November, 2006

The (Not So) Big 2006 BDBL Playoffs Preview

Normally at this time of year, I write a ginormous article consisting of roughly 50,000 words previewing the upcoming BDBL playoffs.  I dissect each match-up in the Division Series in intricate detail, looking for advantages or disadvantages between the teams in question.  I dive down deep into the statistical record, and uncover previously-hidden quirks that may hold the key to each series.  I explore in exhaustive detail how the playoff teams performed against each other during the regular season -- both on a team and individual basis.  Finally, I boil down all the numbers and make carefully-considered predictions based on the reams of data I produced.

Well, not anymore.

If seven years of BDBL post-season experience has taught me anything, it is this: None of that matters.  The one and only thing that matters is which team's players will perform best in the clutch during three very short series.  NOTHING else matters.  You could form a team filled with Hall of Fame-bound all-stars, but if those players have a bad series, your dreams of post-season glory will be over quicker than you can say, "Brian Roberts."  Trust me.  I know.

Don't believe me?  Check out this chart:

There are basically two ways of determining the "best" team in any given year: wins, or (I believe more accurately) runs differential.  In seven years, the team with the most wins during the regular season won the championship only twice (and one of those years, that team had to "bend the rules" in order to do so.)  And in seven years, the team that dominated their competition by the greatest number of runs during the regular season won the championship a grand total of once.  (And even then, that team entered the ninth inning of Game Seven with a tied score.)

Not only doesn't the best team always win the BDBL championship, but it's actually become a RARITY.  And that's certainly not good news for fans of the Villanova Mustangs (BDBL-high 101 wins) or Akron Ryche (BDBL-high 165 runs differential) this year.

It took me seven years to come to the realization that these lengthy playoff previews are a giant waste of time.  Not only do none of the stats I publish matter all that much, but because these articles are so long, no one reads them!  (Except the playoff teams.  And even then, they only read the part that pertains to them.)

So this year, I've decided to change it up a bit.  Instead of doing my usual statistical deep-dive, I will simply honor the playoff teams by writing about how they got here in the first place.  Because after all, getting to this point is the biggest accomplishment of all.

Akron R˙che

The Akron R˙che have now made the playoffs five times in the past six years.  And for the seventh time in eight seasons, the R˙che finished with a record above .500.  It has been a remarkable run of success, but it is even more remarkable once you realize that GM D.J. Sheppard has accomplished this feat while making hardly any trades at all.  More often than not, trading is necessary because our first impressions were wrong.  Players perform worse than expected, holes in the roster form unexpectedly, free agents cost more than anticipated, and reliable players become unreliable overnight.  But Sheppard's first instincts have been so accurate, and he's made so few mistakes, that his need to trade simply hasn't been nearly as pressing as it has for most GM's.

It all started with the best first instinct of all: Sheppard's selection of Pedro Martinez with the 11th overall pick in the inaugural BDBL draft of 1999.  Martinez's career numbers in the BDBL are legendary, and this year has been no exception: 20 wins (tops in the EL), a 2.60 ERA (also #1), 167 hits (just 6.4 per 9, tops in the EL) and 55 walks (2.1 per nine, 9th in the EL) allowed in 235+ innings, and 205 strikeouts (ranked #5.)  In all likelihood, Martinez is on the verge of winning his FOURTH BDBL Cy Young award (only one fewer than BDBL legend Randy Johnson.)  And the timing of his contract, which expires at the end of this season, could not have been planned any better.

Akron has never been at a loss when it comes to quality pitching, and Sheppard has consistently excelled at finding quality pitchers in the most unlikely of places.  This season, Akron benefited from a temporary career resurgence by Jeff Weaver (15-14, 4.74 ERA), a solid performance from a former swingman, Bronson Arroyo (14-14, 5.08 ERA), and the free agent signing of Javier Vazquez (14-9, 4.44 ERA with 220 K's).

Offensively, the R˙che appeared to be in trouble when their top hitter, Scott Rolen, was injured in MLB '05.  Not only did Akron lose their best hitter, but they had to pay a $5 million penalty just to get rid of him.  And their second-highest-paid hitter, Mark Kotsay (.275/.339/.407), was hardly worth his $8 million salary anymore.

Fortunately for the R˙che, those holes were filled with three surprising break-out performances by Chone Figgins (.293/.354/.422), Jonny Gomes (.350/.419/.614 with 53 extra-base hits in just 394 AB's) and the legendary JHonny Peralta (.315/.390/.593).  Those three all-stars produced 327.3 runs created at a combined salary of just $700,000 this season.

Prior to Opening Day, Sheppard made a rare appearance on the trading forum by hooking up with his favorite trading partner, Tom DiStefano.  In exchange for two minor league prospects, Akron parted with valuable middle reliever David Riske, receiving $1.1 million in salary cap relief as a bonus.  Next, Akron agreed with the Marlboro Hammerheads to a swap of Brian Giles for Todd Helton and Lance Niekro (which saved Akron another million.)

The acquisition of Helton (.319/.433/.535 with 118.7 RC) filled the one remaining hole in the Akron lineup.  The R˙che then went into the auction with $12.5 million to spend, and only seven spots to fill on their 35-man roster.  The only real hole remaining was a #4 starting pitcher, and they filled that hole immediately by using the #2 pick in the second round to acquire Vazquez.

The remainder of their money was used to simply fill in spots on the bench (Craig Wilson) and in the bullpen (Jay Witasick.)  As soon as that draft ended, Sheppard's job as GM was all but done.  With the exception of a few mid-season free agent signings, he did nothing as GM of the R˙che except sit back and enjoy the ride.

Incredibly enough, the R˙che were the only team in the BDBL that reached 900 runs scored this season.  They also outscored their opponents by a BDBL-high 165 runs this season.  And they owned the second-best "Pythagorian" record in the league (96-64, one win less than the Sea Cats.)  But as we've seen in the past, all of that goes out the window in the playoffs.  The key for Akron is their ace.  If the "real" Pedro Martinez shows up, and pitches as well in his final series in an Akron uniform as he did in his first, then the R˙che will have a great chance of advancing to the championship series.  If Pedro turns in a performance like Roger Clemens in the 2005 World Series, he'll be remembered as merely a great BDBL pitcher who never won a ring.

Corona Confederates

It is hard to believe that Ed McGowan has only been the owner of the Corona Confederates franchise since the middle of 2005.  This team has been completely transformed since he took over, and yet two important relics from the franchise's dark and sordid past remain.

First, there is Joe Mauer (.328/.388/.462, 92.8 RC), the 2006 OL batting champion who was famously acquired from the Wapakoneta Hippos for Juan "Stick Boy" Cruz so many years ago.  Then, there is David Ortiz (.315/.429/.632), the Ozzie League's leader in slugging, RBIs (151), extra base hits (89), intentional walks (25), runs created (158.5) and RC/27 (10.5), who was picked up as a flier for $3.5 million in the league's first free agent auction.

Once you get past those two, however, it's all Ed McGowan.  On the mound, #1 ace John Smoltz (18-8, 3.17 ERA) is the result of McGowan's brilliant trade with the Sylmar Padawans last season (acquired in exchange for Mark Buehrle.)  Noah Lowry (15-5, 3.93) was also acquired via trade last season, from the Silicon Valley CyberSox, in exchange for Odalis Perez.  Brett Myers (14-9, 3.10) was another McGowan trade acquisition in 2005, acquired (along with Manny Ramirez) from the Chicago Black Sox for Aramis Ramirez and Mike Mussina.  And Vladimir Guerrero (.310/.392/.584, 117.4 RC) was acquired from Chicago this past winter in exchange for Ramirez.

Julio Lugo (.291/.355/.409 with 97.9 RC) was one of McGowan's first free agent signings in 2005, and Brad Wilkerson (.279/.378/.483 with 103.3 RC) was Corona's first pick in the second round of the '06 draft.  Closer Billy Wagner (8-1, 1.88 ERA, 6 SVs, with just 41 hits allowed in 81+ innings) was signed for $8 million this winter -- a BDBL post-auction record salary for a reliever.

Prior to the annual trading deadline, the Confederates made one final push for the playoffs by adding Bruce Chen (5-3, 4.38 ERA in 61+ IP), Chad Cordero (0-3, 3.12 ERA in 17+ IP), Bobby Abreu (.331/.403/.519), Ray Durham (.264/.347/.349), Julio Franco (.188/.278/.188) and Ugueth Urbina (1-0, 1.14 ERA in 23+ IP.)

While this franchise has seen the playoffs many times before, this is the first go-around for Ed McGowan.  And with so many new faces resulting from so many great trades and free agent signings, there is no doubt that this is HIS team.  The Confederates scored an OL-high 853 runs this season by walking to first (a league-high 665 times -- 54 times more than the next-best team) and whacking doubles into the gaps (a league-high 401 times -- 50 times more than the next-best team.)  If they follow that formula in the post-season, and if Chad Cordero can step up into the closer's role better than he did as a member of the Cowtippers, the Confederates should advance far.

Marlboro Hammerheads

No one who knows Ken "The Shark" Kaminski is surprised to learn that of the ten players in Marlboro's Opening Day lineup (two platoons), only one remains.  And of the five pitchers in his Opening Day rotation, only two remain:

The question is: after all that tinkering and shuffling, how much better are the present-day Hammerheads than the Opening Day Hammerheads?  Well, in terms of VORP, the players on the right total 116.4 points more than the players on the left.  And the current lineup certainly has more power than the original lineup.  And the #1 starter just happens to be the best pitcher in baseball.  So, yes, all of Sharky's tinkering did actually make a difference in the end.

Marlboro finished with an 81-79 record in 2005, just five games out of first place in the Benes Division.  Throughout all of that year, Sharky wheeled and dealed at his usual frantic pace, trying to scratch and claw his way into the playoffs.  So his focus on the 2006 season didn't really begin in earnest until his chase for the playoffs ended last year.

Last winter, the feeding frenzy began when the Great Lakes Sphinx unexpectedly placed franchise shortstop Derek Jeter on the block.  At the time, Jeter was considered to be a bit of a risk, as he was due to be paid $10 million per year through the 2009 season.  But never one to back away from risk, Sharky took on that contract and upgraded his shortstop (from Jimmy Rollins) in the process.  Jeter hit .279/.361/.448 in 78 games for the Hammerheads before being swapped at mid-season for free-agent-to-be Miguel Tejada (.287/.320/.446.)  So, in the span of just six months, Kaminski was able to upgrade his shortstop position TWICE, while ridding himself of any future salary commitment.

But Jeter wasn't even the most important player involved in that trade.  Also coming to Marlboro (in exchange for Tim Hudson) was Jon Garland.  Garland (20-8, 2.84) would turn into a Cy Young candidate for the Hammerheads, finishing first in the OL in wins and ERA, and among the top five in OBP and SLG% against, while Hudson would be a bitter disappointment for the Sphinx.

Next, Sharky turned his attention to the bullpen.  First, he acquired David Riske from the Allentown Ridgebacks in exchange for Brett Tomko and two role players.  Riske (6.23 ERA in just 13 innings) was then shipped off four weeks later in exchange for the more reliable Brian Fuentes (2.10 ERA, with just 39 hits allowed in 64+ innings.)  Next, former closer Tom Gordon was traded (along with two others) to the SoCal Slyme in exchange for two full-time starters: Jason LaRue (.223/.307/.328) and Todd Walker (.269/.387/.404.)  That gave Marlboro a full infield heading into the draft -- an enviable position for any team.

Next on the Kaminski agenda was finding a taker for J.D. Drew's $13 million salary.  The Ridgebacks came calling, offering Todd Helton's $10 million salary in exchange, and throwing in reliever Aki Otsuka as well.  Of course, it would also cost Marlboro prospects Scott Olsen and Eric Hurley, but it seemed a small price to pay for shedding $3 million in salary.  Days later, Helton was shipped of to Akron for Brian Giles (.275/.385/.384 as a Hammerhead.)  And though Giles' salary was $1.5 million higher than Helton's, he (unlike Helton) gave Marlboro full-time production against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers.  But more importantly, Giles filled the center field hole and gave the Hammerheads a complete starting lineup heading into the draft.

With only $11.6 million in spending money, Marlboro still needed a #4 starter, a bullpen arm or two, and a few platoon players.  Kaminski decided to stay away from the auction, where players were fetching outrageous salaries due to a record influx of bonus money.  Instead, he planned to grab a prime starting pitcher with his #3 pick in the second round of the draft.  But when Jason Schmidt was unexpectedly selected in the first round, Kaminski's pre-draft plan went out the window.  He was then forced to make a decision between selecting a mediocre starter for the 2006 season (such as Matt Morris) or grabbing a highly-sought-after player for the 2007 season (such as Scott Rolen, Curt Schilling or Jim Thome), then trading that player to fill a team need.  Obviously, Sharky being Sharky, he went with option "B."

Kaminski grabbed Rolen with the #3 pick of the second round, and roughly eight weeks later, he was traded (along with Carlos Zambrano and Craig Hansen) to the Chicago Black Sox in exchange for Ben Sheets (10-7, 3.58 ERA for Marlboro), Manny Ramirez (.279/.369/.575 in 132 games) and Matt Wise (5-4, 3.02 ERA, 1 SV.)  Kaminski's pre-season decision paid off in a big, big way.

Prior to the Chapter Four deadline, Kaminski's dorsal fin began to itch, and another trading convulsion began, resulting in five trades involving 17 different players.  The biggest trade among that group was a three-way trade with the New Milford Blazers and Cleveland Rocks that was announced just one minute before the deadline and took "all of eight minutes" to negotiate, according to Kaminski.  This trade replaced Giles in center field with a platoon of Kenny Lofton (.391/.437/.453 for MAR) and Jason Michaels (.294/.389/.431.)  Critics blasted this trade from Marlboro's perspective, because it allowed one of their top competitors in the Ozzie League to upgrade from Jeff Conine to Giles in right field.  Sure enough, that team -- the New Milford Blazers -- will now be facing the Hammerheads in the Division Series.

The year-end Chapter Five trading deadline saw even more action in Marlboro, as five more trades were made, involving 25 players in total.  Brian Schneider (.216/.279/.342) replaced LaRue at the catcher's position, and Jae Seo (1.80 ERA in just 5 IP) was added to the pitching staff in a trade with the Nashville Funkadelic.

But the biggest acquisition of the year was the addition of Johan Santana.  In 11 games for Marlboro, Santana went 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA. In 72+ innings, he allowed just 51 hits and 8 walks.  Placido Polanco (.297/.345/.422) and Larry Walker (.269/.387/.404) were also added in that blockbuster trade with the Ridgebacks, in which Marlboro parted with Barry Zito, Todd Walker, Moises Alou and Mark Sweeney.

In total, Kaminski made 23 trades since the end of the 2005 season, involving 87 players.  Will all that shuffling finally result in a championship for Kaminski and the Marlboro Hammerheads?  Or will Kaminski end up wishing he had made one less trade?

Oddly enough, after all that wheeling and dealing, the Hammerheads ranked just ninth in the BDBL in runs scored during the final two chapters of the season.  The new-look Hammerheads hit just .259/.323/.412 as a team, compared to .262/.340/.416 before all those trades were made.  On the hill, Marlboro ranked just 6th in the OL in ERA (4.07) during the final two chapters, compared to their first-place ranking (3.63 ERA) in the first four chapters.  So, while Marlboro certainly appears to a better team on paper than they were on Opening Day, the statistics certainly don't reflect that.  It will be interesting to see which team shows up in November.

New Milford Blazers

Yes, the New Milford Blazers.  I was beginning to think the day would never come when I would be including the New Milford Blazers in a "Playoffs Preview."  And yet, here we are.

By now, the story of how New Milford snuck into the post-season picture in 2006 is legendary (or infamous; take your pick.)  The Blazers were favored to compete for a playoffs spot in 2005, but thanks to a series of bumbling miscues by both their GM and manager, New Milford found themselves trailing the OL wild card leader by five games on the 4th of July.  Then, just four days after they finally made a trade to shore up the team's biggest weakness (its starting rotation), the Blazers' backfield inexplicably pulled a reverse, and began selling off every star player on the roster not nailed to the floor.  It was a colossal sell-off of epic proportions, unlike any other in league history.  And needless to say, it ruffled more than a few feathers.

Because the 2005 Blazers' roster was so packed with star-caliber impact players, that firesale burned brighter, and caused more smoke damage, than any other firesale in league history.  All-stars Melvin Mora and Brad Lidge were the first to go.  Kevin Mench, Kent Mercker, Juan Pierre, Zach Greinke and Mike Hampton soon followed them out the door.

Despite losing so much talent, the Blazers still appeared to be in good position to compete.  Jason Bay filled the hole in the lineup created by Mora's departure, and Justin Douchesharer filled Lidge's shoes in the bullpen.

But GM Anthony Peburn was bound and determined to sell off every useful player on his roster, regardless of whether he received fair value in return.  So in his next trade, he traded MVP candidate Todd Helton to the Allentown Ridgebacks in exchange for Chris Crapuano, J.T. Blow and two fliers for the '06 season.  Oh, and he threw in Orlando Hernandez and Aki Otsuka, just to make it even.  Helton, Hernandez and Otsuka then carried the Ridgebacks to their second BDBL trophy over yours truly, instantly causing a Blazers' ally to be replaced with an enemy.

Before the deadline passed, Peburn also disposed of all-star closer Tom Gordon, dealing him to the Marlboro Hammerheads in exchange for a basket of assorted fruits and jellies.

And thus, the great New Milford Purge of 2005 (the first of many, I'm sure) was history.  In the end, the Blazers were left with a boatload of salary cap money and two extremely valuable franchise players in Danny Haren and Jason Bay.  With those two players under contract through the end of the decade, and with enough salary cap space to make a few savvy free agent signings, the Blazers franchise was well-positioned for a long-term run of success.

But that's not the way Peburn saw it.  He took one look at this roster in the winter of '06 and decided that this was a one-shot team.  After years upon years of embarrassing failure, Peburn decided that this team had only one shot at success before plummeting back into that abyss.  So he began the second phase of "Operation Shock and Awe," and methodically began to sabotage his franchise's future in exchange for that one shot at post-season glory.

First, he traded his franchise pitcher, Haren, to the Silicon Valley CyberSox, in exchange for Chris Carpenter (20-11, 3.66 ERA) -- a one-year rental.  Next, he traded Crapuano (a full-time #3 starter with a $1 million salary and no contract) to the Bear Country Jamboree in exchange for part-time free-agent-to-be Chipper Jones (.281/.407/.548) and two role players.  Just like that, two young, extremely cheap, quality starting pitchers were expunged from New Milford's roster.

But that was only the beginning.

Next, Peburn placed a $20.5 million wager on 44-year-old free agent Roger Clemens (after he had spent weeks bad-mouthing Clemens in a lame effort to drive down his asking price.)  The Blazers "won" the bidding war for Clemens (16-11, 3.14 ERA) at $19.5 million, ensuring that they would begin the 2007 BDBL season with a $19.5 million hole in their salary cap.

As if that weren't enough damage to the future of the Blazers franchise, Peburn then did the unthinkable, and traded his new franchise player, Bay, in exchange for two players with ugly contracts: Ken Griffey, Jr. (.296/.363/.539 as a Blazer) and Bartolo Colon (8-9, 5.38 ERA.)  Swapping Griffey for Bay (.278/.389/.597 for New Milford) in the lineup was a slight downgrade, but it gave the Blazers a much-needed left-handed hitter.  And Colon wasn't much of an upgrade, statistically, over #4 starter Johnny "Way Back" Wasdin, but he gave the Blazers some desperately-needed innings in the starting rotation.  Bay is among the top three most valuable commodities in the BDBL, and yet all the Blazers got for him was a more balanced lineup, and some filler innings at the back of the rotation.

Later, the Blazers upgraded from Jeff Conine to Brian Giles (.304/.421/.474) in their outfield, with an assist from their Division Series rival, Ken Kaminski.  Noting that his roster still had a few players who might be of some value to his franchise's future, Peburn made sure he added a few tons of dirt over the Blazers' grave by trading away Freddy Sanchez, Alfonso Soriano, Justin Douchesharer and the incomparable Yovani Gallardo.  In exchange, Brian Roberts (.264/.328/.431 for NMB) replaced Soriano at second, adding an additional $8.5 million in untradeable salary to the New Milford roster for 2007.

Given the amount of talent the Blazers sacrificed this year, the amount of salary and bad contracts they agreed to take, and the amount of risk they took in signing Clemens, it is absolutely amazing that this team just barely snuck into the playoffs during the final week of the season.  But now that they're here, anything less than a BDBL championship for the Blazers would truly be a tragedy.

South Carolina Sea Cats

When GM Tony DeCastro traded Vladimir Guerrero to the Chicago Black Sox for Andruw Jones in the winter of 2004, it seemed to be a bit of a risk, as Jones was owed $70 million over the remainder of his contract.  But Jones more than earned his salary this season by hitting .245/.305/.576 with a league-leading 61 home runs and 166 RBIs.

Hank Blalock was drafted way back in 2001, and Nick Johnson was acquired the following season in a controversial (was there ever any other kind?) trade with the Stamford Zoots.  At the time of Johnson's acquisition, it was assumed that the Sea Cats were on the verge of a long-term dynasty built around the foundation of those two can't-miss prospects.  But it wasn't until this season that the team finally received all-star performances from both Blalock (.323/.414/.503 with 106.8 RC) and Johnson (.290/.398/.476 with 96.2 RC).

The Sea Cats had $33.6 million to spend in the free agent auction this winter, and they used $11.5 million of that to bolster their offense further by signing Gary Sheffield (.285/.383/.502 with 109.3 RC.)

On the mound, the team's leader in wins, Kenny Rogers (17-5, 3.63 ERA), was picked up in the 2005 auction at the bargain-basement salary of $3.5 million.  Gustavo Chacin (15-8, 4.19 ERA) was acquired from the New Milford Blazers in 2005 (pre-franchise-burning dump phase.)

In Chapter Three, the Sea Cats took two bold steps toward the playoffs when they traded Curt Schilling, Lastings Milledge, Wes Bankston and Josh Barfield to the Great Lakes Sphinx.  In exchange, they received their new #1 starting pitcher, Andy Pettitte (12-4, 2.27 ERA.)  It was a hefty price to pay, but Pettitte could not have made more of an impact.  Before this trade, the Sea Cats' record was 45-35.  After this trade, they went 52-28 -- tied with the Villanova Mustangs for best second-half record in the BDBL.

As well as Pettitte performed for his new team, Kevin Millwood (8-7, 5.65 ERA) performed just as awfully.  Millwood was acquired in that same chapter, along with another former Salem underperformer, Scott Shields (3-5, 5.56 ERA), in exchange for Trojan horse Matt Clement, the infamous Scott Baker and prospects Fernando Martinez and Jon Lester.

DeCastro did not make another trade the rest of the season.  But then, he didn't have to.  This is only the second post-season appearance for DeCastro and the Sea Cats, and the first since 2001.  That year, South Carolina was blown out of the Division Series by the Akron R˙che in five games.  Five years later, DeCastro is praying that history will not be repeated.

Southern Cal Slyme

The bulk of the 2006 EL wild-card-winning Southern Cal Slyme offense was built less than a year ago.  This past winter, the Slyme acquired both Carlos Delgado and Victor Martinez (along with Neifi Perez) from the Chicago Black Sox in exchange for Derrek Lee, A.J. Pierzynski and Felix Pie.

Both Delgado and Martinez racked up over 140 runs created this season (142.3 RC for Martinez, and 141.1 RC for Delgado.)  Martinez enjoyed perhaps the best season of any catcher in BDBL history, and flirted with a .400 batting average for most of the season.  He ended up at .383/.448/.610, with 35 doubles, 27 home runs and 101 RBIs.  Delgado hit .333/.422/.639, with 50 doubles, 37 home runs and 119 RBIs.  Together, Martinez and Delgado pretty much carried the entire Slyme offense, which ranked second in the EL with 840 runs scored.

Two other players created more than 100 runs each for the Slyme this season, and both were signed as free agents in the 2006 auction: Jeff Kent (.272/.348/.465 with 100.0 RC)and Raul Ibanez (.296/.370/.445 with 103.7 RC).  Southern Cal had only $33.6 million to spend on free agents this past winter (ranking 7th in the league in that category), and 15 spots to fill.  But they made a big splash in the auction, spending $8.5 million on Kent, $6m on B.J. Ryan (9-4, 2.06 ERA, 32 SVs), $3m on Torii Hunter (.254/.315/.409), and $6m on Ibanez.

Another major contributor to the offense was Jay Gibbons (.325/.374/.607), who was acquired this past winter from the Los Altos Undertakers in exchange for (what else?) two pitching prospects.

All in all, the seven hitters (including Perez) acquired by GM Bob Sylvester, Sr. this past winter accounted for 689.9 runs created this season -- 75% of this team's total!

On the mound, SoCal added C.C. Sabathia (15-8, 3.92 ERA) last December, in exchange for Geoff Jenkins.  Jose Contreras (15-12, 3.89 ERA) was SoCal's #1 pick (and the #1 pick overall) in the 2003 farm draft (the first of two years in a row SoCal owned the #1 pick in the draft.)  And Josh Beckett (16-7, 3.76 ERA) was acquired in 2004 as part of a six-player trade with the Chicago Black Sox, which involved Vernon Wells and Brett Myers.

At the annual trading deadline, the Sylme added closer Brad Lidge (3-1, 3.51 ERA in 33+ innings as a Slyme) to the bullpen, giving them a nightmare-inducing lefty/righty combo of Lidge and Ryan.  And as if that weren't enough, they also added a THIRD closer in that trade: Todd Jones (6.14 ERA in 22 IP as a Slyme.)

With a very strong bullpen, a solid starting rotation and four strong hitters in the lineup, the Slyme are well-positioned to advance far into the post-season.  The problem is that they drew the short straw, and will have to go through the league's top-ranked team, the Villanova Mustangs, in order to advance any further.

Sylmar Padawans

Of the eight teams in the 2006 post-season, the Padawans are the only team that played November baseball last year as well.  Most of this year's team was carried over from the 2005 Griffin Division championship roster, including ace Roy Halladay (14-7, 2.31 ERA), #2 starter A.J. Burnett (11-14, 3.47 ERA), co-closer Francisco Rodriguez (2-7, 2.60 ERA, 1 SV in 69+ IP), leadoff hitter Carl Crawford (.311/.344/.489 with 97.6 RC), third baseman Brandon Inge (.254/.343/.468 with 72.1 RC) and disappointing second baseman Craig Biggio (.208/.278/.361.)

The word "disappointing" applies to many of the hitters in Sylmar's lineup.  Among those players is Mike Cameron (.258/.318/.487 with 41.1 RC in 267 AB.)  Cameron was acquired last winter, along with catcher Javier Valentin (.256/.344/.573) from the Corona Confederates in exchange for über-prospect Howie Kendrick, Jose Capellan and Danys Baez.  And Emil Brown, who was signed in the free agent auction for a seemingly bargain price of $5 million, hit just .237/.291/.362 with just 51 runs created (or, about $10,000 per run.)

After scuffling through the first three chapters with an offense that was scoring just 4.4 runs per game, and his team nine games behind the division-leading Silicon Valley CyberSox, GM John Duel made the bold decision to add millions in payroll for the 2007 season by trading Derek Lowe and Casey Blake to Los Altos for Cliff Floyd, Eric Chavez and Mark Mulder.  In retrospect, that trade seems like a colossal flop.  Floyd hit just .215/.317/.348 for the Padawans in 68 games.  Chavez hit just .233/.272/.438.  And Mulder was a below-.500 pitcher at 4-5, though he posted an ERA of 3.54 in 104+ innings (which was better than Lowe's ERA of 4.29 as a Padawan.)

But Duel wasn't done.  That same chapter, he also acquired Paul Konerko from the Kansas Law Dogs in exchange for Lyle Overbay and two promising young prospects (Brandon McCarthy and Neil Walker.)  However, this trade, too, flopped.  Konerko hit just .235/.356/.435 as a Padawan -- numbers that were barely better than Overbay's .254/.350/.367 averages.

After a dismal start to Chapter Four found the Padawans trailing the leaders by nine games, Duel began to consider waving the dreaded white flag.  He placed several players on the block, including closer Mariano Rivera.

Coming into the season, the Sylmar bullpen had drawn comparisons to the best BDBL bullpens of all time.  With Rodriguez already fronting the bullpen, Duel spent an extraordinary amount of money ($12.5 million in 2006, $25 million committed through 2007) on two more closers in the auction: Rivera (1-2, 1.96 ERA in 41+ IP as a Padawan) and Bobby Howry (6-3, 1.49 ERA in 72+ IP.)

But when the Villanova Mustangs offered a package of young players (Garrett Atkins, Jason Bartlett and Chris Iannetta) for Rivera, Duel couldn't refuse, and pulled the trigger.  Then, just four days later, Duel reversed course, reigned in the white flag, and made yet another bold trade involving millions of dollars in future salary.  In exchange for Konerko and two others, the Padawans received MVP candidate Derrek Lee and Francisco Cordero.  Unfortunately for Sylmar, Lee (.225/.351/.415) was an even bigger flop than the other hitters Slymar had acquired this season.

In the end, Duel achieved his goal of winning a second consecutive division title.  And he did so in unprecedented fashion, coming back from a nine-game deficit at the all-star break.  But he paid an extraordinarily high price in order to do so.  The Padawans currently have $67.1 million in guaranteed salary tied up for 2007 -- $3.6 million OVER their allotted salary cap (before penalties and bonuses.)  And that is only for 16 players.  And that does not count any of the players who are currently in their option year.  The 2007 Padawans are a financial MESS, which means it is highly unlikely that we'll be seeing Sylmar playing any games next November.

Villanova Mustangs

After years and years of purging and rebuilding, Villanova GM Tony Chamra has finally changed his tune from "The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow" to "Right Now."  Thanks to Chamra's legendary patience, the Mustangs are a classic example of a team built through relentless hording of young players, acquired through iteration after iteration of rebuilding and dumping star talent in exchange for youth.

Villanova's top hitter, Travis Hafner (.306/.417/.544), was acquired from the Akron Ryche in the winter of 2004, while he was still toiling in the minor leagues.  Ace starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis (17-7, 3.97 ERA) was acquired (along with Nick Swisher) from the Ravenswood Infidels last season in exchange for two players with more immediate impact (Michael Barrett and Brian Giles.)  Rich Harden (8-5, 3.01 ERA) was picked up at the expense of Brandon Webb in pre-season 2004.  Morgan Ensberg (.290/.374/.544) was acquired via trade in 2004.  And Joe Blanton (15-10, 4.31 ERA) was acquired (along with Danny Haren!) from the Atlanta Fire Ants in a pre-season deal last winter involving Miguel Tejada and Chad Cordero.

In each case, the Mustangs benefited greatly from their position of weakness, trading present-day value for future value.  In addition, they continued to build their own stable of young players from within, by acquiring players like Neil Cotts (4-1, 3.21 ERA, 14 SVs), Brian McCann (.248/.304/.372), Johnny Estrada (.274/.304/.358) and Jesse Crain (7-9, 3.49 ERA, 10 SVs) for their farm club.

Having so many players performing at such high levels at such cheap salaries allowed the Mustangs the luxury of adding two expensive free agents in the auction in Jim Edmonds (.282/.416/.549 with 120.4 RC) and Mark Buehrle (16-11, 2.82 ERA in 252 IP) -- each at $12.5 million in salary.

This summer, Chamra finally loosened his stranglehold on his youngsters (a tiny bit) by trading Bill Hall, Dustin McGowan, Freddy Sanchez, Garrett Atkins, Jason Bartlett, Chris Iannetta, Bobby Crosby and Curtis Granderson.  By doing so, he was able to add Mariano Rivera (1,00 ERA in 27 IP, with 13 SVs for VIL), Scott Eyre (5.74 ERA in 15+ IP), Jermaine Dye (.250/.303/.458), Ronnie Belliard (.206/.257/.296) and Aaron Hill (.287/.355/.385) to help this year's club.

In a season filled with parity, the Mustangs were the only team in the BDBL to reach triple digits in wins.  The only question remaining is: Will there success in the regular season carry over to November?  They say that great playoff teams are built upon pitching and defense, and the 'Stangs own the best ERA in the Eck League, and are ranked second in fielding percentage and batting average on balls in play.  With Rivera leading a deep bullpen, and an offense that is more than capable of scoring against the best pitchers in the league, Villanova has to be considered the odds-on favorite to win the 2006 BDBL championship.  (Just as I predicted on this page nine months ago.)