gammons_topleft.gif (10271 bytes) gammons_topmid.gif (146 bytes)
gammons_mid.gif (598 bytes)gammons_mid2.gif (2444 bytes)


Editor's note: With Commissioner Glander away on vacation, guest columnist Peter "The Commissioner" Gammons supplies this month's FTDOTC column. Best wishes to Peter for a full recovery.

Riders On the Storm


By Peter Gammons
Special to bigdaddybaseball.com

June 28

The big Chapter Five trading deadline may be looming just around the corner, but most of the big names have already switched uniforms.  Unless something drastic changes over the next four weeks, all of the sellers have sold, and all the buyers have bought.  For most teams, it's simply a matter of riding out the storm and maintaining status quo until the big November dance.

Look, no one is saying there won't be ANY trades made down the stretch.  Anyone who knows Marlboro GM Ken "The Shark" Kaminski or New Milford GM Anthony "The Guppy" Peburn knows better than to make such an outrageous claim.  Remember, last year at this time, I stated that it was a bare market for both buyers and sellers, and that there would be little action or excitement at the trading table the rest of the way.  Less than two weeks after I wrote that column, the Blazers stirred up a hornet's nest by dumping every star player on their roster.

Could history repeat itself this season?  Well, over in Sylmar, the Padawans have gotten off to a humble 8-8 start after spending most of this past chapter stockpiling talent and fortifying their lineup with Paul Konerko and Eric Chavez for a big second-half push to the playoffs.  But still trailing the first place Silicon Valley CyberSox by eight games, and the wild card-leading Las Vegas Flamingos by seven games, is it too late for them?  Could we conceivably see a drastic reversal ala the '05 Blazers?

"If we're ten games back after the next chapter, I'd start to worry," says one team official.

Remember, these Padawans were considered to be the front-runners in their division when this season began.  And it's true that Duel has been a little distracted in the first half of the season, what with a painful knee operation and demands on his time due to his second career as a teacher.  But he is now focused and very confident that he can get his team back on track in the second half.

"If I wasn't confident that I could make it to the post-season," said Duel, "I wouldn't have mortgaged the future last chapter."

Duel points to his team's 22-3 record in the final 25 games of 2005, and believes his team can put together a similar streak this season.  But don't expect to see any more big names coming to Sylmar, as Duel believes he has everything he needs to make that playoff push.

Look, when's the last time you saw a team that is eight games back at the all-star break make a push to compete in this league?  The answer is never.  With the Padawans making all this noise, you'd expect the front-running Silicon Valley CyberSox to be a little worried.  But that's hardly the case.  And that's because Silicon Valley GM Greg Newgard believes he's playing with house money.

"If we lose a nine-game lead, it'll be tough to take," stated Newgard, "but we weren't supposed to be in this position.  We were supposed to lose 100 games."

Newgard figures that, at worst, he's secured a high draft pick in 2007, as well as a $1 million bonus for winning 80 games.  And since that was his only goal heading into this season, anything beyond that is gravy.  After all this franchise went through last season, battling the Padawans neck-and-neck from beginning to end, losing the division on a tie-breaker, then losing Game 7 of the Division Series by one run on a bloop single by Juan Uribe with two outs in the eighth, seeing the Padawans struggle this season -- and entertain thoughts of breaking up the "best bullpen ever" -- has been "priceless," says a team insider.

"John (Duel) was absolutely giddy after reading the pre-season reviews of his team," said the insider.  "He couldn't wait for the commish's season preview.  But he's the one with a sub-.500 record now -- not us."

Like the Padawans, the CyberSox don't plan to make any bold moves in Chapter Four.  After adding David Wells, Mark Ellis and Eddie Guardado last chapter, Silicon Valley will merely tie a big knot in that rope, and like the proverbial cat, hang on tight.

Over in the Benes Division, the Marlboro Hammerheads are basking in the glow of their BDBL-best 52-28 record.  And while GM Kaminski is never done when it comes to trading (he's still looking for a third baseman to hit against lefties, and possibly a #4 starter, assuming that Pedro Astacio's OL-leading 2.24 ERA is a mirage), the Hammerheads have nothing left to trade.  Kaminski is reportedly dead-set against moving top prospect Phil Hughes, which leaves him with nothing for trade bait except Four-A players like Juan Cruz, Scott Mathieson, Fernando Nieve and Larry Broadway.  Not to worry, though.  The always-creative one they call "The Shark" believes he can "buy" star players away from other teams by taking on bad 2007 contracts.  And with more than $60 million in cap space next winter, he can certainly afford to do so.

Meanwhile, you can't blame the Las Vegas Flamingos for feeling as if they're the forgotten stepchildren of the BDBL.  Here they are, leading the OL wild card race by two full games, and picking up Cliff Politte and Randy Johnson along the way, and yet if you listen to the endless hype coming out of New Milford, the Blazers already have the wild card wrapped up.

One Vegas insider told me, "If the Blazers hope to make it to the post-season, they'd better set their sights on trying to overtake Corona -- or even the Hammerheads, for that matter -- because New Milford is squarely in our rear-view mirror."

With Cliff Politte now filling the void in their bullpen, the Flamingos consider themselves to be a finished product.  And their recent acquisition of Greg Maddux makes them even more confident that they can hold onto their position at the top of the wild card standings.  But still, they wouldn't be averse to trading newly-acquired farm product Brad Lincoln if it gets them an upgrade somewhere.

Swing over to the Butler Division, and the Corona Confederates appear to have a lock on the division.  And with their recent acquisitions of Bruce Chen, Chad Cordero and Ray Durham, the Confederates believe they have everything they need to maintain the division lead.  However, Corona GM Ed McGowan recently made news by posting star right fielder Vladimir Guerrero on the league's "Selling" forum.  With a contract that runs through the 2008 season, at $16 million per year, don't expect Vlad to be going anywhere, though.

"Vlad would be nice to have," stated one OL GM, "but there are other nice outfielders available for this year, and no one wants to lock up that much money this winter, with the biggest free agent class in history hitting the market.  Corona would have trouble giving Guerrero away for nothing."

In second place, the New Milford Blazers managed to upgrade in right field from Jeff Conine to Brian Giles last chapter, with a little assist from the Marlboro Hammerheads.  They also added Rick Helling and Aaron Small to the bullpen, which they feel is a significant upgrade.

"I don't think we have any glaring holes right now," stated New Milford GM Anthony Peburn, "but that may change after I see how this team responds this chapter."

It's no surprise that no one on the New Milford roster is untouchable.  And the Blazers are said to be very close on a deal that would finally put an end to their incessant Yovani Gallardo pimping on the BDBL forum.  However, with the team's seasonal VORP differential at 132.1, there isn't much wiggle room to add another impact player.

Meanwhile, over in the "other" league...

The Villanova Mustangs are, not surprisingly, confident that they can unseat the Allentown Ridgebacks and win the Higuera Division.  They own the best record in the Eck League, and they've done it without trading any of their beloved prospects.  It's no secret that GM Tony Chamra is in love with his young prospects.  And all the recent problems experienced by former top prospects Joe Blanton, Jesse Crain, Zach Greinke, Rich Harden, Anthony Swarzak, Matt Tuiasosopo, Jeremy Reed, Casey Kotchman and Andy Marte have done nothing to tarnish his optimism.

"I know I've been earmarked as a miser when it comes to my prospects," said Chamra.  "It's part of my philosophy on building a team.  I guess you could say my #1 prospect right now is Chad Billingsley.  There aren't many players I'd trade him for right now, but if you guaranteed me a championship, I'd do it."

While the Mustangs have stood pat throughout the season, many of their competitors have loaded up at the trading table.  Will this strategy eventually bite them in the hind quarters?

"Holding out this long has definitely hurt us," said a clubhouse confidant, "because a majority of the impact players have been traded already."

While Villanova's hitting has been weaker than expected, don't expect to see them make any trades to fortify their offense down the stretch.

The Person Division race is a two-team dog fight between the SoCal Slyme and South Carolina Sea Cats, with the Slyme currently holding a three-game edge.  But don't forget about the Nashville Funkadelic, who are just five games behind in the division, and three behind in the wild card.  The Funk have gone a division-best 15-9 since holding a Chapter Three firesale, in which they dumped Bartolo Colon, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Kevin Mench.  Now, Nashville GM Steve Osborne sees his team right in the thick of the race.

"We hated to part with Griffey," said Osborne.  "He's been a personal favorite for a while, and we rolled the dice on that big contract a couple years ago, and I think it worked out well for us.  But the chance to add a franchise player like (Jason) Bay...we just couldn't pass on that.  Colon was another story, as it was difficult to part with an ace.  But he was also not performing well for us at all.  Considering his contract and 2006 MLB performance, I think we are lucky to move him.  All said, we had a 15-9 month, and made up some ground.  I think we're in decent shape."

As for the front-running Slyme, look for them to make another intra-family trade to fill a few holes this chapter.  After picking up Jason Marquis, Kevin Millar and Sean Casey last chapter, GM Bob Sylvester would still like to add an ace starting pitcher, but he doesn't plan to move any of his top prospects to acquire one.

"I feel kind of iffy on holding onto our lead," Sylvester admitted.  "I had a few opportunities to really upgrade our team, but I don't think our starting pitching is good enough to go really far.  As long as we keep hitting and our relievers stay solid, we'll be fine."

With a VORP differential of 134.2, the Sea Cats have little room to upgrade.  And after adding Andy Pettitte, Kevin Millwood, Scott Shields and Luis Castillo two chapters ago, there really isn't much of a need to upgrade.  South Carolina would still like to add a catcher, as well as a left-handed arm to the bullpen.  And they're willing to trade just about anyone to make it happen.

The least active GM in the BDBL (and perhaps BDBL history) is Akron GM D.J. Sheppard, who has yet to make a single trade this season.  Don't look for that to change any time soon.  One team official said it is "highly doubtful" the Ryche will make any trade before the deadline.

"We've seen a few offers and inquiries along the way," said the official, "but nothing that really was all that interesting to us."

With every other team in their division conceding defeat early this year, the Ryche have simply coasted along to a comfortable lead.  Why trade a Justin Verlander or Stephen Drew, when it's simply not necessary to win the division?  Akron will go into the playoffs with the team they have and take their chances that they can get hot at the right time.

The EL wild card race is completely up for grabs at this point, with the Ridgebacks, Sea Cats, Funkadelic and Hippos all separated by just five games.  As of this writing, the Ridgebacks hold a slim one-game lead.

"Honestly, we never expected to be able to compete with Villanova this year," admitted Allentown GM Tom DiStefano.  "We attribute that to some serious luck early in the season, when we won a bunch of one-run games, and to Mr. Chamra's fondness for his prospects.  Our focus has always been to win as many games as possible and see where that leaves us.  We hope to sneak in with the wild card, but a division title would be even better."

Although DiStefano was shopping ace Johan Santana earlier this year, he says he is now "off that."  And don't bet on the Ridgebacks waving the white flag any time soon, either.  DiStefano's goal is to become the first team in BDBL history to make it to the post-season five years in a row.  But with few marketable commodities left on the Allentown roster, and serious usage issues looming over the final two chapters, the Ridgebacks certainly have their work cut out for them.

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the barrel...

At this point, the seller's market is almost nonexistent.  All of the contending teams are pretty well set heading into the final two chapters, and if there are any non-contenders with impact players still floating around at this point, they should expect to get pennies on the dollar in return.  However, there are still some big names floating out there on the "Selling" forum.

One of the biggest names out there is Chicago MVP candidate Derrek Lee, who was hitting a mind-boggling .334/.429/.735 at the break.  The problem with trading Lee is getting fair value in return -- especially at this point in the season.  The other problem is that nearly every contending team is already set at first base.  In fact, the best fit seems to be in Allentown, where Matt Stairs and Larry Walker share first base duties.  The questions are: Does Allentown have enough to offer in return?  Would DiStefano be willing to sacrifice more of his team's future to hold onto his slim one-game lead?  And would DiStefano and Chicago GM John Gill ever be able to come to an agreement?  (It would be their first trade since 2002.)

Believe it or not, Gill is not ready to concede the division, despite being 13 games out at the all-star break.

"We're still unsure which direction we want to go," he said.  "With Atlanta and Cleveland throwing in the towel and half the season remaining, we may or may not still go for it this year.  And we have the prospects to trade if we do decide to go in that direction."

Another big name remaining is Atlanta's Bobby Abreu.  Abreu nearly went to the Salem Cowtippers in that mega-trade last chapter, but couldn't fit under the VORP cap.  Instead, he remains with the Fire Ants despite considerable interest shown by many teams.  Atlanta has also had considerable interest in reliever Scott Eyre, but they just aren't getting the offers they're looking for.

"We're trying to get someone in return who can help us NEXT year," said an intern working in the Atlanta front office, "but a lot of teams are only offering prospects -- and mostly those in the very lowest levels of the minor leagues.  We also wanted to hang onto these guys for another chapter so that we don't completely suck the rest of this season."

You hear a similar theme coming from the offices of Manchester Irish Rebels GM Jim Doyle, who said, "We need to stay somewhat competitive this year so that we won't lose out on free agent bidding."  Last chapter, Doyle rejected an offer that would have netted a top twenty prospect, along with a cheap young arm, in exchange for three players in their walk years.  And all because of the new rules put in place last year.

"The new rules haven't changed the way we do business at all," said one Ozzie League GM.  "If your big strategy for next year relies heavily upon free agency, you're in big trouble.  Yes, it's a great free agent class, but you're paying top dollar for those guys.  We'd rather secure good players for next year at a discounted salary through trade.  If that trade costs us a higher draft pick or an extra million bucks, so be it.  In the end, we still save a ton of money and end up with better players."

It seems that everyone is looking for pitching next year.  But what else is new?  The Cleveland Rocks are one of those teams, and have been actively shopping a number of players to secure that pitching, including Kyle Farnsworth, Ryan Dempster, Frank Catalanotto, Jacque Jones, Bob Wickman and Dmitri Young.  But so far, no bites.

The Ravenswood Infidels have entertained offers for Tom Glavine, and the Great Lakes Sphinx are still shopping Geoff Jenkins, Tim Hudson and Jimmy Rollins.  Jenkins is rumored to be heading to Southern Cal in exchange for Hanley Ramirez, but he's also been mentioned in rumors involving Curtis Granderson and Adam Wainwright of the Villanova Mustangs.  Jenkins currently ranks among the EL top ten in batting, OBP, slugging, hits, RBIs, doubles and runs created, so he'd be of some use to some contending team.  The New Milford Blazers are scared to death of Bruce Chen, and have spent the past several chapters stockpiling left-handed hitters to match up against him.  In that regard, Jenkins would be a perfect fit, giving them an all-lefty outfield.

Over in Wapakoneta, the Hippos refuse to believe they are out of the race.

"We were two Andruw Jones outfield assists away from sweeping the Sea Cats and being tied for a playoff spot right now," said a Hippos' batboy.  "We are right in the thick of things and will continue to fight for that fourth playoff spot."

Yet despite that claim, there are rumors of impending deals with both the SoCal Slyme and Allentown Ridgebacks.  Todd Jones and Brad Lidge are the team's two biggest trade chits, and it is rumored that the Hippos would trade either one of them if someone would just take Josh Towers off their hands.

Meanwhile, the cupboards are bare in Salem, where plans to hang a seventh red flag on the left field wall have been delayed for at least a year.

"We made a run at it," said a somber GM Mike Glander, "but it just wasn't meant to be this year.  Considering where we began this season, I think we've had a tremendous year.  And we still believe we can reach our goal of finishing above .500.  But I'm afraid that's as far as this team will go in 2006.  It is a very strange feeling to be heading into July without any hope whatsoever of reaching the playoffs, but unfortunately that's where we are."

In New Hope, the Badgers have reportedly received interest in pitcher Daniel Cabrera, but GM Tony Badger remains in love with Cabrera's upside, despite his significant control problems in MLB this season.

"Danny has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball," said Cabrera's girlfriend, Tanya.  "A 98 mph sinker...a 90 mph breaking ball that batters regularly swing and miss at, even when it only travels 58 feet to home plate.  Mmm, mmm, mmm, I could just eat him up."

And finally, over in Bear Country, the question is the same as always: Will the Jamboree ever trade their beloved franchise player, Alex Rodriguez?

"Players with stats similar to A-Rod's consistently get $13-$18 million in the auction," pontificated GM Matt Clemm.  "So to have him at $10 million means he is severely underpaid.  In previous seasons, it made no sense to trade him.  But since he always seems to underperform for us, and because he now only has three years left on his contract, maybe now is the right time."

Clemm restated for the record that he will only trade Rodriguez for "two young, PROVEN starters."  Speaking of young starters, the Jamboree are ecstatic with the development of Francisco Lirano this season, and believe that with Liriano, Jason Hirsch, Edinson Volquez and Homer Bailey, they have the makings of a dominant pitching staff.

Random notes, separated by three dots...

Word out of the Salem accounting office is that the Cowtippers are projecting a $57.2 payroll for 26 players next season.  That leaves just $3.5 million to spend on the best free agent class ever, though fingers are crossed that the team will be released from its obligation to pay Sean Burroughs $4.6 million next year, and $18.3 million over the next three years.  The real eye-opener is Salem's forecasted budget of $60.6 million in 2008, which is earmarked for just 15 players. ... After years of getting beat up by the Ozzie League, the Eck League is finally getting some revenge.  Not only did they win the all-star game, but they went 97-95 in interleague play.

The Blazers are just 7-12 in one-run games this season. ... How much will the Blazers benefit from replacing Jeff Conine with Brian Giles?  Conine created just 27.9 runs in the first half, while Giles created 49.0 during that same timeframe.  That's a difference of 21.1 runs, which translates to roughly two wins.  Two wins could easily mean the difference between playing November baseball and reading about it.

Marlboro's Pedro Astacio not only leads the OL in ERA, but in lowest batting average on balls in play (.222.)  Think there's a correlation? ... How important is team defense?  There is a correlation of .89 between batting average on balls in play and component ERA, which is highly signficant.  The Hammerheads defense leads the league in the former category.

Only 14 runners have attempted to steal against Silicon Valley's tandem of Yadier Molina and David Ross this season.  And only six have been successful. ... The Cowtippers have attempted just nine stolen bases this season, and are eight-for-nine in that category. ... At the other end of the spectrum, the Cleveland Rocks lead the BDBL with 96 stolen bases.  Though with team leader Kenny Lofton (47 SB's, 13 CS) now playing in Marlboro, their free-wheeling days are pretty much a thing of the past.

Only 20% of the base runners attempting to steal against Marlboro ace Jon Garland have been successful. ... And Marlboro's duo of Jason LaRue (45.2%) and Chris Widger (44.4%) lead the league in throwing out runners. ... Salem's Jay Payton and Wapakoneta's Craig Wilson lead the BDBL with 12 outfield assists.

As of this writing, Alex Rodriguez is just seven home runs away from becoming the all-time BDBL leader in home runs.  To do so, though, he'll have to pass teammate Sammy Sosa, who is now the all-time leader after Barry Bonds' year-long absence. ... Kansas' Mike Mussina joined the exclusive BDBL 100-win club this season.  He now has 104.  Ravenswood's Jamie Moyer is just five wins away from the century mark, followed by Kevin Millwood (91 wins), Brad Radke (90) and Javier Vazquez (89.)

The Los Altos Undertakers (686) and Akron Ryche (674) have a ways to go yet before they reach the 700-win club. ... Randy Johnson currently leads the Ozzie League in strikeouts, just just five over New Milford's Chris Carpenter.  If he maintains that lead, it will be the sixth time in eight seasons that Johnson has captured his league's strikeout crown.  (He lost that title to Ben Sheets last season by just two K's.)

For those of you who keep track of such mundane stats, the all-time franchise wins ranking, through Chapter Three, stands at:

1. Salem: 752
2. Corona: 751