March, 2011
2011 BDBL
Farm Report
It's
that time of year again: time for those of us with great farm clubs to
annoy Brian Potrafka by bragging about them, and time for those with
poor farms to point out how meaningless this report is. This year, our
panel of experts includes just three: Baseball America, Baseball
Prospectus (Kevin Goldstein) and Baseball HQ (Rob Gordon.) You all
know the drill: I
assign 100 points to the #1 prospect on each list, 99 points to the #2
prospect, etc.. I then tally up all the points to arrive at the
table below:
|
Total Pts |
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
2000 |
Avg Rank |
STL |
1,419 |
1 |
24 |
8 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
19 |
10 |
23 |
17 |
12 |
19 |
13.2 |
ALN |
1,234 |
2 |
3 |
13 |
16 |
6 |
13 |
4 |
16 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
18 |
9.7 |
SCS |
1,173 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
12 |
5 |
9 |
13 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
17 |
7.0 |
KAN |
953 |
4 |
22 |
23 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
11 |
16 |
11 |
4 |
9.8 |
SAB |
947 |
5 |
4 |
20 |
22 |
18 |
22 |
8 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
5 |
13 |
12.8 |
ATL |
918 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
10 |
21 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
20 |
24 |
12.3 |
AKR |
899 |
7 |
5 |
12 |
8 |
23 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
15 |
13 |
2 |
9 |
12.1 |
MIS |
866 |
8 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
7 |
8 |
15 |
10 |
9.5 |
CHI |
783 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
10 |
14 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
6.8 |
VIL |
781 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
18 |
18 |
8 |
10.1 |
SCA |
757 |
11 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
16 |
11 |
15 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
14 |
15 |
12.9 |
NMB |
695 |
12 |
14 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
23 |
22 |
15 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
11.2 |
BCJ |
555 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
23 |
9 |
3 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
21 |
15.3 |
NIA |
536 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
11 |
23 |
24 |
6 |
9 |
23 |
16.4 |
BUC |
535 |
15 |
13 |
16 |
21 |
20 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
6 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
15.7 |
CLE |
529 |
16 |
10 |
21 |
20 |
13 |
19 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
20 |
19.7 |
RAV |
453 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
22 |
24 |
23 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
13 |
5 |
17.9 |
GLS |
413 |
18 |
16 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
16 |
9 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
6 |
17.0 |
LAU |
365 |
19 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
19 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
6.5 |
SAL |
248 |
20 |
6 |
10 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
10 |
7 |
1 |
7.2 |
NYG |
42 |
21 |
21 |
7 |
13 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
11.7 |
LVF |
37 |
22 |
20 |
11 |
10 |
14 |
15 |
21 |
17 |
13 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
17.0 |
SYL |
27 |
23 |
23 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
13 |
20 |
4 |
22 |
19 |
14 |
17.4 |
COR |
21 |
24 |
18 |
22 |
11 |
24 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
11.0 |
#1 St. Louis Apostles
Ranked prospects: Mike Minor
(31), Kyle Gibson (32), Wilin Rosario (36), Miguel Sano (39), Devin
Mesoraco (45), Jose Iglesias (54), Chris Carter (61), Yonder Alonso
(65), Zack Cox (75), Wilmer Flores (86), Nick Weglarz (95), Luis Heredia
(106), Matt Davidson (130)
Unranked prospects: Alfredo Despaigne, Nick Williams, Trey
Williams, Mark Appel, Phillippe Aumont
Snow still blankets the ground here in
New England, yet Bobby Sylvester has already managed to make NINE trades
already this season. The sole purpose of all that
wheeling-and-dealing appears to be to ensure that the Apostles
will rank highly in this report. Given the fact that the St. Louis
farm has gone from the worst in the league to the best in only one year,
I'd say mission accomplished!
With those nine trades, the Apostles added Mesoraco, Weglarz, Carter,
Sano, Aumont, Rosario, Alonso and Iglesias -- 8 of this team's 13 ranked
prospects. I'm not sure if 13 is the all-time BDBL record for
ranked prospects in the farm report, but it must be close. As none
of those 13 prospects are ranked among the top 30, it appears that the
strategy here is to opt for quantity over quality. Given that even
the best prospects fail at an alarming rate, maybe that's not such a bad
strategy. But is it a great strategy to trade away impact players
like Jamie Moyer, Alexei Ramirez, Raul Ibanez, Brian McCann and Santiago
Casilla in exchange for a bunch of "B" grade prospects, while managing a
team that many feel is good enough to contend for a playoff spot this
year? Who cares?! It's all about the arbitrage, baby!
#2 Allentown Ridgebacks
Ranked prospects: Mike Trout
(2), Jeremy Hellickson (7), Manny Machado (21), Randall Delgado (44),
Grant Green (49), Derek Norris (53)
Unranked prospects: Brad Emaus, Tyler Flowers, Jedd Gyorko, Max
Kepler, Ramon Morla, Marcell Ozuna, Josh Rodriguez, Cory Vaughn, Jake
Thompson
Given how much time, effort and expense
Bobby has put forth in his effort to claim the top spot in this ranking,
it is amazing how close this contest is, given that Allentown has yet to
trade for any prospects this season. Allentown graduated two top
10 prospects this past year (Mike Stanton and Carlos Santana) and
replaced them with two others. Trout was famously acquired
from the Atlanta Fire Ants last Thanksgiving in an eight-player deal
that included Justin Morneau, Jayson Werth, Ian Kinsler and a bunch of
salary dumped by Atlanta. That makes Trout a very expensive
acquisition for this season, given the amount of talent Allentown could
have acquired for that package of players and salary. But
according to our expert panel, he will be worth that expense at some
point down the road. By 2013, Allentown could be sporting an
outfield of Trout, Stanton and Bruce -- three prospects that each ranked
among the top three in baseball in recent years. And Hellickson is
poised to join Roy Oswalt, Felix Hernandez and Tim Lincecum in the long
tradition of great pitching developed through the Allentown farm club.
Four trophies, the #2 farm system in the league and the undying love and
adoration of the Baseball Gods. It's good to be Tom DiStefano.
#3 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Aroldis
Chapman (5), Freddie Freeman (16), Manny Banuelos (28), Brody Colvin
(49), Jordan Lyles (56), Jenrry Mejia (62), Anthony Rizzo (85)
Unranked prospects: Jeremy Baltz, Adrian Cardenas, Logan
Forsythe, Greg Halman, Reese Havens, Cedric Hunter, Ryan Lavarnway, Alex
Liddi, Anthony Rendon, Alex Torres, Taijuan Walker
The Sea Cats rank #3 in this survey,
despite the fact that arguably their best prospect, Rendon, is still
hammering away in college. Chapman was the #1 overall pick in the
2010 farm draft, and Rizzo was a very nice pickup in round four of that
draft. Last year, I traded Banuelos (and Troy Glaus) for Jarrod
Washburn -- who I was then forced to trade away just hours later after
the Greinke trade put me over the cap. Had I not dealt him,
Banuelos would be my #1 prospect. But this isn't about me.
It's about the Sea Cats and their four -- count 'em -- prospects ranked
among the top 50 in baseball. Quietly as can be, the Sea Cats'
farm has now ranked among the top three in the BDBL three years in a
row. And don't look now, but they've also managed to leap past
Salem with the third-best average farm ranking in this survey. But
again, it's not about me.
#4 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Mike
Moustakas (8), John Lamb (22), Nick Franklin (33), Drew Pomeranz (51),
Christian Colon (84), Aaron Crow (99), Yasmani Grandal (112), Christian
Yelich (120), A.J. Cole (123)
Unranked prospects: Cheslor Cuthbert, Archie Bradley, Dylan
Bundy, Tim Melville, Daniel Norris
Nine ranked prospects, and four of them
are K.C. Royals. Go figure. It's very impressive that the
Law Dogs were able to snag a top-40 prospect out of that garbage dump we
called a farm draft pool this past winter. Five teams passed on
Franklin to make that miracle happen. There was a bit of
difference in opinion on Franklin from our panel of experts, as he was
ranked as high as #18 (HQ) and as low as #44 (BP). The opinion was
equally as diverse for Lamb, who was ranked #11 by BP and #42 by HQ.
But opinions were much more consistent with Moustakas, who is the
highest-ranked Kansas prospect since Brandon Wood. (Let's just
hope for Luhning's sake that Moustakas doesn't follow in Wood's
footsteps.) Now that former third-base-franchise-player-for-life
David Wright is gone, Moustakas appears poised to fill that position for
the next decade (or until the next third-base-franchise-player-for-life
appears on the Kansas farm.)
#5 San Antonio Broncs
Ranked prospects: Michael
Pineda (17), Brandon Belt (19), Aaron Hicks (52), Tanner Scheppers (64),
Danny Espinosa (69), Craig Kimbrel (76), Kenley Jansen (98), Guillermo
Pimentel (125)
Unranked prospects: Paul Goldschmidt, Jared Mitchell, Kirk
Nieuwenhuis, Chris Owings, Jake Skole, Oscar Tejeda, Blake Beavan, Cam
Bedrosian, Jesse Biddle, Tyrell Jenkins, Scott Richmond
The Broncs graduated two top-10
prospects this past year (Neftali Feliz and Brian Matusz), yet their
farm still ranks among the top five in the league, thanks in part to the
emergence of Pineda, who leapt from the unranked masses a year ago to
#17. Heading in the opposite direction over the same timeframe is
Hicks, who fell from #25 a year ago to #52 today. The prospect
evaluation business is very much a "what have you done for me lately?"
sort of enterprise, and yet Hicks fell in the ranking despite improving
his OPS from 735 to 829! Belt was the #1 pick in
this year's farm draft, and San Antonio's reward for closing out the
final chapter of last season with a 7-21 record. He is by far the
highest-ranked prospect to emerge from that draft so far (with Kansas'
Franklin a distant #2.) At $3 million in salary, Espinosa is
easily the most expensive prospect in this report.
#6 Atlanta Fire Ants
Ranked prospects: Bryce
Harper (1), Mike Montgomery (18), Zack Wheeler (63), Zach Lee (66),
Arodys Vizcaino (69), Jordan Walden (93), Cesar Puello (103), Aaron
Miller (118)
Unranked prospects: Tim Beckham, Starling Marte, Aderlin
Rodriguez, Jemile Weeks, Kaleb Cowart, Carlos Perez
For the second year in a row, the #1
prospect in baseball is someone who has yet to play a single inning of
professional ball in a game that actually counts in the standings.
I remember oh-so-fondly the winter of 2009, when -- just a few weeks
before our farm draft was held -- I read an article about a 15-year-old
high school sophomore who was setting the world on fire. I quickly
e-mailed Gene Patterson and asked what it would take to get his #1
overall pick that year. He explained that he had no plans for that
pick, but was reluctant to trade it to me. I offered to trade him
one of my better farm players (I don't recall who) in exchange for that
pick, but he still wouldn't bite. He then said, "Boy, the guy you
want must be pretty good." I told him I thought he was, but he's a
total crapshoot (which is true of any 15-year-old.) Convinced that
Gene wouldn't trade his pick, I then offered to tell Gene who to take
with that pick if he would trade me one of his scrub relievers.
Instead, Gene went to Tom, and the two of them did a little digging.
And that's how the Fire Ants ended up with the #1 prospect in baseball.
True story.
#7 Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Domonic
Brown (4), Dustin Ackley (12), Danny Duffy (57), Tyler Chatwood (73),
Nick Castellanos (77), Travis d'Arnaud (81)
Unranked prospects: James Darnell, Jason Esposito, Travis
Harrison, Levi Michael, Kolten Wong, Jack Armstrong, Trevor Bauer, Dylan
Covey, Matthew Purke, Chance Ruffin
Last year, Tommy Hanson went from the
#1 prospect on this team to the #1 pitcher on the Akron staff.
(Okay, maybe #2 behind Verlander.) Were it not for his recent
injury, Brown might have had a chance to make a similar move, becoming
one of Akron's better hitters in 2012. Both he and Ackley will
graduate to the big club this year, leaving Duffy as the team's top
prospect. But with so many top amateur players on this farm club,
the next wave of Akron prospects is right behind this group. The
best of that lot may be Purke, the Baseball America Freshman of the Year
last year, who whiffed 142 batters in just 116+ innings while going a
perfect 16-0 on the season. He's already off to a stellar start to
2011, sporting a 5/24 BB/K rate after four starts. With a resume
that includes Purke, Hanson, Verlander, Mark Mulder, Mark Prior, Jeff
Weaver, Cliff Lee and Rich Harden, D.J. Shepard is practically the Dave
Duncan of the BDBL.
#8 Mississippi Meatballs
Ranked prospects: Chris Sale
(24), Tyler Matzek (26), Alex White (41), Trey McNutt (58), Jake McGee
(71), Trevor May (86), Christian Friedrich (114), Jaff Decker (127),
Drake Britton (127)
Unranked prospects: Peter Hissey, Rex Brothers, Cameron Coffey,
Adys Portillo, Anthony Swarzak
The arbitrage kings once again eke into
the top ten, thanks in part to the off-season trade with their favorite
trading partners, the St. Louis Apostles, which brought Matsek to
Mississippi (along with J.D. Drew) in exchange for Joba Chamberlain,
Mike Pelfrey and Matt Davidson. GM Nic Weiss went all out to add
McNutt to his farm system this past chapter, sacrificing Andre Ethier
and Miguel Sano. Despite his gaudy stats last year (2.48 ERA in
116+ IP, 93 H, 5 HR, 37 BB, 132 K), McNutt didn't crack the top 40 on
any of our experts' lists, topping out at #48 by BA. (Get it?
McNutt...crack?) A relief prospect like Sale cracking the top 25
is a bit of a rarity. The last time a reliever was this
franchise's top prospect was when Ryan Wagner ranked #30 overall back in
2004. For Nic's sake, let's hope Sale has a better career.
#9 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Jesus
Montero (3), Jarrod Parker (30), Tony Sanchez (59), Jean Segura (60),
Ian Krol (113)
Unranked prospects: Reymond Fuentes, Anthony Gose, Matt Lipka,
Kyle Skipworth, Kolbrin Vitek, Ryan Westmoreland, Nick Barnese, Casey
Crosby, Ethan Martin, Anthony Ranaudo
How impressive is this Chicago farm
system? Year after year after year, John Gill manages to assemble
a top-notch farm club. We're now looking at NINE top-ten rankings
in a dozen years. That is incredibly impressive, given the
turnover rate of the average farm system in this league. Almost
40% of Chicago's total points this year come from one player: Montero.
You may remember that he was the centerpiece in that trade last winter
with the St. Louis Apostles, in which GM John Gill parted with Evan
Longoria. Given that Longoria was already an established young
superstar with a $100K salary and no contract at the time of that trade,
Montero will have to be at least as impressive in order to justify that
deal. (Note: Chicago also received Westmoreland and Josh Bell in
that deal.) That's a tall order for ANY prospect.
#10 Villanova Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Eric
Hosmer (8), Martin Perez (24), Jarred Cosart (71), Jason Knapp (79),
J.P. Arencibia (80), Matt Dominguez (91), Brent Morel (110)
Unranked prospects: Brett Eibner, Michael Taylor, Josh Vitters,
Levon Washington, Chad Bettis, Robbie Erlin, Kyle Heckathorne, Trevor
Reckling, Peter Tago
Once upon a time, the Mustangs owned
the BDBL Farm Report. After a three-year hiatus, Villanova is back
among the top ten. They couldn't have done it without the help of
Hosmer, who came to the club in the infamous Zack Greinke/BDBL Weekend
trade of 2010. All Hosmer did last year was hit .338/.406/.571 at
two levels (High-A and Double-A), with 43 doubles, 9 triples and 20
homers, and a 59/66 BB/K ratio, and 14 stolen bases in 16 attempts --
all at the age of 20. And to think, some people actually bitched
that Chamra
didn't get enough in return in that Greinke deal. The Villanova
farm is also occupied by not one, but TWO players who will be full-time
starting third basemen for their MLB teams this year: Dominguez and
Morel. And just in case that isn't enough depth, the Mustangs also
have former first rounder Vitters hanging out on the farm, with his nose
pressed up against the window, just waiting for a chance to play.
#11 Southern Cal Slyme
Ranked prospects: Jacob
Turner (20), Billy Hamilton (43), Casey Kelly (45), Dee Gordon (47),
Jake Odorizzi (88), Delino Deshields (107), Deck McGuire (123)
Unranked prospects: Engel Beltre, Kyle Russell, George Springer,
David Bromberg, Yu Darvish, Mike Foltynewicz, Taylor Jungmann, Stolmy
Pimentel
Given the success of this franchise in
recent years, it's hard to believe this is the highest ranking this farm
system has had since 2006. Hell, back in 2006, this team's top
prospect was just 14 years old, Odorizzi was a teammate of Sylvester's
son, Bobby, and Deshields was a student at Gene Patterson's school.
If you play this game long enough, it will make you feel pretty old.
I can only imagine how old Bob must feel. Hamilton is ranked as
the 43rd best prospect in the game, yet he wasn't selected until the
21st pick of this winter's draft. Either we were all asleep at the
wheel, or our panel of experts are way off the mark.
#12 New Milford Blazers
Ranked prospects: Jameson
Taillon (10), Matt Moore (11), Josh Sale (67), Chris Dwyer (78), Jerry
Sands (130)
Unranked prospects: Jeff Bianchi, Robinson Chirinos, Johnny
Giavotella, Elliot Johnson, Deven Marrero, Esteilon Peguero, Drew
Vettleson, Bryan Morris, Enny Romero, Zach Stewart
This past winter's decision by Greg
Newgard to trade Taillon in exchange for some salary cap space is the
type of decision that causes a person to kick himself in the ass -- hard
-- for a number of years afterward. Trust me, I know.
Taillon was ranked #19 by HQ, #11 by BA, and #8 by BP. He is the
highest ranked Blazers pitching prospect since Clayton Asswipe.
And according to Baseball Prospectus, New Milford owns two of the top
ten prospects in baseball, with Moore being the other. BP also
ranked Sale incredibly highly, at #19, while he ranked just #88 on the
Baseball America list, and wasn't listed at all in HQ's top 100.
Of course, Taillon has yet to throw a professional pitch, so let's not
get too excited.
#13 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Desmond
Jennings (14), Chris Archer (41), Stetson Allie (74), Matt Harvey (97),
Garrett Richards (107), Hak-Ju Lee (118), Wilson Ramos (125)
Unranked prospects: Oswaldo Arcia, Chun-Hsiu Chen, Chris Marrero,
Carlos Triunfel, Jose Casilla, Cole Kimball, Matt Packer, Eduardo
Sanchez, Junichi Tazawa, Karsten Whitson
Jennings leapt all the way from #61 to
#5 a year ago, but has now fallen to #14 after hitting just
.278/.362/.393 in Triple-A last season. He still projects to be a
Lofton-like force on the base paths, but questions have now been raised
about his bat. He is still considered to be a top ten prospect by
HQ (#9 overall.) The team's newest acquisition, Archer, was ranked
as high as #27 (BA), and as low as #70 (BP.) And Allie was ranked
in the top 40 by BP, but didn't even make HQ's top 100. When there
is this much difference of opinion about a group of prospects, that
usually implies that they are talented, but have issues of one kind or
another. With Jennings, it's his bat. With Archer, it's his
control (his BB/9 rate was 5.01 at Double-A last season.) And with
Allie, it's his inexperience (as he has yet to throw a professional
pitch.) It's interesting to note that three of Bear Country's
ranked prospects (Marrero, Triunfel and Tazawa) are highly-talented
former top-50 prospects who fell out of the ranking completely because
of flaws in their games. It goes to show how inexact this science
can be.
#14 Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Shelby
Miller (14), Jonathan Singleton (38), Jurickson Profar (68), Alex Colome
(110), Joe Benson (132)
Unranked prospects: Josh Bell, Slade Heathcott, Jiwan James,
Domingo Santana, Jason Adam, Michael Inoa, Jay Jackson, Carlos Martinez,
Jose Ramirez, Chris Withrow
Mike Ranney's predecessor was famous
for loading up his farm roster with Japanese guys, so it's somewhat
amusing to see the new guy loading up his farm with Latin American
teenagers. The only one that is ranked (so far) is Profar, who was
ranked by all three experts despite hitting just .250/.323/.373 in his
pro debut last year. Since he just turned 18 a couple weeks ago, I
guess we'll cut him some slack. Miller also has just one year of
pro experience so far, but it was incredibly impressive. In 104+
innings, he whiffed 140 batters (an average of more than 12 per nine!),
while walking just 33. Singleton is an interesting prospect as
well. He now has minor league at-bats under his belt (almost one
full season), and owns a career rate of .290/.394/.471, with 34 doubles,
16 homers and an impressive 80/87 BB/K rate.
#15 Buckingham Badgers
Ranked prospects: Brett
Jackson (29), Dellin Betancees (40), Simon Castro (55), Andrew Brackman
(95), Mark Rogers (120), Austin Romine (129)
Unranked prospects: Matt Carpenter, Jonathan Schoop, Marquez
Smith, Eric Sogard, Donovan Tate, Eric Thames, Clayton Cook, Chad
Jenkins, Graham Stoneburner, Pat Venditte, Adam Warren
With Betances and Brackman, the Badgers
own two-thirds of the Yankees' "Killer B's" trio. Unfortunately,
they're missing the best of the bunch, Manny Banuelos. Betances
dominated the FSL last year (71 IP, 43 H, 1 HR, 19 BB, 88 K, 1.77 ERA),
while Brackman posted a stellar 9/56 BB/K ratio in 60 innings for the
same team (despite a 5.10 ERA.) If Buckingham holds onto both of
them, there's a good chance we could see them in the Badgers' rotation
by 2013. Jackson has decent speed (14 triples and 30 SB's at two
levels last year), and controls the strike zone well enough (73 BB, 126
K) that he should make an impact on the Buckingham roster eventually, as
a Shane Victorino type of player.
#16 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Kyle
Drabek (23), Lonnie Chisenhall (25), Ben Revere (82), Trayvon Robinson
(103)
Unranked prospects: Leslie Anderson, Adeiny Hechevarria, Matt
Barnes, Dan Schlereth, Jess Todd, Zach Von Rosenberg, Carl Webster
After finishing among the bottom five
in this survey nine times in ten years, the Rocks finally posted a top
ten showing last year. Yet, even though Drabek's ranking remains
virtually the same (#23 this year vs. #20 a year ago), and Chisenhall
(#49 a year ago) climbed the ladder a bit, the Rocks have plunged back
down to #16, where Mike Stein feels more comfortable. Last year, I
pointed out that Cleveland's prospects (such as Brandon Webb, Chase
Utley, Russ Martin and Dan Uggla) have not fared very well in this
survey because they turned out to be much better big leaguers than they
were minor leaguers. It's impossible to imagine guys like
Robinson, Anderson, Hechevarria, Barnes, Webster and Von Rosenberg
following in those footsteps, but strange things seem to happen often in
Cleveland.
#17 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Wil Myers
(13), Jason Kipnis (34), Rubby de la Rosa (114)
Unranked prospects: Jackie Bradley, Jr., Ivan DeJesus, Todd
Frazier, L.J. Hoes, Wei-Yin Chen, Liam Hendricks, Hector Noesi, Rudy
Owens, Eric Surkamp
It always annoys me when teams take a
perfectly good catching prospect and move him to some other position.
To me, the benefit of having a catcher who hits well above average far
outweighs the risk of that player hurting himself while he's still under
team control. But that never seems to stop teams like Kansas City
(with Myers) and Washington (with Bryce Harper) from doing just that.
Over two levels last year, Myers hit .315/.429/.506, with 37 doubles, 14
homers and a BB/K ratio of 85/94. Those are impressive numbers
regardless of position...but would be SO much more impressive if coming
from a catcher. How highly regarded is Myers? Believe it or
not he is the highest-ranked prospect the Ravenswood farm has owned
since...brace yourselves...Vernon Wells...way back in 1999.
#18 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Zach
Britton (27), Brett Lawrie (37), Jeremy Jeffress (102)
Unranked prospects: Jordan Danks, Daryl Jones, D.J. LeMahieu,
Christian Lopes, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, A.J. Pollock, Jordan Schafer,
Neftali Soto, Chris Carpenter, Tyler Robertson, Alex Wimmers
For the sixth time in this 12-year
study, the Sphinx farm ranks among the bottom seven. I actually
like the unranked prospects on this team better than the ranked.
Nishioka (the team's #1 pick in this year's farm draft) should
contribute something (although not likely much) immediately, which puts
him way ahead of 95% of the other players on this page. Pollock
has had a good spring, and could move quickly this year. And Lopes
is one of the top high school hitters in this year's class.
#19 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Julio
Teheran (6), Nolan Arenado (88), Fabio Martinez (101)
Unranked prospects: Bryce Brentz, Garin Cecchini, Kenny
Diekroeger, Daniel Descalso, Danny Hultzen, Osvaldo Martinez, Justin
O'Conner, Bubba Starling, Max Stassi, Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, Henry
Owens, Aaron Sanchez
Once the pride and joy of the BDBL, the
Los Altos farm system ranked among the top five for five years in a row,
from 2005 to 2009. But after a shocking 11th place standing in
last year's report, the Undertakers have now fallen all the way to #19.
God help us all. Teheran is the highest-ranked pitcher on the Los
Altos farm since Ben Sheets (#2) in 2001. In a year or two, he'll
make a fine one-two combo with Jon Lester. Don't get used to
seeing the Undertakers this low in the ranking, as several of the
players on that unranked list (most notably Cole, Gray and Starling)
will likely be highly ranked next year after they become first-round
picks this June. And thus, the Los Altos circle of life will be
complete.
#20 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Gary
Sanchez (35), Michael Choice (82)
Unranked prospects: Gary Brown, Kentrail Davis, Alex Dickerson,
Brian Goodwin, Mike Olt, Kyle Parker, Addison Russell, Scott Elbert,
Hisashi Iwakuma, Jhan Marinez, Asher Wojciechowski
Yes, it's true. After 11 straight
years of ranking among the top 10 in this study, these are indeed the
darkest of days for the Salem farm. After trading away Eric Hosmer
in the ill-fated Greinke trade at BDBL Weekend last year, and with the
graduation of Stephen Strasburg to the big club, the Salem farm is now
all but barren. The only two ranked prospects on the 'Tippers farm
have played a combined 77 games at the professional level. And
next year's ranking may not be any better, as there are no prospects on
the unranked list with a better than 50% chance of appearing on top-100
lists next spring. Basically, it will likely require a rebuilding
year for the Salem farm club to return to the top ten.
#21 New York Giants
Ranked prospects: Andy
Oliver (92)
Unranked prospects: Vicmal de la Cruz, Austin Hedges, Renato
Nunez, Ariel Ovando, Luis Sardinas, Eskarlin Vazquez, Tim Wheeler,
Everett Williams, Tim Alderson, Adonis Cardona, Tim Collins, Dan Cortes,
Lance McCullers, Alex Meyer
Give the Giants farm points for
consistency. They ranked #21 a year ago as well, and their only
ranked prospect, Oliver, was ranked #87 by all three experts on our
panel. What are the odds? Jim Doyle, infamous for his goofy
GM strategies, loaded up on 16-year-old Latin American prospects this
winter. I'm not sure what the point of that was, but I'm sure
it'll work just as well as all of Doyle's other strategies. Oddly
enough, the prospect most likely to make an impact on the Giants in the
near future is diminutive little Munchkin Tim Collins, who looks like
he'll make Kansas City's roster on Opening Day. He's nothing more
than a short-usage bullpen lefty, but hey, it's something.
#22 Las Vegas Flamingoes
Ranked prospects: Tyler
Skaggs (93)
Unranked prospects: Bryan Anderson, David Cooper, Donnie Murphy,
Eduardo Nunez, J.R. Towles, Nick Hagadone, Bryan Henry, Josh Lindblom,
Jeff Locke, Lance Lynn, Michael Main, Matt Reynolds, Sammy Solis,
Brandon Workman
Johnny Bo selected Skaggs with the
fifth overall pick of this year's farm draft. For two different
Low-A teams in the Midwest League last year, the left-handed Skaggs
allowed 91 hits in 98+ innings, with 7 HR, 25 BB and 102 K. There
isn't much to say about him beyond that. Nor is there much to say
about any of Vegas' unranked prospects. So I guess I'll just move
on.
#23 Sylmar Padawans
Ranked prospects: Lars
Anderson (100)
Unranked prospects: Isaac Galloway, Reggie Golden, Miguel
Gonzalez, Wes Hodges, Jake Marisnick, Hunter Morris, Connor Narron,
Carlos Perez, Eury Perez, B.A. Vollmuth, Tanner Bushue, Juan Nicasio, Chaz Roe
I didn't need to do much to change that
list of prospects above. In fact, all I did was changed Anderson's
ranking from #121 to #100, removed Jose Iglesias from the ranked
prospects and added B.A. Vollmuth to the unranked list. I didn't
even change the ranking, as this team ranked #23 a year ago as well.
None of the players who were unranked last year improved enough to
appear on any of our experts' lists this year. In other words,
Sylmar did nothing but kick the can down the road.
#24 Corona Confederates
Ranked prospects: Hank
Conger (105)
Unranked prospects: Charlie Blackmon, Bobby Borchering, Yordy
Cabrera, Zack Cozart, Anthony Hewitt, Jiovanni Mier, Rougned Odor, Mark
Trumbo, Chad James, Joe Savery, John Stilson, Jason Stoffel
This makes two last-place finishes in
this survey in the past five years (plus one #22 ranking.) It's
hard to believe this team's one and only ranked prospect is Hank Conger.
There really isn't much to talk about on the unranked list, either.
This is just a sad state of affairs. But as the St. Louis Apostles
have shown, it isn't impossible to go from worst to first in only one
year.
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