February, 2011

2011 Season Preview

Question: what do Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Hudson, Josh Johnson, Roy Oswalt, David Price, Jered Weaver and Clay Buchholz all have in common?

Answer: all ten pitchers rank among the top ten pitchers in baseball, by VORP...and all ten pitchers are in the Eck League.

Johan Santana (#13 in VORP), Matt Cain (#14), Justin Verlander (#15), Trevor Cahill (#19)Cliff Lee (#20), Mat Latos (#21), Brett Myers (#22), Tim Lincecum (#23) and C.J. Wilson (#24) are also Eck Leaguers.  So, out of the top 25 starting pitchers in baseball, NINETEEN of them are in the Eck League.  What does this mean?  Well, for starters, it means that runs will be at a premium in the Eck League, while the Ozzie League is more likely to resemble your local softball league.  It also means that the winner of the 2011 championship is more than likely to come out of the Eck League.  And given that five out of the past six championships went to Eck League teams, this is nothing new.

This year, there are two very scary-looking teams in the Eck League: the Kansas Law Dogs and Atlanta Fire Ants.  On paper, both teams look like surefire 100-game winners.  The Person Division once again looks like a two-team race among the Sylvester family, who have accounted for six Person Division titles in the past eight years.  And one of the biggest stories of the year will be whether or not the Great Lakes Sphinx can finally break their 12-year streak and play post-season baseball for the first time in franchise history.

In the Ozzie League, the only team that looks like a 100-win team is -- surprise, surprise -- the Los Altos Undertakers.  Coming off back-to-back 113-win seasons, the Undertakers don't appear to be slowing down a bit, and are the clear favorites to win the Ozzie League title.  The New Milford Blazers, Salem Cowtippers, Ravenswood Infidels and San Antonio Broncs also look like contenders.  And then, there is the Ozzie League's version of the Sphinx, the Manchester- err, Kansas City- err, New York Giants, who are staring down their own streak of 11 straight years without a playoffs appearance.  Is this finally their year?

There are several great stories brewing for the 2011 season.  But as always, the best stories will be the ones we never saw coming.  Last year on this page, I predicted the Corona Confederates would finish in third-place, the Undertakers would win the BDBL championship, and the Sphinx would win the EL wild card race.  However, I did correctly pick four of the six division winners, while the league as a whole predicted only three.  So that's something to hang my hat on, I guess.

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Kansas Law Dogs

Owner: Chris Luhning
2010 Record: 62-98 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Roy Oswalt, Matt Cain, Tim Hudson, Travis Wood, Chris Narveson, Luke Hochevar
Bullpen: Evan Meek, Joaquim Soria, Tim Stauffer, Jon Rauch
Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner (LF), Mark Ellis/Carlos Guillen (2B), Carlos Gonzalez (CF), Gaby Sanchez/Billy Butler (1B), Jose Bautista (3B), John Buck/Ryan Doumit (C), Nick Markakis (RF)/Gregor Blanco, Sean Rodriguez/J.J. Hardy (SS)

Strengths: An outstanding starting rotation, led by a guy who should get a lot of votes in the EL Cy Young balloting.  Prior to Oswalt's signing as a free agent at the ginormous sum of $45 million over three years, the Kansas rotation was very strong, fronted by a pair of aces, plus a combined full season from Wood (103 IP, 446/661 splits) and Stauffer (83 IP, 529/641.)  Oswalt's acquisition simply pushed everyone down a spot in the rotation, making them that much stronger.  In fact, I believe it bumps Stauffer out of the rotation completely, which then makes the bullpen even stronger.  With Stauffer, the Kansas bullpen now features three pitchers who would be closers for most of the teams in the BDBL.  And the lineup, featuring MVP candidate Gonzalez and 54-homer monster Bautista at its heart, is downright scary.  With projected platoons at first base, second base, catcher, right field and shortstop, we're looking at a lineup that features seven batters with 800+ OPS'es against lefties and five batters with 800+ OPS'es against righties.

Weaknesses: Usually, I can find something to nitpick, but I'm at a loss.

Outlook: The Kansas rebuilding project lasted all of a year.  After winning 90+ games three years in a row (including a BDBL championship) from 2007-2009, the 'Dogs spent this past year rebuilding.  They finished in last place, but added key pieces to the puzzle in Buck and Meek, loaded up on farm players like Mike Moustakas, Zack Cox, Neil Walker and Gerrit Cole, who were later used as trade bait to acquire more key pieces like Soria, Hudson, Sanchez and Markakis.  And by shedding the burdensome salaries of David Wright and Derek Lowe, the Law Dogs were able to nab the two biggest free agents of the 2011 market in Oswalt and Bautista.  Can we just vote now for the 2011 EL GM of the Year?

Prediction: 1st place, and Chris Luhning's second BDBL championship trophy.

Great Lakes Sphinx

Owner: Scott Romonosky
2010 Record: 70-90 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Ubaldo Jimenez, Jered Weaver, Johan Santana, Brett Myers
Bullpen: Koji Uehara, James McDonald, D.J. Carrasco, Jason Berken, David Robertson, Phil Coke
Projected Lineup: Martin Prado (2B), Starlin Castro (SS), David Wright (3B), Prince Fielder/Steve Pearce (1B), Corey Hart (RF), Carlos Ruiz (C), Alex Rios (CF), Adam Lind (LF)

Strengths: This is the best starting rotation in the BDBL.  Three full-time starters with CERA's under 3.00, and another with 224 innings and 688/678 splits (in an MLB hitter's park, no less!)  If Jimenez doesn't rank among the top three in the end-of-season EL Cy Young balloting, it will be the greatest travesty in BDBL history since Dan Haren's disastrous 2010 campaign.  Offensively, the starting lineup includes four hitters with a split OPS above 900, and there isn't a hole to be found from one through eight...except one.

Weaknesses: Given the strength of the rest of the lineup, that one hole is pretty glaring.  Adam Lind's OPS against lefties is just 341, and there doesn't appear to be a viable platoon mate for him on the 35-man roster.  Outfielders who can bash lefties are so plentiful that this problem is easily fixable -- so easy, in fact, that I can't help but wonder why it hasn't been fixed yet!  Aside from that one hole in the lineup, the bullpen also lacks a true stopper who can close out the game against lefties and righties.  That could be a major problem.  Unfortunately, this team doesn't have much in the way of young stars and prospects who could be traded for such a commodity.

Outlook: The window of opportunity for this team will be open very briefly.  With both Fielder and Wright becoming more expensive (and aging more rapidly than most players in their 20's), with Myers and Santana due to leave as free agents at the end of the season, and with Jimenez and Prado expected to regress to the mean, the 2012 Sphinx aren't likely to be world-beaters.  So, in all likelihood, it is 2011 or bust for Great Lakes.  As you may have heard, the Sphinx are the last remaining franchise in the BDBL to have never made it to the playoffs.  Last year, I predicted that 12-year streak would end, and Great Lakes would capture the EL wild card.  Instead, they finished in third place with 90 losses.  In 2008, I predicted Great Lakes would finish in second place and wrote: "this looks like a playoff-caliber team."  They finished in last place with 101 losses.  In 2007, I predicted a second-place finish for the Sphinx, and predicted they would win the EL wild card.  Again, they finished in last place with 89 losses.  If I were to write about what went wrong with those teams, it would fill a book.  (Hey, maybe I'll make that the subject of my next one!)  But this is a new year, and hope springs eternal.  Once again, I am predicting the Sphinx will end their long drought and win the EL wild card.  Scott...don't make me look foolish again.

Prediction: 2nd place, and the EL wild card.  Given the relative strength of the other three teams I'm predicting to represent the Eck League in the post-season, it could be a very short celebration in Great Lakes.  But at least it's something to celebrate after so many years of dismal failure.

Allentown Ridgebacks

Owner: Tom DiStefano
2010 Record: 109-51 (1st place, BDBL champions...again)
Projected Rotation: Tim Lincecum, Randy Wells, Kevin Slowey, Jair Jurrjens, Aaron Cook, Kevin Millwood
Bullpen: Ronald Belisario, Doug Slaten, Dillon Gee, Justin Duchscherer
Projected Lineup: Kelly Johnson (2B), Ryan Braun (RF), Jay Bruce (CF), Manny Ramirez (LF), Mark Reynolds/Ben Zobrist (3B), Todd Helton (1B), Carlos Santana/Josh Thole (C), Jason Bartlett (SS)

Strengths: Depth on offense.  For a team that is allegedly "rebuilding", the Ridgebacks have so much depth offensively, I don't even know where to put everyone.  They have over 9,000 plate appearances on their 35-man roster -- more than enough to fill TWO lineups for a 160-game season.  Some of the players not even listed above: Milton Bradley, Coco Crisp, Chris Denorfia, Brad Hawpe, Maicer Izturis, Felipe Lopez, Carlos Pena, Brendan Ryan, Luke Scott and Mike Stanton -- each with 275+ PA's.  I don't even understand why you'd carry this much depth.  I guess because you can?

Weaknesses: As deep as Allentown's offense is, their pitching staff is equally shallow.  Their rotation will be led once again by reigning EL Cy Young Tim Lincecum.  But beyond The Freak, there isn't much worth writing home about.  (But then again, the same was said of last year's rotation.)  Then, there's the bullpen.  Honestly, I have no idea what Tom's strategy is here.  There are only four relievers on Allentown's roster that are rated for the bullpen, and combined they totaled just 253 innings.  I'm making the assumption that some of the starting pitchers (such as Gee and Duchscherer) will be used as relievers this season.  But the question is: who is this team's closer?

Outlook: It's hard to believe this team just won its fourth BDBL trophy less than three months ago.  The 2010 Ridgebacks succeeded in large part because of shocking career years from two lifelong utility infielders (Bartlett and Zobrist), who predictably crashed back to earth in a big way.  Several other major contributors to the '10 trophy (Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman, Ian Kinsler, Garrett Jones, Rick Porcello) were traded this winter for prospects (Mike Trout, Jacoby Ellsbury, Peter Bourjos.)  What's left is a sad and empty shell of a former champion.  But don't feel too sorry for Tom.  Soon enough, Trout, Bruce and Mike Stanton will form the greatest outfield in the history of outfields, leaving Trader Tom free to trade Braun and Ellsbury for pitching.  The Ridgebacks will return to the World Series, where the Baseball Gods will see to it that they win a BDBL-record fifth trophy.  And all will be right with the world once again.

Prediction: 3rd place.  Oh, and Lincecum will be traded for more prospects.

Villanova Mustangs

Owner: Tony Chamra
2010 Record: 75-85 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Trevor Cahill, Chad Billingsley, Jeff Niemann, Chris Volstad, Ross Ohlendorf, Daniel Hudson
Bullpen: Brian Sanches, Carlos Carrasco, Will Ohman, Tony Sipp
Projected Lineup: Ichiro Suzuki (RF), Andrew McCutchen (CF), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Ty Wigginton (1B), Freddy Sanchez/Aaron Hill (2B), Chris Iannetta/A.J. Pierzynski (C), Cliff Pennington (SS), Denard Span (LF)

Strengths: Cahill, Billingsley, Niemann and Volstad form a pretty decent starting rotation, and Hudson is the ace of this staff for half the season.  In fact, here's an interesting bit of trivia: Daniel Hudson's 2010 MLB season featured a lower opponents' OPS than Zack Greinke's 2009 MLB season.  You can look it up.

Weaknesses: This lineup is scary.  And not the good kind of scary.  Only three hitters on the entire roster have a split OPS (vs. LH or RH) above 800.  Two projected starters (Pennington and Span) own an overall OPS below 700.  And three other projected starters (Suzuki, Alvarez, Wigginton) own sub-700 OPS'es against southpaws.

Outlook: While the Mustangs will be among the league leaders in ERA, it is hard to imagine a scenario where this lineup scores more than 600 runs this season.  So the best-case scenario is that 'Nova holds their opponents to 600 runs (something only two teams in the BDBL accomplished last season) and finish around .500.  The more likely scenario is that the Mustangs finish with somewhere around 65-75 wins.  Last year, that was good enough for second place in this division.  This year, finishing out of the basement would be an accomplishment.

Prediction: 4th place.  With no really enticing trade bait to offer to contending teams, Chamra's 2011 season will mainly consist of checking the MLB box scores and hoping that McCutchen, Alvarez, Cahill, Billingsley and Hudson continue to develop.

St. Louis Apostles

Owner: Bobby Sylvester, Jr.
2010 Record: 98-62 (2nd place, EL wild card)
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, C.J. Wilson, Carlos Silva, Jamie Moyer, Nelson Figueroa, Miguel Batista
Bullpen: Ryan Madson, Arthur Rhodes, Chris Perez, Nick Masset, Joba Chamberlain, Mitchell Boggs, Derek Holland, Brad Ziegler
Projected Lineup: Dustin Pedroia (2B), Austin Jackson/Cody Ross (CF), Albert Pujols (1B), Justin Upton (RF), Raul Ibanez (LF), Jorge Posada (C), Casey McGehee/Chris Johnson (3B), Alexei Ramirez (SS)

Strengths: Wainwright is a certified stud, and with Carpenter and Wilson aboard, this may be the best rotation this franchise has ever seen.  But as we all know, it's all about the bullpen.  After becoming yet another post-season victim of Tom DiStefano this past November, Bobby Sylvester received some sage words of wisdom from the reigning champ, and took those words to heart, building a strong bullpen to match his strong starting rotation and lineup.  And for the tenth year in a row (thanks, Dad!), Albert Pujols will anchor the St. Louis lineup, adding yet another monster year to his already ludicrous resume.  Pujols' career numbers so far: .325/.410/.610, with 366 homers and 1,163 RBI's.  He is averaging -- averaging -- 149.1 runs created per season.  This season, it will simply be more of the same.  Yawn.

Weaknesses: Now, to my amateurish eyes, the bottom half of this lineup doesn't look all that daunting.  Ibanez, Posada, McGehee/Johnson and Ramirez are decent enough hitters, but I just don't feel all that threatened by them.  But, of course, the Sylvester family has figured out the secret of Diamond Mind Baseball, and I have no doubt whatsoever that each of the players I just mentioned will post a 900+ OPS this season.  It's inevitable.  I don't even question it anymore.

Outlook: This looks like a different sort of Apostles team than the one we're used to.  Whereas St. Louis teams of the recent past would simply bludgeon opponents to death, this version seems to be a bit better rounded, and equally capable of winning 1-0 contests as 11-10 slugfests.  It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.

Prediction: 1st place.  Once again, a member of the Sylvester family captures the division title.  As always, the playoffs are a coin flip.  But with improved pitching, maybe that gives the Apostles a little better advantage than they've had in the past.  Of course, this roster will be completely turned over by the time the playoffs arrive, so this entire write-up will go out the window.

Southern Cal Slyme

Owner: Bob Sylvester, Sr.
2010 Record: 103-57 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Rick Porcello, Kevin Correia
Bullpen: Carlos Marmol, Daniel Bard, Brian Fuentes, Frank Francisco, Jonathan Broxton, Boone Logan, Michael Wuertz
Projected Lineup: Scott Podsednik (CF), Kevin Youkilis (3B), Paul Konerko (LF), Adam Dunn (1B), Victor Martinez (C), Mike Aviles (SS), Gerardo Parra (RF), Ryan Theriot (2B)

Strengths: 249 innings.  2.39 CERA.  593/576 splits.  And only 24 years old.  Only a fool would ever trade such a stud.  Felix Hernandez could very well be the most dominant pitcher in the Eck League this season (and for many, many years to come.)  But enough about him.  Let's talk about the Slyme bullpen!  Marmol (77+ inning, 590/508 splits) may just be the best closer in the league.  Bard posted a sub-2.00 CERA in nearly 75 innings, and has a nice reverse-platoon split with a 462 OPS against lefties.  But even Bard can't hold a candle to Fuentes when it comes to retiring left-handed batters.  Fuentes' OPS against lefties?  Three-seventy-one.  Hell, the Slyme's fourth-best reliever could close for some teams.

Weaknesses: You can't argue with the heart of this lineup.  Youkilis, Konerko and Dunn -- all free agents signed this winter -- form a very impressive core.  However...their supporting cast ranges from weak to laughable.  The leadoff hitter, Podsednik, owns a meager OPS of just 639 against lefties, and isn't all that impressive (754) against righties.  #5 hitter Martinez also owns a sub-700 OPS against righties, and doesn't have a platoon mate.  Aviles (642 vs. LH), Parra (701/674 splits) and Theriot (673/617) have similar issues.  Aside from the offensive woes, however, this team has some major issues defensively.  Martinez owns a Pr arm behind the plate.  Youkilis is a Vg first baseman, but will be playing across the diamond, where he's only rated Fr.  And Konerko will be playing (way) out of position in the outfield.  Add it all up, and I see an ugly BIP rate for this defense.  And given that Hernandez is backed by the best defense in baseball in MLB, this is likely to affect his performance the most.

Outlook: Two years ago, I predicted that the Slyme would be "hard-pressed to break the 90-win barrier" and they won nearly 100 games.  Last year, I wrote that "a repeat team performance like that is highly unlikely", and the bastards won 103 games.  I give up.  I don't see how this team can possibly compete this season, yet I know they will.  Somehow, some way, the Slyme will win 90+ games and be in the playoffs hunt throughout the season.  Just don't ask me how.

Prediction: 2nd place(?)  The EL wild card race may boil down to a three-team race between SoCal, Great Lakes and Chicago.  While the Slyme may not hold the advantage over those other two teams on paper, they hold the most important advantage of them all: the undying love of the Baseball Gods.

South Carolina Sea Cats

Owner: Tony DeCastro
2010 Record: 65-95 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Dallas Braden, Ian Kennedy, Livan Hernandez, Jonathan Niese, Jeremy Bonderman
Bullpen: Luke Gregerson, Wilton Lopez, Darren Oliver, Joel Hanrahan, Burke Badenhop, Jose Contreras, Ryan Perry, Blaine Boyer
Projected Lineup: Stephen Drew (SS), Hideki Matsui (LF), Buster Posey (C), Mark Teixeira (1B), Brandon Phillips (2B), Brandon Inge (3B), Marlon Byrd (CF), Jose Guillen (RF)

Strengths: Posey is one of the brightest young stars in the game, and should excel in his rookie season.  With Posey, Teixeira, Phillips, Drew and Inge, the Sea Cats not only have an infield that can excel offensively, but defensively as well.  Neither the starting rotation nor bullpen is spectacular, but they should get the job done and keep this team in the game more often than not.

Weaknesses: Aside from Posey, there really isn't an "impact player" on this roster who can carry a team on his back all the way to the post-season.  And Posey isn't available to play a full season this year.  Both Teixeira and Byrd will murder lefties, along with Posey.  But against righties, no hitter in the South Carolina lineup owns an OPS above 900 (though they do have four above 800.)

Outlook: My goal for this team last year was to avoid another 100-loss season, and they hit that mark with five games to spare.  This year, I'm upping the goal to 70 wins.  (Baby steps...baby steps.)  The good news for this franchise is that after eight years, they have finally escaped from Hank Blalock's contract.  Also in the "good news" category is that the Sea Cats have very little salary committed to the future.  Of the 35 players on the roster, only four are under contract beyond this season (plus one, Phillips, who must be signed as a Type H.)  And of those five, the highest salary among them is just $5.5 million.  So this team will have a ton of money to spend in the coming years.  The bad news is that the free agent crop grows worse and worse with each passing year.  But if you can imagine another year of growth and improvement from Posey, Drew and Kennedy, and if Freddie Freeman and Aroldis Chapman have stellar rookie seasons, it isn't difficult to imagine South Carolina being a contender in 2012.

Prediction: 3rd place.  With Teixeira, Matsui, Hanrahan and Oliver scheduled for free agency, there is a possibility we may see some trading later in the year if the Sea Cats decide to pack it in.  If DeCastro can add a good, young arm to the 2012 rotation, the 'Cats could be a contender sooner rather than later.

Niagara Locks

Owner: Mike Ranney
2010 Record: 54-106 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Roy Halladay, David Price, Jorge de la Rosa, Jake Westbrook, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Homer Bailey, Vicente Padilla
Bullpen: Francisco Cordero, Sergio Mitre, Peter Moylan, Chris Resop
Projected Lineup: Yunel Escobar (SS), Adrian Beltre (3B), Josh Hamilton (LF), Chris Young (CF), Ryan Howard (1B), Alex Gonzalez (2B), Chris Snyder/Jonathan Lucroy (C), Michael Bourn (RF)

Strengths: Halladay and Price.  (Or is it Price and Halladay?)  Is there a better one-two punch in the entire BDBL?

Weaknesses: Umm...I'm not sure what's going on with this team.  I understand the concept of "punting a category" in Rotisserie baseball, but this ain't Rotisserie.  GM Mike Ranney appears to be punting several categories, and for the life of me I can't figure out the master strategy behind it.  For example, who is this team's closer?  It can't be Cordero, who had a pretty bad year (3.96 CERA, 743/631 splits.)  Can it?  It certainly can't be Sergio Mitre.  Moylan and Resop were merely afterthoughts, picked up in the $100K rounds of the draft.  Can a team even survive without a bullpen?  Then, there is the outfield.  Right now, the only players I see rated in the outfield on this team's roster are Hamilton, Bourn and Young.  How can a team only have three outfielders (one of whom carries a sub-700 OPS?)  At catcher, I see two guys with sub-700 OPS'es, with the best option against righties being Snyder (678 OPS.)  And who is this team's second baseman?  No one on this roster is even rated at that position.  I just don't understand what's happening here.

Outlook: I think Ranney painted himself into a corner by spending $19 million on Halladay in last year's draft.  Unless you are carrying a roster full of $100K all-stars like the 2010 Undertakers, teams generally can't afford to spend 30% of their payroll on any one player.  BDBL history is littered with teams like the '09 Sphinx, the '07 Irish Rebels and the '07 Confederates who spent $19MM-plus on one player in the auction, only to suffer through an agonizing season of failure.  It's pretty obvious that this will be a rebuilding year in Niagara.  With that said, it's possible that we could see Halladay -- and possibly Beltre -- shopped around at some point this season.  Either player has the ability to shake up a pennant race -- and help rebuild this team into something that could possibly contend at some point in the near future.  The challenge will be finding a taker for Halladay's contract, and getting fair value in return for such an impact player.

Prediction: 4th place.  Halladay will be traded.  He won't fetch anything remotely resembling fair value.  Heads will spin.  Outrageous outrage will be expressed.  A dominant team will become even more ridiculously dominant, rendering the entire post-season pointless.  And eventually, we'll all get over it, and life will resume as usual.  Until the next time Halladay is traded.

Atlanta Fire Ants

Owner: Gene Patterson
2010 Record: 93-67 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Mat Latos, Clay Buchholz, Max Scherzer, John Danks, Wade Davis
Bullpen: Hong-Chih Kuo, Sean Marshall, Sergio Romo, Jose Valverde, Jonathan Papelbon, Kyle Farnsworth, Bobby Parnell
Projected Lineup: Ian Kinsler (2B), Chipper Jones (3B), Justin Morneau (1B), Jayson Werth (RF), Shelley Duncan/Matt Joyce (LF), Angel Pagan/Jason Michaels (CF), Miguel Olivo (C), Rafael Furcal (SS)

Strengths: When Jonathan Papelbon is your fifth-best relief pitcher, that's pretty impressive.  If any such records were kept, the Atlanta bullpen might break them all this season.  Kuo's numbers are almost cartoonish: a 1.07 CERA, a 460 OPS allowed against righties, and a -- get this -- 271 OPS against lefties.  Yes, you read that right; that's not a misprint.  Among all pitchers in the league that are eligible to pitch this season, Kuo owns the lowest opponents OPS (403) of them all.  Just for good measure, I guess, Atlanta also has three other relievers with a sub-600 OPS.  That's just plain ridiculous.  Then, there's the starting rotation.  Among all pitchers in baseball with more than 100 innings pitched, Latos ranks behind only King Felix in opponents OPS (615).  In fact, among pitchers with 150+ innings, Atlanta owns two of the top eight in that category, with Buchholz being the other.

Weaknesses: PA-for-PA, Morneau is the best hitter in the league.  The problem is that he'll only be on the field for half the season.  For the other half, Atlanta will have to rely on guys like Shelley Duncan, Eric Hinske and Jim Thome to pull up the slack.  Of course, if you platoon Hinske and Thome, you get a guy with 1219/1154 splits, so maybe that's not really a big deal.  Hey, it's not always easy finding a weakness to write about!

Outlook: It seems like SO long ago that the Fire Ants set a BDBL record for losses in a single season, yet it was only 2008.  This franchise has come a LONG way since then.  Where Akron and Chicago once owned this division for seven years straight, the Fire Ants are now the two-time reigning division champions.  And from the looks of it, they aren't about to abdicate their throne any time soon.  This team has it all: pitching, defense, offense, and perhaps most importantly, youth.  Scherzer is signed for two more years beyond this one, Danks is locked in through 2014, and Buchholz through 2016.  And the team's ace, Latos, hasn't even used up his option year yet.  If the Fire Ants can stockpile a few young bats as well, look out.

Prediction: 1st place.  After getting swept out of the Division Series by the Ridgebacks last year, the Fire Ants are well-positioned to return to the ELCS for the first time since 2009.  Let's hope they put up more of a fight this season.  It's been awhile since someone new won that trophy.

Chicago Black Sox

Owner: John Gill
2010 Record: 77-83 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Paul Maholm
Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez, Jason Motte, Leo Nunez, Guillermo Mota, Octavio Dotel, Pedro Feliciano
Projected Lineup: Drew Stubbs (CF), Rickie Weeks (2B), Miguel Cabrera (1B), Pablo Sandoval/Aramis Ramirez (3B), Matt Wieters (C), Jed Lowrie/Geoff Blum (SS), Travis Snider (RF), Fred Lewis (LF)

Strengths: John Gill's 3-year/$30 million gamble on Cliff Lee sure paid dividends, eh?  With Lee, Greinke, Dempster and Zambrano at the top of the Chicago rotation, the Black Sox can compete with just about any team in the league.  Add to that the awesomeness that is Miguel Cabrera, and you have the foundation of a contender.  Cabrera is one of those rare players who posted a 1.000+ OPS against both lefties and righties.  Not even the great Albert Pujols managed that trick last year.

Weaknesses: With more than $31 million allocated to Chicago's front four starters, and another $7.6 million set aside for Cabrera, there wasn't much money left with which to provide Miggy with much protection in the lineup.  Weeks (a $6.1MM expense himself) was brought onboard this winter, but his lopsided splits (1025 OPS vs. LH, 769 vs. RH) make him less of an asset.  Gill spent another $3.5 million in the auction on Ramirez, but he, too, has some split issues (816/722).  The most glaring hole in this lineup is in the outfield, where there doesn't appear to be a lot of options between Melky Cabrera (642/685), Lewis (636/776), Nate McLouth (378/685), Rusty Ryal (712/596), Snider (702/783) and Stubbs (789/765).

Outlook: The Black Sox franchise has been known for its offense-first philosophy since its inception, but this year's team definitely bucks that trend.  Chicago may only be a couple of bats away from serious contention, and they have the cheap, young trade bait they would need to acquire those bats.  But if past history is any indication, Gill will wait a chapter or two to see how the season unfolds before he makes any radical moves one way or the other.  In all likelihood, the division title is probably out of the question, as the Fire Ants are just too tough.  But the EL wild card should be within reach.  And if it should become a two-team race between Chicago and Great Lakes (and I believe it will), the Black Sox would hold a major advantage by playing 16 games each against the Rocks and Ryche.  But still, I'm sticking with my prediction that this will finally be the Year of the Sphinx.

Prediction: 2nd place, and just missing the wild card by a game.

Akron Rÿche

Owner: D.J. Shepard
2010 Record: 76-84 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Tommy Hanson, Randy Wolf, Johnny Cueto, Jhoulys Chacin
Bullpen: Eric O'Flaherty, Brandon League, Shawn Camp, Chris Ray, Carlos Villanueva, Jerry Blevins, David Hernandez
Projected Lineup: Daric Barton (1B), Jason Kubel/Ben Francisco (LF), Logan Morrison/Seth Smith (RF), Andruw Jones (CF), David Ross/Ramon Castro (C), Blake DeWitt/Jayson Nix (2B), Jhonny Peralta (3B), Asdrubal Cabrera (SS)

Strengths: With Verlander and Hanson, the Ryche have a pair of aces at the top of their rotation, each with 200+ innings and a sub-650 OPS.  Wolf, Cueto and Chacin more than capably fill in the rest of the rotation.

Weaknesses: I'm not sure what to make of this offense.  I know there must be some reason for it, but for the life of me, I just can't understand it.  Sort of like NASCAR.  Or FIFA.  Or the United Nations.  In attempting to devise a projected starting lineup for this team, I couldn't find a decent leadoff hitter.  Or cleanup hitter.  Or #3 hitter.  The lineup is basically filled with #7 hitters.  And I'm not sure why or how this could have happened.  Does DJ Shepard just not care?  Did he just throw his hands in the air and give up halfway through the draft?  Was he not able to conceive of a single trade that would help his team this winter?  Did he just graduate from the Geisel School of General Management?  What gives?

Outlook: Unfortunately, Mr. Shepard took a vow of silence back in 1998, so we'll never know what he was thinking when he constructed this roster.  Nor will we ever learn why he left a whopping $15 MILLION on the table this winter.  Just looking at the order in which players were drafted, and Akron's place in the draft, Shepard could have easily selected Ryan Doumit, Jim Edmonds and Rafael Betancourt in the $5MM rounds.  All three would have provided Akron with some production this year and (perhaps more importantly) trade bait later in the year.  In the $2 million rounds, Shepard could have made four more selections, but passed.  He could have selected players like Kenley Jansen, Will Rhymes, Chris Heisey and Frank Francisco with those picks -- all great trade bait.  Or, he could have taken a flier on a youngster like Brandon Beachy.  But instead, he passed.  I just don't get it.  The Ryche will eventually bounce back.  Dustin Ackley, Domonic Brown and Logan Morrison look like terrific young players, who may all make an impact as early as next year.  But the art of trading is how civilizations were built, and how societies came to prosper.  If only they taught this concept at the Geisel School of General Management, the Ryche wouldn't be in the mess they are today.

Prediction: 3rd place, and 100+ losses.  The only thing keeping this team out of the cellar is...

Cleveland Rocks

Owner: Mike Stein
2010 Record: 83-77 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Josh Johnson, Shaun Marcum, Ricky Nolasco, Ted Lilly, Mitch Talbot
Bullpen: Ryan Franklin, Trever Miller, Dan Wheeler, Scott Atchison, Manny Corpas, Rafael Perez, Fernando Rodney
Projected Lineup: Dan Johnson (3B), Torii Hunter (CF), Bobby Abreu (LF), Vladimir Guerrero (RF), Juan Rivera (1B), John Jaso/Russell Martin (C), Jason Donald/Aaron Miles (2B), Edgar Renteria (SS)

Strengths: Johnson is again the team's greatest asset this season.  184 innings, 2.44 CERA, nice and even 612/602 splits...mmm...that's good.

Weaknesses: Here is yet another team causes my head to shake back and forth, uncontrollably, wondering what the hell they were thinking.  When you go into the winter with no first baseman, second baseman, shortstop or third baseman, why on earth would you spend $10 million of your available $17.6 million on a starting pitcher -- especially one who posted an ugly 861 OPS against righties?  I have no doubt whatsoever that Marcum will have a fantastic season in MLB this year after his trade to the No-DH league.  But when you already have a couple of decent starters and so many holes to fill...ugh.  This is another lineup that was difficult for me to fill out, as there is no one who belongs in the #1 through #3 spots in the lineup, and no one to protect Guerrero out of the cleanup spot.  Guerrero and Hunter are the only two hitters on the Cleveland roster with an OPS over 800.  And there are only three other players (two of them part-timers) with an OPS over 750!

Outlook: If this team scores 600 runs this year, it'll be a miracle.  The Rocks won 83 games two years in a row, but that streak will end in an ugly way.  The only question surrounding the Rocks this year will be: which is the worst BDBL team based out of Ohio?  It may take a full season to find out the answer to that question.  As awful as the Ryche are, and despite their having flushed $15 million down the toilet, my money is on the Rocks.

Prediction: 4th place, and at least a $5 million penalty.

 

BUTLER DIVISION

New Milford Blazers

Owners: Anthony Peburn
2010 Record: 90-70 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Clayton Asswipe, Brett Anderson, Yovani Gallardo, Jeremy Guthrie, Gavin Floyd
Bullpen: Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow, Santiago Casilla, Casey Coleman, Jensen Lewis
Projected Lineup: Wilson Betemit (3B), Robinson Cano (2B), Brian McCann (C), Russ Branyan/Wes Helms (1B), Andres Torres/Shane Victorino (CF), Mike Morse/Jim Edmonds (RF), Jack Cust/Matt Diaz (LF), Bill Hall/Ian Desmond (SS)

Strengths: In keeping with New Milford's rich tradition, the Blazers lineup will be filled with the usual assortment of platoon players -- all with 800+ OPS'es against lefties or righties.  In fact, the only sub-800 OPS in the lineup is the shortstop against lefties (Desmond came up just short at 799.)  Playing in a home ballpark that is roughly the size of your average elementary school gymnasium, the Blazers should easily score 900 runs this season.  New Milford's pitching staff is also a strength, from #1 starter Asswipe all the way down to the 12th man on the staff.  There isn't a bum in the lot.  Combined, New Milford's pitchers posted a 3.43 CERA in MLB last season, with an opponents OPS of just 684.

Weaknesses: Whenever you rely this much on platoons, you become highly vulnerable to teams that employ the "cover pitcher" strategy.  But since so many teams are opposed to the notion of cover pitchers as a matter of principle, I guess Peburn has nothing to worry about.  Also, pitchers with drastic reverse splits are New Milford's kryptonite.  Just in case you were wondering.

Outlook: It's the same old story, year after year, in New Milford.  Peburn's strategy hasn't changed since he came into the league -- and why should it, given his success?  It's a simple two-step strategy.  Step One: load up on cheap, low-usage pinch hitters with drastic splits, and cheap middle relievers with drastic splits.  Step Two: because these players have no future value, simply discard them at the end of the season (recovering all of their salary), and then repeat Step One.  There's no need to lock in any player beyond a year (not that they'd be worth it, anyway.)  And there's no reason to ever sign a player for more than $5 million, since that would eliminate the advantage of hindsight.  But a funny thing happened this past winter.  Peburn actually signed a player for more than $5 million.  In fact, he spent a whopping $15 MILLION on Cano, making him the highest paid hitter in the BDBL.  He also gave Anderson a contract through the 2018 season, which means the Blazers now have THREE starting pitchers who are each signed through at least 2017 (Anderson, Gallardo and Asswipe.)  Maybe Peburn is changing his ways after all these years.  Maybe he's finally seen the light, and is making an effort to play this game in an honorable, realistic manner by putting a realistic team on the field and playing the game the way it was meant to be played.  Nah.  He's still the same old asshole.

Prediction: 1st place.  New Milford's franchise-high in wins is 95 (back in 2009.)  If that's the over/under, I'm taking the over.

Salem Cowtippers

Owner: Mike Glander
2010 Record: 95-65 (2nd place, OL champions)
Projected Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Colby Lewis, Stephen Strasburg, John Lackey, James Shields
Bullpen: Darren O'Day, Billy Wagner, Matt Belisle, Bobby Jenks, Zach Braddock
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes (SS), Placido Polanco (2B), Ryan Zimmerman (3B), Matt Holliday (LF), Corey Patterson/Matt Kemp (CF), Pat Burrell/Lastings Milledge (RF), James Loney/Troy Glaus (1B), Ryan Hanigan (C)

Strengths: Despite trading Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke and Dan Haren this winter, the starting rotation is still a strength of this team.  Zimmerman and Holliday are a couple of studs in the heart of the lineup.  The infield features three above-average gloves.  And the bullpen is stacked with two bona-fide closers in O'Day (561/542 splits) and Wagner (246/569), backed by three very talented setup men.

Weaknesses: All those trades have left the back end of the Cowtippers rotation extremely weak.  Because they're so short on innings, Salem will need to rely upon Shields (an ugly 5.21 CERA, and an even uglier 796/866 splits) to take the ball four or five times per chapter.  And thanks to the inexplicable hording of plate appearances by a handful of teams in the BDBL, the offense is also running short on usage, leaving Salem without much of a bench at all.  After the trade of franchise mainstay Mark Teixeira this winter, Salem's first base platoon is probably the weakest in the league.  And once Hanigan's usage is exhausted (by the all-star break), the catcher's spot in the lineup will become as beneficial as the pitcher's spot.

Outlook: This is a "wait-and-see" year for Salem.  On paper, the Cowtippers look decent enough to make another run at the playoffs.  But as we all witnessed last year, it doesn't always matter how a team looks on paper.  If Salem gets off to a hot start, it's conceivable that they could add another arm, and maybe another bat, and attempt another late-season miracle.  A slow start could see players like Liriano, Wagner and Holliday being placed on the Selling forum.  Or, in a worst-case scenario, the Cowtippers will get off to a .500 start, leaving this team in the same state of limbo as they were last year.

Prediction: 2nd place, and just missing the wild card.  This team fails to inspire me with visions of returning to the BDBL World Series.  Since Tom isn't likely to return, either, it's really pointless to even think about it.  Playing in a World Series without Tom would be like watching a movie without popcorn.

Buckingham Badgers

Owner: Tony Badger
2010 Record: 54-106 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Jaime Garcia, Tommy Hunter, Armando Galarraga, Edinson Volquez, Dave Bush, Josh Beckett
Bullpen: Takashi Saito, Matt Capps, Jose Veras, Chris Capuano, David Purcey
Projected Lineup: Brooks Conrad/Ryan Raburn (2B), Rajai Davis/Ryan Ludwick (CF), Derrek Lee (1B), Alfonso Soriano (LF), Cole Gillespie/Mitch Moreland (RF), Yadier Molina (C), Melvin Mora/Adam Rosales (3B), Alexi Casilla/Yuniesky Betancourt (SS)

Strengths: Why Bobby Sylvester was so eager to get rid of a 23-year-old left-handed ace from his favorite MLB ballclub remains one of the mysteries of the winter of 2011.  Garcia posted stellar splits (550/660) in 163+ innings, and should be a very effective pitcher in Buckingham this season.  The rest of the Badgers pitching staff doesn't blow you away, but it's decent enough to keep this team in the games.

Weaknesses: The Badgers lineup is a Blazers-like patchwork of 29-to-35-year-old career fourth outfielders and utility infielders.  And yet, like the Blazers, it somehow works on some level.  With platoons at nearly every position, the Badgers can start a player at almost every position with a 750+ OPS against either lefties or righties.  But aside from Raburn (929 vs. LH) and Soriano (944 vs. LH), there isn't an 850+ OPS in the bunch.  This is the type of lineup that will drive opposing managers insane by stringing together a bunch of bloop hits and infield singles.

Outlook: What's in a name?  When the Badgers first came into the league, their hometown of "New Hope" seemed so appropriate.  Not only did it fit into the Star Wars theme that has pervaded throughout the league since its inception, but after years of neglect by the Geisel administration, it was thought that Tony Badger's leadership would give this franchise a new lease on life -- a new hope for contention at some point in the distant future.  Back then, few of us could have ever predicted how quickly Badger would turn this franchise around.  The very next year, Badger guided his newly-reconstructed team to an improbable second-place finish.  Just two short years later, the Badgers achieved the impossible by returning to the playoffs.  "New Hope" had become a new reality.  But the very next season, the team fell back into last place.  The following year, they lost 98 games and finished last once again.  And this past season, the team lost 106 games, continuing the downward trend.  Today, the New Hope Badgers are a thing of the past, having been relocated to Buckingham this off-season.  Perhaps this change in name will coincide once again with a change in fortune.  One can always hope.

Prediction: 3rd place.  As the Obama administration has proven, "hope" can be highly overrated.

Corona Confederates

Owner: Ed McGowan
2010 Record: 96-64 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Anibal Sanchez, Derek Lowe, J.A. Happ, Joel Piniero, Justin Masterson, Kyle Kendrick
Bullpen: Brandon Lyon, Drew Storen, Edward Mujica, Aaron Laffey, Jose Mijares
Projected Lineup: Joe Mauer (C), Jeff Baker/Shin-Soo Choo (RF), Adam LaRoche/Kendry Morales (1B), Michael Young (3B), Mark DeRosa/Howie Kendrick (2B), Erick Aybar (SS), Roger Bernadina/Trevor Crowe (CF), Michael Saunders (LF)

Strengths: All three offensive stars from last year's division championship team have returned, and all three absolutely pummel right-handed pitching: Joe Mauer (978 OPS), Kendry Morales (1002) and Shin-Soo Choo (998).

Weaknesses: The bad news?  All three of those players mentioned above struggled mightily against lefties: Mauer (711), Morales (548) and Choo (670).  You won't find more drastic splits from many other players in this league who are expected to be full-time players.  Quite simply, left-handed pitching will tear this team apart all season.  The bottom half of this lineup is a real problem as well.  I wasn't even sure how to fill out that lineup, as there just weren't enough decent hitters to spread around.  I ended up going with Saunders (601/686 splits) in right field, simply because I had no idea who else could possibly play the position.  If Saunders actually does play right field for the Confederates, he may likely be the worst right fielder in the history of this league.  And unfortunately, Aybar (609/646) and the platoon of Bernadina and Crowe (757/679) aren't much better.  For all intents and purposes, once you get past the #4 hitter in this lineup, it's clear sailing the rest of the way.  And if you have a lefty on the mound, you don't even need to worry about the first four.

Outlook: Last year in this space I wrote: "The Confederates franchise is in trouble."  Corona then busted out of the gate, never looked back, and captured a division title by one game over the hard-charging Cowtippers.  Boy, is my face red.  Given that awful prediction last year, I don't even think I'm qualified to make predictions in this space anymore.  I never saw the Confederates coming last year, and I feel the same way about them this year.  But if past history is any indication, all this means is that Michael Saunders will post a 900 OPS, knock 45 homers over the wall, and win the OL MVP award.  It seems just as likely now as a Confederates division crown did last year at this time.  So I guess anything truly is possible.

Prediction: 4th place.

New York (Baseball) Giants of Manchester, New Hampshire, via Kansas City

Owner: Jim Doyle
2010 Record: 64-96 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Gio Gonzalez, Brett Cecil, Phil Hughes, Edwin Jackson, Jake Peavy, A.J. Burnett
Bullpen: Scott Downs, Dan Runzler, Sergio Santos, Chan Ho Park
Projected Lineup: Marco Scutaro (SS), B.J. Upton/David DeJesus (CF), Nelson Cruz (RF), Joey Votto (1B), Kevin Kouzmanoff/Ian Stewart (3B), Laynce Nix (LF), Orlando Hudson (2B), Yorvit Torrealba/Kelly Shoppach (C)

Strengths: In terms of depth, the Giants' starting rotation is arguably the best in the Ozzie League.  Gonzalez is a stud with sub-700 OPS'es against both lefties and righties, Cecil shuts down opposing lefties, and Hughes and Jackson are as solid as a couple of rocks.  Votto may be the best hitter in the Ozzie League, and Scutaro, Upton/DeJesus and Cruz should do a fine job setting the table.

Weaknesses: I guess when you spend $22.5 million on your #5 and #6 starting pitchers, it doesn't leave much room under the cap to fill out a bullpen.  Downs is a capable closer, and Runzler is a decent enough setup man (although limited in usage.)  One problem is they are both lefties, and the third man out of the 'pen (Santos) is a reverse-split righty.  Another problem is that there just aren't enough quality innings available in the middle innings, and that could play a major role in this team's fortunes until that hole is filled.  Another issue with the Giants is their choice of home ballparks.  While it was hardly a shock when Doyle chose Pac Bell Park (or whatever it's being called this week) as his home park, it is a terrible park for left-handed home run hitters like Votto (a factor of 84 vs. 107 for Great American Ballpark), and it's even worse for righty power hitters like Cruz (a factor of 68 vs. 110 for The Ballpark in Arlington.)  Why you'd intentionally neuter your two best hitters, just so you can play in your favorite team's (this week) park, is a question only Jim Doyle could answer.  (Note to Jim: you do realize that the ballpark image is just for show...right?)

Outlook: After enduring ELEVEN straight sub-.500 seasons, including six last-place finishes, no one can deny that Jim Doyle has paid his dues.  Is it finally time for Doyle to enjoy a little bit of success in the BDBL?  Maybe, maybe not.  While it would undoubtedly be the feel-good story of the year, I just don't look at this Giants team and see a surefire winner.  The good news is that there isn't a lot of competition in this division, so the Giants won't need to win 100 games in order to make it.  Hell, 85 wins might suffice.  The bad news is that there is still a lot of work to be done, and I'm not sure that New York has the trade bait needed to secure the players they will need to carry them into November.

Prediction: 1st place.  If past history is any indication, expect Doyle to trade a lot of young talent this season to fill in the holes in his bullpen and lineup.  Not that the Giants have a lot of young talent to spare, but you get the point.

Ravenswood Infidels

Owner: Brian Potrafka
2010 Record: 110-50 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Wandy Rodriguez, Fausto Carmona, Mark Buehrle, Bruce Chen, Javier Vazquez
Bullpen: Brad Lidge, Rafael Betancourt, Joe Thatcher, Alexi Ogando, Logan Ondrusek, Tyler Clippard, Elmer Dessens, Justin Germano
Projected Lineup: Kosuke Fukudome (RF), Brian Roberts/Jamie Carroll (2B), Scott Rolen (3B), Aubrey Huff (LF), Lance Berkman/Carlos Lee (1B), Geovanny Soto (C), Dexter Fowler (CF), Jimmy Rollins/Matt Tolbert (SS)

Strengths: All three of Ravenswood's 20-game winners from last year return this year.  Although Vazquez suffered through a miserable year, Carmona stepped into his place ably enough, maintaining a nice three-man foundation.  The Infidels certainly have enough bullpen arms to get by.  They have so many relievers, several of them won't even make the active roster.  And the lineup is filled with capable hitters from one through eight.

Weaknesses: Star power.  It's unlikely that any of Ravenswood's pitchers will earn a vote in the OL Cy Young balloting at the end of the season.  And it's even more unlikely that any of Ravenswood's hitters will appear in the OL Babe Ruth or MVP balloting.  Not that a contending team needs that type of player, but it is highly unusual.  In 2005, for example, the Sylmar Padawans won a division title despite having no hitter appear in the MVP ballot, and only one pitcher (Roy Halladay) gaining two votes in the Cy Young balloting.  These Infidels have a lot in common with that Padawans team.

Outlook: Several Infidels players enjoyed career years last year, including Adam Lind, Pablo Sandoval and Javier Vazquez.  When all three players regressed to the mean this past year, it was inevitable that the Ravenswood team would suffer along with them.  Despite all the hardship, however, this team has held up well, and appears poised to put together another competitive season.

Prediction: 2nd place.  I think this race will be pretty tight, and I can see the top three teams finishing no more than five games apart from each other.  I can also see the winner of this division winning no more than 85 games.  So this race will ride almost solely upon head-to-head record within this division.  And those things are impossible to predict -- even for a seasoned prognosticator such as myself.

Mississippi Meatballs

Owner: Nic Weiss
2010 Record: 90-70 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Nate Robertson, Jeff Suppan
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Joel Peralta, Huston Street, Kerry Wood, Chris Sale
Projected Lineup: Derek Jeter (3B), Troy Tulowitzki (SS), Dan Uggla (2B), Colby Rasmus/Carlos Beltran (CF), Andre Ethier/Jonny Gomes (RF), J.D. Drew/Jason Bay (LF), Jason Giambi (1B), Gerald Laird/Jason Varitek (C)

Strengths: The starting lineup is stacked with thumpers, including seven hitters with a split OPS of at least 874.  Hamels continues to be a reliable and dominant ace at the top of the rotation, and it doesn't get any better than Rivera in the bullpen.

Weaknesses: There are several problems defensively with this team.  Jeter isn't a very good shortstop, and (presumably) he'll be an even lousier third baseman.  Giambi is a Pr-rated first baseman.  And Rasmus, Ethier and Bay are rated either Fr or Pr in the outfield.  With only Giambi (739 OPS vs. RH) and Chris Davis (618 vs. RH) rated at first base, neither option is palatable.  And the options behind the plate (Laird with a 567 overall OPS, and Varitek with only 123 PA's) are even worse.  The back end of the rotation is a bit weak, as is the bullpen beyond Rivera.

Outlook: Once again, Mississippi appears to be stuck in BDBL limbo, where they aren't quite good enough to contend, and aren't quite bad enough to throw in the towel.  As such, we're likely to see another year filled with puzzling arbitrage decisions.  This, coming on the heels of a puzzling winter, where Weiss traded his best hitter (and quite possibly the best hitter in the OL), Joey Votto, to a team in his own division, and then voluntarily took on Jeter's $9.5 million salary in 2012, so that Jeter could play out of position at third base for two seasons.  With the overwhelming amount of eccentricity in this division, it really should be named after Bill Lee or Mark Fidrych instead of poor Andy Benes.

Prediction: 3rd place, but that's just a guess.  As I wrote above, this is a three-team horse race that will be decided almost entirely upon head-to-head records.  Your guess is as good as mine as to who will ultimately win that race.

Las Vegas Flamingos

Owner: John Bochicchio
2010 Record: 61-99 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Bronson Arroyo, R.A. Dickey, Jason Vargas, Andy Pettitte, Bud Norris, Nick Blackburn
Bullpen: Grant Balfour, Manny Acosta, Kevin Gregg, Joe Beimel, Kameron Loe, Bill Bray, Brian Sweeney, Ryan Webb
Projected Lineup: Vernon Wells (CF), Nick Swisher (1B), Chase Utley (2B), Delmon Young (LF), Ramon Hernandez (C), Ryan Spillborghs/Darnell McDonald (RF), Chase Headley (3B), Orlando Cabrera (SS)

Strengths: Wells, Swisher, Utley and Young are a nice start to any lineup.  And Arroyo, Dickey, Vargas and Pettitte are a solid foursome in the starting rotation.

Weaknesses: There are some significant platoon split issues with some of the better players on this team, which can cause some problems for the Flamingoes this season.  For example, as great as Utley is, he posted an OPS of just 752 against righties.  Wells (643 vs. LH) and Headley (589 vs. LH) struggle against lefties.  And Cabrera's OPS against righties is just 601, with no viable platoon mate for him on the roster.  The team's closer, Balfour, also struggled a bit against lefties (771 OPS), as did the team's ace, Arroyo (786 vs. LH.) Pettitte (478/782 splits) and Vargas (550/747) also have issues.

Outlook: The Flamingoes finally rid themselves of the long-term contracts of Brad Penny, Rafael Betancourt and Travis Hafner, who cost them a total of $26.5 million last year.  And with his newfound riches, Johnny Bo locked up three more aging veterans (Swisher, Arroyo and Pettitte) to long-term contracts totaling $21.5 million this year, and $67.5 million over three years (assuming Pettitte returns.)  The Flamingoes aren't likely to contend this season, given the absence of dominant pitching, the platoon issues on offense, and the weakness in the bottom half of the lineup.  But if they choose to rebuild, they don't have much to offer unless they're willing to part with Utley (which Bochicchio has been unwilling to do in the past.)  In other words, it looks like another season of spinning wheels in Vegas.

Prediction: 4th place.

Los Altos Undertakers

Owner: Jeff Paulson
2010 Record: 113-47 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: C.C. Sabathia, Jon Lester, Clayton Richard, Brian Duensing, Tim Wakefield
Bullpen: Rafael Soriano, Mike Adams, Jonny Venters, Andrew Bailey, Heath Bell, Joel Zumaya, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri
Projected Lineup: Hanley Ramirez (SS), Jason Heyward (RF), Evan Longoria (3B), Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Magglio Ordonez/Josh Willingham (LF), Curtis Granderson/Mike Cameron (CF), Jose Molina/Mike Napoli (C), Brent Lillibridge/Joe Inglett (2B)

Strengths: A pair of left-handed aces at the top of the rotation, a bullpen filled with closers and a lineup filled with gold-gloved MVP candidates.  Usually, if a bullpen includes one pitcher with an opponents' OPS below 600, that is a tremendous asset.  This team has EIGHT.  I'm not even sure all eight can fit on the active roster.  It really is overkill, to be honest.  There's simply no good reason why any team needs eight closers.  Paulson should heed our president's advice and "spread the wealth."  And speaking of wealth, let's talk about the Los Altos infield.  Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria and Adrian Gonzalez all in the same infield?  Good god.  We should all be thankful to Peburn for out-bidding Paulson for the services of Robinson Cano this winter.

Weaknesses: Remember the days when Los Altos owned Sabathia, Lester, Matt Garza, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Leake, Brian Matusz, Jered Weaver and Adam Wainwright, and it seemed as though the Undertakers' reign of terror would NEVER end?  Well, the only two pitchers remaining from that group are Sabathia and Lester.  At least that's something.  The back end of this rotation is not exactly awe-inspiring.  But with this bullpen, it doesn't even matter who starts.  The Undertakers could simply start one of their eight closers, and then bring in a new closer every inning.  Hmm...maybe that is Paulson's strategy!

Outlook: The Undertakers have won 113 games in each of the past two seasons, and there's no reason to believe they won't equal that mark this season as well.  Whereas in recent years, Los Altos has featured the best starting rotation in the league, this season the Undertakers will be feared for their starting lineup -- and their bullpen, of course.  Some things never change.

Prediction: 1st place, and the OL championship.  Los Altos is head-and-shoulders above every other team in the Ozzie League.  Of course, the same was said of last year's team.  So for those teams lucky enough to face Los Altos in the post-season, remember to pray to the Gods of Random Dice Rolls.

San Antonio Broncs

Owner: Greg Newgard
2010 Record: 50-110 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Doug Fister, Brian Matusz, Mike Leake, Carl Pavano, Joe Blanton
Bullpen: Joaquin Benoit, Neftali Feliz, Matt Thornton, Craig Kimbrel, Clay Hensley, David Aardsma, Jason Frasor, Kenley Jansen, Ron Mahay, Henry Rodriguez
Projected Lineup: Omar Infante (SS), Jeff Keppinger (2B), Tyler Colvin/Adam Jones (CF), Brennan Boesch/Garrett Jones (RF), Ike Davis (1B), Conor Jackson/David Murphy (LF), Edwin Encarnacion/Danny Valencia (3B), Jason Kendall/Miguel Montero (C)

Strengths: Gee, you think the Broncs have enough closers?  I count SIX relievers with a sub-650 opponents OPS.  That's just obnoxious.  Speaking of obnoxious, let's talk about leadoff hitter Omar Infante.  Okay...let's not.

Weaknesses: The starting rotation lacks an ace, though it is filled with #3-type starters.  And when you have a bullpen like this, lacking an ace isn't much of an issue.  (See the 2010 Confederates.)  The starting lineup also lacks a true impact player, but is filled with decent-enough hitters.  Against either lefties or righties, San Antonio can field a lineup with six hitters with 800+ OPS'es.  So I'm not sure why I'm writing about this under the "weaknesses" section...

Outlook: Just a few months after losing 110 games, the Broncs appear poised to make another run at the post-season.  With very few competitive teams in the Ozzie League, the wild card race could boil down to which team sucks the least.  With their ridiculous bullpen and deep lineup, the Broncs are as safe a bet as any.

Prediction: 2nd place, and the OL wild card.  With four wild cards in this franchise's history, the Broncs are tied with the New Hope franchise in that category.  This season, we could see San Antonio set a new standard by which all other wild-card-chasing franchises will be measured.

Bear Country Jamboree

Owner: Matt Clemm
2010 Record: 60-100 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Hiroki Kuroda, Barry Zito, Dan Haren, Joe Saunders, John Lannan
Bullpen: John Axford, Ramon Ramirez, Sean Burnett, Chad Durbin, Javier Lopez, Pat Misch
Projected Lineup: Carl Crawford (LF), Johnny Damon (CF), Carlos Quentin (RF), Alex Rodriguez (3B), David Ortiz (1B), Miguel Tejada (SS), Alberto Callaspo (2B), Craig Tatum/Matt Treanor (C)

Strengths: The Bear Country outfield is very good -- so good, there's no room for Marcus Thames, who posted 806/896 splits last season.  Rodriguez is also good -- so good, Matt signed him for so long, we'll all be driving flying cars and taking weekend trips to the Moon by the time A-Rod's contract ends.  The Jamboree rotation is filled with mid-rotation starters, and the bullpen includes plenty of quality arms.

Weaknesses: Ortiz posted an OPS of just 599 against left-handers, and the only other first baseman on the roster (Willy Aybar) posted an OPS of just 696 vs. southpaws, so there is no viable platoon at first, unless someone plays out of position.  The catching platoon consists of Tatum (521/749 splits) and Treanor (408/677), who combined for fewer than 400 plate appearances.  And at second base, the Jamboree have no fewer than five players rated at the position, but none of them can hit lefties.  The highest OPS of the lot belongs to Aybar, at just 696.  Defensively, Ortiz is 280 pounds of problem, and Damon is just a mess in center field (although his girlish throwing arm is somehow rated "Fr").

Outlook: The Jamboree certainly won't lose 100 games again this year.  That's the good news.  The bad news is that they probably won't come within 40 wins of the Undertakers.  The worse news is that it doesn't look like the Undertakers dynasty will end any time soon.  But hey -- at least Jamboree fans will get to watch A-Rod man the hot corner through the end of the decade.  So that's something.

Prediction: 3rd place.  A-Rod will hit career homer #550 in a stadium filled with empty seats.

Sylmar Padawans

Owner: John Duel
2010 Record: 72-88 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Jonathan Sanchez, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Garland, Madison Bumgarner, Ben Sheets
Bullpen: Brian Wilson, Kyle McClellan, Jesse Crain, Matt Albers, Josh Tomlin, Joe Smith
Projected Lineup: Neil Walker (2B), Ryan Sweeney/Emilio Bonifacio (LF), Hunter Pence (RF), Juan Uribe (3B), Michael Cuddyer (1B), Mitch Maier (CF), Francisco Cervelli (C), Elvis Andrus (SS)

Strengths: Sometimes it's difficult finding a team's strengths.  This is one of those times.  Sylmar's pitching staff isn't terrible.  There, that wasn't so hard.

Weaknesses: Cuddyer owns an 875 OPS against lefties, and Bobby Wilson's OPS vs. lefties is a robust 947 (a .280 OBP and .667 slugging, in just 24 at-bats.)  Aside from those two, no Padawans hitter owns an 850+ OPS against lefties OR righties.  The situation against righties is depressing: two hitters with an OPS between 810-813, and Pence with the next-best OPS at 776.  If you sum up all of the hitters on the Padawans' 35-man roster, they own a combined OPS against righties of just 699.  On the mound, Sylmar's starting rotation is populated by #3/#4 starters, but the problem is that they all pitch in pitcher's ballparks in MLB, so their BDBL numbers are likely to suffer in translation.

Outlook: It's difficult to imagine a scenario where the Padawans finish with more than the 72 wins they had last year.  Remarkably, those 72 wins were good enough for second place in a very weak division a year ago.  Had the Padawans played in any other division in the BDBL, they wouldn't have come close to 72 wins.  But with the Broncs and Jamboree each making improvements this past year, it would be a major accomplishment if Sylmar finishes above last place this year.

Prediction: 4th place.  I predicted 100-loss seasons for the Padawans in both 2008 and 2009, and last year predicted they would lose "close" to 100 games.  And in those three seasons, the Pads lost 87, 88 and 88 games.  (At least they're consistent!)  I've taken some abuse from Duel for being 12 games off of my predictions.  Fair enough -- this isn't an exact science.  My prediction this year is that the Padawans will be as awful as they have been over the past three years, and I feel pretty confident that that prediction will hold up.