Editor's note: With Commissioner Glander
away on vacation, guest columnist Peter "The Commissioner" Gammons supplies this month's FTDOTC column.
Best wishes to Peter for a full recovery.
Riders On the
Storm
By Peter Gammons
Special to bigdaddybaseball.com
June 28
The big Chapter Five trading deadline may
be looming just around the corner, but most of the big names have already switched uniforms. Unless
something drastic changes over the next four weeks, all of the sellers
have sold, and all the buyers have bought. For most teams, it's
simply a matter of riding out the storm and maintaining status quo until the
big November dance.
Look, no one is saying there won't be ANY
trades made down the stretch. Anyone who knows Marlboro GM Ken
"The Shark" Kaminski or New Milford GM Anthony "The Guppy" Peburn knows
better than to make such an outrageous claim. Remember, last year
at this time, I stated that it was a bare market for both buyers and
sellers, and that there would be little action or excitement at the
trading table the rest of the way. Less than two weeks after I
wrote that column, the Blazers stirred up a hornet's nest by dumping every star
player on their roster.
Could history repeat itself this season? Well, over
in Sylmar, the Padawans have gotten off to a humble 8-8 start after
spending most of this past chapter stockpiling talent and fortifying
their lineup with Paul Konerko and Eric Chavez for a big second-half
push to the playoffs. But still trailing the first
place Silicon Valley CyberSox by eight games, and the wild card-leading
Las Vegas Flamingos by seven games, is it too late for them? Could
we conceivably see a drastic reversal ala the '05 Blazers?
"If we're ten games back after the next
chapter, I'd start to worry," says one team official.
Remember, these Padawans were
considered to be the front-runners in their division when this season
began. And it's true that Duel has been a little
distracted in the first half of the season, what with a painful knee
operation and demands on his time due to his second career as a teacher.
But he is now focused and very confident that he can get his team back on track in the
second half.
"If I wasn't confident that I could make
it to the post-season," said Duel, "I wouldn't have mortgaged the future
last chapter."
Duel points to his team's 22-3 record in
the final 25 games of 2005, and believes his team can put together a
similar streak this season. But don't expect to see any more big
names coming to Sylmar, as Duel believes he has everything he needs to
make that playoff push.
Look, when's the last time you saw a team that
is eight games back at the all-star break make a push to compete in this
league? The
answer is never. With the Padawans making all this noise, you'd expect the front-running Silicon Valley CyberSox
to be a little worried. But that's hardly the case. And
that's because Silicon Valley
GM Greg Newgard believes he's playing with house money.
"If we lose a nine-game lead, it'll be
tough to take," stated Newgard, "but we weren't supposed to be in this
position. We were supposed to lose 100 games."
Newgard figures that, at worst, he's
secured a high draft pick in 2007, as well as a $1 million bonus for
winning 80 games. And since that was his only goal heading
into this season, anything beyond that is gravy. After all this franchise
went through last season, battling the Padawans neck-and-neck from beginning to end,
losing the division on a tie-breaker, then losing Game 7 of the Division
Series by one run on a bloop single by Juan Uribe with two outs in the
eighth, seeing the Padawans struggle this season -- and entertain thoughts of breaking up the "best
bullpen ever" -- has been "priceless," says a team insider.
"John (Duel) was absolutely giddy after
reading the pre-season reviews of his team," said the insider. "He
couldn't wait for the commish's season preview. But he's the one
with a sub-.500 record now -- not us."
Like the Padawans, the CyberSox don't
plan to make any bold moves in Chapter Four. After adding
David Wells, Mark Ellis and Eddie Guardado last chapter, Silicon Valley
will merely tie a big knot in that rope, and like the proverbial cat,
hang on tight.
Over in the Benes Division, the Marlboro
Hammerheads are basking in the glow of their BDBL-best 52-28 record.
And while GM Kaminski is never done when it comes to trading (he's still
looking for a third baseman to hit against lefties, and possibly a #4
starter, assuming that Pedro Astacio's OL-leading 2.24 ERA is a mirage), the
Hammerheads have nothing left to trade. Kaminski is reportedly
dead-set against moving top prospect Phil Hughes, which leaves him with
nothing for trade bait except Four-A players like Juan Cruz, Scott Mathieson, Fernando Nieve and Larry Broadway.
Not to worry, though. The
always-creative one they call "The Shark" believes he can "buy" star players away from
other teams by taking on bad 2007 contracts. And with more than $60 million in cap space
next winter, he can certainly afford to
do so.
Meanwhile, you can't blame the Las
Vegas Flamingos for feeling as if they're the forgotten stepchildren of
the BDBL. Here they are, leading the OL wild card race by two full
games, and picking up Cliff Politte and Randy Johnson along the way, and
yet if you listen to the endless hype coming out of New Milford, the Blazers
already have the wild card wrapped up.
One Vegas insider told me, "If the
Blazers hope to make it to the post-season, they'd better set their
sights on trying to overtake Corona -- or even the Hammerheads, for that
matter -- because New Milford is squarely in our rear-view mirror."
With Cliff Politte now filling the void in their bullpen, the Flamingos consider themselves to
be a finished product. And their recent acquisition of Greg Maddux
makes them even more confident that they can hold onto their position at
the top of the wild card standings. But still, they wouldn't be averse to
trading newly-acquired farm product Brad Lincoln if it gets them an
upgrade somewhere.
Swing over to the Butler Division, and
the Corona Confederates appear to have a lock on the division. And
with their recent acquisitions of Bruce Chen, Chad Cordero and Ray
Durham, the Confederates believe they have everything they need to
maintain the division lead. However, Corona GM Ed McGowan recently
made news by posting star right fielder Vladimir Guerrero on the
league's "Selling" forum. With a contract that runs through the
2008 season, at $16 million per year, don't expect Vlad to be going
anywhere, though.
"Vlad would be nice to have," stated one
OL GM, "but there are other nice outfielders available for this year,
and no one wants to lock up that much money this winter, with the
biggest free agent class in history hitting the market. Corona
would have trouble giving Guerrero away for nothing."
In second place, the New Milford Blazers
managed to upgrade in right field from Jeff Conine to Brian Giles last
chapter, with a little assist from the Marlboro Hammerheads. They
also added Rick Helling and Aaron Small to the bullpen, which they feel
is a significant upgrade.
"I don't think we have any glaring
holes right now," stated New Milford GM Anthony Peburn, "but that may
change after I see how this team responds this chapter."
It's no surprise that no one on the New
Milford roster is untouchable. And the Blazers are said to be very
close on a deal that would finally put an end to their incessant Yovani
Gallardo pimping on the BDBL forum. However, with the team's
seasonal VORP differential at 132.1, there isn't much wiggle room to add
another impact player.
Meanwhile, over in the "other"
league...
The Villanova Mustangs are, not
surprisingly, confident that they can unseat the Allentown Ridgebacks
and win the Higuera Division. They own the best record in the Eck
League, and they've done it without trading any of their beloved
prospects. It's no secret that GM
Tony Chamra is in love with his young prospects. And all the
recent problems experienced by former top prospects Joe Blanton, Jesse
Crain, Zach Greinke, Rich Harden, Anthony Swarzak, Matt Tuiasosopo,
Jeremy Reed, Casey Kotchman and Andy Marte have done nothing to tarnish
his optimism.
"I know I've been earmarked as a miser
when it comes to my prospects," said Chamra. "It's part of my
philosophy on building a team. I guess you could say my #1
prospect right now is Chad Billingsley. There aren't many players
I'd trade him for right now, but if you guaranteed me a championship,
I'd do it."
While the Mustangs have stood pat
throughout the season, many of their competitors have loaded up at the
trading table. Will this strategy eventually bite them in the hind
quarters?
"Holding out this long has definitely
hurt us," said a clubhouse confidant, "because a majority of the impact
players have been traded already."
While Villanova's hitting has been weaker
than expected, don't expect to see them make any trades to fortify their
offense down the stretch.
The Person Division race is a two-team
dog fight between the SoCal Slyme and South Carolina Sea Cats, with the
Slyme currently holding a three-game edge. But don't forget about
the Nashville Funkadelic, who are just five games behind in the
division, and three behind in the wild card. The Funk have gone a
division-best 15-9 since holding a Chapter Three firesale, in which they
dumped Bartolo Colon, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Kevin Mench. Now,
Nashville GM Steve Osborne sees his team right in the thick of the race.
"We hated to part with Griffey," said
Osborne. "He's been a personal favorite for a while, and we rolled
the dice on that big contract a couple years ago, and I think it worked
out well for us. But the chance to add a franchise player like
(Jason) Bay...we just couldn't pass on that. Colon was another
story, as it was difficult to part with an ace. But he was also
not performing well for us at all. Considering his contract and
2006 MLB performance, I think we are lucky to move him. All said,
we had a 15-9 month, and made up some ground. I think we're in
decent shape."
As for the front-running Slyme, look for
them to make another intra-family trade to fill a few holes this chapter. After picking up Jason Marquis, Kevin Millar and Sean
Casey last chapter, GM Bob Sylvester would still like to add an ace
starting pitcher, but he doesn't plan to move any of his top prospects
to acquire one.
"I feel kind of iffy on holding onto
our
lead," Sylvester admitted. "I had a few opportunities to really
upgrade our team, but I don't think our starting pitching is good enough
to go really far. As long as we keep hitting and our relievers stay
solid, we'll be fine."
With a VORP differential of 134.2, the
Sea Cats have little room to upgrade. And after adding Andy
Pettitte, Kevin Millwood, Scott Shields and Luis Castillo two chapters
ago, there really isn't much of a need to upgrade. South Carolina
would still like to add a catcher, as well as a left-handed arm to the
bullpen. And they're willing to trade just about anyone to make it
happen.
The least active GM in the BDBL (and
perhaps BDBL history) is Akron GM D.J. Sheppard, who has yet to make a
single trade this season. Don't look for that to change any time soon.
One team official said it is "highly doubtful" the Ryche will make any
trade before the deadline.
"We've seen a few offers and inquiries
along the way," said the official, "but nothing that really was all that
interesting to us."
With every other team in their division
conceding defeat early this year, the Ryche have simply coasted along to
a comfortable lead. Why trade a Justin Verlander or Stephen Drew,
when it's simply not necessary to win the division? Akron will go
into the playoffs with the team they have and take their chances that
they can get hot at the right time.
The EL wild card race is completely up
for grabs at this point, with the Ridgebacks, Sea Cats, Funkadelic and
Hippos all separated by just five games. As of this writing, the
Ridgebacks hold a slim one-game lead.
"Honestly, we never expected to be able
to compete with Villanova this year," admitted Allentown GM Tom
DiStefano. "We attribute that to some serious luck early in the
season, when we won a bunch of one-run games, and to Mr. Chamra's
fondness for his prospects. Our focus has always been to win as
many games as possible and see where that leaves us. We hope to
sneak in with the wild card, but a division title would be even better."
Although DiStefano was shopping ace Johan
Santana earlier this year, he says he is now "off that." And don't
bet on the Ridgebacks waving the white flag any time soon, either.
DiStefano's goal is to become the first team in BDBL history to make it
to the post-season five years in a row. But with few marketable
commodities left on the Allentown roster, and serious usage issues
looming over the final two chapters, the Ridgebacks certainly have their
work cut out for them.
Meanwhile, at the bottom of the
barrel...
At this point, the seller's market is
almost nonexistent. All of the contending teams are pretty well
set heading into the final two chapters, and if there are any
non-contenders with impact players still floating around at this point,
they should expect to get pennies on the dollar in return.
However, there are still some big names floating out there on the
"Selling" forum.
One of the biggest names out there is
Chicago MVP candidate Derrek Lee, who was hitting a mind-boggling
.334/.429/.735 at the break. The problem with trading Lee is
getting fair value in return -- especially at this point in the season.
The other problem is that nearly every contending team is already set at
first base. In fact, the best fit seems to be in Allentown, where
Matt Stairs and Larry Walker share first base duties. The questions
are: Does Allentown have enough to offer in return? Would
DiStefano be willing to sacrifice more of his team's future to hold onto
his slim one-game lead? And would DiStefano and Chicago GM John Gill ever be able to come to an agreement?
(It would be their first trade since 2002.)
Believe it or not, Gill is not ready to
concede the division, despite being 13 games out at the all-star break.
"We're still unsure which direction we
want to go," he said. "With Atlanta and Cleveland throwing in the
towel and half the season remaining, we may or may not still go for it
this year. And we have the prospects to trade if we do decide to
go in that direction."
Another big name remaining is Atlanta's
Bobby Abreu. Abreu nearly went to the Salem Cowtippers in that
mega-trade last chapter, but couldn't fit under the VORP cap.
Instead, he remains with the Fire Ants despite considerable interest
shown by many teams. Atlanta has also had considerable interest in
reliever Scott Eyre, but they just aren't getting the offers they're
looking for.
"We're trying to get someone in return
who can help us NEXT year," said an intern working in the Atlanta front
office, "but a lot of teams are only offering prospects -- and mostly
those in the very lowest levels of the minor leagues. We also
wanted to hang onto these guys for another chapter so that we don't
completely suck the rest of this season."
You hear a similar theme coming from the
offices of Manchester Irish Rebels GM Jim Doyle, who said, "We need to
stay somewhat competitive this year so that we won't lose out on free
agent bidding." Last chapter, Doyle rejected an offer that would
have netted a top twenty prospect, along with a cheap young arm, in
exchange for three players in their walk years. And all because of
the new rules put in place last year.
"The new rules haven't changed the way we
do business at all," said one Ozzie League GM. "If your big
strategy for next year relies heavily upon free agency, you're in big
trouble. Yes, it's a great free agent class, but you're paying top dollar for those guys. We'd rather secure good players for next year at
a discounted salary through trade. If that trade costs us a higher
draft pick or an extra million bucks, so be it. In the end, we
still save a ton of money and end up with better players."
It seems that everyone is looking for
pitching next year. But what else is new? The Cleveland
Rocks are one of those teams, and have been actively shopping a number
of players to secure that pitching, including Kyle Farnsworth, Ryan
Dempster, Frank Catalanotto, Jacque Jones, Bob Wickman and Dmitri Young.
But so far, no bites.
The Ravenswood Infidels have entertained
offers for Tom Glavine, and the Great Lakes Sphinx are still shopping
Geoff Jenkins, Tim Hudson and Jimmy Rollins. Jenkins is rumored to
be heading to Southern Cal in exchange for Hanley Ramirez, but
he's also been mentioned in rumors involving Curtis Granderson and Adam
Wainwright of the Villanova Mustangs. Jenkins currently ranks
among the EL top ten in batting, OBP, slugging, hits, RBIs, doubles and
runs created, so he'd be of some use to some contending team. The
New Milford Blazers are scared to death of Bruce Chen, and have spent
the past several chapters stockpiling left-handed hitters to match up
against him. In that regard, Jenkins would be a perfect fit,
giving them an all-lefty outfield.
Over in Wapakoneta, the Hippos refuse to
believe they are out of the race.
"We were two Andruw Jones outfield
assists away from sweeping the Sea Cats and being tied for a playoff
spot right now," said a Hippos' batboy. "We are right in the thick
of things and will continue to fight for that fourth playoff spot."
Yet despite that claim, there are rumors
of impending deals with both the SoCal Slyme and Allentown Ridgebacks.
Todd Jones and Brad Lidge are the team's two biggest trade chits, and it
is rumored that the Hippos would trade either one of them if someone
would just take Josh Towers off their hands.
Meanwhile, the cupboards are bare in
Salem, where plans to hang a seventh red flag on the left field wall have been
delayed for at least a year.
"We made a run at it," said a somber GM
Mike Glander, "but it just wasn't meant to be this year.
Considering where we began this season, I think we've had a tremendous
year. And we still believe we can reach our goal of finishing
above .500. But I'm afraid that's as far as this team will go in
2006. It is a very strange feeling to be heading into July without
any hope whatsoever of reaching the playoffs, but unfortunately that's
where we are."
In New Hope, the Badgers have reportedly
received interest in pitcher Daniel Cabrera, but GM Tony Badger remains
in love with Cabrera's upside, despite his significant control problems
in MLB this season.
"Danny has some of the nastiest stuff in
baseball," said Cabrera's girlfriend, Tanya. "A 98 mph sinker...a
90 mph breaking ball that batters regularly swing and miss at, even when
it only travels 58 feet to home plate. Mmm, mmm, mmm, I could just
eat him up."
And finally, over in Bear Country, the
question is the same as always: Will the Jamboree ever trade their
beloved franchise player, Alex Rodriguez?
"Players with stats similar to A-Rod's
consistently get $13-$18 million in the auction," pontificated GM Matt
Clemm. "So to have him at $10 million means he is severely
underpaid. In previous seasons, it made no sense to trade him.
But since he always seems to underperform for us, and because he now
only has three years left on his contract, maybe now is the right time."
Clemm restated for the record that he
will only trade Rodriguez for "two young, PROVEN starters."
Speaking of young starters, the Jamboree are ecstatic with the
development of Francisco Lirano this season, and believe that with
Liriano, Jason Hirsch, Edinson Volquez and Homer Bailey, they have the
makings of a dominant pitching staff.
Random notes, separated by
three dots...
Word out of the Salem accounting office
is that the Cowtippers are projecting a $57.2 payroll for 26 players
next season. That leaves just $3.5 million to spend on the best
free agent class ever, though
fingers are crossed that the team will be released from its obligation
to pay Sean Burroughs $4.6 million next year, and $18.3 million over the
next three years. The real eye-opener is Salem's forecasted budget
of $60.6 million in 2008, which is earmarked for just 15 players. ... After years of
getting beat up by the Ozzie League, the Eck League is finally getting
some revenge. Not only did they win the all-star game, but they
went 97-95 in interleague play.
The Blazers are just 7-12 in one-run
games this season. ... How much will the Blazers benefit from replacing
Jeff Conine with Brian Giles? Conine created just 27.9 runs in the
first half, while Giles created 49.0 during that same timeframe.
That's a difference of 21.1 runs, which translates to roughly two wins.
Two wins could easily mean the difference between playing November
baseball and reading about it.
Marlboro's Pedro Astacio not only leads
the OL in ERA, but in lowest batting average on balls in play (.222.)
Think there's a correlation? ... How important is team defense?
There is a correlation of .89 between batting average on balls in play
and component ERA, which is highly signficant. The Hammerheads defense leads the league in the
former category.
Only 14 runners have attempted to steal
against Silicon Valley's tandem of Yadier Molina and David Ross this
season. And only six have been successful. ... The Cowtippers have
attempted just nine stolen bases this season, and are eight-for-nine in
that category. ... At the other end of the spectrum, the Cleveland Rocks
lead the BDBL with 96 stolen bases. Though with team leader Kenny
Lofton (47 SB's, 13 CS) now playing in Marlboro, their free-wheeling
days are pretty much a thing of the past.
Only 20% of the base runners attempting
to steal against Marlboro ace Jon Garland have been successful. ... And
Marlboro's duo of Jason LaRue (45.2%) and Chris Widger (44.4%) lead the
league in throwing out runners. ... Salem's Jay Payton and Wapakoneta's
Craig Wilson lead the BDBL with 12 outfield assists.
As of this writing, Alex Rodriguez is
just seven home runs away from becoming the all-time BDBL leader in home
runs. To do so, though, he'll have to pass teammate Sammy Sosa,
who is now the all-time leader after Barry Bonds' year-long absence.
... Kansas' Mike Mussina joined the exclusive BDBL 100-win club this
season. He now has 104. Ravenswood's Jamie Moyer is just
five wins away from the century mark, followed by Kevin Millwood (91
wins), Brad Radke (90) and Javier Vazquez (89.)
The Los Altos Undertakers (686) and Akron
Ryche (674) have a ways to go yet before they reach the 700-win club.
... Randy Johnson currently leads the Ozzie League in strikeouts, just
just five over New Milford's Chris Carpenter. If he maintains that
lead, it will be the sixth time in eight seasons that Johnson has
captured his league's strikeout crown. (He lost that title to Ben
Sheets last season by just two K's.)
For those of you who keep track of such
mundane stats, the all-time franchise wins ranking, through Chapter
Three, stands at:
1. Salem: 752
2. Corona: 751
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