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March 27, 2003 The Annual BDBL Farm ReportDeep down inside, we all believe we own the best farm system in the BDBL. But the question is: what do the experts think? Every year at this time, I collect top prospect lists from various well-respected publications in order to answer that question. This year, I've collected lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, TeamOne Baseball, The Prospect Report, StrikeThree.com and our very own BDBL Prospects Survivor challenge. (Note: because Sickels did not publish a top-100 list this year, I used a top-100 list he released via e-mail back in January.) The methodology of this little analysis is pretty simple. I give 100 points to the #1 prospect on each list, 99 points to the #2 prospect, and so forth. I then add up all the points for each player, then rank the players based on overall points. Below is a table showing the total number of points each team accumulated using this system, along with their ranking this year and for each of the past three years. What follows is my breakdown and analysis of each team, along with the overall rankings (in parentheses) for each ranked player.
#1 Salem Cowtippers Comments: Isn't it odd that a franchise that has been accused of pumping and dumping prospects throughout each of the past four years has consistently ranked among the top ten in this unbiased study year after year? How can that be, I wonder. The additions of Harden and Lee pushed this team's point total above the 3,000 mark. (Now you all know my true motivation for waving the white flag this year: I just wanted to make sure I was ranked #1 in this study.) Teixeira was the #1 ranked prospect in baseball by six of the seven publications (with only TeamOne objecting to his #1 status.) Not only do the Cowtippers have a ranked prospect at every position except second base, but they have quality backup prospects at each position as well. Amazingly enough, the second-best player on the Salem farm isn't even eligible for this study. Of the unranked players, Matsui would probably be a top-ten prospect. Bakker, Milledge, Lee and Clement would likely all be borderline top-100. Humber and Slayden both have excellent chances of being among the first ten players chosen in the 2004 MLB amateur draft. And Parra could crack the top-100 by this time next year. #2 South Carolina Sea Cats Comments: Despite the graduations of Hank Blalock, Nick Johnson, Matt LeCroy, Kevin Mench, Josh Phelps and Kirk Saarloos to the 35-man roster, the Sea Cats still have the second-best farm system in the BDBL. South Carolina owns four prospects in the top-50, and each one of them was acquired within the past twelve months. Reyes was a 3rd-round selection in the farm draft, Stokes was a Chapter Five pick-up, Soriano was acquired via trade (for Tom Glavine) and Huber was acquired in a pre-season deal with the Allentown Ridgebacks. In fact, of all the prospects on the Sea Cats farm, I don't think one was acquired before 2002. Sisco, South Carolina's #1 pick in this year's farm draft, could easily be a top-30 prospect at this time next year. And keep an eye on that DeCastro kid. I hear good things about him. #3 Stamford Zoots Comments: The eerie similarities between the Stamford Zoots and Allentown Ridgebacks franchises extend all the way to the farm, where both teams own two top-ten prospects. Of the eleven unranked prospects, nine of them are unranked because they're still amateurs. Sensing that the minor league well was dry, Zoots mastermind Paul Marazita used six of his eight picks on college players. In contrast, the Zoots owned just two amateur prospects (Murton and Young) in the four years prior to this one. Including prepster Young, the Zoots could have no fewer than five 2003 first-rounders in this June's amateur - er, I mean, "first year player" - draft. (That's almost Manchester-like!) All five will undoubtedly be ranked in next year's study. One interesting bit of trivia: Stamford's farm includes two players that attended Marazita's alma mater of William and Mary College. Can you name them both? #4 Oakland Homicide Comments: Making the biggest leap of any team over the past year is the Oakland Homicide, who went from #22 a year ago to #4 today. Next Christmas, the Oakland farm director will be sending a basket of fruit to the Madison Fighting Mimes and Salem Cowtippers organizations, who each helped the Homicide make that leap. Of the seven ranked prospects on Oakland's farm, two came from Madison and four came from Salem. The Oakland farm should see a lot of turnover over the next year, as Rodriguez, Brazelton, Restovich, Linden, Rivera and Olivo should all graduate to the 35-man roster. This is the first time Oakland's farm has ranked in the top half of the BDBL, and it may be the last time for a while. #5 Chicago Black Sox Comments: With the graduations of two top-five prospects from last year's list - Josh Beckett (#1) and Mark Prior (#5) - the Black Sox have fallen all the way down to #5 in this year's ranking. I still lie awake at night ruing my decision to take Kevin Youkilis over Victor Martinez at the free agent deadline last year. Chicago farm director John Gill did well for himself at this year's farm draft, snagging four ranked prospects out of six picks. Three of Chicago's unranked prospects (Smith, Howington and Johnson) were ranked a year ago, but fell out of the rankings this year with poor performances. Next year, Hamilton (who ranked #3 just two years ago) may join that list. #6 Litchfield Lightning Comments: I know what you're thinking: "The Litchfield Lightning in the top ten?? That's unnatural!" And you're right. But the Lightning have a trio of young pitchers that would be the envy of any team, except maybe the San Francisco Giants or Oakland A's. Having three top-25 prospects all a year away from helping out the big club will go a long way toward rebuilding this once-great franchise. In the farm draft, Litchfield focused on getting low-risk/ low-reward players that could be of use within the next year or two. Time will tell how well that strategy paid off. Of the unranked players, Aubrey is tearing up collegiate pitching to the tune of a .500 average as I type. D'Antona is also hitting .500, though in only a quarter as many at-bats as Aubrey. Gerut enjoyed a tremendous spring, and looks like the frontrunner for the backup outfield job in Cleveland. The big question in Litchfield is: how long will Bechler occupy a spot on the 55-man roster? My bet is that he's still there come Cutdown Day. #7 Marlboro Hammerheads Comments: Despite trading such mega-talents as Drew Henson and Hanley Ramirez, the Hammerheads own a top-ten farm team for the third time in the past four years. Marlboro should rank even higher next year, as Mathis, McBride and Crosby have the potential to move up the prospect charts. Of the unranked players, Brownlie has top-50 potential if he ever starts pitching for a professional team, and if Anderson can regain his health, he could easily show up on next year's list as well. Marlboro GM Sharky Kaminski's strategy, whether it applies to his rotisserie team or his farm club, is to go for the hot hand or the "Flavor of the Week." Sometimes it works (Hanley Ramirez) and sometimes it doesn't (Choo Freeman, Alexis Gomez, Corey Hart). #8 Manchester Irish Rebels Comments: Manchester GM Jim Doyle has been a pioneer in the world of GM strategy and team-building philosophy. His all-defense strategy is by now famous throughout the world of fantasy baseball. His farm-building strategy is nearly as intriguing, though it has gotten very little publicity up until this point. Rather than pour through countless web sites, books and magazines in search of the best players for his farm, Jim merely runs his finger down the list of players selected in the first round of the previous MLB amateur draft, then takes the first player who's not already spoken for. His philosophy is that major league scouts have already spent countless hours doing the research, so why duplicate that effort? This saves a lot of time for Jim to scan the free agent waiver wire, looking for any Ex defenders that might have slipped through the cracks. In some cases (Kazmir, Loewen) this farm strategy has worked brilliantly. In others (Bootcheck, McCurdy), it has worked not so well. #9 Southern Cal Slyme Comments: Since their rebuilding period began, the Southern Cal Slyme have traded away Roy Halladay, Ichiro Suzuki, Mike Timlin, Scott Williamson, Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf. They also had the #1 pick in this year's farm draft. Yet their farm system barely ranks among the top ten. One of the reasons for that is the Slyme took some major leaps of faith with toolsy, unproven, raw talents like Ramirez and Henson (passing up Austin Kearns to do so, I might add.) It's possible that both Ramirez and Henson will both be top-ten prospects in next year's study. It's also possible that Phil Geisel will win People magazine's "Most Beautiful Person" honor next year. Rauch, acquired in the Ichiro trade, is attempting to come back from a torn labrum, and the list of pitchers that have been able to successfully do so is about as long as Michael Jackson's nose. Of the unranked prospects, Chen (the #35 prospect in baseball last year) has the best shot at making this list next year. #10 Villanova Mustangs Comments: I hate to say this, because I don't want it to sound overly negative, but the Villanova farm is...well...rather boring, isn't it? There's really no one here to get excited about other than Wainwright - and he's just another great arm in the Atlanta Braves minor league pitching factory. (*Yawn*) Marte looked great a year ago, but followed that up with a somewhat...boring...season. Kozlowski has a great, live arm, but I always get suspicious of any pitcher the Braves decide isn't worthy of keeping. Karp, Bonser, Castillo, Guthrie? Yawn, yawn, yawn and yawn. Where's the 18-year-old five-tool stud from the Dominican with the electric bat speed and questionable passport? Where's the 20-year-old flame-thrower who could turn into the next Roger Clemens if only he could harness that heat? Where's the nearly-ready-for-prime-time slugger or future #1 ace? I just don't see them here. The Mustangs' farm is a lot like the Pittsburgh Pirates' farm: nice, but unexciting. #11 Kansas Law Dogs Comments: My, how the mighty have fallen. Last year, Berroa was ranked #25 in this study. This year, Berroa received only one mention - #99 on Sickels's list. Coincidentally enough, another Kansas prospect, Chad Hermanson, also ranked #25 in this study three years ago. Another toolsy Kansas prospect, Antonio Perez, ranked #14 in this study two years ago. You see a pattern? As always, the Kansas farm includes a ton of Royals prospects - four to be exact. There are a lot of young, raw, toolsy players on the Kansas farm, both at the plate (Lopez, Wright, Escobar, Berroa, McPherson) and on the mound (Floyd, Tyler.) To paraphrase Kansas GM Chris Luhning, there seem to be "too many reaches with those prospects." #12 Allentown Ridgebacks Comments: As if having Randy Johnson for two more years, Roy Oswalt for seven, and Jake Peavy for as long as they'd like isn't enough, the Ridgebacks also own the best pitching prospect in baseball. Enough to make you want to puke, isn't it? The biggest mystery of this year's study is how all seven minor league experts could have missed the great Felix Diaz. There were 189 players ranked by the seven publications in all, yet no one even listed Diaz as an honorable mention? Boy, will they all be embarrassed when Diaz becomes the next Derek Lowe! Believe it or not, the #9 prospect in baseball (and Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year) was acquired with the second pick of the Chapter Four free agent pick-up period last year. If you're wondering how the Ridgebacks could have built such a dominant empire in less than a year, wonder no more. The only good news for the rest of us is this: with the graduations of Foppert and Baldelli to the 35-man roster, combined with Allentown's distaste for amateur talent and having the last pick in every free agent pick-up period this year, the Ridgebacks's farm cupboard should be mighty bare a year from now. I say, "should be", because you never know when Emperor DiStefano might stumble upon the next Baldelli. #13 Gillette Swamp Rats Comments: The Swamp Rats rank higher in this year's study than in any past year thanks to a pair of trades they made since the middle of last season. In fairness, Gillette should rank much higher in this year's study. The only reason they don't is because StrikeThree, The Prospect Report and Sickels don't consider Matsui a rookie. Of the publications that did include him in their rankings, Matsui was ranked #4 by the BDBL, #2 by Baseball Prospectus, #8 by Baseball America and #1 by TeamOne (that's right - #1). Matsui, like Albert Pujols before him, could very well end up posting all-star numbers while earning minimum wage next season. Just ask the Hippos how valuable that can be. Gonzalez held steady at #16 overall, and is probably two years away from being a minimum-wage all-star himself. Traber was only ranked by two publications: #24 by TeamOne and #56 by Sickels. Chulk was also a top-50 prospect (#41 to be exact) in the eyes of TeamOne. Johnny Bo, if you're ever looking to switch careers, I'd give TeamOne a call. #14 New Milford Blazers Comments: With the #2 overall pick in this year's farm draft, New Milford selected one of only three unranked players (Valentine) in the entire first round. In fact, of the seven players drafted by New Milford last January, only one (Greinke) is ranked. This is nothing new for New Milford. With the #1 pick in the 2000 draft, the Blazers selected Luis Rivas, Ryan Owens and Alex Fernandez (the outfielder.) With the #1 pick in 2001, New Milford elected not to use any of their picks, passing on the best farm draft pool ever - a pool that included Roy Oswalt, Mark Prior, Hank Blalock, Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki among many others. In 2002, the Blazers slipped to 8th in the draft, and enjoyed their best farm draft ever, selecting Gosling, Tallett, Phillips and Craig Anderson (though that bumper crop was certainly not worth writing home about.) Most of the top prospects the Blazers have acquired during their four-year rebuilding plan (Alfonso Soriano, Austin Kearns, Sean Burroughs, C.C. Sabathia, etc.) have graduated to the 35-man roster (though not necessarily New Milford's 35-man roster.) But as those players have graduated, the Blazers haven't replaced them with more top prospects. As a result, their farm is now relatively barren and the Blazers have little to trade now that they're finally in a position to do so. Next year, after Cuddyer and Tallet graduate, the Blazers should easily rank among the bottom two or three teams in this study. #15 Akron Ryche Comments: The Ryche scouted and developed two of the best prospects ever to emerge from a BDBL farm club: Adam Dunn and Mark Prior. Unfortunately, they traded them both. The Salem Cowtippers are hoping that pattern continues after the trades of ranked prospects Rich Harden, Cliff Lee, Brad Lidge, Kris Honel and Ben Broussard this season. Had the Ryche kept those five, they would rank #2 in this study. But for some strange reason, Akron GM D.J. Shepard is more concerned with winning a BDBL championship than with doing well in this farm study. Hafner is the odds-on favorite to win the ALNJROY (American League Non-Japanese Rookie of the Year.) Drew (who is ranked here only because amateurs are included in the BDBL list) is the odds-on favorite to be the #1 pick in the 2004 amateur draft, and Verlander should be right behind him. Over the next year, expect Pie and Pope to leap into the top 50. In fact, I wouldn't bet against Akron having a top-ten farm club in next year's study despite all of these trades. #16 Great Lakes Sphinx Comments: While jotting down the names of the Sphinx farm team, I was startled to see players from the Zigmund Era still remaining on this roster. Niekro and Harville were both Zigmund discoveries, and though neither has really panned out, they still occupy a spot on the farm roster to this day. Just for kicks, I went back to our inaugural farm draft, and I found only eight players drafted five years ago that are still on a BDBL farm team. Oddly enough, two of those players (Munson and Werth) are on the Sphinx. Anderson, Rogers, Baker and Belisle are all leftovers from a previous regime as well, though none have progressed as prospects. How appropriate that a team called the "Sphinx" should carry so many ancient artifacts on their farm roster! #17 Atlanta Fire Ants Comments: Last year, I think I struck a nerve when I pointed out that one of Atlanta's farm players, Alan Webb, hadn't been heard from in a long, long time. Since then, it seems as though Atlanta has doubled their scouting department's budget. Despite falling from #11 to #17 in this study, the Fire Ants's farm has actually improved quite a bit. How is that possible? Well, for starters, both Arnold and Bullington (two mid-season free agent pick-ups last year) are better, safer, more projectable pitchers than Nick Neugebauer, who nearly single-handedly vaulted this farm team to #11 last year all by himself. If Claussen can return from Tommy John surgery (and there's no reason to think that he won't), the Fire Ants could have a very good pitching staff within the next three years. Over the next year, expect Francoeur, Bullington, Claussen, Gautreau, Haren, Bankston and Patterson to jump up this list and give the Atlanta farm system their best ranking ever. #18 Houston Heatwave Comments: Hard to believe the same farm system that once produced Barry Zito and Eric Hinske now has no prospects in the top 50. That's the bad news. The good news is that Greene, Griffin and Tsao could all easily be top-50 prospects next year, and Patterson, Cust, Hendrickson and Robertson could all help the Heatwave as early as next year. Of all the players on the Heatwave farm, Tsao probably has the highest ceiling. The only problem is that he pitches for Colorado, and DMB isn't exactly consistent when it comes to Colorado pitchers (see Brian Bohanon, 2001 vs. Pedro Astacio, 1999.) There are over 800 prospects listed in John Sickels's latest prospect book, yet seven of the players on Houston's farm are so obscure and/or unremarkable, they're not even listed in the book! Of the unranked players that are listed, there are three "C's", one "C+", one "C-" and one "B". I think it's time for an overhaul. #19 Los Altos Undertakers Comments: Okay, we've all had some fun at Jeff's expense concerning his farm team, but is there a method behind his apparent madness? With the minor league and college wells seemingly dried up, Jeff attempted to get a leg up on the competition by cornering the market on high schoolers. But along with the high ceilings attached to teenagers comes a very high risk. Of the 15 high schoolers drafted in the first round of the 1999 draft, only one (Josh Beckett) or maybe two (Brett Myers) are useful Major Leaguers right now, and only one other (Josh Hamilton) is a ranked prospect (though Hamilton's status is certainly up in the air.) The 2000 MLB draft produced a few more ranked prospects (six), but out of the 18 high schoolers drafted in the first round, none are useful Major Leaguers today. Right now, Los Altos is using five farm spots on high school players - two of whom aren't even draft-eligible until 2004 or 2005. Even if one of these prospects does pan out, he won't see the Undertakers's 35-man roster until 2008 (assuming he advances one level per year.) Not many teams can afford that kind of patience. Certainly not a contending team that can use the trade bait. #20 Bear Country Jamboree Comments: Though none can be classified as "future impact players," the Jamboree have several players that are close to being useful Major League players. Harvey and Young should be full-time contributors next year, and Nix has progressed so rapidly, the Rangers are talking about an April cup of coffee. Hill and Spurling should see some time in the big leagues as well. Bear Country's farm-building philosophy has been to target players that will help the big club sooner rather than later; mixing safer, lower-ceiling prospects like Bob File with potential trade bait like Lastings Milledge or Hideki Matsui. Of course, given the impact (or lack thereof) that John Burkett had on Bear Country's 2002 season, Bear Country would have been much better off holding onto Matsui in hindsight. #21 Cleveland Rocks Comments: For the fourth year in a row, the Cleveland Rocks farm club ranks among the bottom five teams in this study. Like the Jamboree, the Rocks tend to focus on players that will help their big club immediately. To a certain extent, they've been very successful in doing so. Brendan Donnelly, Jorge Julio and Tyoshi Shinjo were all products of the Cleveland farm system, for example. But while this strategy has certainly helped the Cleveland bullpen, it has hurt them at the trade table. Without marketable farm players, the Rocks simply can't compete at the trade table against teams with a wealth of desirable farm talent. With no farm players to use as trade bait, Cleveland has opted instead to trade players like Roy Halladay and Joel Piniero in order to keep up with the competition. Given the results of that decision, investing a little more resources into the farm team might not be a bad idea. #22 Madison Fighting Mimes Comments: Last year, Madison got 43% of their total points in this study from Joe Crede alone. The year before, Madison got 65% of their total points from Crede. Now that Crede has graduated, the Fighting Mimes farm (which has never been ranked that high to begin with) is at an all-time low. Dontrelle "Whatchutalkinbout" Willis gives the Mimes their first top-50 prospect since Crede and Felipe Lopez in 2001. I was surprised to see German ranked so high, but three of our panel of experts ranked him #42 or higher. Next year, Madison can expect Santana, Adams and possibly Swisher and/or the newly-acquired Fritz to challenge for the top-50 themselves. #23 Wapakoneta Hippos Comments: Few franchises in the BDBL can claim the success that the Hippos franchise has had over the years, for the simple reason that few BDBL farms have produced two impact players like Tim Hudson and Albert Pujols. Yet today, the Hippos farm is merely a collection of pimply-faced teenagers and minor leaguers whose names sound vaguely familiar. Loney and Fielder, a couple of first-round high schoolers chosen in last year's MLB draft, enjoyed impressive campaigns in rookie ball, but are a long way from The Show. Gobble and Liriano have impressive young arms, and could each move into the top-50 over the next twelve months. Of course, each could also blow out his arm and never be heard from again. Of the unranked prospects, Ramirez is the most intriguing. His career minor league numbers: 223 innings, 221 K's...16 walks. That's downright Schilling-like. Or is it Lowe-like? I always get those two confused. #24 Nashville Funkadelic Comments: Finally, making the biggest free-fall over the past twelve months, from #6 all the way down to last-place, I give you the Nashville Funkadelic. What caused this dramatic fall from grace? Mostly, Betemit is to blame. Betemit ranked #8 overall on last year's list, but fell all the way to #40 after a sub-par year at the Triple-A level. To be fair, he did play the entire season at the Triple-A level at just 21 years of age, he was injured for most of the season, and he did pick it up a bit in the second half. It's just my personal opinion, but I think people got a little too excited about Betemit last year (just as they got too excited about Angel Berroa last year and Hanley Ramirez this year), and Betemit should have never been ranked in the top-10 given what we knew about him a year ago. #40 certainly seems more reasonable. Of course, I'm guilty of this crime myself, as I listed him #12 on my own list last year. Another reason for the steep decline is the trade of Marlon Byrd, who was sacrificed for Roberto Alomar during last year's championship run. Things should get better for this farm, as Baker, Madritsch and Munoz should all be ranked at this time next year, and Betemit and Torres should both improve in the rankings. |