October, 2007

FTDOTC Grab Bag

I couldn't decide what to write about this month, so I figured I'd just throw out a bunch of random topics.

Prospect Scratch Tickets

Recently, there has been a lot of chatter on the board about a few trades that I was "wrong" about; namely, the 2006 trades involving Clay Buttholz, Fausto Carmona and Assdroolble Cabrera, and the 2004 trade involving Jihaddy Peralta.  As most of you undoubtedly recall vividly, I was against all four trades when they were made, as I felt too much value had been traded in return for these unknown (and widely unheralded) commodities.  Today, with 20/20 hindsight, I look like a chump, as all four have become full-fledged major league superstars and surefire Hall-of-Famers.

So, was I wrong for speaking out against those trades when they happened?  It depends.  A lot of people seem to believe that NO trade should ever be judged until years afterward.  But I like to think that we can get a pretty good read on a trade without having to wait.  And history proves that the odds are against any A-ball pitcher or slap-hitting middle infielder making an impact in the major leagues, no matter how highly-touted he may be.  The problem is, we only remember the ones that do beat the odds.

To demonstrate how selectively our memory works, let's look at a few trades that were similar to the four trades above, yet turned out far differently for the teams doing the superstar dumping.

Trade: In 2004, the Bear Country Jamboree traded Sammy Sosa (and several others) to the Allentown Ridgebacks in exchange for Merkin Valdez (and several others.)

How it looked at the time: Valdez was the 40th-best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, coming off a season in which he struck out 166 batters in 156 innings as a 21-year-old in the Single-A Sally League.  In '04, Valdez rose all the way from A-ball to Triple-A, posting a 3.69 ERA at the three levels, with 80 K's in 83 innings.

How it turned out: Where is Merkin Valdez now?  That is the question.  Like so many A-ball pitching phenoms before (and after) him, Valdez fell off the professional baseball radar, never to be seen again.

Trade: In 2004, Salem traded Rich Harden, Jeremy Reed and Joel Hanrahan to Villanova for Brandon Webb and Adrian Beltre.

How it looked at the time: At just 22 years old, Harden was considered the top young pitcher in the game.  He was ranked #23 in BA's top 100 list in 2003, and then threw 102 innings at two different levels in the minors, posting a 2.74 ERA with 108 strikeouts before being promoted to the big club.  Reed enjoyed an even bigger year in 2003, as he hit .409/.472/.591 in 242 AB's at Double-A after a promotion from Single-A.  Baseball Prospectus was so impressed, they named him the #1 prospect in baseball in 2004.  And Hanrahan (11-6, 3.65 ERA, 158 IP, 143 K at AA/AAA) also enjoyed great success in the minors at age 21.

How it turned out: Well, by now we all know the tragic story of Rich "Brittlebones" Harden.  Two years ago, he was signed to the longest contract (nine years) ever awarded to a pitcher in BDBL history.  And since then, he's spent more time on the DL than the active roster, and is possibly on the verge of being released by the Mustangs.  Reed (MLB career: .253/.314/.366 in 775 AB's) is now floating around in the cesspool that is the BDBL free agent scrapheap.  And Hanrahan's career has taken such a wrong turn that he is now pitching for the Washington Nationals.

Trade: In 2003, the Litchfield Lightning traded valuable lefty closer Arthur Rhodes to the Akron Ryche for Fernando Cabrera.

How it looked at the time: There are many similarities between Cabrera and Fausto Carmona.  The have the same initials, they both have pitched in the Cleveland Indians organization, they're both right-handers, and they both hail from Latin America.  But the similarities end there, because Cabrera was actually a much better minor league pitcher than Carmona.  In 2003, Cabrera compiled a 2.97 ERA in 109 innings at Double-A Akron as a 21-year-old, with a 40/115 BB/K ratio.  His career numbers to that point: 408+ IP, 3.70 ERA, 7.9 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 8.8 K/9.  Fausto's career minor league numbers: 599 IP, 3.41 ERA, 9.1 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9.

How it turned out: Cabrera's MLB career to date: 138+ IP, 5.00 ERA.

Trade: In 2003, Great Lakes traded Armando Benitez to Marlboro for Joel Guzman.

How it looked at the time: Like Assdroobal and Jihaddy, Joel Guzman was considered to be among the top shortstop prospects in the minors, thanks to his gold glove and the potential that he may develop some hitting skills eventually.  At the tender age of 18, Guzman held his own in the High-A Florida State League, hitting .246/.279/.371 in 240 at-bats.  The very next season, he did learn to hit: .307/.349/.550 in 329 A+ at-bats.  He skyrocketed up the prospect lists, and ranked as highly as #5 on Baseball America's top-100.

How it turned out: Guzman's major league totals (.226/.351/.290 in 31 AB) pretty much tell you everything you need to know.

Trade: In 2003, the Houston Heatwave traded 24-year-old rookie Eric Hinske (.279/.365/.481 w/ 38 doubles, 24 HR and 13 SBs) to the Kansas Law Dogs for Jose Lopez and Dallas McPherson.

How it looked at the time: Lopez, who hit .324/.360/.464 in 522 AB's in the High-A California League at the age of just 18, was the #38 prospect in baseball in 2003, and was considered to be the shortstop of the future -- both for the Mariners and the Heatwave.  McPherson, a second-round pick out of college, hit .277/.381/.427 in his first full pro season in 2002, and was enjoying another big season (.308/.404/.606) in 2003.  He ranked #33 on BA's list in 2004, and #12 in 2005.

How it turned out: Lopez's MLB career to date: .263/.297/.381.  McPherson's numbers: .247/.294/.461.

Trade: In 2003, Stamford traded Brandon Phillips to the Oakville Marauders for John Olerud.

How it looked at the time: Another hyped-up shortstop prospect, Phillips was among the top ten prospects in baseball, ranking #7 on BA's 2003 list.  In 2002, Phillips made the jump all the way from Double-A to the majors.  However, he got off to a slow start in '03, and hit just .175/.247/.279 in 154 AB's in Triple-A.  This, however, was thought to be an aberration.

How it turned out: It wasn't an aberration.  Phillips continued to struggle in 2004 and 2005, and managed to play only a dozen games in the big leagues during those years.  Eventually, he was released by the Oakville franchise, and was later picked up late in the $100K rounds by Ravenswood.  Today, of course, Phillips is a monster second baseman, having a career year.  But since his MLB career appeared to be over, the team that received him in this deal never benefited from that career year.  It would've required extraordinary patience and confidence for the Oakville ownership to stick with him through those dark years.

I could go on and on and on, but you all (hopefully) get the point.

David Freakin' Ortiz

As of this writing, David Ortiz has hit 75 home runs in 140 games (509 AB's.)  Here is a breakdown of those homers, courtesy of our favorite little program, "BASE":

vs. LH, MLB: 205 AB, 18 HR (11.4 AB/HR)
vs. LH, BDBL: 214 AB, 32 HR (6.7 AB/HR)

vs. RH, MLB: 353 AB, 36 HR (9.8 AB/HR)
vs. RH, BDBL: 295 AB, 43 HR (6.9 AB/HR)

HR by chapter:

1: 18 HR in 105 AB (5.8 AB/HR)
2: 18 HR in 101 AB (5.6 AB/HR)
3: 13 HR in 89 AB (6.8 AB/HR)
4: 7 HR in 88 AB (12.6 AB/HR)
5: 14 HR in 99 AB (7.1 AB/HR)
6: 5 HR in 27 AB (5.4 AB/HR)

3-homer games: 4
2-homer games: 7

Home: 32 HR in 252 AB (7.9 AB/HR)
Away: 43 HR in 257 AB (6.0 AB/HR)

HR vs. opponent:

SAL: 11
NMB: 10
SAB: 7
LAU: 6
RAV: 5
BCJ: 5
LVF: 5
SYL: 5
MAR: 4
AKR: 4
COR: 4
MAN: 4
CLE: 3
CHI: 2
ATL: 0

Tie games: 18 HR in 125 AB (6.9 AB/HR)
Up by one: 8 HR in 58 AB (7.3 AB/HR)
Down by one: 10 HR in 65 AB (6.5 AB/HR)

9th inning: 3 HR in 34 AB (11.3 AB/HR)
Extra innings: 2 HR in 12 AB (6.0 AB/HR)

Two outs: 25 HR in 177 AB (7.1 AB/HR)

Solo: 29 HR in 256 AB (8.8 AB/HR)
Two-run: 24 HR in 160 AB (6.7 AB/HR)
Three-run: 18 HR in 73 AB (4.1 AB/HR)
Grand slam: 4 HR in 20 AB (5.0 AB/HR)

0-2 count: 4 HR in 23 AB (5.8 AB/HR)

HR vs. pitchers (minimum of two):

vs. Escobar: 4-for-9, 4 HR
vs. Bedard: 3-for-10, 3 HR
vs. Verlander: 2-for-2, 2 HR
vs. Weathers: 2-for-4, 2 HR
vs. Loe: 3-for-6, 2 HR
vs. Pinto: 2-for-3, 2 HR
vs. Glavine: 3-for-8, 2 HR
vs. R.Lopez: 2-for-4, 2 HR
vs. Hudson: 2-for-2, 2 HR
vs. Yates: 2-for-2, 2 HR
vs. Wang: 4-for-5, 2 HR
vs. C.J. Wilson: 3-for-5, 2 HR
vs. T.Miller: 2-for-3, 2 HR
vs. Bonderman: 3-for-11, 2 HR

New Hope's record when Ortiz homers: 42-18 (.700)
New Hope's record when Ortiz doesn't homer: 39-41 (.488)

2007 Do-over

With Ortiz hitting so far above expectations, some (okay, Steve) are wondering why their players are performing so far below expectations.  Specifically, the question has been raised as to why Ryan Howard only has 36 homers in 519 at-bats, when he hit 58 homers in 581 at-bats in MLB last year.  All of Howard's numbers are in line with MLB except for home runs:

Given that Nashville's park (modeled after Cincinnati) and Howard's MLB home ballpark of Philadelphia have nearly identical LH HR factors (119 vs. 118), why on earth are his home run numbers so far off?

With no good explanation, the only assumption remaining is that this is just part of the "randomization" factor that DMB uses to keep things interesting.  The theory that DMB touts is that if you simmed 1,000 seasons using the same exact lineups, pitchers and ballparks as the previous MLB season, the average numbers from those sims would align almost perfectly with MLB's numbers.

Well, I don't have the time to sim 1,000 seasons.  But I do have enough time to sim ten seasons.  So here are Howard's numbers for those ten seasons, using the current rosters on our BDBL disk:

As you can see, Howard's current projection of 40 home runs is very unusual and highly improbable (at least in terms of this small sample.)  In ten simmed seasons, the lowest HR total by Howard was 45, and he actually reached as high as 70.  His average for the ten sims: 57.2.

So there you go, Steve.  You just have shit luck.  Feel better now?

Of course, if you're anything like me, you're probably curious about how Ortiz fared in those ten sims.  Well, fear not.  I checked.

Average: 60.7.  Now that's more like it.

So, view Ortiz's season as it should be viewed: with awe-struck admiration for the benevolence of the Random Baseball Gods.

I've never actually simmed past BDBL seasons before, so this exercise was a real education for me regarding the randomness of this game we play.  Check out these standings for the ten simmed seasons:

There's so much to talk about here!  First, check out that Griffin Division.  Yes, the Sylmar Padawans -- who are currently 22 games out of first place -- had the highest average number of wins in my ten sims.  In fact, the Pads won the division SIX TIMES out of those ten sims -- and even won 100 games one season!

Our current Griffin Division leader, Los Altos, is running away with the division this year.  But in the sims, Los Altos never won the division.  In fact, they didn't come within four games of winning the division in any sim.  And they only finished above .500 four times in ten sims!

The other interesting division is the Hrbek, where Chicago ran away with the division nine out of ten times in our sims, yet currently they trail the division by seven games!  Our current division leader Cleveland?  Never won the division once in ten sims.

And how 'bout those Blazers?  An AVERAGE of 121 losses in ten sims!  They lost as many as 127 games in one sim, and never finished with fewer than 115 losses.

So, what do we make of all of this?  Not much.  The only season that counts is the one we're playing.  It is fascinating, though, to see how much random luck plays into this game we play.  Although, to be fair, not all of it is "luck."  Teams like the Undertakers and Blazers win more often in "real life" because of the way their managers use their players.  The MP used to sim these seasons likely didn't use the team's players in the same way, and that may account for most of the discrepancy.

But this little exercise does prove one thing: the Padawans have been UNBELIEVABLY unlucky this season.  The Pads have outscored their opponents by 18 runs this season, yet they're 24 games below .500 and 22 games out of first place.  That is some mind-bending bad luck when you think about it.

Wait 'Til Next Year

When I asked for suggestions for this article on the board, a couple of people wanted me to talk about next year.  But I just don't have the energy/motivation to do a proper job with it and cross-reference all of our rosters with the '07 stats for all 24 teams.  So instead, I'll do a half-assed job, eyeball the rosters, and comment on what I see without checking any facts or figures whatsoever.

Sound good?  Great.  Off we go, then.

Akron Ryche: With Arroyo, Verlander and Vazquez, the '08 Ryche's pitching rotation is strong -- as it is every year.  They'll have to dip heavily into free agency, though, to bulk up their lineup.  They should have a ton of money to spend, with only $18.8 million in salary committed right now.

Allentown Ridgebacks: Ugh.  It's been so nice not having to worry about the Emperor the past two years.  But he'll be back in a BIG way next year.  Even after trading Roy Oswalt, the Ridgebacks' rotation is just plain sickening: Peavy, Prince Felix, Lincecum, Guthrie, Gallardo, Perez, Baker...oh, and the best pitching prospect in the minors (Jacob McGee) waiting in the wings.  Absolutely sickening.  Almost gluttonous, really.  You know one or two of those guys will be traded this winter for some offense (with a few DiStefano-trademarked prospects thrown in to make it even), so aside from Griffey, Braun, Butler, Kelly Johnson, Mark Reynolds and Cody "The Ultimate SUS" Ross, the Ridgebacks will undoubtedly be sporting a 900-run offense by Opening Day.  Mark this on your calendar: Tom will add a third BDBL trophy to his collection in 2008.

Manchester Irish Rebels: Jim Doyle has assured me that 2008 will be HIS YEAR.  Of course, he's been saying this for about seven years now, so this is nothing new.  Like the '07 version, the '08 Rebs will have a very good starting rotation of Sabathia, Cain, Hamels and Kazmir.  And like the '07 version, the '08 Rebs will have a few decent hitters as well, in Soriano, Upton, Pena, Beltre and Markakis.  They should have some money to spend, too, now that Furcal ($9.5MM) is off the books.  But with Sabathia eating up (pun intended) one-third of the team's entire payroll, it will be difficult to add much more to this team via free agency.  The Rebs should be improved in '08.  I'm just not sure how much more improved.

Sylmar Padawans: John Duel started out as the "pitching-first" guy, and then seemed to flip that strategy 180-degrees when he realized that scoring runs is half the battle.  Now, the Padawans look better at the plate than on the mound.  With Atkins, Crawford, Lee, Phillips and Ramirez, the '08 Pads should have one of the better lineups in the league.  On the mound, though, there isn't much to talk about aside from Burnett and Garland.  Granted, that's not a bad start.  But I'm not sure they'll have enough money to fill out the back end of that pitching staff.

Cleveland Rocks: Mike Stein "went for it all" in 2007 at the expense of his '08 team, so I wouldn't expect the Rocks to be major players next year.  All things considered, though, they don't appear to be in bad shape, considering Kenny "The Albatross" Rogers and his $10.5 million salary.  Derek Lowe and Carlos Silva are fronting the rotation at the moment, with Uggla, Thome, Gary Matthews and Russ Martin on offense.  It's not a bad team.  I'm just not sure it's a contender just yet.

Chicago Black Sox: The '08 Black Sox look a lot like the '07 Sox, with Oswalt, Francis, Zambrano and Zito returning to the rotation, and Jones, Teixeira and Wells returning to the lineup.  But of those seven, none has done better in MLB '07 than he did in '06.  In fact, Jones, Zambrano, Wells and Zito are considerably worse.  On the plus side, lil' Dustin Pedroia will be a nice rookie addition at $100K in salary, and the team will shed $22 million in salary with free agency, and they'll lose another $6.1 million by dropping Mark Prior.

Villanova Mustangs: Whatever happened to that Villanova dynasty?  Poor Tony Chamra spent three years stockpiling young talent, but has only squeezed one good year out of that talent so far.  (Granted, that one year resulted in a trophy...so I guess it was worth the wait.)  Chamra dodged not one, but TWO, bullets when neither Pedro Martinez nor Jason Schmidt compiled 40 MLB innings this year.  So that's an additional $20 million in unexpected spending money.  (Always a nice surprise.)  Unfortunately, he'll need that money, as the '08 Mustangs have a lot of holes to fill.  At the moment, the Villanova starting rotation consists of Adam Wainwright, half a Billingsley and...well, that's pretty much it.  The lineup isn't bad, with surprise-of-the-year Matt Diaz, Brian McCann, half a Kotchman, Chris Young and Nick Swisher.  But is it enough to beat the Ridgebacks?  Ha!

Southern Cal Slyme: Bob Sylvester has spent the entire 2007 season trying not to compete, so that he could build up his '08 team as much as possible.  How's that working out?  For the most part, the players he acquired this year (James Shields, Ted Lilly and Reggie Willits, in particular) should make a big impact in '08.  But the biggest impact will come from the career years of carryovers Hanley Ramirez and Victor Martinez.  With only $13.6 million in salary committed so far, the Slyme should be able to add plenty of firepower this winter.  Right now, they look like legitimate contenders.  (Not only that, but they still lead the wild card by two games THIS year!)

Bear Country Jamboree: With A-Rod having (another) career year, the Jamboree should have a good head start toward a 2008 division title.  Unfortunately, A-Rod doesn't have much of a supporting cast.  Carlos Guillen and Josh Willingham are having decent years, and Jose Vidro is enjoying a nice (though singles-driven) year as well.  But Mark Loretta, Kevin Mench, Scott Podsednik and Richie Sexson will cost this team $8.5 million just to release them.  And while Tim Hudson has turned out to be a surprisingly good gamble at $7.5 million, there is little pitching aside from him.  It could be another long year in Bear Country.

Las Vegas Flamingos: Vegas has only $18.3 million in salary committed to the '08 season, but they'll need to spend every penny of their remaining salary cap wisely if they're going to contend.  Of the six players they have signed for '08, Utley and Matsui should deliver all-star-caliber performances.  Delmon Young will also be a nice rookie addition.  But the pitching staff needs a lot of work.  A LOT of work.  After Chien-Ming Wang, the next-best pitcher on the staff appears to be...Brett Tomko?  A LOT of work.

New Hope Badgers: Bonds is gone, but Ortiz and Sizemore return to the league's top offense.  Melky Cabrera should have a nice sophomore season, but Michael Cuddyer will only be a shell of his former self.  On the mound, Lackey is gone, but Chris Young returns, and Blanton should be solid.  Overall, the team doesn't look too fearsome at the moment.  But I'm sure that's nothing a few phone calls to the Shark won't fix.

Los Altos Undertakers: Last year, I predicted several BDBL championships for the Undertakers from 2007-2010.  How's that prediction looking?  Well, many of those top-flight young phenoms (Alex Gordon, Jared Weaver, Jeremy Hermida, Justin Upton, Rickie Weeks, Matt Garza, Josh Johnson, Adam Miller, Mike Pelfrey, Jeremy Sowers) haven't quite hit their peaks just yet.  But on the plus side, Kevin Youkilis, Hunter Pence, Alexis Rios, Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Duncan, J.J. Hardy, Jon Broxton and Aaron Heilman have all done quite well.  And the best part (for Undertakers fans, at least) is that they'll make a combined salary of just $5.6 million in 2008.  And with Chris Carpenter generously sitting out the season well before he'd thought of throwing 40 innings, that's $20 million in unexpected funny money Jeff Paulson will have to spend this winter.  Must be nice.

Ravenswood Infidels: Fausto!  Fausto!  Fausto!  (Sorry, I couldn't help myself.)  As you may have heard, the Infidels will have a rookie Cy Young candidate in their rotation, making minimum wage next year.  Bobby Abreu, Robinson Cano and Frank Thomas form a quality heart of the lineup, and Roy Halladay gives Ravenswood two aces at the top of the rotation.  But there seem to be a lot of holes left to fill, and not a ton of money with which to fill them.

Marlboro Hammerheads: Sharky took an entire year off, in an effort to build a contender in 2008.  Let's check in and see how he did.  Well...the decision to trade David Ortiz's 80 home runs before Opening Day even began paid off with the acquisitions of Shawn Marcum and Shane Victorino.  If we simmed 80 seasons, Victorino might not total 80 home runs.  But that's okay.  No harm, no foul.  Rivera was sacrificed for one-third of a season from James Loney and the $2.1 million albatross known as Danny Cabrera.  Believe it or not, Cabrera's $2.1 million, plus another $6 million from Rocco Balssmelly, is the only salary Sharky has committed to 2008.  So you know what that means.  Yep, another winter of hearing about how much money Sharky has to spend over and over and over again.  And another winter of a panic-stricken Shark throwing his money around haphazardly.  In other words, pure, 100% entertainment.

Nashville Funkadelic:  With Ryan Howard having another big year, god help us all if he doesn't come within one or two homers of his MLB total next year.  Aside from the big man, the Funk will also welcome back Curtis Granderson, Josh Hamilton, Jason Bay, Chipper Jones, Jose Reyes and Ichiro Suzuki.  In other words, buckle up, Person Division.  On the mound, however, things are looking pretty bleak.  Nashville will be paying Jason Jennings and Greg Maddux a combined $28 million for mediocre performance, but Daisuke will make his BDBL debut at just $100K in salary.  Nashville looks to be right up against the salary cap, so they'll pretty much have to make do with what they have.  But what they have looks pretty good.

Kansas Law Dogs: The 'Dogs will be spending a whopping $50.5 million on just four players next year: Johan Santana ($21M), Mike Mussina ($6.5M), Jermaine Dye ($11M) and Carlos Beltran ($12M.)  That leaves very little money for the other 31 players.  It helps that David Wright will be making just $1.6M, and that Rich Hill and Jonathan Papelbon will be making minimum wage, but there are still a ton of holes that need filling.

New Milford Blazers: Ah, the Blazers.  Last year, when Anthony Peburn decided to gut his franchise for one shot at the trophy, he insisted that his team would be sub-.500 for only one year.  And all year, he has insisted that his team will be "competitive" in 2008.  He has spent most of this season stockpiling one-hit wonders like Garrett Anderson, Marlon Byrd, Jack Cust, Willie Harris and Dmitri Young.  They'll all have some value next year as part-timers, but is this really the foundation of the next Blazers franchise?  Does Peburn really believe that these guys will be valuable BDBL commodities in 2009?  The wisest move he could make would be to trade these guys while their value is high.  But knowing Peburn, and knowing that he'll have roughly $50 million to spend on free agency, he's more likely to throw it all out the window in another effort to "go for it all."  Of course, he'll have to spend the bulk of that money on pitching, since a starting rotation of Micah Owings, Sergio Mitre and Bartolo Colon ain't gonna cut it.

Wapakoneta Hippos: With Albert Pujols, Vlad Guerrero and Matt Holliday, the Hippos never have to worry about having enough offense.  And given Bobby Sylvester's philosophy that pitching doesn't matter, I guess they never have to worry about pitching, either.  My personal belief is that preventing the opposition from scoring runs is somewhat important in a baseball game, and if that's true then the projected '08 starting rotation of Robinson Tejeda, Mike Maroth, Tom Gorzellany, Jose Contreras and Shawn Chacon leaves a little to be desired.

Atlanta Fire Ants: Poor Gene.  It seems as though every hitter on the Atlanta roster (Ryan Church, Carlos Delgado, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Jeff Francoeuer, Marcus Giles, Mike Jacobs, Edgar Renteria) had an off-year in MLB this year, and didn't perform nearly as well as expected heading into the season.  The pitchers didn't fare much better, but at least with rookies Clay Buttholz, Jair Jurrrrjjenns and Jesse Litsch joining the team next year, there is hope for the future.

Great Lakes Sphinx: With the Cleveland Rocks now on the verge of clinching a division title, the Sphinx are the only franchise remaining in BDBL history that has yet to play November baseball.  Will 2008 finally be the Year of the Sphinx?  From what I can see at this point in time...probably not.  John Smoltz returns (at $15.5M) to head the pitching rotation, and Justin Morneau returns (at only $1.6M) to anchor the lineup.  Morneau has a pretty good supporting cast of Orlando Cabrera, Carlos Lee and the shockingly-good Matt Stairs.  But Smoltz's supporting cast consists of guys like John Maine, Boof Bonser, Kei Igawa and Vicente Padilla.  I just don't know if that's enough.  At least, not at the moment.  There's still a whole winter of trading and free agent signing ahead.

Salem Cowtippers: Boy, if only the MLB season ended at the all-star break.  Where's a good old-fashioned player's strike when you need one?  The Salem starting rotation looked unstoppable at the all-star break, but it's now merely "pretty good."  Bedard, Escobar, Webb, Snell and McGowan are the front five, with Jeremy Bonderman (who was the staff ace at the all-star break) now clogging up space (and salary) on the reserve roster.  Offensively, the 'Tippers have some work to do, with only Lance Berkman (sadly, playing his final season on a Cowtipper), Miguel Cabrera, Derek Jeter and Kenji Johjima returning to semi-productiveness.

Corona Confederates: This past year, Ed McGowan believed that he was only one David Eckstein away from a pennant-winning team.  Next year, he may not need the "Little Engine That Could."  The offense is in great shape, with Prince Fielder, Brendan Harris and Howie Kendrick, Joe Mauer, Mike Lowell and Willy Taveras making just $4 million combined.  Of course, Eckstein returns as well.  On the mound, Aaron Harang returns to head the starting rotation.  Unfortunately, that's all there is in terms of pitching.  But with the trade of Johan Santana and his $21 million salary earlier this year, Ed will have plenty of money to buy a pitching staff (or one pitcher, whichever he chooses.)

South Carolina Sea Cats: Looking at the 'Cats roster, there isn't one name that jumps out at me as being a surefire MVP or Cy Young candidate in 2008.  But then, baseball is a team sport.  With Hank Blalock only playing half a season, Matt Murton suffering through a sophomore slump, and Corey Patterson and Trot Nixon having poor seasons, the '08 Sea Cats aren't inheriting much of anything in terms of hitting.  And on the mound, it looks like the ace of the pitching staff is none-other-than Gil Meche.  It could be a very long season for Sea Cats fans.

San Antonio Broncs: The Broncs should score some runs in '08 with Adam Dunn, Jimmy Rollins, Aaron Rowand, Austin Kearns, Connor Jackson and Travis Buck returning.  And thanks to the Blazers organization, Danny Haren will return for another year of dominance on the mound.  But aside from Haren (and reliever Casey Jansssssen, of course), there isn't a lot of pitching to get excited about on the Broncs' roster.  But that's nothing a few well-placed bucks can't fix.

Of course, so much changes between the now and Opening Day that it's hardly worth the time and effort I just put into it.  But you asked for it, so you got it.