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May 1, 2003 The Ten Biggest Stories of 2003We've officially arrived at the one-third mark of the 2003 BDBL season, and you know what that means: time for the top ten stories of the 2003 season. Story #10: The Stamford Road Warriors It is one of the biggest mysteries in the BDBL since the league's inception: why are the Stamford Zoots so mediocre at home and yet so unbeatable on the road? The following table breaks down the home and road records for the Zoots since 1999:
Of course, home/road splits have always looked a little funky in the BDBL. In fact, the difference in home/road splits actually caused three owners to quit the league once upon a time! The following table breaks down all BDBL teams other than the Zoots through the first four seasons:
The reasons for this discrepancy have already been debated and discussed ad nauseum, so I won't add to that discussion now. It is fascinating, though, that the Zoots play nearly 200 points better on the road (198 to be exact), while the rest of the league plays just 41 points better. Why such a discrepancy? More than any other factor, the MP is blamed for this difference in home/road splits. Stamford manager Paul Marazita plays most of his away games against the MP, and nearly all of his home games are managed by his own MP. However, he's not the only "MP" manager in the BDBL. In fact, there are eight others, according to our Teams page. The combined records of those eight teams so far this season? 92-110 (.455) at home, 123-107 (.535) on the road - a difference of 80 points. That's a higher split than the average team, but still a far cry from Stamford's 242-point difference in home/road splits this year. So what's the story? Why is Stamford's home/road split so much more drastic than any other team in the BDBL? The short answer is: I don't have the foggiest idea. Of course, there are several theories worth considering. Maybe, because the Zoots employ more specialized role players than the average team, the MP has a tougher time managing the team than a human manager. Maybe Stamford's home ballpark is abnormally unsuited for the types of players on Stamford's roster. Maybe Marazita is the most brilliant manager in baseball history, and his talents are being wasted working in the field of law. Maybe Chuck and Bryan were right, and Marazita is cheating. (I'm kidding! I'm kidding!) I played around a bit with BASE in order to find some answers to this age-old mystery, and all it did was confuse me even more. Check out this table:
Okay...so if the theory is that the Zoots (and all other BDBL teams) perform better on the road because human managers are able to make better substitutions than computers, then how do you explain this table?? The relief pitchers used by Marazita have posted an ERA over a full run higher than the ones used by the computer, and the pinch hitters selected by the computer are FAR outperforming those selected by Marazita! After all is said and done, and every theory has been weighed and analyzed, there just is no good, rational explanation for this. No matter what the reason is, winning nearly three-quarters of your games under any circumstance is both stunning and impressive - especially when the sample size is over 300 games! It makes you wonder how many games the Zoots would have won over the past four years if Marazita had managed every one of those games. It also makes you wonder how many championships the Zoots would have won if we played in a "centralized" league where all games were managed by the MP. Hmm...maybe that's not such a bad idea after all... Story #9: The Tale of Two Sylvesters Since father (Bob) and son (Bobby) Sylvester faced each other in the 2000 ELDS, their two franchises have gone in opposite directions. Kentucky (now Wapakoneta) followed up their division-winning 2000 season by winning 74 and 81 games over the next two years. The Hippos are now riding high in first place (though their lead is down to just one game), threatening to win their second division title in the past four years. The Hippos are currently in second place in the Eck League in runs scored, thanks to the one-two punch of Shawn Green (.293/.364/.679) and Albert Pujols (.330/.386/.554), and the bewildering one-chapter performance of Brian Daubach (.415/.440/.805). The Wapakoneta pitching staff ranks right in the middle of the Eck League in ERA, and has been carried by the unlikely dominance of free agent pick-up Jon Lieber (11-0, 1.81). While the Hippos have already used up 60-percent of Lieber's innings, they've also just added two quality arms at the last trading deadline, giving them a good shot at staying at the top of their division the rest of the way. At the other end of the spectrum is dad's Southern Cal team. Since winning their second-straight division title in 2000, the Slyme have gone downhill quickly. They finished in second place with a 72-88 record in 2001, then went 48-112 last season - the worst record in the BDBL. This year, the Slyme are threatening to break the New Milford Blazers' all-time BDBL record for futility. After two chapters of play, Southern Cal owns a record of 13-41 - a .241 winning percentage. If they maintain this pace (and there's no reason to think they won't), the Slyme will finish the year with 121 losses, which would top the old BDBL record by a comfortable margin of seven games. Looking ahead, the Hippos will lose Green to free agency after this season, along with Trot Nixon and Mariano Rivera. But they have Adam Dunn and Pujols locked in through the next decade - mostly at salaries well below market value, which means they'll have tons of money to spend on free agents. Southern Cal, on the other hand, doesn't seem to have much to look forward to. They have a ton of players (Juan Encarnacion, Shea Hillenbrand, Travis Lee, Edgar Renteria, Vernon Wells, Dannys Baez, Chad Bradford, Jason Marquis and Joel Piniero) locked in through the 2005 season, but it's hard to envision a championship-caliber team built upon that core of talent. So while the younger Sylvester seems to be enjoying an extended time in the sun, the older Sylvester appears to be fading into the sunset. Say it ain't so, Bob. Say it ain't so. Story #8: Wackiest...Season...Ever? We've all seen a lot of wacky stuff happen through the first four years of this league: game-winning grand slam home runs being hit by pitchers, one of the best hitting teams in the league being no-hit by a mediocre pitcher, a team getting one hit over 27 straight innings in a two-game series, yet winning both games. For the most part, though, when all is said and done, the final stats at the end of each season seem to be relatively close to what we all expected. This season, however, seems to be filled with unexpected performances that are so bizarre, they are hard to believe. Aside from the collective team collapses of the Blazers and Cowtippers, and the ridiculous numbers that Barry Bonds has posted (all of which I cover in other stories), check out some of these performances so far this year:
There certainly appears to be no rhyme nor reason to this season. Story #7: Piecing Together Another Division Title How do those Los Altos Undertakers do it? Year after year, they look pitiful on paper, yet year after year (except 2000), they completely dominate their division. Last year, the Undertakers won more games than any team in BDBL history while fielding a lineup that looked like a watered-down version of the Detroit Tigers. This season, the Undertakers have fielded a lineup card against left-handed pitching that...well...judge for yourself:
I mean, other than Giambi, do any of those guys look like they belong on a championship-caliber ballclub?? Jeff Paulson has truly made patchwork rosters an art form. And then there's the bullpen. In Los Altos, it's always about the bullpen, isn't it? The names change every year, yet the performance never changes. This year, three Los Altos pitchers (Chris Nichting, Mike Remlinger and John Riedling) have allowed just THREE earned runs through 54.2 innings combined. Nichting (whose Coors Field ERA of 4.46 apparently translates to a 0.00 ERA in San Diego's home park) hasn't allowed a run through 9+ innings this season, and owns a 0/11 BB/K ratio, yet he's 0-1 on the season. Figure that one! Story #6: Definitely NOT Waving the White Flag Since the season began, the Kansas Law Dogs have traded a lefty starting pitcher with 200+ innings and a 3.75 ERA and an ace pitcher that finished third in AL Cy Young voting last year. Yet the team insists that the team is not waving the white flag. In fact, Kansas improved to 16-10 in the second chapter (two games better than Allentown), despite the fact that Ruin-Elvis Hernandez went 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA while starting three games in place of David Wells. This chapter, Tim Hudson gets to try his hand at taming the Fields of Tombstone following two disappointing trials in Stamford and Akron. He'll be filling in for Derek Lowe, who has somehow managed to post a 3.26 ERA in that hellish ballpark. Last season, the Marlboro Hammerheads gave a half-hearted effort to "compete while rebuilding." This year, the Law Dogs are going all-out to do the same. They're currently just two games behind the Ridgebacks in the Higuera Division, and they lead the EL wild card race by a game. Never before has a playoff-caliber team traded away so much talent during the season. It will be interesting to see how the Law Dogs fare in their quest to achieve what the Hammerheads could not. Story #5: "Stealing November: the Story of the 2003 Marlboro Hammerheads" Some wars are won not on the battlefield but at the negotiating table. Despite a track record as a rotisserie god, Ken "The Shark" Kaminski had been anything but a "shark" in the BDBL prior to this season. For four years, the Hammerheads flopped around among the also-rans of the Benes Division like a fish out of water, waffling between contention and non-contention on a weekly basis throughout each season. Then, after out-bidding his main division rival in two major off-season trades last winter, The Shark turned the Hammerheads into an overnight success story. Well...perhaps "out-bidding" isn't exactly the right phrase to use in this case. Despite being arguably the most valuable player in the BDBL due to his pay/performance ratio, Roy Halladay was mysteriously placed on the trading block by the Southern Cal Slyme in late November. Salem, who had been after Halladay since the winter of 2001, offered to take $13 million worth of unwanted salary from the Slyme in exchange for Halladay, but Slyme GM Bob Sylvester was looking for players to build upon instead. Assuming that Marlboro was offering the slap-hitting dynamo Ichiro Suzuki (whom they had been trying to trade for the past two years), Salem worked the phones for days in an effort to find a player who would be more desirable to a rebuilding team (which really wasn't all that difficult to find.) After days of patience-taxing trade talks with the New Milford Blazers, the Cowtippers were finally able to pry Austin Kearns away from the Blazers at great cost. Once that trade was completed, Kearns was offered to Southern Cal for Halladay, straight-up. Marlboro then added Drew Henson and Hensley Muelens-Ramirez to their side of the pile and Salem was never given a chance to counter-offer. Halladay became a Hammerhead. Just days later, Salem and Marlboro were back at it, fighting once again over yet another ace pitcher. This time, it was Atlanta Fire Ants ace Matt Clement who was being dangled between the two rivals. Salem offered several players, from Aaron Heilman to Brett Tomko to Todd Linden, and were even willing to take on Fernando Vina's $5 million salary. But Atlanta GM Gene Patterson opted for Marlboro's package of Paul Konerko and Sidney Ponson instead. Five months later, Marlboro is riding high atop the Benes Division on the backs of Halladay (9-1, 2.05 ERA) and Clement (4-3, 4.32), while Salem is lagging far behind in second place. In yet another steal of a deal, Konerko was easily replaced with Carlos Delgado, who cost just Luis Castillo, Ugie Urbina and Sean Lowe (who was later released with penalty.) And by adding such a low-cost ace in Halladay, Marlboro was able to save enough money to spend $14 million on Sammy Sosa at the auction. In the end, Kaminski exchanged Ichiro, Henson, Ramirez, Castillo, Urbina and Lowe for a division title. In doing so, he has reclaimed the title of "The Shark." Not since the Big Bang itself has so much been created from so little. Story #4: The Continued Woefulness of the New Milford Blazers After losing 425 games over four years, it didn't seem possible that the New Milford Blazers could possibly lose 100 games again in 2003. Yet as I type, New Milford is on pace to lose 101. Coming into this season, the Blazers were projected to be a solid second-place team and a possible playoff contender by nearly every person in the BDBL. Any why not? With an offense that includes Alfonso Soriano, Torii Hunter and Todd Helton in the middle, speedsters David Eckstein and Randy Winn at the top, and solid, productive hitters like Aaron Boone and A.J. Pierzynski at the bottom, what's not to like? Not to mention a pitching rotation headed by Mike Mussina, Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla, and a bullpen led by stopper J.C. Romero and capable setup men Mike Stanton, Shiggy Hasegawa and Dave Veres. How could such a team possibly be on pace to lose 100 games?? If you ask their manager, the problem is the software. Does he have a case? Let's take a look. Below is a comparison between MLB 2002 performance and BDBL 2003:
As you can see, Soriano, Pierzynski and Boone have all been huge disappointments so far this season. The Blazers did move into a pitcher-friendly ballpark last year, but these numbers are low even when taking that into account. The other five, however, are hitting about as well as expected. In my pre-season preview, I expressed some concern over the Blazers's offense due to the fact that they don't get on base a lot. When teams don't get on base, they are required to either play small-ball or wait for the three-run homer in order to score runs. The Blazers haven't gotten on base (their .321 team OBP ranks 10th in the OL), they haven't played good small-ball (29-for-49 in stolen bases) and they haven't hit many home runs (10th-ranked with 42). As a result, New Milford hasn't enjoyed very many big innings (they've scored more than three runs in an inning just eight times this season.) It's simply hard to score runs when your hitters don't get on base. Let's turn to the pitching staff:
As any BDBL owner knows all too well, there is nothing more volatile or unpredictable than pitching. Of New Milford's five starters, only one - Sabathia - is pitching better than expected. Mussina and Hampton are close enough for comfort, but Millwood and - especially - Padilla are off the charts. Millwood has allowed 10 homers already in 90 innings. Just six more and he'll have equalled his 2002 MLB total through 217 innings. Padilla's numbers are simply mind-boggling. His numbers against right-handed hitters are actually right in line with reality. But his numbers against lefties (.336/.408/.560) are monstrous compared to his MLB numbers (.272/.336/.393). Padilla actually improved greatly in Chapter Two, allowing just one run each in three of his five starts, though he did get hammered (6 ER in 1.1 IP) by the lefty-heavy Hammerheads. Still, New Milford would be wise to sit him against lefty-heavy lineups in the future. The bigger question when it comes to the Blazers's pitching staff is: why are so many innings being misallocated to inferior pitchers? Despite his 4.72 ERA so far, J.C. Romero is by far the best pitcher in the Blazers bullpen. He should get the ball every time the game is on the line, no matter what inning it is. Instead, he's been used a total of just 13 innings. Stanton is this team's best lefty setup man, yet he's been used just 4 innings all season! Mike Williams had a 2.93 ERA in the big leagues, yet he's been used just 4.2 innings. Veres has been used for just 18 innings, though he's available to pitch nearly 90 innings this year. And then there's Mike Hampton. Mike Hampton shouldn't ever be used - EVER. Yet he ranks third on the team in innings, with 62. You mean to tell me the Blazers couldn't find anyone on the free agent or trade market with an ERA lower than 6.00?? A team that hopes to contend simply doesn't use Mike Hampton - EVER. PERIOD. END OF STORY. The Blazers rank 10th in the OL in ERA at 4.37. Remove Mike Hampton, however, and their ERA drops to 4.05, which would place them fifth in the league. Replace some of those mid-game innings with Romero, Williams, Stanton and Veres and guess what? The Blazers would probably be leading the league! Like the Cowtippers, the Blazers have also had more than their fair share of bad luck. They are currently performing four games below their Pythagorean projection (which, along with Salem, leads the BDBL.) And the Blazers have lost a BDBL-high 13 one-run games. (And I thought the 'Tippers were bad!) In time, New Milford's luck should turn around. But is it too late? The Blazers's problem isn't the software. And their problem isn't their personnel. They have the right personnel to win, and the software shouldn't stand in their way of doing so. What the Blazers need to figure out is how to squeeze the most production out of what they have. And isn't that pretty much true for all of us? Story #3: Barry Bonds I have to admit, when Mike Stein bid $16.5 million (actually much higher) on Barry Bonds in the auction draft, I thought he was insane. Don't get me wrong. I was grateful that Bonds didn't go to the Ridgebacks (who bid $16m), and I bid $16m on Barry myself. I just didn't understand how Bonds would help the Rocks this year. Not that Bonds has helped the Rocks much this year, mind you. Cleveland is currently six games behind the Akron Ryche, and their offense ranks just eighth in the league in runs scored despite Bonds's efforts. But man, what an effort it has been. The numbers are staggering:
While all of those numbers are impressive, the only number that really counts is how many runs Bonds has given the Rocks. He's been on base 159 times this season, but has scored just 55 times (35%). In comparison, a slap-hitter like Ichiro has reached base just 93 times, but has crossed the plate 42 times (45%), and a slow-footed ape like Jim Thome has reached base 103 times and has scored 46 runs (45%). The league average, by the way, is 38-percent. Sure, but Bonds can certainly drive in runs, right? Well, sure. Bonds ranks fifth in the EL in RBI's with 44. All in all, he's had a hand in 99 of the 251 runs Cleveland has scored this season, which amounts to 39%. And to think, he only cost 25% of Cleveland's total payroll! I'd say that makes him a bargain. Story #2: All Quiet on the Trading Front Even after the flurry of trades made this past chapter, all involving ace pitchers, it has been a relatively quiet year at the trade table. Remarkably quiet, actually. Three years ago, J.D. Drew, Raul Mondesi, Roger Clemens, Manny Ramirez, Darryl Kile, Chuck Knoblauch, Sean Casey and Paul Konerko were all traded before the Chapter Three deadline. Two years ago, Brian Bohanon, Ryan Dempster, Keith Foulke, Jason Kendall, Brad Penny, Robb Nen, Phil Nevin, Mike Sirotka, Woody Williams, Trevor Hoffman, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Beltran and Ivan Rodriguez all switched unis in the first two chapters. Last year, Jon Lieber, Roy Halladay, Joel Piniero, Keith Foulke, Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, Eric Gagne, Ken Griffey, Tom Gordon, Tom Glavine, Jamie Moyer, Chad Fox, Steve Karsay, Pat Burrell, Luis Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez, Greg Maddux, Mike Hampton, Javier Vazquez, Jarrod Washburn, Ellis Burks, Tim Wakefield and Kyle Farnsworth were all dealt prior to Chapter Three. And those were just the big names. This season, the list of big-name players changing hands consists of just Bernie Williams, Woody Williams, David Wells, Ivan Rodriguez, Marquis Grissom, Brian Jordan, Eddie Guardado, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Orlando Hernandez, Al Leiter and Jeff Weaver. While the quantity is on par with 2000 and 2001, the quality is certainly below the usual level of impact. What happened? I think it's a combination of factors, including:
Story #1: The Collapse of the Cowtippers Dynasty Over the past four years, I've had various players go through slumps that lasted for two chapters or more. I've never, though, seen an entire team slump for two chapters. Yet that's exactly what's happened in Salem this season. On paper, a starting rotation that includes four pitchers with sub-4.00 ERA's should be a pretty good one. Yet here's what that rotation looks like today, compared to their MLB performances of a year ago:
Without exception, every starter on the Cowtippers has underperformed, from slightly (Clemens) to drasticly (Leiter). Despite that fact, Salem still ranks fifth in ERA, thanks to the bullpen. The bigger problem in Salem is that whenever the starting pitchers do well, the relievers take the day off, and vice-versa. A good case in point was Salem's first series of Chapter Three, when the starting pitchers pitched well enough to win, and the bullpen blew both games in the eighth and ninth innings. All in all, the Cowtippers have allowed fewer runs this season than the Stamford Zoots. Obviously, run prevention has not been the problem. On paper, an offense that includes Bernie Williams, Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns, Ray Durham and Robin Ventura should be able to kick some serious ass. (The key word in that sentence being, "should.") Yet here's what the Salem starters have done this season compared to their MLB performances from a year ago:
Yes, every player, with the exceptions of Davis and Clayton (the two most insignificant batters in the lineup) has a lower OPS in the BDBL than he did in the majors last year. How is this possible? Who knows? Kearns and Ventura, in particular, have killed the Salem offense, as they bat right in the middle of the lineup. The only thing worse than not hitting at all is not hitting when the game is on the line. For whatever reason, the Cowtippers have been horrendous situational hitters for the second year in a row. With the bases loaded, Salem is hitting just .241/.343/.431. In comparison, Marlboro is hitting .324/.405/.459 in that same situation. With runners in scoring position, Salem is hitting .252/.357/.435. Marlboro is hitting .278/.398/.459. And thus, the difference between a first-place team and a second-place team. Given time, the Salem offense will surely bust out of this slump, and will likely be among the league leaders in run scoring by the end of this season - even without Bernie Williams. But because of this bizarre two-chapter slump, the Cowtippers have lost too much ground, and now have no chance of catching the Hammerheads. For the first time in league history, Salem will be watching this year's playoffs from the sidelines. It's not the way I would have preferred to go out. Coming into this season, I envisioned a fierce battle with the Hammerheads, with the division title being decided during the final week of the season. Instead, the 'Tippers are eight games out of first place after two chapters of play. If nothing else, this season confirms what I've known all along: the baseball gods truly do hate me. |