From the Desk of the Commish

There is no sugar-coating this year's auction class, as it is the weakest class we've seen so far:

There are many reasons for this steady decline, and most people will blame our revised auction formula and scream for yet another revision. But even if we take the top 50 free agents based on 2008 VORP alone, they would total just 1365.8 -- still, by far the weakest auction class we've ever seen.

Even the cream of the crop is weak. If we look at the top ten players from the past seven auctions alone, we get these totals:

So what's going on here? Why are we seeing weaker and weaker auction classes each and every year? Quite simply, we are witnessing the maturation of this league. In the early stages of this league, the best players in the league all owned big-money contracts that were too expensive and/or risky to carry for more than a couple of years. Because of this, there was a great deal of turnover with these players, as they floated from one short-term contract to another.

Today, most of the best players in the game originated from our BDBL farm systems. Out of the top 20 hitters in the game, 17 of them were members of a BDBL farm club at one time. And out of the top 20 pitchers, 18 of them are former BDBL farmhands.

Because these players started out with such cheap salaries, they were signed to much longer contracts. And because of that, fewer and fewer of them become free agents each season. (Which, appropriately enough, is what we see at the MLB level as well, where only a handful of superstars become free agents each winter.) From the group of top 20 hitters and top 20 pitchers in baseball, here is a graph showing when these players will become free agents:

As you can see, it's pretty well spread out. Also, it looks like next year's auction class could be the best we will see for a while. Thankfully, though, we've got Jim Doyle to keep the free agent pool stocked with 28-year-old superstars!

This group is quite a bit weaker than last year's top non-auction free agents. There really isn't much here that will help a contending team very much this year. In fact, beyond Contreras, there are only 17 other free agents with a double-digit VORP!

The good news is that there is less spending money this season than in any of the past three seasons. The bad news is that there are fewer open roster spots than in any other auction year aside from 2005:

Year	Total cash available	# of free agents needed	Cash per player	$ spent in auction
2003	$557.1m	360	$1.55m	$328.5m (59%)
2004	$606.2m	343	$1.77m	$363.5m (60%)
2005	$498.2m	292	$1.71m	$318m (64%)
2006	$621.3m	327	$1.90m	$341.5 (55%)
2007	$569.0m	296	$1.92m	$364.5 (64%)
2008	$595.5	320	$1.86m	$324.0 (54%)
2009	$543.3	292	$1.86m	TBD

On average, 59.3% of the total available spending money has been spent on the 50 free agents in the auction. If that average holds true this season, that means $322 million will be spent on that pile of rubbish this winter. Even if we set a new record low, and only allocate half of our total spending dollars to the auction, that's $272 million. Looking at this year's crop, it's hard to fathom how all that money will be spent.

There are three big-time ace pitchers available in this auction, and there are several teams counting on signing at least one of those pitchers in order to contend this season. So, thanks to the law of supply and demand, expect to see a repeat of 2007's fiscal insanity. Due to their young ages and relatively injury-free medical histories, I would expect to see all three pitchers (Sabathia, Santana and Webb) fetch $22 million apiece.

Then, just as we saw in 2007, this will create a domino effect. The teams that lose out on those three pitchers will increase their bids for the next tier of pitching (Lowe and Burnett.) And just as we saw pitchers like Greg Maddux and Jason Jennings get $12-$15 million salaries in 2007, we will see Lowe and Burnett earn the same this winter. Maddux will also get upwards of $13 million this winter, simply due to the fact that he provides quality innings with zero expense going forward. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Wandy Rodriguez get a double-digit payday as well, though I think he'll settle in at around $9 million.

In terms of hitting, Lance Berkman is so far above every other hitter in this auction, he should easily command $15-$17 million (factoring in the usual deflation for first basemen.)Vladimir Guerrero should earn around $12 million based on name and reputation alone. Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, Carlos Guillen, Miguel Tejada, Brian Giles and Carl Crawford are all in various stages of old age and decline, but with the dearth of quality hitting and their all-star reputations, it wouldn't surprise me to see each of them become a "Type H" player at around $6-$7 million apiece. The teams that "win" these auctions will likely regret it a year from now, but paying $21 million over three years for one year of solid production seems to be an acceptable trade-off for most contending teams.

This auction is filled with aging veterans who were solid, all-star contributors not long ago, but have since stumbled. But because they still carry the name and reputation, teams are more willing to accept the risk that they'll bounce back and squeeze out one or two more good years. In addition to the group of players I listed above, I would add Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, who could each fetch around $7 million.

Next, we come to a VERY large group of players that are good, solid contributors -- but not good enough to tempt any owner to go "Type H" on them. I count NINETEEN such players in this auction, and I predict all 19 will earn $5 million salaries this winter.

Then, there are ten players I predict will earn around $3 million. These are mostly middle relievers who usually pull in this kind of salary in the draft, but have now been pushed into the auction.

And finally, we come to a group of four players that have already generated some discussion on the league forum: Manny Corpas, Frank Thomas, Moises Alou and Matt Guerrier. The question is whether any of these players will become the first player in BDBL auction history to pass through without a single bid. I'm predicting that at least three of them will do so. Some have suggested that John Smoltz belongs in this group as well, but I think someone will place a $3 million wager on his return to prominence.

Add it all up, and you've got $324.5 million in salary, which just about nails that 59% target on the button.

Frighteningly enough, the big spenders this year will be the Dynamic Duo of Jim Doyle and Todd Bliss. Needless to say, there is NO way to predict what Doyle's ever-changing strategy will be this winter. Since trading away Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir and Matt Cain, the Irish Rebels could certainly use some starting pitching, as they come into this winter with a starting rotation of Randy Wolf, half a season of Chris Young and...well, that's pretty much it. And with $40.8 million to spend on just 9 roster spots (an average of $4.5 million per spot), they certainly have the funding to throw $22 million at Sabathia, Webb or Santana. Doyle's done it before, after all. But given the fact that Doyle's latest financial formula has determined that B.J. Upton won't be worth $6.1 million at age 28, it's hard to know what this formula might think about spending 35% of the team's total salary on one pitcher.

With $42.9 million in spending cash, the Atlanta Fire Ants lead the league in that category. However, they have far more holes to fill than Manchester. Their starting rotation is pretty much set in stone. But offensively, they need a catcher, a shortstop and two outfielders, minimum. They could probably also use an upgrade at either second or third base. Unfortunately for Gene, there aren't a ton of appealing options available on the free agent market for filling those particular holes, which means he's going to have to hold his nose and overspend.

The Bear Country Jamboree ($39.8M), St. Louis Apostles ($34.5M), Great Lakes Sphinx ($34M), South Carolina Sea Cats ($31.3M), Ravenswood Infidels ($30.8M) and Chicago Black Sox ($30.4M) each have more than $30 million in funny money. Bear Country seems to be a good fit for Berkman. St. Louis could use several good arms in their starting rotation, but we all know how Bobby hates to spend any money at all on pitching. It's difficult to predict what Scott Romonosky might do at any moment, but it seems unlikely that he'll be a big player for any of the big-ticket free agents. It's also difficult to predict how Tony DeCastro will factor into these bidding wars. Berkman would also be a great fit in Ravenswood, but Brian claims he is rebuilding this year. And in Chicago, a complementary ace for Roy Oswalt would probably make the Black Sox the favorites to win their division.

Next, there is the group of $20M-somethings: Corona ($27.1M), Las Vegas ($26.7M), Kansas ($25.7M), Los Altos ($24.4M) and Cleveland ($21.6M.) The team to watch out for here, of course, is Los Altos. The latest VORP standings show the Undertakers with a seemingly insurmountable lead of over 100 points. And with a full lineup, starting rotation and bullpen, poor Jeff doesn't seem to have anything to do with his $24.4 million. With an average of $4.1 million to spend on his six remaining roster spots, I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend $22 million on one of the big three pitchers, which would push every other pitcher in his rotation down a slot and all but guarantee an Undertakers championship. The last time Jeff was in this situation, he threw $20 million at Chris Carpenter and walked away with a 99-win season and zero debt, as Carpenter escaped through the Rule 18.11 loophole.

Vegas and Cleveland have too many holes to fill to be major players for any of the big free agents. In Corona, Ed McGowan has been known to bid record amounts for pitchers before, so it wouldn't be a shock to see him do it again. And I know Chris Luhning would love another shot at a division title.

The remaining eleven teams don't even have enough money to bid on any of the top five players in this auction. They'll simply enjoy the show at a safe distance.

As I pointed out earlier, next year's class may be the last quality free agent class we see for a while, and should end the streak of weaker and weaker auction classes -- albeit temporarily. Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Ryan Dempster, Jake Peavy, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Javier Vazquez, Oliver Perez, Ichiro Suzuki, Placido Polanco, Alex Rios, Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Lee, Scott Rolen, Erik Bedard, Victor Martinez, Ted Lilly, Rafael Furcal, Mariano Rivera, Tim Hudson, Gil Meche, J.J. Hardy and Derek Jeter are just some of the names we'll see in the auction next year, barring unforeseen disaster.

2009 Draft Day Preview