June, 2006

BDBL Mailbag

I sometimes struggle to come up with topics worth writing about once per month on this page.  So this month, I figured I'd leave it up to you to decide.  What topics are at the forefront of your minds as we head into the second half of this exciting 2006 season?  Let's find out.

Bi-Curious from California: Who is the best-looking GM in the BDBL?

You see, this is what I get for asking for "any and all questions."

I decided to let my wife answer this one.  I showed her the pictures of all the guys on the web site, and asked her which one (besides me, of course) is the handsomest.

Her response: "You're all a bunch of dorks."

Vinny from da Bronx: Too part question.  Yo, do you tink stinkin' Randy Johnson will ever be wort $11 million next year?  Or is dat damn rat bastard gonna suck all year for doz Vegas fans next year?  Second part: Is you really dat smart, dat you knew Johnson wood finally showed his age and break down so bad?  Did you pull a fast one on dat Flamingos guy and dump the Big Crapper at da perfect time?

Yes, I fooled everyone, didn't I?  I even managed to influence all the leading baseball prognosticators.  Coming into this season, here were some of the 2006 projections for the Big Unit:

PECOTA: 224.2 IP, 204 H, 39 BB, 192 K, 3.24 ERA
Ron Shandler: 203 IP, 180 H, 48 BB, 185 K, 3.59 ERA
Bill James: 218 IP, 178 H, 55 BB, 263 K, 3.05 ERA

Note: PECOTA also gave Johnson a 1% collapse rate (i.e. the percent chance that his EqERA would increase at least 25% relative to his three-year baseline EqERA.)

When I traded the big guy, I fully expected him to contend for an AL Cy Young award in 2006.  I think his struggles since that trade have taken everyone by surprise.  For some reason, we've gotten to the point where we're now shocked when a 42-year-old pitcher doesn't perform just as well as he did in his early 30's.  We've been spoiled by the likes of Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds and Johnson himself.  Perhaps the big guy is finally starting to show his age.  Or perhaps it's just early, and he'll bounce back in no time.  No one really knows what will happen the rest of the way.  Not even you, Vinny.

J.Sickels from the Midwest: Do any of you guys use my info for drafting purposes?  Are there any future prospect evaluators in the BDBL?

Let me tell you a little story, J.

Back in the early-to-mid 90's, I dabbled in the stock market.  It began with a simple Fidelity fund, and a few stocks recommended by a friend of a friend.  Next, I bought a subscription to Money magazine.  Then, I bought a few books on how to buy stocks.  Then, I began making regular trips to the library to look up the latest financial statements for companies I was targeting.  I had a huge spreadsheet filled with complex formulas that I was certain would lead to more accurate predictions of the future.

After a while, I discovered that I got to be pretty good at it.  Many of the stocks I picked sky-rocketed in value over a very short period of time.  I would sell one stock, and buy another, then watch as that decision paid big dividends as well.  I began to think I had found my calling.  All those years I had wasted pursuing a career in the technical field, when I should have been studying finance instead!  I began giving advice to friends and family (whether they asked for it or not), telling them which stocks they should purchase immediately.  I added a page to my fantasy baseball web site that gave advice on buying stocks, and tracked the performance of all my past picks.  Somehow, I thought, I had stumbled upon some untapped ability within myself that I never knew existed.

Then, one day, my wife was flipping through the stations when she came across an interview with the CEO of some obscure technology company.  She liked the guy, and thought he had some pretty neat ideas.  Without doing any sort of research whatsoever, she took a quarter of her 401(k) money and bought stock in this guy's company.  That investment more than tripled over the next 18 months.

It was then that I figured out that I didn't possess any special, psychic financial ability.  The fact was, everyone was doing well in the stock market.  It was the mid-90's, for crying out loud.  Soon, I began taking losses, just like everyone else.  And soon after that, I canceled my subscription to Money, deleted my big spreadsheet, and took all my money out of individual stocks and put it into index funds.  That's where it still resides today.

I see many, many parallels between the stock market of the mid-90's and the baseball prospecting market of today.  It seems as though everyone believes he is an expert in the field of baseball prospecting these days.  Every ten minutes, a new web site pops up on the internet, created by some guy living in his mother's basement who is more than willing to share his opinions on minor leaguers (usually for a small monthly, automatically-recurring fee.)  These guys all believe they have the ability to predict the future using nothing but complex formulas on a spreadsheet.  And they all believe their formula is better than anyone else's.

But like my adventures in stock-picking, these guys all suffer from a delusion created by selective memory.  They overemphasize their successes and sweep their failures under the rug.  The fact is that no one owns a stellar track record when it comes to forecasting MLB numbers for minor league players.  Major League teams pay an awful lot of money to scouts and analysts whose sole job is to forecast MLB ability for amateur and minor league players.  And the success rates of those paid professionals aren't that much better than that guy sitting in his mother's basement.

Baseball prospecting isn't exactly a crapshoot.  There are certain things you can look for in a prospect to bump up the odds a little in your favor.  But all that means is that the odds of that stud prospect becoming a stud Major Leaguer increase from 10% to 12%.  In this way, baseball prospecting is a lot like horse racing.  But even the best tipsters lose more often than they win.  And even the best prospects with the greatest odds of success (Sean Burroughs, Rick Ankiel, Jesse Foppert, Brandon Phillips, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Anderson, etc.) fail more often than you'd expect.

As I demonstrated on this page a few years ago, the odds of a TOP hitting prospect becoming a completely useless waste of roster space are about 20/80.  And the odds for pitchers are even worse, at roughly 50/50.  And last year on this page, I demonstrated that the odds of a top amateur prospect making an impact on your BDBL roster are even greater.  If you happen to hit the jackpot on the small minority of prospects who actually become all-stars, it doesn't make you an expert.  It just means you got lucky.

Getting back to your question, J., I visit your web site almost daily, and I suspect that nearly every member of the BDBL does as well.  (Given that it's free information, you'd be foolish not visit your web site regularly -- if for no other reason than to be aware of what your fellow owners are reading.)  I also used to purchase your book every year, up until this past year.  But after a while I realized that your advice was no better than the advice available (often freely) through other sources.  So I've taken the money that I used to spend on your book and I put it into index funds.  Sorry, big guy.

Curious: How much money do you spend per year doing research for your fantasy team?

I didn't realize how much I spent until I added it up just now.  I'm embarrassed to admit it, but I spent a grand total of $290.23 in the past year on books and web sites alone.  I'm sure I'm forgetting something.  Please don't tell my wife.

C. Carpenter from St. Louis: Who are the top 10 pitchers and hitters shaping up to be in next year's auction?  Will there be lots of money to spend?

Thinking about next year already, Chris?  We've still got half a season left to play this year!

It's really too early to even look at who might be available next January, as there is still four months of MLB season left to play.  But since you asked...

* As of 5/15

The amazing thing here is that I had to go all the way down to the 62nd-ranked pitcher in VORP in order to find 10 pitchers that are free agents in '07.  And yes, that is Duaner Sanchez in the top ten.  (Like I said, it's early.)

A few of the names missing from these lists: Todd Helton, Mark Kotsay, Jason Varitek, J.D. Drew, Brad Radke, Craig Biggio, Eric Chavez, Ivan Rodriguez, Brian Giles, Manny Ramirez, Ben Sheets, Chipper Jones, Brad Lidge, Bobby Abreu, David Ortiz and C.C. Sabathia.

Did I mention it's early?

Confused in Texas: Guarding the lines. What are your views, and when do you do it? Every time I try it, I seem to give up a double in the gap.

I think this is another one of those cases where selective memory plays a big role in perception.  If we guard the line ten times, and nine times the batter lines out to the third baseman, and one time the ball is roped down the line for a double, the only thing we'll remember is that double.  Why?  Because it's unexpected.

The same goes for stolen bases on a pitch-out, and pitchers coming up with big hits at the plate, and all these other wacky things that seem to happen far too often in DMB.  Yet every time one of these "flaws in the software" is investigated, it always turns out that these events occur exactly as often as should be expected.

The only reason to ever guard the lines is to prevent a double down the line.  According to the DMB documentation, guarding the lines "reduces the number of ground balls down the line that go for doubles and triples in the corner, but increases the number of singles hit through the hole."  So, in your example of a ball hit into the gap, there is really nothing you can do to prevent that from happening.

I usually don't guard the lines before the 7th inning unless I'm facing a really good pitcher, and every run is precious.  And I usually don't guard the lines unless the batter at the plate is a threat to hit a double or triple.  There's no point in giving a guy like Luis Castillo better odds of slapping a single through the hole.

Buyer's Remorse: I went "Type H" on a free agent in the auction last winter, and he's stinking up the joint (in MLB) this year.  Please tell me I'm not alone.

Don't worry, Buyer's, misery loves company.  The reason why free agents seldom make good long-term investments is because you're paying top dollar for what is usually peak performance.  Most of these guys are coming off of career years in their early-to-mid 30's.  There's only one direction for their careers to go.

In this year's Draft Day Preview, I showed that Type H free agents have not fared well at all in Year 2 throughout BDBL auction history.  Yet despite that warning, we set a record for "Type H" free agents this year.  How has this group performed so far?

* Projected VORP at current pace, thru 5/17

As you can see, 22 of the 37 Type H free agents from this past auction have performed worse this year than they did last year -- in some cases, FAR worse.  You think that will make a difference at next year's auction?  Please.

Outside Looking In: Do you think if I start disagreeing with absolutely every opinion you put into print, I might gain enough popularity to get a trade offer?

Without a doubt, Outside.  Look how well that strategy worked for Marazita and DiStefano.

Toe, from the Sugar Cane Fields: What BDBL franchise has had the most busts with top prospects?

It depends on what you mean by "bust", and what you mean by "top prospect."  For the sake of argument, let's look at the #1 farm draft picks made over the past seven years, and the total MLB WARP1 of those picks:

Are you as surprised by these results as I am?  Yes, the Los Altos Undertakers, with their long history of farm club success, have had more first-round flops than any other team in the league.  Their #1 picks: Chad Hermanson, Brad Baisley, Gabe Gross, John Buck and Justin Upton.  Of course, Upton should ensure that the Undertakers don't remain at the bottom of this list for much longer.

Silicon Valley's #1 picks, by the way: Marcus Giles (28.7 VORP), Barry Zito (42.6), Mike Stodolka (0), Eric Hinske (11.6), Corwin Malone (0), Jeremy Hermida (0.8) and Mitch Einertson (0).  So, even the best team in the league has seen four of their seven #1 picks return less than 1 career WARP1 so far.

Ozzie League fan: How about an analysis of talent transfer between leagues? Almost all trades this season have been interleague, and that has to have some affect on league strength in 2006 and the future.

If we use VORP as a measuring stick, 601.8 VORP points have been traded from the OL to the EL since the start of the off-season, while 717.1 points have gone the other way.  That's a difference of 115.3, which is pretty significant (but not significant enough to exceed our in-season VORP cap.)

Paul Bunyan, Minnesota: Who really is the Johnny Appleseed of the BDBL?

Paul, that should be quite obvious by now.  Despite what you've read in the polls, the Salem Cowtippers have distributed more talent from their farm club than any other team in the BDBL, using any measurement or criteria you could think of.  As much as people apparently hate to admit it, that's just a fact.

As has been pointed out, though, it's not really anything worth bragging about.  Trading highly-touted prospects for immediate value is just one of many strategies used to build a franchise and forge success.  I'll leave it up to you to decide how successful that strategy has been.

No Witty Fake Name Given: How do left-handed starting pitchers fare in the BDBL (versus expected results) as compared to right-handers? My GUESS would be that the lefties underperform as compared to the righties because it's so easy to platoon against them.

Your guess is correct, No-Wit, though the difference in DMB performance between lefties and righties probably isn't nearly as large as you suspect.  First, the raw totals:

Now, by rate stats:

And finally, by percentage of increase (BDBL over MLB):

So, across the board pitchers of both handedness fare worse in the BDBL than they do in MLB.  More than likely, this is because of contraction from 30 MLB teams to 24 BDBL teams.  Lefties fare slightly worse