July, 2007
Defending
the Dump, Revisited
What
an exhausting and bewildering year it's been. Although we've seen fewer trades this season
than any other season in league history, a higher proportion of those
trades has been completely nonsensical, epic disasters. It is difficult to
remember another time in league history where so many teams benefited so
greatly while sacrificing so little. Time and time again,
we've witnessed teams adding significant impact players to their
starting rotation, bullpen or lineup without having to exchange
anything of value in this or any future season.
Back in April,
I did my best to defend the decision to make early dump trades, well
before hindsight could be of any benefit to the dumping teams. In that piece, I listed several trades
that were made in recent years, and tried to look at them objectively,
using both hindsight and the thought process that probably went into those
decisions at the time the trades were made. Although we usually
like to wait a few years before passing judgment on any trade, the
trades made earlier this season have been so laughably lopsided, we could easily pass
judgment today, and nothing would likely change a year or two from now.
So let's pass some judgment, shall we?
Trade: Last winter, New Milford traded Roger
Clemens to Southern Cal for Joel Piniero, Jose Valverde, Brian
Schneider, Dioner Navarro and Garrett Anderson.
At the time: Clemens was a $19 million burden
on the Blazers' salary cap. The Blazers were looking at a Draft
Day budget of roughly $6 million (according to Blazers' estimates), and trading Clemens freed
an additional $9 million
in salary. However, it also freed New Milford from their biggest
and most coveted trading chit well before the season even began. The
deal was "centered around Navarro," according to New Milford GM Anthony Peburn, who was ecstatic to get a "young catcher and $9 million" in
exchange for Clemens.
How it turned out: After hitting just
.244/.316/.342 in MLB '06, Navarro is batting a robust .180/.247/.264
through 178 at-bats. His career averages now stand at
.240/.316/.335 through 629 at-bats, so this year's performance has been
hardly surprising. Given that his BDBL option
year has expired, New Milford will either have to sign him long-term
this winter or release him. Either way, it's a no-win situation.
With their extra $9 million in spending money, New Milford was able to
afford both Kenny Rogers ($10.5 million) and Chipper Jones ($8.5MM) in
the free agent auction. More on those players below.
Verdict: Had the Blazers used hindsight to
their advantage, and waited to pull the trigger on Clemens, they
undoubtedly would not have traded for Navarro, and they would have had
to live without Rogers or Jones. Had they held onto Clemens,
there's no telling what they may have received in return for him this
season. But whatever it would have been, it's hard to imagine it
could have been less than what they got. Verdict: New Milford
should've waited.
Trade: During the draft, New Milford traded
Chipper Jones to Nashville for Akinori Iwamura, Yoslan Herrera, Hong-Chi
Kuo and David Dellucci.
At the time: New Milford shelled out $8.5
million for Jones, out-bidding the Marlboro Hammerheads (who submitted
an $8MM bid) and Allentown Ridgebacks ($8.5MM) to get him. They
immediately put him on the block, and within days traded him for the
package above. Iwamura and Herrera were both coming to the U.S.
from foreign countries (Japan and Cuba, respectively), and neither had
played a single game in MLB. Kuo was an old friend of the Blazers
organization, who'd been dealt in the massive Jason Bay trade of 2006.
And Dellucci was acquired merely as filler for a team unlikely
to win more than 50 games in 2007.
How it turned out: Iwamura missed a month with
a strained oblique, then was hit in the eye and missed a handful of
games in late May. In between the various ailments, he's hit
.311/.413/.481. Like most Japanese hitters, the power he displayed
across the Pacific has disappeared (just 1 HR and 8 XBH a week ago, but
6 XHB in the past 6 games),
but he's hit enough singles and (surprisingly) drawn enough walks to be of some use. Herrera (5.58 ERA
in 59+ IP at AA) has been a spectacular failure, and has already been
released by the Blazers. Kuo (27 IP, 29 H, 2 HR, 11 BB, 24 K, 6.33
ERA) has
continued a career-long pattern of failure, injury, tons of walks and
tons of Ks. And Dellucci was later jettisoned as part of a
seven-player deal that netted Adam Lind.
Verdict: Would the Blazers make this trade
today, knowing what they know about Iwamura, Herrera, Kuo and Dellucci?
Maybe, maybe not. Those four players certainly aren't worth $8.5
million combined next year. And it's questionable whether they'll
ever be worth that much, given Iwamura's age and Kuo's injury history.
Without question, that money could have been spent
more wisely. Verdict: New Milford shouldn't have acquired Jones in
the first place. But given that they did, they should have waited
to trade him, given what they ended up getting in return.
Trade: During the draft, New Milford traded
Kenny Rogers, Yhency Brazoban and Jerry Hairston to Cleveland for Miguel
Batista, Melvin Mora, Kyle Farnsworth and Kevin Kouzmanoff.
At the time: New Milford forked over a whopping
$10.5 million for the 42-year-old Rogers, with the sole intention of
trading him. Within minutes of signing him, the Blazers did just
that, essentially spending $10.5 million on Kevin Kouzmanoff and a
package of mediocre veterans. At the time, Kouzmanoff was
considered to be a good prospect, who was expected to compete for an MLB
job in spring training, though he didn't rank on Baseball America's
top-100 list.
How it turned out: Again, the question here is:
could that money have been better spent? And the answer is: of
course. For $10.5 million, the Blazers could have purchased
several mediocre vets, and traded each one for fliers like Kouzmanoff.
Or, they could have rolled the dice on underappreciated players in the
draft. Or, they could have signed a free agent whom they actually
intended to keep. They could have done any number of things with $10.5
million, really. But they blew their load on one player, then
traded him for, essentially, one rookie -- a rookie
who is hitting .221/.286/.374 so far this MLB season. Of the vets,
Batista and Mora are both free agents after this season, and New Milford
has yet to find a taker for either. Farnsworth was later traded
(along with Miguel Cairo) for the spectacular duo of Renyel Pinto (4.59
ERA in 33+ IP in MLB)
and Ben Zobrist (.159/.156/.222 in 63 ABs in MLB.)
Verdict: What a waste of money. The
Blazers essentially spent $10.5 million on three completely useless
players for 2008. It's still up in the air how much Kouzmanoff
will be worth down the road, but it's doubtful he'll ever be a $10.5 million player. The flip side to the "should they have waited
for hindsight?" argument is that the player the dumping team is trading
could lose his value the longer they wait. And that certainly has
been the case here, as Rogers has yet to throw a pitch in MLB, and will
likely be a huge burden to the Rocks next season. So, the verdict
here is that New Milford made the right move by trading Rogers when they
did, but they made an enormous blunder by acquiring him in the
first place.
Trade: Before Opening Day, Marlboro traded
David Ortiz to New Hope for Jason Giambi, Shane Victorino and Shaun
Marcum.
At the time: Within minutes of signing Ortiz to
a $10.5 million salary in the auction, a panic-stricken Shark placed him
on the trading block. And minutes after that, this trade was
consummated.
Since Giambi is in his walk year, he was acquired solely for the purpose
of trading as well. According to Sharky's press release at the
time, "Getting back Giambi to platoon with Garciaparra gives us similar
production. We also get [much-needed] young hitting with
switch-hitter Victorino (who will be the starting RF in Philly) and a
flier on Toronto's fifth starter next year. This deal basically
gives us similar offensive production this year at 1B without the
commitment next year."
How it turned out: Well...needless to say,
Giambi's and Ortiz's production in the BDBL this season has been
anything but similar. In fact, no hitter in the history of
baseball (real or imagined, MLB or Little League) has ever put up
numbers anywhere near Ortiz's. Giambi was later traded (see
below.) Victorino has hit .273/.341/.402 so far. He's on
pace for 15 homers and 48 stolen bases. And Marcum has enjoyed a
shockingly effective season, posting a 3.38 ERA in 64 innings, with 62
Ks.
Verdict: Although it looks like Marlboro
received two cheap and decent players in this trade (though both need to keep
up this pace through the second half), just imagine what they could have
received if they had held onto Ortiz. Imagine what a contending
team would be willing to trade to add a MONSTER bat with a 1300+ OPS to
the middle of its lineup. I know what I would give, and it's far
more than Victorino and Marcum, I can tell you that. Verdict: At
the very least, Sharky should have waited long enough for some other
team to make an offer for Ortiz. Accepting the very first bid to
show up in his in-box was probably not the wisest decision.
Trade: Just days after handing the Badgers the
most valuable player in the history of the league, Marlboro traded the
best reliever in the league (Mariano Rivera) to New Hope in exchange for
Daniel Cabrera, James Loney and Chad Paronto.
At the time: Rivera is in his walk year, so
there was no rush to trade him. (Or, at least, there shouldn't
have been.) Cabrera was a perennial disappointment to those who
expected that his high-90's fastball, groundball tendencies and
occasional brilliance would translate into a "breakthrough year" at some
point in his career. Loney posted good numbers in the minor
leagues, but was a man without a position in the big leagues. And
Paronto was a $2 million middle reliever who was probably acquired to
offset the difference in VORP.
How it turned out: Needless to say, Rivera has
been lights-out for the Badgers, as expected, and is a big reason why
they sport the second-best record in the BDBL. To the surprise of
no one but Sharky, Cabrera's career-long awfulness has continued into
the 2007 MLB season. Through 97 innings, he has allowed 14 homers
and 46 walks, and has posted a 5.20 ERA. His contract, which pays
him $5.2 million through the 2009 season, is now a burden Marlboro must
carry. Loney finally got the call on June 7th, and managed 15
at-bats before crashing face-first into a wall. He's played 10
games in the big leagues now, and is hitting .429/.448/.821 in 28
at-bats. Paronto has posted
a 4.88 ERA through 27+ innings, with more walks than strikeouts, and
will undoubtedly be released on Cutdown Day.
Verdict: Had Marlboro waited until the MLB
season began, it's doubtful they would have taken a flier on Cabrera.
In retrospect, just getting rid of that contract made this a tremendous
trade from New Hope's perspective -- never mind the fact that they also
got Rivera "thrown-in." Loney is now an outfielder, which means
he'll have to hit much better than he did in the minors to become an
asset to the Hammerheads. It could happen, but if Sharky had to
make this decision over again, something tells me he would pass.
Therefore, the only logical verdict here is that he should have waited.
Trade: Prior to Opening Day, Chicago sent Ivan
Rodriguez and Kurt Suzuki to the Manchester Irish Rebels in exchange for
Yovani Gallardo, Adam Loewen and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
At the time: Manchester GM Jim Doyle was so
delusional, he thought his team was one aging, overrated catcher away
from winning the division. And he was willing to trade three of the top young
players in the game to acquire that missing piece of the puzzle.
How it turned out: Well, I-Rod has hit a
whopping .253/.301/.402 for the Rebs, who limped into the all-star break
with a 36-44 record -- 9 games behind in the division.
Verdict: If you're going to trade away a star
impact player early in the season, well before hindsight can be of any
benefit to you, you had better get so much talent in return that the
offer is simply too good to refuse. This was one of those offers.
Needless to say, Chicago did the right thing by making this trade when
they did. If I were in the middle of a pennant race, and someone
offered me those three players for my starting catcher, I think I'd pull
the trigger. Some offers are just too good to pass up no matter
what position your team is in. Even though Loewen is out for the year, this is still
a trade that can benefit the Black Sox franchise for YEARS to
come.
Trade: During the draft, Allentown traded David
Eckstein and Robb Quinlan to the Corona Confederates for Ryan Braun and
Tom Martin.
At the time: Corona GM Ed McGowan felt that
Eckstein was the missing ingredient his team needed to win the Butler
Division.
How it turned out: We've given Ed enough grief
over this trade already, so I won't beat this dead horse anymore.
Verdict: This trade doesn't even really fit
into the category of "early-season dump trade." In those types of
trades, the team doing the dumping is sacrificing a star player with
impact value. But in this case, we're talking about David
Eckstein. Poor Ed is going to regret this trade for a long, long
time.
Trade: At the end of
Chapter One, the SoCal Slyme traded Roger Clemens and Paul Konerko to
the Kansas Law Dogs for Ted Lilly, Adam LaRoche, Chris Shelton, Wil
Ledezma and Adam Jones.
At the time: The Slyme were a first-place team,
despite having not pitched Clemens at all in Chapter One. They
figured they didn't need him, so they traded him while his value was
still seemingly at its peak, getting a couple of replacement arms in
exchange. Why Konerko was included was a mystery, but the
Sylvester family's theory at the time was that LaRoche and Shelton
combined could match the offensive production of Konerko.
How it turned out: Clemens owns a 5-0 record
with a 2.66 ERA in 61 innings for Kansas. Ledezma and Lilly own a
5-5 record with a 5.48 ERA in 69 innings for SoCal. Konerko has
created 28.9 runs in 143 PAs for Kansas. LaRoche and Shelton have
created 58.8 runs in 255 PAs for SoCal. The Slyme are now six
games behind in the Person Division.
Verdict: This isn't your typical "dump" trade,
because both teams claim they were making the trade to improve their
teams this year. In that respect, the Slyme seem to have
replaced Konerko's bat (58.8 RC vs. a prorated 51.5 RC), but not
Clemens' arm. If the Slyme hadn't made this trade, would they be
any closer to first place? Probably, though it's hard to say for
sure. One unexpected twist to this whole saga is the fact that
Lilly (92+ IP, 79 H, 12 HR, 18 BB, 82 K, 3.90 ERA) is having such a tremendous season
in MLB, and is signed through the 2009 season at only $5MM in total
salary. If the Slyme were unconcerned about competing this year,
Lilly's acquisition would make this a great trade, in retrospect. While
Ledezma (4.78 ERA in 37+ IP, signed through '08), LaRoche
(.211/.306/.366, signed through '10) and Shelton (demoted back to the
minors, signed through '09) have done nothing to warrant their
contracts, Jones has been swinging a red-hot bat in the minors, and may become a real asset
in '09 or '10. One would hope, however, that a first-place team
wouldn't be looking toward next year (never mind '09 or '10.) And
if so, one would hope that they wouldn't be putting all their eggs into
Ted Lilly's basket, well before Opening Day of the MLB season had even
begun. Verdict: On many different levels, the Slyme would have
been better off waiting.
Trade: In mid-March, Marlboro traded Jason
Giambi and Ryan Tucker to Manchester for Ty Wigginton and Andrew
McCutchen.
At the time: Determined to make ALL of his
trades for the entire season before the Ides of March, Sharky Kaminski
traded his final big trade chit, roughly three weeks before Opening Day
of the MLB season. In exchange, he received top-25 prospect
McCutchen and the $4.5 million Wigginton.
How it turned out: McCutchen got off to a
horrendous start, hitting just .189/.247/.311 in the month of April.
He followed that up with an equally-horrendous May (.230/.307/.407) and June
(.250/.305/.295).
Meanwhile, Wigginton is hitting .280/.326/.479 in MLB, and will probably
be released at the end of the year.
Verdict: McCutchen was acquired for the 2009
and 2010 BDBL seasons, so anything he does this year could be termed
irrelevant. But still...would Sharky have made this trade today,
knowing how many steps backward McCutchen has taken this year?
Probably not. Therefore, it was probably wise to wait beyond March
10th to blow his final load of the season. Sharky's fear was being
"stuck" with Giambi, but I offered Carlos Gomez for Giambi
just a couple of weeks ago. I wonder who Sharky would rather own
right now: Gomez or McCutchen?
Of the nine trades above, you could make a very good
case that seven of them shouldn't have been made, as the teams trading
their superstar players should have waited for a little MLB hindsight to
benefit them. These are only the trades that I would consider to be
"early" dump trades. There have been so many awful trades made
this season that I could continue this article for another 2,000 words,
and I still wouldn't cover them all.
I recently ran a poll on our front page, asking which was the most
lopsided trade of the year, and I was astonished how many trades
qualified for this distinction. (The Eckstein trade won that poll,
but that was before the recent Schilling and Lackey trades.)
The question remains the same as always: Why are there
so many AWFUL trades made in the BDBL, year after year after year?
After all, the longer we play this game, aren't we supposed to get
better at it? Quite frankly, some of these trades look like rookie
mistakes -- the kind of trades you'd see made by naive 14-year-olds
playing in a DMB league for their very first time, while competing
against a league full of
15-year DMB veterans.
One explanation is that there are literally zero
consequences for making an awful decision in the BDBL. If a major
league owner gives his GM free rein to spend $19 million (per year) on
free agents in the off-season, you'd better believe that owner expects
to see instant results, either on the field or at the gate. But a
team like the Blazers can spend $19 million this past winter on Kevin
Kouzmanoff and Akinori Iwamura, and they suffer no consequences
whatsoever. They get that $19 million back this winter. And
undoubtedly, they'll spend that $19 million on one or two more big-name
free agents next winter, who will then be immediately traded for a few more fliers.
Whether or not those fliers pan out really doesn't matter in the end,
because the Blazers really haven't lost anything tangible (other than
having to endure a few 100-loss seasons...which they've grown used to by
now.)
On the flip side, there is little motivation for a
contending team to spend top dollar to fill the holes in their roster on
Draft Day, knowing that they can fill those holes far more easily
through trading. Why, for example, should Tony Badger have spent $6
million to acquire a closer this past winter? It was much wiser
to spend that money somewhere else and let Sharky foot the bill for that
closer on Cutdown Day. Why should the Nashville Funkadelic spend
$8 million to fill that hole at third base, when the Blazers were more
than willing to do it for them? Basically, some teams are getting
an additional $6-$15 million to spend at the auction without actually
having to spend it!
We've discussed ways of "fixing" this
problem in the past,
such as requiring a two year contract and a one year no-trade clause for
all Type-H free agents. But would this solution merely delay the
inevitable? Instead of trading Chipper Jones for Aki Iwamura this
year, the Blazers' brain trust would simply wait another year. Or,
maybe teams like the Blazers would just stop bidding on free agents
completely, and these players would no longer get fair market value each
winter. Either way, it's far from an ideal solution.
A better solution, I believe, is attaching a two-year no-trade
clause to ALL Type-H free agents, and upping the required contract
length to a minimum of two years. After all, when is the last time you saw any MLB team sign a free agent, then trade him within the next two years?
This would solve the problem of illegitimate bidding, but it
may create another problem by driving down the cost of all free agents. So I would attach a
"rider" to this bill, stating a change in the way we bid for free
agents. Instead of an "e-Bay"-style bidding format, where the
winning bid is always $500K more than the next-highest bid, I suggest we
move to a straight (or "silent") auction, where the winning bid is
simply the bid
submitted by each team (with current tie-breakers remaining.) This
solution would likely put an end to the "one-year superteam" strategy we
witnessed last winter, where teams were willing to sacrifice their 2008
season to win it all in 2007, and threw their money away accordingly.
Granted, no solution is likely to ever solve all the
problems in this league. But some solutions may get us closer to our goal of
having the "perfect" DMB league. And as long as those
solutions exist, they should be seriously considered.
Normally, at this time of year, I run a "Peter
Gammons" article filled with trade rumors heading into the final trading
deadline of the season. But this year, I just don't see a lot of
trades happening. I often say that some of the best trades I've
made are the trades I didn't make. But this year, it seems
like some of the worst trades made were the ones that weren't
made. For whatever reason, several contending teams seem content
to just sit back and ride out the season without making any effort to
improve.
I am consistently amazed to see how little market
value top ace pitchers have had on the trade market this season.
After all the ridiculous panic-spending we witnessed this
past winter, I expected there to be a feeding frenzy for ace pitchers on
the trade market this year as well. Instead, there has been so little
demand for these pitchers, and so few teams entering the bidding wars
for them, that ace pitchers have been sold for pennies on the dollar.
How does a pitcher like C.C. Sabathia go for $20
million on the open market in January, and yet much better pitchers go
on that same market in February, March and April and receive so little
in return? The teams that have traded these pitchers all have the
same excuse: "We put [fill in the blank] on the Selling forum,
and only got two offers. And one of them was completely insulting,
so we took the other one."
And my response is always the same: a) if you don't like
an offer, make a counter-offer, b) if you don't like ANY of the offers,
then wait another six weeks and see if a better offer comes along, and c) don't sit back
lazily and wait for offers to come to you; be proactive and put together
some offers yourself!
That said, I can't help but wonder why so many
contending teams have sat back all season without making any real effort
to acquire some of these arms. You want me to name names?
Okay.
The Wapakoneta Hippos are in the midst of a real
battle, tied for first place in their division. They have a
pitching staff that owns a 4.86 ERA, their ace is Brad Radke, and
they're actually using Mark Buehrle and Mark Hendrickson every fourth
day. Why on earth wouldn't Bobby Sylvester jump on ANY trade
possibility to acquire ANY starting pitcher of ANY value? With
Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Dave Bush, Joba Chamberlain, Tom Gorzelanny,
Deolis Guerra and Andrew Miller, the Hippos certainly have enough trade
bait to match the offers that were accepted above.
The Hippos are in a battle for the division with the
Nashville Funkadelic, who are trotting out Nate Robertson (5.70 ERA in
the BDBL) to the mound every fourth game. Surely, they could use
one of the pitchers above, no? And with Josh Hamilton, Daisuke
Matsuzaka, Pat Neshek, David Price and others, they may have even more trade
bait to offer than Wapakoneta.
How about the Akron Ryche, who were also locked into a
tie for first at the all-star break? With Javier Vazquez sporting
a 5.00+ ERA and Tim Corcoran (4.50) taking the ball every fifth game,
you'd think they could use an arm to put them over the top and give them
an edge over their Ohio rivals. Instead, they've decided to stand
pat and hold onto all their prime trade bait (such as Stephen Drew
and...er...Stephen Drew.)
The Chicago Black Sox trail in that division by just
one game. They own a whopping 5.83 ERA. And NO ONE owns as
much trade bait as Chicago (Evan Longoria, Fernando Martinez, Dustin
Pedroia, Felix Pie, Billy Rowell, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Travis Snider,
Mike Bowden, Yovanni Gallardo, etc., etc., etc., etc..) Why
haven't they stepped up and made an offer for one of the above?
In conclusion, there are several factors to blame for
all the atrocious trading we've seen this year:
1. Non-contenders who are too panic-stricken to
hold onto their most marketable players for more than a week and
grab the "best offer available" simply out of fear of being "stuck"
with those players, and too lazy to proactively seek better offers
on the market. 2. Contending teams who are
too satisfied with mediocrity to sacrifice any of their young players to improve
their teams this year. 3. A playoffs system
that is so random, no one wants to sacrifice any future contending
seasons on the premise of improving their chances of winning it all
this year. 4. A rules system that makes
it too easy for non-contenders to trade away their biggest assets
without getting anything of value in return.
In addition to the rules suggestion I made above,
having a permanent bonus/penalty structure in place would go a long way
toward simulating the long-term approach and accountability MLB GMs have
in their jobs. While no rules change will ever stop awful trades
from happening, at least these changes would make the offending GMs more
accountable for their actions. |