January 28, 2004

2004 Season Preview

In the end, the story didn't quite play out the way it did in the movies.  Darth Vader disposed of The Emperor, holding true to the plot line.  But instead of recognizing the inner Jedi within himself and embracing the Light Side just before his ultimate demise, Vader instead retreated even further into the darkness.  It was a sad ending to what had been an extraordinary season, filled with the types of plot twists only a team of Hollywood writers could conceive.

This season appears to be the dawn of a new era.   Both Vader and The Emperor aren't nearly as intimidating as they have been in recent past, and several new teams are emerging to claim their stakes at the top of the BDBL mountain.  The Zoots, Ridgebacks and Ryche no longer have dominant pitching, and the Law Dogs no longer have a dominant offense.  The only comforting consistency in the BDBL this season is that the Los Altos Undertakers will once again feature a bullpen filled with one-out specialists and a lineup filled with short-usage pinch hitters.

In addition to a possible changing of the guards, 2004 marks the beginning of a new era in terms of divisional alignment.  The new radical realignment passed last season has given birth to many juicy storylines over the coming year - and for years afterward.

Before I preview the coming season, I like to hold myself accountable by taking a look back at the predictions I made last year at this time.  All in all, last year was not the best year for Kreskin Glander.  The year before last, I predicted all six division winners.  Last year...well...:

• Of the six division races, I only got three division winners right.
• I did, however, predict that Allentown would face Stamford in the World Series.
• I didn't, however, correctly pick the winner of that series.  (Note: I didn't correctly make that prediction until mid-summer, after the Millwood trade.)
• My worst prediction: that the South Carolina Sea Cats would win their division.  (They'd finish in last place, 27 games out of first.)
• My best prediction: "After a surprising 4-2 start to the season, Stein trades every good, young player on the roster in a desperate attempt to win the division.  But alas, the effort falls short once again.  Meanwhile, the League Office officially allows Bonds to run directly from the on-deck circle to first base to save time."
• My funniest prediction: "After a 122-win season, the Ridgebacks sweep their way into an all-Sith World Series against the Stamford Zoots.   As the sixth out of the sixth inning in Game Six is being recorded, the Earth's core erupts, bursting through the surface of the planet, creating a fiery rain of sulfur upon all living things.  Men, women and children suffer slow, agonizing deaths while the Sun is extinguished by dark clouds of poisonous smoke, bringing perpetual darkness to the land.  Eventually, every living thing on the planet is destroyed - all except Tom and Paul, who go on to play Game Seven."

I wasn't the only one whose psychic powers were off last year.  In league polling, you all correctly picked only three of the six division winners as well.  You also picked Marlboro to be the Ozzie League champion.  And two of you actually picked New Milford to be the Ozzie League champ!  Only one person correctly predicted that the Zoots would win it all.  (Another win for Mrs. Marazita.)

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Salem Cowtippers

Owner: Mike Glander
2003 Record: 87-73 (2nd place in the Benes Division)
Franchise Record: 498-302 (2nd place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Barry Zito, Kerry Wood, Brandon Webb, Curt Schilling and Tomo Ohka.
Bullpen: Guillermo Mota, Francisco Cordero, Gabe White, Cliff Lee and Rick Bauer.
Projected Lineup: Michael Young, Sean Burroughs, Trot Nixon/Brian Buchanan, Lance Berkman, Luis Gonzalez/Milton Bradley, Mark Teixeira/J.T. Snow, Benjie Molina and Neifi Perez/Craig Counsell.

Strengths: Whether or not the 2004 Cowtippers rotation is the best in league history is debatable, but there is no question that it is the best rotation in the league right this minute. With four bona-fide aces and a #5 pitcher that ranks among the top 25 pitchers in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus, Salem's rotation is without a doubt the deepest rotation in league history.  The bullpen is not nearly as deep, but is headed by two legitimate, lights-out closers in Mota and Cordero.  Both the left-handed and right-handed lineups are stacked with high-power, high-on-base hitters from one through seven, and the bench is deeper than it has been in years for this franchise.

Weaknesses: Salem's middle relief is a bit weak, and the lineup against lefties could be a bit stronger - two areas the team will look to improve during the season.

Outlook: This is probably the best team the Cowtippers have ever assembled.  Playing in a new division against tougher competition, coming off a season in which they failed to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, the 'Tippers are looking to prove something in 2004.  Last season, the team's outlook on paper didn't quite translate to its on-field performance.  This year, if the Cowtippers are able to perform as well as expected, it could be a very short pennant race in the Butler Division.

Prediction: 1st place and the OL championship.  I'd like to predict a BDBL championship for this team, but I know better than that.

Litchfield Lightning

Owner: Phil Geisel
2003 Record: 69-91 (2nd place in the Griffin Division)
Franchise Record: 431-369 (6th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Esteban Loaiza, Bartolo Colon, Carl Pavano, Kurt Ainsworth and Damian Moss.
Bullpen: Joe Borowski, Jorge Julio, Braden Looper and Nelson Figueroa.
Projected Lineup: Derek Jeter, John Olerud, Jim Edmonds, Jody Gerut, Jeromy Burnitz, Marlon Anderson, Rondell White and Greg Norton/Tomas Perez. 

Strengths: Loaiza and Colon give the Lightning a quality one-two punch that can go toe-to-toe with most other teams in the league.

Weaknesses: Both the back half of the rotation and the bullpen are a bit thin, and the lineup is extremely vulnerable to lefty pitching.  Ainsworth is available for only 75 innings, meaning Moss (5.16 ERA) and Steve Sparks (4.88) will be seeing quite a few starts this season.   Against lefties, the Lightning have virtually no choice but to start Olerud (628 OPS), Gerut (587) and Burnitz (748).  Litchfield is also apparently committed to starting Edmonds (.225 BA, .320 OBP) full-time against lefties.

Outlook: The Lightning organization is still paying for Geisel's bone-headed decision to head into the 2003 draft with just seven players on his 35-man roster.  By doing so, the team couldn't begin drafting until the 11th round that year, and though they accidentally stumbled upon a few keepers (most notably the Cy Young candidate Loaiza), their focus was on finding large numbers of at-bats and innings - not in getting quality players for 2004 and beyond.  Then again, this team's focus has always been a little myopic.  Last summer, for example, the Lightning rejected a trade that would have netted top-five prospect B.J. Upton in exchange for $10 million starter Colon.  This past winter, they took on $11.5 million in salary in the infamous Edmonds deal, essentially shutting them out of the auction.  With no money to spend, and no cheap free agent pick-ups acquired during the course of the past five years, they were forced to spend what little money they had on band-aid picks like Marlon Anderson and Braden Looper.  Very little thought is ever given to tomorrow in Lightning Land.  This year - and next year as well - they have committed over half of their cap money ($32.5 million) to Jeter, Colon and Edmonds alone.  Yet despite all the nonsensical decisions by the front office, Litchfield somehow finds a way to finish in second place every single year.  This year, they'd be happy to make it six years in a row.

Prediction: 2nd place...again.

Stamford Zoots

Owner: Paul Marazita
2003 Record: 115-45 (BDBL champions*)
Franchise Record: 527-273 (1st place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Mark Buehrle, Woody Williams, Jerome Williams and Bung-Hole Kim.
Bullpen: Shiggy Hasegawa, Brian Fuentes, Scott Linebrink, Alan Embree and Travis Harper.
Projected Lineup: Jose Vidro, Carlos Baerga, David Ortiz/Wil Cordero, Manny Ramirez, Moises Alou, Corey Patterson/Bernie Williams, Chris Woodward, Lou Merloni/Jose Hernandez and Brian Schneider.

Strengths: The Stamford lineup is very strong from one to five, and the bullpen is very deep and talented.  Ortiz, Ramirez and Alou form a very potent heart of the lineup, and with Vidro and Baerga setting the table, expect all three to rack up more than 100 RBI's.  Hasegawa is ranked as the fifth-best reliever in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus, and with Fuentes and Linebrink serving as setup men, 40 saves isn't out of the question.

Weaknesses: The starting rotation has no dominant ace, unlike past years, and is in desperate need of quality innings.  Buehrle just isn't the same pitcher that tore through the league in the second half of last year.  While Woody Williams is a nice pitcher, he probably wouldn't have made the post-season roster for the Zoots in any of the past five years.  Jerome Williams and Kim have just 253 innings between them, which means Stamford will be forced to turn to guys like Jimmy Haynes (6.30 ERA), Denny Stark (5.83) and Danny Wright (6.15) to eat some innings.  The bottom-third of the lineup is very weak as well, even with the presence of the great Lou Merloni.

Outlook: The Zoots have won four out of five championships thanks in great part to their strong pitching.  This year, that pitching simply doesn't exist.  It's hard to imagine the BDBL playoffs without the Stamford Zoots, but I think that is where we're heading.  The league was able to live with a Salem-less November last year.  Maybe, just maybe, we'll be able to live with a Zoots-less November this year.

Prediction: 3rd place.  The Zoots will eventually unload some salary and some talent in an effort to rebuild, and will finish with just enough wins to avoid a Rule 7.16 penalty.

New Milford Blazers

Owner: Billy Baseball
2003 Record: 66-94 (3rd place in the Griffin Division)
Franchise Record: 281-519 (24th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Mike Mussina, Mike Hampton, C.C. Sabathia, Vicente Padilla and Horacio Ramirez.
Bullpen: Justin Speier, Tom Gordon, Mike MacDougal and Dave Veres.
Projected Lineup: Randy Winn, A.J. Pierzynski, Todd Helton, Alfonso Soriano, Jeff Conine, Torii Hunter, David Eckstein and Jeff DaVanon/Tom Goodwin.

Strengths: Mussina and Helton.  Mussina is a legitimate ace and Helton is a pre-season candidate for the coveted OL Babe Ruth award.  The starting rotation, though not necessarily dominant, is very deep, with five quality starters.  The starting lineup is decent from one to five, with a bit higher OBP than last year's version.

Weaknesses: The bullpen is very weak, with no bona-fide stopper.  Bullpen innings may become an issue unless New Milford is willing to hand the ball over to some really gruesome pitchers in the late innings (which wouldn't be too far out of the norm, historically.)  Though the rotation beyond Mussina is deep, it is average at best.  #2 pitcher Mike Hampton isn't going to strike fear into any team's heart this season.  The bench couldn't be more shallow.

Outlook: Last year on this page, I predicted that New Milford would finally break their streak of losing 90+ games and win the OL wild card.  The year before that, on this same page, I predicted the Blazers would finish in second place with their first winning season in franchise history.  I'm not going to make the same mistake again.  The Blazers have now lost 90 or more games five years in a row.  I'll side with history and predict they'll make it six.  Last year, New Milford traded some highly-desirable trade bait - Kevin Millwood, Randy Winn, Wil Cordero, Shiggy Hasegawa and Mark Guthrie - without getting one player in return that can be of help to them in 2004 or beyond.  Unless New Milford can find a way to get more in return for their prime trade bait, this vicious cycle will continue again and again and again.

Prediction: 4th place.  Unless Billy gets together with Geisel and Paul to form the Stamilfordfield Blazootnings, this team is heading for another 100-loss season.

Ravenswood Infidels

Owner: Brian "Skizm" Potrafka
2003 Record: 78-82 (3rd place in the Butler Division)
Franchise Record: 406-394 (11th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Johan Santana, Dontrelle Willis, Jae Wong Seo, Miguel Batista and Garrett Stephenson.
Bullpen: Damaso Marte, Paul Quantrill, Ray King, Dan Miceli, Leo Estrella and Danny Kolb.
Projected Lineup: Alex Cintron, Luis Matos/Desi Relaford, Carlos Delgado, Ivan Rodriguez, Eric Chavez/Eduardo Perez, Adam Dunn/Larry Bigbie, Frank Catalanotto/Dustin Mohr and Mark Ellis.

Strengths: There is not an easy out in the starting lineup from one to eight.   Delgado is a monster in the middle of the lineup, flanked by quality hitters on both sides.  Unlike some past versions of the Madison Fighting Mimes lineup, the Infidels feature a well-balanced offense in terms of lefties and righties.  The starting rotation is solid, and the bullpen should be extremely effective, led by the lefty/righty killer combo of Marte and Quantrill.

Weaknesses: With the division-rival Hammerheads being such a righty-heavy offensive team, it would be nice if the two best pitchers on the Infidels weren't left-handed.  But other than that, there are few nits to pick on this club.

Outlook: For years, Brian Hicks begged to be moved out of the Zoots's division.  Now that his wish has been granted, it is ironic that he is no longer here to enjoy it.   Brian Potrafka's first year in the BDBL should be a very exciting one, with a heated divisional battle against Sharky Kaminski and the Hammerheads.  After playing sixteen games against The Shark, Brian may seriously reconsider his decision to join this league.

Prediction: 1st place.  How many games the Infidels finish ahead of the Hammerheads depends upon how many times Sharky changes his mind over whether to build or compete.

Marlboro Hammerheads

Owner: Ken "The Shark" Kaminski
2003 Record: 90-70 (1st place)
Franchise Record: 381-419 (14th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Roger Clemens, Matt Morris and Carlos Zambrano.
Bullpen: Matt Mantei, Wilson Alvarez, Jeff Nelson and Ryan Wagner.
Projected Lineup: Juan Pierre, Melvin Mora, Mike Lowell, Derek Lee, Miguel Tejada, Raul Mondesi/Scott Spiezio, Ray Durham and Jason LaRue/Brad Ausmus.

Strengths: Three all-star-caliber starting pitchers and an excellent lineup from one to seven.  Clemens, Morris and Zambrano are each capable of winning 15 games this season.  With Kaminski Park favoring right-handed hitters and Pro Player Stadium being so tough on righties, look for Lowell and Lee to hit at least 80 homers combined.

Weaknesses: Where on earth are the Hammerheads going to find enough innings for their starting rotation?  After the trade of Wells, this team has no #4 starter.  Alvarez can spot-start, but he is only good for 104 innings this year, and moving him to the rotation would significantly weaken the bullpen.  Offensively, because Marlboro's offense is so righty-heavy, they may be easy to exploit.   Even with Alvarez, the bullpen is in serious need of some quality innings.  Mantei and Wagner are the team's two best relievers, and they combined for just 76 innings last year.  At some point soon, the Hammerheads will need to trade for a bullpen arm (which I'm sure will be no problem for Trader Kaminski.)

Outlook: All in all, the Hammerheads look just as good on paper this year as they did last year, when they advanced to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.   Similar to last season, the Hammerheads should once again find themselves in the midst of a heated divisional battle this season.  Assuming Kaminski doesn't pull another nutty and trade away half his team, Marlboro should be able to see November baseball once again.

Prediction: 2nd place and the OL wild card (assuming the Hammerheads don't get off to a 1-3 start, leading to a firesale.) 

Manchester Irish Rebels

Owner: Jim Doyle
2003 Record: 68-92 (third place)
Franchise Record: 338-462 (23rd place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Brian Anderson, Victor Zambrano, Kenny Rogers, Rodrigo Lopez and Elmer Dessens.
Bullpen: Billy Wagner, Mariano Rivera, Julian Tavarez, Luis Ayala and Mark Guthrie.
Projected Lineup: Erubiel Durazo, Marquis Grissom/Carl Everett, Jorge Posada, Brett Boone, Jose Guillen, Reggie Sanders, Miguel Cabrera/Ron Coomer and Adam Everett/Rey Ordonez.

Strengths: Another year, another strategy for Jim Doyle and the Irish Rebels.  This year, Manchester has scrapped their all-defense/no-offense strategy in favor of an all-offense/no-starting-rotation strategy.  The result is a very impressive lineup featuring a high-on-base, high-power batter in nearly every spot in the lineup.  The bullpen duo of Wagner and Rivera is without a doubt the best in the league, and should lead to many seven-inning games in Manchester this summer.

Weaknesses: Brian Anderson is the ace of the Irish Rebels pitching staff.  'Nuff said?

Outlook: If this offense can score enough runs to give this pitching staff a lead in the seventh inning on a fairly consistent basis, the Irish Rebels could reach the .500 mark.  Can a team win their division on offense and bullpen alone?  I suppose it's possible.  Can a team advance in the playoffs without pitching?  Probably not.

Prediction: 3rd place.  By August 1st, the Irish Rebels will fall out of the race.  By August 2nd, Jim Doyle will devise a completely new team-building strategy for 2005.

Gillette Swamp Rats

Owner: John Bochicchio
2003 Record: 62-98 (4th place in the Griffin Division)
Franchise Record: 358-442 (19th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Brad Radke, Derek Lowe, Jim Brower, Jeff D'Amico and Shane Reynolds.
Bullpen: B.J. Ryan, Brian Reith, Julio Mateo, Billy Traber, Josh Towers and Scott Stewart.
Projected Lineup: Rafael Furcal, Bill Mueller, Javy Lopez, Hideki Matsui, Eric Karros/Brad Fullmer, Johnny Damon, Juan Gonzalez and Alex Cora/Geoff Blum.

Strengths: This might be the strongest starting lineup in Swamp Rats history.   Furcal, Mueller and Lopez are all candidates for the all-star team, and Matsui and the first base platoon of Karros and Fullmer are quality four and five hitters.  Damon and Gonzalez aren't exactly push-overs at the bottom of the lineup, either.

Weaknesses: The Gillette rotation is still a bit weak, even after the team poured $12 million into free agents Radke and Lowe.  Reynolds is going to get hammered in the #4 spot in the rotation, and the Swamp Rats really don't have a good #5 starter.  The bullpen is thinner than Lara Flynn Boyle, which isn't good when the rotation looks like Ally McBeal.

Outlook: The lack of pitching is going to kill this team.  As good as the offense is, it's just not enough.  Unfortunately, there is not a lot of good pitching on the Gillette farm, so Johnny Bo is going to have his work cut out for him trying to discover the next Esteban Loaiza on the free agent scrap heap.

Prediction: 4th place.  The Swamp Rats will save $20 million when free agents Damon and Gonzalez leave for greener pastures.  That will put Gillette in prime position to wildly overspend in the 2005 auction.

Los Altos Undertakers

Owner: Jeff Paulson
2003 Record: 98-62 (1st place)
Franchise Record: 478-322 (3rd place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Jamie Moyer, Darrell May, Shawn Chacon, Ryan Franklin and Odalis Perez.
Bullpen: Eric Gagne, Mike Koplove, Curt Leskanic, Brian Shouse and Scott Sullivan.
Projected Lineup: Mark Loretta, Jose Cruz, Jim Thome, Craig Monroe/Billy McMillon, Jay Gibbons, Ramon Hernandez/Brandon Inge, Jose Valentin and Adrian Beltre/Matt Williams. (What?  Only three platoons??)

Strengths: Please. These are the Los Altos Undertakers we're talking about.  If the team's biggest strength isn't its bullpen, something would seriously be wrong with the universe.  Eric Gagne is more than just a dominant closer - he's Superman.  There aren't too many guaranteed locks in this game, but Gagne is as close as they come.  The rest of the bullpen is filled with the types of one-out specialists we've all grown to know and love.  The starting rotation is very strong, with more lefties than your average Howard Dean rally, and the lineup is solid from one to six.

Weaknesses: A righty-heavy lineup may do some damage against this rotation in a four game series.  Though Moyer actually fares better against righties than lefties, May and Perez are vulnerable to heavy platoons.  Perhaps the Undertakers have stockpiled so many lefty starters in order to avoid having to face them.  Of all the hitters on the active roster, only Monroe and Cruz posted an OPS above 850 against lefties.

Outlook: If nothing else, the Undertakers are consistent.  Each and every year, you can count on them to assemble a bullpen that is filled with suffocating role players and a lineup filled with hitters that had just barely more Major League at-bats last year than I did.  This formula has worked time and time again for Los Altos, so there is no reason to change it.  Though the competition in the Griffin Division has changed, the prospect remains that the Undertakers will win their division without breaking a sweat.

Prediction: 1st place.  Once again, Los Altos runs away with their division.  Once again, Jeff Paulson's (bleep) doesn't work in the playoffs.

Sylmar Padawans

Owner: John Duel
2003 Record: 72-88 (4th place in the Butler Division)
Franchise Record: 365-435 (16th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Tim Wakefield, Jeremi Gonzalez, John Halama, Zach Day, Jason Jennings and Joe Kennedy.
Bullpen: John Smoltz, Francisco Rodriguez, Ricky Stone, Terry Adams, Erasmo Ramirez and Lance Carter.
Projected Lineup: Mike Cameron, John Vander Wal, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jacque Jones/Juan Rivera, Rich Aurilia, Aaron Boone, Damian Miller/Benito Santiago/Miguel Olivo and Casey Blake.

Strengths: A talented bullpen, headed by two lights-out closers in Smoltz and K-Rod.  Gagne got so much attention, it's easy to miss what a fantastic year Smoltz had.  K-Rod was also somewhat overshadowed by his success in the '02 post-season, so his performance last year was underrated as well.

Weaknesses: Both the starting rotation and starting lineup are about as exciting as a Joe Lieberman speech.  When the ace of your staff is Tim Wakefield, and your #3 hitter is Doug Mientkieblahblah, that's not a sign of good things to come.  There probably isn't one all-star candidate among the entire starting lineup and rotation.

Outlook: The Padawans are in a tough spot this year.  They're probably not good enough to win this division, yet there isn't a lot of desirable trade bait on this roster to make the sacrifice of a $2 million penalty worthwhile.   Sylmar's best bet is to be as competitive as possible in 2004, while keeping a sharp eye out for potential '05 bargains.

Prediction: 2nd place, at least 15 games behind the Los Altos juggernaut.

Bear Country Jamboree

Owner: Matt Clemm
2003 Record: 99-61 (2nd place in the Butler Division, OL wild card winners)
Franchise Record: 431-369 (7th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Hideo Nomo, Randy Wolf, John Thomson and Jorge Sosa.
Bullpen: Jason Isringhausen, Brandon Lyon, Chris Reitsma, Stephen Randolph and Chris Spurling.
Projected Lineup: Alex Sanchez, Joe Randa, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Preston Wilson, Carlos Pena, Brook Fordyce/Kelly Stinnett and Brian Roberts/Jeff Reboulet.

Strengths: The best hitter in the Ozzie League, flanked by a capable supporting staff.  A-Rod was a bitter disappointment for the Jamboree last year, as opposing teams loaded up on lefties in order to neutralize Bear Country's two biggest weapons.  This year, A-Rod's numbers are quite a bit more balanced - as are the numbers for the rest of the lineup.  Nomo is a quality #1 starter, and Isringhausen is a capable closer.

Weaknesses: The starting rotation beyond Nomo is merely pedestrian, and the bullpen beyond Isringhausen has led to the installation of a Pepcid AC dispenser in the Bear Country dugout alongside the Gatorade cooler.   It's not that Wolf, Thomson and Sosa are bad pitchers...well, yes it is.  With the new four-game series schedule, it will be difficult to maximize Nomo's starts.   The Jamboree will be forced to throw their Thomsons and Sosas against the best teams in the league.  The bullpen lacks a go-to guy against lefties, and Lyons, Reitsma and Spurling all get crushed by lefties.

Outlook: The Jamboree went all-out last season because they knew it might be their last chance to do so for a while.  The team's best hitter and best pitcher from last year, Jim Thome and Tim Wakefield, both left via free agency, and the acquisition of Maddux last year (who was later exchanged for Sosa) left this team with little money with which to replace them.  The present-day Jamboree are still good enough to avoid any Rule 7.16 penalty this year, and they may even fare well enough to gain some bonus money under that new rule.  They'll have a tough choice to make, however, when the wolves begin barking at the door, asking for Sosa, Wolf and Isringhausen.  With the Undertakers building a potential dynasty through their farm, the Jamboree will be hard-pressed to keep pace over the next few years.  If the temptation to rebuild proves too great, expect Bear Country to finish third or fourth.  If not, second place isn't out of the question.

Prediction: 3rd place.  The temptation is too great.  The Jamboree begin waving the white flag by the end of Chapter Two.

Silicon Valley CyberSox

Owner: Greg Newgard
2003 Record: 62-98 (3rd place in the Higuera Division)
Franchise Record: 361-439 (17th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Jarrod Washburn, Jeriome Robertson, Freddy Garcia, Ron Villone and Kirk Reuter.
Bullpen: Keith Foulke, Scott Williamson, Al Levine, T.J. Tucker and Carlos Silva.
Projected Lineup: Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Larry Walker, Carlos Lee, Greg Myers/Charles Johnson, Wes Helms, Jay Payton and Ben Broussard/Robin Ventura.

Strengths: A high-powered lineup with no sure outs among the starting eight.

Weaknesses: Nearly every player in the starting lineup is vulnerable to platoons, and the second half of each platoon is non-existent.  In particular, Hudson, Broussard and Lee should not be anywhere near a starting lineup when a left-hander is on the mound (which gives the Undertakers a distinct advantage in the 16 games these two teams will be playing this season), yet there don't appear to be any righties on the roster capable of platooning with them.  The starting rotation is well below sub-par, with not an ace in sight (nor a #2 or #3 pitcher, for that matter.)

Outlook: The CyberSox will be tempted to hoist their white flag early this year.   Foulke, Myers, Walker and even Washburn supply enough trade bait to reel in a few impact players for 2005 and beyond.  Depending on whom they get in return, it may be worth taking the $2 million penalty next year.  Then again, whether this teams waves the white flag or not, they may end up paying that penalty regardless.

Prediction: 4th place.  By September 1st, Greg Newgard celebrates the day he traded Barry Zito and rues the day he traded Casey Kotchman.

Kansas Law Dogs

Owner: Chris Luhning
2003 Record: 101-59 (1st place)
Franchise Record: 448-352 (4th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Tim Hudson, Greg Maddux, Russ Ortiz, Pat Hentgen, Jeremy Affeldt and Ruin-Elvis Hernandez.
Bullpen: Brandon Villafuerte, Jason Boyd, D.J. Carrasco, Mike Matthews and Aaron Cook.
Projected Lineup: Angel Berroa, Eric Hinske, Carlos Beltran, Rafael Palmeiro, Jeff Kent, B.J. Surhoff/Jermaine Dye, Pat Burrell and Gary Bennett/Brent Mayne.

Strengths: A very strong starting rotation, led by extreme groundballers Hudson and Maddux.  Beltran, Palmeiro and Kent form a solid middle three in the lineup, and should post impressive numbers in the Fields of Tombstone.

Weaknesses: Is Pat Burrell really the everyday left fielder for this team?  We've become so used to seeing big-time sluggers in the Kansas lineup that this year's version looks a bit weak. The middle three are good, quality, all-around hitters, but the top and bottom three just don't meet the same high standards of franchise past.  In particular, the lineup against right-handed pitching includes just one hitter (Kent) with an OPS above 800 (just barely, at 829).  While the starting rotation is very strong, the bullpen is incredibly thin.  That's not a good thing when so many pitchers are needed over the course of a season, playing 60 games in a ballpark where gravity is in short supply.  With the new four-game series schedule, the lack of bullpen depth could prove to be the downfall of the 'Dogs.

Outlook: The '03 Law Dogs shocked the BDBL world by winning the division over the heavily-favored Ridgebacks.  This year, against much weaker competition, the 'Dogs could easily sneak into the playoff picture for the second year in a row.  Unless they get some bullpen help, however, it could be a very short November once again.

Prediction: 1st place, and another intradivision battle against the Ridgebacks in the ELDS.  This time, Kansas comes out on top.

Allentown Ridgebacks

Owner: Tom DiStefano
2003 Record: 95-65 (2nd place, EL champions)
Franchise Record: 421-379 (9th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Roy Oswalt, Mark Mulder, Sidney Ponson, Jake Peavy and Randy Johnson.
Bullpen: Tim Worrell, Chad Gaudin, Will Cunnane, Scott Schoeneweis and Jack Cressend.
Projected Lineup: Julio Lugo/Tony Graffanino, Corey Koskie, Barry Bonds, Marcus Giles, Matt Stairs/Mike Kinkade, J.D Drew/Craig Wilson, Rocco Baldelli and Dave Ross/Robby Hammock.

Strengths: Barry Bonds, Barry Bonds and Barry Bonds.  But aside from him, the Allentown starting rotation is still very strong, despite the collapse of Johnson and the half-season injury to Oswalt.

Weaknesses: Though the rotation is still strong, it is nowhere near as strong as it has been in the past.  Then again, no other pitching rotation in the history of the BDBL has been stronger than the 2001-2002 Ridgebacks rotation (at least, according to BDBL polls.)   And though Bonds is a one-man wrecking machine, he doesn't have quite the supporting cast he's had in recent years.  Instead of being surrounded by Larry Walker and Manny Ramirez, this year he'll be flanked by Koskie and Giles.  Nice hitters, but no Walker and Ramirez.  Not to mention that Koskie, Stairs and Drew can't start against lefties.  The bullpen is also significantly weaker than it has been in the past.

Outlook: These aren't your twin brother's Ridgebacks.  These guys aren't going to blow anyone away like the Ridgebacks of the past.  The evil has been exorcised from the Empire, and the Emperor is wearing no clothes.  Bonds was enough to fool Cleveland fans into thinking the Rocks were contenders for half a season last year, and he'll be enough to keep these Ridgebacks in contention.  But hard as it is to believe, Barry can't do it all by himself.  He needs just a tiny bit of help, and I'm not sure this Ridgebacks team can give it to him.

Prediction: 2nd place and the EL wild card.  The race between Allentown and Cleveland for the EL wild card will be the most entertaining race this season has to offer.

Villanova Mustangs

Owner: Tony Chamra
2003 Record: 66-94 (3rd place in the Person Division)
Franchise Record: 381-419 (14th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Kevin Millwood, Matt Kinney, Adam Eaton, Gil Meche, Josh Fogg and Rich Harden.
Bullpen: Jason Kershner, Jamie Walker, Jason Stanford, Brandon Duckworth and Brandon Backe.
Projected Lineup: Marlon Byrd, Bobby Kielty/Terrence Long, Brian Giles, Morgan Ensberg, Randall Simon/Travis Hafner, Jimmy Rollins, Edgardo Alfonzo and Einar Diaz/Chad Moeller.

Strengths: Frankly, the biggest strength of this Villanova team is its farm club.  With Harden, Byrd, Casey Kotchman, Garrett Atkins, Jeremy Reed, Andy Marte, Ryan Madson and Adam Wainwright on the way, it won't be long before the Mustangs are ruling this division.  If Millwood and Meche bounce back, and Ensberg and Kielty prove to be consistent contributors, the sky's the limit for this team.

Weaknesses: When the first thing I mention is how great a team's future looks, that should tell you something about its present.  The Mustangs are well aware of their weaknesses, and they've already conceded that 2004 will likely be another rebuilding year.  With the pickups they've made and the free agents they've signed, they're doing everything a team can do to build a winner.

Outlook: The 2004 Mustangs will not be a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. They will win their fair share of games, and may even avoid having to pay a penalty under the newly-established Rule 7.16.  I wouldn't be surprised if this team just makes the cut and goes into 2005 penalty-free.  I would be surprised if this team earns any bonus money, but stranger things have happened in the BDBL.

Prediction: 3rd place.

Great Lakes Sphinx

Owner: Scott Romonosky
2003 Record: 67-93 (last place in the OL Benes Division)
Franchise Record: 355-445 (22nd place all-time)
Projected Rotation: John Burkett, John Garland, Kyle Lohse, Tim Redding and Corey Lidle.
Bullpen: Brad Lidge, Javier Lopez, Steve Kline, Ricardo Rincon, Kevin Gryboski, Dustin Hermanson, Turk Wendell and David Weathers.
Projected Lineup: Eric Byrnes/Endy Chavez, Jason Phillips, Jeff Bagwell, Steve Finley, Ty Wigginton/Eric Munson, Carlos Guillen and Keith Ginter/Shane Halter/Eric Young.

Strengths: Phillips, Bagwell and Finley form a talented core of hitters, and the lineup in general has no glaring weakness from one to eight.  The bullpen is deep and strong, with Lidge able to provide 93 innings of door-slamming goodness in the eighth and ninth.

Weaknesses: The problem for the Sphinx will be getting to the eighth and ninth with a lead, because the starting staff is among the worst in the league.  When John Burkett is your ace, you know you've got some serious problems. 

Outlook: Unfortunately, if the Sphinx do decide to throw in the towel early, there isn't a lot here in terms of attractive trade bait beyond Bagwell, Lidge, Phillips and possibly Finley.  Of those four, the Sphinx will probably want to hold onto Lidge and Phillips, and the market for first basemen and expensive, aging platoon hitters isn't great.   This could be another long year for a franchise that has lost 90 or more games four years in a row.

Prediction: 4th place.  The Sphinx make it five years in a row with 90+ losses, tying the modern-day Blazers record (until the Blazers break that record this year, that is.)

Southern Cal Slyme

Owner: Bob Sylvester, Sr.
2003 Record: 50-110 (4th place in the Higuera Division)
Franchise Record: 361-439 (17th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Kevin Brown, Josh Beckett, Mark Redman, Matt Clement, Joel Piniero and Claudio Vargas.
Bullpen: Octavio Dotel, Jose Contreras, Chad Bradford, Danys Baez, Arthur Rhodes, Mike Remlinger, Paul Shuey, Jose Valverde, Claudio Vargas and Pedro Feliciano.
Projected Lineup: Luis Castillo, Edgar Renteria, Dmitri Young, Edgar Martinez/Travis Lee, Mike Lieberthal, Juan Encarnacion/Raul Ibanez, Reed Johnson and Shea Hillenbrand.

Strengths: The best pitching staff in the Eck League, with a bona-fide ace backed by four above-average horses.  The Slyme bullpen has more arms than a mutated octopus, and the lineup doesn't have one guaranteed out-maker among the starting eight.  The leadoff combo of Castillo and Renteria evokes fond memories of the Stewart/Veras combo at the top of the '99 Cowtippers's lineup.

Weaknesses: I suppose you could point to the defense, where the ranges around the horn will be Pr (Martinez), Fr (Walker), Av (Renteria) and Fr (Hillenbrand.)  With the league's most groundball-inducingest pitcher heading this staff, that might mean a few extra points tagged on to Brown's ERA.  But then again, if you tag on a few extra points to Brown's ERA, it would still barely reach 3.00.  Hey - it's not easy coming up with weaknesses for every team!

Outlook: The Slyme aren't going to effortlessly cruise into the post-season by dominating the competition ala the Ridgebacks of '02.  Nevertheless, this is a very good team, and they will only get better through trading during the season.  After finishing with the worst record in the league two years in a row, the benefit of having the first pick in every round of the draft for two years running is paying dividends.  Billy Baseball: take note.

Prediction: 1st place and the EL title.  Bob Sylvester returns to the BDBL World Series for the first time since '99, where his World Series opponent is the team he should have faced back in '99: the Salem Cowtippers.  The '04 Series goes seven games (as all BDBL Series do), and old-time Zoots nemesis Kevin Brown brings home the trophy by shutting out the Salem offense in Game Seven, earning the World Series MVP.

South Carolina Sea Cats

Owner: Tony DeCastro
2003 Record: 63-97 (3rd place)
Franchise Record: 356-444 (20th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Andy Pettitte, Tom Glavine, Brian Lawrence, Wade Miller and Nate Cornholio.
Bullpen: Rafael Soriano, Troy Percival, Oscal Villareal, Kenny Wunsch and Juan Rincon.
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes/Mike Bordick, Hank Blalock, Tim Salmon, Mike Piazza/Matthew LeCroy, Andruw Jones, Nick Johnson/Josh Phelps, D'Angelo Jimenez/Dave Berg and Kevin Mench/Gabe Kapler. 

Strengths: An impressive lineup, particularly against righties.  Soriano is a stud in the bullpen, and has the benefit of a deep and talented set-up staff.

Weaknesses: Aside from Pettitte, the starting rotation may have to get used to the phrase, "Thank you, sir, may I have another?"  These guys are going to get spanked more often than a stripper on the Howard Stern Show.

Outlook: The Sea Cats should be competitive this year, but they just don't look like a championship-caliber club.  (But then again, neither do the Los Altos Undertakers in any given year.)  Unless someone has a Lieberesque type of season, there likely won't be any MVP or Cy Young candidates from the Sea Cats on this year's ballot.  If the 'Cats decide to wave the white flag, there isn't a lot of high-return trade bait here other than free agent-to-be Pettitte.  Even if Pettitte is dealt, the Sea Cats should still win enough games to avoid having to pay a Rule 7.16 penalty.

Prediction: 2nd place.  With another year of development, look for Blalock and Johnson to develop into a powerful (and low-wage) one/two combo of all-stars for the Sea Cats in '05.

Nashville Funkadelic

Owner: Steve Osborne
2003 Record: 82-78 (2nd place)
Franchise Record: 398-402 (12th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Roy Halladay, Kip Wells, Ramon Ortiz, Al Leiter and Kaz Ishii.
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Dan Plesac, John Bale and Aquilino Lopez.
Projected Lineup: Ichiro Suzuki, Roberto Alomar/Matt Kata, Gary Sheffield, Richie Sexson, Phil Nevin/Tike Redman, Ramon Vazquez, Jack Wilson/Juan Castro and Toby Hall/Shawn Wooten.

Strengths: Arguably, Halladay is not only the best starting pitcher in the Eck League, but in all of baseball.  That alone gives the Funkadelic a good chance to win every fourth day.  The starting lineup has all the things you look for in a winner: a speedy leadoff man, an MVP-caliber #3 hitter, a power-hitting cleanup man and a decent supporting cast.

Weaknesses: The Funk shelled out a ton of money to upgrade their pitching staff this winter.  $6.5 million was handed to Leiter, who has compiled a 4.63 ERA over his past four BDBL seasons.  His MLB ERA during that time was over a full run lower (3.57).  $9 million was given to Kip Wells, whose BDBL ERA last season (5.28) was well over a run and a half higher than his MLB ERA (3.59).  Ortiz sported an MLB ERA of 5.20 last season, and Ishii averaged a whopping 6.2 walks per nine.  Maybe these guys have all had bad luck, or maybe the game just hates them.  Given that the Mothership Connection is one of the best home run hitting parks in the BDBL, I would expect all of these guys to struggle a bit this year.  The bullpen lacks both a closer and depth, and the bottom-third of the lineup is filled with banjo-hitting glove men.

Outlook: With a pitching staff like this, the Funk are going to have to score 1,000 runs to win 85 games.  I don't think this lineup is capable of doing that.  If this team acquires a few arms for the bullpen and a reliable #2 starter, they could be in the hunt for the wild card.  But if they drop out of contention, Halladay (a free agent after this season) will become the most sought-after trade bait in BDBL history since...well, Roy Halladay.

Prediction: 3rd place.  With Chicago's glaring need for a #2 pitcher and their overflowing bounty of farm talent, they seem to be the perfect fit if/when Halladay is once again placed on the trading block.

Wapakoneta Hippos

Owner: Bobby Sylvester, Jr.
2003 Record: 90-70 (1st place)
Franchise Record: 394-406 (13th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Steve Trachsel, Jeff Suppan, John Lackey, Mike Maroth and Kris Benson/Joaquin Benoit.
Bullpen: Eddie Guardado, Mike Timlin, Ben Weber, Felix Rodriguez, Tommy Phelps, Mike Gallo and Felix Heredia.
Projected Lineup: Placido Polanco, Jolbert Cabrera/Juan Uribe, Albert Pujols, Jason Giambi, Shawn Green, Todd Walker/Carlos Febles, Carl Crawford/Dave Roberts and Doug Mirabelli/Mike Matheny.

Strengths: Albert Pujols: the one-man franchise.  There is a possibility that Pujols may come close to breaking Barry Bonds's BDBL record for intentional walks this season.  There is simply no reason to pitch to him, especially with a lefty on the mound.  The Wapakoneta bullpen is another team strength, fronted by both a lefty-killer and a righty-killer.

Weaknesses: If the Wapakoneta starting rotation were a contestant on "American Idol", Simon Cowell would literally poop on it.  Last year's division-winning Hippos rotation was abysmal as well, but no one noticed because of the insane numbers that Jon Lieber posted.  Unfortunately for Hippos fans, Lieber doesn't live here anymore.  It's a good thing the Hippos's bullpen is so deep, because they're going to see a lot of playing time this season.  The lineup surrounding Pujols is fair against righties, but atrocious against lefties.  And the bottom-third of the lineup is among the worst in the league.

Outlook: The Hippos had more disposable money than Donald Trump this winter, and they did the best they could with it.  Instead of blowing it all on one or two players, they spread it around and signed players like Giambi, Green, Weber and Polanco, who actually might be worth their salaries in 2005.  Wapakoneta is riding a three-year trend of increasing wins, but that will come to an end in '04.  With comeback seasons from Giambi and Green, and the emergence of Kaz Matsui, the Hippos have a chance to be contenders a year from now.  I still say they would have been better off trading Pujols for Edwin Jackson, Austin Kearns and Jeremy Reed, but that's just one man's humble opinion...

Prediction: 4th place.  Since the inaugural draft, the #1 slot in the draft has gone to either a Romaniello or a Sylvester.  Will that trend continue in 2004?  Bobby will face some tough competition, but I think he'll come up just short.

Chicago Black Sox

Owner: John Gill
2003 Record: 74-86 (3rd place)
Franchise Record: 421-379 (9th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Mark Prior, Ben Sheets, Brad Penny, Brett Myers and Darren Oliver.
Bullpen: Rheal Cormier, Ugueth Urbina, Matt Herges, Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Sauerbeck and Kerry Ligtenberg.
Projected Lineup: Jason Kendall, Nomar Garciaparra, Vernon Wells, Vladimir Guerrero, Chipper Jones, Aubrey Huff, Aramis Ramirez and Ronnie Belliard.

Strengths: Earlier this winter, John Gill stated that his goal this off-season was to assemble an offense similar to his EL-winning offense of 2000.  Though I'd rank the 2000 Black Sox offense higher than the current version, I think the Black Sox have assembled perhaps the best lineup in the BDBL this season.  The only weak spot in the starting eight is Belliard, and he crushes lefties.  The bullpen is very good, with Cormier serving as a dominant closer.  And Prior, of course, is an ace and a half.

Weaknesses: Coming into this winter, the Chicago rotation consisted of Prior, Josh Beckett and Carlos Zambrano - three of the brightest young pitching stars in all of baseball.  Beckett was dealt for more offense, and Zambrano was traded for prospects, leaving the Black Sox with an ace and a collection of question marks.

Outlook: You may remember that the downfall of the 2000 Black Sox was its starting pitching.  Up three games to none in a best-of-seven series, Chicago couldn't put it away because they didn't have a stopper in their rotation.  This year, the Black Sox have that stopper.  But is one stopper enough?  We'll find out in November.

Prediction: 1st place.  The Black Sox cruise into the ELCS, but run into a brick wall by the name of the SoCal Slyme.  Though they sacrificed a few of their top prospects to get to The Show, the Black Sox fall just short.

Cleveland Rocks

Owner: Mike Stein
2003 Record: 89-71 (2nd place)
Franchise Record: 427-373 (8th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Jason Schmidt, Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar, Jake Westbrook, Jason Johnson and Jason Simontacchi.
Bullpen: Brendan Donnelly, Kent Mercker, Rafael Betancourt, Kiko Calero, Kevin Correia, Michael Neu, Kaz Sasaki, Chris Capuano, Wil Ledezma and Chad Fox.
Projected Lineup: Mark Grudzielanek, Brad Wilkerson, Frank Thomas, Cliff Floyd, Kevin Millar/Aaron Guiel, Joe Crede, Alex Gonzalez and Josh Bard.

Strengths: Two very expensive aces at the top of the rotation, and the world's largest collection of 30-inning relief pitchers.  The Rocks paid $28 million for their two aces - the most expensive teammates in league history - and there is no reason to suspect they won't get their money's worth out of them (at least, in terms of this season.)  As usual, Mike Stein filled his farm club with relievers last year, giving this year's club a vast collection of short-usage arms that rivals the traditional Undertakers's bullpen.  The prospect of watching Mike Stein trot out to the mound after every batter, with beer in hand, following the sixth inning of each and every game this season, makes me thankful to be a member of the Ozzie League.

Weaknesses: The lineup against righties is decent, but it won't cause any sleepless nights in the Eck League.  The team's best hitter against righties, Floyd, is only available for half a season.  The back end of the rotation, beyond the $28 million duo, is a bit weak, and with the new four-game series schedule, Cleveland will be forced to pitch guys like Westbrook or Simontacchi against the best teams in the league.

Outlook: The #1 strength of the Cleveland Rocks always has been, and probably always will be, the unwavering optimism of their fearless leader, Mike Stein.  With Stein, the (beer) glass is always two-thirds full.  The Rocks seem to be in the thick of the pennant race every year.  In fact, they and the Kansas Law Dogs are the only two Eck League teams that have yet to lose 85 games in a season.  But unlike the 'Dogs, the Rocks have yet to play November baseball.  Cleveland will face yet another tough challenge this season, and while I can't guarantee they won't win this division, I can guarantee they won't be waving the white flag at any time this season.

Prediction: 2nd place.  Yes, the Rocks come up just short of the post-season...again.  They give the Ridgebacks a run for their money in the wild card race, but can't keep up with the Evil Emperor at the trading table.

Akron Ryche

Owner: D.J. Shepard
2003 Record: 108-52 (1st place)
Franchise Record: 443-357 (5th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Pedro Martinez, Scot Shields, Jason "Who" Davis, Paul Wilson and Oliver Perez/Eric DuBose.
Bullpen: David Riske, Ron Mahay, Tom Martin, Steve Reed and Tim Spooneybarger.
Projected Lineup: Kenny Lofton/Brian Jordan, Junior Spivey/Rob Mackowiak, Scott Rolen, Richard Hidalgo, Geoff Jenkins, Mike Sweeney/Russ Branyan, Jason Varitek and Jhonny Peralta/Chone Figgins.

Strengths: Pedro Martinez and a very strong lineup from one to seven.   Pedro is as good as ever, and is a lock to be on the EL Cy Young award ballot at the end of the year.  Last year, he held righties to a sub-500 OPS, which should come in handy against both the Rocks and Black Sox.  The Akron lineup is strong against both righties and lefties, and deep enough that I've placed an all-star catcher in the #7 hole in my projected lineup.

Weaknesses: Looking at this pitching staff, it is hard to believe these are the Akron Ryche.   We've become so used to seeing dominant pitching coming out of Akron, this year's version looks like a practical joke.  Pedro is good for about 29 starts this year, and Shields is good for about 23.  That leaves 108 starts spread out between the likes of Davis, Wilson, Perez and DuBose.  A far cry from the glory days of Akron past.  Had it not been for trades, Akron's 2004 rotation would consist of Pedro, Mark Prior, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder.  Instead, the Ryche are left with Pedro, Rolen, Jenkins and fond memories of Magglio Ordonez's one year Akron stint.

Outlook: The Ryche have won three Hrbek Division titles in a row, but that streak looks like it is about to come to an end. This team simply doesn't have the pitching to compete in this tough division.  If the Ryche do drop out of the race early, Sweeney and Varitek will become hot commodities on the trade market.  And don't be surprised if Pedro is dealt this year as well.  You heard it here first.

Prediction: 3rd place.  My psychic powers tell me that Pedro will be traded to an evil Sith.  I just can't see which one it is...

Atlanta Fire Ants

Owner: Gene Patterson
2003 Record: 69-91 (4th place)
Franchise Record: 356-444 (20th place all-time)
Projected Rotation: Livan Hernandez, David Wells, Ted Lilly, Mark Hendrickson and R.A. Dickey.
Bullpen: Latroy Hawkins, Trey Hodges, Darren Holmes and Antonio Osuna.
Projected Lineup: Scott Podsednik, Bo Hart/Chris Stynes, Bobby Abreu, Vinny Castilla, Garrett Anderson, Paul Konerko, Eddie Perez/Paul Lo Duca and Alex S. Gonzalez.

Strengths: A passable front two in the starting rotation, a solid heart of the lineup, a great leadoff hitter and a great closer.

Weaknesses: The back of the rotation, the bottom half of the lineup and the rest of the bullpen.

Outlook: Gene Patterson has become legendary for his ability to ensnare himself into contract situations that appear to be inescapable, only to magically rid himself of the contract AND get a little something thrown in on top of it.  He is the Harry Houdini of the BDBL.  Before the season even began, Gene unloaded his worst contract: Luis Castillo's $7.5 million salary.  If the Fire Ants fall out of contention early, there is a ton of potential trade bait on this Atlanta roster.  If the BDBL's renowned escape artist can convert some of that trade bait into future value, the Fire Ants may finally be competitive some time in the near future.

Prediction: 4th place.