Editor's note: With Commissioner Glander packing for Denver, guest columnist
Peter "The Commissioner" Gammons supplies this month's FTDOTC column.

Has Excessive Regulation Killed Free Trade?

By Peter Gammons
Special to bigdaddybaseball.com

July 27

The final week before the annual BDBL trading deadline is normally a frenetic whirlwind of activity involving scorching trade rumors, big-name impact players being placed on the Selling block, heated multi-team bidding wars over the biggest names, desperate last-minute deals and countless blockbuster trades that lead to heated flame wars on the BDBL "Trade Announcements" forum.  A year ago, no fewer than twenty-eight trades were made at the Chapter Five deadline, involving a whopping sum of 135 players.  Among the big-name impact players and prospects traded during that time were Carlos Beltran, Tim Hudson, Carlos Marmol, Carlos Santana, Derek Jeter, Javier Vazquez, Jimmy Rollins, Scott Kazmir, Andrew McCutchen, Manny Ramirez, Neftali Feliz, Brian Roberts, Andre Ethier and Jake Peavy.

This year, with just four days to go until the big deadline, a grand total of eleven trades have been made as I type.  And aside from three big names (Jason Bay, Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Nathan), none of the players traded so far are likely to make much of an impact over the final two chapters.  (And one could argue how much impact relievers like Papelbon and Nathan could have at all.)

So what gives?  Has excessive regulation (in the form of restrictive new rules passed over the past couple of years) killed free trade in the BDBL?  Is there simply a dearth of trade bait this season?  Are there possibly too many contending teams and not enough teams waving the white flag?  Or has apathy completely enveloped the BDBL?

"Without a doubt, the rules we've put into place have had some effect on the trade market," stated one BDBL official close to the Commissioner's Office.  "We established those rules in order to reduce the number of earth-shattering trades being made mid-season and help preserve the integrity of the pennant races.  It took a few years for those rules to sink in, but I think we're definitely seeing a paradigm shift in the way that GM's are approaching their mid-season strategy."

Three rules, in particular, have made it more difficult for non-contending teams to trade their best players:

• An annual cap on the amount of VORP a team can trade during the season.  Already this season, we've seen one team (Mississippi) exceed that cap.  Great Lakes (-98.8) is right up against that cap, and is probably done trading for the year already.  And Bear Country (-80) and Kansas (-79.9) have very little wriggle room remaining.
• A penalty/bonus amount that carries over from season to season, beginning with the 2010 season.  One owner of a sub-.500 team recently told me, "I plan to keep a few of my better players this year -- players I would've traded in past years -- simply because I don't want to rack up too big of a penalty for years to come."  Another GM of an Ozzie League contender agreed, stating, "Owners like money, and want to hold onto as much as they can.  Every win equals more money for next season."
• Players signed as "Type H" free agents now have no-trade clauses in their first year under contract, beginning in 2008.  So some big-name impact players who are playing for non-contending teams (such as Roy Halladay) are off-limits.

Another issue that seems to be affecting the 2010 trading market is a dearth of quality trade bait -- especially on teams that are out of contention.  Just take a look at the teams that are currently 10 games or more out of their respective division and wild card races:

• Sylmar: The Padawans have exactly one player (Alex Rodriguez) who is capable of making a huge impact over the final two chapters.  Unfortunately, A-Rod is a "Type H" player, and cannot be traded.  Huston Street, with his 1.83 ERA and 492/619 splits, would normally be a major piece of trade bait.  But with a salary of $6.1 million next season, and $7.6 million in 2012, no one is banging down John Duel's door to get him.
• Bear Country: The Jamboree are already at -80 in the VORP column, and any impact players on their roster are long gone.
• Kansas City: Sadly, there are no true "impact" players on the Monarchs roster (which explains their 41-63 record.)  Their biggest trade chit, Papelbon, is already gone (traded for Ian Stewart and an injured David DeJesus), leaving Phil Hughes as their next best impact player for 2010.  Unfortunately (in terms of trade bait), Hughes has more value in 2011 than he does in '10.  Which means Manchester is probably done trading for the year.  An inside source tells me KC GM Jim Doyle offered to send Hughes to the South Carolina Sea Cats in a straight-up swap for catcher Buster Posey, but that offer was quickly (and wisely) rejected by Tony DeCastro.
• Las Vegas: The biggest trade bait on this team is Chase Utley.  Once a bargain, Utley will carry a $6.1 million salary in 2011 -- still "bargain" territory, but nowhere near the bargain he was a year or two ago.  Given that he will miss most of the 2011 BDBL season due to injury, it would seem that now would be the perfect time to trade him.  However, one BDBL GM told me that Utley has been deemed all but "untouchable" by the Vegas front office.  That same GM told me he offered an ace pitcher with a $100,000 salary and a sub-3.00 ERA in MLB '10 and a top prospect in exchange for Utley, and was turned away quickly.
• San Antonio: No one on the San Antonio roster is capable of bringing much in return.  (And if he were, he would've been traded by now.)
• New Hope: See above.
• Cleveland: Despite trailing in their division and in the wild card by double-digits, the ever-optimistic Mike Stein refuses to discuss even the smallest of trades, according to one GM.  This team's best hitter (Torii Hunter) and best pitcher (Ted Lilly) are both untradeable as Type H players, but Bobby Abreu, Bonson Arroyo and Jonathan Broxton are desirable players for a contending team -- if Stein ever decides to wave the white flag.
• Great Lakes: At -98.8 in VORP, Great Lakes is done trading for the year.
• South Carolina: The Sea Cats have yet to make a trade this season, which isn't all that unusual for GM Tony "Stand Pat" DeCastro.  Free agents-to-be Nick Swisher and Jarrod Washburn seem like the most viable candidates for trade if DeCastro decides to pull the trigger.  Swisher has drawn some interest from Atlanta, while the Blazers have been asking about Washburn.  The Ridgebacks are also in the hunt for a lefty starter, so something may happen there before the weekend is over.
• Villanova: Of course, the big story here was Zach Greinke, who was placed on the Selling block on June 16th and then yanked off the block about four weeks later.  I'm told that during those four weeks, Villanova received numerous offers -- including one that would have brought an outstanding young pitcher with guaranteed success in BDBL 2011, along with one of the top prospects in the game -- but in the end, GM Tony Chamra decided to play it safe and hold onto his ace.  At $7.6 million in salary in 2011, Greinke is no longer the bargain he once was, and it's highly doubtful his market value will ever be higher than it is right now.  But aside from Greinke, there is little on the Mustangs roster that would fetch much in trade.  UPDATE: I'm now being told that Greinke is back on the block.
• Kansas: After trading Nathan, Matt Thornton and Casey McGehee, the Law Dogs are all but done trading this season.
• Chicago: Cliff Lee, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Victor Martinez and Jose Reyes are all Type H players.  That leaves Miguel Cabrera as the only remaining player with significant 2010 value, and he's not going anywhere.  And GM John Gill is so content to stand pat that he's shown little interest in discussing even minor deals for utility infielders.
• Niagara: The Locks own the second-worst record in the BDBL, and have 96 VORP points available to trade, but all is quiet in the Nashville front office.  Despite his disappointing MLB 2010 season, shortstop Yunel Escobar has been deemed all but untouchable.  Third baseman Adrian Beltre, whose trade value could not have been higher than it was at the all-star break, is equally untouchable.  Josh Hamilton and Ryan Howard are also off-limits.  And Roy Halladay is a Type H player.  That leaves...well, nothing.  Which explains why the Locks haven't made many deals this year, and are unlikely to make a deal before the deadline.

As for the contenders, most of them seem content to ride out the rest of the season with the teams they have in place:

• "We haven't been seeking trades," said a front-office member of the Ravenswood Infidels.  "We haven't even attempted any, nor considered any, since the Lackey trade.  The level of tweaking we need is low, and the amount that people expect in return seems too high.  Unless that changes, I doubt there will be any further trading in Ravenswood this season."
• "I wouldn't mind adding a lefty starting pitcher," admitted Allentown GM Tom DiStefano. "But other than that, I'm pretty happy with my team."
• "We've tried, man," said an exasperated Salem Cowtippers front office rep.  "This trading market is just brutal -- probably the worst I've seen in my 12 years on the job.  We are making what we think are really good offers to teams -- offers that we would jump on in a nanosecond if the situation were reversed -- and we're either getting zero response, or we're getting counter-offers that are borderline insulting."
• "If we do anything else, it would be to add a left-handed bat," said Atlanta GM Gene Patterson.  "But I think our team is solid right now, so I don't plan on selling the farm to get that bat."

Of course, not all contending GM's have given up on making a blockbuster this season.  "We may have a WAY different looking infield," New Milford GM Anthony Peburn bloviated, "and may have an arbitrage trade as well."  Peburn also hinted that Gavin Floyd may end up in the Eck League by the end of BDBL Weekend -- a dubious prediction, given the source.  And St. Louis GM Bobby Sylvester is -- as always -- looking to make a blockbuster deal or two before the deadline.  "Our entire roster could change in 30 minutes.  There will probably be one or two giant trades, but I'd also like to upgrade our bench and maybe add another good reliever."

Theories abound as to why so few trades have been made this season.  One GM I spoke with blamed the lack of trading on the dominance of the Los Altos Undertakers.  "Last year they had a ridiculously loaded team that seemed destined to win the championship right from Opening Day," said this GM, "and they did."  With the Undertakers once again the obvious favorite this season, and with teams like Ravenswood, Southern Cal, St. Louis and Allentown completely dominating the competition, many teams are hesitant to sacrifice the future knowing that their odds of beating those teams in the playoffs are negligible.

Another Eck League GM agreed with that assessment.  "There aren't too many good -- let alone great -- pieces to be had from the lesser teams," stated this GM.  "Unless you are one of the powerhouse teams in the BDBL, it's not worth it to trade away your future for a small chance at glory."

"For the teams on the bubble," stated one Eck League GM, "I think some of them have already started looking toward the future rather than put up a fight for this season.  Look at Mississippi.  They had a fantastic team, yet dealt Manny Ramirez in Chapter Three in hopes of building some future super team."  He then added, "'Arbitrage' my ass."

Another Eck League GM of a contending team told me he believes that owners have become more financially responsible this year, and are taking a more long-term approach.  Instead of trading away the future for immediate benefit, he feels that some contending teams realize more than ever the value of top young prospects, and are thus more reluctant to part with them.

Of course, it is more than likely that we'll see a flurry of deals right before the deadline -- as we do EVERY year.  As one owner put it: "Teams usually feel the need to do something and get silly around deadline time."  Add a few beers and the Denver altitude during BDBL Weekend, and a few hastily-made blockbuster trades are almost a certainty.  In particular, three of the GM's attending BDBL Weekend in Denver told me they were deliberately waiting for that weekend to discuss their biggest blockbuster deals.  "It's just more fun to talk trade with all the guys in that atmosphere," admitted one GM.

It could make for a very interesting weekend.

Around the horn

» Despite a .600 record and a first-place standing in the EL wild card race, St. Louis GM Bobby Sylvester has inexplicably floated ace Chris Carpenter out there to several teams, evidently in an attempt to cash in on the "arbitrage" craze that is sweeping the under-30 demographic.  Although numerous offers have been made, including deals that would return much younger, healthier and cheaper starting pitchers in addition to prospects, Sylvester appears to be backing away from the table.  It is more than likely, however, that there will be quite a bit of chatter surrounding Carpenter during BDBL Weekend.  My prediction: Carpenter will be moved to Allentown, where he will join Tim Lincecum atop the Ridgebacks rotation.

» The San Antonio Broncs have been fielding numerous offers for their bevy of talented young starters, including Mike Leake, Brian Matusz, Neftali Feliz and Tommy Hunter.  Given their surplus of pitching, the Broncs could hook up with another team looking toward 2011 and swing a deal for some offensive help.

» Free-agent-to-be Brad Hawpe of the Bear Country Jamboree has been at the forefront of several discussions, as teams look to add a big-time left-handed bat for the playoffs.  However, with the Jamboree at -80 in the VORP column, a considerable amount of talent would have to go the other direction for that to happen.

» After nearly causing a Constitutional crisis earlier in the month, the Mississippi Meatballs incredibly now have more than 20 VORP points to play with before the deadline.  And anyone who witnessed Nic Weiss work the phones during last year's BDBL Weekend understands the amount of damage he can do with 20 VORP points of elbow room.  The latest rumors in Mississippi involve some big names, including Andre Ethier and Jason Bay.  Of course, Troy Tulowitzki is also always a subject of great discussion, and Colby Rasmus has drawn a great deal of interest as well.  Needless to say, Weiss isn't done just yet.  Look for the league's two 20-something GM's to spend a lot of time huddled together over BDBL Weekend, and don't be surprised if Tulowitzki ends up a member of the Apostles by the end of the weekend.  Such a move would give the Apostles an unprecedented infield that includes four Ex-ranged fielders around the horn -- all with above-average bats.

» Rumors are flying out of Los Altos that Matt Garza may be available.  Given the hasty exit of Ryan Dempster last season after his poor start, it wouldn't be that big of a surprise to see Garza (11-6, 4.62 ERA in 24 starts) shown the door this season.  The fact that he is having a sub-par MLB season this year (his no-hitter last night notwithstanding) only adds fuel to the speculation.  The question is who would take his place in the rotation.  Will Chris Carpenter be reunited with his old team?  Or perhaps Garza's MLB teammate Jeff Niemann would find a more suitable home in Los Altos.  Earlier this year, I heard rumblings that the Undertakers and Cowtippers were very close on a deal that would have brought Garza and a prospect to Salem in exchange for Felix Hernandez.  But that deal fell through, and Hernandez received the wake-up call and turned his season around in a hurry.

» The Atlanta Fire Ants would love to add a power left-handed bat to the lineup, and have targeted South Carolina slugger Nick Swisher.  However, the asking price for that two-chapter rental has been deemed too costly by Atlanta brass.

» The New Milford Blazers were "very close" to acquiring Dustin Pedroia in a deal with St. Louis, according to a source familiar with the negotiation, but Blazers GM Peburn got cold feet and backed out of the deal at the last minute.

» How desperate is Nic Weiss to kick off BDBL Weekend with a blockbuster trade?  My sources tell me Weiss actually switched his flight to Denver in order to have exclusive access to Los Altos GM Jeff Paulson.  After prying away the title of the league's best-looking GM from Paulson earlier in the season, Weiss is allegedly gunning after catcher Matt Wieters.  That should make for an interesting flight.