September, 2008
Time to
Eat Some Crow
For the uninitiated (that would be you,
Nic and Todd), this highly-popular annual article is dedicated to
reviewing some of the quotes from our league message board over the past
year and reflecting upon how foolish we all were. Enjoy!
Big, fat first basemen (like Mo
Vaughn and Cecil Fielder) tend to flame out pretty early. Prince is
only signed through age 31, so he'll probably be okay. But Howard is
signed through age 34. Vaughn was done at age 33, and Cecil was done
at age 30. That's a bit of a red flag.
-- Me, 12/24/07
Big, fat Howard may have flamed out
even earlier than I predicted. He's hitting .227/.316/.475 in MLB
this year (as of press time.)
I wouldn't really call keeping
Harden ballsy more than I'd call it stubborn. I refuse to give up on
Harden and Greinke. Screw it, I'll do down in flames if these guys
don't fulfill their potential and stay healthy.
I think as Harden gets older they'll force him to stop being a pussy
and either play through the discomfort or condition himself better,
if possible.
-- Tony Chamra, 12/24/07
In retrospect, sticking with Harden
(2.00 ERA in 126 IP, with 162 K's) and Greinke (3.86 ERA in 163+ IP, 146
K's) was neither "ballsy" nor "stubborn" -- it was brilliant!
...and [Scott] Romonosky also went Type
H on a 41-year-old second baseman! [Jeff Kent.]
-- Me, 1/2/08
.302 .375 .500 .875 ain't bad AT ALL.
[Jeff] Kent is still productive and will be next year or 2. I don't
think going Type H is the worst thing in the world.
-- Matt Clemm, 1/2/08
Actually, I think it will
work out for him or if someone goes a little higher. Kent was
contemplating retiring this year, he puts up a solid year (for him)
then retires, still only a 2-year commitment for a very good hitting
2B...Kent at $5.5m is a steal, this is where the 3-year signing took
affect, no one wants that 3rd year from him. Suprised only $5.5m,
figured $8m.
-- Sharky, 1/2/08
i think kent for 5.5 is a
steal because he will retire before he becomes a big piece of crap
-- Bobby Sylvester,
1/3/08
Unfortunately for Scott, Kent (.275/.324/.410
on the season, with 11 homers in 432 AB's) turned into a big piece of
crap one year ahead of schedule. But the good news (for Scott) is
that it's probably his last season.
Horrible beyond belief. I couldn't be
more pissed. I want to throttle a carotid artery...It's ok to
workout when you're entire head is purple right? More creatine
should help. I'm out of here before I break shit or start
carving words on my body. Joyfully blessed merry new years to
all. winky winky cutey cudddley smily...So why am I pissed I didn't
get this load of crap? Because. Just because. Because I wanted him.
I wanted to overpay for him. But somebody else wanted to overpay
much more.
I should be greatful, but I just feel like an idiot in the middle of
a bad poker game who hears the jackals howling and wants to use the
table as a weapon...Never underestimate...oh never the f&ck mind.
-- Skizm, 1/3/08
Why was Skiz so pissed? Because he
didn't win the bidding for Aaron Cook. Seriously.
It'll continue to be a joke, just like
last year's disgrace. So much fun, like bad, bad poker. In one hour
I've went from "might have a shot" to "not a chance". My goals
are a lot more modest now. Get close to .500, play spoiler. Cheer
against teams I dislike. What a year to look forward to.
-- Skizm, three minutes
later
Seriously, Aaron Cook.
Post-Aaron-Cook-less update: the Infidels are
currently 80-52 on the season -- 19 games ahead of the next best team in
the division.
Congratulations Ed. You thought it out,
planned it out, and got er done! I need 3 mf'ing starters.
That ain't gonna happen. Season over for me. Maybe I'll trade
you some good players and become a surrogate Confederate Army fan.
Or maybe I'll just stick my head in an oven this weekend and
actively end this miserable joke. Either way. Can't wait to
wake up tommorow. Or the next day, and the one after that.
-- Skizm, 12 minutes
later
Man, I'm really going to miss Brian when he
finally goes on that shooting spree we've all been waiting for since the
day he joined the league.
I'm curious about Mussina
too. He's currently at $1.5M and I don't believe he's even projected
to start next year for the Yankees. If they want to compete they
won't start him anyway. It'll be interesting to see how he pans out
in this auction and next year in MLB.
-- Bob Sylvester, 1/2/08
As it turned out, Mussina, who was eventually
signed by the South Carolina Sea Cats, will be one of the bigger
bargains in the league next year. At just $3 million in salary
next year, Mussina has thrown 178+ innings, with 194 hits allowed, 25
walks, 130 K's and a 3.48 ERA.
there's gotta be a slight concern in
the Allentown camp against righties. You guys better start eating up
all the righty killer left or ya'll are gonna fry.
Tom's park supresses lefties which means against a righty, Griffey
and Posada are gonna get hurt by Tom's park and their MLB parks.
Rowand will get hurt because he played in Philly. Alou should be
good, Braun will be decent. Otherwise, it's hope for rain against
righties.
-- Tony Chamra, 1/4/08
As of this writing, the Ridgebacks rank #2 in
the BDBL (by only one point) in team OPS vs. right-handers. Their
.362 on-base percentage against righties is tops in the entire BDBL.
Looks like Tom managed to plug that hole pretty well.
My favorite part about the Lackey
bidding was the fact that Doyle bid $17M for him. Every time I think
that it's impossible for Jim to make any less sense, he proves me
wrong.
He has $18.5M to spend on 15 players, and he needs a third baseman,
a shortstop, at least one outfielder, two starting pitchers and
several bullpen arms. And yet he was planning to spend $17M on one
pitcher -- when he's already spending $20M on another!
Jim Doyle, you've done it again.
-- Me, 1/5/08
Wow, I had actually forgotten about this.
Interesting decision by Greg. He now
has a rotation of Haren, Lackey, Guthrie, Wandy Rodriguez and El
Duque, with a full bullpen and pretty much a full starting lineup
(though he could use an upgrade in the OF.)
But spending $52.5 MILLION on
any pitcher is a huge, huge gamble.
-- Me, 1/5/08
A few days later, I spent $51 million on a
pitcher myself. Yes, I'm ashamed and embarrassed of my cheap ploy
to drive down the price of Josh Beckett.
I'm really kicking myself HARD for not
giving Ian Snell a longer contract. Had I seen this coming, I would
have gone 6+ years, easily. I'm just glad I have my current rotation
locked up through next year, because I don't want any part of this
circus.
-- Me, 1/5/08
I'm not kicking myself anymore. But it's
still a good thing my rotation of Snell, McGowan, Bedard and Escobar is
rock-solid for next year.
Our young arms may not be in the class
of an Allentown, but we are happy with Owings, Patton, Bailey,
Hirsh, Baek, and Mitre for next year with the likes of Lincoln,
Outman, Asswipe, Thompson, and Anderson on the way.
-- Anthony Peburn, 1/6/08
You're right, Peburn. Your young arms
are not in the class of an Allentown.
Lackey's contract augments that as I
think he's a safe bet injury wise
-- Greg Newgard, 1/6/08
Man, Greg, you practically begged the Baseball
Gods to smite you, didn't you?
I'd like to thank the league for
allowing Tom to rebuild his dynasty. I'd especially like to thank
Jim and Ed for your contributions to that effort. I was getting
tired of seeing Tom not win a World Series the last two years, and
it's refreshing to see him back on top as the favorite to win #3.
Ordonez was "Plan A." Bonds was "Plan B." Looks like it's on to
"Plan C" -- whatever the fuck that is.
I was worried Tom might use his $40 million in completely
unnecessary funding to blow me out of the water for Bonds, but then
I looked at his roster and said, "Shit -- he already has five great
full-time outfielders. Why would he want Bonds?" Well...I guess he's
working on his bench now.
Outstanding. Really.
-- Me, 1/8/08
Well, it took a while for Tom's new dynasty to
get rolling, but he's finally beginning to fulfill the prophecy -- even
with Bonds hitting an inexplicable .125/.286/.250 against lefties!
[Gary] Sheffield for [only] 5 [million]
is horse shit...Are
people that damn TIGHT? penny pinchers? 5.5 mil will be a back
breaker for you in years to come? Sheffield will be worthless? 600
PAs and an .837 OPS. Is he gonna fall off the map? hit .230 next
year?
-- Skizm, 1/8/08
No, Sheffield probably isn't going to hit .230
in the BDBL next year. Because he's only hitting .226 in MLB!
Prediction -- any Cleveland
Rocks starting pitcher who manages a sub-5.00 ERA will have a
winning record. The problem will be finding a Cleveland Rocks
starting pitcher outside of Lowe, Silva, and Kenny Rogers (who will
get about 12 starts) who will post a sub-6.00 ERA. ...As long as my
offense produces, I'm going to have fun w/this team.
-- Mike Stein,
1/22/08
So far, no Cleveland Rocks starting
pitcher owns an ERA under 5.00, so it's impossible to judge this
prediction. Derek Lowe (11-8, 5.02 ERA) and Jose Contreras (7-6,
5.09 ERA) are the closest to the 5.00 mark, and both are above .500.
Rogers only has eight starts so far, and is 4-4 with a 2.76 ERA.
Of course, Cleveland is just 55-61 at press time, so I'm not sure how
much "fun" it's been for Stein this year.
I cringe every time I read my franchise
is the only one that has never made the playoffs. 2008 will break
the streak!
-- Scott Romonosky,
1/24/08
It's a good thing you didn't bet on this,
Scott. Take it from me, you should never bet on baseball.
[Eric Bedard is]
the most dominant pitcher in baseball right now. His injury last
September had nothing to do with his arm or shoulder -- it was an
oblique injury, and he's now 100% healthy. So there's no injury
concern going forward.
Santana has a longer track record, and Sabathia is younger, but all
things considered, I'd rather have Bedard. Maybe you're right --
maybe it's a Cowtippers bias.
-- Me, 2/4/08
Holy crap, that Cowtippers bias sure
makes me say some stupid things sometimes.
Yankees better watch it or they might
just win less than 90 games again one of these years.
-- Mike Stein, 2/10/08
You called it, Mikey.
Here is what is going to happen this
year.
AL East:
1. NY Yankees
...
4. Tampa Bay Rays
AL Central:
1. Detroit Tigers
...
5. Minnesota Twins
AL West:
1. Seattle Mariners
-- Jeff Paulson, 3/30/08
Hey, Kreskin Paulson -- don't quit your
day job!
So, let's see...I had six quality
starters for 2009 up until a month ago. And now Escobar and probably
Bedard are now gone for the year. Awesome. Thank you, Baseball Gods!
You rule!!
-- Me, 4/17/08
Little did I know that the remaining
four pitchers would all be injured as well, long before the end of the
season. Ah, the Baseball Gods are hilarious.
Going forward, I don't see anything in
[Ryan] Doumit's track record that screams "all-star" to me. PECOTA
pretty much agrees (.268/.339/.458 projection in 277 PAs), FWIW. In
fact, I like Montero better than Doumit in '09, and PECOTA
(.270/.336/.490 in 303 PAs) agrees with me there as well.
-- Me, 4/23/08
Ryan Doumit update: 358 at-bats,
.318/.355/.506, 13 HR, 28 doubles.
PECOTA sucks. And so do I.
Winn is a platoon outfielders vs.
lefties, Timlin has 25 innings of usage left, and Burke will barely
play as Johjima's backup. All three are either free agents or
non-keepers.
All three for Lewis alone would be a good deal for Nic, I think. The
fact that I "threw in" two good relievers for '09 and a prospect
makes this a great deal for him.
-- Me, 4/26/08
Yes...that would have been a good deal for
Nic. Don't you agree now, naysayers?
Well, my point is Glander is using
Edwar's numbers like they mean something. He was playing in a T-ball
league! Those numbers don't mean anything.
-- Anthony Peburn,
4/27/08
How about these numbers, Peburn?
51.1 IP, 38 H, 7 HR, 22 BB, 58 K, 3.68
ERA, 683/653 splits
Do these mean anything to you?
My God, he's hitting .373 and has 18
RBI. 9/7 K/BB ratio. Has Super Ronny figured it out? And he IS a
free agent!! I start the bidding at $5 million!!
-- Mike Stein, 5/6/08
Fear not, Mike. Sub-par Ronny has
cooled off a little bit since May. At press time, he's hitting
.272/.332/.361 in 169 AB's. Still, it's not bad for Subpar.
I heard that this season, MLB is on
pace for 1000 less home runs than 2006.
One thousand!
-- Jeff Paulson, 5/14/08
Put away your torch, Sharky. To
date, 4,021 homers have been hit this season, compared to 4,957 homers
last year. MLB hitters are on pace to hit 4,902 homers this year,
which would be only about 50 homers fewer than last year.
With the peripheral numbers, it's Floyd
who is due for an adjustment more than Lannan.
-- Tony Badger, 5/20/08
How did Gavin Floyd and John Lannan "adjust"
over the final four months of the season? Let's get an update on
their season numbers to date:
Floyd: 167 IP, 143 H, 23 HR, 64 BB, 119 K,
3.61 ERA, 791/635 splits
Lannan: 160 IP, 152 H, 18 HR, 62 BB, 98 K, 3.88 ERA, 769/692 splits
All things considered, I'll stick with my
original opinion that Floyd is a better pitcher than Lannan, and will be
a better pitcher through the foreseeable future.
P.S. Notice Daniel Cabrera's stats
lately?
-- Sharky, 5/23/08
Why, yes I have.
Cabrera, June: 29.1 IP, 37 H, 15 BB, 20
K, 7.06 ERA
Cabrera, July: 36.2 IP, 43 H, 19 BB, 16 K, 5.65 ERA
Cabrera, August: 25.2 IP, 37 H, 13 BB, 13 K, 7.71 ERA
Who did you trade for Cabrera, again?
Speaking of guys named "Cabrera"...
WHO WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE ON YOUR TEAM FOR
NEXT YEAR:
BJ Upton: (7 votes, 63%)
Miguel Cabrera: (4 votes, 36%)
-- Jim Doyle, 5/30/08
It's funny, I could have sworn I said
last summer that Upton was a better player -- and a better bargain
-- than Cabrera. And yet, every person in the league said I was
wrong, and that I had ripped off poor, helpless, defenseless Jim in
our trade.
Man, it sucks being right all the time.
-- Me, 5/31/08
You asked for it, Jeff, so here's your update:
Upton: .274/.382/.397, 8 HR in 504 AB
Cabrera: .291/.353/.537, 33 HR in 549 AB
Thanks to Cabrera's late surge, the gap has
closed a bit since May 31st. But I still think Upton gets the edge
here, as he's several years younger, $4.5 million cheaper, (much) more
athletic, quicker on the bases, and plays a defensive position up the
middle. Any time you want to reverse our trade, Jim, just let me
know, okay, buddy?
...the fact that [Shaun Marcum] is off
to a terrific season is great, congrats to him...but he is two bad
starts removed from being an average pitcher in 2008.
-- Bobby Sylvester,
6/5/08
22 starts into the season, Marcum owns a 3.60
ERA in 135 innings, with 115 hits allowed, 43 walks and 109 strikeouts.
But he's still only about 10-11 bad starts away from being an average
pitcher.
[Ubaldo] Jimenez has pretty much sucked
ass all year. He owns a 5.37 ERA as I type, and has allowed 74 hits
and 36 walks in only 63+ innings. The year before that, he
also sucked ass (granted, not nearly as much.) And in his
Triple-A career, he owns a stellar 5.52 ERA in 181 innings. He
ain't exactly Roger Clemens, dude.
-- Me, 6/6/08
Since then, Ubaldo was pretty good in June
(3.60 ERA in 35 IP), and lights-out in July (1.74 ERA in 41+ IP.)
But he was back to sucking ass in August (5.79 ERA, with 21 BBs and 21
K's in 32+ IP.) Another two or three bad starts, and he'll be an
average pitcher.
The point was that Kazmir is no longer
the same Kazmir. He just came off the DL list recently and I think
he will not recover...
-- Jim Doyle, 8/3/08
In the month of August, Kazmir made six
starts. In 31+ innings, he allowed 25 hits and struck out 35
batters (but walked 20.) He looks okay to me, but of course I'm no
Frank White.
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