November 1, 2003

2003 BDBL Playoff Preview

The 2002 post-season is a tough act to follow.  Five of the seven playoff series last year - including the World Series - went the full seven games.  In three of those series, the team that was down two games to none came back to win it.  Ten games - including the final game of the season - were decided by just one run.  And three of the five Game Sevens were still tied after six innings of play.

It was a post-season filled with vivid memories: the Undertakers pitching staff tossing 29 shutout innings to start the Division Series against Madison, Roy Oswalt shutting down the Akron Ryche (Josh Beckett style) in Game Seven of the ELDS, the Stamford Zoots losing in the post-season for the first time in history, the Salem Cowtippers beating the Zoots for the first time ever (dating back to the late 80's), the Phoenix Predators pounding the New York Knights by a score of 20-2 in Game Four of the ELDS, the Predators scoring five runs in the second inning of Game Seven, then not scoring again the rest of the way and losing 7-5, Oswalt tossing another brilliant Game Seven in the ELCS, Salem scoring six runs in the top of the eighth to break open a 1-0 game in Game Seven of the OLCS, Salem's pitchers hitting two batters in a row to force extra innings in Game Six of the World Series, Mike Magnante's game-winning grand slam off of John Smoltz in the bottom of the 10th, Salem intentionally putting the go-ahead run on base with one out in the ninth inning of a tied Game Seven of the World Series, and, finally, Ellis Burks ripping a double off of David Weathers to win the World Series for Tom DiStefano.

This year, the post-season includes the return of the Stamford Zoots, the Los Altos Undertakers, the Akron Ryche and the Allentown Ridgebacks.  Conspicuous in their absence is the Salem Cowtippers, who missed the post-season for the first time in league history.

The Zoots, having missed the World Series for the first time in league history last year, look to return to the big stage this season after winning a record 115 games this year.  They will be facing the Marlboro Hammerheads, who are making their first post-season appearance after nearly giving it all away earlier this season.

The Undertakers's foe this year will be the Bear Country Jamboree, also making their first post-season appearance.  What makes this match-up interesting is that the two managers for these teams, Jeff Paulson and Matt Clemm, are long-time friends who have been competing against each other longer than Bobby Sylvester has been alive.  Paulson claims to have "dominated" Clemm in backyard baseball games over the years.  Will that trend continue into the fantasy world as well?

Speaking of Sylvester, he will be returning to the post-season for the second time since he took over the franchise.  Last time, he faced his father in the Division Series.  This time, he'll be facing D.J. Shepard, who will be looking to advance to the ELCS for the second time in three years.

In the final division series, it will be the Kansas Law Dogs squaring off against a familiar division foe, the Allentown Ridgebacks.  The overachievers against the underachievers.  The underdogs against the favorites.  The Davids against the Goliaths.  You get the picture.

The stage is set for another exciting post-season in the BDBL.  The match-ups don't seem to be nearly as even as last season, but as we all know, anything can - and does - happen in a short series.

Quick Links:
Stamford vs. Marlboro
Bear Country vs. Los Altos
Akron vs. Wapakoneta
Kansas vs. Allentown

Stamford Zoots vs. Marlboro Hammerheads

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

The seeds of the Marlboro Hammerheads's first division championship were sewn last winter, when Marlboro GM Ken "The Shark" Kaminski won two separate bidding wars against his division rival, Salem GM Mike Glander, in the span of about a week.  Despite being out-bid by Salem in both negotiations, Christmas came early to Marlboro, and the Hammerheads ended up with both Roy Halladay and Matt Clement.

Before trading season had ended, Kaminski was able to bolster his offense as well, adding lefty slugger Carlos Delgado (along with clutch god Hiram Bocachica) at the great expense of singles hitter Luis Castillo and the overrated Uggie Urbina.  He also shored up his bullpen by adding Mike Timlin, Vladimir Nunez and Eddie Guardado, all without sacrificing one player of value for this season or next.   It was an award-winning performance as a GM, worthy of the league's highest honor.

In the auction, Kaminski paid big bucks ($14 million) to add the huge right-handed power bat of Sammy Sosa to the middle of his lefty-heavy lineup.  Kevin Appier was also added to complete the starting rotation, at what seemed to be a bargain price of $5 million.  After all was said and done, the Hammerheads turned from ugly stepsister to Cinderella seemingly overnight.

After one chapter of play, Kaminski went in for the kill, adding lefty-killers Marquis Grissom and Kevin Young to balance his lefty-heavy lineup (at the "expense" of Mientkiewicz, Mike DeJean and Guardado), getting Bobby Crosby as a "throw-in" in the process.  By the end of two chapters, the Hammerheads were well on their way to running away with the Benes Division title.  For a while, it looked as though Kaminski had joined Marazita and DiStefano in some sort of Evil Empire Unholy Trinity.

Then...over the next chapter...Kaminski appeared to give it all away.

After a typical overreaction to the slow starts by Sosa and Halladay in April of the MLB season, Kaminski - apparently convinced that he had locked up the Benes Division title - diverted his attention away from winning a championship and began worrying about the 2004 Hammerheads instead.  In the span of just a few days, Kaminski managed to trade away nearly every player that had contributed to his team's early success.  Gone were his two best pitchers, Halladay and Clement.  Gone were two of his best hitters, Sosa and Finley.  Gone was his top saves guy, Timlin.  Gone were #4 starter Mark Redman and lefty setup man Dan Plesac.  All were replaced by good, though less productive, players.  Bobby Abreu and Carlos Beltran took the places of Sosa and Finley.  Matt Morris, Javier Vazquez and Andy Ashby took over for Halladay, Clement and Redman.  The one upgrade appeared to be Mariano Rivera in place of Timlin, though Rivera was severely limited in usage.

But Kaminski still wasn't done.  The following chapter, he added Damaso Marte, Armando Benitez and Ray King to the bullpen - again, at little to no cost.  Finally, the annual trading deadline came to a close and the Hammerheads roster was protected from any further chaotic manipulations.

For the Zoots, GM Paul Marazita vowed to "get back to basics" after his devastating loss to the Salem Cowtippers in the Division Series last year.  In an effort to get back to the World Series at any cost, Marazita dealt away more quality players than in the previous four years combined.  The first trade of the off-season occurred just after his Division Series loss, when Marazita traded Magglio Ordonez to the Akron Ryche in exchange for Tim Hudson.  Not only was Hudson signed to a long-term contract at a bargain price, but the Zoots also managed to upgrade at shortstop (Chris Woodward over Chris Gomez) and got a promising young lefty pitcher as a patented Zoots "throw-in."

Rather than risk price uncertainty in the auction, Marazita rounded out his pitching rotation by trading first for Omar Daal (who came along with Andy Fox and Joe Mauer in exchange for Trot Nixon and Juan Cruz), then sent Daal packing (along with Adrian Gonzalez) in favor of Chuck Finley and Geoff Blum.  A key trade for Stamford last winter was trading backup first baseman Brian Daubach for all-star catcher Mike Lieberthal.  Jay Payton was also added to the Zoots offense in exchange for future superstars Adam Hyzdu and Jayson Werth.

In the auction, Marazita added Jim Edmonds at $11.5 million, David Ortiz at the now-bargain price of $3.5 million and SUS Alex Cora for $2.5 million.  He then spent most of his picks in the free agent draft searching for trade bait.

Prior to Chapter Three, Marazita then dropped a bombshell, trading Hudson for one-year-rental Derek Lowe, thus proving the Zoots's commitment to an all-or-nothing 2003 campaign.  In Chapter Four, Marazita connected with a familiar trading partner, Billy Romaniello, for the first time since the infamous Randy Johnson trade of 1999.  That opened the door for a blockbuster trade with Billy's Blazers just before the annual deadline.  In exchange for two mediocre part-time pitchers, Marazita added a third ace, Kevin Millwood, to his rotation, thus solidifying his place in the World Series for the fourth time in five years.  (And, oh, he also got Randy Winn and Wil Cordero thrown-in, "just to make it even.")

Another promising prospect, Brandon Phillips, was then shipped off in exchange for former Salem team captain John Olerud, completing the last piece of the championship puzzle. 

What they've done this year:

The Hammerheads's season can be broken down into three distinct parts.  The first part consists of Chapters One and Two, when Marlboro was winning with their original roster.  During that period, Marlboro posted a record of 33-21 (a .611 winning pct.)  Once the overhaul of their original roster was completed, Marlboro proceeded to post a record of 41-37 (.526) through the next three chapters - only the second-best record in the division each chapter.  Then, in Chapter Six, it all seemed to come together, and the Hammerheads emerged from nowhere to post a record of 16-10, good enough to capture the Benes Division title.

Overall, Marlboro ranked fourth in the OL in runs scored.  Though teams have loaded up on left-handed pitching against the Hammerheads all season (Marlboro ranked third in the OL in at-bats against lefties this year, behind only Madison and Bear Country), a well-kept secret is that Marlboro actually hit better against lefties (.272/.345/.444) than they did against righties (.260/.342/.424). The reason is that, over the course of the season, Kaminski added several big right-handed platooners such as Marquis Grissom (.280/.359/.632 vs. LH), Kevin Young (.321/.385/.571) and Placido Polanco (.336/.410/.479).

On the mound, Marlboro ranked just seventh in ERA.  The four starters Marlboro plans to use in the post-season rotation racked up a 3.95 collective ERA this season, while the seven (yes, seven) relievers Marlboro plans to carry compiled an ERA of 2.47.

The Zoots broke the all-time BDBL record for wins in a single season, with 115 - an astounding winning percentage of .718.  The present-day Zoots roster, however, with Olerud and Millwood, went 41-13 this season - a winning percentage of .759.  Yep, the present-day Zoots roster won more than three out of every four games they played through the final two chapters.

Stamford ranked first in the OL in both runs scored and (fewest) runs allowed, and outscored their opponents by 267 runs - the second-highest total in the BDBL.  The Zoots offense was second only to the Coors-inflated Law Dogs in on-base percentage, with four hitters (Chipper Jones at .469, John Olerud at .447, Jim Edmonds at .413 and Edgardo Alfonzo at .385) ranking among the top six in that category.

Stamford's bench is about as deep as it gets.  With all right-handed starters going for Marlboro, the Zoots will have Edgardo Alfonzo (.315/.441/.488 vs. LH), Greg Colbrunn (.336/.385/.534), Cora (.440/.481/.800), Lou Merloni (.306/.413/.516) and Brian Schneider (.364/.481/.455) on the bench just salivating over the chance to face Jesse Orosco or Damaso Marte.  Randy Winn (936 OPS vs. LH in MLB '02) will also be available.

Stamford's bullpen led the BDBL in saves, with 59, blew just three games where they held the lead after seven innings, and went 12-3 when tied after seven.  Like the Zoots's lineup, their bullpen consists mostly of no-name specialists like Brian Fuentes (1.50 ERA), Mark Guthrie (1.89), Lou Pote (2.29), Clay Condrey (2.67) and Shiggy Hasegawa (2.79).  Fuentes, in particular, is a lefty who can't pitch to lefties to save his life (posting a 1170 OPS vs. LH in the BDBL this season), but who eats right-handers for breakfast (280 OPS).  He'll come in handy against Marlboro's parade of switch-hitters (Beltran, Posada, Carlos Guillen, Orlando Hudson and Gary Matthews.)

The main go-to guy in the Zoots bullpen, of course, is Bung-Hole Kim.  In 86.2 innings this year, Bung-Hole posted a microscopic 0.93 ERA, allowing 71 hits and 28 walks while whiffing 87.  He saved 49 games in 54 opportunities.

How they've done against each other this year: 

The Zoots posted a winning record against every team in the Ozzie League this season, all except for two teams: Los Altos and Marlboro, who both escaped with a split at 6-6. Overall, the Zoots outscored the Hammerheads 61-55 in those dozen games.

On the mound, the Zoots threw their #5 starter, Danny Wright, at the Hammerheads four times this year (accounting for two of Marlboro's wins.)  Despite posting some outrageous numbers (14-5, 3.24 ERA) this year, Wright will probably not be on Stamford's playoff roster.  Chuck Finley, Stamford's #4 starter, got the call four times against the Hammerheads, and is the likely Game Four starter.  Derek Lowe started three times against Marlboro this season (once as a member of the Law Dogs), allowing one earned run on seven hits through 14.2 innings, while Mark Buehrle and Kevin Millwood each started only once.

On the Marlboro side of the ledger, their #3 pitcher, Kevin Appier, started four times against the Zoots (racking up totals of 21.2 IP, 26 H, 10 BB, 9 K and a 3.32 ERA), Matt Morris earned two starts, and Ben Sheets tallied one.

Keys to the series:

Stamford's leading Cy Young candidate, lefty Mark Buehrle (.289/.340/.404 vs. RH this season), may have some difficulty against Marlboro's array of righty platoon hitters.  He only earned one start against Marlboro this season, so it's hard to know exactly how well he would do against this team.  And in the one game he started, he lasted just 4 1/3 innings.

While the Zoots probably don't have to worry about Buehrle, they will have to worry about who starts Game Four.  Finley's starts against Marlboro this season were particularly disastrous: 19.2 IP, 31 H, 12 BB, 15 K, 6.41 ERA, and Wright's ERA was even higher (6.41).  So, no matter who Stamford tabs for Game Four, the Zoots will likely have to score a ton of runs to win that game.

Having four right-handed starters going for Marlboro works right into the hands of the Zoots, as Stamford hit slightly better against right-handed pitching this year (.289/.367/.445) than against left-handers (.277/.361/.420).  In particular, Jones (.356/.462/.513), Olerud (.423/.516/.699 as a Zoot), Greg Colbrunn (.327/.367/.673), David Ortiz (.306/.412/.550) and Edmonds (.313/.445/.542) just hammered right-handers all year long.

The biggest key to this series will be whether Marlboro's pitching - or any Ozzie League team's pitching, for that matter - can contain the relentless attack of the Stamford platooners.  The OPS's against left-handed hitters for Marlboro's four starting pitchers - 754, 758, 868 and 889 - doesn't bode well for the Hammerheads in this series.

Prediction:

The Zoots quite simply dominate the Hammerheads in nearly every way, shape and form.  The starting pitching, relief pitching and offensive match-ups all go in the favor of the Stamford Zoots.  Look for the Zoots to score early and often against the Hammerheads, then mix and match that deep bench against Marlboro's relief corps.  Ken Kaminski's first foray into the post-season will be quick and painless.

Zoots in five. 

Bear Country Jamboree vs. Los Altos Undertakers

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

Coming off a BDBL-record 114-win season in 2002, the Undertakers had a rough off-season after losing to the Salem Cowtippers in the OL Championship Series.  The heart of the Undertakers lineup, Rich Aurilia, Larry Walker and Jeff Bagwell, all declared free agency.  Craig Biggio was let go.  The reigning Cy Young winner, Chan-Ho Park, was so awful, Paulson paid $4 million just to get rid of him.  Even the vaunted Los Altos bullpen seemed a little thin.  So Paulson rolled up his sleeves and went to work.

In a series of six pre-season trades, Paulson was able to reconstruct his bullpen (adding Joey Eischen, Jay Witasick and Mike Remlinger), replace Park with a front-of-the- rotation ace (Jamie Moyer) and acquire an MVP-caliber bat (Jason Giambi) for the middle of his lineup.  It cost the Undertakers a couple of big bats (Tim Salmon and Frank Thomas), some role players (Jim Mecir, Todd Hollandsworth, Shawn Wooten) and some roster-filler (Ken Harvey, Josh Karp, Jason Marquis, Jon Rauch, Joe Borowski, Pedro Feliz.)

With most of his salary tied up, Paulson barely participated in the auction, nabbing only two low-cost players, Roberto Alomar ($3 million) and Matt Franco ($2m).  In the free agent draft, Paulson didn't make a pick (Bubba Trammell) until the 11th round, and selected only two players before the $500k rounds.

During the season, Paulson made just three trades: two small (Julio Franco for Brian Hunter, and Mike Bordick for Scott Sullivan) and one large (Giambi, Alomar and Jason Schmidt for Odalis Perez, Jeremy Giambi and Mark Loretta.)

The story of the 2003 Bear Country Jamboree began in 1999, when then-GM Bryan Sakolsky drafted Alex Rodriguez and Jim Thome with the first picks of the first and third rounds.  Since then, the Jamboree have struggled along with the Madison Fighting Mimes to compete against the omnipresent juggernaut of the Butler Division.

In 2002, Bear Country missed the playoffs by just four games.  This year, the Jamboree finally reached the post-season thanks to A-Rod, Thome and a pair of pitchers named Wakefield and Wolf.  Both pitchers came to the Jamboree in trades made during the 2002 season, and both trades were about as lopsided as they come.  The Jamboree acquired Wakefield, along with überreliever Chad Fox, in exchange for Pokey Reese and Vladimir Nunez.  Two chapters later, Bear Country GM Matt Clemm acquired Wolf in exchange for Alex Sanchez, Ken Huckaby and Kevin Grybowski.  Yes, you read that right.

Clemm made just two trades before the season.  One was with Paulson (the Moyer trade), and the other was with Oakland (Paul LoDuca and Jason Hart for Erubiel Durazo, Chris Reitsma, Pedro Astacio and Jason LaRue.)  In the auction, Clemm spent $10 million on the two best relievers available, Octavio Dotel and Chris Hammond.  He then drafted just two players (John Thomson and Mark McLemore) before the $100k rounds of the free agent draft.

Clemm's biggest move (and biggest gamble) came at the Chapter Four trading deadline, when he agreed to not only take Greg Maddux's $15.5 million contract off the hands of Atlanta GM Gene Patterson, but to give Patterson Scott Podsednik (among others) for the trouble.  With Thome, Durazo and Wakefield knocking on the door of free agency, Clemm may have felt that it was now or never for the Jamboree.

How they've done this year:

Since the founding of this league, Los Altos Undertakers GM Jeff Paulson has been the master of making something out of nothing.  He is the BDBL's version of Billy Beane, without the oppressive budget.  This season, Paulson has constructed a roster that includes just three hitters with more than 450 MLB at-bats (and one of those is backup shortstop Jack Wilson.)  Despite his insistence that he does not abuse the flaw in the DMB software that turns part-time players into full-time heroes any more than the next guy, Paulson will be the first manager in BDBL history to field a starting lineup in a playoff series that is comprised almost entirely of part-time bench players.

The lineup against righties will look something like this: Dave Roberts (422 AB), Mark Loretta (283), Jeremy Giambi (313), Kevin Millar (438), Jay Gibbons (490), Brian Hunter (201), Jose Valentin (474) and Vance Wilson (163).  Against lefties: Dave Roberts (422), Loretta (283), Millar (438), Giambi (313), Bubba Trammell (403), Jack Wilson (527), Gibbons (490) and Hernandez (403).  Yes, this is what passes for a championship lineup in the BDBL.

The Undertakers racked up 98 wins this year - 38 against teams in their own division.  Los Altos went 6-6 against every opponent outside of their division this year.  Within their division, they went 11-5 against New Milford, 14-2 against Litchfield and 13-3 against Gillette.  Los Altos outperformed their Pythagorean projection by 10 games - second only to the high-flying Litchfield Lightning.

The Undertakers offense ranked sixth in the OL in runs scored despite a .383 team slugging percentage and just 119 home runs.  Of course, the key trait to the Undertakers this season has been their deep-seated love for the lost art of the stolen base.  Los Altos set a new BDBL team record for swipes this season, with 252.  Dave Roberts led the way with 91 steals in 129 attempts.  Roberts hit .331 on the year, with 152 hits (about 120 of which were bunt singles) and 11 triples.

The Los Altos pitching staff was brilliant as usual, placing third in the league in ERA and first in fewest walks allowed.  Jamie Moyer (20-7, 3.71) established himself as the team ace, at least until Odalis Perez (8-4, 2.61 in 86 IP) came along.  And Ryan Franklin (9-7, 3.91) did a serviceable job as a #3 starter.  Darrell May (8-5, 4.28) will likely take the hill in Game Four, unless Paulson opts for Oliver Perez, who would be limited to five innings in this series.

As always, the Los Altos bullpen was just ridiculous this year.  John Riedling (0.76 ERA), Chris Nichting (1.15) and Mike Remlinger (1.60) all sported ERA's under 2.00.  Mike Koplove was 5-0 with a 3.17 ERA.  Jay Witasick (3.21) served as the main closer, saving 42 games.  And Joey Eischen was the black sheep of the family at 4-1, with a 4.00 ERA, though his peripherals were good.  Overall, the Los Altos bullpen had the fewest blown saves (13) of any team in the league, the most holds (by far) and the third-lowest rate of inherited runners scored.

The Jamboree placed second in the OL this season in both runs scored and (fewest) runs allowed.  Their team ERA of 3.57 was second-best in the entire BDBL, just two points higher than Stamford's.  Bear Country pitchers allowed fewer than eight hits per nine, which was the best rate in the league.  And their bullpen was tops in the league in terms of preventing inherited runners from scoring.

Bear Country's $10 million duo of Dotel (7-6, 1.96, 41 SV) and Hammond (5-7, 2.38, 5 SV) earned every penny of their salaries.  Just 10 of 46 inherited runners scoerd off of those two.  Mike Crudale (3-2, 2.61) allowed only 4 of 40 inherited runners to score, and Jim Mecir (7-2, 3.29) was good for 5 of 25.

Maddux (10-3, 2.40) was brilliant down the stretch for the Jamboree, with 14 quality starts in 17 games (a remarkable 82%), and Wakefield (14-6, 2.76) was a steady ace throughout the season, with a quality start percentage of .613 (6th in the OL.)  Bear Country got two surprising performances out of Chris Reitsma (11-2, 3.15) and John Thomson (13-8, 3.68) and one disappointing performance out of Randy Wolf (11-13, 4.72).

Offensively, the Jamboree's offense begins and ends with Jim Thome and Alex Rodriguez. The duo were one-and-two in the Ozzie League in home runs, RBI's and runs scored.  Thome led the league in homers (48), runs scored (130), slugging (.640), OPS (1.107), runs created (167.3) and walks (147).  Together, the two combined for 283.6 runs created, which accounts for 33.9% of Bear Country's total.  Only Wapakoneta's duo of Albert Pujols and Shawn Green comes close to that figure.

How they've done against each other this year:

Although the season series was split 6-6, Bear Country outscored the Undertakers 72-53 in those dozen games, including scores of 14-4 and 12-5.

Like most teams, the Undertakers loaded up on lefty pitching against the Jamboree, starting Oliver Perez three times, Odalis Perez twice, Jamie Moyer three times and even Darrell May twice.  Bear Country countered with Wolf three times, and Wakefield, Maddux, Thomson and Reitsma twice each.

The Jamboree won all four games played with Wakefield or Maddux starting on the hill.  Combined, neither pitcher allowed a single run against the Undertakers this season.  In 26 total innings, Wakefield and Maddux allowed an astounding eight hits, with seven walks and nineteen K's.  Wolf, on the other hand, was pounded by Undertakers hitters, racking up a 7.36 ERA.  In 18.1 innings, Wolf allowed 29 hits and 11 walks.

Los Altos's three main lefties (Moyer, Odalis Perez and Oliver Perez) pitched well enough to win: 41.1 IP, 40 H, 13 BB, 36 K, 3.27 ERA.  But May (12 IP, 16 H, 5 BB, 11 K, 7.50 ERA) was just awful.

Keys to the series:

The question for both teams is who starts Games Three and Four.  For Los Altos, Oliver Perez would seem to be a good choice for one of those games, though he is limited to five innings.  The only other option is Franklin, a righty who would not match up well against Bear Country's lineup.  On the other hand, both Game Three and Four will be played at the Los Altos Graveyard, where Franklin excelled this season (a 2.86 ERA, compared to 5.00 on the road.)

For Bear Country, the question is whether they turn to their best pitcher "on paper", Randy Wolf, or go with the pitchers that performed the best this season: Reitsma and Thomson.  One of those pitchers will be the odd man out.  Given Wolf's performance against the Undertakers this season, perhaps it will be him.

Bear Country catcher Jason LaRue led the OL this season in throwing out baserunners, as he nabbed 16 of 37 potential thiefs (43%).  Backup catcher Wiki Gonzalez was far less effective, throwing out just 27.5% percent.  Gonzalez (who posted a 900+ OPS against lefties in MLB '02) batted .231/.365/.404 against lefties this season, while LaRue hit a feeble .177/.301/.302.  The question is: will the Jamboree sacrifice defense for offense?  If not, Paulson's relentless base-running could make a difference in this series where "small ball" is said to win close games.  If so, the Undertakers's running game has created an advantage even if they don't steal a base.

Bear Country's OPS against lefties (733) is a whopping 75 points lower than their OPS against righties (808).  In particular, Bear Country's top hitter, Alex Rodriguez, is completed neutered by southpaws.  A-Rod hit just .225/.325/.420 against lefties this year, and .292/.385/.610 against righties.  Everyone in the league knows this, so teams loaded up on lefties whenever the Jamboree came to town.  Bear Country racked up 1,966 at-bats against left-handers this year - second only to the Madison Fighting Mimes.  A-Rod tallied 231 AB's against lefties, which is 72 AB's more than he had in MLB '02.

A big part of the job description for a GM is the ability to recognize weaknesses and make adjustments.  For example, Marlboro GM Ken Kaminski recognized early in the season that his team was vulnerable to lefties, so he went out and got Marquis Grissom, Placido Polanco and Kevin Young to balance his lineup.  Paulson recognized that he would likely be playing the Division Series against Bear Country, and that Bear Country was vulnerable to left-handed pitching, so he went out and got Odalis Perez.

Matt Clemm did a great job this season of building a playoff-caliber team, but what he didn't do was recognize his team's weaknesses and make the proper adjustments.  It's been well known throughout the season, since Opening Day, that the Jamboree lineup was vulnerable to left-handed pitching, but instead of getting some good right-handed bats to plug in between those lefties, Clemm stuck with the status quo.  That decision could very well cost him an OL championship.

Prediction:

The Jamboree have two pitchers that have dominated the Los Altos lineup, two hitters that can dominate anybody, two relievers that can turn every game into a seven-inning contest, and one catcher that can neutralize the one and only strength of the Undertakers ballclub.

Bear Country in six.

How the Championship Series may play out:

No matter who Stamford faces in the OLCS, they will be the favorite to win that series as well.  With lefties Mark Buehrle and Chuck Finley, Stamford has the pitching to neutralize the Bear Country offense.  The Zoots offense has pounded Greg Maddux this year (10.1 IP, 13 H, 9 ER, 7 BB, 4 K), though Tim Wakefield is carrying a streak of 18 scoreless innings against the Zoots into the post-season.   Overall, Stamford went 11-5 against the Jamboree this year.

Against Los Altos, the Zoots went 6-6 on the season, but started Derek Lowe just once, and didn't start Kevin Millwood at all.  Given the Undertakers's vulnerability to right-handed pitching, Stamford would appear to have a couple of good match-ups there.  In three starts against Los Altos as a member of the Blazers, however, Millwood was lit up to the tune of 13 earned runs in 16 innings.

It won't be an easy victory by any means, but the Zoots will eventually prevail over the Jamboree or Undertakers en route to their fourth BDBL World Series appearance in five years.

Akron R˙che vs. Wapakoneta Hippos

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

Over the years, Akron Ryche GM DJ Shepard has traded more quality pitching than most of us would ever dream of owning in our lifetimes.  Prior to this season, Shepard traded Mark Prior (along with Sidney Ponson for Scott Rolen.)  This season, Shepard dealt Tim Hudson, Rich Harden, Odalis Perez and Cliff Lee in an effort to win his first-ever BDBL championship.  Yet despite dealing all that pitching, the Ryche still own the best pitching staff this side of Allentown (and arguably the best staff in the BDBL.)

The ace of that staff, Pedro Martinez, was acquired in the Inaugural Draft (11th overall, behind Albert Belle, Ken Griffey and Juan Gonzalez among others.)  The #2 guy, Mark Mulder, was Shepard's second pick of that year's farm draft (behind such notables as Jason Grilli, Matt Riley, Jay Gibbons, Jason LaRue, Brian Reith, Dernell Stenson, Chad Hutchinson and John Curtice.)  The #3 guy, Woody Williams, came along with Bernie Williams and Tony Graffanino in the Salem "white flag" trade in exchange for Harden, Lee, Brad Lidge and Ben Broussard.  And the #4 guy, Jason Schmidt, was acquired from the Undertakers, along with Jason Giambi and Roberto Alomar, in exchange for Odalis Perez, Jeremy Giambi and Mark Loretta.

Perhaps even more impressive than the starting rotation this season has been Akron's bullpen.  Scott Shields, Billy Koch and Arthur Rhodes were all acquired this season via trade.  Alan Embree, LaTroy Hawkins and Ben Weber were all mid-season free agent pick-ups (Embree and Hawkins in 2002, Weber in 2001.)

The powerful Akron offense was built mostly through trades. The heart of the lineup - Bernie Williams, Jason Giambi and Magglio Ordonez - were all acquired before or during this season.  Rolen was acquired at the expense of Prior.  Ellis Burks ($5.5 million) was Akron's one and only acquisition in the free agent auction, and Jason Varitek ($5m) and Richard Hidalgo ($3m) were high-priced pick-ups in the free agent draft.

The heart and soul of the Wapakoneta Hippos this season has been Shawn Green and Albert Pujols.  Green was drafted in the third round of the Inaugural Draft, and Pujols was drafted in the first round of the 2001 farm draft.  Without those two, who are making just $8.1 million combined this season, it's safe to say the Hippos wouldn't be where they are today.

For the most part, the rest of the offense was acquired via trade.  Brian Giles and Rafael Palmeiro were acquired (along with pitcher Elmer Dessens) as part of a big Chapter Five blockbuster trade with the lame-duck Madison Fighting Mimes this summer.  Adam Dunn, James Loney and Tino Martinez were sacrificed for those three players - all of whom are in their walk years.

Three-quarters of the starting rotation that will be used in the playoffs was acquired via trade.  Dessens was part of the Madison deal, and Al Leiter and Orlando Hernandez were acquired from the Salem Cowtippers this summer in exchange for Jeff "Way Back" Weaver.  But the biggest acquisition by the Hippos over the past year was their selection of Jon Lieber in the free agent auction at the bargain-basement price of $3 million.  Who could have guessed that Lieber would have been such a huge bargain at that time?

The bulk of the Wapakoneta bullpen was built through this year's free agent draft.  Ramiro Mendoza was drafted in the 11th round, Mike Lincoln was a 16th round pick and Antonio Alfonseca was a 23rd rounder.  But the main guy in the Hippos bullpen, Mariano Rivera, had been with the team since Day One.  In a decision that still boggles the mind, however, Rivera was traded to the Marlboro Hammerheads prior to Chapter Four in exchange for Mike Timlin and two non-prospects.

Sylvester made a pair of deals with the BDBL devil last winter, acquiring Brian Daubach in exchange for all-star catcher Mike Lieberthal, and Trot Nixon and Juan Cruz in exchange for Joe Mauer, Omar Daal and Andy Fox.  While Daubach enjoyed a brief stint of hitting way, WAY over his head, those two trades have yielded little benefit to the Hippos.  Nixon, in particular, has been a huge disappointment this season, batting just .232/.335/.411 in hitter-happy Breyers Stadium.

In addition to Mauer, the Hippos also sacrificed Prince Fielder this year, in a three-way trade with the Chicago Black Sox and Southern Cal Slyme.  In exchange for Fielder, Mark Grudzielanek and Mike Matheny, Wapakoneta received Eli Marrero, Luis Castillo and Brent Abernathy.  Again, it's hard to see how the Hippos benefited from that deal.

How they've done this year:

The Ryche outscored their opponents by more runs (302) than any other team in the BDBL this season.  They scored 928 runs (third best in the BDBL), allowed just 626 runs (second best) and committed just 83 errors (third best)...

...all while stealing just five bases in twelve attempts!

The heart of the Akron lineup is just about as good as it gets, with Jason Giambi (.400/.508/.705 in 190 AB's as a member of the Ryche), Magglio Ordonez (.323/.375/.576) and Bernie Williams (.320/.394/.473) toting big-time lumber.  The Akron lineup is well-balanced, with an 848 OPS against lefties and an 829 OPS against righties.

The Ryche pitching staff ranked first in the EL with a 3.63 team ERA, and an average of just 2.8 walks per nine (second in the BDBL) and 0.9 homers per nine (tops in the EL).  Akron ace Pedro Martinez finished the year at 17-6 with a 2.41 ERA, and #2 pitcher Mark Mulder went 18-6 with a 3.46 ERA.  Woody Williams was 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA in just 68.2 innings as a member of the Ryche, and #4 pitcher Jason Schmidt was a disappointing 4-4 with a 4.58 ERA in 70.2 innings.

As impressive as the Akron starting staff was, the bullpen was equally impressive.  The Akron bullpen saved 51 games (tied at the top of the EL) and allowed just 27.3% of inherited baserunners to score (second in the EL.)   The word "depth" would be an understatement when it comes to the Ryche bullpen.  Akron has no less than SIX pitchers who would all be closers on any other team: Scott Shields (1.80 ERA), Latroy Hawkins (1.91), Billy Koch (2.60), Arthur Rhodes (3.00 in 18 IP), Alan Embree (4.06) and Ben Weber (4.37).

The Wapakoneta dynamic duo of Green and Pujols carried the Hippos offense this season.  Pujols (.372/.436/.691) led the league in batting average, and ranked #2 in OBP, slugging, RBI's and runs created.   Green (.318/.393/.667) led the league in home runs (58), placed third in RBI's and fourth in runs created.  Together, the two combined for 323.2 runs created, or 33.1% of the Hippos's total.

The Hippos offense hardly ends there, however.  Wapakoneta ranked #1 among all non-Coors-inflated teams in the BDBL this season in runs scored, thanks in part to the contributions of Brian Giles (.357/.496/.959 in 98 AB), Rafael Palmeiro (.314/.429/.705 in 156 AB) and Brian Daubach (.306/.360/.601).

On the mound, it's a different story.  Thanks in part to the effects of Breyers Stadium, the Hippos pitching staff ranked ninth in the EL in ERA at 4.81 this season.  The Hippos served up more longballs this year than every other team in the league except Nashville (who allowed just one more.)  And the Wapakoneta bullpen was the second-worst in the league in terms of allowing inherited baserunners to score (41.7%).

The one bright spot on the Hippos pitching staff is so bright, it hurts to look at him.  Jon Lieber went a remarkable 18-0 this season, with a 2.16 ERA and just 16 walks in 150 innings.  The next-winningest pitcher on the Hippos staff was Steve Trachsel (12-7), which tells you all you need to know about the Wapakoneta pitching rotation this year.

The Hippos bullpen is comprised of 2002 World Series hero Mike Lincoln (6-1, 3.22), Antonio "Six-Finger" Alfonseca (3-7, 3.38, 36 SV) and Ramiro Mendoza (5-1, 4.13).  Timlin allowed a mind-boggling 22 homers in 72 innings as a member of the Hippos, yet somehow managed to compile a 5-2 record and a 4.25 ERA.

How they've done against each other this year:

Akron bested Wapakoneta 8-4 during the regular season, outscoring them 57-46.  Martinez started twice against the Hippos (14 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 16 K), Mulder started four times (28.2 IP, 24 H, 6 BB, 22 K, 2.20 ERA), Williams started twice (13.2 IP, 19 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 8 K) and Schmidt once (6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K).

For Wapakoneta, Lieber (6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) and Leiter (3.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K) each started once.  Hernandez (10.2 IP, 16 H, 10 ER, 4 BB, 14 K) started two games (one with Salem, the other with Wapakoneta), and Trachsel (20.1 IP, 22 H, 6 ER, 8 BB, 10 K) started three times.  The other starts went to guys like Mike Maroth (twice), Jason Simontacchi (twice), John Lackey and Juan Cruz.

Keys to the series:

The Hippos play in a very homer-friendly park, especially for right-handed hitters (a factor of 132).  Akron plays in a neutral home run park for lefties, but an oppressive homer park for righties (a factor of 78).  Given that the Ryche have the home field advantage, how will that affect Albert Pujols?  Well, Pujols hit two home runs in twelve games against the Ryche this year, and both came at home.  Shawn Green, on the other hand, hit four home runs against Akron pitching this year, and all four were hit in Akron.

Of course, the Ryche weren't throwing Martinez and Mulder twice in a best-of-seven series, so all of those numbers go out the window.  Both of these teams are going to hit no matter where they are.  So this series boils down to which team has the better arms.  Unfortunately for Hippos fans, that just isn't a fair contest.

Prediction:

The Akron Ryche should have no trouble with the Hippos.   Look for Game Four to be a high-scoring contest featuring a ton of home runs.

Akron in four.

Kansas Law Dogs vs. Allentown Ridgebacks

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

In April of last year, Kansas Law Dogs GM Chris Luhning held a firesale, shipping off several star players - even to teams within his own division - despite the fact that he was in the thick of the EL wild card race at the time.  This season, in February, Luhning traded David Wells - a 19-game winner with a sub-4.00 ERA at the MLB level in 2002 - in exchange for two prospects who had no value whatsoever to the 2003 Law Dogs.  Many (including myself) thought Luhning was throwing in the towel once again, despite the fact that he was once again in the thick of a pennant race at the time.  Luhning, however, vehemently denied that he had given up.

The next chapter, Luhning traded his best pitcher (and some would say the best pitcher in baseball), Derek Lowe, in exchange for a pitcher (Tim Hudson) that had drastically underperformed all season.  Once again, it appeared that the Law Dogs had downgraded this season in an effort to better themselves in 2004 and beyond.  And once again, Luhning denied that this was the case.

In the end, it appears that this was merely all part of Luhning's master plan.  The Law Dogs had a winning percentage of .536 before the trade of Wells and .652 after.  Before the Lowe trade, Kansas's winning percentage was .574.  Afterward, it was .660.  Yes, Chris Luhning actually managed to improve his team by trading away his two best pitchers!  Such is life on Planet Coors.

Luhning's rebuilding effort in 2002 netted two important players for this season: Lowe (acquired for the soon-thereafter-deceased Darryl Kile) and Pat Burrell (acquired along with Marcus Giles and Andy Ashby for Luis Gonzalez and Ivan Rodriguez.)

The Law Dogs entered the winter with a powerful offense that included Burrell, Troy Glaus, Jermaine Dye and J.D. Drew.  Last winter, Luhning added to that offense by swapping Drew, Dye and prospect John-Ford Griffin for Carlos Beltran and Bobby Abreu.  Then, for an encore, he acquired Jeff Kent from the Villanova Mustangs in exchange for Josh Fogg (yes, THE Josh Fogg.)  Luhning also added to his pitching rotation by trading Troy Glaus, Giles and Ricky Stone to the Oakland Homicide for Russ Ortiz.

As the year progressed, Luhning kept adding more and more punch to his offense.  Thanks to a hyperactive, waffling fish, he was able to swap Abreu and Beltran for Sammy Sosa and Steve Finley.  In that same trade, he also upgraded his pitching staff once again, swapping Andy Ashby for Matt Clement.  Darren Holmes and Buddy Groom were added to the bullpen that same chapter, in exchange for...well, not much at all.

During the final chapter of the trading season, Luhning was at it again, acquiring Eric Hinske for a pair of prospects.  By the time trading season ended and the all the smoke cleared, the Law Dogs starting lineup was looking like version 2.001 and Chris Luhning was sitting on top of the division.

The Allentown Ridgebacks began this season heavily favored to repeat as BDBL champions after returning the core of their powerhouse 2002 championship roster.  With a rotation headed by Randy Johnson (a 2002 draft pick), Curt Schilling (acquired in the infamous Russ Ortiz trade) and Roy Oswalt (the third overall pick of the 2001 farm draft), how could the Ridgebacks have not been favored to win it all?

The 2002 championship offense lost a few key bats from their championship lineup, including Barry Bonds, Edgar Martinez, Ellis Burks and - the biggest loss of all - Russ Johnson.  But Allentown GM Tom "The Emperor" DiStefano was able to replace Martinez with Larry Walker (an $11 million signing in the free agent auction) and Burks with Ryan Klesko (acquired from the South Carolina Sea Cats last winter in exchange for Wade Miller.)  With Manny Ramirez returning from the previous year and 2002 mid-season free agent pick-ups Junior Spivey and Mark Bellhorn coming out of nowhere to have career years, the Ridgebacks offense looked as strong as ever heading into the season.

Then, on May 30th of this year, DiStefano orchestrated (or didn't orchestrate, depending upon whom you believe) a four-team trade that, in the end, netted him the greatest offensive player in the history of baseball, Barry Bonds.  In exchange, the Ridgebacks "sacrificed" Klesko, Brad Wilkerson, Robert Fick, Bellhorn, Andrew Miller, John Maine, Brandon Duckworth and Adam Eaton.  By inserting the greatest offensive player in the history of baseball into a lineup between Manny Ramirez and Larry Walker, with a pitching rotation fronted by Johnson, Schilling and Oswalt, the fate of the season seemed to have been decided.

How they've done this year:

The Ridgebacks began the season as the odds-on favorites to win not only the division, but the EL championship and the BDBL championship.  By the end of the first two chapters, Allentown was sitting pretty in first place, with a healthy winning percentage of .611.  But from Chapter Three until the end of the season, Allentown's winning percentage dipped to "just" .585, and the Ridgebacks actually trailed the Law Dogs by eight games over the final four chapters.

What happened?  Well, Allentown did win 95 games, and their Pythagorean record suggests they could have easily won 99, so the season could hardly be labeled a disappointment.  However, it was still a bit less than we all expected, wasn't it?  By all rights, a team with that kind of pitching staff and offense should dominate.  The fact that they didn't probably has something to do with timely hitting and pitching, as their 17-18 record in one-run games indicates.   Apparently, whatever bug bit the Salem Cowtippers this year also bit the Ridgebacks - only not quite so thoroughly.

What no one (no one except the three people that voted for them in the pre-season poll, that is) expected was that the Law Dogs would still be leading their division by the time all was said and done.  Kansas featured a powerful lineup and one great pitcher, but not much else to get excited about, and certainly not a team that belonged in the same dimension as the Ridgebacks.  Yet the 'Dogs not only hung in there from the beginning to the end, they won the division by a comfortable margin.

The Kansas offense, with the help of their gravity-defying ballpark, once again led the world in batting average, OBP, slugging, runs, hits and home runs.  Allentown ranked just fourth in runs scored, though posting numbers (.271/.354/.460, 861 runs scored) that were more than respectable.

Allentown's 3.95 ERA was second-best in the Eck League, while Kansas placed a respectable sixth with a 4.64 ERA - by far, the best ERA in franchise history.  Allentown's trio of Johnson, Schilling and Oswalt combined for a whopping 805 innings, winning 59 games and posting a 3.41 collective ERA with 883 strikeouts against just 148 walks.  Kansas squeezed 23 wins out of Russ Ortiz despite a 5.25 ERA, and Hudson (8-6, 4.22 in 162 innings) did an admirable job of replacing Lowe (who was 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 91 innings before his trade.)  Matt Clement (6-7, 3.38) also did a tremendous job for the Law Dogs upon his arrival.

The Kansas bullpen of Darren Holmes (1-0, 2.31 as a Law Dog), Braden Looper (9-1, 2.31), Buddy Groom (1-0, 3.31 for Kansas), Jose Jimenez (2-3, 3.49, 14 SV) and Mike DeJean (5-5, 3.81, 13 SV) got the job done, allowing just 26.4% of inherited runners to score - best in the league.  Allentown's relief corps of closer Eric Gagne (2-7, 2.39, 32 SV), Mark Hendrickson (1-0, 1.23 as a Ridgeback), Jayson Durocher (6-4, 2.98) and Tim Worrell (2-3, 4.25) was effective, though the Ridgebacks blew 18 games when leading or tied after seven innings - second only to the Fire Ants and Slyme.

How they've done against each other this year:

Allentown and Kansas tied each other 8-8 this season, with Allentown barely outscoring Kansas 97-90.  In all, Allentown went 3-5 at Kansas and 5-3 at home.  118 runs were scored by the two teams in Kansas, 69 at Allentown.

In four starts against Kansas (one of which he left with an injury after facing just one batter), Johnson threw 20.2 innings, allowing 30 hits and 7 walks while whiffing 24 and posting an ERA of 6.97.  Schilling started SIX times (42.2 IP, 44 H, 4 BB, 46 K, 4.85), faring a little better.  And Oswalt started four times (24 IP, 35 H, 7 BB, 19 K, 6.00).  For Kansas, Ortiz got the ball three times (21 IP, 18 H, 6 BB, 13 K, 4.71 ERA), Hudson started three times as well (18.2 IP, 20 H, 7 BB, 14 K, 4.82), as did Clement (17.1 IP, 19 H, 14 BB, 17 K, 5.71).

Keys to the series:

The Ridgebacks tried and failed to employ a three-man rotation throughout the playoffs last year.  Despite having three pitchers with durability ratings of Vg or Ex, DiStefano was somehow unable to use these guys on three days rest.  The precedent is there, however, for such a feat to be accomplished, as the Stamford Zoots employed a three-man rotation throughout the playoffs in 1999, 2000 and 2001.  Last year, the Ridgebacks were able to get away with it because Wade Miller was their #4 starter.  This year, their #4 starter is Jake Peavy (2-1, 6.07 ERA.)   Needless to say, having a three-man rotation will be imperitive for the Ridgebacks this year.

Of course, in order to ensure that his pitchers will be ready to go on just three days of rest, DiStefano will have to keep their pitch counts low - and that won't be easy do to at the Fields of Tombstone.  In Johnson's two starts in Kansas this year, he threw 84 pitches in just five innings and 122 pitches in seven innings.  In Schilling's three starts in Kansas, he threw 88, 107 and 111 pitches in 4.1, 7.0 and 7.1 innings.  In Oswalt's two Kansas starts, he threw 101 and 98 pitches in 7.0 and 5.0 innings, respectively.

It can be done, but the Ridgebacks will have to rely heavily upon their bullpen, which has been unreliable at times this season.  If these games boil down to a battle of the bullpens, the advantage would shift to Kansas.

The bottom line is that there is no way to predict a short series when the Fields of Tombstone is involved.  Simply put: no lead is safe in Kansas.

Prediction:

This is going to be a classic, wild-and-wacky BDBL series, with plenty of excitement, lead changes, pitching changes, rallies, big innings, home runs by unlikely hitters and enough heartburn and stress to send Tom DiStefano right over the edge.

Allentown in seven.

How the Championship Series may play out:

In a way, the EL Championship Series could be determined by how many games it takes the Akron Ryche to dispose of the Wapakoneta Hippos.  If the Ryche can put them away early, their rotation will be set up so that Pedro and Mulder will get four starts in the ELCS.  If it takes six or seven games to beat the Hippos, Akron would need Woody Williams and Jason Schmidt to step up big-time.

Akron split the season series with Kansas at 6-6, but lost eight of twelve to Allentown.  No matter who faces the Ryche, it should be a very competitive and exciting series.

If Allentown beats Kansas, I'll pick Allentown to advance to the World Series.  If Kansas wins the ELDS, I'll pick Akron to advance.

How the World Series may play out:

Look for the Zoots to capture their fourth World Series championship in five years.  The Eck League teams may look better on paper, but the Zoots have both Lady Luck and the Baseball Gods on their side.  Look for small-time bench players to play big-time roles in the victory, look for timely hits and clutch pitching going Stamford's way, and look for Billy Romaniello, Jim Doyle and Bobby Sylvester to pitch in and rebuild another championship team in Stamford this winter so we can do this all over again next year.