the Madison Fighting Mimes find themselves with enough firepower to not only compete in this toughest-of-tough divisions, but win it outright. They came within a game of doing so in 2000, then finished a distant second last year despite winning 91 games. With the strongest pitching staff this franchise has ever assembled, this may finally be their year. A key mid-year pick-up or two would put them over the top. Prediction: 2nd-place. Once again, the Fighting Mimes fall just short of the Zoots, causing Brian Hicks to request a transfer out of the Butler Division. Bear Country and Oakland soon follow with similar requests. Eventually, Stamford is the only team in the division, and is given an automatic spot in the playoffs at the beginning of each season. Oddly enough, no one notices any difference. Bear Country Jamboree Owner: Matt Clemm Strengths: The best bullpen one-two punch in the Ozzie League and an MVP candidate batting third in the lineup. The Jamboree went all-out in the auction this year, spending $10 million on Dotel and Hammond. Though that was a steep price to pay, that investment will pay off when games are shortened to seven innings. The one-two combo of A-Rod and Thome just might be the best back-to-back combo of hitters in the league. Weaknesses: Beyond Wolf and Wakefield, the Bear Country starting rotation is not all that exciting. Reitsma will be hard-pressed to pitch as well for Bear Country as he did for the Reds, and the Jamboree will have a tough time winning games with Astacio or Thomson on the hill. After the front four, the rest of the Bear Country lineup is a bit weak, and with a lefty pitcher on the opposing hill, the threats from Rodriguez (784 OPS vs. LH) and Thome (855) are significantly less. Outlook: The Jamboree are still a few players shy of a division-winning team. The foundation is there, however, and with a little work and the right moves at the right times, the Jamboree could find themselves in contention for a playoff spot right through to the end of the season, much as they were last year. Prediction: 3rd-place. "Peteymania" washes over Bear Country, as fans flock to the stadium each day that Astacio takes the mound, chanting his name and waving Dominican flags. Eventually, the fever rubs off on GM Clemm, who begins comparing Astacio to Cy Young on the BDBL message board. His "Player A/Player B" comparisons become so tiresome that eventually he is banned from the board altogether. Oakland Homicide Owner: John Duel Strengths: From one to eight, there's not a dog in the Oakland lineup. The Homicide aren't going to win many games with the longball, but this lineup shouldn't hand any opposing pitcher too many easy innings, either. The Oakland defense is top-notch, with several Vg's and Ex's scattered throughout the diamond. Weaknesses: Back in the day, pitching was the annual strength of this franchise, but when guys like Schilling departed, they weren't replaced (not that a Curt Schilling could be replaced.) What's left is a collection of arms that all have promise and potential, but don't help much in terms of winning immediately. Outlook: The Homicide are a year or two away from making some noise, though they'll have to do so while facing the toughest obstacle in the league: playing in the Butler Division. At some time this season, Oakland may turn around and trade players like Cameron, Jordan and Polanco for future considerations. Given the competition in this division, that time may come sooner rather than later. Prediction: 4th-place. After Mike Cameron's 180th strikeout of the season, Oakland manager John Duel makes Cameron stay after practice to write, "I will not whiff again" fifty times on the chalkboard. The BDBL Player's Association protests to no avail.
Salem Cowtippers Owner: Mike Glander
Strengths: As always, the Cowtippers strive for balance, and this year's team is as balanced as any other in franchise history. The rotation is strong from one to four, the bullpen features several capable late-innings specialists, and the lineup doesn't have a weak link until you get to #8. Weaknesses: As was the case last year, Salem has no bench. It didn't effect this team at all last year, since all but one of the players in the starting lineup was a full-time starter, capable of hitting lefties as well as righties. But this year, the Salem lineup includes four positions with significant platoon weaknesses - weaknesses that can and will be exploited in the late innings. Outlook: For the first time since the inaugural season of 1999, the Salem Cowtippers have some serious competition in the Benes Division. With the Marlboro Hammerheads threatening to strip the 'Tippers of their fifth straight division crown, every win will be crucial. Unfortunately for both sides, neither team will have a chance to put their foot in the water and test it out before jumping into the race, as Salem visits Marlboro six times in Chapter One. As a result, we may have a good idea of how this race will play out by the middle of March. Prediction: 1st-place. With the fate of the division championship hanging in the balance, El Duque Hernandez is late in getting to his final start of the season. El Duque whips up a sensational story for the Salem media about how he was stranded on a paddleboat in the middle of Canobie Lake and swam to shore through shark-infested waters. Duque wins the game, clinching the division title. Salem defeats Los Altos in the OLDS, then lose to Stamford for the third time in BDBL playoffs history. Marlboro Hammerheads Owner: Ken "The Shark"
Kaminski Strengths: Thanks to off-season donations from Southern California- and Atlanta-based charitable foundations, the Hammerheads feature a strong pair of right-handers at the top of their rotation. Halladay is as good as any pitcher in the Ozzie League, and should be in contention for the OL Cy Young. Clement would have fetched Jarrod Washburn money on the open market were he a free agent, given the numbers he posted last year. The bullpen is solid, though homer-prone, and there isn't a bum in the starting lineup. Weaknesses: Though there aren't any bums in the Marlboro lineup, there also aren't many players that strike fear into the opposition. While players like Lowell and Hudson posted very respectable numbers, only Delgado and Sosa pose any threat to opposing right-handers. And against left-handers, the Marlboro lineup improves at only three positions. Marlboro's rotation beyond the front two is a bit weak, and the bullpen lacks a sure-thing stopper. Outlook: Marlboro GM Ken "The Shark" Kaminski has been thumping his chest over this team for quite a long time, and soon he'll have a chance to put his money where his Jaws are. There's no doubt that the Hammerheads have the personnel to compete. But in a race this close, the benefit of the doubt goes to the four-time champs, who I can promise won't go down without a fight. Prediction: 2nd-place. After dropping four of six games against Salem in Chapter One, Kaminski throws in the towel and puts Sosa, Clement, Appier and Delgado on the block. Two weeks later, after trading all four stars, Marlboro rolls out four wins in a row. Kaminski then puts a message on the board, asking for a power-hitting right-handed outfielder, a #2 pitcher, a #3 pitcher and a lefty-hitting first baseman. Two weeks after trading away his team's future to acquire these players, Marlboro loses four in a row and...you guessed it. This pattern continues throughout the year. (Hey, I've got to pump up my prediction rating somehow!) Great Lakes Sphinx Owner: Scott Romonosky Strengths: The Sphinx feature a strong bullpen, a quality #3 and #4 hitter, and a very deep bench. If you're wondering where all the at-bats on the free agent market went this winter, look no further. The Sphinx lead the league in MLB at-bats with 7,896, including over 4,000 at-bats in the outfield alone (which explains why I had no #4 outfielder coming out of the draft.) Piazza and Gonzalez are a formidable righty/lefty combo in the heart of the lineup, and Benitez and Sauerbeck are a formidable righty/lefty combo in the bullpen. Weaknesses: In the BDBL, quality counts more than quantity, and unfortunately for Sphinx fans, the quality of all those at-bats isn't on par with the other teams in this division (other than Manchester, of course.) The rotation, led by Burkett, is the weakest in the division, and the setup men in the pen are second-rate as well. Outlook: At an average age of 28.9 (counting farm players), the Great Lakes offense can use an infusion of youth. With Benitez, Ligtenberg, Mondesi and Lofton as trade bait, the Sphinx could make some noise at the trade table this summer if they chose to do so. The competition in the Benes Division is stronger than it has been in years, so now would be as good a time as any to begin a rebuilding effort. Prediction: 3rd-place. Scandal rocks the BDBL when Mike Piazza and notorious womanizer Omar Vizquel are caught in a compromising position in the locker room showers. "It's not what it looked like, I swear!," Vizquel protests. "I was choking on a burrito, and Mike was giving me the Heimlich." Of course, Vizquel is unable to explain why he was eating in the showers. Manchester Irish Rebels Owner: Jim Doyle Strengths: For the second year in a row, Manchester GM Jim Doyle is using his patented all-defense/no-offense strategy. Going around the horn, the Rebels will have an Av-armed catcher behind the plate, a Pr first baseman, an Ex second baseman, an Av third baseman and shortstop, a Vg left fielder, an Ex center fielder and an Ex right fielder. Then there's the bench, which is also filled with Vg's and Ex's. If you're impressed by this sort of thing, this is all very impressive. Weaknesses: The Irish Rebels finished the season last year with an Ozzie League record-low of 577 runs scored. With the loss of Vlad Guerrero and the significant decline of Boone, expect Manchester to break that record once again this season. Outlook: It's tough - I dare say impossible - for a team to win without scoring any runs. If the Irish Rebels had the greatest pitching staff in the league, I might give them the benefit of the doubt and predict a .500 record. But sadly, Manchester doesn't have the best pitching staff in the league. Unfortunately, aside from Wagner and possibly Milton and Wood, the Irish Rebels don't have a lot of trade bait, either. So they'll have to rely upon their GM being alert and stealing players off the free agent wire with the second-best slot (or best, if you assume that Geisel will be asleep at the wheel once again) throughout the summer. And a long summer it will be in Manchester. Prediction: 4th-place. The ghost of Darryl Kile comes back to haunt the Salem Cowtippers when Kile throws a no-hitter against Salem. Unfortunately, thanks to Manchester's inability to score runs, the Irish Rebels still manage to lose the game.
Los Altos Undertakers Owner: Jeff Paulson Strengths: As always, the Undertakers feature a parade of relievers - each one more annoying and frustrating than the one before. As usual, there are relievers for every conceivable situation, from lefties that get lefties out (Eischen) to lefties that get righties out (Remlinger) to righties that get righties out (Koplove, Riedling, et al) to righties that get lefties out (Nichting.) I'm sure there are relievers on this team that are specifically used in ground ball or fly ball situations, home games or away games, and full moon or half moon, but I don't have time to research them that thoroughly. The starting lineup is constructed in much the same way, with a pinch-hitter-turned-starter for every conceivable situation. Projecting that starting lineup above was harder than projecting the GNP of Bolivia - in yen. Weaknesses: I can't figure out what Los Altos GM Jeff Paulson has up his sleeve in terms of this starting rotation. I know he has some master plan in the works, yet if the post-season began today, the Undertakers' rotation would be Moyer, Schmidt, Franklin and Sparks. I'm not sure how the Undertakers will get through one chapter with that rotation, never mind the playoffs, though I have no doubt whatsoever that they'll finish Chapter One with at least 18 wins. I also have no doubt that by the end of this season, that rotation will look much different. Outlook: At some point this season, Jeff Paulson will turn around and trade one of his three big college players (Kyle Sleeth, Brad Sullivan or Rickie Weeks) for a big-time starting pitcher. He'll then fill that empty spot with another prime college arm. And when he does, I will post a message on the forum that will simply say, "No comment" - as none will be necessary. Unlike last year, the Undertakers face some stiff competition for the division title this season. But even if Los Altos somehow fails to win the division title, the wild card is almost guaranteed, thanks to the fact that they will be facing the Swamp Rats and Lightning 16 times each this season. Though the Blazers have the better team on paper, I have confidence that Paulson can out-manage Billy Romaniello and earn the top seed in this division. Prediction: 1st-place. The league finally puts an age limit on farm players when Jeff Paulson attempts to draft the unborn fetus of Mia Hamm and Nomar Garciaparra. Meanwhile, the Undertakers make it to the post-season for the fourth time in five years, but lose to the Salem Cowtippers in seven tough games in the OL Division Series. Though the Undertakers' starting lineup throughout the series resembles the Tampa Bay Devil Rays' bench, Salem manager Mike Glander calls it the most realistic-looking championship ballclub he's faced all year. New Milford Blazers Owner: Billy Baseball Strengths: There simply aren't that many holes in the Blazers' roster. The starting rotation is solid from one-to-four with a quality 200+ inning starter in each position. The bullpen is very deep, with one outstanding closer and six quality setup men. And the lineup is stacked from one to eight, and is so deep, I've projected a .300 hitter to bat in the eighth spot. This team is also filled with base-stealers, and could challenge the Litchfield Lightning team record in that category. Weaknesses: If there's one Achilles Heel with this Blazers team, it is a lack of on-base hitters. Of the eight hitters in the Blazers lineup, only three have an OBP higher than .360, and only one (Helton) has an OBP above .365. Outlook: With so many power-hitters with low OBP's, the strategy would normally be to adopt an Earl Weaver managerial style and play for the three-run homer. Yet if no one is on base, it's tough to hit a three-run homer, isn't it? Also, New Milford moved into a pitcher-friendly ballpark last year, and given the speed they have in the lineup, perhaps they'd be better off playing small ball instead. It will be interesting to see how manager Billy Romaniello handles this challenge. It will also be interesting to see whether Romaniello's new assistant GM is able to talk Billy into letting go of some of that young trade bait mid-year so that the Blazers can keep pace with the Undertakers in the Trade Wars. Prediction: 2nd place, and the OL wild card. Thanks to a record of 27-5 against the Lightning and Swamp Rats, the Blazers squeeze their way into the post-season after four consecutive years of 90 or more losses. Unfortunately, their glory is short-lived, as they are swept by the Zoots in the Division Series. Romaniello immediately blames the series loss on the software. Gillette Swamp Rats Owner: John Bochicchio Strengths: The Swamp Rats have some attractive trade bait in Daal and Boehringer. Weaknesses: I've projected a platoon of Eric Karros and Brad Fullmer batting #3 for the Swamp Rats this year, which pretty much says all you need to know about the Gillette offense. The rotation, once you get past Daal, is not pretty. Outlook: Thank god for the Lightning! If not for them, Gillette would likely finish in last place in this division. Unfortunately, there appears to be nothing keeping this team from finishing with 100 losses, which would give them one of the lowest tie-breakers in the league in next year's auction. Prediction: 3rd-place. John Bochicchio is suspended from the BDBL after it is discovered that he has been betting on baseball. However, after it is revealed that Bochicchio only bet on games he played against the Lightning, Glander reinstates him. "Gillette against Litchfield?," says Glander. "That's not baseball!" Litchfield Lightning Owner: Phil Geisel Strengths: The Lightning have a cool new logo. Weaknesses: Too many to possibly list. Outlook: Litchfield GM Phil Geisel's bizarre decision to keep only eight players heading into the auction - and accepting $7 million in penalties by doing so - has to rank among the worst decisions ever made in the history of the BDBL (right alongside some other decisions made by the leader of this team.) The Lightning should shatter the BDBL records for most losses in a season and fewest runs scored. I actually fear playing this team, because if I lose even one game all season, I won't sleep for a week. The 2003 Lightning is what happens to a team when their owner is so apathetic he doesn't pick up a free agent in the middle of the season for four straight years and makes only a handful of trades. The Lightning are basically the Minnesota Twins of the late 90's without the good farm system. Prediction: 4th-place, and the worst record in BDBL history. With attendance at an all-time low, and the few fans that do show up to Thunder Park wearing bags over their heads, the Lightning are forced to make drastic cuts to the budget due to their enormous loss in revenue. Since they were barely used anyway, the Litchfield scouting director and GM are both fired, and post-game buffets are eliminated as well. The latter development leads to big problems in the Lightning clubhouse when a famished Bartolo Colon has to be restrained from attacking Neifi Perez. "Get in my belly!!", yells Colon, as Perez hides behind the trainer's table. |