August, 2007

Sorting Out the Eck League

There are 56 games remaining in the 2007 season, and all four spots in the Eck League playoffs remain up for grabs.  In the Higuera Division, the Kansas Law Dogs lead the BDBL defending-champion Villanova Mustangs by just one game.  In the Person Division, the Nashville Funkadelic hold a four-game lead over the Wapakoneta Hippos, and a six-game lead over the SoCal Slyme.  Three teams (the Cleveland Rocks, Akron Ryche and Chicago Black Sox) in the Hrbek Division are separated by just three games, with the Rocks holding a one-game advantage.  And in the EL wild card race, Villanova holds a one-game lead, and only eight games separate the top five teams in that race.

With so many impact players switching uniforms and altering these pennant races over the past several weeks, you'd need a scorecard as complex as Jim Doyle's to keep up with it all.  But fear not: I am here for you.

The purpose of this month's article is to sort out all the hoopla and attempt to predict how the rest of this season will play out.  As always, I make no guarantees, so don't wager too much money over what you're about to read.

Higuera Division Race

This race is about as tight as it gets.  Despite the additions of Roger Clemens and Johan Santana, the Law Dogs haven't gained nearly as much ground on the Mustangs as most people figured they would.  And looking forward, the Mustangs have done far better against their Chapter 5 and 6 opponents (68-44) than the Law Dogs (59-53.)  So, should Chris Luhning be worried?  You betcha.

Right now, Clemens (7-1, 3.65 ERA) has just 36 innings of usage remaining this season (or roughly five starts), which explains why Luhning traded for Anibal Sanchez (4-3, 3.41 ERA for SoCal) this past chapter.  Sanchez has roughly 62 innings remaining (about 9 starts), which means he'll basically replace Clemens in the rotation for a chapter and a half.  There's no reason to believe that he'll be any more or less effective, so this is basically a wash for Kansas.

Unfortunately for Luhning, that's not the only usage problem facing his team over the final two chapters:

Let's do the math.  Kansas has 56 games remaining.  Clemens, Hill, Mussina, Sanchez and Santana can start 32 of those games.  That leaves 24 games that will be started by the likes of Brian Bannister, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson, Seth McClung and Anthony Reyes.

Yeesh.

Luhning has also been bulking up his bullpen lately, adding Chad Bradford, Jonathan Papelbon and Dennys Reyes to a bullpen that already included Takashi Saito, Fernando Rodney and Chad Qualls.  So maybe the strategy here is to stretch out the starting rotation by using each starter for only 5-6 innings, then turning the game over to the bullpen.  If we limit the top five pitchers to six innings apiece, we can squeeze an extra three starts out of them.  If we limit them to five apiece, that's an extra dozen starts.  However, even in that unrealistic scenario, that would still leave 12 games to be started by some truly awful pitchers.

It's difficult to know what Kansas' record will be in those 12-to-24 games.  Nor is it possible to know whether the strategy of using their best starters for only five innings each would be viable.  For the sake of this exercise, let's assume that Kansas limits their best starters to five innings, and that this strategy works out brilliantly.  Kansas plays .600 ball for the 44 games where those top five pitchers are starting, and .450 ball (granted, a huge assumption) in the remaining 12 games where those other pitchers are starting.  That would give them a record of 31-25 over the remaining 56 games, and a record of 92-68 overall.  Can the Mustangs top that record?

Villanova has no usage problems in their starting rotation, with the exception of their top starter (Tim Wakefield), who has just 43.1 innings remaining.  The recent addition of Clay Hensley (4.60 ERA for SCS) may help pick up the slack, depending on how he adjusts to his new home park.  But it would be difficult to top the performance of Wakefield (2.68 ERA over 110+ innings.)  So subtract a couple of wins for this exchange.

'Stangs GM Tony Chamra also picked up several weapons on offense this past chapter, including David Dellucci, Wes Helms and David Ross.  Dellucci (.354/.432/.661 vs. RHs this season) takes over for Andre Ethier (.300/.365/.367) as the platoon left fielder.  Helms (.316/.388/.500 overall) takes over for Tony Graffanino (.291/.352/.466) at third base.  And Ross (.333/.394/.840 vs. LH) takes over for Henry Blanco (.333/.359/.450) as the platoon catcher vs. lefties.  Add it all up, and we're talking an upgrade of maybe 15 runs, or around two extra wins.

Villanova has been playing .600 ball over the last two chapters, and they've also posted a .600+ record against the teams they'll be facing over the final two chapters.  If we assume, then, that they'll continue this pace, that would give them a 34-22 record the rest of the way, and an overall record of 94-66.  Subtract a couple of wins for Wakefield's loss, add a couple of wins for the offense, and add another win for picking up Trevor Hoffman in the bullpen, and that puts the Mustangs at 95-65 for the year -- three games ahead of Kansas.

Predicted final standings:

Person Division Race

Try and try as he may, Bob "White Flag" Sylvester is still in this race.  Since neither Clemens nor Sanchez pitched very often for the Slyme, neither one's loss affects this team a great deal going forward.  The question is how SoCal has managed to stay in this race for so long, given that they're being outscored (by one run) by their opponents this season.  And the answer may lie within that 19-11 record in one-run games.  Historically, a team's record in one-run games should match its overall record, so the Slyme should be somewhere around .500 this season.  Given that, and the fact that SoCal hasn't made any moves to improve the team this season, I'll predict they go 28-28 the rest of the way, and finish with a record of 85-75.

Another Eck League team outperforming their Pythagorean record by as many games as SoCal is the Hippos.  Wapakoneta's record in one-run games (16-12) isn't nearly as impressive as SoCal's, but it's still a little better than expected.  And most of the reason for that was the brilliant performance of Jonathan Papelbon (1.01 ERA and 26 SVs in 53+ IP), who is a Hippo no more.  Subtract three or four wins for the downgrade from Papelbon to Chad "Circus Music" Cordero.

On the plus side, the Hippos' starting pitching should improve greatly with the additions of Aaron Cook, Brett Myers and Jose Contreras.  With those three replacing Mark Hendrickson (5.62 ERA), David Bush (5.19) and Mark Buehrle (5.86) in the rotation, that could mean as many as five or six extra wins down the stretch.  Add it all up, and we're looking at a 93-67 team by year's end.

Finally, in Nashville, the Funk are only getting better and better as the season progresses.  They have two glaring usage problems in Pat Neshek (4.1 IP remaining) and Aaron Sele (4.1 IP remaining), but filled one of those holes with the acquisition of Freddy Garcia (87.2 IP remaining, 5.57 ERA for Great Lakes.)  As Neshek has only thrown 36+ innings this year, and has greatly underperformed (5.20 ERA vs. a 2.19 ERA in MLB), his loss is minimal as well.  So no need to add or subtract any wins for Nashville the rest of the way.

The only thing that may slow down the Funk is the fact that they're playing a tough schedule the rest of the way, mostly against the Hippos and Slyme.  But, of course, the Hippos and Slyme play an even tougher schedule, having to face the Funk.  Figure a .580 winning percentage the rest of the way, which would put them at 32-24 over the next two chapters, and 95-65 by year's end.

Predicted final standings:

Hrbek Division Race

A lot of interesting things going on in that table above.  First, notice that although Cleveland is currently in first place in the division, they're only the third-best team in the division over the past two chapters of play.  Next, look at those Pythagorean numbers, where Akron clearly outshines the other two contenders.  But then, notice that in games played against the opponents these teams will be facing down the stretch, Cleveland has clearly dominated up to this point, while Akron is two games under .500.

Perhaps no team improved itself more this past chapter than Chicago.  Andruw Jones will now roam center field instead of Juan Pierre -- an upgrade of at least 10 runs over the final two chapters.  Scot Shields (2.89 ERA in 65+ IP this season) was added to the bullpen, and he should provide a major upgrade over Francisco Cordero (4.43 ERA over 40+ IP.)  And Roy Oswalt (4.96 ERA in 158 IP for Allentown) replaces Adam Loewen (4.50 ERA in 78 IP) and Chan Ho Park (5.76 ERA in 111 IP) in the Chicago rotation.

Much has been written about Oswalt's underperformance in the BDBL -- especially this season.  But for a team with a 5.83 ERA, even an underperforming Oswalt will be a major boost, worth perhaps 2-3 extra wins.  If you assume that Chicago was a .500 ballclub before these acquisitions, then we're looking at a record of possibly 34-22 over the final two chapters with this newly-configured roster.  That would give them an overall record of 86-74.

Moving up the chain, Akron Ryche GM DJ Shepard did what he has traditionally done whenever his team has been in the thick of a heated pennant race: nothing.  In fact, the Akron Ryche are the only team in the BDBL that hasn't made a single trade all season (not counting the pre-season.)  Of course, there is nothing necessarily good nor bad about trading in general, and if a team feels it can win without trading, then often the wisest move is no move at all.

The Akron Ryche have outscored their opponents by 34 runs this season.  In comparison, the Rocks have outscored their opponents by just two runs, and the Black Sox have been outscored by a whopping 53 runs.  So, on paper, the Ryche have been the most dominant team in the division this season.  The question is: how?

Akron is hitting .259/.331/.434 as a team -- well below the league averages of .272/.337/.449.  They sport the third-best ERA in the league at 4.22, but their CERA ranks just fifth at 4.53.  No member of the Ryche appears among the top ten in batting average, OBP, hits, runs, RBIs, doubles, home runs or runs created.  Bronson Arroyo (11-10, 3.82 ERA) is the only Akron member appearing among the top ten in ERA or wins, and no Ryche pitcher appears among the top ten in batting average, OBP or slugging against.

This is a thoroughly unremarkable team from top-to-bottom, yet it's been the most dominant team in the Hrbek Division.  There's no reason to think, then, that they won't continue to perform just as well over the final two chapters.  The only stumbling block they may encounter is their schedule.  Akron is just 11-13 against their own division this season, and 55-57 against the teams they will be facing in the final two chapters.  At their current pace, Akron would go 29-27 over their final 56 games.  Reverse that record, however, given the fact that their opponents have been bulking up while they've sat on their hands.  That would give them a record of 81-79 at year's end.

For Cleveland, it's been mostly downhill since their triumphant 16-12 Chapter One.  They followed that chapter with records of 15-13, 10-14 and 14-10 over their next three chapters, allowing the teams behind them to play catch-up.  Two chapters ago, GM Mike Stein added Curt Schilling in an effort to jump-start his team.  So far, Schilling (3-2, 3.32 ERA in 38 IP) has been as good as advertised, and has been a big improvement over James Shields (0-8, 5.89 ERA as a Rock.)

But with Cliff Lee (6-11, 6.73 ERA) still stinking up the starting rotation, something more needed to be done.  Instead of covering up that dead weight, however, Stein traded away another good, young pitcher this past chapter to boost his offense.  Raul Ibanez (.315/.377/.474 for the Slyme) now takes over for Endy Chavez (.291/.318/.442) in right field, which is an upgrade of perhaps as many as 15 runs.  And in limited usage, Tim Salmon (.333/.432/.551 for SoCal) becomes the primary pinch hitter/fourth outfielder against lefties.  Those two upgrades may be good for two extra wins down the stretch -- and at this point, every win counts.

The Rocks are a .580 ballclub since the acquisition of Schilling, and have played .545 baseball against the teams they'll be facing in the final two chapters.  Split the difference, and call them a .563 team the rest of the way.  That would translate into a 31-25 record.  Add a couple of wins for the Ibanez/Salmon deal, and you've got a 33-23 record, or an 88-72 team overall.

Predicted final standings:

EL Wild Card Race

If my predictions hold true, Villanova, Nashville and Cleveland will capture their respective divisions.  This means the wild card race would look like something like this:

Predicted final wild card standings:

In a recent poll, the BDBL voted the Kansas Law Dogs as the favorites to win the Eck League title (with 6 out of 15 votes.)  And with a starting rotation of Clemens, Santana, Mussina and Sanchez, they probably would be the favorites to win it...if they make it to the playoffs.  The problem for Kansas is that it's going to be a really tight race, both in their division and in the wild card.  The fate of their post-season depends upon three things:

1. How awful will their #5-#7 starters be?
2. How often will they have to pitch?
3. Will the loss of Jonathan Papelbon offset the gains the Hippos made in their starting rotation?

These are the burning questions Kansas fans will be following with great interest over the next 56 games.  But there are many, many other, equally-interesting questions that will eventually decide who gets to play November baseball this year, and who gets to miss out on all the fun.