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Commish

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March 24 2004

2004 BDBL Farm Report

This is the fifth annual BDBL Farm Report, so by now, most of you know the drill.  But for you new guys, here is the lowdown:

The mission of the BDBL Farm Report is to measure the overall talent level of our BDBL farm systems, as determined by the reigning prospect gurus of today.  This year, those gurus include John Sickels, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, OnDeck Prospects, RotoWorld, MLB.com and our very own BDBL Prospects Survivor challenge.  The top prospect lists published by these experts are entered into a spreadsheet.  100 points are assigned to the top prospect on each list.  Then, 99 points are awarded to the #2 player, 98 points to the #3 player, and so on down the list.  All of the points are then tallied, and prospects are given an overall ranking, based upon this overall number of points.  Each BDBL team's point total is then summed, and the teams are assigned an overall ranking as well.

Because Sickels changed his format this year, and created two top-50 lists (one for hitters, another for pitchers), I have decided to double-count the prospects on his list.  In other words, both the #1 hitter and #1 pitcher, according to Sickels, will receive 100 points.  It may not be fair to those prospects not appearing on Sickels's lists, but we really don't care about those prospects anyway, right?

Of course, different publications have different philosophies when it comes to prospect evaluation, but the beauty of this exercise is that all of those philosophies are tossed into one big melting pot and stirred together with loving care by yours truly, producing an overall picture of each prospect's value, as viewed by the experts.

Note that some publications don't regard Japanese rookies like Kazuo Matsui as "prospects", so poor Kaz ranks far lower than he deserves.   Also note that no list other than our own Prospects Survivor includes amateur prospects, so the rankings below are solely - for the most part - a reflection of the pro prospects on a franchise's farm club.

Enough setup.  First, here are the raw numbers:

Team Total Pts 2004 Rank 2003 Rank 2002 Rank 2001 Rank 2000 Rank
VIL 3,271 1 11 18 18 8
CHI 3,037 2 5 1 8 12
SVC 2,611 3 18 15 5 13
KAN 2,518 4 9 17 11 4
STM 2,162 5 3 4 6 2
LAU 2,160 6 19 2 3 7
MAN 1,902 7 8 12 16 22
SAL 1,798 8 1 10 7 1
GLS 1,717 9 16 19 21 6
WAP 1,402 10 23 18 12 19
SCA 1,297 11 10 7 14 15
RAV 1,096 12 22 20 13 5
SCS 1,057 13 2 3 10 17
ATL 1,039 14 17 11 20 24
NMB 1,033 15 14 5 1 3
ALN 904 16 12 9 4 18
GIL 820 17 13 23 22 16
LIT 807 18 6 14 17 11
MAR 718 19 7 8 15 10
SYL 412 20 4 22 19 14
AKR 406 21 15 13 2 9
BCJ 240 22 20 21 23 21
NAS 237 23 24 6 9 23
CLE 55 24 21 24 24 20

And now, a team-by-team breakdown (with the overall ranking of each prospect in parentheses):

#1 Villanova Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Casey Kotchman (13), Jeremy Reed (15), Andy Marte (16), Dustin McGowan (18), Adam Wainwright (24), Jesse Crain (82), Brian Bruney (96), Ryan Madson (105), Chad Cordero (115), Justin Jones (130), Neil Cotts (132), Freddy Sanchez (148)
Unranked prospects: Ryan Doumit, Anthony Gwynn, Brian McCann, Chris Snyder, Chad Billingsley

In last year's BDBL Farm Report, I called the Villanova farm system "boring."  Well, that certainly isn't true anymore, is it?   Thanks to a series of deft maneuvers made during the rebuilding phase of this franchise over the past year and a half, the Mustangs farm club is now tops in the BDBL.   Marte, who is now drawing comparisons to Miguel Cabrera after a phenomenal year in High-A, was acquired during the infamous 14-player trade with the Allentown Ridgebacks during the 2003 pre-season.  Reed, who was ranked as the #2 prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus, came over in the legendary Brandon Webb trade this pre-season.   Kotchman was a steal, acquired this winter in exchange for Carlos Lee (among others.)  In all, the Mustangs have a whopping twelve ranked prospects on their 15-man farm club.  Now that is impressive.  Tony Chamra has done a phenomenal job rebuilding his team, and the Mustangs should be a lot of fun to watch over the coming years.

#2 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Prince Fielder (7), Bobby Crosby (17), Jeff Mathis (19), J.J. Hardy (28), Khalil Greene (32), Sergio Santos (63), Mike Jones (83), Chris Burke (106), Josh Hamilton (115)
Unranked prospects: Jose Castillo, Drew Henson, J.R. House, David Kelton, Andy LaRoche, John Mayberry, Jr., Adam Johnson

The Black Sox farm club has now ranked among the top ten four years in a row.  Despite the graduations of Josh Beckett and Mark Prior two years ago, and Victor Martinez, Hee Seop Choi and Jeremy Bonderman last year, the Black Sox farm system just keeps churning out more and more top-shelf talent.  The bulk of Chicago's current farm crop (Fielder, Crosby, Mathis, Greene and Jones) was acquired through trade over the past year.  And with Crosby, Hardy and Greene at shortstop, and Martinez and Mathis behind the plate, the Black Sox certainly have enough depth to use as trade bait, should they decide to shift gears and take down the white flag.

#3 Silicon Valley CyberSox
Ranked prospects: Chin-Hui Tsao (23), Dallas McPherson (26), John VanBenschoten (34), Jeremy Hermida (37), Kris Honel (47), Jose Lopez (56), Jeremy Guthrie (64), Jayson Nix (66), Aaron Hill (93)
Unranked prospects: John Ford-Griffin, David Murphy, Omar Quintanilla, Ben Hendrickson, Rob Henkel, Brian Sanches, Jorge Vasquez

Silicon Valley earns the "Most Improved Farm System" award for 2004, as they jumped 15 places in the rankings.  Like the Mustangs and Black Sox, the CyberSox acquired most of their best prospects through trade.  Every ranked prospect on the CyberSox farm, with the exceptions of Hermida (Silicon Valley's #1 pick in this year's farm draft) and Aaron Hill (a Chapter Four free agent pick-up last year) was acquired via trade.   There is a lot of college-bred talent here, including VanBenschoten, Guthrie, Hill, Ford-Griffin, Murphy and Quintanilla, giving the impression that Greg Newgard has bought into the "Moneyball" philosophy that Baseball America despises with a passion.  The big question for this franchise is: will trading Casey Kotchman give Newgard the same pangs of remorse felt by Phil Geisel after his trade of Lance Berkman years ago?

#4 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Greg Miller (12), David Wright (20), Gavin Floyd (21), Scott Hairston (25), David DeJesus (49), Dan Meyer (88)
Unranked prospects: Shane Costa, Byron Gettis, Chris Shelton, Brad Snyder, Ryan Sweeney, Brandon Wood, Jesse Floyd, Kaz Tadano, Jamie Vermilyea

Despite trading Bobby Crosby (17), Dallas McPherson (26), Taylor Buchholz (54), Jose Lopez (56), Ryan Madson (105), Matt Moses (146) and John Ford-Griffin (N/R) last year in a futile attempt to defeat the Empire, the Law Dogs farm system is still in great shape.  How Greg Miller lasted until the Chapter Five free agent deadline last year is a mystery, though his future now rests upon the health of his shoulder.  Kansas not only acquired Miller as a free agent that chapter, but DeJesus as well.  Chris Luhning has done an outstanding job in the Farm Draft the past two years, nabbing Ford-Griffin, Floyd and Wright in the 2002 draft, and Lopez, Madson, McPherson and Buchholz in '03.  There seems to be an enormous difference of opinion concerning Kansas's three top prospects.  OnDeck ranks Miller as the #2 prospect in baseball, and MLB.com ranks him #3, but Baseball Prospectus has him ranked all the way down at #33 (due mostly to concerns over Miller's shoulder.)   Wright is ranked #5 by Baseball Prospectus, and #9 by Sickels, but #28, #29 and #32 by OnDeck, MLB.com and RotoWorld, respectively.  Floyd is ranked #9 by Sickels, but #49 by Baseball Prospectus.  Of Kansas's unranked prospects, expect Wood and Vermilyea to appear somewhere among the rankings next year.

#5 Stamford Zoots
Ranked prospects: Joe Mauer (1), Delmon Young (10), Clint Nageotte (29), Shin-Soo Choo (77), Ian Stewart (79), Josh Banks (109), Ian Oquendo/Snell (114), Jeff Niemann (123)
Unranked prospects: Ryan Braun, Brendan Harris, Connor Jackson, Vince Sinisi, Brian Snyder, Rett Johnson, Tim Stauffer

In the five years that I have been doing this study, Mauer is the first prospect ever to be ranked #1 unanimously by every one of our experts.   Just one year after he was inexplicably acquired by the Zoots in exchange for Juan Cruz, Mauer has achieved a ranking that is higher than Cruz was ever ranked by any publication.  Despite the fact that he has just 48 professional at-bats (all in the Arizona Fall League), Young was ranked as high as #3 by Baseball America.  OnDeck Baseball and MLB.com also ranked Young in the top 10.   Only Baseball Prospectus (at #31) ranked Young outside of the top 20.   Nageotte rose in the overall rankings from #40 to #29 after another great year.   Choo, however, dropped from #32 to #77.  Next year, look for Sinisi, Niemann and possibly Stauffer (depending on the health of his shoulder) to join the rank-and-file.

#6 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Rickie Weeks (5), Alexis Rios (9), Kyle Sleeth (53), Gabe Gross (58), David Bush (69), Ryan Harvey (84), Jason Lane (101), J.J. Davis (120), Wade Townsend (120), Chris Lubanski (135)
Unranked prospects: Matt Bush, Micah Owings, Justin Upton, Paul Maholm, Justin Orenduff, Jeremy Sowers, Brad Sullivan, Jared Weaver

Once upon a time, allocating a farm roster spot to a player that has yet to play a single professional game was a true rarity.  Prior to 2002, I believe the only amateur player ever to inhabit any BDBL roster was Mark Teixeira.   That all changed when the league expanded farm rosters to 15 players.  Today, not only is nearly every player on the pre-season College All-American list spoken for, but a number of players on the Second Team and Third Team are already members of BDBL farm clubs as well.  Yet despite the fierce competition for amateur talent that exists today, the Undertakers literally dominated the first round of the MLB amateur draft last season, and will likely do so again in 2004.  Of the first six picks made in the first round last year, Los Altos owned five of them.  This year, Townsend, Weaver, Sowers, Orenduff, Owings and Bush are heavily favored to be first-rounders.  In 2005, Upton is allegedly favored to be among the first players selected.  Despite the fact that the Undertakers have allocated 13 of their 15 farm slots to players that have less than a year of professional experience, the Los Altos farm still ranks among the top six in the BDBL.  That is truly amazing.

#7 Manchester Irish Rebels
Ranked prospects: Scott Kazmir (6), Cole Hamels (8), Adam Loewen (43), Jeff Francis (71), Matt Cain (98), Joe Borchard (112), Clint Everts (131), Nick Markakis (153), Joey Gathright (154)
Unranked prospects: Deric Barton, Adam Donachie, John McCurdy, Carlos Quentin, Jarrod Saltalamaccia, Jason Neighborgall, Joe Saunders

After five years, Jim Doyle's strategy of running his finger down the list of first-rounders and selecting the first free agent available seems to be paying huge dividends.  The Irish Rebels are the only franchise in the BDBL that has improved their ranking in this study in each of the past four years (from 22nd to 16th to 12th to 8th to 7th.)  Kazmir, Hamels and Francis are three of the best left-handed pitching prospects in baseball (and Loewen was among the best as well, before his Ankiel-like meltdown this spring.)  If even one of those four pans out (which is about what the odds are), it would be an enormous boost for this franchise.   Given his extremely low pitch count limits, combined with the watchful eye of new Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson, I'd bet the house on Kazmir being the one who will eventually become the minimum-wage #1 starter for the 2007 Irish Rebels.

#8 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: B.J. Upton (2), Edwin Jackson (3), Chris Snelling (70), Jimmy Gobble (86), Alberto Callaspo (89), Brent Clevlen (92), Aaron Baldiris (117), Ramon Nivar (151)
Unranked prospects: Jeremy Brown, Jeff Clement, Jeremy Cleveland, Steven Doetsch, Seung-Yeop Lee, Eddy Martinez-Esteve, Kendry Morales, Lou Palmisano, Danny Putnam, Kameron Loe, Matt Miller

The Cowtippers own two of the top three prospects in baseball, but there is a huge drop-off after that.  The reason, of course, is that Salem has a nasty habit of trading away most of their best prospects.  In the past seven months alone, Salem has dealt seven top-100 prospects: Casey Kotchman (13), Jeremy Reed (15), Kaz Matsui (40), Blake Hawksworth (46), Manny Parra (59), Joel Hanrahan (65) and Joel Zumaya (81).  Add those points back into Salem's total and the Cowtippers would be sitting way, way on top of this list.  But sacrifices had to be made for the greater good, and a #8 ranking will have to suffice for now.  Next year, expect Callaspo, Clevlen and Baldiris to rank much higher, and expect Brown and Palmisano (and hopefully Morales) to join the rankings.

#9 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Justin Morneau (11), Bobby Jenks (35), Angel Guzman (45), John Maine (55), Adam LaRoche (85), Boof Bonser (111), Dustin Moseley (123), Todd Wellemeyer (141)
Unranked prospects: Jason DuBois, Ross Gload, Joel Guzman, Lance Niekro, Stephen Smitherman, Jayson Werth, Matt Belisle, Shane Loux, Jae-Kuk Ryu

The Sphinx join the top ten for the first time since the Zigmund Era.  To give you an idea of how long ago that was, the four ranked prospects this team owned back then were Pat Burrell, Alfonso Soriano, Luis Rivera and George Lombard.  Morneau should graduate to the big club this year, leaving behind a collection of rather boring players on the Sphinx farm club.  In fact, if the Villanova Mustangs farm was "boring" last year, then this year's Sphinx farm is practically coma-inducing.  Unless Jenks miraculously sobers up and figures out how to throw strikes, I don't see any potential impact players on this farm.

#10 Wapakoneta Hippos
Ranked prospects: James Loney (39), Kaz Matsui (40), Jason Bay (47), Jeff Allison (60), Joel Hanrahan (65), Joel Zumaya (81), Matt Peterson (151)
Unranked prospects: Tyler Davidson, Mike Jacobs, Dustin Pedroia, Abe Alvarez, Jon Connolly, Felix Diaz, Ubaldo Jimenez, Blair Johnson, Andrew Lerew, Elizardo Ramirez

Though the Hippos don't have any top-35 prospects, Matsui would certainly rank among the top 20 if everyone were playing by the same rules.  Only Baseball America (#7), Baseball Prospectus (#10), OnDeck (#16) and the BDBL (an inexplicable #36) included Matsui in their rankings.  Based solely on nine professional innings and a career of dominating New England high school hitters wielding wooden bats, Allison ranked #22, #44 and #51 by OnDeck, Baseball America and RotoWorld, respectively.  It will be interesting to see where he ranks next year, after a full year of pro ball.  The most interesting part about the Hippos farm, of course, is the list of prospects they let get away.  Just last year alone, the Hippos traded away two top-ten prospects (Joe Mauer, the #1 prospect in baseball, and Prince Fielder, #7) and released another (Edwin Jackson, #3).  Had they kept those guys around, not only would they have an outstanding future, but they would rank first in this year's Farm Report.

#11 Southern Cal Slyme
Ranked players: Dioner Navarro (38), Blake Hawksworth (46), Hanley Ramirez (52), Jason Stokes (61), Felix Pie (67), Chad Tracy (86), Jon Rauch (144)
Unranked players: Chin-Feng Chen, Jeff Larish, Nick Adenhart, Ezequiel Astacio, Phil Humber, Jimmy Journell, Chris Oxspring, Maels Rodriguez

Despite the graduation of last year's #1 prospect, Jose Contreras, and the collapses of Ramirez, Joe Thurston, Bobby Basham, Jimmy Journell and Drew Henson, the Slyme farm club is holding steady in the middle of the rankings on the strength of several new additions.  The team's new top prospect, Navarro, was a fourth-round pick by the Slyme in the 2003 farm draft.  Hawksworth and Pie were added during last year's fire sale, and Stokes was acquired in the Josh Beckett deal this past winter.  Larish, Adenhart and Humber are all likely to be chosen in the first round of this June's MLB amateur draft.

#12 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked players: Ervin Santana (22), Franklin Gutierrez (42), Russ Adams (76), Erick Aybar (120), Fausto Carmona (140), Nick Swisher (143), Juan Dominguez (147), Francisco Rosario (150)
Unranked players: Vito Chiarvalloti, Ruben Gotay, Jong-Soo Shim, Jorge de la Rosa, Wes Littleton

The disciples of John Benson have assembled a league-average farm club this year, according to our expert panel of judges.  Santana gives this franchise their first top-25 prospect since Joe Crede (who ranked #22 in 2001).   As was the case in the BDBL, there was a significant difference of opinion about where Gutierrez belongs in the rankings.  Baseball Prospectus ranked Gutierrez as high as #22, while OnDeck, MLB.com and BBA all had him ranked between #31 and #43.   RotoWorld ranked him all the way down at #65, and Sickels didn't even include Gutierrez among his top 50 hitters list.  Chiarvalloti posted some intriguing numbers, but as a 23-year-old in low-A ball.  Of all the unranked prospects, Shim is the most intriguing.  He will be a free agent after this season, and if he can find an American team that is willing to show some faith in Korean ballplayers (something Seung-Yeop Lee was unable to find this winter), he could be a useful player for the Infidels as early as 2006.

#13 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked players: Josh Barfield (27), Taylor Buchholz (54), Andy Sisco (56), Justin Huber (71), Lastings Milledge (149), Dave Krynzel (156)
Unranked players: Jason Bourgeois, Tag Bozied, Jason Cooper, Dan Johnson, Matt Murton, Scott Baker, Travis Foley, Nick Pesco, Rafael Rodriguez

The Sea Cats owned the #2 farm system in the BDBL last season, but have dropped 11 spots in the ranking thanks to the graduations of Jose Reyes and Rafael Soriano, and the trade of Jason Stokes.  The year before last, South Carolina graduated Hank Blalock, Nick Johnson, Matthew LeCroy, Kevin Mench, Josh Phelps and Kirk Saarloos from their farm club.  Not a bad two year haul if you ask me.   Barfield was ranked no lower than #32 by any of our panel of experts, though OnDeck mysteriously excluded him from their top 50.  Over the next year, Milledge, Huber and Sisco have a good chance of moving up in the ranking, and Cooper, Murton and Baker should join the ranking next year as well, allowing the Sea Cats farm to rejoin the top ten.

#14 Atlanta Fire Ants
Ranked prospects: Guillermo Quiroz (33), Jeff Francouer (41), Brandon Claussen (71), Ricky Nolasco (112), Delwyn Young (119), Jason Arnold (137), Bubba Nelson (139), Bryan Bullington (141)
Unranked prospects: Wes Bankston, Xavier Paul, Bronson Sardinha, Kyle Davies, Alex Graman, Rhett Parrot

Last year, I predicted the Fire Ants would achieve their best ranking ever in the BDBL Farm Report.  Though they improved by three places in the ranking, their 14th-place showing is still a bit lower than their all-time-high 11th-place ranking in 2002.  Since last year, the Fire Ants have added a top-40 prospect in Quiroz through a pre-season trade, and both Francouer and Claussen have risen at least 45 points in the overall ranking.  The problem is that both Arnold (ranked #38 last year) and Bullington (#94) took huge steps backward over the past year, as they each saw their fastballs drop into the mid-80's for mysterious reasons.  If both pitchers bounce back this year, and if Young, Paul and Bankston continue to develop as expected, the Fire Ants may yet beat their all-time best ranking.

#15 New Milford Blazers
Ranked prospects: Zach Greinke (4), Denny Bautista (44), Dustin Nippert (96)
Unranked prospects: Kenny Kelly, Val Pascucci, Wes Whisler, Mike Gosling, Jeremy Hill, Chris Lambert, Akinori Otsuka, Mark Phillips, Duaner Sanchez, Joe Valentine, Chris Young

Once the cream of the BDBL farm crop, the Blazers have fallen to the middle of the pack the past two years, mostly because the Blazers haven't been able to get the same value through trading that they have in the past.  From 2000-2002, when New Milford ranked #3, #1 and #5 in this study, the Blazers farm consisted of top-shelf talent, all acquired through trade: Corey Patterson, C.C. Sabathia, Austin Kearns, Alfonso Soriano, Mike Cuddyer and Sean Burroughs.  Since then, however, the only prospects the Blazers have acquired through trade have been Tike Redman, Duaner Sanchez, Kevin Cash and Wes Whisler.  Without trading, the Blazers farm has relied upon the drafting and free agent acquisition skills of Billy Romaniello and his staff.  Romaniello stole Greinke (who could very well be the best Blazers pitcher since Randy Johnson) in the second round of the 2003 farm draft, and Nippert in the seventh round that same year.  This year, the Blazers selected Akinori Otsuka with their one and only farm pick.  Though he was not ranked by any publication this year, I'd place even money on Otsuka posting a higher VORP this year than his more heralded Japanese counterpart, Kaz Matsui.  Other than Otsuka, however, no unranked prospect on this roster is a lock to join these rankings next year.  And once Greinke is promoted to the big league roster (probably by mid-season), the New Milford farm club could be the worst in franchise history.

#16 Allentown Ridgebacks
Ranked prospects: Merkin Valdez (36), Travis Blackley (51), Felix Hernandez (68), Chad Gaudin (93), Edwin Encarnacion (103), Jake Dittler (156), Kelly Johnson (158)
Unranked prospects: Brian Anderson, Willy Aybar, Estee Harris, Kody Kirkland, Nate Schierholtz, Matt Whitney, Ronald Bay

The Ridgebacks graduated both of their top 10 prospects (Jesse Floppert and Rocco Ballssmelli) last year, leaving this year's edition with a collection of dubious arms and suspect bats.  Of all the Ridgebacks prospects, Hernandez has generated the most hype (mostly by Tom himself.)  Of the six experts on our panel, only two ranked Hernandez among the top prospects in the game (#30 by Sickels and #30 by Baseball America.)  In fact, none of the Allentown prospects were ranked by all seven of this year's experts.  Of the unranked prospects, I can't see any of them joining the ranks next season (though I've occasionally been wrong before.)

#17 Gillette Swamp Rats
Ranked prospects: Joe Blanton (30), Adrian Gonzalez (61), Chadd Blasko (90), J.D. Durbin (91), Erik Bedard (125)
Unranked prospects: Wladimir Balentin, Eric Duncan, Luis Soto, Greg Aquino, Matt Blank, Vinnie Chulk, Adrian Hernandez, Mario Ramos, Dennis Sarfate, Steven Shell, Matt Smith

Once among the top prospects in the game, poor Adrian Gonzalez's career has been struck by The Curse.  You know the one.  It is the same curse that has led to the downfalls of Brandon Phillips, Francis Beltran, Wes Whisler, Kevin Cash, Juan Cruz, Adam Hyzdu, Jayson Werth, Corky Miller, Eric Byrnes, Garrett Atkins, Josh Fogg, Mike Jones, Nate Cornejo, Wascar Serrano, Nick Johnson, D'Angelo Jiminez, Matt Ginter, Onan Masaoka, Alex Graman, Ruben Mateo, Angel Pena, Gookie Dawkins, Jose Rosado and Daryle Ward.  Despite playing in a pitcher-friendly park, the Swamp Rats franchise has assembled a top-seven pitching staff (in terms of OL ERA) only once in the past five years.  The "Killer Bla's", Blanton and Blasko, however, give this franchise some hope for the future.  The unranked prospects list includes three high-risk/high-upside players in Balentin, Duncan and Soto.  All three could be ranked at this time next year.  All three are equally likely to be playing in the Mexican League three years from now.

#18 Litchfield Lightning
Ranked prospects: Grady Sizemore (14), Michael Aubrey (80), Kevin Youkilis (110), Kelly Shoppach (136), Seung Song (154)
Unranked prospects: Jamie D'Antona, Rontrez Johnson, Dominic Rich, David Aardsma, Kenny Baugh, Fernando Cabrera, Brett Evert, Brad Thomas

The Lightning acquired their top two prospects from the Cowtippers in the highly-criticized Steve Karsay trade of 2002.  Last year, with my advice, the Lightning dealt Preston Wilson to the Rocks in exchange for their #3 prospect, Youkilis.  Their #4 and #5 prospects, Shoppach and Song, were both drafted by me in the 2003 Farm Draft.  Do you sense a pattern here?  The Lightning farm provides a telling reflection of Phil Geisel's recent trading decisions.  The unranked Aardsma was acquired in the pre-season trade that brought Jim Edmonds and his $11.5 million salary to Litchfield (a trade that looks worse and worse with each passing day.)  That trade cost the Lightning their #1 prospect from last season, Jerome Williams (ranked #15 overall), in addition to Carlos Baerga and several millions of dollars.  Last year, the Lightning were offered several players, including #2 prospect B.J. Upton, in exchange for Bartolo Colon, but elected to hold onto their $10 pitcher instead.  Arthur Rhodes was another highly-sought-after commodity on the Lightning roster last year.  After rejecting several offers involving several top-100 prospects (including Blake Hawksworth, Manny Parra, Joel Zumaya and Joel Hanrahan), Litchfield finally traded Rhodes in exchange for unranked prospect Cabrera.  Currently, there are several players occupying precious slots on the Litchfield farm that have no business being there.  Unless the Lightning management puts a little more effort into their farm system, and unless Phil Geisel can figure out who (in the words of Bill O'Reilly) is looking out for him - and more importantly, who isn't - the Lightning may never see November baseball ever again.

#19 Marlboro Hammerheads
Ranked prospects: Ryan Wagner (30), Matt Riley (78), Bobby Brownlie (93), Brad Nelson (99), Scott Olsen (134)
Unranked prospects: John Buck, Victor Diaz, Greg Golson, Ryan Howard, Justin Leone, Termel Sledge, Colt Griffin, Josh Karp, Ben Kozlowski

The Hammerheads dropped a dozen points in the rankings this year, due mostly to the pre-season trades of Bobby Crosby (#17) and Jeff Mathis (#19).  Given that they received a $100,000 ace in exchange for those two, however, it seems like a fair sacrifice.  College relievers don't have a stellar track record in the big leagues (Matt Anderson, anyone?), but Wagner is as good a bet as any to break that stereotype.  Riley and Brownlie both have a lot to prove after falling from great heights of notoriety and hype.  Of the unranked prospects, none figure to become impact players, though Sledge (whose absence from all seven prospect lists is curious, given the numbers he posted last year) has a good chance of becoming the 2004 version of Jody Gerut.

#20 Sylmar Padawans
Ranked prospects: Sean Burnett (50), Macay McBride (71), Michael Restovich (138)
Unranked prospects: Tony Alvarez, Todd Linden, Todd Meyer, Scott Moore, Carlos Sosa, Denard Span, Francis Beltran, Dewon Brazelton, Greg Bruso, Edgar Gonzalez, Josh Hancock, Brandon League, Vince Perkins, Royce Ring, Adriano Rosario

No team fell further in the rankings this year than the Padawans.  Sylmar's farm was ranked #4 last year, but with the graduation of K-Rod and the collapses by Brazelton, Restovich and Linden, the Sylmar farm now finds itself all the way down at #20.  When you look at Sylmar's farm from a year ago, the one thing that leaps out at you is the fact that this farm system has hardly changed at all.  Since last year, the only prospects that have been added to the Sylmar farm are McBride, Beltran, Perkins and Rosario - hardly a bumper crop of talent.  Prospect evaluation is a very fluid, rapidly-changing exercise.  Today's best prospects often become tomorrow's biggest flops.  And yesterday's anonymous nobodies often become today's brightest stars.  The teams that typically assemble the best farm systems are the ones that keep on top of current events and are willing to juggle those 15 farm slots to accommodate the best prospects available, using the latest and greatest information at hand.  When you play in the same division as the Undertakers, you'd better know your stuff when it comes to the farm, or you'll soon find you've dug yourself a hole from which escape is impossible.

#21 Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Manny Parra (59), Francisco Cruceta (99), Justin Verlander (125), Cody Ross (125), Jonny Gomes (133)
Unranked prospects: Stephen Drew, Brad Hawpe, Jason Kubel, Mitch Maier, Val Majewski, Nate McLouth, Nate Spears, Jhonathan Figueroa, Ryan Hannaman, Aaron Laffey, Michael Megrew, Cory Stewart

What on earth has happened to the Akron Ryche farm?  Since they were ranked #2 in this study back in 2001, the Ryche have steadily declined to #13, #15 and now #21.  Both last year's and this year's rankings, however, are a little misleading.  Last year, the Ryche traded Rich Harden, Cliff Lee, Brad Lidge, Kris Honel and Ben Broussard just before the Farm Report was published.  Had the report been published just six weeks earlier, Akron would have ranked #2.  This year, the rankings don't include Drew, who is considered to be the top college hitter in the '04 draft, and Verlander, considered to be among the top five college pitchers.  By this time next year, assuming the Ryche hold onto these players, Parra, Drew and Verlander could all easily rank among the top 50 prospects in the game.

#22 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Larry Broadway (101), Jason Young (103), Corey Hart (107), John Danks (144), Matt Moses (146)
Unranked prospects: Koyie Hill, Josh Willingham, Danny Borrell, Ryan Dittfurth, Chris Gruler, Jason Hirsch, Ryo Kumagai, Fernando Nieve, Dan Ortmeier

Well, you have to give the Jamboree credit for consistency.  In the five years I have been putting this study together, this franchise has ranked #21, #23, #21, #20 and #22.  According to my previous FTDOTC study, the Bear Country franchise has produced only two significant alumni from their farm (Hideki Matsui and Tom Wilson) since 2000.  That's just pitiful.  As I said in the Sylmar commentary, having a sub-par farm system while playing in the same division as the Undertakers is a surefire recipe for disaster.  On the bright side, the Jamboree own a couple of high-ceilinged high school talents - Danks and Moses - that could shoot right up these rankings within the next year or two.  Then again, Danks and Moses could turn into the 2004 versions of Matt Harrington and B.J. Garbe.  That's why they call them "high-risk/high-reward".  There really isn't one prospect on the Bear Country farm that has a better than 50/50 chance of becoming an all-star.

#23 Nashville Funkadelic
Ranked prospects: Mike Hinckley (75), Wilson Betemit (108), Grant Balfour (125)
Unranked prospects: Travis Chapman, John Gall, Freddy Guzman, Todd Jennings, Kit Pellow, Joe Thurston, Bobby Madritsch, Arnaldo Munoz, Andy Pratt, Aaron Taylor

The Funk farm has now ranked last or next-to-last in this annual report in three of the past five seasons.  Last year, Nashville fell all the way from #6 to #24, based mostly upon the implosion of Betemit's career.  This year, Betemit's career doesn't look any better, and there is little hope on the horizon that any of Nashville's prospects will rank among the top 50 next year.  In my previous FTDOTC article, Nashville's farm was ranked #23 in the BDBL in terms of farm production.  It doesn't appear that ranking will change any time soon.

#24 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Kevin Correia (117)
Unranked prospects: Lizahio Baez, Humberto Cota, Josh Fields, Donald Murphy, Mike Rouse, Jeff Salazar, Corey Smith, Jorge DePaula, Ryan Feierabend, Alexander Smit, Andy Van Hekkan

To paraphrase Mike Stein's alter ego: "Worst...farm system...ever!"  This is just pathetic.  It really is.  How awful is the Cleveland Rocks farm system?  If it were a movie, it would be "Gigli."  If it were a TV show, it would be "Cop Rock."  And if it were an entertainer, it would be John Tesh.  The Rocks farm system is so bad, it's almost good, in a William Hung kind of way.  The Rocks farm system is so bad, Phil Geisel shakes his head at it and makes that "tsk, tsk" noise with his tongue, disgusted by the unabashed apathy displayed by Cleveland's farm director.  The worst part about this year's farm is that it is nothing new for Cleveland.  In the previous four years, Cleveland's farm ranked #20, #24, #24 and #21.  The fact that the Rocks have been able to remain competitive while sporting a farm club this awful is simply amazing.  As I said last year at this time, just imagine how good the Rocks could have been all these years if they had some decent farm players to trade mid-season.