From the Desk of the Commish

This is the #1 story of the year pretty much every year, is it not? Stop me if you've heard this story before: A team that is already favored to win the BDBL championship adds a major impact player for pennies on the dollar, and seemingly makes the rest of the season an exercise in futility, causing many owners to lose hope and begin planning for next year.

This year, "The Trade" was, of course, Wapakoneta's acquisition of Jason Schmidt. Here, we had the team already favored (by both league polling and yours truly) to win the BDBL championship adding a legitimate #1 starter in exchange for...well, let's just say "less than market value" and leave it at that.

Already, Schmidt's impact on the Hippos has been significant, as he went 5-0 in Chapter Two, with an ERA of 2.20. For the other teams in the Person Division, Schmidt's acquisition has brought an end to any morsel of early-season optimism they may have had. For the other teams in the Eck League, "The Trade" has meant lowered expectations heading into the playoffs. And the aftershocks of "The Trade" have even been felt as far as the Ozzie League, where the eventual OL champ can only pray for a Ravenswood-like upset.

Speaking of Ravenswood, our defending champions came into this season favored to win their division according to the prestigious BDBL Pre-season Preview. In league-wide polling, Ravenswood barely trailed Marlboro (by a vote of six to five) to win the division. Yet after the first chapter of play, the Infidels found themselves trailing by six games and sporting a record of just 12-16.

This prompted a wave of depression and pessimism in the Ravenswood front office unlike any ever witnessed in the annals of league history, accompanied by a frightening combination of suicidal and homicidal ranting. Here is just a sample:

Many a time I have wondered why we have chosen this as our hobby. The last I checked, hobbies were supposed to be relaxing and enjoyable. But as you can see, this hobby of ours can easily drive a person over the edge. I've never been so grateful that I don't live anywhere near Ravenswood, Illinois.

It has been a bizarre year for the Cleveland Rocks, to say the least. In years past, Cleveland GM Mike Stein has been aptly characterized as the most optimistic owner in the BDBL. Time and again, Stein gambled away the future success of his franchise in exchange for a remotely slim chance of beating vastly superior competition for a spot in the post-season. And for six seasons in a row, he came up just short of that goal year after year.

This year, the Rocks owned a record of 12-12, just one game out of first place in their division, when Stein did the unthinkable and traded Schmidt. In past years, and with any other team, this trade would not have been surprising, given how quickly teams have waved the white flag. But this is the era of inflated penalties for poor performance, and these are the Cleveland Rocks -- the most optimistic franchise in the history of the BDBL. What on earth was going on? Was it an early April Fool's joke?

Unfortunately, it was no joke. Mike Stein -- formerly the league's most optimistic owner, who refused to wave the white flag time and again in years past, even while playing in the same division as such seemingly unbeatable teams as the Chicago Black Sox and Akron Rÿche -- had packed it in. Not only had he waved the white flag, but he did so only 24 games into the season, well before the MLB season had even begun. The unthinkable had become reality.

Of all the players who have been or likely will be traded this year, it is doubtful that any player would have more trade value on the open market than Schmidt. With starting pitching at a premium, Cleveland owned not only the most coveted starting pitcher available on the market, but Kelvim Escobar as well -- TWO top-30 starting pitchers. A team trading two such highly-coveted commodities should expect to receive such an overwhelming wealth of talent in return that competing in the near future would be a given. Instead, the Rocks traded both Schmidt and Escobar for two 27-year-old starting pitchers with mediocre track records and a combined MLB ERA of 4.43.

Once again, Mike Stein has taken a big -- and completely unnecessary -- gamble. If Cliff Lee and Adam Eaton become all-star caliber pitchers next season, that gamble will have paid off big-time. If they fail, Stein not only wasted a golden opportunity to finally secure a playoff spot for his franchise in the near future, but he also may have put his team in a $2-$5 million hole on Draft Day.

After three consecutive seasons in which the winner of the Griffin Division won the division by 29 games or more, we finally have a pennant race to get excited about. With the five-time division champion Los Altos Undertakers busy tending to their farm, the door has been opened for two new contenders -- neither of whom has played November baseball since the end of the Clinton administration.

After four straight last-place finishes, the Sylmar Padawans are currently leading the division by just two games. Their 34-22 record is three games better than their Pythagorean projection, thanks to a 10-2 record in one-run games. Despite moving into a more hitter-friendly ballpark before the season, the Padawans rank just eighth in the Ozzie League in runs scored, with 269. Pitching (4th-ranked 4.08 team ERA) and defense (2nd-ranked .989 team fielding percentage) have carried them.

Trailing by two games are the Silicon Valley CyberSox, who came into this season with two straight years of 98 or more losses. Like the Padawans, the CyberSox are also performing three wins better than their Pythagorean projection, thanks in part to a 10-5 record in one-run games. Like the Padawans, the CyberSox are struggling a bit offensively, hitting just .243/.316/.407 as a team with a 9th-ranked 249 runs scored. However, moving into a new pitcher-friendly ballpark this year has helped the CyberSox pitching staff to a second-ranked 3.74 ERA.

In head-to-head play, the Padawans made a bold statement during the first week of the season by sweeping the CyberSox in four hard-fought, low-scoring games. Then, on April Fool's Day, the two teams hooked up for a second time, resulting in a split. They will not meet again until Chapter Five.

The competition has been nearly as fierce off the field. Prior to Chapter Two, Sylmar traded über-closer John Smoltz in order to snag lefty ace Mark Buehrle. This past chapter, Silicon Valley answered that trade by snagging a lefty ace of their own in Odalis Perez.

This back-and-forth battle has captured headlines throughout the first three chapters, and there is no doubt that trend will continue through the final days of the season. With so many teams in the thick of the wild card race, the battle for first-place in the Griffin Division may determine which team plays in November and which team stays home.

In pre-season polling, not one person picked the Manchester Irish Rebels to win their division. Yet one-third of the way through the season, the Irish Rebels are in the lead. In large part, Manchester owes much of their success to an offensive lineup that is hitting .282/.354/.435 as a team and has scored a league-best 330 runs. This, despite playing in a ballpark modeled after pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

The Irish Rebels have benefited from some unlikely offensive performances by Omar Vizquel (.332/.392/.431) and Wes Helms (.326/.415/.457). They have also benefited from having two offensive-minded first basemen -- Sean Casey (.326/.390/.421) and Erubiel Durazo (.325/.404/.462) -- in the lineup at the same time.

Oddly enough, the Irish Rebels, who were once known primarily for their team defense, are not only playing a first baseman out of position at third, but are employing a Pr-rated shortstop (Nomar Garciaparra) as their primary second baseman. To date, Casey has committed 10 errors in 98 total chances (an .898 fielding %), while Garciaparra has committed 5 errors in 108 chances (.954.) As a team, the Irish Rebels have the second-worst defensive team in the OL with a .980 fielding percentage, and they rank second in the league in unearned runs with 34.

On the mound, the Rebels rank a mediocre 8th in the OL in ERA (4.71), and their ace, Rodrigo Lopez, is currently sporting an ERA of 5.55. Manchester's home ballpark has been a detriment to the team, as they are just 9-19 at home and 19-9 on the road. They've also been hurt by poor luck and poor relief pitching, as they are just 3-7 in one-run games and own a 1-5 record in extra innings.

After a blistering 18-10 start, Manchester now sits at an even .500 (28-28), only one game ahead of the Marlboro Hammerheads and defending-champion Infidels. Through the remainder of the season, the battle between the Irish Rebels, Infidels and Hammerheads should provide plenty of entertainment for the entire family.

When you lose 601 games over six seasons, it has to be difficult to find a reason for optimism. Yet 56 games into the 2005 season, optimism finally reigns in New Milford after an impressive 32-24 start. Once the whipping boys of the BDBL, the Blazers now tied for the lead in the OL wild card race and own the third-best runs differential in the entire BDBL.

New Milford's pitching staff sports a 3.93 team ERA (third-best in the OL) and Blazers hitters have scored 303 runs (fourth-best in the OL) and are hitting .283/.351/.438 as a team.

Shannon Stewart, who was selected in the second round of the free agent draft, is hitting .365/.421/.513 from the leadoff spot, with 30 runs scored in 44 games, and a 15/5 BB/K ratio. Melvin Mora (.330/.386/.612 with 17 HR) and Todd Helton (.340/.463/.601) are dominating as expected, and Tom Gordon (1.11 ERA, 16 SV's) has been lights-out in the Blazers bullpen.

This past chapter, for the first time in franchise history, the Blazers actually made a mid-season trade to improve their team for the remainder of the season, acquiring yet another bullpen stopper in Brad Lidge. However, the question remains whether Lidge was a necessary addition, given the team's dire need for a quality innings-eating starter. With the team's primary trade bait seemingly expended in the Lidge deal, adding that starter at this point may be difficult. But with assistant GM Anthony Peburn posting daily prospect propaganda on the forum, you never know who might take the bait.

With the Blazers no longer filling the role of BDBL whipping boys, someone had to step in. Without a doubt, that someone has been Matt Clemm, GM of the woeful Bear Country Jamboree. The Jamboree are currently 14-42 on the season -- a winning percentage of just .250. At this rate, Bear Country would not only break the New Milford Blazers' all-time single season record for futility (52-108 in 1999), they would shatter it into little tiny pieces.

The Jamboree have been so awful this year, they would need to boost their winning percentage by 64 points just to avoid a $5 million penalty. And they'd have to go 46-54 the rest of the way to avoid a $2m penalty.

The Jamboree have been so awful this year, they have already been outscored by 120 runs. No other team has been outscored by more than 82 runs this season. The all-time BDBL record is 316 runs, set by the SoCal Slyme in 2002. At their current pace, the Jamboree would be outscored by 343 runs this season.

The Jamboree have been so awful this year, they own a team ERA of 5.83. The worst ERA in Ozzie League history is 5.60, set by the New Milford Blazers in 1999.

Jamboree pitchers have been so awful, they've allowed more walks (291) than strikeouts (285.) No other team in BDBL history has come close to this "achievement." (The closest were the 2001 Massillon Tigerstrikes, who struck out only 154 more batters than they walked.)

Jamboree hitters have been so awful, they've hit just .243/.317/.396 as a team, and have averaged just 4.1 runs per game. They are on pace to score only 657 runs. The all-time BDBL record for fewest runs scored in a season is 575, set by the 2002 Southern Cal Slyme, so the good news is that they probably won't break that record as well.

And individually, the Jamboree feature perhaps the worst pitcher in BDBL history. Check out this line from Stephen Randolph:

Batters are hitting .305/.453/.576 against Randolph, which basically means that every batter he faces hits like Lance Berkman.

Looking back, it is hard to imagine how I could have picked this team to finish in third place.

Each year, the bottom line is that the team that squeezes the most production out of their allotted $63.5 million in salary wins. But take a look at how the Mustangs spent their $63.5 million this winter:

That's $25.6 million -- nearly 40% of the team's total allotted salary -- spent on something other than player salaries. Even when you consider the Litchfield Lightning teams of the past, the 2005 Mustangs may represent the worst allocation of resources in BDBL history.

Of the $17.8 million the Mustangs paid in penalties this winter, $10.3 million was deliberately acquired through off-season trades. If you add Wells (who is basically a walking $9 million penalty), that figure jumps to $19.3 million. The Mustangs unloaded Ken Griffey, Jr. through those trades, so one could argue that by spending $19.3 million this year, Villanova saved themselves $25 million over the next three years. However, you have to remember that Griffey has some value this year, and should have some value in 2006 and 2007 as well, while the $19.3 million Villanova spent this winter has negative value in 2005.

Next, we come to the issue of the discarded $5.8 million. Under normal circumstances, it would seem logical for every team to maximize every dollar spent. Chamra's strategy, however, was to leave a great deal of money unspent so that a greater number of cheap players could be horded on the reserve roster. In fact, had his original trade with Allentown not been voided, the Mustangs would have given away an additional $3.9 million in spending money, simply for the sake of collecting more cheap players.

The question is: Given Chamra's strategy, could that $5.8 million have been spent in a more efficient way? If hording top prospects is the goal, couldn't they have taken on another team's $5.5m penalty in exchange for a top prospect? Or perhaps they could have drafted an extra $5m player in the draft, then traded that player later in the season for a prospect or two. Either solution would have been preferable to simply throwing that money out the window.

During the winter, Villanova parted with several players who could have helped them in 2005, including Miguel Tejada, Chad Cordero, Michael Barrett, Brian Giles and Shingo Takatsu. Had they held onto those players, it is likely the Mustangs would be a serious contender right now. Instead, Villanova stands at 29-27, seven games out of first place in the division and one game out of the lead in the wild card race.

It is impressive, to say the least, that this team has been able to remain competitive with a payroll that is 40% lower than most other teams in the league. Still, one can't help but wonder how good this team would be right now had they made the decision to compete instead of stockpiling for the future.

There isn't a more interesting experiment in the BDBL right now than the one taking place in Los Altos. When Jeff Paulson rebuilds, he doesn't mess around. The Undertakers could easily go from 106 wins to 106 losses in one year, and it has all been done by design.

After an improbable 13-15 start that evoked comparisons to the 2001 Swamp Rats, the Undertakers fell back to earth a bit in Chapter Two, going 11-17. The big question on the minds of all Undertakers fans is: How long will it take for this team to reclaim the top spot?

Before we answer that, let's figure out how this team got into this mess in the first place. Here are the top thirteen players from the 2004 team, ranked by 2003 MLB VORP:

Player	2003 VORP	2004 VORP	Status
Jim Thome	65.9	60.3	Traded
Jamie Moyer	62.6	12.9	Active
Ryan Franklin	50.6	22.7	Active
Darrell May	44.2	-1.2	Released
Eric Gagne	39.4	28.2	Active
Mark Loretta	36.2	76.2	Traded
Ramon Hernandez	34.4	30.3	Free agent
Tim Wakefield	31.0	9.4	Active
Jose Valentin	30.1	14.9	Free agent
Jay Gibbons	26.5	-1.7	Active
Odalis Perez	19.2	49.7	Traded
Adrian Beltre	17.7	89.1	Free agent
Jose Cruz, Jr.	16.1	19.5	Free agent

Here we see that of the thirteen most valuable players on the Los Altos roster last year, four were lost to free agency, three were traded and one was released. The four remaining active players lost a total of 138.6 VORP points, and the Undertakers received just 41.4 VORP points in exchange for the three players they traded (who totaled 186.2 points.)

No player outside of last year's top thirteen stepped up to take the place of the departed or slumping players, leaving Los Altos with a pitiful foundation upon which to build a contending team in 2005. Unlike Tony Chamra, Jeff Paulson really didn't have a choice as to whether to contend or rebuild in 2005. And unlike the Mustangs, it may take more than a year for the Undertakers' overflowing stable of prospects to mature.

Financially, Los Altos is only committed to three players at a total of $17.2 million in 2006, with no financial commitments beyond the '06 season. This should give the team a ridiculous amount of spending money to splurge on what many believe to be the two strongest free agent classes in league history.

The problem is that, unless a miracle occurs, Los Altos will have the lowest tie-breaker in the league next year, a hefty penalty and a low draft pick as well. Despite having one of the top farm systems in the league, most of those players are several years away from making an impact. Of the group, only Franklin Gutierrez, Alexis Rios, Rickie Weeks, David Bush, Edwin Jackson and Aaron Heilman have an outside chance of helping this team in 2006.

If the Undertakers are to be competitive over the next two years, then, they will likely have to rely upon shrewd trading and big-money free agents.

When this team's youngsters finally blossom, the theory goes, the Undertakers will be an unstoppable dynasty. How good can this team be? To answer that question, I looked at Baseball America's top 13 prospects over the past ten years and tallied their combined 2004 MLB VORP. This will give us an idea of how long it takes for top prospects to arrive, and also what to expect once that time comes. Here are the results:

Prospect Class	Total VORP
2004	62.4
2003	249.7
2002	228.4
2001	389.9
2000	188.9
1999	346.7
1998	525.4
1997	433.2
1996	350.8
1995	314.9
1994	261.3

Surprisingly, it doesn't take that long at all for a prospect class to make an impact. Only one year after appearing on BBA's top prospect list, the top 13 prospects totaled 249.7 points, and over the next ten years, they averaged about 329 VORP points as a group.

You may be wondering why I chose the top 13, as opposed to the top 10 or top 20. And the reason was to demonstrate that only one BBA class -- the Class of 1998 -- outperformed the top 13 performers on the 2004 Undertakers, who totaled 473.9 VORP points. In other words, even the 13 best prospects in the game aren't better than the 13 best Undertakers from last year.

Of course, the theory is that these 13 prospects will command far less in salary than the top 13 players on the 2004 Undertakers, which will allow the team to overspend on free agents, thus giving the team loads of bang for the buck. If Jeff Paulson has the patience to wait for those teenage prospects of his to mature, this master plan may actually work someday. But that day may come a lot later than sooner.

How would you like to own a batter that is hitting .315/.479/.695? Now, how would you like to own TWO of them? Those are the combined numbers for Wapakoneta's Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols so far this season.

Combined, the two have created 132.5 runs already through 56 games. That represents 43% of the Hippos' total runs created. The two have combined for 38 home runs (nearly half of the Hippos' total) and 109 RBI's (36%.) They've also walked 107 times combined, while striking out just 44 times. And because they're batting back-to-back, they've been intentionally walked just 18 times. Oh, and they've also stolen 8 bases in 9 attempts, have committed just two errors and have thrown out 7 runners attempting to advance a base.

The Stories of the Year (So Far)