February, 2008

2008 Season Preview

The 2008 season hasn't even begun, and yet a few people (myself included) are already writing off the remainder of this season as a foregone conclusion.  After two years of relative slumber, Tom "The Emperor" DiStefano has managed to assemble a team that looks as if it could be the first team in BDBL history to go 160-0.

And yet, the 2007 season was another data point proving that the best team doesn't always win in the end.  After dominating the entire regular season and winning 11 more games than any other team in the league, the Salem Cowtippers were nearly swept out of the post-season in their very first series, losing to a Ravenswood Infidels team that consisted mostly of cobbled-together pinch hitters and short-usage relief pitchers.

This is nothing unusual, of course.  In fact, it has become a true rarity when the best team in the league during the regular season actually wins the BDBL championship.  In our nine seasons, only three teams have ever led the entire BDBL in both wins and runs differential.  And none of those three teams (the 2000 Black Sox, 2005 Cowtippers and 2007 Cowtippers) won the BDBL championship.  Of the ten teams who won the most games during the regular season, only three of them went on to win the championship (and one came with an asterisk.)  And of the nine teams who led the BDBL in runs differential, only one team -- the 2002 Ridgebacks -- won the championship.

So buck up, campers.  There's hope for us yet.

Last year in this space, I correctly predicted five out of the six division winners, as well as the OL wild card winner.  So consider this your "spoiler alert."  If you don't want to know how this season will end, don't read any further.

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Salem Cowtippers

Owner: Mike Glander
2007 Record: 110-50 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard, Kelvim Escobar, Ian Snell and Dustin McGowan.
Bullpen: Francisco Cordero, Manny Corpas, Aki Otsuka, Bobby Seay and Jensen Lewis.
Projected Lineup: Derek Jeter (SS), Orlando Hudson (2B), Miguel Cabrera (3B), Lance Berkman (1B), Alex Rios (CF), Josh Willingham/Mike Cameron (LF), Matt Kemp (RF) and Kenji Johjima (C).

Strengths: Last year, the Cowtippers' starting rotation was the first in BDBL history to include four 17-game winners and five 10-game winners.  But this year's rotation may be even better.  Beckett, Bedard and Escobar are each capable of appearing in the OL Cy Young balloting next December, and Snell and McGowan would be viable #2 starters for nearly every other team in the league.  The starting lineup has no glaring weaknesses, and should score a ton of runs, and the bullpen is headed by two (and a half) dominant closers.

Weaknesses: Depth.  The Salem bullpen has enough innings to get by for half a season, but will need reinforcement by the all-star break.  And the lack of depth in the lineup means few options for pinch hitting and a nightmare scenario every time one of the starters is randomly injured.

Outlook: The Cowtippers should field another strong team, and should have little trouble making the playoffs.  Winning their eighth division title may not be nearly as easy, but with this pitching staff, not doing so would be an enormous disappointment.  (Not that enormous disappointments are all that unusual in Salem.)

Prediction: 1st place.  The Cowtippers should not only win this division, but win it by a healthy margin.  My stated goal for the 2008 season is winning 109 games, which would give me 1,000 career wins, but that may be a tall order for this team.  Of course, what happens after that point is almost a foregone conclusion.  At this point, it's not a question of "Will the Cowtippers lose in the post-season?," but "In what hilariously side-splitting way will the Cowtippers choke in this post-season?"  Expect another first-round exit, regardless of who the opponents may be.

Corona Confederates

Owner: Ed McGowan
2007 Record: 73-87 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Aaron Harang, Jake Westbrook, Aaron Cook, Noah Lowry, Shawn Hill and Dustin Moseley.
Bullpen: Joaquin Benoit, Trevor Hoffman, Peter Moylan, Brandon Lyon, Chris Bootcheck, Chad Qualls and J.C. Romero.
Projected Lineup: Chone Figgins/Jason Michaels (LF), Joe Mauer (C), Prince Fielder (1B), Mike Lowell (3B), Jermaine Dye (RF), Willy Tavares/Kenny Lofton (CF), Mark Ellis (2B) and David Eckstein (SS).

Strengths: Fielder is a monstrous power hitter playing in the ideal ballpark.  He goes from an MLB ballpark with a LH HR factor of 99 to a custom-built "House That Prince Built" in Corona with a factor of 141.  What does this mean?  Well, to the delight of Steve Osborne, expect a repeat of last year's "David Ortiz Circus."  My prediction is that Fielder will hit 72 home runs this season.  The big man is surrounded by capable hitters as well, which means this team could easily lead the league in runs scored.  The Corona bullpen is ridiculously loaded, with far more quality relievers than any team could ever reasonably use.  Unless McGowan plans on using a 13-man pitching staff, one of these guys will be taking up space on the reserve roster, which is almost a gluttonous example of excess.

Weaknesses: McGowan paid a ginormous price for pitching this winter, doling out $16 million for #4 starters Cook and Westbrook (a $50 million commitment over the next three seasons.)  And yet, despite all that money-throwing, the starting rotation still doesn't leave you breathless.  Harang is an ace by even Tony Chamra's definition of the word, and Cook and Westbrook are solid inning-eaters, but they all may struggle in this ballpark.  The back half of the starting lineup is a little weak as well, although with a deep bench, that shouldn't be a major problem.

Outlook: In many ways, the '08 Confederates remind me a lot of the '07 Badgers: one ridiculously monstrous power hitter, drastic ballpark dimensions, one strong ace pitcher followed by a bunch of solid-yet-unexciting inning-eaters, and a strong bullpen.  If that comparison holds, then I'm sure McGowan would be pleased with similar results.

Prediction: 2nd place.  Thanks in part to playing in a league with an uneven schedule, and in a division that includes the New Milford Blazers, the Confederates will win the OL wild card.  They will then sweep their division rivals, the Salem Cowtippers, in a Division Series managed by my MP.  They will then continue to follow in the Badgers' footsteps by becoming yet another wild card winner representing the Ozzie League in the World Series.  There, they will have the privilege of losing to the Ridgebacks, as Ryan Braun wins the World Series MVP by batting .600 with 5 homers and 15 RBI in the series.

New Hope Badgers

Owner: Tony Badger
2007 Record: 95-65 (2nd place, OL champions)
Projected Rotation: Chris Young, Joe Blanton, Andy Pettitte and Doug Davis.
Bullpen: Jason Isringhausen, Chris Ray, Ron Villone, Scott Proctor and Chad Cordero.
Projected Lineup: Mike Lamb/Morgan Ensberg (3B), Grady Sizemore (CF), David Ortiz (1B), Miguel Tejada (SS), Marco Scutaro/Ryan Ludwick (LF), Ty Wigginton/Greg Dobbs (2B), Darin Erstad/Craig Monroe (RF) and Yorvit Torrealba/Ronny Paulino (C). 

Strengths: If Young continues to ignore ballpark factors, he could be a candidate to win the OL Cy Young this season.  Adding Blanton and Pettitte gives the New Hope rotation three quality starters.  Isringhausen could be every bit as dominant for the '08 Badgers as Mariano Rivera was for the '07 team.  And while Ortiz probably won't hit 79 home runs again, he should enjoy another monster season.

Weaknesses: What happened to the Badgers' offense?  This team led the Ozzie League in run-scoring last year, with 887.  This year's version will be hard-pressed to score more than 100 fewer runs.  Barry Bonds is gone, leaving an enormous hole in the outfield that is being filled by guys with names like Scataro and Ludwick.  That's a pretty drastic drop-off.  Sizemore had a disappointing year, and Michael Cuddyer's production in right field has been replaced by some nightmarish combination of Erstad, Monroe and Dave Roberts.  Tejada replaces Felipe Lopez at short, but it's not as much of an upgrade as you might think.  And once you get past Tejada in the lineup, it's pretty much clear sailing the rest of the way.  The same goes for the bullpen, where Isringhausen is the only real threat of the bunch.  And although Badger shelled out huge bucks for Davis, he's a back-of-the-rotation starter with back-of-the-rotation numbers.

Outlook: Tony Badger always finds a way to field a competitive team, no matter what his team may look like on paper.  This year, Badger will have his work cut out for him, as this looks like a .500 team (at best) on paper.  If Badger decides to cut bait at some point and focus on '09, there isn't a lot of trade bait here for contending teams to fight over.  Ensberg, Lamb, Scutaro, Torralba, Cordero, Proctor and Villone are the '08 free agents, and none are likely to bring a ton of value in trade.  But if Badger decides to pull out all the stops and "go for it," he has a wealth of farm talent with which to deal, including Aaron Cunningham, Charlie Fermaint, Cole Gillespie, Hector Gomez, Javy Herrera, Michael Hollimon, Jamie Richmond and Pat Venditte.  (No, I don't know who any of those guys are, either.  But I guarantee they'll fetch a ton in trade!)

Prediction: 3rd place.  The Badgers just have too many holes to fill before they could be considered serious contenders for a playoffs spot.  Expect this team to finish somewhere around .500 as they set themselves up for a run at another OL championship in '09.

New Milford Blazers

Owners: Anthony Peburn (and, to some small extent, Billy Baseball)
2007 Record: 47-113 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Micah Owings, Jason Hirsch, Sergio Mitre, Jon Lieber and Brad Thompson.
Bullpen: Hideki Okajima, Ryan Franklin, Justin Speier, Jared Burton, Damaso Marte, Cha Seung Baek.
Projected Lineup: Aki Iwamura (2B), Willie Harris/Skip Schumaker (CF), Garrett Anderson (LF), Carlos Delgado (1B), Jack Cust (RF), Jeff Keppinger/Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B), Alex Gonzalez/John McDonald (SS), Josh Phelps/Dioner Navarro (C).

Strengths: A kick-ass bullpen.  Peburn went out of his way to stockpile relief pitchers this winter.  No doubt the purpose behind this strategy is to flip all of these relievers for low-cost fliers later in the year.  Another strength is watching Owings hit.  That should be fun.

Weaknesses: Where to begin?  This team took an entire year off, and were so awful they nearly broke the record for losses in a single season.  Yet, after a full, solid year of rebuilding they are no closer to being a contending team now than they were a year ago.  When the ace of your starting rotation would be a #5 spot starter on most other teams, that's not a good sign.  When your #3 hitter is named Garrett Anderson, that's not good, either.  When Jack Cust is your everyday right fielder...not good.  I could go on and on, but it would be too much fun, and I'd like to keep this as brief as possible.

Outlook: Two years ago, when Peburn stripped this team of any and all young talent, he assured the league that his team would be "competitive" in 2008.  Now, it's possible that what he meant was that his team would "compete" for the #1 farm pick in 2009.  And if that's the case, then he made a compelling argument.  But not only won't this team compete for a division title in 2008, but they should finish with 100+ losses.  Which means Peburn will be paying $100 to my favorite charity.

Prediction: 4th place.  Peburn, please make your check out to the American Cancer Society.

Ravenswood Infidels

Owner: Brian "Skizm" Potrafka
2007 Record: 91-69 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Roy Halladay, Mark Buehrle, Fausto Carmona and Jamie Moyer.
Bullpen: J.J. Putz, Bobby Howry, Vinnie Chulk, Scott Downs, Rodrigo Lopez, Cla Meredith and Kerry Wood.
Projected Lineup: Robinson Cano (2B), Luke Scott (LF), Derrek Lee (1B), Bobby Abreu (RF), Edwin Encarnacion (3B), Jason Varitek (C), Jose Bautista (CF) and Orlando Cabrera (SS).

Strengths: Halladay, Buehrle and Carmona are all innings-eating animals who can each contend for the OL Cy Young award.  The bullpen is very strong, led by Putz and Howry.  And the lineup has few weaknesses from one-through-six, with Cano and Lee possibly contending for an MVP award by the end of the year.

Weaknesses: A lack of depth.  The rotation takes a huge nosedive after Carmona, and there is a steep decline after the #6 batter in the lineup.  As in 2007, the Infidels may be a better post-season team (when depth is less of an issue) than they are during the regular season.

Outlook: Both the Infidels and Irish Rebels have three great starting pitchers, a dominant bullpen and four or five really good hitters.  The difference between these two teams is negligible, which means it is going to be a stressful year for Potrafka.  And we all know how well he deals with stress!

Prediction: 1st place.  Whenever two teams look this similar on paper, the fate of the season usually rests upon which team is able to make better trades during the season and push his team over the top.  And we all know Jim Doyle's track record in that regard.

Manchester Irish Rebels

Owner: Jim Doyle
2007 Record: 70-90 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: C.C. Sabathia, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels and Jorge Sosa.
Bullpen: Jonathan Papelbon, Brian Fuentes, Lee Gardner, Leo Nunez and Joe Smith.
Projected Lineup: Brian Roberts (2B), B.J. Upton (CF), Carlos Pena (1B), Alfonso Soriano (LF), Franklin Gutierrez/Nick Markakis (RF), Ivan Rodriguez (C), Rich Aurilia (3B) and Eric Bruntlett (SS).

Strengths: The front three starters in the Manchester rotation compare with any other in the entire BDBL.  Sabathia, Kazmir and Hamels are all big-time lefty power-pitchers, which is a great thing to have in Manchester's lefty-friendly ballpark.  Papelbon is a game-changing closer, and the first five spots in the lineup are very strong.

Weaknesses: Jim Doyle traded Matt Cain for Jonathan Papelbon.  Let me repeat that, so that it sinks in: Jim Doyle traded Matt Cain for Jonathan Papelbon.  Can you imagine how good this team may have been with Cain instead of Papelbon?  Without Cain, the Irish Rebels are about 250 innings short of having a full starting rotation.  Where Doyle will find those 250 innings is a mystery.  The Rebs could also use a major upgrade at catcher, third base and shortstop.

Outlook: Last year, I predicted that Manchester would win this division.  Instead, they finished in third place, and lost 89+ games for the eighth year in a row.  This year, the competition in the Benes Division appears to be a little tighter.  The season-long pennant race between Doyle and Skizm this season will be the stuff of legend.

Prediction: 2nd place.  The Rebs certainly have enough "star power" to contend for the division title, and they should give the Infidels a run for their money.  But in the end, it will come down to which team has the best trade bait to offer.  Manchester has Angel Villalona; Ravenswood has Jordan Schafer and Jeff Manship.  In the end, I think Ravenswood wins that battle.

Marlboro Hammerheads

Owner: Ken "The Shark" Kaminski
2007 Record: 61-99 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Barry Zito, Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse, Phil Hughes, Randy Wolf and Danny Cabrera.
Bullpen: Bobby Jenks, Mike Timlin, Brandon Morrow, Franklin Morales, Latroy Hawkins and Kevin Gregg.
Projected Lineup: Luis Castillo (2B), Matt Stairs (LF), Paul Konerko/Scott Hatteberg (1B), Vernon Wells/Randy Winn (CF), Aubrey Huff (3B), Josh Bard/Jamie Burke (C) and Yuniesky Betancourt (SS).

Strengths: Depth.  The starting rotation is unspectacular, but solid.  The bullpen is filled with more quality arms than any team would reasonably ever need.  And the bench is filled with several players who would likely be starters for other teams.

Weaknesses: The starting rotation lacks the type of front-line ace you usually see on contending teams.  And the lineup lacks that middle-of-the-order thumper whose name appears in the year-end MVP balloting or mid-season all-star roster.

Outlook: Sharky Kaminski spent all of last year building for the future, but the future hasn't arrived just yet.  These things take time, and Kaminski basically stripped his entire roster down to nothing a year ago.  With the advent of success-related incentives and "sticky" bonuses and penalties, Kaminski decided he'd better stop messing around and put a decent team on the field for '08.  All things considered, this isn't a bad team at all.  It's just not a very good team, either.

Prediction: 3rd place.  The Hammerheads will be hard-pressed to sniff .500 this year, but with a little luck they could make a run at it.

Las Vegas Flamingos

Owner: John Bochicchio
2007 Record: 81-79 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Brad Penny, Chien-Ming Wang, Lenny DiNardo, Josh Fogg and Matt Morris.
Bullpen: Rafael Betancourt, Saul Rivera and Oscar Villarreal.
Projected Lineup: Johnny Damon (CF), Chase Utley (2B), Hideki Matsui (LF), Travis Hafner (1B), Delmon Young/Luis Gonzalez (RF), Mark DeRosa (3B), John Buck (C) and Alfredo Amezaga (SS).

Strengths: Penny and Wang form a nice one-two that any team would like to have at the top of the rotation.  Betancourt is a top-notch closer, and Utley is still the best second baseman in baseball.

Weaknesses: Pretty much everything else.  When Lenny DiNardo is your de facto #3 starter, that's a tough hurdle to climb.  Damon is no longer the leadoff man he used to be, and the bottom half of this lineup is far below average.

Outlook: The Flamingos will lose a lot of players to free agency at the end of this season, including Damon, Gonzalez, Buck and Matsui.  There's a lot of trade value there, and if used wisely, Vegas could be in a good position to compete in 2009.  Unfortunately, tying up $24.5 million in salary (and $75.5M over the next three years) by signing three high-risk "Type H" free agents this winter hurts those odds of competing.

Prediction: 4th place.  Why Bochicchio chose to lock up three high-priced, high-risk players for the next three years at this stage of his franchise's success cycle is beyond me.  Although there is no dominant team in this division, the Flamingos are in no position to compete.  All that money would have been better spent elsewhere -- or simply set aside to spend on the Class of '09.

San Antonio Broncs

Owner: Greg Newgard
2007 Record: 78-82 (tied for 2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Danny Haren, John Lackey, Jeremy Guthrie, Orlando Hernandez and Wandy Rodriguez.
Bullpen: Huston Street, Trevor Hoffman, Casey Jansssen, Renyel Pinto, Matt Guerrier, Guillermo Mota and Ryan Rowland-Smith.
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins (SS), Conor Jackson (1B), Adam Dunn (LF), Austin Kearns (RF), Travis Buck/David Murphy (CF), Casey Blake (3B), Rod Barajas/Ryan Doumit (C) and Jose Lopez/Brendan Ryan (2B).

Strengths: Newgard laid out a crapload of money on pitching this winter, so this team's strength had better be pitching.  Fortunately for Newgard, it is.  Haren and Lackey form one of the best one-two combos in the league, and the rest of the rotation is filled with pitchers with sub-4.00 CERAs.  The bullpen is excellent, led by two world-class closers and backed by several capable setup men.  And the lineup revolves around NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, who should be loads of fun to watch.

Weaknesses: Once you get past Rollins, the rest of the lineup is rather ordinary.  Other than the Buck/Murphy platoon in center, the other positions should perform below league-average.  And with the team moving into a very pitcher-friendly ballpark that is especially oppressive to right-handed power hitters, several of the hitters in San Antonio's lineup may not come anywhere near their MLB numbers.

Outlook: The race between San Antonio and Bear Country looks too close to call.  Unfortunately, I have to call it anyway.  Both teams have similar starting rotations, with two or three bona-fide aces at the top.  San Antonio gets the edge with their #4 and #5 starters.  Both teams have top-notch bullpens, but once again, San Antonio gains the edge.  And offensively, both teams have one MVP candidate (A-Rod for Bear Country, Rollins for San Antonio), surrounded by a bunch of decent-yet-unspectacular bats.

Prediction: 1st place.  I've changed my mind about this selection more times than Sharky at a Baskin-Robbins.  But in the end, I think San Antonio's pitching will push them over the top, and Newgard will finally earn his first division title after so many close calls.

Bear Country Jamboree

Owner: Matt Clemm
2007 Record: 78-82 (tied for 2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Brandon Webb, Tim Hudson, A.J. Burnett, Paul Maholm and Chad Gaudin.
Bullpen: Matt Herges, Rafael Soriano, Michael Wuertz, Brad Hennessey, Kyle Snyder, Joe Saunders and Eric O'Flaherty.
Projected Lineup: Sean Casey/Dmitri Young (1B), Carlos Guillen (SS), Alex Rodriguez (3B), Corey Hart (CF), Shannon Stewart/Jonny Gomes (LF), Ross Gload/Rajai Davis (RF), Jose Vidro/Kevin Frandsen (2B) and A.J. Pierzynski/Mike Redmond (C).

Strengths: With Webb, Hudson and Burnett, the Jamboree have three aces at the top of their rotation, capable of matching up against any other front three starters in the league.  The bullpen has good depth, and A-Rod is (as always) a huge weapon in the middle of the Jamboree lineup.

Weaknesses: A-Rod may see a lot of free passes to first this year, as his supporting cast isn't all that threatening.  Casey and Young form a good platoon, and Guillen and Hart are above-average hitters, but the lineup really takes a nosedive after that.  The back of the rotation is thin, and the bullpen lacks a dominant go-to closer.

Outlook: The Jamboree could very well ride their four star players (Webb, Hudson, Burnett and Rodriguez) straight to the post-season.  But it won't be easy.  To make it easier, Clemm will have to swing some savvy trades.  The problem is that there isn't a lot of trade bait on the Jamboree roster.  None of the 15 prospects on the Bear Country farm are likely to rank among the top 100 prospects in baseball this year.  And the team's most valuable young asset, Francisco Liriano, has been branded all but untradeable (and with only a four-year contract, his trade value is a little less than it was last year.)

Prediction: 2nd place.  It is going to be a knock-down/drag-out dogfight between the Jamboree and Broncs this year.  Which team emerges on top is anybody's guess at this point.  If we simmed 1,000 seasons, each team would likely win the division 500 times.  So it will all boil down to luck.

Los Altos Undertakers

Owner: Jeff Paulson
2007 Record: 99-61 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Jeremy Bonderman, Jared Weaver and Matt Garza.
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Joaquim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano and Jack Taschner.
Projected Lineup: Rickie Weeks (2B), Kevin Youkilis (3B), Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Josh Hamilton/Jose Guillen (RF), Hunter Pence (LF), Andruw Jones/Michael Bourn (CF), J.J. Hardy/Ryan Theriot (SS) and Javier Valentin/Gerald Laird (C).

Strengths: A good old-fashioned Undertakers-style completely ridiculously dominant, kick-ass, take-no-prisoners bullpen.  Measuring bullpen greatness is always a tricky endeavor, but if such a measurement were possible, this bullpen would very likely rank at the top of the all-time list.  The Undertakers have no fewer than FIVE relievers who would be closers for most other teams in the league (and that's after trading Francisco Cordero!)  That is far beyond overkill.  And the Undertakers lineup is very strong and deep at every position.

Weaknesses: Where on earth is this team going to find enough innings from its starting rotation?  The four starters listed above threw only 620.1 innings in MLB, which translates to 682.1 innings of BDBL usage.  If you figure a BDBL team needs an average of six innings per start for a 160-game season, that's 960 innings.  So the Undertakers are a whopping 339.2 innings short!

Outlook: Just one year ago, the Los Altos starting rotation appeared to be poised not only to dominate the 2007 season, but every following season for the next several years.  But a funny thing happened over the past year, as the Curse of Monty Burns hit the Undertakers hard.  Paulson's $21 million investment, Chris Carpenter, was shut down in April and lost for the season.  (Of course, Paulson was able to re-sign him for $16M less this winter.)  Weaver ran into some health problems as well, and didn't perform as well as expected in his first full MLB season.  Jeremy Sowers, Garza and Mike Pelfrey didn't advance as quickly as expected.  Josh Johnson was also lost for the season with injuries. And Jason Schmidt was also injured for most of the season, and traded early in the year.  The future still looks bright for Los Altos, but 2008 could be a rough year.

Prediction: 3rd place.  The question of where the Undertakers finish this season depends on where they'll get those 339+ innings.  If those innings are filled by horrendous #5 starters acquired from the free agent garbage dump, then those games will be out of reach before that stellar bullpen gets the opportunity to shine.  If Paulson loosens his grip on some of his prized youngsters, and trades them for quality starting pitching, the Undertakers could very well win the division crown this year.  But that is unlikely to happen, as Jeff loves his youngsters too much to part with them.  So look for Los Altos to perform better than anyone expects, but not well enough to make it to the post-season.

Sylmar Padawans

Owner: John Duel
2007 Record: 63-97 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Jon Garland, Paul Byrd, Tom Glavine, Woody Williams and Kam Loe.
Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez, Ryan Dempster, Doug Brocail, C.J. Wilson, David Riske and Yorman Bazardo.
Projected Lineup: Ichiro Suzuki (CF), Carl Crawford (LF), Brandon Phillips (2B), Garrett Atkins (3B), Frank Thomas (1B), Cliff Floyd/Marlon Byrd (RF), Jason Bartlett (SS) and Rob Bowen/Miguel Olivo (C).

Strengths: Ichiro and Crawford form a pretty neat top of the lineup, and Duel should have loads of fun stealing lots of bases.

Weaknesses: Pretty much the rest of the team.  Garland is a decent #3/#4 starter pushed into the role of ace.  And the bottom four in the rotation consists of aging, upper-30's/lower-40's placeholders.  Not the type of pitching staff you'd like to see on a last-place team.  The lineup lacks power, and the bottom half of this lineup is truly horrific.

Outlook: Last year, the Padawans performed far below their expected performance and finished with 97 losses on the season.  This year, they could very easily lose another 97 games.  The difference is that it won't be a surprise this time.  When a team is this bad, you have to look at what they have to offer in trade, in order to improve relatively quickly.  Unfortunately, Sylmar has little to offer contending teams.  Rodriguez is probably the best trade bait on the roster in terms of talent, but at salaries of $6.1M and $7.6M over the next two seasons, few teams would likely be willing to take him.  Crawford and Suzuki are in the same boat.  It may be a while before we see the Pads back on top.

Prediction: 4th place, with triple-digit losses.

Allentown Ridgebacks

Owner: Tom DiStefano
2007 Record: 71-89 (tied, 3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Oliver Perez, Yovani Gallardo and Scott Baker.
Bullpen: Heath Bell, Jeremy Accardo, Randy Johnson, Justin Miller and Andrew Sonnanstine.
Projected Lineup: Kelly Johnson (2B), Barry Bonds (LF), Ryan Braun/Troy Glaus (3B), Jorge Posada (C), Ken Griffey, Jr./Damian Easley (RF), Cody Ross/Aaron Rowand (CF), Jack Wilson (SS) and Billy Butler (1B).

Strengths: Where to begin?  How about the offense, which includes no fewer than THIRTEEN hitters with an OPS of 900+ against left-handed pitchers?  And against righties, NINE hitters with an OPS over 850.  This offense is so deep that I didn't even list Moises Alou (1056/864 splits) above.  I didn't know where to put him.  If you tally up all of the MLB '07 stats for the Ridgebacks, they hit .283/.364/.488 as a team, and hit 315 home runs -- 65 more than any other team in the league.  Then, there's the pitching.  Peavy is the odds-on favorite to win the EL Cy Young award following his NL Cy Young season.  And he is backed by several dominant arms in the rotation.  The bullpen is also filled with dominant pitchers from both sides of the rubber, led by Heath Bell, who came out of absolutely nowhere to become one of the best Chapter Three free agent pick-ups in league history.

Weaknesses: If you see any, let me know.

Outlook: The Ridgebacks are not only the best team in the BDBL, but no other team is even close.  It's hard to know when things got so far out of control.  Perhaps it was when Ed traded Ryan Braun for David Eckstein.  Or perhaps it was when Skizm traded Tim Lincecum for Frank Thomas.  Maybe it was when John Gill traded Yovani Gallardo for Roy Oswalt.  Or maybe it was when Tom picked up Heath Bell -- a pitcher that was passed up 840 times before the season, and for two free agent transaction periods after that -- at the Chapter Three deadline last year, and Bell magically transformed into a princess overnight.  Whatever the case may be, the Allentown Ridgebacks are back, and they're fully loaded to win championship trophy #3.

Prediction: 1st place, and the BDBL championship, without breaking a sweat.

Great Lakes Sphinx

Owner: Scott Romonosky
2007 Record: 71-89 (tied for 3rd place)
Projected Rotation: John Smoltz, John Maine, Justin Germano, Boof Bonser, Matt Belisle and Matt Chico.
Bullpen: Carlos Marmol, Billy Wagner, Luis Vizcaino, Angel Guzman, Zach Miner and Joel Zumaya.
Projected Lineup: Eric Byrnes (CF), Shane Victorino (RF), Justin Morneau (1B), Jeff Kent (2B), Carlos Lee (LF), Pedro Feliz/Chad Tracy (3B), Michael Young (SS) and Brian Schneider/Miguel Montero (C).

Strengths: Two aces in the rotation, two aces in the bullpen and several big hitters in the lineup.  Playing in a less drastic custom-built ballpark (note: their old ballpark model was Arlington Stadium), the problems Great Lakes' pitching staff encountered last year should be a thing of the past.  Even with the less-friendly park, this lineup is capable of scoring 850 runs, easily.  Finally, Great Lakes has tremendous depth, with over 8,200 plate appearances on offense.  Since the league leader in this category last year had only 6,500 PAs, this is just a tiny bit of overkill.

Weaknesses: Bonser, Belisle and Chico each sport a CERA over 5.00.  Right now, that is the only thing separating this team from a playoffs-caliber ballclub.

Outlook: As we all know, the Sphinx are the only franchise remaining in the BDBL that has yet to visit the post-season.  Can Romonosky finally put that label to rest in the season's tenth year?  Well, I predicted he would last year, and you see how that went.

Prediction: 2nd place.  For the second year in a row, I think this looks like a playoff-caliber team.  But the back end of this starting rotation will hold this team back from that goal.  Until that problem is fixed, Sphinx fans will once again be forced to watch the November madness from afar.  (And believe me, that's not as bad as you think.)

Kansas Law Dogs

Owner: Chris Luhning
2007 Record: 94-66 (1st place, BDBL champions)
Projected Rotation: Johan Santana, Matt Cain, Rich Hill, Brian Bannister and Anthony Reyes.
Bullpen: Takashi Saito, Ryan Madson, Fernando Rodney, Scott Linebrink and Taylor Tankersley.
Projected Lineup: Brendan Harris (SS), David DeJesus (LF), David Wright (3B), Carlos Beltran (CF), Mike Jacobs/Lyle Overbay (1B), Scott Hairston/Rob Mackowiak (RF), Chris Snyder (C), Tad Iguchi (2B).

Strengths: The starting rotation is very strong (for as long as Santana remains in it) thanks to the pre-season trade with Jim Doyle that netted Cain in the biggest heist since New Amsterdam settlers purchased Manhattan for two wooden nickels and a string of beads.  Saito posted some phenomenal numbers in MLB last year, and should be every bit as dominant in the BDBL.

Weaknesses: The Kansas lineup, which scored 885 runs last season en route to a BDBL championship, now looks more like a 750-run lineup, tops.  Wright and Beltran are still all-star-caliber thumpers in the heart of the lineup, but they're surrounded by below-average run-producers.

Outlook: The Law Dogs paid a hefty price for their championship last year by trading for Santana, who comprises nearly one-third of this team's total payroll.  With a little more spending money, and in a division that doesn't include the Allentown Ridgebacks, the Law Dogs might look like a contender.  Instead, they'll undoubtedly be trading Santana at some point soon to load up for another run in 2009.

Prediction: 3rd place.  If Chris Luhning was able to add Matt Cain in exchange for a relief pitcher, what on earth will he get for Santana?  Kazmir, Hamels and Upton?

Villanova Mustangs

Owner: Tony Chamra
2007 Record: 78-82 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Chad Billingsley, Zach Greinke, Kevin Millwood, Dontrelle Willis, Kip Wells and Livan Hernandez.
Bullpen: Jason Frasor, Brett Myers, Darren Oliver, Rich Harden and Jason Grilli.
Projected Lineup: Matt Diaz/Andre Ethier (LF), Brian Giles/Bill Hall (CF), Nick Swisher (RF), Casey Kotchman (1B), Dave Ross/Brian McCann (C), Scott Rolen (3B), Julio Lugo (SS) and Aaron Hill (2B).

Strengths: Depth on offense.  Aside from the eleven players listed above, the Mustangs also have Jeremy Hermida (813/889 splits), Omar Infante (796 vs. LH), Jacque Jones (763/729) and Scott Spiezio (832 vs. LH.)  You want to know why it was so difficult for you to find any hitters with more than 50 PA's on the free agent market this winter?  It's because Chamra's hogging them all.  The 'Stangs have a whopping 7,606 PAs on their 35-man roster.  (But believe it or not, that's only good for fifth in the league.)

Weaknesses: Despite all that depth, it's all about quantity over quality in Villanova.  The lineup still has glaring holes at shortstop and second base, no true leadoff hitter and no big power threats.  And the starting rotation is missing an ace, and includes several pitchers who are only useful for providing innings.

Outlook: Given that Chamra spent several years wallowing in last place while stockpiling young talent, it is shocking to see the Mustangs in such sad shape two years after winning the BDBL championship.  There is still ample young talent on this roster, and the potential always exists for those young players to bust out and fulfill all that potential one of these years.  But it hasn't happened yet.  Maybe next year.

Prediction: 4th place.  The Mustangs will spend yet another year trying to sell their excess veterans in exchange for more young potential, and hope to catch lightning in a bottle one more time.

Southern Cal Slyme

Owner: Bob Sylvester, Sr.
2007 Record: 90-70 (2nd place, EL wild card)
Projected Rotation: James Shields, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens and Dave Bush.
Bullpen: Russ Springer, Tony Pena, Jose Valverde, Juan Cruz, Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler and Micah Bowie.
Projected Lineup: Hanley Ramirez (SS), Ryan Zimmerman (3B), Victor Martinez (C), Magglio Ordonez (RF), Torii Hunter (CF), Raul Ibanez/Ryan Spillborghs (LF), Adam LaRoche/Ryan Garko (1B), Ronnie Belliard/Ryan Freel (2B).

Strengths: Ramirez, Martinez and Ordonez could well be in the starting lineup for the Eck League all-stars this summer, and all three should rank prominently in the year-end EL MVP balloting.  The Slyme lead the league in plate appearances, so there's plenty of depth on the bench, and plenty of good platoon match-ups available from game to game.  In fact, the Slyme's reserve roster will be better than most teams' benches.

Weaknesses: As deep as their offense is, the Slyme's pitching staff is equally thin.  Despite the fact that SoCal ranks among the league leaders in innings (with over 1,700), there just aren't enough quality innings here.  That said, you could do far worse than this starting rotation.

Outlook: After taking last year off, and winning the EL wild card by accident ("Whoops!"), the Slyme are in good position to "go for it all" in 2008.  They have the hitting, they have the bullpen, and they have enough starting pitching to win the division.  How far they get beyond that is up to the Baseball Gods.  And you know how the Baseball Gods adore Tom.

Prediction: 1st place.  My prediction is that at the Chapter Three deadline, Bob will trade Yu Darvish to Jim Doyle in exchange for Scott Kazmir, and blow this division race wide open.

Nashville Funkadelic

Owner: Steve Osborne
2007 Record: 97-63 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Greg Maddux, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ben Sheets, Jason Bergman and Nate Robertson.
Bullpen: Pat Neshek, George Sherrill, Jesus Colome, Chris Schroder and Octavio Dotel.
Projected Lineup: Curtis Granderson (CF), Jose Reyes (SS), Ryan Howard (1B), Manny Ramirez (LF), Dan Uggla (2B), Jason Bay (RF), Wilson Betemit/Mark Loretta (3B), Bengie Molina (C).

Strengths: Granderson and Reyes are two exciting young ballplayers, and Howard and Ramirez are a powerful combination in this lineup.  With so many sluggers hitting in such a tiny ballpark, there will be plenty of free souvenirs for Funk fans sitting in the bleachers.  The Nashville bullpen is very strong and deep, and the rotation is solid for the most part.

Weaknesses: For the least part, the rotation is not so solid.  Bergman and Robertson may need to be treated for whiplash by the first month of the season after watching so many balls fly out over their shoulders.  And there just aren't enough innings here to last an entire season, which means either the Funk will have to trade for a quality starter (and best of luck with that) or scrounge around the free agent landfill for one (in which case, our thoughts and prayers are with the fans of Nashville.)

Outlook: A lot has changed in Nashville over the past two months.  Chipper Jones is gone; replaced with Ramirez.  Bay and Reyes aren't half the men they used to be.  Jason Jennings' monstrous salary is gone, but his quality innings were never replaced.  Joe Nathan is gone, but he's been ably replaced with Sherrill.  The Ichiro Era has ended, but the Dice-K Era has just begun.  A lot of changes: some for the better, and some for the worse.

Prediction: 2nd place.  The Funk don't have the pitching or hitting depth to compete against the Slyme this year, but they should hold their own and finish above .500.

St. Louis Apostles

Owner: Bobby Sylvester, Jr.
2007 Record: 86-74 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Tom Gorzelanny, Tim Wakefield, Kyle Kendrick, Jesse Litsch, Brandon McCarthy and Miguel Batista.
Bullpen: Ubaldo Jimenez, Al Reyes, Jamie Walker, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Dustin Nippert, Shawn Chacon and Joba Chamberlain.
Projected Lineup: Dustin Pedroia (2B), Rafael Furcal (SS), Albert Pujols (1B), Matt Holliday (LF), Adrian Beltre (3B), Melky Cabrera/Reed Johnson (CF), Mark Teahen/Emil Brown (RF) and Johnny Estrada (C).

Strengths: Pujols is still the man.  Even after suffering through the worst, most disappointing, most inexplicable season in BDBL history, he owns a career average of .325/.409/.611 in the BDBL.  And he's still only 28 years old.  This year, Pujols is backed by NL MVP Holliday, who should provide plenty of protection in the lineup.  And the Hippos-- er, Apostles -- are well stocked throughout the lineup, with only one hole at catcher.  (But who doesn't have at least one hole at catcher this year?)

Weaknesses: The starting rotation may be the worst in the Eck League.  Gorzelanny is the de facto ace of the staff, despite pedestrian numbers that make him look more like a #3/#4 starter.  This team was so desperate for starting pitching, they went "Type H" on a 41-year-old Wakefield, who posted a 4.76 ERA last season.

Outlook: Last year, I wrote in this same exact space, "It is tough to win without starting pitching."  Well, a year later the same sentiment applies.  The Apostles tried to win without starting pitching last year, and finished 12 games over .500.  That is probably the high mark for this team, although I would bet the "under."

Prediction: 3rd place.  The only thing keeping this team out of last place is the presence of the Sea Cats.

South Carolina Sea Cats

Owner: Tony DeCastro
2007 Record: 70-90 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Gil Meche, Jarrod Washburn, Mike Mussina, Chuck James, Edgar Gonzalez and Josh Towers.
Bullpen: Matt Capps, Matt Lindstrom, Brian Shouse and Rudy Seanez.
Projected Lineup: Matt Murton/Geoff Jenkins (LF), Hank Blalock (3B), Shawn Green/Kevin Mench (RF), Jason Giambi/Dan Johnson (1B), Ian Kinsler/Kaz Matsui (2B), Jim Edmonds/Corey Patterson (CF), Paul Lo Duca/Mike Rabelo (C), Juan Uribe (SS). 

Strengths: Hmm.  Well...yeah.

Weaknesses: If you take the entire 35-man roster and add up their MLB stats, the Sea Cats hit .258/.323/.415 in MLB '07 as a team.  That's not good.  And if you tallied up all their pitchers, they owned a 4.39 ERA last year (19th in the league), with a league-leading 1.2 homers allowed per nine innings.  That's also not good.

Outlook: It's hard to believe this team won a division just two years ago.  If you look at the roster above, there isn't much room for hope, either.  Giambi, Mussina, Jenkins, Edmonds, Green, Lo Duca?  These guys are all on the wrong side of 30, and heading in the opposite direction of usefulness.  They are nothing but stopgap solutions -- and even in that capacity, they aren't all that effective.  These guys will not keep this team out of the cellar.  Blalock is now 27 years old, and has yet to prove he can hit left-handed pitching.  And every year, his salary rises another $1.5 million.  And it will keep rising through the 2012 season.  The Sea Cats are in desperate need of an infusion of young talent, but don't have the resources to trade for such a thing.  And instead of spending money this winter on players who might be useful down the road, DeCastro threw money at a bunch of semi-warm bodies in an effort to stop the bleeding.  Sometimes it's better to simply bite the bullet and take the one-year hit so that you don't have to repeat this process again next year.

Prediction: 4th place.  But hey, at least they won't be the worst team in the BDBL.

Akron Rÿche

Owner: D.J. Shepard
2007 Record: 86-74 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Javier Vazquez, Justin Verlander, Carlos Villanueva, Braden Looper and Bronson Arroyo.
Bullpen: Rafael Perez, Jon Rauch, Scott Shields, Brian Tallet, David Weathers, Tyler Yates, Justin Hampson, Joel Peralta, Aaron Laffey, Taylor Buchholz.
Projected Lineup: Asdrubal Cabrera/Mark Grudzielanek (2B), Milton Bradley (CF), Todd Helton (1B), Aramis Ramirez (3B), Brad Hawpe/Dan Ortmeier (RF), Jason Kubel/Nate McLouth (LF), Jhonny Peralta (SS) and Carlos Ruiz/Michael Barrett (C).

Strengths: As always, Akron's starting rotation is very strong, and an asset to the team.  The bullpen is also very strong, and unusually deep.  The Ryche have more quality relievers on this roster than any team could ever reasonably need.  The lineup is also strong, with no glaring holes from one through seven.

Weaknesses: There isn't one player in this lineup who is any threat to win the EL MVP award.  Instead, scoring runs will be more of a team effort.  (Is that a weakness?)

Outlook: In nine seasons, the Ryche have finished above .500 eight times.  This franchise ranks #4 on the all-time wins list, and is the only franchise in the BDBL to finish above .500 for the past seven seasons in a row.  There is no reason to expect that streak to end this year.  Or next.

Prediction: 1st place.  Ever so quietly, D.J. Shepard fields a competitive team year after year after year.  This year will be no different.  As always, how far he advances beyond that will depend on how well Allentown's players perform in the post-season.  And we all know how that usually goes.

Chicago Black Sox

Owner: John Gill
2007 Record: 84-76 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Roy Oswalt, Jeff Francis, Carlos Zambrano and Jeff Suppan.
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Manny Delcarmen, Joe Beimel and Derrick Turnbow.
Projected Lineup: Placido Polanco (2B), Norris Hopper/JD Drew (CF), Mark Teixeira (1B), Vladimir Guerrero (RF), Khalil Greene (SS), Ramon Castro/Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C), Melvin Mora (3B) and Juan Pierre (LF).

Strengths: Teixeira and Guerrero are a formidable duo in the middle of the lineup, and the top of the Chicago rotation is very strong.  Nathan is also a game-changer at the head of the bullpen.

Weaknesses: The Black Sox are still about 200 innings away from a full rotation, and it is questionable at this point where those innings will come from.  The bullpen could use one more quality arm as well.  And once you get past the first four or five batters in the Chicago lineup, it is clear sailing the rest of the way.

Outlook: Moving into a more pitcher-friendly custom-built ballpark will help the Chicago pitching staff -- most notably Oswalt and Francis.  And as always, the Black Sox will score plenty of runs this season.  Which means 2008 will involve yet another tight pennant race in the Hrbek Division.  Whereas Akron GM D.J. Shepard tends to "stand pat" when it comes to trading, Gill is always ready and willing to deal.  And the Black Sox have plenty of trade bait at hand.  The only question is whether Gill is willing to sacrifice any good, young players for a shot at beating the Ridgebacks in a short series in November.

Prediction: 2nd place.  The Black Sox will have a tough battle this year, both for the division crown and the wild card.  In the end, I believe Chicago will prevail in that wild card race, as they have more trade bait to offer than the Sphinx, and Gill has more of a proven track record of success at the trade table than Romonosky.  Again, how far the Black Sox advance in the post-season depends solely on how well the Ridgebacks perform in a short series.  If history is any indication, expect a first-round exit for Chicago.

Cleveland Rocks

Owner: Mike Stein
2007 Record: 89-71 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Derek Lowe, Carlos Silva, Julian Tavarez, Jose Contreras and Scott Olsen.
Bullpen: Andrew Brown, Tim Byrdak, Kevin Cameron, Kenny Rogers and Santiago Casilla.
Projected Lineup: Russ Martin (C), Chipper Jones (3B), Troy Tulowitzki (SS), Pat Burrell (LF), Jim Thome/Ryan Klesko (1B), Gary Sheffield (RF), Gary Matthews (CF) and Freddy Sanchez (2B).

Strengths: The strongest offense in the BDBL (outside of Allentown) and the best shortstop in baseball.  The Rocks rank right behind the Ridgebacks with a team OPS of 840 (if you tally their entire 35-man roster.)  Martin, Jones, Tulowitzki and Burrell could all appear in the mid-summer classic, and there is not one hole in this lineup, as #8 hitter Sanchez would be a top-of-the-order hitter in many lineups.

Weaknesses: Pitching.  After Lowe, the rest of the Cleveland rotation is abysmal.  Usually, a team can get away with that if their offense and bullpen are strong, but the Cleveland bullpen is nothing special.  Stein spent $20 million this winter boosting the offense, but spent nothing on pitching.  The Rocks have spent a total of $25.4 million on pitching, and $19 million of that is allocated to Lowe and Rogers.

Outlook: The Rocks finally made the playoffs last year for the first time in nine seasons.  This year, they're going to have a tough team repeating that trick.  This team could very well score 850 runs, but will allow more than that.  The best they can hope for is to break even.

Prediction: 3rd place.  Pitching is a somewhat important part of the game of baseball.

Atlanta Fire Ants

Owner: Gene Patterson
2007 Record: 58-102 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Sean Marshall, Ervin Santana, Mark Hendrickson, John Danks and Kevin Correia.
Bullpen: Todd Jones, Jair Jurrjens.
Projected Lineup: Felipe Lopez (2B), Coco Crisp/Ryan Church (CF), Gregg Zaun (C), Edgar Renteria (SS), Jeff Francoeur (CF), Xavier Nady (LF), Richie Sexson (1B) and Joe Crede (3B).

Strengths: I'm told that Todd Jones is a really nice guy, and Zaun has good veteran leadership skills.

Weaknesses: The entire active roster.

Outlook: Wow.  If you thought the '07 Blazers tested the limits of the definition of "replacement-level team," take a look at this '08 Fire Ants team.  This is a truly awful team from one through twenty-five.  And unless something really strange happens (which tends to happen a lot in DMB), Atlanta should break New Milford's record for losses in a single season.  However, not all is gloom-and-doom.  There are several young players who could play a part in a 2008/2009 Atlanta revival, including John Danks, Rocco Baldelli, Coco Crisp, Francoeur, Ian Stewart, Clay Buchholz, Joey Devine and others.  With our new rules in place, the Fire Ants could be looking at a 2008 penalty as steep as $5.5 million.  They'd better turn it around in a hurry, or that penalty will stick!

Prediction: 4th place.  I don't know how this team will win more than 50 games in 2008.  I really can't even imagine it.  I'm just glad I don't have to play Atlanta this year.  I'd gouge my eyes out if I lost a single game to this team.