June, 2009

Decisions, Decisions

Perhaps the toughest decision we ever have to make as GM's is whether to "go for it" or pack it in and play for next year.  If your team is hovering in that no-man's land between contention and mediocrity, do you mortgage the future and put it all on the line for an outside shot at participating in the post-season Tournament of Randomness, or do you wave the white flag and begin the humiliating, soul-draining and often highly-controversial process of selling off your best players to build for next year (or beyond?)

Let's take a look at five teams that have been forced to make this agonizing decision this season.  The winning percentages (as of 6/1) for these five teams range from .382 to .475, with an average record of 33-41.  Yet, despite the similar records, two of these teams have opted to "go for it," two have decided to "pack it in," and one has decided to "build for next year while staying competitive this year."

There are no "right" or "wrong" answers.  In the end, we all do what we feel is best for our franchise (and our sanity.)  But the factors that lead to these decisions are both fascinating and instructive.

Team #1: The Allentown Ridgebacks

At press time (6/1), the Ridgebacks own a record of 32-40 (.444), and a nine-game deficit in the Higuera Division.  It's no secret that Allentown GM Tom DiStefano is not a big fan of rebuilding.  In fact, he's been the league's most outspoken critic of GM's who have made the decision to build for the future at the expense of their current team.  So perhaps it shouldn't have come as a shock when DiStefano announced on May 21st that he had chosen "victory or death" for the 2009 season.

Two days later, DiStefano added impact pitchers Tim Hudson and Joe Nelson, sacrificing little (Jorge De La Rosa, Alberto Arias and David Robertson) in return.  Then, just two days after that deal, DiStefano blew the roof off the BDBL by making one of the most incredibly risky trades in league history.  In exchange for minimum-wage, 23-year-old ace Yovani Gallardo and several others, DiStefano added #4 starter Jorge Campillo, prospect Mike Stanton and bench players John Baker, Ryan Spillborghs and Martin Prado.

Setting aside the rationale behind the Gallardo trade (because even if I wanted to explain it, I couldn't), what are the realistic expectations for the Ridgebacks this season?  Allentown came into this season as the favorite to win the division (both in league polling and in the Season Preview.)  It's fair to say, then, that this team has underperformed by quite a bit.  Allentown's Pythagorean record is 37-55, so in terms of pure luck, they are underperforming by five wins this season -- the largest negative differential in the BDBL.

Offensively, only two players on the Ridgebacks roster are currently performing far below their MLB numbers: Kelly Johnson (795 OPS in MLB, 631 in BDBL) and Mark Reynolds (779 OPS in MLB, 595 in BDBL.)  And on the mound, Jake Peavy (2.85 ERA in MLB, 5.21 in BDBL) and Oliver Perez (4.22 MLB, 6.16 BDBL) are currently performing way below expectations.  With some regression to the mean, with Hudson taking over for Perez, and with Campillo filling in as the rotation's #5 starter, it seems reasonable to expect Allentown to improve upon their 4.18 team ERA over the final three chapters of the season and win a few more games than they did the first three chapters.

But how much will they need to improve in order to win a spot in the playoffs?  With SoCal and St. Louis currently dominating the Person Division, it's probably a safe bet that the wild card is out of reach.  The Ridgebacks currently trail in that race by 13 games.  So the question becomes whether Allentown can make up the nine-game deficit in the Higuera Division.

Let's do a little math.  Kansas is currently on pace to win 91 games, which is right in line with their Pythagorean record.  If the Ridgebacks improve to a .514 record (which is their Pythagorean win percentage) over their final 88 games, they will finish the season with 77 wins.  If they play .600 ball, they'll finish with 85 wins.  If they play .650 baseball over their final 88 games, they will still finish two games shy of first.

The Ridgebacks would need to play .677 baseball over their final 88 games in order to finish with 92 wins.  That's a 108-win pace over a full season, which means Allentown would have to play at an historic pace over the final three chapters just to finish with 92 wins.

Of course, this all assumes that Kansas continues to play .566 baseball.  Maybe they stumble down the stretch.  But given that they've just replaced Yunel Escobar with Jose Reyes as their starting shortstop, and added Ben Sheets to their starting rotation, it isn't likely that Kansas will perform worse in the second half than they have in the first half.

All of which means that Tom DiStefano's dream of catching up in this division race is about as realistic as my dream of joining the New York Yankees front office.  But I guess you can't blame a guy for dreaming.

Team #2: Ravenswood Infidels

The Infidels share something in common with the Ridgebacks, in that they also sport a 32-40 record as I type.  And like the Ridgebacks, the Infidels are also 13 games behind in the wild card race.  But that's where the similarities end.

Unlike the Ridgebacks, the Infidels are just two games back in their division race.  Which means that with just a slight improvement, they could sneak into the BDBL Tournament of Randomness and pray for a repeat of 2004.  If Ravenswood plays just .500 baseball over their remaining 88 games, they would finish with 76 wins -- which is the first-place Marlboro Hammerheads' current pace.

Also unlike the Ridgebacks, the team they are chasing in their division is unloading players in an effort to "rebuild while competing."  After dumping Tim Hudson, Jimmy Rollins, Joe Nelson, Damaso Marte, B.J. Ryan and Mike Lincoln, it's probably safe to wager that Marlboro's wins total over their final 88 games will not match their total in the first 72.  So, realistically, the Infidels could probably play just .475 baseball (i.e. just two wins better than their current pace) the rest of the way and walk away with a division title.

Way back on April 27th, however, Brian Potrafka made his fateful decision to punt the 2009 season, trading Roy Halladay to the New Milford Blazers in exchange for future considerations.

A major part of Skizm's calculus was that his team's record and place in the standings was a mirage.  Unlike Allentown, no one (aside from the three out of fifteen people who voted in our pre-season poll) expected Ravenswood to compete in 2009.  And maybe there is something to the theory that Ravenswood can't possibly keep up their early pace for much longer, and therefore the time was right to part with Halladay while his value was still at its peak (and, presumably, the players received by Potrafka were still bargains.)

"Would it have been wise to bankrupt even more future value to get another 100 VORP to go after Marlboro?," Skizm asked.  "I still don't think I win this division making the best possible 'for this season' trade.  And then the ol' crapshoot miracle happens.  Yeah, yeah, yeah.  I'm sure this awful, AWFUL team can do what last year's squad couldn't.  Going for it would have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that I don't belong in this league."

Like I wrote earlier, there are no "right" or "wrong" decisions.  People ultimately make the decision they feel puts their team in the best possible position to compete -- whether it's this year or next.  For DiStefano, looking at a 2009 team that was picked to win the Eck League title by four of the seven poll responders in the pre-season, a 2010 roster that will be without Jake Peavy and Carlos Beltran, and a reputation for calling out those who choose to rebuild as "wussies," the decision to "go for it" seemed plausible -- especially when the first trade he made cost him so little in return.

But for Potraka, looking at a 2009 team he despised, coming off a 2008 season that ended in bitter disappointment, faced with the prospect of entering into that wretched tournament once again, and seeing a window of opportunity to cash in before his Cinderella team turned into a pumpkin, it is easy to understand why he came to the decision he made as well.

Team #3: Salem Cowtippers

Like the Ridgebacks, the Cowtippers were expected to do great things in 2009.  Nine of the fifteen people who responded to the pre-season poll picked the Cowtippers to win the Butler Division.  But like the Ridgebacks, the Cowtippers have inexplicably underperformed all season.  While Salem's win total is actually a game better than their Pythagorean wins total, the Cowtippers have allowed a shocking number of runs this season as their pitching staff has completely collapsed:

With the exceptions of Delcarmen, Beckett and Myers, every pitcher on the Cowtippers owns BDBL numbers that aren't anywhere near their MLB numbers.

Chasing a team that has exceeded expectations throughout the season, it would seem that some "regression to the mean" is inevitable in the second half, and the Cowtippers should improve.  However, when you do the math, you discover just how steep that climb up the mountain has become for Salem.

New Milford is currently on pace for 92 wins this season.  Assuming they experience some regression, but that regression is offset by their recent acquisition of Halladay, 92 wins seems like a reasonable endpoint.  To reach 92 wins, Salem would need to play .670 baseball over the second half of the season -- a 107-win pace.  Given how this team has performed all season, this seems incredibly implausible.  Even the Los Altos Undertakers, who were predicted to be the best team in league history, have managed a winning percentage of just .632 this season.  Only two teams in the BDBL are currently winning at a pace greater than .670, and those two teams (the San Antonio Broncs and SoCal Slyme) would never be confused for the Cowtippers on paper.

Given those insurmountable odds, it would have been foolish and detrimental to my team's future success to continue "fighting the good fight" in the hopes of a stunning turnaround in fortune.  So, on May 17th, I made a decision I never dreamed I would make, and traded Dempster and Delcarmen to the Manchester Irish Rebels for Kurt Suzuki and others.

Since then, I have also unloaded a couple of relievers (Balfour and Billy Wagner) as well, but have added Javier Vazquez and several relievers.  So, after all the dust has settled, I have upgraded my offense at the expense of my bullpen, which should allow me to finish this season with a respectable record and avoid a penalty next season.

As for winning a title, math is math.  At the time of the Dempster trade, the Cowtippers trailed the Blazers by nine games.  That deficit grew to ten games after a series defeat at the hands of the 23-41 South Carolina Sea Cats.  But since then, thanks to a small Blazers collapse, that gap is now down to seven games.

Let's say the Blazers played .500 ball the rest of the season.  They would finish with 85 wins, which means Salem would have to play .600 ball to catch them.  Probably not going to happen.  The Blazers have played .417 baseball so far this chapter.  For chuckles, let's say that trend continues, and they play this poorly the rest of the season.  That would put them on pace for just 77 wins this season, and the Cowtippers would need to play just .500 baseball the rest of the way to finish at 78 wins -- a realistic goal.  A boy can always dream.

Team #4: Manchester Irish Rebels

While the Cowtippers were trading away their ace and their best reliever, the Irish Rebels were on the receiving end of that deal.  What makes that trade so interesting (aside from the whole barbeque aspect of the negotiations) is the fact that Manchester owns a much worse record (29-47, .382) than Salem (38-42, .475.)

The explanation for how such a trade occurred is simple: despite their horrendous record, the Irish Rebels were only five games out of first place at the time of the trade.  Since that time, Manchester has fallen to seven games back, and whispers are already being heard that they are shopping Dempster before he's even thrown a pitch as an Irish Rebel.

At the time of the deal, Doyle announced on his blog that this trade gave his team a "legitimate shot at the divisional title in the 2009 BDBL season."  How realistic are Manchester's chances of winning the Benes Division?  Not very.  Marlboro is on pace to win just 76 games this season, but Manchester is light years away from winning that many games.  They are currently on pace to win just 61 games.  If they played .500 ball the rest of the way, they'd finish with 71 wins.  The Irish Rebels would need to play .554 baseball through their remaining 84 games in order to finish with 76 wins, and that isn't likely to happen -- Dempster or no Dempster.

With the exceptions of Marcus Thames (808 OPS in MLB, 696 in BDBL), Kevin Kouzmanoff (732 MLB vs. 573 BDBL) and Yuniesky Betancourt (691 MLB vs. 483 BDBL), the Manchester offense isn't underperforming as a whole.  And with the exceptions of Paul Byrd (4.60 MLB ERA vs. 7.45 in the BDBL), Josh Outman (4.56 vs. 7.16), Odalis Perez (4.34 vs. 5.79) and A.J. Burnett (4.07 vs. 4.94), Manchester's pitching staff has performed about as well as expected.  So there shouldn't be a huge "regression to the mean" coming in the second half.

Even if Dempster and Delcarmen add eight wins to Manchester's year-end total (which would be astounding), the team would still finish with only 69 wins or so.  The Hammerheads would need to play .400 baseball the rest of the way to reach 69 wins, so even backing into a division title seems unlikely.  Manchester wll need a lot more than two pitchers to win a division title.

So the question now is whether Doyle and his cohort will hold onto Dempster and Delcarmen in order to avoid a steep (and sticky) penalty, or if they will flip both pitchers for 2010 value.  Given the latest rumors, it seems as though we'll see another Dempster trade before this year is through.  It will be interesting to see if Doyle gets more for Dempster than a full-time, $100K catcher, a quality middle reliever and a prospect.

Team #5: Marlboro Hammerheads

So far, we've reviewed GM's that have decided to throw in the towel, and those that have gone "all-in" on the 2009 season.  But now, we come to a franchise that has a long history of attempting to "rebuild while competing."  This franchise's former owner, Ken "Waffle King" Kaminski, practically invented this strategy when he traded several star players in 2003 for future considerations while leading the division by several games.  Kaminski was ultimately successful that season in winning the division (by a slight margin over the Salem Cowtippers) despite offloading all that talent.  Today, Nic Weiss hopes to duplicate that success.

On May 6th, following a demoralizing series against the Cleveland Rocks (who have specialized in demoralizing series for ten years now), Weiss announced on the Selling forum that every player on his team was available.  "Las Vegas can have this division," he wrote.  Ten days later, he then bumped the thread by naming several players with 2009 value.

Finally, on May 23rd, Weiss pulled the trigger, agreeing to a trade with the Allentown Ridgebacks where Tim Hudson and Joe Nelson were sent to Allentown in exchange for Jorge de la Rosa and two middle relievers with decent MLB '09 stats.

"Why try (to) contend with the monsters out West," Weiss implored.

BDBL history is littered with contending (and sometimes division-leading) teams who threw in the towel because they didn't feel they could compete with the "monsters" of their league.  BDBL history is also littered with playoff teams that were severely outmatched on paper, yet won their series, anyway.  In fact, this seems to happen every year.  If the BDBL's playoffs history has proven anything, it is that there is no such thing as a "monster" team in a short series.  All playoff teams are equal.

Later, when pressed, Weiss asked, "Which team in the Benes is better than me?"  The implication being that even without Hudson and Nelson, the Hammerheads were still the favorites in the division.  "I had Hudson," Weiss explained, "and only had a two-game lead in the division.  After three chapters, the rest of the division has shown they can't compete with the league.  I ONLY have to worry about beating people in my division."

Since that trade, Weiss has also unloaded relievers Damaso Marte, B.J. Ryan and Mike Lincoln, which leaves Brandon Morrow and Bill Bray as the team's best remaining relievers.  And in his most recent trade with Chicago, Jimmy Rollins has been replaced in his lineup with Jack Wilson.  Has Weiss overplayed his hand?  Is it possible that some team in the Benes Division may back into a playoffs spot, not by improving themselves, but because Weiss has decimated the Hammerheads roster?

Marlboro is currently playing .472 baseball, which puts them on pace to win 76 games this season.  The Flamingos and Infidels are both sporting records of 32-40 (.444), which puts them on pace to win 71 games.  If Marlboro drops to .460 over their final 88 games, and either Ravenswood or Vegas improved to .483, the Hammerheads fall out of the playoffs picture.

Not only is it possible that Marlboro will play .460 baseball (or worse) over their next 88 games -- it's a likelihood.  If Ravenswood and/or Las Vegas want a free pass to the playoffs, the door is wide open.  The problem is that no one seems to want it.