November, 2005

2005 BDBL Playoffs Preview

"We have to find a better way to describe this phenomenon than 'luck.' Made famous in part by Billy Beane's quote in Moneyball, the idea that playoff series are determined by luck is both inaccurate and an inelegant way to present the concept to people invested in the idea that it's how the best team is determined. It sounds like you're...making an excuse for the team that lost.

The term 'luck' is actually shorthand for a more difficult concept; that when two playoff-caliber teams square off in a best-of-five or best-of-seven series, any result is reasonably likely. Just because a particular one occurs doesn't reflect anything other than the events that made up that series: one player's hot week, or one pitcher's inability to throw his curve for strikes, or a baserunner's ill-fated decision to take an extra base. These events do not, despite the mythology of October, enlighten us about the character or fortitude of people...

Those things aren't luck, they're performance, and using the former word to describe them isn't helping us make the larger concept accessible to more people. That's a challenge that we're going to have to meet."

-- Joe Sheehan, 10/7/2004

"It's a crapshoot. Getting here was the tough part. When you're a manager or you're a coach in football or baseball, you understand that there's certain things that you control, and you don't always control the final score."

-- Joe Torre, 10/10/2005

It has been said that Texas Hold 'em poker is the perfect game because it requires enough skill to ensure that the best players win more often than not, and enough luck to keep the game interesting for all involved.  The same can be said of playoff baseball.  Over a long, 160-game season, the better teams will inevitably win more often than they lose.  But in any given series, literally anything can happen.

The only certainty about playoff baseball is that players who have performed at an MVP level all season will suddenly slump, players that have performed poorly all season will suddenly shine, and the unexpected will become commonplace.  History tells us this is inevitable:

• In 1999, Trevor Hoffman saved 51 games for the Los Altos Undertakers, with a 1.37 ERA and just 34 hits allowed in 79 innings.  But in three Division Series games, Hoffman allowed three runs on four hits through just 3 2/3 innings, going 0-2 in the best-of-five series to cost Los Altos the series.
• Luis Alicea hit just .180/.271/.262 in 61 at-bats for the Stamford Zoots during the 1999 regular season.   But in the seventh game of the 1999 OLCS, Alicea (batting in the leadoff spot) went 2-for-4 with a pair of home runs en route to a 2-1 Stamford win.
• In 2000, Albert Belle hit .264/.399/.508 for the Los Altos Undertakers, with 39 homers, 125 walks and 130 RBI's.  But in the OLCS that year, he had just one hit in seventeen at-bats, with just two walks, five strikeouts and zero RBI's.  Los Altos lost in five.
• In 2001, Mike Mussina won 19 games for the Salem Cowtippers, with just 218 hits and 61 walks allowed in 258+ innings.  As a team, the Cowtippers hit .285/.375/.473, with a league-leading 949 runs scored.  But in the OLCS, Mussina was pounded for 9 runs on 14 hits through just 5 2/3 innings (a 12.71 ERA), while the Salem offense hit just .220/.308/.331 as a team.  Salem was swept in four straight.
• In 2002, Los Altos Undertakers reliever Juan Moreno was lights-out all season.  Through 42 innings, Moreno allowed just 10 hits and three earned runs (a miniscule ERA of 0.64.)  But in 3 1/3 innings in the OLCS, Moreno allowed two runs on three hits and five walks.  Los Altos lost the series in seven games.
• That same year, Salem Cowtippers reliever Mike Magnante had a grand total of zero plate appearances on his résumé, but stepped up in the bottom of the tenth inning of Game Six, with two outs, and hit a walk-off grand slam home run off John Smoltz.  That win forced a Game Seven, which Salem nearly won.
• In 2003, Manny Ramirez hit .345/.419/.642 for the Allentown Ridgebacks, with 33 homers and 84 RBI's in only 134 games.  But in the World Series, Ramirez (who was routinely pitched to after an intentional walk of Barry Bonds) went 3-for-26 in the series, with zero runs batted in.  Allentown lost in seven games.
• In 2004, Los Altos closer Eric Gagne won both the Cy Young and MVP awards after allowing just 24 hits in 85 innings during the regular season, with just two runs allowed (one earned) all season.  But in the Division Series, Gagne allowed two runs (both earned) in three innings of work, ending the Undertakers' quest for their first World Series appearance.
• Also in 2004, the Salem Cowtippers pitching rotation included three aces in Brandon Webb, Curt Schilling and Barry Zito.  But in the final three games of the OLCS, those three pitchers allowed a total of 13 runs in the first inning alone.

All of the above leads one to believe that the post-season is nothing but a random roll of the dice.  In fact, a recent Baseball Prospectus article argues very persuasively that the entire post-season is nothing but -- as Joe Torre says -- a crapshoot.

Of course, since I haven't ever won a league championship, it's easy for me to say it's all a crapshoot.  Nor do I remember Torre ever uttering the word "crapshoot" between 1998-2000.  Had I ever won a trophy in this league, I'd undoubtedly be explaining right now how post-season success is determined solely by intangibles like intelligence, preparation, hard work and good looks.  Or then again, maybe I wouldn't.  With any "luck", we'll know the answer to that question by this time next year.

This year's post-season welcomes back four teams from last year's tournament, including both of last year's World Series teams, the Chicago Black Sox and the defending champion Ravenswood Infidels.  The Salem Cowtippers make their sixth appearance in the post-season, while the Allentown Ridgebacks return for the fourth season in a row.  The Wapakoneta Hippos will play November baseball for the third time in franchise history, and the Silicon Valley CyberSox are making their first appearance since 2002 (but the first under Greg Newgard's leadership.)

But what makes each November most special is the appearance of newcomers to the post-season party.  This year is particularly heart-warming because it involves one team (Sylmar) that has finished in last place for the past four seasons in a row, and another (Atlanta) that has finished in last place for the past FIVE seasons in a row.  Needless to say, these two teams have certainly paid their dues, and it will be a pleasure watching them battle it out with the glory of the BDBL championship on the line.

Hot Links:
Salem vs. Ravenswood
Sylmar vs. Silicon Valley
Chicago vs. Wapakoneta
Allentown vs. Atlanta

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

For the most part, the foundation of the 2005 Cowtippers was built in 2004.  The bulk of the starting lineup -- Lance Berkman (.325/.453/.560, 31 HR, 104 RBI), Mark Teixeira (.280/.363/.553, 39 HR, 126 RBI), Michael Young (.313/.352/.464), Trot Nixon (.333/.394/.497 in 159 AB) and Sean Burroughs (.309/.354/.363) -- were carried over from the 2004 division-winning team.  2004 free agent acquisition Curt Schilling (23-6, 2.83 ERA) anchors the '05 starting rotation, while the bullpen began the season with carry-overs Francisco Cordero and Juan Cruz (1-3, 2.54 ERA, 11 SV).

After wheeling and dealing their way to the League Championship Series in 2004, Salem laid low last winter, making just two trades to improve their 2005 squad.  Both trades, however, were significant in impact.  First, the Cowtippers added a second ace, Roger Clemens (17-6, 2.42 ERA), at the expense of Brandon Webb and Guillermo Mota.  Next, the starting lineup was bolstered in a trade with the Los Altos Undertakers in which Salem added Mark Loretta (.340/.398/.492, 137 RS), Odalis Perez, Craig Monroe (.312/.374/.513) and Jose Molina at the expense of four top prospects.  Perez was later traded in the instantly-infamous deal involving prospects Delmon Young and Ian Stewart, with platoon outfielder Jose Hernandez (.332/.409/.583 in 223 AB) coming Salem's way as well.

In the free agent auction, Salem snagged Ivan Rodriguez (.358/.389/.557) at the bargain salary (at least, in terms of '05) of just $7 million.  This signing left Salem without enough money to fill the hole in their starting rotation.  As a result, they were forced to sacrifice another top prospect, Kendry Morales, in exchange for Brad Penny, prior to the Chapter One deadline.  Penny was then jettisoned to the Infidels for Greg Maddux (15-14, 4.07 ERA).

During the season, it quickly became apparent that Cordero (3-2, 4.43 ERA as a Cowtipper) had worn out his welcome in Salem.  This began a season-long shuffle in the closer's role.  Cordero was sent to Chicago for Mota.  Mota was then sent to Marlboro for Wilson Alvarez (5-0, 3.47 ERA in 49+ IP for Salem).  Alvarez was then moved to the rotation when Salem acquired B.J. Ryan (2-1, 3.29 ERA in 27+ IP as a Cowtipper) from Gillette in a deal involving Delmon Young.  Ryan kept the closer's seat warm for one chapter until he, too, was traded in exchange for Manchester closer Mariano Rivera (1-2, 2.57 ERA, 10 SV for Salem).  Octavio Dotel (3-0, 4.50 ERA for Salem) was later added as insurance, replacing failed middle relief experiment Rudy Seanez (7.01 ERA.)

The defending BDBL champion Infidels began this off-season by briefly toying with the idea of waving the white flag before the 2005 season even began.  Instead, GM Brian Potrafka rolled up his sleeves and went to work.

With Pudge Rodriguez lost to free agency, and Carlos Delgado suffering an off-year, the only offensive assets carried over from the championship roster were Eric Chavez and Adam Dunn (.245/.394/.466).  But in a series of moves that would make Sharky Kaminski shake his head in disbelief, Delgado was traded to Akron, then reacquired, then traded to Los Altos.  When the dust settled, Ravenswood had replaced Delgado at first base with Jim Thome (.237/.357/.439).

At third base, Chavez was replaced with Mike Lowell (.300/.376/.507) in a trade with the New Hope Badgers.  And behind the plate, Rodriguez's spot was filled by Michael Barrett (.258/.299/.412), who came at the expense of Dontrelle Willis as part of a six-player deal with Villanova. Placido Polanco (.298/.344/.430) and Jayson Werth (.280/.361/.589 in 175 AB) were also added in a pair of eleventh-hour deals.

With the offense intact, ace Johan Santana (21-8, 2.42 ERA) returning for another year of dominance on the mound, and Danny Kolb (4-3, 3.73, 5 SV) and Damaso Marte (11-8, 3.04) heading the bullpen, the Infidels concentrated all of their efforts in the auction on solidifying their starting rotation.  By the end of the auction, Ravenswood had secured a couple of aging Hall of Famers in Tom Glavine (11-11, 4.57) and Greg Maddux.  Then, before the start of Chapter One, Maddux was traded to Salem in exchange for Brad Penny (11-8, 3.04).

During the season, Ravenswood further strengthened the starting rotation by adding Kelvim Escobar (8-8, 4.31) from Cleveland in a six-player trade prior to Chapter Three.  The Infidels then added Bernie Williams (.259/.364/.425 for Ravenswood), Ugueth Urbina (2-1, 6.67) and Ron Villone (2-4, 4.50) prior to Chapter Four, in an attempt to further strengthen the bullpen and bench.  And prior to the annual trading deadline, Ravenswood added two more relievers in Troy Percival (0-2, 8.31 ERA as an Infidel) and Shingo Takatsu (0-1, 5.59).

What they've done this year:

The Cowtippers led the BDBL in wins, runs differential and runs scored this season.  Historically, only four other teams in league history have outscored their opponents by more runs than the 2005 Cowtippers: the 2002 Ridgebacks, 2002 Cowtippers, 2003 Akron Ryche and 2001 Kansas Law Dogs.  Of those four teams, only the 2003 Ryche failed to make it to the World Series, while only the 2002 Ridgebacks succeeded in actually winning the Series.

Salem's .304 team batting average is a new Ozzie League record.  Three of the top four hitters in the OL batting race, including batting champ Rodriguez, are 'Tippers.  Of the thirteen batters on the Salem roster with 100 or more at-bats this season, NINE of them hit .300 or better.

Loretta and Young scored a whopping 261 runs this season, batting in the #1 and #2 spots in the lineup, while Rodriguez, Berkman and Teixeira drove home a whopping 360 runs batting in the #3, #4 and #5 spots.  Each of these five players has created more than 100 runs this season.

On the mound, Salem's one-two punch of Clemens and Schilling combined for 40 wins and 417 strikeouts in 483 innings, with a 2.63 ERA.  Both pitchers are well-represented among the league leaders.  Thanks to those two, Cowtippers starters as a whole led the BDBL in ERA at 3.62.  Salem's starters also went longer in the game, on average, than any other team in the BDBL (at 6.6 innings per game.)  The Cowtippers also led the league (by a longshot) in quality starts with 104 (65%.)

The Ravenswood offense ranked in the middle of the Ozzie League in nearly every category.  Their 771 team OPS is just 3 points above the league average, and their 787 runs scored ranks sixth in the OL.  Of course, this team would have performed much better had it not been for the dramatic (and well-documented) collapses of Thome (who hit 181 OPS points below his MLB average) and Barrett (115 points below.)  In Ravenswood's favor, however, both Thome (.346/.430/.704 in Chapter Six) and Barrett (.351/.359/.541) seem to be heating up just in time for the post-season.

On the mound, Santana dominated for the second year in a row, ranking among the top ten in wins, ERA, strikeouts, BA against, OBP against, SLG% against and hits per nine.  Penny was a solid #2 starter, with 16 quality starts in 22 games, and veteran lefty Jeff Fassero (9-4, 3.54) quietly contributed 122 quality innings as a starter.  With Escobar likely getting the Game Three nod, the Game Four start will be up for grabs between Fassero and Glavine.

In the bullpen, Marte received the bulk of the innings, while saves were distributed to no less than ten different pitchers throughout the season.  Scott Williamson (2-5, 3.77 ERA) led the team in saves with 13, despite walking 26 batters in 31 innings.  The Ravenswood bullpen ranked second in the OL in inherited runners scoring at just 27.1%.

Ravenswood got off to a 12-16 start in Chapter One, but rebounded to go 15-13 the following chapter.  They continued to ride a roller coaster throughout the rest of the year, going 17-7 in Chapter Three, 12-12 in Chapter Four, 13-15 in Chapter Five and 17-11 in Chapter Six.

How they've done against each other this year: 

After losing three straight to the Infidels to end the 2004 OLCS, Salem exacted their revenge by going 8-0 against them in their first eight meetings this season.  They closed out their final series, however, by winning just one of four.  In total, the Cowtippers outscored the Infidels this season 66-38 in head-to-head match-ups.

Ravenswood ace Santana allowed 7 runs (5 earned) on 15 hits and 3 walks through 11 innings against the Cowtippers this season, while Salem ace Schilling held the Infidels scoreless in three games (19.2 innings.)  Maddux allowed five runs in 23 innings, while Penny earned just two starts against the Cowtippers, and got shelled in both (13 IP, 22 H, 10 ER.)  Glavine appeared in five games against Salem (three in relief), and allowed 10 runs in 15 innings.

Loretta (.321/.373/.472), Young (.308/.345/.538), Rodriguez (.388/.404/.633) and Hernandez (.423/.444/.654) all feasted on Infidels pitching, while Lowell (9-for-44), Thome (9-for-44), Dunn (10-for-43), Menechino (3-for-31) and Williams (7-for-31) all struggled against Salem pitching.

Salem's hitting against Ravenswood's pitching this season (and vice-versa):

Keys to the series:

The Cowtippers are 57-16 (.781) in games started by either Clemens or Schilling this season, and 51-36 (.586) in games started by all other starters, while the Infidels are 36-23 (.610) in games started by Santana or Penny, and 50-51 (.495) in games started by all others.  Last year, the Cowtippers experimented with a three-man rotation throughout the LCS in order to gain maximum advantage from their ace pitchers.  Don't expect them to make that same mistake again.

The Cowtippers were an astounding 81-6 this season in games in which they scored more than five runs.  That .931 winning percentage is easily tops in the BDBL.  Of course, this also means they were 27-46 (.370) in games in which they scored five or fewer runs.  Salem averaged 5.5 runs per game against Ravenswood this season.  But obviously, all of that flies out the window once the calendar flips to November.

Salem pounded left-handed pitching to the tune of .319/.381/.500 -- the top OPS against lefties in the BDBL.  Against righties, the 'Tippers hit a comparatively meager .300/.363/.460.  The Infidels destroyed left-handed pitching, compiling an 821 OPS against southpaws (second only to Salem in the OL.)  In particular, Lowell (.299/.444/.628), Polanco (.339/.373/.528) and John Mabry (.385/.444/.646) were lefty WMD's.  Against right-handers, no Ravenswood batter posted a 900+ OPS, though several topped 850.  With Salem throwing three righties, and Ravenswood throwing as many as three lefties, these split stats could play a huge factor in this series.

The Salem bench was the best in the BDBL this season.  Salem pinch hitters hit .344/.427/.525 as a group, with 16 homers in 358 at-bats.  Ravenswood used more pinch hitters than any other team in the league (566 at-bats), but hit just .258/.351/.367 as a group.  In the late innings, look for Salem to have the advantage, both in terms of bullpen and bench strength.

If there is one thing we've learned through past BDBL playoff history, it is that "sure-thing" closers are anything but sure things in November.  Unfortunately for Salem, their closer, Rivera, wasn't even a sure thing during the regular season.  He blew 5 saves in just 15 opportunities, costing the Cowtippers five wins down the stretch.  If he continues to perform poorly in the post-season, it could spell doom for the Cowtippers.

For Ravenswood, the most urgent question is which Jim Thome will show up in the post-season: the one that hit .217/.344/.390 through the first five chapters, or the one that hit .346/.430/.704 during Chapter Four, and .274/.396/.581 through the 2004 MLB season.

Finally, the Cowtippers own the best home record (60-20) in the BDBL this season, and will enjoy home field advantage throughout the post-season, thanks to their league-best 108-52 record.  Ravenswood sported the same 43-37 record at home as they did on the road.  Advantage: Salem.

Prediction:

Last November, Salem's top three pitchers allowed 13 first-inning runs in the final three games of the OLCS, bringing a shocking end to their hopes and dreams of winning a BDBL championship.  This year, the Cowtippers have scored 142 first-inning runs -- 13 more than any other team in the BDBL -- while Cowtippers pitchers have allowed 81 first-inning runs -- the fourth fewest total in the BDBL.  If such a thing were to happen again, it would prove beyond the shadow of a doubt the existence of Baseball Gods.

If this series goes seven games, Salem would have to rely upon Greg Maddux to win the biggest game of the season.  Therefore, in the interest of protecting my sanity, I will predict the Cowtippers in six. 

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

With four straight last-place finishes, the Padawans franchise has been in rebuilding mode for a long, long time.  Yet of the 25 players on the active roster, only five were acquired prior to 2004: Damian Miller (.261/.341/.399), Casey Blake (.260/.331/.480), Miguel Olivo (.337/.397/.743 in 101 AB), Juan Rivera (.326/.384/.487) and Francisco Rodriguez (8-3, 2.01 ERA, 17 SV).

Last year, the 2005 division-winning team began to take shape with the signing of free agent A.J. Burnett (12-2, 2.63 ERA) in the sixth round of the draft.  The Padawans picked up several additional key players in trade throughout that season, including Craig Biggio (.311/.354/.482), Raul Ibanez (.315/.382/.459), Dustan Mohr (.288/.425/.482), Lyle Overbay (.280/.373/.428), Danys Baez (5-3, 4.97 ERA), Ray King (2-3, 2.82) and Orber Moreno (1-1, 1.10 ERA, 31 SV).

This past winter, Sylmar's strategy seemed to be to accumulate players who would contribute to the 2005 team while having the potential to make a greater impact on future seasons.  Bobby Crosby (.260/.333/.425), Carl Crawford (.241/.289/.334), Juan Uribe (.280/.324/.464) and Kris Benson (17-15, 3.90) were all acquired before Cutdown Day.  Bobby Madritsch (5-0, 3.00) was the team's lone signing in the free agent auction.  Then, with the coveted #1 pick in the draft, the Padawans added Roy Halladay (9-7, 4.05) and Brandon Inge (.314/.377/.516).

During the course of this season, Sylmar added role players David Weathers (2-0, 6.43) and Barry Larkin (.333/.405/.394 in 33 AB) through trade.  But their biggest acquisition was made early in the season when they sacrificed closer/2006 ace John Smoltz in order to add free-agent-to-be Mark Buehrle (11-12, 3.66 as a Padawan) to the starting rotation.

After two straight years of 98+ losses, the CyberSox went shopping last winter in a big way, doling out $24.5 million for Adrian Beltre (.310/.378/.545, 37 HR, 103 RBI) and Chris Carpenter (15-7, 3.35 ERA) in the auction, and another $7 million for Milton Bradley (.294/.386/.463) and Marquis Grissom (.231/.289/.451) in the draft.

During the 2003-04 rebuilding years, Silicon Valley added four impact players in trade: Carlos Silva (11-11, 4.14) in 2003, and Ryan Drese (20-6, 3.06 ERA), Orlando Hudson (.276/.351/.437) and Carlos Lee (.266/.342/.464) in 2004.  Trevor Hoffman (5-2, 2.88 ERA, 1 SV) and Brady Clark (.271/.380/.454) went from bargain pickups in the 16th and 17th rounds of the '04 draft to key contributors to the 2006 team.

In the 2004 free agent auction, Silicon Valley signed closer Keith Foulke (6-8, 2.84 ERA, 36 SV), then gave him a two-year extension.  This past winter, the CySox added Bradon Looper (2-1, 1.83 ERA) in a trade that cost them Jeremy Hermida (who was then traded for Eric Gagne just weeks later.)

The CyberSox also added Odalis Perez (8-9, 4.61 ERA as a CySox) to the rotation prior to Chapter Three, and Mike Lieberthal (.306/.339/.504 for SVC) the following chapter.  Then, just prior to the annual deadline, Kevin Mench (.271/.330/.533) and Kent Mercker (5-1, 1.54 ERA as a CySox) were acquired as part of the Great New Milford Purge.

How they've done this year:

A quick glance at the chart at the top of this section reveals that even though they won the division, the Padawans trailed the CyberSox in nearly every category this season, including runs scored, runs allowed, OPS, slugging percentage, home runs, walks, ERA, walks allowed and home runs allowed.  Sylmar tallied more hits, doubles and triples than their division rivals, and their pitchers struck out more batters, but otherwise, this competition was lopsided in Silicon Valley's favor -- despite the identical won-loss records.

The Silicon Valley pitching staff established a new BDBL team record this season for fewest walks allowed (373 in 1439.2 innings, or 2.3 per nine.)  Looper (1.2 BB/9), Hoffman (1.5), Silva (1.6), Foulke (1.9), Carpenter (1.9), Perez (2.2), Tucker (2.4), Drese (2.5) and Robertson (2.7) were all well below the league average of 3.5 walks per nine.  With the fewest walks allowed, and the fewest strikeouts in the league (outside of Bear Country, of course), the CyberSox pitching staff allowed a lot of balls in play this season -- more than any other OL team with the exception of Manchester.  And thanks to an infield that includes Beltre (Ex range), Adam Everett (Ex) and Hudson (Vg), the CyberSox defense yielded only a .281 average on balls in play -- about 3 percent below league average.  They also led the league in fielding percentage, committing just 91 errors (a league low) while turning 177 double plays (third in the league.)

The Sylmar offense, on the other hand, trailed the league in walks this season with just 488.  They also struck out over 1,000 times, and hit just 158 home runs (second-fewest in the OL.)  But they hit .271 as a team (four points above league average) and compiled a .301 average on balls in play (about 4-percent above league average.)

The Sylmar bullpen led the league in saves (61) and saves percentage (71%).  They ranked fourth in the BDBL in ERA at 3.87, just behind Silicon Valley (3.79.)

And then there is Orber Moreno.  In 32+ innings this season, the Sylmar closer allowed just 4 runs on 16 hits through 32.2 innings.  Opposing batters hit just .145/.271/.145 against him this season, and opposing lefties were an astonishing 0-for-50 (with 12 walks.)  Moreno inherited 19 base runners this season, allowing only two of them to score, and he blew just one save in 32 chances.  His season ranks right up there with Eric Gagne in 2004, Juan Moreno in 2002 and Trevor Hoffman in 1999 as the greatest ever among relief pitchers.

It is only fitting that these two teams finished the season with identical won-loss records, given that they have mirrored each other all season long.  While Sylmar posted the top winning percentage in the BDBL against teams in their own division (34-14), the CyberSox weren't far behind (29-19.)  And while the Padawans outperformed their Pythagorean wins total by seven, the CyberSox underperformed by two games.  Their winning percentages by chapter:

How they've done against each other this year:

The Padawans began the season by winning all four of their Chapter One games against Silicon Valley -- all four games by three or fewer runs.  The two teams then split their final dozen games, giving Sylmar the 10-6 advantage on the season (and, of course, division title bragging rights.)

In total, the Padawans outscored the CyberSox just 68-65 in their sixteen meetings.  Four games were decided by one run, and three were decided by two runs.  Only one game -- an 8-1 Silicon Valley win -- was decided by more than five runs.  Neither team scored more than eight runs in any game, and there was only one shutout (a 2-0 Sylmar win in Chapter One.)

Burnett (.170/.275/.245) was all but unhittable against the CyberSox this season, while Halladay (.261/.297/.493) and Buehrle (.267/.329/.573) allowed 11 home runs combined in 38 innings.  Madritsch (.320/.375/.500 in 50 AB) was hit the hardest of all Sylmar pitchers.

On the CyberSox side, Carpenter (.239/.276/.326 against Sylmar hitters), Silva (.261/.324/.337) and Drese (.274/.326/.381) performed fairly well, allowing just two home runs combined through 73 innings, with 18 walks and 34 strikeouts.  Perez (.298/.353/.553 in 12 innings) didn't fare nearly as well.  And Sylmar hitters were just 2-for-24 against Foulke.

Both Lee and Beltre homered five times against Sylmar pitching this season, and combined for 23 RBI's, while Bradley was a miserable 8-for-47 against the Padawans.  On the other side, Crawford (9-for-61) struggled against CyberSox pitching, while Biggio (.467, with 3 HR in 30 AB) thrived.

Silicon Valley batters against Padawan pitchers this season (and vice-versa):

Keys to the series:

The Padawans batted 56 (OPS) points better against lefties than righties this season.  Of course, all three of Silicon Valley's top three starters throw from the right hand side, giving them an advantage.  Silicon Valley, meanwhile, hits slightly better (28 OPS points) against lefties than righties, which also plays into their favor against Sylmar ace Buehrle and possible Game Four starter Madritsch.

On the bench, the Padawans received outstanding performance this season from backup catcher Miguel Olivo (.373/.432/.819 in 83 AB's vs. LH, with 10 HR), though he will most likely be held in check by all of Silicon Valley's right-handed relievers (Foulke, Looper, Hoffman and Carrara.)  On the CyberSox bench, they can turn to Lou Merloni (.297/.366/.676 against LH in just 37 AB) and Mench (.350/.412/.767) against lefty Ray King, and Jose Lopez (.323/.349/.646 vs. RH in 99 AB) against lefty-killer Moreno.

The CyberSox have allowed 102 runs in the seventh inning of games this season -- the fifth highest total in the BDBL.  CyberSox pitchers allowed no more than 87 runs in any other inning this season.  Clearly, the CySox need to find a better bridge to build from their starters to their closer.

The Padawans led the BDBL in winning percentage (.592) in games decided by fewer than three runs.  Clearly, their bullpen has gotten the job done in late innings.  The question is: Will they continue to do so in the post-season, or will their luck run out?

Prediction:

When two teams are as evenly matched as these two, it is pure folly to predict who will win a short series.  Of course, that won't stop me from making a prediction.

While Sylmar will enjoy the home field advantage in this series, both teams sport identical home (46-34) and road (45-35) records this season, so there appears to be little advantage for either team.

Because Sylmar relies so heavily on their bullpen to win games, and because bullpens often collapse under the pressure of post-season play, I'll give the nod to Silicon Valley in seven classic, hard-fought, nail-biting, edge-of-your-seat games.

How the Championship Series may play out:

If Salem makes it past the first round, they are 7-5 against the CyberSox this season, and 6-6 against Sylmar.  Either way, it would be a very difficult match-up.  If Ravenswood prevails, they are 9-3 against Silicon Valley and 4-8 against the Padawans.

If my Division Series predictions hold true, then I will have to pick the Cowtippers over the CyberSox in the LCS, simply out of personal bias.  Given that next year will be a rough year for the 'Tippers, it would only be appropriate to see them get one last shot in the World Series before their time is through.

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

After losing Barry Bonds, J.D. Drew, Corey Koskie and Sammy Sosa to free agency, the Ridgebacks returned just Marcus Giles (.325/.399/474) to an offense that scored 871 runs in 2004 (second-best in the EL.)  A mid-winter trade for and Bobby Kielty (an astoundingly bad .183/.289/.421 in 126 AB) -- in which the R-Backs also acquired Billy Butler as a throw-in, just to make it even -- helped fortify the offensive attack heading into the auction.  Allentown then used some of that money freed up by the loss of Bonds (not to mention the off-loading of Sidney Ponson) to purchase Larry Walker (.306/.407/.647), Carlos Guillen (.360/.418/.598), J.T. Snow and Nomar Garciaparra in the auction.  With Guillen already slated to start at short, Garciaparra was expendable, so he was shipped off to the Manchester Irish Rebels in exchange for Billy Wagner (7-3, 2.28 ERA, 20 SV) prior to Opening Day.

The Allentown pitching staff needed no extensive reconstruction, as they were returning three aces from the '04 team in Randy Johnson (22-6, 2.31), Jake Peavy (15-7, 4.02) and Roy Oswalt (20-8, 4.19).  Last winter, the Ridgebacks exchanged Mark Mulder for Glendon Rusch (13-2, 2.96) in a seven-player deal with Atlanta, sewing up the final spot in their rotation.

Prior to the Chapter Three deadline, Allentown finally got their man, Corey Koskie (.300/.382/.620), from Villanova in exchange for Jenkins after the trade had been aborted the previous winter.  The following chapter, the Ridgebacks added Brian Roberts (.227/.314/.294) and Greg Zaun.  But the coup de grace didn't come until the Chapter Five deadline, when Allentown jumped into the middle of the Big Blazers Blowout Sale by snatching Todd Helton (.308/.411/.534), Aki Otsuka (0-2, 2.81 ERA, 6 SV in 25+ IP as a Ridgeback) and Orlando Hernandez (1-3, 7.28 ERA in 38+ IP for Allentown) at the expense of Snow, Zaun and future considerations.

In Atlanta, the Fire Ants found themselves the beneficiaries of the Great Villanova Purge last winter, acquiring both Miguel Tejada (.311/.354/.530 with 36 2B, 34 HR and 113 RBI) and Chad Cordero (5-2, 4.04 ERA, 1 SV) at the expense of two pitching prospects.  As mentioned, Atlanta also swapped Glendon Rusch for Mark Mulder (16-13, 4.94 ERA), in theory giving them over 100 innings in additional production from the same caliber of pitcher.

With Bobby Abreu (.291/.428/.504, 43 2B, 24 HR, 135 BB), Coco Crisp (.301/.364/.449), Paul Konerko (.265/.355/.488, 36 HR, 114 RBI), Paul Lo Duca (.266/.342/.419) and Aaron Rowand (.332/.369/.572 with a league-leading 54 doubles) returning from the '04 team, the Fire Ants added Mark Grudzielanek (.323/.356/.484) and Joe Randa (.262/.322/.404) through the draft, giving them a potent offense.

Atlanta spent just $300,000 on pitching last winter, as they carried a full pitching staff through into the 2005 season.  Joining Mulder in the rotation were 2003 draftee Livan Hernandez (13-11, 4.42), 2004 draftee Jaret Wright (14-6, 3.05) and 2004 trade acquisition Mark Hendrickson (7-6, 4.78).  And joining Cordero in the bullpen were Ricky Bottalico (5-6, 3.20, 2 SV), LaTroy Hawkins (8-2, 3.90, 28 SV), Kevin Gregg (4-2, 3.21) and John Parrish (2-2, 3.29), among others.

During the season, Atlanta made just one trade, adding Ray Durham (.279/.353/.502 in 319 AB for Atlanta) in a Chapter Three trade with the Nashville Funkadelic.

How they've done this year:

The Ridgebacks have been about as consistent as a team can be, going 18-10 in Chapters One, Two, Five and Six.  They went 16-8 in Chapter Three, and 14-10 in Chapter Four.  When you win 58% of your games in your worst chapter, you know you're doing okay.

In contrast, the Fire Ants stumbled out of the gates, posting an 11-17 record in Chapter One -- the worst record in the Eck League.  The following chapter, they posted the best record in the league at 19-9.  Take away the first chapter, and the Fire Ants played .600 ball (actually, .606) this season.  It took them quite a while to catch up after that false start, however, as they didn't take over the wild card lead until August 24th.

The Ridgebacks ranked third in the EL in runs scored with 926.  And for the fourth year in a row, the team topped 200 homers (with 211), despite the absence of a 35-homer season by any player on the team.  Craig Wilson (.267/.382/.516) led the team with 33 homers, followed by Koskie (28 HR), Guillen (25) and Walker (24).

The acquisition of Helton made a huge impact on Allentown's performance.  Before the trade, Allentown ranked fifth in the BDBL in runs scored, averaging 5.5 runs per game.  After the trade, the Ridgebacks ranked first in the BDBL with an average of 6.2 runs per game.

Atlanta also topped 200 homers as a team (with 208), and ranked fifth in the EL in runs scored.  As a team, the Fire Ants sported a .278 batting average (nearly identical to Allentown's .279 average), but they walked over a hundred times less than the Ridgebacks.  Atlanta's 101 stolen bases more than doubled Allentown's total, with Rowand, Crisp and Abreu each stealing 20 or more bases.

On the mound, Allentown (3.88) and Atlanta (4.11) were one-and-two in the EL in ERA this season.  Johnson will likely win his fifth BDBL Cy Young award this year, as he led the league in ERA, held opposing batters to .195/.254/.293 averages (all tops in the league), struck out 267 batters (second in the EL) and won 22 games (second in the EL.)  Johnson and Oswalt became the first 20-game-winning teammates since...well, Johnson and Oswalt in 2003.

Of course, Oswalt's number of hits allowed this season has a season-long source of fascination, thanks to Tom's weekly updates.  In the end, Oswalt allowed 292 hits through 259.2 innings.  This rate of 10.1 hits per nine was 15% higher than his MLB rate.  Of course, this was simply a function of bad luck, as Oswalt allowed a .335 average on balls in play -- 38 points higher than the league average.

The  Fire Ants' ace turned out to be Wright, who finished third in the EL in ERA.  Oddly enough, Atlanta lost five out of the six games Wright started in Chapter One, which goes a long way toward explaining the team's early struggles.  The Fire Ants won 19 of his next 25 starts.

The Ridgebacks bullpen led the BDBL this season with an ERA of 3.65.  Trailing closely behind was Atlanta's bullpen, with a 3.76 ERA.  The Atlanta bullpen blew 10 seventh inning leads this season, while the Allentown bullpen blew just six.  Otsuka, who had some well-documented problems in New Milford, posted a 2.81 ERA in over 25 innings for Allentown, allowing just 20 hits while striking out 21.  His problems appear to have been fixed by the change of scenery.

Atlanta pitchers hit seven home runs this season -- tops in the BDBL -- including four by Wright, two by Hernandez and one by Hendrickson.

How they've done against each other this year:

The Ridgebacks took the season series against Atlanta eight games to four, outscoring the Fire Ants 57-47.  Two of Atlanta's wins came in extra innings, and seven of the twelve games were decided by just one run.

Johnson was extremely effective (.165/.214/.228, with 22 K's in 22 IP) against Atlanta hitting.  Peavy earned only two starts against the Fire Ants, and allowed 5 ER in 12.1 innings.  Oswalt was brilliant in one game (9 IP, 3 H, 1 ER) against Atlanta, and not-so-brilliant in his other two starts (12.2 IP, 17 H, 10 ER.)  And Rusch yielded 7 runs in 13 innings against his former teammates.

Hernandez allowed just eight runs in 20.2 innings against Allentown this season, but didn't get the decision in any of those three starts.  Wright also turned in three quality starts, but went just 1-0.  Mulder also gave his team two quality starts, but went 0-1 in those two games.  Lilly served up three homers in 11 innings of work, and took the loss in both games.

Ridgeback hitters went 10-for-25 against Hawkins, scoring six runs against him in just five innings.  Abreu went just 8-for-43 (.186) against Allentown pitching this season, while Craig Wilson feasted on Fire Ants pitching, going 12-for-38 (.316) with 4 doubles, 4 homers and 13 RBI's.

Allentown batters against Atlanta pitchers this season (and vice-versa):

Keys to the series:

Kemper Stadium (Allentown's home park) suppresses right-handed home runs by 25%, which will reduce the effective of three of Atlanta's biggest power threats -- Konerko, Tejada and Rowand -- in four of the seven games.

Since the acquisition of Helton, the Ridgebacks are hitting .291/.391/.481 against lefties, which means two of Atlanta's starters -- Mulder and Lilly -- are going to have quite a challenge ahead of them.

Prediction:

The Ridgebacks have the advantage in terms of lefty/righty splits.  They hold the advantage in home-field park factors.  They also have the advantage of starting three top aces in a seven game series.  And their bullpen is steadier, allowing them to win more close games (26-22 in one-run games this season) compared to Atlanta (27-28.)

Nowhere does Atlanta hold an advantage over Allentown.  It would therefore be among the biggest upsets in league history if the Fire Ants were to win this series.

Allentown in four.

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

The core of this Black Sox team was built well before the 2005 season.  Ace Ben Sheets (23-6, 2.91 ERA, 57 BB's, 269 K's) was acquired through a series of flip-flop deals with the Marlboro Hammerheads back in the winter of 2004.  Mark Prior (9-3, 3.63 in 116+ IP) was acquired in the classic 2002 pre-season deal with the Akron Ryche.  Jeremy Bonderman (9-8, 4.80) was a first-round pick in the 2003 farm draft.  Vernon Wells () was acquired in a 2004 pre-season trade with Southern Cal.  Aubrey Huff was a second-round farm pick all the way back in 2000.  And Khalil Greene () was acquired in a 2003 trade with Salem.

Keeping track of Chicago's trades through the years can make one's head spin.  Last winter, Chicago traded Tim Hudson to Marlboro for Roger Clemens, then traded Clemens to Salem for Brandon Webb (14-9, 4.33) and Guillermo Mota.  Mota was later traded back to Salem for Francisco Cordero (2-3, 4.18 ERA, 25 SV).  Sheets was acquired from the Marlboro Hammerheads in exchange for Carlos Zambrano in the winter of 2004, then was traded back to Marlboro for Zambrano this summer, then traded back to Chicago before he'd thrown a pitch for Marlboro.  Aramis Ramirez and Mike Mussina were traded to Corona last year in exchange for Manny Ramirez.  Manny was then traded back to Corona this summer in exchange for Mussina and Aramis (.306/.364/.548 for Chicago).

At the auction, Chicago outbid six other teams for the rights to Vladimir Guerrero (.347/.393/.618, with 46 2B, 42 HR and 140 RBI).  Then, just before Opening Day, Chipper Jones was sent to Bear Country in exchange for Jose Vidro (.325/.392/.522).  Finally, prior to the Chapter Five deadline, Mussina, Jason Kendall and four top prospects were traded to Kansas in exchange for Gary Sheffield (.323/.431/.652 in 198 AB), Victor Martinez (.335/.402/.632) and Kevin Brown (4-2, 3.83 in 47 IP for the Black Sox).

The Hippos experienced one of the more remarkable transformations in league history this season.  Prior to the off-season, Wapakoneta was given little chance of competing in 2005.  But with Albert Pujols (.305/.398/.580, with 42 2B, 40 HR and 139 RBI's) returning from the '04 team, rookie Jason Bay coming out of nowhere to post all-star numbers, and gobs of money to spend on free agents, the Hippos were quietly positioning themselves not only to complete, but to dominate.

When the Sylmar Padawans put inexpensive ace Jake Westbrook on the block last winter, Wapakoneta (who most thought would be rebuilding in 2005) surprisingly emerged with the winning bid.  In addition to Westbrook (10-11, 3.34 ERA), the Hippos also acquired Joe Kennedy (6-10, 4.49) in that trade, and added John Thomson in a separate deal with the Bear Country Jamboree.

Then, with the biggest free agent in BDBL history up for grabs, the Hippos submitted the largest bid in BDBL history, winning Barry Bonds (.354/.532/.780, 36 2B, 54 HR, 149 RS, 134 RBI, 176 BB) at the bargain sum of $20.5 million.

Barely three months later, Wapakoneta added the biggest prize of the trading season in Cleveland ace Jason Schmidt (14-6, 4.20).  That same chapter, they added relievers Steve Kline (3-3, 7.00 ERA in 36 IP as a Hippo) and Justin Duchscherer (3-1, 4.19), along with bench player Keith Ginter (.296/.354/.500 as a Hippo), in a trade with the Hammerheads.  Then, prior to the annual trading deadline, the Hippos made the biggest splash of all, acquiring Melvin Mora (.297/.405/.471 in 172 AB for Wapakoneta), Brad Lidge (1-3, 3.92 ERA in 20+ IP), Juan Pierre (.321/.382/.398) and Duaner Sanchez (1-0, 6.75 ERA) from the New Milford Blazers in exchange for Bay and Duchscherer.

How they've done this year:

The Black Sox won 100 games for the fourth time in franchise history (tying the Salem Cowtippers in that category.)  Their runs differential of 191 ranks third in the BDBL behind Salem (280) and Allentown (247.)  For the second year in a row, Chicago led the Eck League in runs scored, with 945.  They hit .286/.350/.481 as a team, with 242 home runs (a BDBL high) and only 852 strikeouts (an Eck League low.)

The Chicago pitching staff posted a 4.20 team ERA, and was third in the EL in strikeouts, averaging 7.5 per nine.  The Black Sox bullpen led the league with 50 saves, but blew 26 more (a blown saves percentage of .310, which was three points higher than league average.)

The big trades made by the Hippos didn't seem to have much of an effect on their standings.  In fact, they seemed to get worse with each trade.  The Hippos posted a .571 winning percentage in Chapter One, and a .538 winning percentage from that point on, despite the acquisition of Schmidt.  And after the big Mora/Pierre/Bay trade of Chapter Four, the Hippos posted an awful record of 25-31, limping into the post-season.

Wapakoneta ranked fourth in the EL in runs scored, with 869.  Of course, most of the team's runs were generated by Bonds and Pujols, who accounted for a combined total of 352.3 runs created (almost 40% of the team's total.)  Oddly enough, the team's offensive production decreased after the trade of Bay to New Milford for Mora and Pierre.  The team ranked 6th in the BDBL in runs scored during the first four chapters (with an average of 5.5 per game), but fell to eighth in runs scored over the last two chapters (with an average of 5.2 per game.)

The Hippos pitching staff ranked fourth in the EL in ERA at 4.28, despite striking out just 929 batters (second-lowest total in the league.)  Wapakoneta pitchers surrendered just 129 longballs this year -- the lowest total in the league.

For what it's worth, Chicago pinch hitters were among the worst in the league, batting just .232/.287/.380 as a group.

How they've done against each other this year:

Wapakoneta took seven of the twelve games between these two teams during the regular season, despite being outscored by the Black Sox 63-58.  Chicago lost three one-run games to the Hippos this season, while outscoring them 37-15 in their five wins.

Sheets won two of the three games he started against Wapakoneta this year, allowing a total of 6 runs in 21+ innings.  Prior earned just one start against the Hippos, allowing 4 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks through 6 IP.  Webb allowed 13 runs (11 earned) through 19.2 innings, getting the loss in two out of three games.  And Bonderman allowed 11 runs through 17.2 innings of work.

For the Hippos, Schmidt posted a 1-2 record against Chicago this season, with 11 earned runs in 18 innings.  Westbrook earned just two starts against the Black Sox, allowing just three earned runs through 16.1 innings.  Suppan allowed three runs in each of his three starts against Chicago, but lasted just 16 innings total.  And Kennedy lost one game, allowing four runs through six innings, then pitched a complete game shutout in his next start against Chicago.

Chicago hitters against Hippos pitching this season (and vice-versa):

Keys to the series:

Bonds and Pujols.  Pujols and Bonds.  In a short series, those two have the ability to win four games all by themselves.  With Pierre and Mora setting the table in front of them, Chicago will breathe a huge sigh of relief every time the #5 hitter steps to the plate.

Will the real Jason Schmidt show up?  Schmidt is the only starting pitcher on the Hippos staff capable of shutting down the potent Chicago offense.  If he turns into Mike Mussina this November, the Hippos' ride will be a short one.

For Chicago, the key -- as always -- is pitching.  In 2000, Chicago built an offense that was second-to-none, but lost the World Series because their #2, #3 and #4 starters allowed 21 runs in 28 innings, and their closer was shelled for 6 runs in 6 innings.  In 2004, Chicago once again built an outrageously powerful offense, but lost to Ravenswood when their #3 and #4 pitchers allowed 16 runs in just 8.1 innings, and their closer allowed 4 runs in just 1 2/3.  Pitching is a funny thing, though, and there is simply no way to predict how any pitcher might perform in a short series.

Prediction:

I've been saying all season long that Wapakoneta is a more dangerous team in a short series than they are over a long season.  The Hippos don't have the type of pitching staff that you traditionally see from championship teams, but then again, neither did the '04 Infidels, and they seemed to do just fine.  With pitching, it's all a matter of timing and luck.  But when it comes to offense, having the front four the Hippos have is extremely beneficial in a short series.

That said, Chicago certainly isn't going to roll over and play dead.  This Chicago team is as good as the 2000 version, but not quite as good as the 2004 version.  Both teams went to the World Series.

My prediction is that the Hippos get hot and take the series in seven games.  It's just a gut feeling, though.

How the Championship Series may play out:

Both Allentown and Atlanta sported losing records against Chicago and Wapakoneta this year, so no matter who wins the Allentown/Atlanta series, they will be the underdog in the LCS.

Of the four teams, however, Allentown has the best mix of starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting.  So calling them an "underdog" would be a bit ridiculous.

I still like Wapakoneta's ability to win in a short series, but I'm going to go with Allentown to win their third Eck League title.

How the World Series may play out:

The possibilities here are pretty tasty.  We could see a rematch of last year's World Series, with Chicago getting a chance to avenge themselves against the Infidels.  We could see a rematch of the 2002 Series, with Salem getting another chance to win the final game of the season after losing their last series in the very last inning of the seventh game against Allentown.

Or, we could see Sylmar face Atlanta in a match-up of two teams that have finished in last place in each of the past four seasons.

I'm not even going to bother predicting what might happen.  If there is one thing I've learned in the seven-year history of this league, it is that the playoffs are -- as Joe Torre says -- nothing but a crapshoot.