February, 2008
2008 Season Preview
The
2008 season hasn't even begun, and yet a few people (myself included)
are already writing off the remainder of this season as a foregone
conclusion. After two years of relative slumber, Tom "The Emperor"
DiStefano has managed to assemble a team that looks as if it could be
the first team in BDBL history to go 160-0.
And yet, the 2007 season was another
data point proving that the best team doesn't always win in the end. After dominating the entire
regular season and winning 11 more games than any other team in the
league, the Salem Cowtippers were nearly swept out of the post-season in
their very first series, losing to a Ravenswood Infidels team that
consisted mostly of cobbled-together pinch hitters and short-usage
relief pitchers.
This is nothing unusual, of course.
In fact, it has become a true rarity when the best team in the league
during the regular season actually wins the BDBL championship. In
our nine seasons, only three teams have ever led the entire BDBL in both
wins and runs differential. And none of those three teams (the
2000 Black Sox, 2005 Cowtippers and 2007 Cowtippers) won the BDBL
championship. Of the ten teams who won the most games during the
regular season, only three of them went on to win the championship (and
one came with an asterisk.) And of the nine teams who led the BDBL
in runs differential, only one team -- the 2002 Ridgebacks -- won the
championship.
So buck up, campers. There's hope
for us yet.
Last year in this space, I correctly
predicted five out of the six division winners, as well as the OL wild
card winner. So consider this your "spoiler alert." If you
don't want to know how this season will end, don't read any further.
Jump to:
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Griffin
Salem Cowtippers
Owner: Mike Glander
2007 Record: 110-50 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Josh Beckett,
Erik Bedard, Kelvim Escobar, Ian Snell and Dustin McGowan.
Bullpen: Francisco Cordero, Manny Corpas, Aki Otsuka, Bobby Seay
and Jensen Lewis.
Projected Lineup: Derek Jeter (SS), Orlando Hudson
(2B), Miguel Cabrera (3B), Lance Berkman (1B), Alex Rios (CF), Josh
Willingham/Mike Cameron (LF), Matt Kemp (RF) and Kenji Johjima (C).
Strengths:
Last year, the Cowtippers' starting
rotation was the first in BDBL history to include four 17-game winners and
five 10-game winners. But this year's rotation may be even better.
Beckett, Bedard and Escobar are each capable of appearing in the OL Cy
Young balloting next December, and Snell and McGowan would be viable
#2 starters for nearly every other team in the league. The
starting lineup has no glaring weaknesses, and should score a ton of
runs, and the bullpen is headed by two (and a half) dominant closers.
Weaknesses:
Depth. The Salem bullpen has enough
innings to get by for half a season, but will need reinforcement by the
all-star break. And the lack of depth in the
lineup means few options for pinch hitting and a nightmare scenario
every time one of the starters is randomly injured.
Outlook:
The Cowtippers should field another strong team, and should have little
trouble making the playoffs. Winning their eighth division title
may not be nearly as easy, but with this pitching staff, not doing so
would be an enormous disappointment. (Not that enormous
disappointments are all that unusual in Salem.)
Prediction:
1st place. The Cowtippers should not only win this division, but
win it by a healthy margin. My stated goal for the 2008 season is
winning 109 games, which would give me 1,000 career wins, but that
may be a tall order for this team. Of course, what happens after
that point is almost a foregone conclusion. At this point, it's
not a question of "Will the Cowtippers lose in the post-season?," but
"In what hilariously side-splitting way will the Cowtippers choke in
this post-season?" Expect another first-round exit, regardless of
who the opponents may be.
Corona Confederates
Owner: Ed McGowan
2007 Record: 73-87 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Aaron Harang, Jake Westbrook, Aaron
Cook, Noah Lowry, Shawn Hill and Dustin Moseley.
Bullpen: Joaquin Benoit, Trevor Hoffman, Peter Moylan,
Brandon Lyon, Chris Bootcheck, Chad Qualls and J.C. Romero.
Projected Lineup: Chone Figgins/Jason Michaels (LF),
Joe Mauer (C), Prince Fielder (1B), Mike Lowell (3B), Jermaine Dye (RF),
Willy Tavares/Kenny Lofton (CF), Mark Ellis (2B) and David Eckstein
(SS).
Strengths:
Fielder is a monstrous power hitter
playing in the ideal ballpark. He goes from an MLB ballpark with a
LH HR factor of 99 to a custom-built "House That Prince Built" in Corona
with a factor of 141. What does this mean? Well, to the
delight of Steve Osborne, expect a
repeat of last year's "David Ortiz Circus." My
prediction is that
Fielder will hit 72 home runs this season. The big man is
surrounded by capable hitters as well, which means this team could
easily lead
the league in runs scored. The Corona bullpen is ridiculously
loaded, with far more quality relievers than any team could ever reasonably use. Unless McGowan plans on using a 13-man pitching staff,
one of these guys will be taking up space on the reserve roster, which
is almost a gluttonous example of excess.
Weaknesses:
McGowan paid a ginormous price for
pitching this winter, doling out $16 million for #4 starters Cook and Westbrook (a
$50 million commitment over the next three seasons.) And yet,
despite all that money-throwing, the starting rotation still doesn't
leave you breathless. Harang is an ace by even Tony Chamra's
definition of the word, and Cook and Westbrook are
solid inning-eaters, but they all may struggle in this ballpark. The back half of the starting lineup is a little weak as
well, although with a deep bench, that shouldn't be a major problem.
Outlook:
In many ways, the '08 Confederates
remind me a lot of the '07 Badgers: one ridiculously monstrous power hitter, drastic ballpark
dimensions, one strong ace pitcher followed by a bunch of
solid-yet-unexciting inning-eaters, and a strong bullpen. If that
comparison holds, then I'm sure McGowan would be pleased with similar
results.
Prediction:
2nd place. Thanks in part to playing in a league with an uneven
schedule, and in a division that includes the New Milford Blazers, the
Confederates will win the OL wild card. They will then sweep their division
rivals, the Salem Cowtippers, in a Division Series managed by my MP.
They will then continue to follow in the Badgers' footsteps by becoming
yet another wild card winner representing the Ozzie League in the World
Series. There, they will have the privilege of losing to the
Ridgebacks, as Ryan Braun wins the World Series MVP by batting .600 with
5 homers and 15 RBI in the series.
New Hope Badgers
Owner: Tony Badger
2007 Record: 95-65 (2nd place, OL champions)
Projected Rotation: Chris Young, Joe Blanton, Andy
Pettitte and Doug Davis.
Bullpen: Jason Isringhausen, Chris Ray, Ron Villone,
Scott Proctor and Chad Cordero.
Projected Lineup: Mike Lamb/Morgan Ensberg (3B), Grady
Sizemore (CF), David Ortiz (1B), Miguel Tejada (SS), Marco Scutaro/Ryan
Ludwick (LF), Ty Wigginton/Greg Dobbs (2B), Darin Erstad/Craig Monroe (RF)
and Yorvit Torrealba/Ronny
Paulino (C).
Strengths:
If Young continues to ignore ballpark
factors, he could be a candidate to win the OL Cy Young this season.
Adding Blanton and Pettitte gives the New Hope
rotation three quality starters. Isringhausen could be every bit
as dominant for the '08 Badgers as Mariano Rivera was for the '07 team.
And while Ortiz probably won't hit 79 home runs again, he should enjoy
another monster season.
Weaknesses:
What happened to the Badgers' offense?
This team led the Ozzie League in run-scoring last year, with 887.
This year's version will be hard-pressed to score more than 100 fewer
runs. Barry Bonds is gone, leaving an enormous hole in the
outfield that is being filled by guys with names like Scataro and
Ludwick. That's a pretty drastic drop-off. Sizemore had a
disappointing year, and Michael Cuddyer's production in right field has
been replaced by some nightmarish combination of Erstad, Monroe and Dave
Roberts. Tejada replaces
Felipe Lopez at short, but it's not as much of an upgrade as you might
think. And once you get past Tejada in the lineup, it's pretty
much clear sailing the rest of the way. The same goes for the
bullpen, where Isringhausen is the only real threat of the bunch.
And although Badger shelled out huge bucks for Davis, he's a
back-of-the-rotation starter with back-of-the-rotation numbers.
Outlook:
Tony Badger always finds a way to field a
competitive team, no matter what his team may look like on paper.
This year, Badger will have his work cut out for him, as this looks like
a .500 team (at best) on paper. If Badger decides to cut bait at
some point and focus on '09, there isn't a lot of trade bait here for
contending teams to fight over. Ensberg, Lamb, Scutaro, Torralba,
Cordero, Proctor and Villone are the '08 free agents, and none are
likely to bring a ton of value in trade. But if Badger decides to
pull out all the stops and "go for it," he has a wealth of farm talent
with which to deal, including Aaron Cunningham, Charlie Fermaint, Cole
Gillespie, Hector Gomez, Javy Herrera, Michael Hollimon, Jamie Richmond
and Pat Venditte. (No, I don't know who any of those guys are,
either. But I guarantee they'll fetch a ton in trade!)
Prediction:
3rd place. The Badgers just have too many holes to fill before
they could be considered serious contenders for a playoffs spot.
Expect this team to finish somewhere around .500 as they set themselves
up for a run at another OL championship in '09.
New Milford Blazers
Owners: Anthony Peburn
(and, to some small extent, Billy Baseball)
2007 Record: 47-113 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Micah Owings, Jason Hirsch, Sergio
Mitre, Jon Lieber and Brad Thompson.
Bullpen: Hideki Okajima, Ryan Franklin, Justin Speier,
Jared Burton, Damaso Marte, Cha Seung Baek.
Projected Lineup: Aki Iwamura (2B), Willie Harris/Skip
Schumaker (CF), Garrett Anderson (LF), Carlos Delgado (1B), Jack Cust (RF),
Jeff Keppinger/Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B), Alex Gonzalez/John McDonald (SS),
Josh Phelps/Dioner Navarro (C).
Strengths:
A kick-ass bullpen. Peburn went out
of his way to stockpile relief pitchers this winter. No doubt the
purpose behind this strategy is to flip all of these relievers for
low-cost fliers later in the year. Another strength is watching
Owings hit. That should be fun.
Weaknesses: Where to begin? This team took an entire year off, and
were so awful they nearly broke the record for losses in a single
season. Yet, after a full, solid year of rebuilding they are no
closer to being a contending team now than they were a year ago.
When the ace of your starting rotation would be a #5 spot starter on
most other teams, that's not a good sign. When your #3 hitter is
named Garrett Anderson, that's not good, either. When Jack Cust is
your everyday right fielder...not good. I could go on and on, but
it would be too much fun, and I'd like to keep this as brief as
possible.
Outlook: Two years ago, when Peburn stripped this team of any and all
young talent, he assured the league that his team would be "competitive"
in 2008. Now, it's possible that what he meant was that his team
would "compete" for the #1 farm pick in 2009. And if that's the
case, then he made a compelling argument. But not only won't this
team compete for a division title in 2008, but they should finish with
100+ losses. Which means Peburn will be paying $100 to my favorite
charity.
Prediction: 4th place. Peburn, please make your check out to the
American Cancer Society.
Ravenswood Infidels
Owner: Brian "Skizm" Potrafka
2007 Record: 91-69 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Roy Halladay, Mark Buehrle, Fausto
Carmona and Jamie Moyer.
Bullpen: J.J. Putz, Bobby Howry, Vinnie Chulk, Scott
Downs, Rodrigo Lopez, Cla Meredith and Kerry Wood.
Projected Lineup: Robinson Cano (2B), Luke Scott (LF),
Derrek Lee (1B), Bobby Abreu (RF), Edwin Encarnacion (3B), Jason Varitek
(C), Jose Bautista (CF) and Orlando Cabrera (SS).
Strengths:
Halladay, Buehrle and Carmona are all
innings-eating animals who can each contend for the OL Cy Young award.
The bullpen is very strong, led by Putz and Howry. And the lineup
has few weaknesses from one-through-six, with Cano and Lee possibly
contending for an MVP award by the end of the year.
Weaknesses: A lack of depth. The rotation takes a huge nosedive
after Carmona, and there is a steep decline after the #6 batter in the
lineup. As in 2007, the Infidels may be a better
post-season team (when depth is less of an issue) than they are during the regular season.
Outlook: Both the Infidels and Irish Rebels have three great starting
pitchers, a dominant bullpen and four or five really good hitters.
The difference between these two teams is negligible, which means it is
going to be a stressful year for Potrafka. And we all know how
well he deals with stress!
Prediction: 1st place. Whenever two teams look this similar on
paper, the fate of the season usually rests upon which team is able to
make better trades during the season and push his team over the top.
And we all know Jim Doyle's track record in that regard.
Manchester Irish Rebels
Owner: Jim Doyle
2007 Record: 70-90 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: C.C. Sabathia, Scott Kazmir, Cole
Hamels and Jorge Sosa.
Bullpen: Jonathan Papelbon, Brian Fuentes, Lee Gardner,
Leo Nunez and Joe Smith.
Projected Lineup: Brian Roberts (2B), B.J. Upton (CF),
Carlos Pena (1B), Alfonso Soriano (LF), Franklin Gutierrez/Nick Markakis
(RF), Ivan Rodriguez (C), Rich Aurilia (3B) and Eric Bruntlett (SS).
Strengths:
The front three starters in the Manchester
rotation compare with any other in the entire BDBL. Sabathia,
Kazmir and Hamels are all big-time lefty power-pitchers, which is a
great thing to have in Manchester's lefty-friendly ballpark.
Papelbon is a game-changing closer, and the first five spots in the
lineup are very strong.
Weaknesses: Jim Doyle traded Matt Cain for Jonathan Papelbon. Let me
repeat that, so that it sinks in: Jim Doyle traded Matt Cain for
Jonathan Papelbon. Can you imagine how good this team may have
been with Cain instead of Papelbon? Without Cain, the Irish Rebels
are about 250 innings short of having a full starting rotation.
Where Doyle will find those 250 innings is a mystery. The Rebs
could also use a major upgrade at catcher, third base and shortstop.
Outlook: Last year, I predicted that Manchester would win this
division. Instead, they finished in third place, and lost 89+
games for the eighth year in a row. This year, the competition in
the Benes Division appears to be a little tighter. The season-long
pennant race between Doyle and Skizm this season will be the stuff of
legend.
Prediction: 2nd place. The Rebs certainly have enough "star power"
to contend for the division title, and they should give the Infidels a
run for their money. But in the end, it will come down to which
team has the best trade bait to offer. Manchester has Angel
Villalona; Ravenswood has Jordan Schafer and Jeff Manship. In the
end, I think Ravenswood wins that battle.
Marlboro Hammerheads
Owner: Ken "The Shark"
Kaminski
2007 Record: 61-99 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Barry Zito, Shaun Marcum, Kyle
Lohse, Phil Hughes, Randy Wolf and Danny Cabrera.
Bullpen: Bobby Jenks, Mike Timlin, Brandon Morrow,
Franklin Morales, Latroy Hawkins and Kevin Gregg.
Projected Lineup: Luis Castillo (2B), Matt Stairs (LF),
Paul Konerko/Scott Hatteberg (1B), Vernon Wells/Randy Winn (CF), Aubrey
Huff (3B), Josh Bard/Jamie Burke (C) and Yuniesky Betancourt (SS).
Strengths:
Depth. The starting rotation is
unspectacular, but solid. The bullpen is filled with more quality
arms than any team would reasonably ever need. And the bench is
filled with several players who would likely be starters for other
teams.
Weaknesses: The starting rotation lacks the type of front-line ace you
usually see on contending teams. And the lineup lacks that
middle-of-the-order thumper whose name appears in the year-end MVP
balloting or mid-season all-star roster.
Outlook: Sharky Kaminski spent all of last year building for the
future, but the future hasn't arrived just yet. These things take
time, and Kaminski basically stripped his entire roster down to nothing
a year ago. With the advent of success-related incentives and
"sticky" bonuses and penalties, Kaminski decided he'd better stop
messing around and put a decent team on the field for '08. All
things considered, this isn't a bad team at all. It's just not a
very good team, either.
Prediction: 3rd place. The Hammerheads will be hard-pressed to sniff
.500 this year, but with a little luck they could make a run at it.
Las Vegas Flamingos
Owner: John Bochicchio
2007 Record: 81-79 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Brad Penny, Chien-Ming Wang, Lenny
DiNardo, Josh Fogg and Matt Morris.
Bullpen: Rafael Betancourt, Saul Rivera and Oscar
Villarreal.
Projected Lineup: Johnny Damon (CF), Chase Utley (2B),
Hideki Matsui (LF), Travis Hafner (1B), Delmon Young/Luis Gonzalez (RF), Mark DeRosa
(3B), John Buck (C) and Alfredo Amezaga (SS).
Strengths:
Penny and Wang form a nice one-two that
any team would like to have at the top of the rotation. Betancourt
is a top-notch closer, and Utley is still the best second baseman in
baseball.
Weaknesses: Pretty much everything else. When Lenny DiNardo is your
de facto #3 starter, that's a tough hurdle to climb. Damon is no
longer the leadoff man he used to be, and the bottom half of this lineup
is far below average.
Outlook: The Flamingos will lose a lot of players to free agency at the
end of this season, including Damon, Gonzalez, Buck and Matsui.
There's a lot of trade value there, and if used wisely, Vegas could be
in a good position to compete in 2009. Unfortunately, tying up
$24.5 million in salary (and $75.5M over the next three years) by
signing three high-risk "Type H" free agents this winter hurts those
odds of competing.
Prediction: 4th place. Why Bochicchio chose to lock up three
high-priced, high-risk players for the next three years at this stage of
his franchise's success cycle is beyond me. Although there is no
dominant team in this division, the Flamingos are in no position to
compete. All that money would have been better spent elsewhere --
or simply set aside to spend on the Class of '09.
San Antonio Broncs
Owner: Greg Newgard
2007 Record: 78-82 (tied for 2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Danny Haren, John Lackey, Jeremy
Guthrie, Orlando Hernandez and Wandy Rodriguez.
Bullpen: Huston Street, Trevor Hoffman, Casey Jansssen,
Renyel Pinto, Matt Guerrier, Guillermo Mota and Ryan Rowland-Smith.
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins (SS), Conor Jackson
(1B), Adam Dunn (LF), Austin Kearns (RF), Travis Buck/David Murphy (CF),
Casey Blake (3B), Rod Barajas/Ryan Doumit (C) and Jose Lopez/Brendan
Ryan (2B).
Strengths:
Newgard laid out a crapload of money on
pitching this winter, so this team's strength had better be pitching.
Fortunately for Newgard, it is. Haren and Lackey form one of the
best one-two combos in the league, and the rest of the rotation is
filled with pitchers with sub-4.00 CERAs. The bullpen is
excellent, led by two world-class closers and backed by several
capable setup men. And the lineup revolves around NL MVP Jimmy Rollins,
who should be loads of fun to watch.
Weaknesses: Once you get past Rollins, the rest of the lineup is rather
ordinary. Other than the Buck/Murphy platoon in center, the other
positions should perform below league-average. And with the team
moving into a very pitcher-friendly ballpark that is especially
oppressive to right-handed power hitters, several of the hitters in San
Antonio's lineup may not come anywhere near their MLB numbers.
Outlook: The race between San Antonio and Bear Country looks too close
to call. Unfortunately, I have to call it anyway. Both teams
have similar starting rotations, with two or three bona-fide aces at the
top. San Antonio gets the edge with their #4 and #5 starters.
Both teams have top-notch bullpens, but once again, San Antonio gains
the edge. And offensively, both teams have one MVP candidate
(A-Rod for Bear Country, Rollins for San Antonio), surrounded by a bunch
of decent-yet-unspectacular bats.
Prediction:
1st place. I've changed my mind about this selection more times
than Sharky at a Baskin-Robbins. But in the end, I think San
Antonio's pitching will push them over the top, and Newgard will finally earn
his first division title after so many close calls.
Bear Country Jamboree
Owner: Matt Clemm
2007 Record: 78-82 (tied for 2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Brandon Webb, Tim Hudson, A.J.
Burnett, Paul Maholm and Chad Gaudin.
Bullpen: Matt Herges, Rafael Soriano, Michael Wuertz,
Brad Hennessey, Kyle Snyder, Joe Saunders and Eric O'Flaherty.
Projected Lineup: Sean Casey/Dmitri Young (1B), Carlos
Guillen (SS), Alex Rodriguez (3B), Corey Hart (CF), Shannon Stewart/Jonny
Gomes (LF), Ross Gload/Rajai Davis (RF), Jose Vidro/Kevin Frandsen (2B)
and A.J. Pierzynski/Mike Redmond (C).
Strengths:
With Webb, Hudson and Burnett, the
Jamboree have three aces at the top of their rotation, capable of
matching up against any other front three starters in the league.
The bullpen has good depth, and A-Rod is (as always) a huge weapon in
the middle of the Jamboree lineup.
Weaknesses: A-Rod may see a lot of free passes to first this year, as his
supporting cast isn't all that threatening. Casey and Young form a
good platoon, and Guillen and Hart are above-average hitters, but the
lineup really takes a nosedive after that. The back of the
rotation is thin, and the bullpen lacks a dominant go-to closer.
Outlook: The Jamboree could very well ride their four star players
(Webb, Hudson, Burnett and Rodriguez) straight to the post-season.
But it won't be easy. To make it easier, Clemm will have to swing
some savvy trades. The problem is that there isn't a lot of trade
bait on the Jamboree roster. None of the 15 prospects on the Bear
Country farm are likely to rank among the top 100 prospects in baseball
this year. And the team's most valuable young asset, Francisco
Liriano, has been branded all but untradeable (and with only a four-year
contract, his trade value is a little less than it was last year.)
Prediction: 2nd place. It is going to be a knock-down/drag-out dogfight between the Jamboree and Broncs this year. Which team
emerges on top is anybody's guess at this point. If we simmed
1,000 seasons, each team would likely win the division 500 times.
So it will all boil down to luck.
Los Altos Undertakers
Owner: Jeff Paulson
2007 Record: 99-61 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Jeremy Bonderman,
Jared Weaver and Matt Garza.
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Joaquim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Heilman,
Pedro Feliciano and Jack Taschner.
Projected Lineup: Rickie Weeks (2B), Kevin Youkilis
(3B), Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Josh Hamilton/Jose Guillen (RF), Hunter
Pence (LF), Andruw Jones/Michael Bourn (CF), J.J. Hardy/Ryan Theriot
(SS) and Javier Valentin/Gerald Laird (C).
Strengths:
A good old-fashioned Undertakers-style
completely ridiculously dominant, kick-ass, take-no-prisoners bullpen.
Measuring bullpen greatness is always a tricky endeavor, but if such
a measurement were possible, this bullpen would very likely rank at the
top of the all-time list. The Undertakers have no fewer than FIVE
relievers who would be closers for most other teams in the league (and
that's after trading Francisco Cordero!)
That is far beyond overkill. And the Undertakers lineup is very
strong and deep at every position.
Weaknesses: Where on earth is this team going to find enough innings from
its starting rotation? The four starters listed above threw only
620.1 innings in MLB, which translates to 682.1 innings of BDBL usage.
If you figure a BDBL team needs an average of six innings per start for
a 160-game season, that's 960 innings. So the Undertakers are a whopping 339.2 innings
short!
Outlook: Just one year ago, the Los Altos starting rotation appeared to
be poised not only to dominate the 2007 season, but every following
season for the next several years. But a funny thing happened over
the past year, as the Curse of Monty Burns hit the Undertakers hard.
Paulson's $21 million investment, Chris Carpenter, was shut down in
April and lost for the season. (Of course, Paulson was able to
re-sign him for $16M less this winter.) Weaver ran into some
health problems as well, and didn't perform as well as expected in his
first full MLB season. Jeremy Sowers, Garza and Mike Pelfrey
didn't advance as quickly as expected. Josh Johnson was also lost
for the season with injuries. And Jason Schmidt was also injured for
most of the season, and traded early in the year. The future still
looks bright for Los Altos, but 2008 could be a rough year.
Prediction: 3rd place. The question of where the Undertakers finish
this season depends on where they'll get those 339+ innings. If
those innings are filled by horrendous #5 starters acquired from the
free agent garbage dump, then those games will be out of reach before
that stellar bullpen gets the opportunity to shine. If Paulson
loosens his grip on some of his prized youngsters, and trades them for
quality starting pitching, the Undertakers could very well win the
division crown this year. But that is unlikely to happen, as Jeff
loves his youngsters too much to part with them. So look for Los
Altos to perform better than anyone expects, but not well enough to make
it to the post-season.
Sylmar Padawans
Owner: John Duel
2007 Record: 63-97 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Jon Garland, Paul Byrd, Tom Glavine,
Woody Williams and Kam Loe.
Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez, Ryan Dempster, Doug
Brocail, C.J. Wilson, David Riske and Yorman Bazardo.
Projected Lineup: Ichiro Suzuki (CF), Carl Crawford
(LF), Brandon Phillips (2B), Garrett Atkins (3B), Frank Thomas (1B),
Cliff Floyd/Marlon Byrd (RF), Jason Bartlett (SS) and Rob Bowen/Miguel
Olivo (C).
Strengths:
Ichiro and Crawford form a pretty neat top
of the lineup, and Duel should have loads of fun stealing lots of bases.
Weaknesses: Pretty much the rest of the team. Garland is a decent
#3/#4 starter pushed into the role of ace. And the bottom four in
the rotation consists of aging, upper-30's/lower-40's placeholders.
Not the type of pitching staff you'd like to see on a last-place team.
The lineup lacks power, and the bottom half of this lineup is truly
horrific.
Outlook: Last year, the Padawans performed far below their expected
performance and finished with 97 losses on the season. This year,
they could very easily lose another 97 games. The difference is
that it won't be a surprise this time. When a team is this bad,
you have to look at what they have to offer in trade, in order to
improve relatively quickly. Unfortunately, Sylmar has little to
offer contending teams. Rodriguez is probably the best trade bait
on the roster in terms of talent, but at salaries of $6.1M and $7.6M
over the next two seasons, few teams would likely be willing to take
him. Crawford and Suzuki are in the same boat. It may be a
while before we see the Pads back on top.
Prediction: 4th place, with triple-digit losses.
Allentown Ridgebacks
Owner: Tom DiStefano
2007 Record: 71-89 (tied, 3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, Felix
Hernandez, Oliver Perez, Yovani Gallardo and Scott Baker.
Bullpen: Heath Bell, Jeremy Accardo, Randy Johnson,
Justin Miller and Andrew Sonnanstine.
Projected Lineup: Kelly Johnson (2B), Barry Bonds (LF),
Ryan Braun/Troy Glaus (3B), Jorge Posada (C), Ken Griffey, Jr./Damian
Easley (RF), Cody Ross/Aaron Rowand (CF), Jack Wilson (SS) and Billy
Butler (1B).
Strengths:
Where to begin? How about the
offense, which includes no fewer than THIRTEEN hitters with an OPS of
900+ against left-handed pitchers? And against righties, NINE
hitters with an OPS over 850. This offense is so deep that I
didn't even list Moises Alou (1056/864 splits) above. I didn't know
where to put him. If you tally up all of the MLB '07 stats for the
Ridgebacks, they hit .283/.364/.488 as a team, and hit 315 home runs --
65 more than any other team in the league. Then, there's the pitching. Peavy is the
odds-on favorite to win the EL Cy Young award following his NL Cy Young
season. And he is backed by several dominant arms in the rotation.
The bullpen is also filled with dominant pitchers from both sides of the
rubber, led by Heath Bell, who came out of absolutely nowhere to become
one of the best Chapter Three free agent pick-ups in league history.
Weaknesses:
If you see any, let me know.
Outlook:
The Ridgebacks are not only the best team
in the BDBL, but no other team is even close. It's hard to know
when things got so far out of control. Perhaps it was when Ed
traded Ryan Braun for David Eckstein. Or perhaps it was when Skizm
traded Tim Lincecum for Frank Thomas. Maybe it was when John Gill
traded Yovani Gallardo for Roy Oswalt. Or maybe
it was when Tom picked up Heath Bell -- a pitcher that was passed up 840
times before the season, and for two free agent transaction periods
after that -- at the Chapter Three deadline last year, and Bell
magically transformed into a princess overnight. Whatever the case
may be, the Allentown Ridgebacks are back, and they're fully loaded to
win championship trophy #3.
Prediction:
1st place, and the BDBL championship,
without breaking a sweat.
Great Lakes Sphinx
Owner: Scott Romonosky
2007 Record: 71-89 (tied for 3rd place)
Projected Rotation: John Smoltz, John Maine, Justin
Germano, Boof Bonser, Matt Belisle and Matt Chico.
Bullpen: Carlos Marmol, Billy Wagner, Luis Vizcaino,
Angel Guzman, Zach Miner and Joel Zumaya.
Projected Lineup: Eric Byrnes (CF), Shane Victorino (RF),
Justin Morneau (1B), Jeff Kent (2B), Carlos Lee (LF), Pedro Feliz/Chad
Tracy (3B), Michael Young (SS) and Brian Schneider/Miguel Montero (C).
Strengths:
Two aces in the rotation, two aces in the
bullpen and several big hitters in the lineup. Playing in a less
drastic custom-built ballpark (note: their old ballpark model was
Arlington Stadium), the problems Great Lakes' pitching staff encountered
last year should be a thing of the past. Even with the
less-friendly park, this lineup is capable of scoring 850 runs, easily.
Finally, Great Lakes has tremendous depth, with over 8,200 plate
appearances on offense. Since the league leader in this category
last year had only 6,500 PAs, this is just a tiny bit of overkill.
Weaknesses:
Bonser, Belisle and Chico each sport a
CERA over 5.00. Right now, that is the only thing separating this
team from a playoffs-caliber ballclub.
Outlook: As we all know, the Sphinx are the only franchise remaining in
the BDBL that has yet to visit the post-season. Can Romonosky finally put that label to rest in the season's tenth year? Well, I
predicted he would last year, and you see how that went.
Prediction: 2nd place. For the second year in a row, I think this
looks like a playoff-caliber team. But the back end of this
starting rotation will hold this team back from that goal. Until
that problem is fixed, Sphinx fans will once again be forced to watch
the November madness from afar. (And believe me, that's not as bad
as you think.)
Kansas Law Dogs
Owner: Chris Luhning
2007 Record: 94-66 (1st place, BDBL champions)
Projected Rotation: Johan Santana, Matt Cain, Rich
Hill, Brian Bannister and Anthony Reyes.
Bullpen: Takashi Saito, Ryan Madson, Fernando Rodney,
Scott Linebrink and Taylor Tankersley.
Projected Lineup: Brendan Harris (SS), David DeJesus
(LF), David Wright (3B), Carlos Beltran (CF), Mike Jacobs/Lyle Overbay
(1B), Scott Hairston/Rob Mackowiak (RF), Chris Snyder (C), Tad Iguchi
(2B).
Strengths:
The starting rotation is very strong (for
as long as Santana remains in it) thanks to the pre-season trade with
Jim Doyle that netted Cain in the biggest heist since New Amsterdam
settlers purchased Manhattan for two wooden nickels and a string of
beads. Saito posted some phenomenal numbers in MLB last year, and
should be every bit as dominant in the BDBL.
Weaknesses: The Kansas lineup, which scored 885 runs last season en route
to a BDBL championship, now looks more like a 750-run lineup, tops.
Wright and Beltran are still all-star-caliber thumpers in the heart of
the lineup, but they're surrounded by below-average run-producers.
Outlook: The Law Dogs paid a hefty price for their championship last
year by trading for Santana, who comprises nearly one-third of this
team's total payroll. With a little more spending money, and in a
division that doesn't include the Allentown Ridgebacks, the Law Dogs
might look like a contender. Instead, they'll undoubtedly be
trading Santana at some point soon to load up for another run in 2009.
Prediction: 3rd place. If Chris Luhning was able to add Matt Cain in
exchange for a relief pitcher, what on earth will he get for Santana?
Kazmir, Hamels and Upton?
Villanova Mustangs
Owner: Tony Chamra
2007 Record: 78-82 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Chad Billingsley, Zach Greinke,
Kevin Millwood, Dontrelle Willis, Kip Wells and Livan Hernandez.
Bullpen: Jason Frasor, Brett Myers, Darren Oliver, Rich
Harden and Jason Grilli.
Projected Lineup: Matt Diaz/Andre Ethier (LF), Brian
Giles/Bill Hall (CF), Nick Swisher (RF), Casey Kotchman (1B), Dave
Ross/Brian McCann (C), Scott Rolen (3B), Julio Lugo (SS) and Aaron Hill
(2B).
Strengths:
Depth on offense. Aside from the
eleven players listed above, the Mustangs also have Jeremy Hermida
(813/889 splits), Omar Infante (796 vs. LH), Jacque Jones (763/729) and
Scott Spiezio (832 vs. LH.) You want to know why it was so
difficult for you to find any hitters with more than 50 PA's on the free
agent market this winter? It's because Chamra's hogging them all.
The 'Stangs have a whopping 7,606 PAs on their 35-man roster. (But
believe it or not, that's only good for fifth in the league.)
Weaknesses: Despite all that depth, it's all about quantity over quality
in Villanova. The lineup still has glaring holes at shortstop and
second base, no true leadoff hitter and no big power threats. And
the starting rotation is missing an ace, and includes several pitchers
who are only useful for providing innings.
Outlook: Given that Chamra spent several years wallowing in last place
while stockpiling young talent, it is shocking to see the Mustangs in
such sad shape two years after winning the BDBL championship.
There is still ample young talent on this roster, and the potential
always exists for those young players to bust out and fulfill all that
potential one of these years. But it hasn't happened yet.
Maybe next year.
Prediction: 4th place. The Mustangs will spend yet another year
trying to sell their excess veterans in exchange for more young
potential, and hope to catch lightning in a bottle one more time.
Southern Cal Slyme
Owner: Bob Sylvester, Sr.
2007 Record: 90-70 (2nd place, EL wild card)
Projected Rotation: James Shields, Ted Lilly, Jason
Marquis, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens and Dave Bush.
Bullpen: Russ Springer, Tony Pena, Jose Valverde, Juan
Cruz, Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler and Micah Bowie.
Projected Lineup: Hanley Ramirez (SS), Ryan Zimmerman
(3B), Victor Martinez (C), Magglio Ordonez (RF), Torii Hunter (CF), Raul
Ibanez/Ryan Spillborghs (LF), Adam LaRoche/Ryan Garko (1B), Ronnie
Belliard/Ryan Freel (2B).
Strengths:
Ramirez, Martinez and Ordonez could well
be in the starting lineup for the Eck League all-stars this summer, and
all three should rank prominently in the year-end EL MVP balloting.
The Slyme lead the league in plate appearances, so there's plenty of
depth on the bench, and plenty of good platoon match-ups available from
game to game. In fact, the Slyme's reserve roster will be better
than most teams' benches.
Weaknesses: As deep as their offense is, the Slyme's pitching staff is
equally thin. Despite the fact that SoCal ranks among the league
leaders in innings (with over 1,700), there just aren't enough
quality innings here. That said, you could do far worse than
this starting rotation.
Outlook:
After taking last year off, and
winning the EL wild card by accident ("Whoops!"), the Slyme are in good
position to "go for it all" in 2008. They have the hitting, they
have the bullpen, and they have enough starting pitching to win the
division. How far they get beyond that is up to the Baseball Gods.
And you know how the Baseball Gods adore Tom.
Prediction:
1st place. My prediction is that at the Chapter Three deadline,
Bob will trade Yu Darvish to Jim Doyle in exchange for Scott Kazmir, and
blow this division race wide open.
Nashville Funkadelic
Owner: Steve Osborne
2007 Record: 97-63 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Greg Maddux, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ben
Sheets, Jason Bergman and Nate Robertson.
Bullpen: Pat Neshek, George Sherrill, Jesus Colome,
Chris Schroder and Octavio Dotel.
Projected Lineup: Curtis Granderson (CF), Jose Reyes
(SS), Ryan Howard (1B), Manny Ramirez (LF), Dan Uggla (2B), Jason Bay (RF),
Wilson Betemit/Mark Loretta (3B), Bengie Molina (C).
Strengths:
Granderson and Reyes are two exciting
young ballplayers, and Howard and Ramirez are a powerful combination in
this lineup. With so many sluggers hitting in such a tiny
ballpark, there will be plenty of free souvenirs for Funk fans sitting
in the bleachers. The Nashville bullpen is very strong and deep,
and the rotation is solid for the most part.
Weaknesses:
For the least part, the rotation is not so
solid. Bergman and Robertson may need to be treated for whiplash
by the first month of the season after watching so many balls fly out
over their shoulders. And there just aren't enough innings here to
last an entire season, which means either the Funk will have to trade
for a quality starter (and best of luck with that) or scrounge around
the free agent landfill for one (in which case, our thoughts and
prayers are with the fans of Nashville.)
Outlook:
A lot has changed in Nashville over the past two months. Chipper
Jones is gone; replaced with Ramirez. Bay and Reyes aren't half
the men they used to be. Jason Jennings' monstrous salary is
gone, but his quality innings were never replaced. Joe Nathan is
gone, but he's been ably replaced with Sherrill. The Ichiro Era
has ended, but the Dice-K Era has just begun. A lot of changes:
some for the better, and some for the worse.
Prediction:
2nd place. The Funk don't have the pitching or hitting depth to
compete against the Slyme this year, but they should hold their own and
finish above .500.
St. Louis Apostles
Owner: Bobby Sylvester, Jr.
2007 Record: 86-74 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Tom Gorzelanny, Tim Wakefield, Kyle
Kendrick, Jesse Litsch, Brandon McCarthy and Miguel Batista.
Bullpen: Ubaldo Jimenez, Al Reyes, Jamie Walker, Jeremy
Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Dustin Nippert, Shawn Chacon and Joba Chamberlain.
Projected Lineup: Dustin Pedroia (2B), Rafael Furcal
(SS), Albert Pujols (1B), Matt Holliday (LF), Adrian Beltre (3B), Melky
Cabrera/Reed Johnson (CF), Mark Teahen/Emil Brown (RF) and Johnny
Estrada (C).
Strengths:
Pujols is still the man. Even after
suffering through the worst, most disappointing, most inexplicable
season in BDBL history, he owns a career average of .325/.409/.611 in
the BDBL. And he's still only 28 years old. This year,
Pujols is backed by NL MVP Holliday, who should provide plenty of
protection in the lineup. And the Hippos-- er, Apostles -- are
well stocked throughout the lineup, with only one hole at catcher.
(But who doesn't have at least one hole at catcher this year?)
Weaknesses:
The starting rotation may be the worst in
the Eck League. Gorzelanny is the de facto ace of the staff,
despite pedestrian numbers that make him look more like a #3/#4 starter.
This team was so desperate for starting pitching, they went "Type H" on
a 41-year-old Wakefield, who posted a 4.76 ERA last season.
Outlook:
Last year, I wrote in this same exact space, "It is tough to win without starting pitching."
Well, a year later the same sentiment applies. The Apostles tried to
win without starting pitching last year, and finished 12 games over
.500. That is probably the high mark for this team, although I
would bet the "under."
Prediction:
3rd place. The only thing keeping this team out of last place is
the presence of the Sea Cats.
South Carolina Sea Cats
Owner: Tony DeCastro
2007 Record: 70-90 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Gil Meche, Jarrod Washburn, Mike
Mussina, Chuck James, Edgar Gonzalez and Josh Towers.
Bullpen: Matt Capps, Matt Lindstrom, Brian Shouse and
Rudy Seanez.
Projected Lineup: Matt Murton/Geoff Jenkins (LF), Hank
Blalock (3B), Shawn Green/Kevin Mench (RF), Jason Giambi/Dan Johnson
(1B), Ian Kinsler/Kaz Matsui (2B), Jim Edmonds/Corey Patterson (CF),
Paul Lo Duca/Mike Rabelo (C), Juan Uribe (SS).
Strengths:
Hmm. Well...yeah.
Weaknesses:
If you take the entire 35-man roster and add up their MLB stats, the Sea
Cats hit .258/.323/.415 in MLB '07 as a team. That's not good.
And if you tallied up all their pitchers, they owned a 4.39 ERA last
year (19th in the league), with a league-leading 1.2 homers allowed per
nine innings. That's also not good.
Outlook:
It's hard to believe this team won a division just two years ago.
If you look at the roster above, there isn't much room for hope, either.
Giambi, Mussina, Jenkins, Edmonds, Green, Lo Duca? These guys are
all on the wrong side of 30, and heading in the opposite direction of
usefulness. They are nothing but stopgap solutions -- and even in
that capacity, they aren't all that effective. These guys will not
keep this team out of the cellar. Blalock is now 27 years old, and
has yet to prove he can hit left-handed pitching. And every year,
his salary rises another $1.5 million. And it will keep rising
through the 2012 season. The Sea Cats are in desperate need of an
infusion of young talent, but don't have the resources to trade for such
a thing. And instead of spending money this winter on players who
might be useful down the road, DeCastro threw money at a bunch of
semi-warm bodies in an effort to stop the bleeding. Sometimes it's
better to simply bite the bullet and take the one-year hit so that you
don't have to repeat this process again next year.
Prediction:
4th place. But hey, at least they won't be the worst team in the
BDBL.
Akron Rÿche
Owner: D.J. Shepard
2007 Record: 86-74 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Javier Vazquez, Justin Verlander,
Carlos Villanueva, Braden Looper and Bronson Arroyo.
Bullpen: Rafael Perez, Jon Rauch, Scott Shields, Brian
Tallet, David Weathers, Tyler Yates, Justin Hampson, Joel Peralta, Aaron
Laffey, Taylor Buchholz.
Projected Lineup: Asdrubal Cabrera/Mark Grudzielanek
(2B), Milton Bradley (CF), Todd Helton (1B), Aramis Ramirez (3B), Brad
Hawpe/Dan Ortmeier (RF), Jason Kubel/Nate McLouth (LF), Jhonny Peralta
(SS) and Carlos Ruiz/Michael Barrett (C).
Strengths:
As always, Akron's starting rotation is
very strong, and an asset to the team. The bullpen is also very
strong, and unusually deep. The Ryche have more quality relievers
on this roster than any team could ever reasonably need. The
lineup is also strong, with no glaring holes from one through seven.
Weaknesses: There isn't one player in this lineup who is any threat to win
the EL MVP award. Instead, scoring runs will be more of a team
effort. (Is that a weakness?)
Outlook:
In nine seasons, the Ryche have finished above .500 eight times.
This franchise ranks #4 on the all-time wins list, and is the only
franchise in the BDBL to finish above .500 for the past seven seasons in
a row. There is no reason to expect that streak to end this year.
Or next.
Prediction:
1st place. Ever so quietly, D.J. Shepard fields a competitive team
year after year after year. This year will be no different.
As always, how far he advances beyond that will depend on how well
Allentown's players perform in the post-season. And we all know
how that usually goes.
Chicago Black Sox
Owner: John Gill
2007 Record: 84-76 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Roy Oswalt, Jeff Francis, Carlos
Zambrano and Jeff Suppan.
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Manny Delcarmen, Joe Beimel and
Derrick Turnbow.
Projected Lineup: Placido Polanco (2B), Norris
Hopper/JD Drew (CF), Mark Teixeira (1B), Vladimir Guerrero (RF), Khalil
Greene (SS), Ramon Castro/Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C), Melvin Mora (3B)
and Juan Pierre (LF).
Strengths:
Teixeira and Guerrero are a formidable duo
in the middle of the lineup, and the top of the Chicago rotation is very
strong. Nathan is also a game-changer at the head of the bullpen.
Weaknesses:
The Black Sox are still about 200 innings away from a full rotation, and
it is questionable at this point where those innings will come from.
The bullpen could use one more quality arm as well. And once you
get past the first four or five batters in the Chicago lineup, it is
clear sailing the rest of the way.
Outlook:
Moving into a more pitcher-friendly custom-built ballpark will help the
Chicago pitching staff -- most notably Oswalt and Francis. And as
always, the Black Sox will score plenty of runs this season. Which
means 2008 will involve yet another tight pennant race in the Hrbek
Division. Whereas Akron GM D.J. Shepard tends to "stand pat" when
it comes to trading, Gill is always ready and willing to deal. And
the Black Sox have plenty of trade bait at hand. The only question
is whether Gill is willing to sacrifice any good, young players for a
shot at beating the Ridgebacks in a short series in November.
Prediction:
2nd place. The Black Sox will have a
tough battle this year, both for the division crown and the wild card.
In the end, I believe Chicago will prevail in that wild card race, as
they have more trade bait to offer than the Sphinx, and Gill has more of
a proven track record of success at the trade table than Romonosky.
Again, how far the Black Sox advance in the post-season depends solely
on how well the Ridgebacks perform in a short series. If history
is any indication, expect a first-round exit for Chicago.
Cleveland Rocks
Owner: Mike Stein
2007 Record: 89-71 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Derek Lowe, Carlos Silva, Julian
Tavarez, Jose Contreras and Scott Olsen.
Bullpen: Andrew Brown, Tim Byrdak, Kevin Cameron, Kenny
Rogers and Santiago Casilla.
Projected Lineup: Russ Martin (C), Chipper Jones (3B),
Troy Tulowitzki (SS), Pat Burrell (LF), Jim Thome/Ryan Klesko (1B), Gary
Sheffield (RF), Gary Matthews (CF) and Freddy Sanchez (2B).
Strengths:
The strongest offense in the BDBL (outside
of Allentown) and the best shortstop in baseball. The Rocks rank
right behind the Ridgebacks with a team OPS of 840 (if you tally their
entire 35-man roster.) Martin, Jones, Tulowitzki and Burrell could
all appear in the mid-summer classic, and there is not one hole in this
lineup, as #8 hitter Sanchez would be a top-of-the-order hitter in many lineups.
Weaknesses: Pitching. After Lowe, the rest of the Cleveland rotation
is abysmal. Usually, a team can get away with that if their
offense and bullpen are strong, but the Cleveland bullpen is nothing
special. Stein spent $20 million this winter boosting the offense,
but spent nothing on pitching. The Rocks have spent a total of
$25.4 million on pitching, and $19 million of that is allocated to Lowe
and Rogers.
Outlook: The Rocks finally made the playoffs last year for the first
time in nine seasons. This year, they're going to have a tough
team repeating that trick. This team could very well score 850
runs, but will allow more than that. The best they can hope for is
to break even.
Prediction: 3rd place. Pitching is a somewhat important part of the
game of baseball. Atlanta Fire Ants
Owner: Gene Patterson
2007 Record: 58-102 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Sean Marshall, Ervin Santana, Mark
Hendrickson, John Danks and Kevin Correia.
Bullpen: Todd Jones, Jair Jurrjens.
Projected Lineup: Felipe Lopez (2B), Coco Crisp/Ryan
Church (CF), Gregg Zaun (C), Edgar Renteria (SS), Jeff Francoeur (CF),
Xavier Nady (LF), Richie Sexson (1B) and Joe Crede (3B).
Strengths:
I'm told that Todd Jones is a really nice
guy, and Zaun has good veteran leadership skills.
Weaknesses:
The entire active roster.
Outlook:
Wow. If you thought the '07 Blazers tested the limits of the
definition of "replacement-level team," take a look at this '08 Fire
Ants team. This is a truly awful team from one through twenty-five.
And unless something really strange happens (which tends to happen a lot
in DMB), Atlanta should break New Milford's record for losses in a
single season. However, not all is gloom-and-doom. There are
several young players who could play a part in a 2008/2009 Atlanta
revival, including John Danks, Rocco Baldelli, Coco Crisp, Francoeur, Ian Stewart,
Clay Buchholz, Joey Devine and others. With our new rules in
place, the Fire Ants could be looking at a 2008 penalty as steep as $5.5
million. They'd better turn it around in a hurry, or that penalty
will stick!
Prediction:
4th place. I don't know how this team will win more than 50 games
in 2008. I really can't even imagine it. I'm just glad I
don't have to play Atlanta this year. I'd gouge my eyes out if I
lost a single game to this team.
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