May, 2009

Top Ten Stories of 2009 (So Far)

Story #1: The New Milford Blazers

The Blazers are a regular feature in this article every year, it seems.  Either they are gunning for a new record for losses in a single season, blowing up the league with some new rules-bending strategy, or shocking the establishment by exceeding expectations well beyond anyone's wildest imagination.  This year, unfortunately, it's the latter.

As I type, the Blazers own a seven-game lead in the Butler Division -- the biggest lead of any team in the BDBL.  They own a .607 winning percentage (third-highest in the OL), and have scored more runs than any team in the BDBL not named the St. Louis Apostles.

And who is leading this high-powered Blazers offense?  Guys with names like Kapler (.393/.433/.607), Prado (.362/.423/.638), Navarro (.353/.404/.493), Spilborghs (.337/.446/.495) and Schumaker (.330/.355/.472).  And then there is the OL's reigning MVP, Jack Cust, who is sporting an OPS 178 points higher than his MLB OPS.  Cust owns a mind-numbing .506 OBP against left-handed pitchers (compared to .373 in MLB), and his SLG% against righties is a whopping .670 (compared to .487 in MLB.)  And Carlos Delgado, who hit just .267/.299/.490 against lefties in MLB, is slugging .286/.353/.610 against southpaws in the BDBL.

New Milford's starting pitchers have compiled a predictably awful 5.25 ERA (6th-worst in the BDBL), yet their offense is scoring so many runs it doesn't matter.  And they're hitting when it counts.  With runners in scoring position, New Milford is hitting .302/.391/.463.  With two outs and scoring position: .272/.375/.451.  With the bases loaded: .381/.423/.619.

The Blazers are a BDBL-best 17-7 against teams in their own division.  They have absolutely killed the Badgers (7-1) and Confederates (6-2) in the Butler Division, and the Irish Rebels (4-0) outside of the division.  And now, thanks to story #2 below, it appears their most glaring weakness has been strengthened greatly.  If Kapler, Prado, Spilborghs, Schumaker and the rest of the Blazers' short-usage pinch hitters continue to pound the ball for the next four chapters, this could be a very long summer.

Story #2: The Trade

We all knew it was only a matter of time before Roy Halladay became the latest grenade tossed into the pennant race tent.  In February, I wrote on this page:

With Halladay approaching free agency at the end of the season, he (along with Cleveland ace Cliff Lee) will be among the most highly-coveted players on the trade market this season.  The last time Potrafka owned a highly-coveted ace pitcher in his walk year (Johan Santana in 2006), he ended up with Encarnacion and Scott Olsen.  I think he can do even better this time.

Did he do better?  I'll leave that up to the reader to decide.  I'm pretty sure you all know where I stand.

What made this trade shocking is not only where Halladay ended up, but the fact that he was dealt so quickly, given the fact that ten days before the trade, Brian posted the following on the Selling forum:

I'll put Doc on the block next chapter, but if you want to try and overwhelm me with an offer before then go ahead.

If I'm not overwhelmed, and I probably won't be, I'm happy to wait.

Then, the very next day, he posted:

I've got a few offers, nothing close to overwhelming.

By "overwhelmed" I meant being blown away by a great trade offer, just to make that clear.

We'll wait I guess.

Evidently, Anthony Peburn submitted his "overwhelming" offer shortly after this post was made.  How important is Roy Halladay to the Blazers?  Well, here is what New Milford's starting rotation looked like prior to this trade:

Mark Guthrie: 2-5, 6.43 ERA, 71+ IP, 99 H, 12 HR, 22 BB, 52 K
Dave Bush: 10-2, 2.91 ERA, 77+ IP, 67 H, 8 HR, 14 BB, 40 K
Jorge Campillo: 5-3, 5.86 ERA, 62 IP, 72 H, 16 HR, 14 BB, 45 K
Brian Moehler: 3-3, 6.17 ERA, 42+ IP, 61 H, 8 HR, 8 BB, 17 K
Garrett Mock: 3-1, 6.93 ERA, 37.2 IP, 45 H, 7 HR, 19 BB, 35 K
Clayton Asswipe: 2-1, 4.56 ERA, 23+ IP, 26 H, 2 HR, 5 BB, 28 K

Halladay pushes every one of these pitchers down a spot in the rotation, and pushes Mock and Asswipe completely out.  If we replace the 12 starts by Mock and Asswipe with 12 starts from Halladay (who posted a 3.80 ERA in his 12 starts for Ravenswood), it's easy to envision the Blazers picking up at least three or four additional wins over the first two chapters.  Which means they'll pick up an additional 6-8 wins over the final four chapters.  And with a seven-game head start, those 6-8 wins will undoubtedly make a big difference in the Butler Division race.

So, yeah, this trade was a pretty big deal.

Story #3: The Griffin Division Race

The biggest story about this race is that it is a race.  No one (at least, not this writer) expected this to be a race, given the overwhelming dominance of the Undertakers on paper.  Yet, one third of the way into the season, Los Altos is still a second-place team due to the stellar play of the San Antonio Broncs, who own the best record (39-17, .696) in the BDBL.

Los Altos (104 runs) and San Antonio (90) rank #1 and #2 in the BDBL in outscoring their opponents.  They rank #3 (Los Altos) and #4 (San Antonio) in runs scored.  And they rank #2 (San Antonio) and #4 (Los Altos) in runs allowed.

The Los Altos pitching staff seemed to hit its stride last chapter, allowing just 100 runs in 28 games -- the lowest number in the league.  And in all likelihood, this performance will continue (if not improve) throughout the final four chapters of the season.  By the end of the season, we'll likely look back and laugh at how the Undertakers had to fight for their division title.  But regardless of the outcome, the Broncs have certainly proven they belong among the elite teams in the BDBL this season, and they will be a formidable force to reckon with in the post-season.

Story #4: The A-Rod Shuffle

Poor A-Rod.  His marriage is in shambles, and he's now running around with an aging former pop princess.  He's got a bum hip.  He's involved in a major steroids scandal that keeps getting bigger each day.  He's been photographed kissing himself in a mirror.  And his teammates call him "Bitch Tits."

But the man can hit.  And after playing ten seasons for the same team in the BDBL, A-Rod was finally traded in the final year of his contract this past winter, in a deal that brought Hiroki Kuroda, Alexi Casilla and Adrian Beltre to Bear Country.  (Not exactly a sweet deal for Matt, eh?)

A-Rod barely had time to settle into his St. Louis condo when he'd been ushered out the door once again -- this time to Marlboro, as part of a mega-blockbuster involving a dozen players.  Finally, last chapter, A-Rod was traded for the third time in less than three months, as the Hammerheads shipped him off to San Antonio in exchange for Pat Burrell and an assortment of trinkets.

So far, so good, for A-Rod's newest team.  In Chapter Two, the newest Pride of San Antonio hit .380/.496/.860, with 14 home runs and 31 RBI's, easily capturing the OL Hitter of the Chapter honors.  He's been a huge upgrade over Pat Burrell, and he's helped to keep the Broncs in contention for a league title many thought they'd have no prayer of winning.

Story #5: The SoCal Slyme

Coming off a BDBL-record 116-win season, the Slyme were expected to be contenders in the Person Division.  But with Curt Schilling gone, a starting rotation filled with the likes of Joe Blanton, half a season of Shaun Marcum and a 50-year-old Jamie Moyer, and only half a lineup, the Slyme weren't expected to come close to their 2008 record.  I personally predicted a third-place finish for SoCal, while only one out of the 14 people who voted in our pre-season poll picked the Slyme to win the division.

But Southern Cal bolted out of the gate with a league-best 20-8 record.  And one-third of the way into the season, they own the best record in the Eck League at 37-19 (.661) -- two games ahead of the St. Louis Apostles in their division.

How have they done it?  Well, for starters, staff ace James Shields has been nearly perfect, going 10-1 with a 2.55 ERA over the first two chapters.  Marcum has posted a neat 3.00 ERA in ten starts.  And Moyer has been solid, posting an 8-4 record and a 4.26 ERA.  Despite the fact that Ted Lilly (4.60 ERA in 10 starts) and Blanton (5.20 ERA in 12 starts) have been awful, they are a combined 10-6 on the season, despite below-average run support.

Offensively, Ryan Zimmerman was expected to be a liability, given his sub-par MLB numbers last year (.283/.333/.442), yet he's hitting like his head is on fire in the BDBL (.357/.416/.571), and would likely be the league's MVP at this point.  Part-time outfielder Dan Murphy (.350/.431/.467), Victor Martinez (.333/.383/.505) and Torii Hunter (.332/.401/.539) are also hitting way over their heads.

It's been a great story so far.  I just don't know how much longer it will last.

Story #6: Murderer's Row v.2009

We all knew the St. Louis Apostles offense would be great.  Even after A-Rod was traded last winter, the team was left with a lineup that included the reigning American League and National League MVP's, plus several other all-star-caliber hitters.  And after two chapters of play, it's no surprise to see the Apostles leading the BDBL in runs scored with 341 -- 17 more than the next-best team.

What is surprising is some of the individual performances of the St. Louis hitters.  And perhaps no player's performance has been more shocking this season than Dustin Pedroia's.  Pedroia is hitting .378 (52 points higher than his MLB batting average), owns a .430 on-base percentage (54 points higher than his MLB average) and is slugging .651 (a whopping 158 points higher than his MLB average.)  He hit 15 home runs through the first two chapters of the season -- despite hitting just 17 homers in 157 MLB games!

As expected, Albert Pujols (.341/.431/.628) is having yet another big year.  He's even underperforming a little bit overall, compared to his MLB performance.  But against lefties, Pujols is hitting a mind-rattling .489/.607/.809!

J.J. Hardy is slugging 54 points better than his MLB average, and has already hit 12 homers in two chapters, compared to 24 in all of MLB '08.  Against lefties, he's hitting .415/.475/.755, and has already matched the number of doubles he hit in all of MLB '08, in nearly 100 fewer at-bats!

With all of that hitting, you wouldn't think the team would need a quality pitching staff to stay in contention.  At least, that has been Bobby Sylvester's philosophy over the past several years.  Last year, the Apostles pulled off a seemingly miraculous trick by ranking fourth in the EL in ERA despite a pitching staff that I labeled one of the worst in the league.  Despite a high contact rate (just 6.0 K/9 as a team), the Apostles defense allowed a BIP average of just .252, keeping the run-scoring to a minimum.  In my pre-season preview, I called this a "Daffy Duck trick" and dared the Apostles to do it again.

So far, not so good.  St. Louis currently ranks #21 out of 24 teams in ERA at 4.99.  Once again, they are pitching to contact (just 6.3 K/9, good for #23 in the league), but despite a .279 BIP average (7th-best in the BDBL), the runs are scoring in bunches.  Yet, even with horrendous pitching, the Apostles own the second-best record in the EL, and are just two games from the division lead.

Story #7: The Atlanta Fire Ants

Just one season after the Fire Ants lost a BDBL record 118 games, they own a three-game lead in the Hrbek Division and a .607 winning percentage after two chapters.  Prior to the start of the season, there was some concern that Atlanta would never score enough runs to compete this year.  And with just 251 runs scored (ranked 19th in the BDBL), that concern was warranted.  But the Fire Ants have proven to be the polar opposites of the St. Louis Apostles, as their pitching and defense has been so good, their lack of offense hasn't been an issue at all.

Through the first two chapters, the Fire Ants own a team ERA of 3.08 (18 points below the single-season BDBL record.)  They're the only team in the league to allow fewer than 200 runs over the first two chapters, and they're averaging just 7.6 hits allowed and 7.4 strikeouts per game.  And defensively, opposing hitters are averaging just .263 on balls in play.

It just goes to show there's more than one way to assemble a winning ballclub.

Story #8: Luhning's Selling Post

Way back in 2002, the Kansas Law Dogs were off to a 35-19 start to the season when Chris Luhning did the unthinkable: he scrapped his entire team, sold off players to a competitor in his own division, and threw in the towel.  At the time, the Law Dogs were four games behind the division-leading Allentown Ridgebacks, and two in front of the eventual EL wild card winning Phoenix Predators.

Fast-forward to today.  The Law Dogs own a humble 29-27 record, yet that's good enough for a five-game lead in the pathetic Higuera Division.  Yet, on April 28th, Luhning made a pair of posts: one on the Buying forum, and another on the Selling forum.  It was his post on the Selling forum that raised more than a few eyebrows:

"Ok...so it looks like I'll be a couple of games up at the end of this chapter.  My team (in my opinion) is underperforming.  I've got some pieces I could move to make your team better...if you have some players who could help me next year...send me an offer."

'Nuff said.

Story #9: The Loser Division

After two chapters of play, no team in the Benes Division owns a .500 record.  The Las Vegas Flamingos are your current division leaders with a record of 27-29.  They are followed by the Marlboro Hammerheads, who were the presumptive favorites to win the division, yet trail by a game in the standings.  After trading away Alex Rodriguez in Chapter One, Marlboro went 16-12 in Chapter Two while A-Rod's replacement, Pat Burrell, hit .247/.375/.551 with six homers.

After Marlboro, the Ravenswood Infidels sit two games behind the division leaders, yet have just traded away their ace.  And trailing in last place are the Manchester Irish Rebels, who are once again failing to live up to expectations.  Despite the fact that they are 12 games under .500 and have been outscored by their opponents by 72 runs, the Rebs sit just five games out of first place, and could conceivably make up that ground with a couple of good series.

Story #10: The Allentown Ridgebacks

Which has been the most shocking development of the 2009 season for the Ridgebacks: a) the Ridgebacks are just 24-32, and have outscored their opponents by just four runs, b) Tom became the first owner in BDBL history to fire a (human) manager, or c) Tom recently announced that he will attempt to play head-to-head?

Despite pre-season predictions of greatness, the Ridgebacks have stumbled out of the blocks.  Their high-powered offense has been anything but, as the team owns a 744 OPS (ranked 16th in the BDBL), has scored just 258 runs (14th) and owns a batting average of just .253 (19th.)

On the mound, Allentown owns a respectable 4.18 team ERA (ranked 8th in the BDBL.)  But staff ace Tim Lincecum is just 5-6 on the season despite an ERA of 2.96, and Jake Peavy owns a 5.42 ERA -- nearly doubling his MLB ERA.  Scott Baker (5.02 ERA vs. 3.45 ERA in MLB) and Oliver Perez (5.09 BDBL vs. 4.22 MLB) are also stinking up the joint.

Desperate times call for drastic measures, and that's why Tom is taking the drastic measure of actually managing his team.  It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.