August, 2012

Chapter Four Recap

Players of the Chapter

Wilson and Kershaw.  Kershaw and Wilson.  These two interchangeable aces in the New Milford rotation have been dominating the league all season.  This chapter, it was Wilson's turn to win the award for Pitcher of the Chapter.  He posted a 4-0 record, with a 0.44 ERA, struck out 43, and held opponents to a .170/.240/.213 triple-slash line.  He will undoubtedly win the OL Cy Young award, and you idiots let Peburn have him for $8 million this winter.  Great job.

On the Eck League side, Justin Verlander has dominated the POC award throughout the season, but this month it goes to his Akron teammate, Johnny Cueto.  Cueto went 4-0 on the chapter, with a 1.01 ERA, and held opponents to a .188/.243/.271 line.

It was all New Milford on the offensive side of the ball as well.  Adrian Gonzalez, New Milford's right fielder (yes, right fielder), hit a swell .433/.500/.639 on the chapter, with 21 ribbies.  Good for him.

And finally, in that other league, Chicago's newest slugger, Matt Kemp, fit right into his new uniform.  He hit .410/.454/.730 for the chapter, hit 9 homers and knocked in 27 runs.  It was fun while it lasted, Matt, but we both knew it wouldn't last forever.

Top Ten Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Doyle Does It Again

There is a fine line between heroism and delusion; between Rocky Balboa and Don Quixote.  The difference, I think, is in the goal the hero sets, and the reasonable expectation that that goal might possibly be met.  In the case of Mr. Balboa, he set his goal pretty low.  He was never so delusional to believe a lowly club fighter could defeat the heavyweight champion of the world, so he simply wanted to go the distance.  And we all rallied behind him as he worked toward that more reasonable goal.

Mr. Quixote, on the other hand, was completely delusional, and set goals that had no relationship to reality.  We feel sorry for this "hero", because he sets out on a quest we all know he can never fulfill.  And we feel both pity and amusement as we learn of his ordeals en route to what we all recognize will be his ultimate disappointment.

New York Giants GM Jim Doyle has embarked upon a journey that will ultimately become either Rockonian or Quixotic in nature.  In the best-case scenario, Doyle's New York Giants will become the OL wild card winners.  After TWELVE straight seasons of failure under Doyle's watch, the Giants will not only finish with a winning record for the first time in that span, but will also earn a spot in the BDBL post-season, where history has proven that ANYTHING -- including a Giants BDBL championship -- can happen.

In the worst-case scenario, Doyle's Giants will continue to flounder in the standings, finish below .500 for the 13th year in a row, and because Doyle has just traded several good players with future value, the Giants will continue to finish below .500 for several years to come.

The acquisitions of Adrian Beltre, Ted Lilly and Matt Garza will certainly improve the Giants' performance over the final two chapters, but is it too little, too late?  Believe it or not, Doyle has been using ALFONSO SORIANO as his primary third baseman all season.  As Soriano is hitting just .214/.252/.393 on the season, Beltre will be a big step up.  However, Beltre also has some usage issues, and will have to be rested at least 13 games over the final two chapters.

The Giants' top hitter (and OL MVP candidate) Mike Napoli also has major usage issues, and will require at least 28 games (an entire chapter) of rest the remainder of this season.  Without those two in the lineup, New York's offense consists of Billy Butler and...well...nothing.  In fact, if you remove Napoli from the New York offense, the team is hitting just .232/.295/.336.  You would need to add at least three Adrian Beltres to make this an average offense.

Lilly and Garza will presumably replace Ricky Nolasco and Brad Penny in the New York rotation.  Although Penny (6-5, 5.16 ERA in 82 IP) was a bit of a disaster, Nolasco (5-8, 4.09 ERA in 123+ IP) was actually pretty decent.  So unless Lilly or Garza post an ERA well below 4.09 in their two chapters with the Giants, at least one of them is a wash.

So, what we're left with is a Giants team that is 8 games below .500, with 28 games of usage left in Mike Napoli, 43 games of usage left in Adrian Beltre, and with one ace pitcher added to the rotation.  Even if the Giants play 8 games better over their final two chapters than they did in the previous four, that means they are a .500 team.  In a best-case, pie-in-the-sky scenario, let's say the Giants played .550 baseball over the final two chapters.  That would give them a final record of 79-81 -- which would be the 13th year in a row that Doyle has finished below .500.

Now, if Doyle had simply set his goal at reaching .500, we might cheer for him as we cheered for Rocky Balboa's reasonable goal of simply going the distance against the champ.  But instead, Doyle has set the lofty goal of unseating the Cowtippers from the OL wild card spot and making it to the playoffs.  The problem with that goal is that the Cowtippers don't currently own the top spot in the wild card race.  In fact, to reach the wild card, the Giants have to climb over FIVE other teams!  And a few of those teams have added players to their own rosters to improve over the final two chapters, making that task even more difficult.

Let's face it, friends: Jim Doyle is the BDBL's Don Quixote.

Story #2: Sylvester Bails Again

If Jim Doyle is the league's Don Quixote, then Bob Sylvester is the league's Rocky Balboa...if Rocky had quit the night before the big fight against Apollo Creed, sent Adrian back to Pauly's, got his old job back from Gazzo breaking thumbs, and went back to fighting Spider Rico in the church basement.

Of course, this isn't the first time a contending team quit fighting mid-season and threw away a chance at the playoffs by trading away all their best players for future considerations.  It isn't even the first time that Sylvester has done this.  But every time it happens, we can't help but question why we play this game in the first place.  If the object of the game is to make it to the playoffs, why on earth would anyone bail out on a first place team?

The counter-argument is that despite their .567 winning percentage and first place status, the Slyme would have had a difficult time winning their division, and faced nearly impossible odds in the playoffs.  So the "smart" move was to write off the 2012 season as a loss and do whatever is necessary to compete next year.

The problem with that counter-argument is that "next year" never seems to come.  If the Slyme should find themselves sitting in first place again at this time next year, we know Bob wouldn't hesitate to wave the white flag once again if he feels his team can't win it all.  And even in those years where he has felt his team could win it all, Southern Cal was upset in the playoffs.  In 2008, for example, the Slyme won more games (116) than any team in league history, but were SWEPT in the first round of the playoffs by the #4 seed.  In 2010, SoCal won 103 games, but lost to the wild card team in the Division Series.  So even when Bob "goes for it", the end result is disappointment.

So why not go for it?  Why not continue to fight and hope for some good fortune in the Tournament of Randomness?  It's not as if the 2013 Slyme were boosted tremendously by the trades made this chapter.  They saved some cash, acquired a cheap ace in Jarrod Parker, and maybe a cheap middle reliever or two.  It seems incredibly unsatisfying to throw away a chance at the post-season for that.

Story #3: Salem Stumbles

Heading into last chapter, the Salem Cowtippers owned a 53-51 record, and sat somewhat comfortably in first place in the OL wild card race by two games.  With a Chapter Four schedule that included only one series against an opponent with a .500 or better record, my plan was to win 17 games or so and give myself enough of a cushion in that race to force my competitors to withdraw.  The second step of this masterful plan was to then acquire Carlos Lee from the Infidels and Adrian Beltre from the Niagara Locks.  That would give me three batters with a 1000+ OPS against left-handers, which would trigger a nightmarish playoffs scenario for the New Milford Blazers and their all-lefty starting rotation.

It was a perfect plan.  The only problem proved to be executing that plan.  Instead of winning 17 games, the 'Tippers LOST 17 games.  Instead of creating a huge cushion in the wild card race, Salem is now trailing the Corona Confederates AND Ravenswood Infidels in that race.  Instead of trading Lee to me, Ravenswood GM Brian Potrafka is now fully energized and optimistic that he will use Lee himself to battle the Blazers in the playoffs.  Instead of trading Beltre to me, Niagara GM Mike Ranney dealt Beltre to the New York Giants, whose delusional GM Don Quixote suddenly believes he can win the wild card thanks to my team's collapse.

How on earth did this collapse happen?  How does a team go from two games above .500 in the first 80 games of the season to 7-17 over the next 24?  One word: pitching.  The Cowtippers posted a 3.73 ERA in the first half of the season, yet inexplicably the entire pitching staff collapsed in Chapter Four, posting an ERA of 6.40.  Some of the "highlights" included:

• Sean Marshall: 4.66 ERA, 9.2 IP, 11 H, 7 BB
• Matt Belisle: 5.84 ERA, 12.1 IP, 15 H
• Wandy Rodriguez: 6.68 ERA, 5 starts, 32+ IP, 39 H, 7 HR
• Paul Maholm: 6.82 ERA, 5 starts, 30+ IP, 44 H, 14 BB
• Colby Lewis: 7.41 ERA, 6 starts, 34 IP, 40 H, 13 BB, 8 HR
• James Shields: 7.68 ERA, 6 starts, 36+ IP, 47 H, 10 BB, 10 HR
• Kameron Loe: 9.90 ERA, 10 IP, 19 H, 11 ER

It was a complete and utter collapse by EVERY pitcher on the Salem roster, with the lone exception of closer Rafael Betancourt, who posted a 2.20 ERA and managed to save three games.

In 13 years of playing this game, I have NEVER seen anything like this.  And I hope I never see it again.

Story #4: Kansas Prepping for the Post-Season

If you want to know why Bob Sylvester punted with his ball in the red zone, look no further than the Kansas Law Dogs.  The level of piling on displayed by the Superteams of the Eck League this season has been utterly ridiculous, to the point where several teams that resembled all-star teams before the season began have unnecessarily added several more all-stars to their squads in an effort to out-all-star the competition.

The Law Dogs were painted into a corner this season thanks to the all-star squad assembled by the four-time league champion in their division.  Although Kansas was talented enough to compete for a wild card heading into the season, GM Chris Luhning hasn't been complacent with merely competing.  Since the winter free agent draft ended, he has added Doug Fister, Mark Melancon, Eric Thames, Alex Presley, Miguel Montero, Chris Young, Heath Bell, Kevin Youkilis, Torii Hunter and Jorge de la Rosa.

Despite the predictions that Allentown would run away with the division title, they have performed seven games below their Pythagorean prediction.  As a result, their lead over Kansas in the Higuera Division is just three games at press time.  The Law Dogs own a .615 winning percentage, yet in this bizarre Year of the Superteam, that winning percentage is only good for a TIE for first in the EL wild card race.  As crazy as it sounds, the Law Dogs' best chance of making it to the post-season may be to win the division.

Story #5: EL Playoff Picture

There are four teams in the Eck League with a winning percentage above .600, and one of those teams will be watching from the sidelines in November.  This has only happened once before in BDBL history.  Way back in 2000, the Madison Fighting Mimes finished with a 98-62 (.613) record, yet failed to make the playoffs because: a) the Litchfield Lightning won the wild card with 102 wins, and b) the Stamford Zoots won the division in the final series of the season -- a head-to-head matchup against Madison that Stamford GM Paul Marazita insisted upon managing against Madison's MP.  True story.

The Series of the Year may very well be the four-game series between the Law Dogs and Black Sox, taking place in Kansas in Chapter Six.  The Law Dogs and Ridgebacks play EIGHT times over the next two chapters, so Kansas has the power to control their own destiny.  How delicious would it be if the Allentown Ridgebacks -- heavily favored to win their fifth BDBL trophy this season -- don't even make it to the playoffs?!?

Over in the Hrbek Division, the Akron Ryche and Chicago Black Sox also play eight times over the final two chapters.  Akron also owns a three-game lead in that division, so Chicago also controls their own destiny there.  And let's not forget that Chicago got off to a horrendous start this season at 8-20.  Since then, the Black Sox own an EIGHT-GAME lead over the Ryche.

Which leads me to my next item...

Story #6: DJ Makes a Trade

Believe me, when DJ Shepard makes a trade in the BDBL, it is MAJOR news.  In 13 years, Shepard has made maybe 13 trades.  So you know if he's making deals, there must be a good reason for it.  And with Chicago breathing down his neck in the division, and after Chicago GM John Gill added MVP bat Matt Kemp to his lineup last chapter, it was time for Shepard to dust off his trading cap and get to work.

In his first trade of the chapter, Shepard added ace Zack Greinke to his starting rotation at the expense of a catching prospect and a couple of relievers.  That catching prospect, Travis d'Arnaud, has had a typical Travis d'Arnaud season as a 23-year-old playing in the Pacific Coast League's best hitter's park.  Throughout his career he's shown decent power (16 HR this season in 279 AB), and little plate discipline (19 BB, 59 K this season.)  Although Greinke will be a free agent at the end of the season, he will undoubtedly represent a major step up from former #5 starter Jeff Francis (6-7, 5.43 ERA in 104+ IP.)

Shepard didn't stop there, however.  In his next deal, he added another solid starting pitcher in Hiroki Kuroda.  And the price for Kuroda was even cheaper than the price he paid for Greinke: catching prospect Bruce Maxwell.  Now, before this trade I had never heard of Bruce Maxwell, so I had to look him up.  Evidently, Maxwell was a 2nd round pick by the A's this past June...out of a Division III college.  According to Baseball America, Maxwell has a "surprising feel for hitting", "lacks athleticism" and "may wind up as a slugging first baseman."  So far in his professional career, he has managed a .283/.382/.368 triple slash line in the short-season New York Penn League.

With Greinke and Kuroda now joining Justin Verlander, Johnny Cueto and Tommy Hanson in the Akron rotation, the Ryche now own one of the best starting rotations in the league.  And with Chicago quickly gaining ground in the division, and a playoffs spot on the line, Akron will need every advantage they can get.

Story #7: Sylmar Loads Up

After adding Roy Halladay to the mix last chapter, you would think John Duel would have taken the rest of the year off.  Instead, he was back at it again this chapter, and added yet another ace to his rotation in Chris Carpenter.

One of the many fascinating things I've noticed about the BDBL over the years is that when a team doesn't have much to offer in trade, they can still find a trading partner who will simply take whatever is left to offer.  A great case in point is the Carpenter trade.  Sylmar doesn't have much of a farm system.  They ranked #21 out of 24 teams in this year's Farm Report, and not one of their prospects appeared in the top 90.  They also didn't have much to offer in terms of cheap, young players with upside -- the type of player non-contending teams usually go for.  Yet Duel has been able to add Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter to his starting rotation this season without having to part with ANY of those types of players that a non-contending team might deem as valuable.

The Slyme were able to add Halladay mostly by agreeing to take on a ton of salary in the form of Ryan Howard.  The players sacrificed in that deal by Sylmar (Peter Bourjos, Rafael Furcal and Juan Nicasio) have little value next year, and possibly beyond.  Yet, Sylmar not only added Halladay in that deal, but also Jake Westbrook, who was then flipped as the primary player involved in the Carpenter trade.

Along with Westbrook, Sylmar "sacrificed" Asher Wojciechowski, Mike Pelfrey, Casper Wells, Thomas Neal, Todd Coffey and Matt Albers.  Wojciechowski has had a decent year in Double-A for a 23-year-old, but is nothing special.  Pelfrey and Albers are done for the year, and have no value next season.  Wells (.244/.315/.399 in part-time duty) will likely be released at the end of the season.  And Neal is a 24-year-old #4 outfielder stuck in Double-A.

At the end of the day, Duel was able to add two extremely valuable starting pitchers to his roster without parting with any top prospects or any players with any redeemable value next season.  That is quite an accomplishment.

Story #8: OL Wild Card Gets Interesting

Thanks to the collapse of the Cowtippers (see Story #3), the Ozzie League wild card race (a.k.a. "The Race to Decide Who Gets to Lose to Peburn in the OLDS") has become interesting in the same way that a foot race between six contestants with broken legs might be considered interesting.

The Corona Confederates now lead the pack with a record of just 53-51.  The Confederates continue to pile up wins with their offense, which is comprised almost entirely of just two players: Albert Pujols and Joey Votto.  Remove those two from the lineup, and the rest of the team is hitting just .258/.309/.382.

The Ravenswood Infidels trail Corona by a game, and sport a .500 record.  In four chapters of play, the Infidels managed to top .500 just once (16-12 in Chapter One.)  Since then, they've gone just 36-40 (.474.)  But GM Brian Potrafka remains optimistic, and even picked up a few pieces (Nolan Reimold, Carlos Villanueva and Grant Balfour) in trade this chapter that might help get the Infidels over the hump.

The Cowtippers trail Ravenswood by a game, and are followed two games behind by both Los Altos and San Antonio.  The Undertakers weren't expected to compete this season, so their proximity to the wild card lead is a bit of a shock.  And San Antonio wasn't expected to compete after they threw in the towel in Chapter Two.  Yet they not only continue to hang around in the wild card race, but they currently sport the fourth best runs differential in the Ozzie League!  (+26)

And finally, FIVE games behind the leader, and sitting behind FIVE other teams in the wild card race, sit the New York Giants, whose delusional, Quixotic leader has decided he is so confident of his team's ability to overcome this massive deficit that he has risked his team's future in pursuit of this goal.  Best of luck with that.

Story #9: Worst Team of All Time

As was recently announced on the forum, the Granite State Lightning are now officially the Worst Team of All Time.  Regardless of their eventual won-loss record, and regardless of whether or not they will eventually break the 2008 Atlanta Fire Ants' record, the Lightning now own a greater runs differential (349, including 4 games in Chapter 5) than any team in history.  This (maybe temporarily) breaks the record of the 2010 San Antonio Broncs, who were outscored by 345 runs.  With two chapters remaining, the Lightning have a chance to SHATTER that record.

With a .269 winning percentage, Granite State is on pace to lose 117 games this season -- one away from Atlanta's record of 118.  Incredibly, the Lightning have actually scored more runs than one other team (Villanova) this season, but their pitching staff is historically atrocious.  Through the first four chapters, the Lightning allowed a whopping 700 runs to score -- that's 144 runs more than the next worst team in the league!

The record for most runs allowed by a BDBL team is 1,046, set by the Wapakoneta Hippos in 2004.  With 700 runs allowed after their first 104 games, Granite State is on pace to allow 1,077 runs this season.  They have lost NINE games this season by 10 or more runs, four more games by 9 runs, and five more by 8 runs.

The pitching staff owns an ERA of 6.46, which includes some pretty stunning performances: Edinson Volquez (11.40 ERA in 60 IP), Wade LeBlanc (8.55 ERA in 40 IP), Tommy Hunter (7.43 ERA in 46 IP), John Lackey (7.13 ERA in 106 IP), Brian Duensing (6.95 ERA in 88 IP) and Jaime Garcia (6.21 ERA in 100 IP.)

It has been a LONG year for Ryan, but give him credit where credit is due: he has managed each and every at-bat of each and every excruciating blowout -- and has done so without throwing or breaking anything.  That is a MAJOR accomplishment.

Story #10: Vacant Villanova

Matt Decrevel's final stats as a member of the BDBL: 73 days in the league, 15 posts on the forum, 6-18 record, 28 games played, 0 games managed, 1 trade.

In terms of the number of games played, Decrevel's tenure in the BDBL is tied with Ryan Melosi's for the shortest in league history.  However, there have been six other owners in league history (Tak Ikeda, Andy Lurie, Kevin Manley, John Miernicki, Chuck Mosca and Adam Musson) who didn't play a single game during their time in the league.

As someone who professed a burning desire to own a team in the BDBL for a long time, I had high expectations for Mr. Decrevel.  But it just didn't work out, and that happens.  And now it's time to move on.  I've reached out to the only person on our waiting list -- someone who expressed an interest in our league during the winter -- but I've yet to receive a response from him.  So there is a strong possibility the Villanova franchise could be vacant for a while.