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Commish

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September, 2008

Time to Eat Some Crow

For the uninitiated (that would be you, Nic and Todd), this highly-popular annual article is dedicated to reviewing some of the quotes from our league message board over the past year and reflecting upon how foolish we all were.  Enjoy!

Big, fat first basemen (like Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder) tend to flame out pretty early. Prince is only signed through age 31, so he'll probably be okay. But Howard is signed through age 34. Vaughn was done at age 33, and Cecil was done at age 30. That's a bit of a red flag.

-- Me, 12/24/07

Big, fat Howard may have flamed out even earlier than I predicted.  He's hitting .227/.316/.475 in MLB this year (as of press time.)

I wouldn't really call keeping Harden ballsy more than I'd call it stubborn. I refuse to give up on Harden and Greinke. Screw it, I'll do down in flames if these guys don't fulfill their potential and stay healthy.

I think as Harden gets older they'll force him to stop being a pussy and either play through the discomfort or condition himself better, if possible.

-- Tony Chamra, 12/24/07

In retrospect, sticking with Harden (2.00 ERA in 126 IP, with 162 K's) and Greinke (3.86 ERA in 163+ IP, 146 K's) was neither "ballsy" nor "stubborn" -- it was brilliant!

...and [Scott] Romonosky also went Type H on a 41-year-old second baseman! [Jeff Kent.]

-- Me, 1/2/08

.302 .375 .500 .875 ain't bad AT ALL. [Jeff] Kent is still productive and will be next year or 2. I don't think going Type H is the worst thing in the world.

-- Matt Clemm, 1/2/08

Actually, I think it will work out for him or if someone goes a little higher. Kent was contemplating retiring this year, he puts up a solid year (for him) then retires, still only a 2-year commitment for a very good hitting 2B...Kent at $5.5m is a steal, this is where the 3-year signing took affect, no one wants that 3rd year from him. Suprised only $5.5m, figured $8m.

-- Sharky, 1/2/08

i think kent for 5.5 is a steal because he will retire before he becomes a big piece of crap

-- Bobby Sylvester, 1/3/08

Unfortunately for Scott, Kent (.275/.324/.410 on the season, with 11 homers in 432 AB's) turned into a big piece of crap one year ahead of schedule.  But the good news (for Scott) is that it's probably his last season.

Horrible beyond belief. I couldn't be more pissed. I want to throttle a carotid artery...It's ok to workout when you're entire head is purple right?  More creatine should help.  I'm out of here before I break shit or start carving words on my body.  Joyfully blessed merry new years to all. winky winky cutey cudddley smily...So why am I pissed I didn't get this load of crap? Because. Just because. Because I wanted him. I wanted to overpay for him. But somebody else wanted to overpay much more.
I should be greatful, but I just feel like an idiot in the middle of a bad poker game who hears the jackals howling and wants to use the table as a weapon...Never underestimate...oh never the f&ck mind.

-- Skizm, 1/3/08

Why was Skiz so pissed?  Because he didn't win the bidding for Aaron Cook.  Seriously.

It'll continue to be a joke, just like last year's disgrace. So much fun, like bad, bad poker. In one hour I've went from "might have a shot" to "not a chance".  My goals are a lot more modest now. Get close to .500, play spoiler. Cheer against teams I dislike. What a year to look forward to.

-- Skizm, three minutes later

Seriously, Aaron Cook.

Post-Aaron-Cook-less update: the Infidels are currently 80-52 on the season -- 19 games ahead of the next best team in the division.

Congratulations Ed. You thought it out, planned it out, and got er done!  I need 3 mf'ing starters. That ain't gonna happen. Season over for me.  Maybe I'll trade you some good players and become a surrogate Confederate Army fan. Or maybe I'll just stick my head in an oven this weekend and actively end this miserable joke.  Either way. Can't wait to wake up tommorow. Or the next day, and the one after that.

-- Skizm, 12 minutes later

Man, I'm really going to miss Brian when he finally goes on that shooting spree we've all been waiting for since the day he joined the league.

I'm curious about Mussina too. He's currently at $1.5M and I don't believe he's even projected to start next year for the Yankees. If they want to compete they won't start him anyway. It'll be interesting to see how he pans out in this auction and next year in MLB.

-- Bob Sylvester, 1/2/08

As it turned out, Mussina, who was eventually signed by the South Carolina Sea Cats, will be one of the bigger bargains in the league next year.  At just $3 million in salary next year, Mussina has thrown 178+ innings, with 194 hits allowed, 25 walks, 130 K's and a 3.48 ERA.

there's gotta be a slight concern in the Allentown camp against righties. You guys better start eating up all the righty killer left or ya'll are gonna fry.

Tom's park supresses lefties which means against a righty, Griffey and Posada are gonna get hurt by Tom's park and their MLB parks. Rowand will get hurt because he played in Philly. Alou should be good, Braun will be decent. Otherwise, it's hope for rain against righties.

-- Tony Chamra, 1/4/08

As of this writing, the Ridgebacks rank #2 in the BDBL (by only one point) in team OPS vs. right-handers.  Their .362 on-base percentage against righties is tops in the entire BDBL.  Looks like Tom managed to plug that hole pretty well.

My favorite part about the Lackey bidding was the fact that Doyle bid $17M for him. Every time I think that it's impossible for Jim to make any less sense, he proves me wrong.

He has $18.5M to spend on 15 players, and he needs a third baseman, a shortstop, at least one outfielder, two starting pitchers and several bullpen arms. And yet he was planning to spend $17M on one pitcher -- when he's already spending $20M on another!

Jim Doyle, you've done it again.

-- Me, 1/5/08

Wow, I had actually forgotten about this.

Interesting decision by Greg. He now has a rotation of Haren, Lackey, Guthrie, Wandy Rodriguez and El Duque, with a full bullpen and pretty much a full starting lineup (though he could use an upgrade in the OF.)

But spending $52.5 MILLION on any pitcher is a huge, huge gamble.

-- Me, 1/5/08

A few days later, I spent $51 million on a pitcher myself.  Yes, I'm ashamed and embarrassed of my cheap ploy to drive down the price of Josh Beckett.

I'm really kicking myself HARD for not giving Ian Snell a longer contract. Had I seen this coming, I would have gone 6+ years, easily. I'm just glad I have my current rotation locked up through next year, because I don't want any part of this circus.

-- Me, 1/5/08

I'm not kicking myself anymore.  But it's still a good thing my rotation of Snell, McGowan, Bedard and Escobar is rock-solid for next year.

Our young arms may not be in the class of an Allentown, but we are happy with Owings, Patton, Bailey, Hirsh, Baek, and Mitre for next year with the likes of Lincoln, Outman, Asswipe, Thompson, and Anderson on the way.

-- Anthony Peburn, 1/6/08

You're right, Peburn.  Your young arms are not in the class of an Allentown.

Lackey's contract augments that as I think he's a safe bet injury wise

-- Greg Newgard, 1/6/08

Man, Greg, you practically begged the Baseball Gods to smite you, didn't you?

I'd like to thank the league for allowing Tom to rebuild his dynasty. I'd especially like to thank Jim and Ed for your contributions to that effort. I was getting tired of seeing Tom not win a World Series the last two years, and it's refreshing to see him back on top as the favorite to win #3.

Ordonez was "Plan A." Bonds was "Plan B." Looks like it's on to "Plan C" -- whatever the fuck that is.

I was worried Tom might use his $40 million in completely unnecessary funding to blow me out of the water for Bonds, but then I looked at his roster and said, "Shit -- he already has five great full-time outfielders. Why would he want Bonds?" Well...I guess he's working on his bench now.

Outstanding. Really.

-- Me, 1/8/08

Well, it took a while for Tom's new dynasty to get rolling, but he's finally beginning to fulfill the prophecy -- even with Bonds hitting an inexplicable .125/.286/.250 against lefties!

[Gary] Sheffield for [only] 5 [million] is horse shit...Are people that damn TIGHT? penny pinchers? 5.5 mil will be a back breaker for you in years to come? Sheffield will be worthless? 600 PAs and an .837 OPS. Is he gonna fall off the map? hit .230 next year?

-- Skizm, 1/8/08

No, Sheffield probably isn't going to hit .230 in the BDBL next year.  Because he's only hitting .226 in MLB!

Prediction -- any Cleveland Rocks starting pitcher who manages a sub-5.00 ERA will have a winning record. The problem will be finding a Cleveland Rocks starting pitcher outside of Lowe, Silva, and Kenny Rogers (who will get about 12 starts) who will post a sub-6.00 ERA. ...As long as my offense produces, I'm going to have fun w/this team.

-- Mike Stein, 1/22/08

So far, no Cleveland Rocks starting pitcher owns an ERA under 5.00, so it's impossible to judge this prediction.  Derek Lowe (11-8, 5.02 ERA) and Jose Contreras (7-6, 5.09 ERA) are the closest to the 5.00 mark, and both are above .500.  Rogers only has eight starts so far, and is 4-4 with a 2.76 ERA.  Of course, Cleveland is just 55-61 at press time, so I'm not sure how much "fun" it's been for Stein this year.

I cringe every time I read my franchise is the only one that has never made the playoffs. 2008 will break the streak!

-- Scott Romonosky, 1/24/08

It's a good thing you didn't bet on this, Scott.  Take it from me, you should never bet on baseball.

[Eric Bedard is] the most dominant pitcher in baseball right now. His injury last September had nothing to do with his arm or shoulder -- it was an oblique injury, and he's now 100% healthy. So there's no injury concern going forward.

Santana has a longer track record, and Sabathia is younger, but all things considered, I'd rather have Bedard. Maybe you're right -- maybe it's a Cowtippers bias.

-- Me, 2/4/08

Holy crap, that Cowtippers bias sure makes me say some stupid things sometimes.

Yankees better watch it or they might just win less than 90 games again one of these years.

-- Mike Stein, 2/10/08

You called it, Mikey.

Here is what is going to happen this year.

AL East:
1. NY Yankees
...
4. Tampa Bay Rays

AL Central:
1. Detroit Tigers
...
5. Minnesota Twins

AL West:
1. Seattle Mariners

-- Jeff Paulson, 3/30/08

Hey, Kreskin Paulson -- don't quit your day job!

So, let's see...I had six quality starters for 2009 up until a month ago. And now Escobar and probably Bedard are now gone for the year. Awesome. Thank you, Baseball Gods! You rule!!

-- Me, 4/17/08

Little did I know that the remaining four pitchers would all be injured as well, long before the end of the season.  Ah, the Baseball Gods are hilarious.

Going forward, I don't see anything in [Ryan] Doumit's track record that screams "all-star" to me. PECOTA pretty much agrees (.268/.339/.458 projection in 277 PAs), FWIW. In fact, I like Montero better than Doumit in '09, and PECOTA (.270/.336/.490 in 303 PAs) agrees with me there as well.

-- Me, 4/23/08

Ryan Doumit update: 358 at-bats, .318/.355/.506, 13 HR, 28 doubles.

PECOTA sucks.  And so do I.

Winn is a platoon outfielders vs. lefties, Timlin has 25 innings of usage left, and Burke will barely play as Johjima's backup. All three are either free agents or non-keepers.

All three for Lewis alone would be a good deal for Nic, I think. The fact that I "threw in" two good relievers for '09 and a prospect makes this a great deal for him.

-- Me, 4/26/08

Yes...that would have been a good deal for Nic.  Don't you agree now, naysayers?

Well, my point is Glander is using Edwar's numbers like they mean something. He was playing in a T-ball league! Those numbers don't mean anything.

-- Anthony Peburn, 4/27/08

How about these numbers, Peburn?

51.1 IP, 38 H, 7 HR, 22 BB, 58 K, 3.68 ERA, 683/653 splits

Do these mean anything to you?

My God, he's hitting .373 and has 18 RBI. 9/7 K/BB ratio. Has Super Ronny figured it out? And he IS a free agent!! I start the bidding at $5 million!!

-- Mike Stein, 5/6/08

Fear not, Mike.  Sub-par Ronny has cooled off a little bit since May.  At press time, he's hitting .272/.332/.361 in 169 AB's.  Still, it's not bad for Subpar.

I heard that this season, MLB is on pace for 1000 less home runs than 2006.

One thousand!

-- Jeff Paulson, 5/14/08

Put away your torch, Sharky.  To date, 4,021 homers have been hit this season, compared to 4,957 homers last year.  MLB hitters are on pace to hit 4,902 homers this year, which would be only about 50 homers fewer than last year.

With the peripheral numbers, it's Floyd who is due for an adjustment more than Lannan.

-- Tony Badger, 5/20/08

How did Gavin Floyd and John Lannan "adjust" over the final four months of the season?  Let's get an update on their season numbers to date:

Floyd: 167 IP, 143 H, 23 HR, 64 BB, 119 K, 3.61 ERA, 791/635 splits
Lannan: 160 IP, 152 H, 18 HR, 62 BB, 98 K, 3.88 ERA, 769/692 splits

All things considered, I'll stick with my original opinion that Floyd is a better pitcher than Lannan, and will be a better pitcher through the foreseeable future.

P.S. Notice Daniel Cabrera's stats lately?

-- Sharky, 5/23/08

Why, yes I have.

Cabrera, June: 29.1 IP, 37 H, 15 BB, 20 K, 7.06 ERA
Cabrera, July: 36.2 IP, 43 H, 19 BB, 16 K, 5.65 ERA
Cabrera, August: 25.2 IP, 37 H, 13 BB, 13 K, 7.71 ERA

Who did you trade for Cabrera, again?

Speaking of guys named "Cabrera"...

WHO WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE ON YOUR TEAM FOR NEXT YEAR:

BJ Upton: (7 votes, 63%)
Miguel Cabrera: (4 votes, 36%)

-- Jim Doyle, 5/30/08

It's funny, I could have sworn I said last summer that Upton was a better player -- and a better bargain -- than Cabrera. And yet, every person in the league said I was wrong, and that I had ripped off poor, helpless, defenseless Jim in our trade.

Man, it sucks being right all the time.

-- Me, 5/31/08

You asked for it, Jeff, so here's your update:

Upton: .274/.382/.397, 8 HR in 504 AB
Cabrera: .291/.353/.537, 33 HR in 549 AB

Thanks to Cabrera's late surge, the gap has closed a bit since May 31st.  But I still think Upton gets the edge here, as he's several years younger, $4.5 million cheaper, (much) more athletic, quicker on the bases, and plays a defensive position up the middle.  Any time you want to reverse our trade, Jim, just let me know, okay, buddy?

...the fact that [Shaun Marcum] is off to a terrific season is great, congrats to him...but he is two bad starts removed from being an average pitcher in 2008.

-- Bobby Sylvester, 6/5/08

22 starts into the season, Marcum owns a 3.60 ERA in 135 innings, with 115 hits allowed, 43 walks and 109 strikeouts.  But he's still only about 10-11 bad starts away from being an average pitcher.

[Ubaldo] Jimenez has pretty much sucked ass all year. He owns a 5.37 ERA as I type, and has allowed 74 hits and 36 walks in only 63+ innings.  The year before that, he also sucked ass (granted, not nearly as much.)  And in his Triple-A career, he owns a stellar 5.52 ERA in 181 innings.  He ain't exactly Roger Clemens, dude.

-- Me, 6/6/08

Since then, Ubaldo was pretty good in June (3.60 ERA in 35 IP), and lights-out in July (1.74 ERA in 41+ IP.)  But he was back to sucking ass in August (5.79 ERA, with 21 BBs and 21 K's in 32+ IP.)  Another two or three bad starts, and he'll be an average pitcher.

The point was that Kazmir is no longer the same Kazmir. He just came off the DL list recently and I think he will not recover...

-- Jim Doyle, 8/3/08

In the month of August, Kazmir made six starts.  In 31+ innings, he allowed 25 hits and struck out 35 batters (but walked 20.)  He looks okay to me, but of course I'm no Frank White.