October 1, 2003

ITSTAHP?

Last month, I took a look at the Baseball Prospectus mantra, "There Is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect" (or TINSTAPP).  The basic conclusion of that little study was that there is such a thing, but the difference between identifying a pitching prospect that becomes a valuable front-of-the-rotation ace and one that becomes the next David Clyde is a random flip of a coin no matter how highly acclaimed or highly ranked that pitching prospect is.

The first question that popped up on the BDBL message board after that article was posted was: is there is such a thing as a hitting prospect?  To be honest, I've always assumed that there is, and therefore found little motivation to look into the question any further.  But as we all know, nothing in baseball should ever be assumed, so let's dive in and take a look.

I'll use the same method as last time, focusing on the hitters listed among the top 20 overall prospects by "Baseball America" each year, with a brief look at the other hitting prospects that made up the top 100.  We'll start with 1990:

A pretty impressive list.  Of the 11 hitters listed in BBA's top 20, six are still playing 13 years later (with Vaughn, Lankford, Offerman and Deshields having just recently retired within the past year.)  Of this list of 11 hitters, NINE have enjoyed at least one all-star caliber season, and the top two hitters have enjoyed a couple of MVP-caliber years.  That's a success rate that any one of us would be proud of, I'm sure.

As well as BBA did on the top 20, they completely botched the next 20. There are a few big-time stiffs in the next 20, such as Ty Griffin, Mark Lewis, Wes Chamberlain, Reggie Jefferson, Braulio Castillo, Brian Lane and Willie Ansley.  To be fair, there are also some all-stars such as Frank Thomas, Dean Palmer, Travis Fryman and Tino Martinez.

After the top 40, we see a few stiffs (Donald Harris, Earl Cunningham, Steve Hosey, Andujar Cedeno, Mickey Pina), but mostly we see a good mixture of useful role players (Glenallen Hill, Rico Brogna, Wil Cordero, Todd Hundley, Derek Bell, Phil Plantier) and studs (Bernie Williams, Larry Walker, Carlos Baerga, Mo Vaughn, Eric Karros and Brian Jordan.)

Onto 1991:

Though it is topped by a big-time stiff, this is another impressive list.  Of the 14 hitters listed above, 10 are still active Major Leaguers a dozen years later, 9 have enjoyed all-star-caliber seasons at least once, and three (Vaughn, Rodriguez and Williams) have enjoyed at least one MVP-caliber season.  Again, I think that any of us would love to have that kind of success rate with our farms.  Hell, two of the four complete stiffs on this list managed to rack up over 2,000 big league at-bats, which is pretty impressive in and of itself.

The next 20 is populated with some horrendous wastes of roster space (WORS) like Eddie Zosky, Hensley Muelens, Mark Newfield and Gary Scott.  There are a few decent role players in that mix, like Tyler Houston, Henry Rodriguez, Brogna, Mark Whiten and Royce Clayton.  There's also one legit Hall of Fame candidate: Jeff Bagwell.

The remainder of the top 100 is pretty much divided into thirds between future all-stars (Chipper Jones, Jeff Conine, Lankford, Palmer, Chuck Knoblauch, Tim Salmon, Kenny Lofton, Jim Thome and Brett Boone), useful role players (Tom Goodwin, Greg Colbrunn, Carl Everett, Jeff Conine) and WORS's (D.J. Dozier, Steve Decker, Carlos Garcia, Greg Blosser, William Suero, etc.).

The Class of 1992:

More stiffs on this table than in your average morgue, yet it's still pretty impressive, nonetheless.  Of these 11 hitters, 7 (including the top 6) are still active, 6 have enjoyed at least one all-star season and one (Jones) is a perennial MVP candidate.  When you can pick eight out of eleven minor league hitters that will amass at least 3,500 at-bats in the big leagues, you know you're doing something right.

The next twenty is actually better than the first twenty: Mondesi, David McCarty, Kenny Lofton, Dave Nilsson, Dmitri Young, Carl Everett, Midre Cummings, Cliff Floyd, Manny Ramirez, Manny Alexander and Terrell Lowery.  That's seven players that have enjoyed at least one all-star season.  Not too shabby.

In the final 60, you've got some duds (Nigel Wilson, Tom Nevers, Ray McDavid, Gary Scott, etc.), some studs (Jeromy Burnitz, Thome, Salmon) and some decent role players (Dan Wilson, Reggie Jefferson, Butch Huskey, Doug Glanville.)

Onto 1993:

Wow!  Not a bad group of players, eh?   How many of us wouldn't mind having an offense like that?  Of the dozen players listed above, there are only two McBums: McDavid and McCarty.  Hammonds has been a huge disappointment, and hasn't ever been an "all-star" by any stretch of the imagination, but even he had one useful season (2000: .335/.395/.529 in 454 AB's while playing in Coors.)

Out of twelve hitters, we've got eight all-stars - and most of those players have been all-stars multiple times.  Jones, Delgado, Salmon and Ramirez have posted at least one MVP-caliber season, and Lopez is in the midst of having one currently (though it is his first in ten years, and is a bit of a fluke.)

Outside of the top 20, the future all-stars keep coming and coming.  Johnny Damon, Ryan Klesko, Phil Nevin and Mike Piazza round out the top 40.  Derek Jeter, Shawn Green and Edgar Renteria appear in the top 60.  And Jeromy Burnitz, Mike Lieberthal, Carl Everett, Raul Mondesi, Bobby Abreu and Brett Boone fill out the bottom 60.

To be sure, there are some bums in this group as well, such as Willie Green, Calvin Murray, Mike Kelly and Nigel Wilson.  In general, though, there seems to be at least one useful player for every bum listed among the bottom 80.

1994:

Take a look at this list, and two things jump out at you: 1) how the hell could Baseball America rank Alex Gonzalez ahead of Alex Rodriguez??, and 2) there isn't one WORS on this entire list.  Thirteen hitters, and the closest player here to WORS status is Hammonds, who has at least been a useful platoon player for most of his career.

Of these thirteen hitters, ELEVEN have enjoyed at least one all-star season in a big league uniform.  One (A-Rod) is a surefire Hall of Famer.  Jeter is likely to end up in the Hall, both for his offensive numbers and his number of rings.  A few others (Delgado, Ramirez, Klesko) have enjoyed an MVP-caliber season or two.  Floyd, Lopez, White and Nixon have been huge impact players at various points in their careers, and Johnson's value lies in his glove and his arm.

Nevin, Green and Damon share the top 40 with Benji Gil, Russ Davis and Midre Cummings.  The remainder of the top 100 is filled with more questionable picks (like Chad Mottola, McDavid, Kelly, Arquimedez Pozo, Glenn Williams, Manny Alexander, D.J. Boston, Mel Nieves and James Mouton) than your average Blazers farm draft, and there are few all-stars or useful role players to be found.

1995:

A few waste products on this list, most notably at the #2 position.  Aside from Rivera, Hunter, Gonzalez and Ordonez never really lived up to expectations, and the jury is still out on Grieve (though he does own a career OPS over 800, believe it or not).  Hollandsworth won the Rookie of the Year award in 1996, then quickly fell to the earth with a thud.

On the other hand, this list of twelve is topped with a surefire Hall of Famer, seven players who enjoyed at least one all-star season, four MVP candidates and two Rookies of the Year.  That's pretty impressive, no?  It's interesting to note that the first ten players on BBA's 1995 list were all hitters.  Perhaps BBA bought into the TINSTAPP philosophy for a year?

Just beyond the top 20 (yes, ranked just behind Rey Ordonez) is Andruw Jones.  And ranked just behind Jones (who, yes, is also ranked behind Ordonez) is Nomar Garciaparra.  The next hitter listed by BBA is Josh Booty, which pretty much sums up how inconsistent the folks at BBA were in their rankings that year.

Ray Durham, Edgardo Alfonzo, Richard Hidalgo, Paul Konerko, Todd Walker, Nixon, Abreu, Nevin, Shannon Stewart, Vladimir Guerrero, Tony Clark and Scott Rolen appear among the bottom 75, alongside such luminaries as Mark Newfield, Trey Beamon, Pokey Reese, Sergio Nunez and Antone Williamson.  In all, there's probably a 1:1 ratio of useful to useless players in the bottom 75.

1996:

The BBA top 20 list took a huge nosedive between 1994 and 1996, didn't it?  Take a look at the names on this list that have all failed (not just this list, but all of the failures on every BBA top 20 list) and you'll see a common thread: players that look good in a uniform but can't translate their good looks and toned biceps to skills that can actually be useful on a baseball diamond.  But I digress.  This isn't a study designed to rate Baseball America's performance, so let's move on.

As poorly as Baseball America did in 1996, the fact remains that of the ten hitters listed in the top 20 (the fewest number so far), half of the players on this list enjoyed at least one all-star season and four have enjoyed at least one MVP-caliber season.  That's still a better rate of return than you'll find for any group of pitching prospects.

The next group of 20 is more impressive than the first group of 20 (which tells me BBA just screwed up royally that year): Jay Payton, Todd Walker, Jose Cruz, Jason Kendall, Rolen, Donnie Sadler, Abreu, Jermaine Dye, Jaime Jones, Todd Helton, Renteria, Garciaparra, Grieve and Nixon.  The only bums in the lot are Sadler and Jones.

The remainder of the top 100 includes the usual 50/50 mixture of turds, both of the useful and useless variety.

1997:

Of the 15 hitters listed in 1997's top 20 list, seven enjoyed at least one all-star season.  Walker, Konerko, Cruz, Lee and Grieve have been useful role players with flashes of brilliance, and though Lee, Rivera and Garcia have been colossal failures for the most part, they have been useful platoon players at times.  Five have had at least one MVP-caliber season.

Baseball America really struck out with the next 20 hitters listed: Chad Hermanson, Jose Guillen, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Guillen, Dmitri Young, Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron, Neifi Perez, Jay Payton, Juan Melo, Eli Marrero, Bobby Abreu and Jackson Melian.  Now that I take a good look at it, the next 20 on their list weren't much better.  Nor were the 20 after that, or the 20 after that.   Still, the mixture of useful and useless remains at near 1:1.

1998:

Boy, if we based our study on 1998 alone, we'd conclude that hitting prospects are even more unpredictable than pitching prospects!  This is just an ugly, ugly list filled with one miserable disappointment after another.  Of the 14 hitters listed above, only four have turned in one all-star season (which is still a better rate of return than you'd get from most lists of pitching prospects), and just two (Tejada and Helton) that have enjoyed an MVP-caliber season or two.

It's not like good hitting prospects didn't exist in 1998.  Eric Chavez (#30), Troy Glaus (#36), Vernon Wells (#52), Magglio Ordonez (#56), Lance Berkman (#64) and Mike Lowell (#71) all appear among the top 100.  They just weren't as highly-acclaimed as the those in the top 20 (at least, according to BBA.)  To be fair, those six names I mentioned are the only names that stand out as future all-stars among the bottom 80. 

1999:

Another down year, it seems.  Though to be fair, some of these guys are still getting their feet wet in the big leagues, so it's a little too early to judge.  Since we judged the pitchers up to 2000, though, we'll do the same for the hitters.  Of the 12 players here, four have enjoyed at least one all-star season already, and two have enjoyed MVP-caliber seasons.  If only Drew could stay healthy for one season, he might have had a chance to join those guys.

The bottom-80 is surprisingly thin, with only Alfonso Soriano (#39), Vernon Wells (#69) and Trot Nixon (#99) standing out as future all-stars.  But again, it's a little too early to judge this class.  For example, Austin Kearns (#76), Sean Burroughs (#82) and Mike Cuddyer (#36) are safe bets to have at least one all-star season some time in the near future (at least I hope.)

Finally, we come to the Class of 2000:

It's really too early to give this draft class a fair review.  It is interesting that two players (soon to be three) from this class already have more than 2,000 MLB at-bats just three years later.  Of the 12 hitters listed here, three have already enjoyed one all-star season, and one (Soriano) has enjoyed an MVP-caliber year.  Only two players here have yet to record a big league at-bat yet, which doesn't bode well for them.

I won't even bother looking at the rest of that year's top 100, as it wouldn't add anything to our study.

So what have we learned?  Let's look at one last table, showing the totals from our two studies from 1990-1997 for the top 20 prospects only:

Pretty compelling evidence that there is such a thing as a hitting prospect, but pitching prospects are a complete crapshoot.

Basically, if you were to randomly select any hitter from Baseball America's top 20 prospects list from 1990-1997, the chances of that hitter becoming an all-star would be about two out of three, and the chances of that hitter becoming an MVP candidate would be about one out of three.

If you were to select any pitcher from those same lists over that same timeframe, the odds of that pitcher turning into an all-star would be just one-in-three, and the odds of that pitcher becoming a Cy Young candidate would be just one out of ten.

More importantly, the odds of selecting a complete waste of roster space is just one out of five for hitters, but nearly 50/50 for pitchers!

The safe bet when it comes to prospects is clearly to stick with the hitters.  Unfortunately, the old saying that applies to women applies to pitchers as well: "You can't live with 'em.  You can't live without 'em."