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May 30, 2003 The TradeIt happens every year. Every year, a great team is made unbeatable with one mind-boggling, logic-defying trade where they give up next-to-nothing and get a player (or players) that put their team so far over the top, there is literally no point to playing out the rest of the season. In 1999, it was the Randy Johnson trade. In 2000, it was the John Smoltz trade. In 2001, it was the Salmon/Nevin trade. And last year, it was the Curt Schilling trade. Despite my prediction just one month ago on this very page that 2003 would be the first year without "The Trade", it has happened yet again. When Mike Stein ended up with Barry Bonds in the auction last winter, I was at first astonished, then relieved (that Bonds didn't go to Allentown), then frightened. Stein owning Barry Bonds is akin to Kim Jong Il owning a nuclear weapon. You just never know what that crazy bastard is going to do with a weapon so powerful. Needless to say, my worst fears have been fully realized. I like to judge trades on three levels: 1) how the trade helps the teams immediately, 2) how the trade helps the teams next season, and 3) how the trade helps the teams in future years. Let's break down this trade using that criteria. 1. How this trade helps these teams immediately I really don't need to tell you how Bonds completely changes the Allentown offense. With Bonds, Larry Walker and Manny Ramirez in the middle of the Ridgebacks lineup, you may as well pencil in the R-Backs for 500 runs scored in the second half of the season. That alone should give Allentown a healthy cushion over the Kansas Law Dogs by September 1st, and an enormous advantage in the post-season. Wilkerson (.213/.317/.338) and Bellhorn (.223/.320/.463) weren't really helping the Ridgebacks anyway this season, so their loss is addition by subtraction. Klesko (.287/.383/.552) has been hitting well, but with Bonds now in the picture, who needs him? With Bonds, Fred McGriff and Julio Lugo replacing Wilkerson, Bellhorn and Klesko, I estimate that the Ridgebacks have gained 68 runs with this trade:
Needless to say, 68 runs is an enormous amount of runs. So, offensively, there's no question that the Ridgebacks have improved themselves greatly with this trade. Now, what about defensively? With the loss of Wilkerson, the Ridgebacks have no true center fielder in the starting lineup. How great of a loss will that be? Well, Wilkerson has poor range in center and has committed six errors already this season. If the Ridgebacks put any one of their outfielders in center, would it really be that much of a downgrade? I seriously doubt it. I mean - it's tough to be poorer than poor, right? On the mound, Allentown lost their #4 pitcher, Brandon Duckworth, in this deal. How great of a loss is that? Well, the Duck-man is currently sporting a 6.75 ERA for the R-Backs, so you tell me. I'm sure that, given his MLB numbers, he would improve in the second half, though no one knows for sure. Will Duckworth's replacement in the rotation, Jacob Peavy, sport an ERA lower than 6.75 in the second half? I would bet that he will. So again, no loss there. You could also argue that, with McGriff moving into the starting lineup and the trade of Fick, the Ridgebacks have lost a bit of depth on the bench. That is true. However, when you have a starting lineup like Allentown's, do you really need a bench? (See the '02 Cowtippers, for example.) There's no doubt, then, that this was an all-around win for the Ridgebacks. What about the Cleveland Rocks, who were the masterminds behind this trade? Bonds has singlehandedly carried them the entire season. How will Cleveland be able to maintain their close proximity to the playoffs without him? The Rocks are replacing four and a half spots in their lineup with this trade. (Five if you count the Preston Wilson trade, which I won't do in this exercise.) Despite Mike Stein's assertion that he has improved his run-scoring capability with this trade, my estimate is that the Rocks have lost eight runs with this trade:
Now, you could argue that Wilkerson and Bellhorn will improve in the second half, given their MLB numbers, and you'd probably be right. If both perform as well as they did in the big leagues throughout the second half, the Rocks will have gained about 15 runs with this trade. Is fifteen runs enough to catch the Akron Ryche in the division race? Probably not. Is it enough to catch the Kansas Law Dogs in the wild card race? Again, highly unlikely. The Rocks are being out-scored by their opponents this season by 18 runs. So adding 15 to their side means they'd still be out-scored by their competition. No team has ever made the BDBL playoffs while being out-scored by their competition (though the Akron Ryche came close last year.) The fact that the Rocks are even anywhere near the playoff hunt right now is a statistical miracle. Can they keep it up for another three chapters? Sure. But if they do, it'll have more to do with Robb Nen and Trevor Hoffman than the players acquired in this trade. Since this trade has no current effect on the Villanova Mustangs or Great Lakes Sphinx, we'll move ahead to the next category. 2. How this trade helps these teams next year With the acquisition of Bonds comes the addition of an extra $16.5 million in salary against the cap. After this trade, the Ridgebacks will have $51 million allocated to ten players for next season (not including option-year keepers.) However, that ten-player foundation is good enough to get into the playoffs all by itself. Assuming Randy Johnson bounces back into form, Roy Oswalt is healthy, and Jesse Foppert and Jake Peavy begin to pitch to their potential in the second half, that's a pretty good rotation. Offensively, Allentown will have Bonds and Walker in the middle of the lineup, with Marcus Giles, Paul LoDuca, Craig Wilson and the infamous Rocco Baldelli providing filler. Those players alone could score 650 runs. Of course, the thing I love the most about Allentown (and Stamford) trades is the "throw-ins". Getting Bonds wasn't enough, apparently. The Ridgebacks also had to get some players for the future thrown in as well. Jeff D'Amico (3.69 ERA over 61 IP) is having a great year, and if he keeps it up, he'll be well worth his $2 million salary. His inclusion in this trade is simply dumbfounding. Cleveland dumped Bonds' $16.5 million salary, but they've picked up $15.1 million in salary between Floyd ($7m), Klesko ($6m) and Sasaki ($2.1m), so it's almost a wash. Unfortunately for Cleveland, Klesko (currently hitting .239/.367/.478), Floyd (.251/.352/.515) and Sasaki (4.86 ERA) are all having sub-par seasons in the big leagues this season. Suffice it to say, Allentown's $16.5m investment will be better spent than Cleveland's. Wilkerson (.299/.409/.518) is having a terrific year, and should be a $100k bargain for the Rocks next year and beyond. The difficult part will be deciding how long to sign him at the end of this season. Baseball Prospectus lists Jeromy Burnitz as the most comparable player to Wilkerson, with Bobby Higginson coming in third. If the 25-year-old Wilkerson follows the same career paths as those two, Cleveland would be best served by signing him to no more than a couple of years. And then, there's Andrew Miller. I can't help but think Miller was included just to irk me. If that was the purpose, the goal was met. Any pitcher that walks 68 batters in 70 innings his senior year in high school is not a prospect. I don't care if he throws 150 mph. Case closed. It's easy to see why Villanova got involved in this mess. Not only were they able to dump Floyd's salary ($15 million over the next two years), but Sasaki's ($5.2 million over the next two) as well. That $20 million will come in handy at the auction. Losing D'Amico may come back to haunt the Mustangs, as I don't think his inclusion was necessary to getting this deal done. Neither was Felix Rodriguez's inclusion, for that matter. Allentown surely would have made the deal without those two, so it makes little sense to give them away for nothing when both had considerable trade value by themselves. 'Nova picked up three pitchers in this trade, all with low salaries and questionable health statuses. Adam Eaton missed nearly the entire season last year to Tommy John surgery, and has missed part of this season to a groin injury. He's currently sporting an ugly 4.85 ERA while pitching in one of the league's best pitchers parks, and owns a 7.88 ERA in the month of May. At just $1 million, though, he might be worth taking a flier on for another year. Brandon Duckworth has also lost a significant amount of time to the DL this season, and is sporting a 5.47 ERA. The most promising part of Duckworth was the BB/K ratio he posted last year, but that seems to have evaporated this year (12/19 through 26+ IP). Duckworth is signed through 2006, so 'Nova had better hope he gets healthy in a hurry. Brandon Webb burst onto the scene out of nowhere, but was assigned to the DL with elbow problems just yesterday. He may be okay, or he may follow the Adam Eaton career path. At this point, we don't know. I'm not sure why Great Lakes got involved in this trade at all. They didn't give up much (Lugo, Rowand and Nelson), and didn't get much (John Maine and Boof Bonser) in return. Both Bonser and Maine are pitching well in the minors this year, so if one or both of those guys pan out, this trade was worthwhile. 3. How this trade helps these teams in the future Two years from now, it's likely that none of the players acquired by Allentown will still be with the team. Of the players "sacrificed" in this deal, Tom DiStefano might lose a few minutes of sleep over Wilkerson, but may breath a sigh of relief two years from now when Duckworth and Eaton are earning $4.1 million combined. Aside from Wilkerson, Cleveland will have nothing to show for this trade two years from now except a $11.1 million burden by the name of Clifford Sasaki. It's my guess that either Cleveland will unload these players somehow or eat $5.5 million in penalties to get rid of them (I'll bet the latter.) The future of this trade from Villanova's standpoint rests solely upon the health of Duckworth, Eaton and Webb. Speculating on how those three will perform two years from now would be nothing but mere...well...speculation. For Great Lakes, the future lies in the right arms of Maine and Bonser. There isn't much more to add to it than that. In Conclusion... The fact that the Ridgebacks were able to add nearly 70 runs to their offense without having to part with either Jesse Foppert or Jacob Peavy is beyond comprehension. The fact that they were able to do so while adding a pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA for next year is just plain ridiculous. I can't pretend to understand how Tom DiStefano does what he does. Like his Jedi master, he always seems to be in the right place at the right time. I can only tip my hat to him with regard to his skills at the trading table. For Mike Stein, there is no rational explanation for his behavior. He is no stranger to taking huge risks that never seem to pay off. Last year, for example, he traded Roy Halladay and Joel Piniero for a one-in-a-million shot at making the playoffs. He came up just short. The Cleveland franchise always comes up just short. In each of the first two years of this league's existence, Cleveland lost a one-game playoff after tying for the wild card lead. In the third season, Cleveland won 92 games, but finished a distant third. Last year, their dream of reaching the post-season ended during the final series of the season. Even after making this trade (and the Litchfield trade), the odds of the Cleveland Rocks finishing with a better record than either the Akron Ryche or Kansas Law Dogs are remote at best. So why do it? Why hand the trophy to Tom DiStefano, without making him sacrifice anything of value in order to gain that glory? Why not stick with Bonds and take your chances? And if you're going to trade the best baseball player in the history of the sport, why not do so only if you can get an overwhelming return for either the current season or future seasons? These are questions that will never be answered, unfortunately. The trade is complete, and there's nothing we can do about it now. While it's true that "anything can happen in a short series", the Ridgebacks certainly appear to be about as unbeatable as any baseball team could ever be. When the Ridgebacks do repeat as BDBL champions, they should send a thank-you card to Mike Stein for making it all possible. |