February, 2012

2012 Season Preview

By now, you've all read all the hype.  The balance of power in the BDBL is tilted once again in favor of the Eck League.  They have all the pitching.  They have all the offense.  They have such an overabundance of talent that it doesn't even matter who wins the OL championship.  They have won six of the last seven BDBL championships, and number seven is a fait accompli.

Well...believe the hype. Out of the top 30 pitchers in baseball (as ranked by WAR), 22 are Eck Leaguers.  These 22 aces aren't really evenly-distributed, however: three are Ridgebacks, two are Rocks, two are Sphinx, three are Law Dogs, three are Locks, two are Slyme, three are Sea Cats, and three are Apostles.  So the vast wealth of starting pitching in baseball is concentrated in just eight Eck League teams.

The distribution of top hitters between the two leagues is a little more even.  Out of the top 30 (again, ranked by WAR), the Eck League owns 17 of them (vs. 13 for the OL.)  But again, the distribution by team is a little uneven: three of the top hitters in baseball are Ridgebacks, three are Black Sox, three are Confederates, two are Sphinx, four are Blazers, two are Cowtippers, two are Apostles, and two are Padawans.  So 21 of the top 30 hitters in baseball are concentrated within just eight BDBL teams.

A few of the teams in the Eck League have outstanding pitching, but mediocre-to-poor hitting.  Kansas, Villanova, St. Louis, Southern Cal, Niagara, Cleveland and Atlanta all fit this description -- that's more than half the league!  Then, there are the Chicago Black Sox, who have a tremendous offense, but little pitching.  And finally, there are the Ridgebacks, who dominate both offensively and defensively.

In the OL, there are the New Milford Blazers, and then there is everyone else.  The Blazers have enough pitching and offense to nail down a spot in the playoffs by August.  The Ravenswood Infidels appear to be heavy favorites to win their division.  So that leaves the Salem Cowtippers, Mississippi Meatballs, Slymar Padawans and San Antonio Broncs to battle it out for the last two spots in the playoffs.

But hey, this is just my opinion.  And I've been wrong before.

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Allentown Ridgebacks

Owner: Tom DiStefano
2011 Record: 55-105 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, Jeremy Hellickson, Dillon Gee, Phil Coke, Tom Gorzelanny
Bullpen: Greg Holland, Jonny Venters, Koji Uehara, Casey Janssen, Mike Gonzalez, Brad Ziegler
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury (CF), Ben Zobrist (2B), Ryan Braun (LF), Mike Stanton (RF), Todd Helton/Jesus Guzman (1B), Carlos Santana (C), Matt Downs/Jack Hannahan (3B), Elvis Andrus (SS)

Strengths: The Ridgebacks' bench is better than some starting lineups in this league.  Jay Bruce (804/818 splits) would be a starter for any other team in the BDBL, and Kyle Blanks (789 vs. RH) and Chris Denorfia (887 vs. LH) would make fine platoon players for any team.  But here in Allentown, they are all relegated to the bench.  Against both lefties and righties, the Ridgebacks lineup will feature seven hitters with 800+ OPS's, including MVP candidates Braun, Ellsbury, Stanton and Santana.  Allentown's starting rotation includes three Cy Young candidates, each with a CERA below 3.00.  And the bullpen includes FIVE pitchers with an opponent's OPS below 600.  With the addition of Andrus recently, the Allentown defense has also become a major strength, as Andrus adds his Ex range at shortstop to Zobrist's Vg glove at second, Hannahan's Ex glove at third, and Helton's Vg glove at first.  In fact, if you add Ellsbury's Vg glove in center, and Stanton's Vg glove in right, at least seven of the nine players on the diamond will have above-average range.  So, in addition to having a terrific pitching staff, and perhaps the league's best offense, the Ridgebacks will have perhaps the greatest defensive team of all time.

Weaknesses: Once you get past the 7th hitter in the Allentown lineup, it's clear sailing the rest of the way.  And if six of Allentown's outfielders get injured during a game, there really isn't a decent 7th outfielder who can capably fill that hole.  Oh, wait -- I forgot about Brian Bogusevic...and Mike Trout.  Scratch that.

Outlook: A year ago, the Ridgebacks lost 105 games.  Today, they own one of the greatest collections of talent in league history.  How is it possible to amass such a wealth of talent and make such a drastic turnabout in just one year?  Quite simply, there is a reason why Tom DiStefano has won four trophies in this league: he's a baseball genius.  Seriously.  If you want to know how to rebuild a struggling franchise (Jim Doyle, are you paying attention?), just examine what Tom did last year, and take notes.  It was a work of pure genius, and he should have been awarded the EL GMOY award for the job he did in 2011.  But genius is often unrecognized until many years later, and I have no doubt that Tom will win the award this season for decisions he made last season.  It doesn't make much sense to me, but that's how BDBL voters roll.

Everything Tom touched last year turned to gold.  Jacoby Ellsbury missed nearly the entire 2010 MLB season thanks to various injuries.  Over the winter, Tom traded Rick Porcello for him.  Not only did Ellsbury return to full health in 2011, but he suddenly blossomed into a power hitter, clubbing 46 doubles and 32 homers.  His previous career high in homers (majors, minors and probably little league) was NINE.  Todd Helton hit just .256/.362/.367 in MLB '10 and looked as though he was washed up for good at age 36.  Tom took a $1 million flier on him, and Helton bounced back with an 850 OPS at age 37.  Most young hitters who strike out 150 times a year in the minor leagues have a tough time adjusting to major league pitchers their first year or two.  Not Mike Stanton.  He clubbed 34 homers as a 21-year-old rookie.  Greg Holland was so useless that three chapters of the 2011 season passed before someone finally decided he was worth a roster spot.  That "someone" was Tom, who picked up Holland after he'd amassed less than 20 innings.  From that point on, Holland tossed 46 innings and held opposing batters to a miniscule 556 OPS.  He's now this team's best reliever.  The list goes on and on, but you get the point.

Prediction: 1st place, and the BDBL championship.  On paper, the Ridgebacks look as unbeatable as any team in BDBL history ever has.  With their combination of pitching, defense and offense, Allentown will cruise to another division title with at least as many wins this year as losses last year.  They will then face the Apostles in what promises to be an epic battle in the ELCS.  The winner of that series will undoubtedly win the BDBL championship.  Given the history of good fortune the Ridgebacks have enjoyed, and given the long litany of great disappointments the Apostles franchise has endured throughout history, I'm making the easy call that Tom will win trophy #5 this November.

Kansas Law Dogs

Owner: Chris Luhning
2011 Record: 105-55 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Doug Fister, Roy Oswalt, Bruce Chen, Corey Leubke
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Matt Guerrier, Sam LeCure, Jeremy Affeldt, Louis Coleman
Projected Lineup: Jose Tabata (RF), Gaby Sanchez (1B), Jose Bautista (3B), Carlos Gonzalez (CF), J.J. Hardy (SS), Logan Morrison (1B), Jemile Weeks (2B), John Buck (C)

Strengths: A two-headed Cy Young monster in the starting rotation by the name of Mole Hamcain.  (Or is it Catt Caimels?)  That right there is 481 innings of delicious, sub-2.40 CERA goodness.  #3 starter Fister would be the ace for a lot of teams in the BDBL (and in fact WAS the ace of the Broncs before they traded him recently.)  And having Rivera in your bullpen is never a bad idea.  Offensively, the team returns last year's home run and RBI's leader, Bautista, who should wreak havoc on opposing pitching once again in 2012.  And surrounding him in the lineup will be CarGo, whose numbers paled in comparison to last year's, but remains a force to be reckoned with.

Weaknesses: Aside from those two hitters mentioned above, Kansas really doesn't have much to Twitter about.  Hardy has some nice power numbers, but only gets on base at a .310 clip.  Morrison can handle righties okay (827 OPS), but isn't all that impressive against southpaws (723).  And Sanchez (901/742) has the opposite problem.  Even Gonzalez (.272/.329/.449 vs. LH's) has some platoon issues.

Outlook: These aren't your slightly older brother's Law Dogs anymore.  They don't play in a ballpark modeled after Planet Coors, and they aren't going to score 1,200 runs unless you tally it over two seasons.  But they do have a top shelf pitching staff, backed by excellent defense all around the diamond.  This gives Kansas an excellent chance of competing for a playoffs spot this season.  Given that Allentown has built yet another unbeatable superteam, this means that the 'Dogs will have to settle for the runner-up prize.

Prediction: 2nd place, and the EL wild card.  Kansas will ride their pitching to the post-season, but it won't be enough to get past the Ridgebacks or Apostles.

Great Lakes Sphinx

Owner: Scott Romonosky
2011 Record: 88-72 (2nd place, EL wild card)
Projected Rotation: Gio Gonzalez, Justin Masterson, Edwin Jackson, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Derek Lowe
Bullpen: Mark Melancon, Jesse Litsch, Franklin Morales, Micah Owings, Mark Rzcepkszkldzkski
Projected Lineup: Ian Kinsler (2B), Kevin Youkilis (3B), Nelson Cruz (RF), Prince Fielder (1B), David Murphy/Alex Rios (LF), Ryan Hanigan (C), Cliff Pennington (SS), Austin Jackson/B.J. Upton (CF)

Strengths: Now that Masterson has finally figured out how to pitch to left-handers (sort of), the Sphinx have two solid starters at the top of their rotation.  And Fielder lends his usual giant presence to the middle of the lineup.

Weaknesses: Beyond Masterson, the rotation is very thin.  Jackson, Harang, Capuano and Lowe are all decent inning-eaters with 170+ innings and an opponents' OPS between 750-780.  And although Melancon is a decent-enough reliever, he's not really a dominant closer.  Unfortunately, he appears to be this team's closer by default.  Beyond Fielder, the lineup has a couple of lefty mashers in Cruz (1096 OPS) and Youkilis (987), but neither one can hit righties nearly as well (747 for Cruz, 764 for Youk.)  That leaves Kinsler (815) as the next-best hitter against righties, and Murphy (809) as the only other hitter in the lineup with an 800+ OPS.

Outlook: This franchise waited 12 years to play their first playoff game, and it looks like it will be at least another year until their next one.  With Fielder, Kinsler and Youkilis eating up $25.6 million in salary next year, this team is only getting older and more expensive.  Gonzalez (26) and Masterson (27) are entering their prime, and there are no younger pitchers coming up behind them that have even half of their potential.  On the offensive side, Sphinx fans have Mike Moustakas to look forward to for the next decade, but no other up-and-coming young stud appears on the horizon (except maybe Dayan Viciedo.)  So the future of this franchise looks pretty bleak at the moment.  Oh, well.  It was fun while it lasted.

Prediction: 3rd place. Great Lakes will fall out of contention relatively early, giving Scott Romonosky plenty of time to wave the white flag.  Unfortunately, beyond Cruz and Upton (both free agents at the end of the season), there isn't a lot of trade bait to work with.

Villanova Mustangs

Owner: Tony Chamra
2011 Record: 68-92 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Daniel Hudson, Yovani Gallardo, Trevor Cahill, Carlos Carrasco, Jeff Niemann
Bullpen: Craig Kimbrel, Brian Fuentes, Marco Estrada, Joel Peralta, Joe Paterson, Tyson Ross, Jose Veras
Projected Lineup: Chris Iannetta (C), Luke Scott (LF), Andrew McCutchen (CF), Vernon Wells/Garrett Jones (RF), Eric Hosmer/Ty Wigginton (1B), Ryan Theriot (SS), Aaron Hill (2B), Brent Morel (3B)

Strengths: Two Butler Division castoffs, Hudson and Gallardo, give the Mustangs a very strong starting rotation, and Kimbrel is among the most dominant relievers in the game.  McCutchen kills lefties (945 OPS) and flashes Ex range in center field.

Weaknesses: There have been very few lineups in BDBL history as weak as this one.  The lineup I've listed above ends with three players with sub-700 OPS's.  That's not easy to do if you're making any effort whatsoever to compete.

Outlook: Tony Chamra spent five years wallowing around the Eck League cellar from 2001-2005.  He spent that entire time stockpiling his farm and simply waiting for them to develop.  Those players finally did develop, and all the stars aligned in 2006, resulting in a BDBL championship.  Chamra seems to be following the same formula today, opting to hold the door for the DiStefanos and Luhnings of the world, and simply killing time waiting for his young players to develop.  The Mustangs went from league champions in '06 to a below-.500 team in '07, and have stayed below .500 in each of the five years since that one magical season.  With Hosmer, McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Cahill, Gallardo and Kimbrel, Villanova owns six highly-coveted players all under the age of 27.  Lightning could very well strike again, and all the stars could simultaneously align for one more glorious season in the near future.  But why wait?  The Mustangs have the pitching to compete this year, and enough young players to trade for some quality hitting.  Instead, it looks like another season of patiently waiting for Mustangs fans.

Prediction: 4th place.  Yawn.

St. Louis Apostles

Owner: Bobby Sylvester, Jr.
2011 Record: 83-77 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Jared Weaver, Phil Humber, Josh Tomlin
Bullpen: Fernando Salas, Rex Brothers, Huston Street, Michael Stutes
Projected Lineup: Dustin Pedroia (2B), Joe Mauer (C), Michael Young (3B), Justin Upton (RF), Allen Craig (CF), Mark Trumbo (1B), Jeff Baker/Andre Ethier (LF), Jerry Hairston (SS)

Strengths: The best starting rotation in the BDBL, and one of the best in BDBL history.  Who is the ace of this staff?  Jared Weaver?  Cliff Lee?  Dan Haren?  Phil Humber?  It doesn't matter, because they're all awesome (especially Humber.)  Only 10 pitchers in baseball finished the 2011 season with 230+ innings pitched, and the Apostles own three of them.  And all three own a CERA under 2.50.  It's downright unfair.

Weaknesses: Hard to believe this is the same franchise that traditionally (and proudly) dismissed pitching in favor of building a relentless and merciless offense.  It doesn't even look like the same franchise without Albert Pujols.  This current Apostles lineup includes just three players (Pedroia, Upton and Young) with an OPS over 800 and more than 250 PA's.  I've listed Craig as the starting center fielder above, but really, he only has enough usage for half a season.  The only other players rated in center are Jayson Werth (675/730 splits) and Hairston (706/735).  The lineup also has a huge hole behind the plate against lefties, where Mauer (562 OPS) is no longer an option.  And while it was only a year ago that the Apostles could boast of having a nearly all-Ex-infield, the St. Louis defense is now well below average, with the exceptions of Pedroia (Vg) at second base and Upton (Vg) in right.  Hairston and Young form an all-Fr left side of the infield, and Baker (Fr) and Craig (Pr) are both below-average defensively.  The St. Louis bullpen is also a problem area, as it includes only two decent relievers (and both are being shopped at the moment.)  Perhaps Bobby believes it won't be an issue with three workhorses in the rotation.

Outlook: It's no secret that Bobby Sylvester was disappointed by his team's performance last year.  It's also no secret that he is going "all-in" on the 2012 season after spending the winter crafting trade after trade.  All that wheeling-and-dealing has left the Apostles franchise with an extremely impressive pitching staff and an offense that includes three big hitters surrounded by a bunch of role players.  Given that the Apostles' pitching will likely hold opponents to fewer than 650 runs this season, three great hitters might just be enough to win this division.  How much farther this team can go is in the hands of the Baseball Gods.  While the Fire Ants demonstrated that pitching can carry a team in a short series, there are also plenty of examples of teams with tremendous pitching that have failed miserably in the post-season.

Prediction: 1st place.  90% of the battle is simply getting to the Tournament of Randomness.  Once that happens, it's all a coin flip.  And this team, as presently constituted, is good enough to get to the post-season.  Of course, we all know that the team that eventually makes it that far will more than likely look nothing like this one, given that "Trader Bobby" will spend all summer at the trade table.

Southern Cal Slyme

Owner: Bob Sylvester, Sr.
2011 Record: 81-79 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Ervin Santana, Zack Greinke, Ryan Vogelsong, Kyle Lohse, Rick Porcello
Bullpen: Josh Johnson, Daniel Bard, Frank Francisco, Blake Hawksworth, Joe Nathan, Brian Wilson
Projected Lineup: Gerardo Parra (CF), Alex Gordon (LF), Paul Konerko (1B), Jeff Francoeur (RF), Gerald Laird/Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C), Aaron Miles (3B), Dee Gordon/Tsuyoshi Nishioka (SS), Mark Ellis (2B)

Strengths: I officially installed Johnson as this team's closer above, simply because he'd be more useful in that role than starting a dozen times.  Johnson (60+ IP, 579/422 splits) may have been the best pitcher in baseball last year, inning-for-inning.  He's backed by Bard (73 IP, 1.80 CERA, 611/461 splits), which gives the Slyme two of the most dominant "closers" in the game (even though neither one was a closer in MLB.)  The starting four of Hernandez, Santana, Greinke and Vogelsong is very strong, and Lohse (188+ IP, 3.05 CERA) is probably the best #5 starter in this league or any other.

Weaknesses: As impressive as the pitching staff is, the lineup is equally unimpressive.  It gets off to a good start with Parra (784 OPS), Alex Gordon (879) and Konerko (906), but then falls off a very steep cliff from there.  If you are still filling in your starting lineup when the draft rolls around to the 16th round, you know you're in trouble.  And that's exactly what Bob Sylvester seemed to be doing this year.  Frankly, I wasn't even sure how to set the defensive alignment, as there weren't any appetizing options for the last four spots in this batting order.

Outlook: Like the Mustangs, the Slyme certainly have the foundation for a winning team here, and could have really made a run for the playoffs if 100% effort was given.  But like the Apostles, the Slyme just don't have enough offensive firepower to make a serious run at a trophy, regardless of how great their pitching is.  Given the senior Sylvester's proclivity for holding white flag sales in the middle of the season (or prior), it's a safe bet that we'll be seeing a few selling posts from Southern Cal at some point this season.

Prediction: 2nd place.  The Slyme could very well finish ten games below .500 AND still finish in second place.  How is that possible?  Read on.

South Carolina Sea Cats

Owner: Tony DeCastro
2011 Record: 80-80 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Livan Hernandez, Jonathan Niese, Freddy Garcia
Bullpen: Aroldis Chapman, Jonathan Papelbon, Joel Hanrahan, Luke Gregerson, Wilton Lopez
Projected Lineup: Brandon Phillips (2B), Ramon Hernandez (C), Freddie Freeman (1B), Placido Polanco (3B), Marlon Byrd (CF), Willie Bloomquist/Stephen Drew (SS), Juan Pierre (LF), Sam Fuld (RF)

Strengths: Tony DeCastro spent $26 million on free agents in the auction this year to acquire veterans McCarthy ($7MM), Papelbon ($5.5MM), Scott Rolen ($1MM), Garcia ($3.5MM), Hernandez ($4MM) and Hanrahan ($5MM).  So the strength of this team is obviously its veteran leadership.  On a serious note, the bullpen is outstanding, led by Chapman, whose splits (392/598) are downright scary.  I'm not sure why this team needed three closers, but they have them if needed.  Tony must be employing the super-secret John Duel strategy.

Weaknesses: Like I wrote above, I'm not sure why this team needed to spend $10.5 million on closers when they already had three excellent relievers and no chance of competing.  I say "no chance" only because of this offense, which begins with Phillips and goes downhill from there.  With his OPS of 810, Phillips is the only hitter in the Sea Cats lineup with an OPS above 800.  And at 837, Freeman is the only hitter in the lineup with an 800+ OPS against right-handers.  It's very, very difficult to score runs when you don't get on base and you don't hit for extra bases.  Is this team really going to start Sam Fuld in right field??  The only other options seem to be Brad Hawpe (510/660 splits), Jason Pridie (630/687) and Cody Ross (698/740).  Blech.

Outlook: The Sea Cats have finished above .500 exactly twice in 13 seasons.  The closest they ever came to assembling a "dominant" team was in 2006, back when Kenny Rogers and Andy Pettitte were still slinging it, and the corner infield duo of Hank Blalock and Nick Johnson were expected to propel the Sea Cats into annual contention for a decade.  The Sea Cats have also never been really horrible, with the exception of 2009, when they lost 114 games.  For the most part, this franchise just floats around the 70-win mark, never really making any bold moves, and never seeming to have any real plan for long-term (or even short-term) success.  If I were a Sea Cats fan, I'd be bored out of my mind -- and probably gazing a little to the south in search of a new "favorite" team.

Prediction: 3rd place.  Yes, third place.  Because as depressing as this team is, it's not even the most depressing team in this division.  And that is an amazing statement, given that every team in this division finished at .500 or better only a year ago.

Niagara Locks

Owner: Mike Ranney
2011 Record: 81-79 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Roy Halladay, David Price, Matt Harrison, Homer Bailey, Felipe Paulino, Jake Westbrook
Bullpen: Francisco Cordero, Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, Henry Rodriguez, Chris Resop
Projected Lineup: Yunel Escobar (SS), Adrian Beltre (3B), Josh Hamilton (CF), Ryan Howard (1B), Nate Schierholz/Ben Francisco (RF), Jonathan Lucroy (C), Xavier Nady/Joe Benson (LF), Orlando Cabrera/Jonathan Herrera (2B)

Strengths: Man, the Eck League has so many teams that are just STACKED with pitching, yet have zero offense.  The Locks are definitely one of those teams.  Just look at the top of this rotation: Halladay, Price and Harrison.  It doesn't get much better than that.  Halladay's numbers just keep getting sicker and sicker: 233+ IP, 2.26 CERA, 659/511 splits...in a hitter's ballpark!  Price is another workhorse (224+ IP) with a sub-3.00 CERA.  And Harrison came out of nowhere to post a 3.40 CERA in 185+ innings -- in another hitter's paradise.  Given the hitter's paradise that Niagara's home park is, it's probably no coincidence that nearly every pitcher on the Niagara staff hails from an MLB park that is unfriendly to pitchers.

Weaknesses: Looking over this lineup is like walking into a friend's house and seeing trash and filth strewn about everywhere you look.  You want to focus on the positive things you see (like Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre) but you can't stop staring at the stack of dirty dishes in the sink and the week-old dog shit staining the carpet (like Joe Benson and whoever is playing second base for this team.)  And as you step over one steaming pile after another, you can't help but feel sorry for your friend.  But as embarrassed as you feel for him, you can't even imagine how embarrassed he must feel.

Outlook: Who is playing second base for this team this season?  Seriously.  Who is playing first base against lefties?  Surely, it can't be Howard (634 OPS.)  Who is this team's catcher against righties?  It can't be Lucroy (662 OPS), and Henry Blanco (778 OPS) doesn't have enough usage to get through even half a season.  Is Joe Benson (284/729) really this team's starting left fielder?  (Yes, that's a 284 OPS against lefties!!) I guess Michael Bourn (645 OPS vs. LH) would be an upgrade, but how sad is it that a 645 OPS is an "upgrade?"  And what about Nate Schierholtz and his 562 OPS vs. lefties?  Surely, he can't be starting full-time...right?  I guess Xavier Nady's 702 OPS is an improvement.

Prediction: 4th place.  It's hard to believe that a team with Halladay, Price and Harrison can possibly finish in last place, but I just can't get past this brutal offense.  Halladay is now in his final year under contract, which makes his $19 million salary meaningless to all would-be suitors.  It's only a matter of time before he is traded.  And when he is, can you imagine the shit storm that will follow?  No matter where he goes, it will signal the end of the world as we know it.  And there is no way that he will possibly fetch as much in return as he is worth.  This will get ugly, my friends.  Go find the ones you love and hold them close.  And always remember what is truly important in life.

Akron Rÿche

Owner: D.J. Shepard
2011 Record: 81-79 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Johnny Cueto, Tommy Hanson, Jhoulys Chacin
Bullpen: Joaquin Benoit, David Hernandez, Brandon League, Jason Motte, Eric O'Flaherty, Troy Patton, Blake Wood
Projected Lineup: Dustin Ackley/Brent Lillibridge (2B), Jhonny Peralta (SS), Corey Hart (RF), Mark Teixeira (1B), Seth Smith/Andruw Jones (RF), Nick Hundley (C), David Freese (3B), Jon Jay (CF)

Strengths: Verlander is simply the gift that keeps on giving (and keeps getting better year after year.)  Where Pedro Martinez once carried this franchise on his back, season after season, Verlander has picked up that torch and carried it even further.  He is, quite simply, the best pitcher in baseball.  And I traded him for Kris Honel.  True story.  Aside from Verlander, the Akron rotation is very strong, with three pitchers with sub-700 opponent OPS's and one (Cueto) with a 707 opponent OPS, who pitched half his season in Coors.  The bullpen is filled with a totally unnecessary number of dominant closers.  By my count, this team has four relievers with an opponent OPS below 600 (five, if you count Troy Patton as a reliever), and one who barely misses that threshold at 601.  Offensively, the Akron lineup includes FIVE hitters with 900+ OPS's against lefties and five hitters with 800+ OPS's against righties.

Weaknesses: I suppose if you wanted to nitpick, Freese and Jay aren't the most prolific hitters at the third base and center field positions, respectively.  But for #7 and #8 hitters, they will do just fine.

Outlook: It has been so quiet in Akron for so long, it's easy to forget they're even in the league.  Believe it or not, it's been six years since this franchise won a division title.  Once upon a time, from 2001-2003, the Ryche owned the Griffin Division.  But this team is never that far out of contention.  In fact, only once in 13 years have the Ryche dipped below 76 wins.  This year, Akron finally has enough firepower to move back to the front of the pack.

Prediction: 1st place.

Chicago Black Sox

Owner: John Gill
2011 Record: 71-89 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Mike Leake, Paul Maholm, Scott Baker, Zach Britton, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano
Bullpen: Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Marmol, Francisco Rodriguez, Javy Guerra, David Pauley, Jamey Wright
Projected Lineup: Curtis Granderson (CF), Rickie Weeks (2B), Miguel Cabrera (1B), Evan Longoria (3B), Matt Weiters/Chris Snyder (C), Starlin Castro (SS), Brandon Belt/Adam Jones (LF), Nick Markakis/Drew Stubbs (RF)

Strengths: This is old-school Chicago-style, smashmouth baseball at its finest.  There isn't a single hole in this lineup, which includes three legitimate MVP candidates.  The lineup is so stacked, there isn't even any room for Pablo Sandoval, who owns a 909 OPS!  FIVE batters on the Chicago roster own a 900+ OPS against lefties, and two batters own a 900+ OPS vs. righties.  If you lower the bar all the way to an 800+ OPS (which is the standard bar of greatness the rest of us use), then the counts are EIGHT against lefties and SEVEN against righties.

Weaknesses: There really isn't an ace of this staff.  Dempster is the only starter with more than 170 IP, and he owns a 4.55 CERA and 861/729 splits.  Baker owns the lowest CERA of all the starters (3.32), but lefties hit him at a 743 rate, in a ballpark that drastically favors pitchers, and he threw just 134 innings.  I've listed Leake (3.53 CERA, 167+ IP, 743/688 splits) first, because he combines innings with similar stats to Baker, but pitches in a much tougher ballpark.  Given that, however, Leake is far from "ace" material.  Similarly, the bullpen lacks a closer, in the classic sense.  Samardzdjiasja (88 IP, 3.05 CERA, 660/581 splits) is the closest thing this team has to one, but he averages more than five walks per nine.

Outlook: I'm calling this an old-school Chicago team because it reminds me so much of the teams that John Gill used to build back in this franchise's heyday.  In particular, it reminds of the 2000 team, which scored 987 runs and won 106 games despite having Todd Ritchie as the ace of the starting rotation.  Chicago v.12 could very well score more than 900 runs this season.  And when you score that many runs, you can win a ton of games even with a starting rotation led by the Todd Ritchies and Mike Leakes of the baseball world.

Prediction: 2nd place.

Cleveland Rocks

Owner: Mike Stein
2011 Record: 61-99 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Chris Carpenter, Shaun Marcum, Matt Garza, Ted Lilly, Jordan Zimmerman, Charlie Morton
Bullpen: Kenley Jansen, Alex Cobb, Matt Lindstrom, Vinnie Pestano, Dan Schlereth, Aneury Rodriguez
Projected Lineup: Torii Hunter (CF), Chris Coghlan/Nolan Reimold (LF), Mike Carp (1B), Aramis Ramirez (3B), Russell Martin (C), Nolan Reimold/?? (RF), Mike Aviles/Justin Turner (2B), Jason Donald/Kyle Seager (SS)

Strengths: This starting rotation includes four pitchers with sub-700 opponent OPS's (and another at 708).  It's difficult to name an "ace" of this staff, as the top five starters all fit that description.  The bullpen is led by one of the league's most dominant relievers, Jensen (1.96 CERA, 494/493 splits.)  And the lineup includes six hitters with 800+ OPS's against lefties.

Weaknesses: Against right-handed pitchers, the Rocks' lineup includes just three impressive bats: Chris Coghlan (801 OPS), Aramis Ramirez (884) and Nolan Reimold (830).  And the problem is that Coghlan and Reimold only have enough usage for half a season.  Given that the Rocks will be facing right-handed starters at least two-thirds of the time, this presents a problem.

Outlook: Yet another Eck League team with a ton of great pitching and not enough hitting.  The Rocks are maybe two hitters away from a playoffs-bound ballclub, and they will probably give a few teams some heartburn throughout the season.  But this lineup is no match for the Black Sox in this division, and this pitching staff is no match for the Ryche. That leaves Cleveland as the third best team in a division that is filled with good teams.

Prediction: 3rd place.  There's just too much competition in this division.  Mike Stein should petition the league to transfer to the Griffin Division.  We'll trade you John Duel.

Atlanta Fire Ants

Owner: Gene Patterson
2011 Record: 109-51 (1st place, BDBL champions)
Projected Rotation: Tim Hudson, Mat Latos, Max Scherzer, John Danks, Wade Davis
Bullpen: Sean Marshall, Sergio Romo, Jordan Walden, Jose Valverde, Ross Detwiler
Projected Lineup: Nyjer Morgan/Juan Rivera (CF), Chipper Jones (3B), Michael Cuddyer (2B), Jason Bay/Shelley Duncan (RF), Matthew Joyce (LF), Carlos Pena (1B), Carlos Ruiz/Eli Whiteside (C), Alexei Ramirez (SS)

Strengths: The starting rotation is solid (though not nearly as spectacular as last year), and the bullpen includes two closers with sub-600 OPS's against both lefties and righties, and two setup men with sub-700 OPS's against both sides.

Weaknesses: There are a couple of platoon hitters in the lineup -- Joyce and Pena -- who seem to have no partner to hit against lefties.  The lineup doesn't include one hitter with an 850+ OPS, and many of the hitters (Bay, Duncan, Heisey, Joyce, Morgan, Pena, Whiteside) have drastic platoon splits of more than 100 points.

Outlook: Wow, what happened to the champs?  There's no Clay Buchholz, no Hong-Chi Kuo, and no Papelbon.  Latos, Scherzer and Danks are mere shells of the superheroes they were only a year ago.  ELCS hero Justin Morneau is gone, as are Ian Kinsler, Angel Pagan, Jayson Werth, Rafael Furcal, Jim Thome and Miguel Olivo.  That's a LOT of attrition for a championship ballclub!  It appears as though Atlanta's impressive and inspiring streak of division titles, culminating in the most coveted title of all, is coming to an end this season.  Inevitably, every dynasty must crumble.

Prediction: 4th place.  I know Gene is putting on a good face, and trying his damndest to defend his title, but it just ain't happening.  Not with this ballclub.  Unlike the Villanova Mustangs, who went from dreadful, to league champs, and then back to dreadful again, the Fire Ants won't take nearly as long to rebuild.  Buchholz and Scherzer will bounce back. Bryce Harper will be a superstar, right out of the gate.  And Gene will add another couple of bats before Opening Day, 2013.  Then all will be right in Atlanta again.

 

BUTLER DIVISION

New Milford Blazers

Owners: Anthony Peburn
2011 Record: 97-63 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Clayton Asswipe, C.J. Wilson, Gavin Floyd, Josh Collmenter, Guillermo Moscoso
Bullpen: Santiago Casilla, Bill Bray, Kyle Farnsworth, Chad Qualls, Hisanori Takahashi
Projected Lineup: Alex Avila (C), David Ortiz (1B), Alex Gonzalez (RF), Mike Morse (LF), Robinson Cano (2B), Wilson Betemit/Miguel Cairo (3B), Shane Victorino (CF), Marco Scutaro (SS)

Strengths: Call him "Asswipe" or call him "The Franchise".  Either way, he's the best pitcher in the Ozzie League, and he is the frontrunning candidate to win the OL Cy Young award this season.  Thanks to the nonsensical bidding that took place in this winter's auction, Asswipe will be backed by C.J. Wilson, giving New Milford a pair of lefty aces.  Floyd, Collmenter and Moscoso then capably fill in the back of the rotation.  The bullpen is equally stacked with quality arms, led by Casilla (51+ IP, 2.11 CERA, 632/481 splits.)  And the lineup includes at least five hitters with 800+ OPS's against lefties and six hitters with 800+ OPS's against righties, including potential MVP candidates Ortiz, Gonzalez, Morse and Cano.

Weaknesses: After originally planning to play Ortiz out of position in right field, Peburn evidently had a change of heart and is now planning to play the Pr-ranged Ortiz at first base, and the Pr-ranged Gonzalez in right.  This seems like a waste of Gonzalez's Ex range at first base, but whatever.  I'm sure that plan won't last long (if it's actually the plan, and not the usual poorly-veiled Peburn smokescreen.)

Outlook: After countless years of cheesing up the league, it appears that Peburn has actually assembled a baseball team that looks like one that would succeed in the major leagues.  Robinson Cano, David Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez, C.J. Wilson...these are real, actual, legitimate major league stars as opposed to the usual assortment of pinch hitters and situational pitchers we're used to seeing in New Milford.  It's no coincidence that after having finally assembled a team filled with legitimate stars that the Blazers now look like a legitimate contender for the Ozzie League title.

Prediction: 1st place, and the Ozzie League championship.  The 2012 season will be nothing more than an afterthought by the end of April, leaving Peburn the entire summer to devise some devious plan to upset the Eck League champion in the World Series.  I'm warning you all right now: if Peburn wins a trophy before I do, I will quit immediately.

Salem Cowtippers

Owner: Mike Glander
2011 Record: 95-65 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: James Shields, Wandy Rodriguez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Colby Lewis
Bullpen: Rafael Betancourt, Darren Oliver, Matt Belisle, Kameron Loe, Bobby Parnell, Logan Ondrusek
Projected Lineup: Cameron Maybin (CF), Jose Reyes (SS), Matt Kemp (RF), Ryan Zimmerman (3B), Yadier Molina (C), James Loney/Justin Smoak (1B), Bobby Abreu/Ryan Ludwick (LF), Jamey Carroll (2B)

Strengths: Shields is an old-school workhorse, capable of closing out every game by himself.  He don't need no stinkin' bullpen.  The rest of the Salem rotation is perfectly fine, and the bullpen is filled with perfectly capable arms.  Reyes and Kemp are a couple of MVP candidates in the middle of the lineup, and Molina is an asset behind the plate, both offensively and defensively.  Maybin adds Ex range in center and speed on the bases.  And Jamey Carroll adds a clubhouse presence that is unmatched by anyone in baseball.

Weaknesses: The first base combo of Loney and Smoak isn't likely to capture the "Platoon of the Year" award for 2012.  Nor is the left field platoon of Abreu and Ludwick liable to send opposing pitchers running toward the exit.  Lewis has some platoon issues, and Ondrusek's feet smell.  Really bad.

Outlook: Listen, here's the thing.  The Cowtippers franchise has consistently won 90+ games and finished at the top of the division more often than not.  And whether they won 95 games and didn't even make the playoffs (like last year) or dominated the league throughout the season (like 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, etc.), the outcome has always been the same when all was said and done: no trophy for Mikey.  So the 2012 season will be no different in that regard.  Just another year of winning 90+ games for no particular reason whatsoever.  Whereas division titles used to be a given in Salem, it has now been FOUR YEARS since Salem's last title.  The last time the 'Tippers hoisted a division pennant in Salem, George W. Bush was still president, a gallon of gas cost just $1.61, and I was still in my 30's.  Now that's depressing.

Prediction: 2nd place, and the OL wild card.  With their two MVP candidates and one Cy Young candidate, the Cowtippers will be just good enough to make it to the post-season, and just bad enough to drop out of the post-season dice-rolling tournament in the first round.

Corona Confederates

Owner: Ed McGowan
2011 Record: 66-94 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: C.C. Sabathia, Derek Holland, Tim Stauffer, Kyle Kendrick, Chris Narveson
Bullpen: Chris Perez, Joaquim Soria, Rich Thompson, Aaron Crow, Edward Mujica
Projected Lineup: Howie Kendrick (2B), John Mayberry (CF), Albert Pujols (3B), Joey Votto (1B), Charlie Blackmon/Scott Hairston (RF), Sean Rodriguez/Rick Ankiel (LF), Lou Marson/Yovit Torrealba (C), Erick Aybar (SS)

Strengths: Never one to shy away from a bold move, McGowan made several of them this winter, adding two MVP candidates in Pujols and Votto, and a Cy Young candidate in Sabathia.  The Corona lineup now includes five players with an 800+ OPS against lefties, and three players with an 800+ OPS against righties.  Sabathia is a stud, whose ability to snuff out left-handed hitting (554 OPS) is perfectly-suited for Corona's lefty-friendly ballpark.  And Votto is a much better fit in that ballpark than he was in New York.

Weaknesses: Aside from Sabathia, the Corona rotation is filled with the sort of mid-to-end-rotation starters that plagued this team in 2010.  Of course, given that Corona won the division that year, I guess it was a mild plague.  With Votto at first, it wastes Pujols' Ex glove at first and shifts him to third, where he is rated Pr.

Outlook: Ed McGowan always finds a way to make a nuisance of himself, and this year is no different.  The Confederates will battle with the Cowtippers for the title of "Second Best" the entire season.  In the end, I believe Salem's deeper lineup, deeper rotation and deeper bullpen will prevail.  But then, I'm a little biased.

Prediction: 3rd place.  It's doubtful that Pujols will be rated at third base next year, so the Ed will have a big decision on his hands next winter: trade Pujols or Votto?  Given that Votto is signed through 2015, it would make sense to deal Pujols.  It's even possible that if the Confederates slide a little in the standings early in the season, McGowan will begin fielding offers for Pujols as early as Chapter Two.  Or maybe that's just wishful thinking.

Granite State Lightning

Owner: Ryan Glander
2011 Record: 56-104 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Jaime Garcia, Vance Worley, James McDonald, A.J. Burnett, Erik Bedard, Brian Duensing
Bullpen: Latroy Hawkins, Mitch Boggs, Matt Capps, Wade LeBlanc, Tommy Hunter, Mike Minor
Projected Lineup: Alexi Casilla/Jose Altuve (2B), Derek Jeter (SS), Lucas Duda (1B), Alejandro de Aza/Mitch Moreland (RF), Kurt Suzuki/Tyler Flowers (C), Alex Presley/Carl Crawford (LF), Casey McGehee (3B),

Strengths: The youngest, smartest, coolest and hippest owner in the BDBL.  (But not the best looking.  You have to trade for that title.)

Weaknesses: Pretty much everything about this team, aside from maybe Garcia and Worley.  This may be the worst offense ever assembled.  Even in the Lightning's cozy home ballpark, this team will have difficulty scoring 600 runs.  Only one hitter on the team (Duda) has more than 300 PA's and an OPS above 770.  And defensively, the Lightning will have below-average fielders at nearly every position, and a pitching staff filled with...well, the names above speak for themselves.

Outlook: Had the Lightning held onto Josh Beckett, Yadier Molina and $26 million in cash, would they have enough firepower to compete against the Blazers, Cowtippers and Confederates?  Well...no.  So new owner Ryan Glander bit the bullet, and took a one-year hit in exchange for rebuilding this franchise from the ground-up with tons of young talent, including Altuve, Duda, Flowers, Leonys Martin, Presley, McDonald, Minor and Worley, and a farm team that includes Michael Choice, Trevor May, Matt Sczcur, Jonathan Schoop and Zack Cox.  And once the contracts of Crawford, Jeter, Jason Bartlett and John Lackey are erased from the books at the end of this season, the Lightning will have around $40 million to spend on one of the most talented draft classes we've seen in years.  This is the way rebuilding is done.  Unless you're John Duel.  Then you trade all those good, young players for aging veterans with one-year contracts so you can avoid a hefty penalty.  Diff'rent strokes for diff'rent folks.

Prediction: 4th place.

Ravenswood Infidels

Owner: Brian Potrafka
2011 Record: 68-92 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Javier Vazquez, Alexi Ogando, Mark Buehrle, Bud Norris, Alfredo Aceves
Bullpen: Antonio Bastardo, Tyler Clippard, Rubby de la Rosa, Glen Perkins, Corey Wade, Clay Hensley
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler (CF), Daniel Murphy (2B), Carlos Beltran (RF), Carlos Lee/Travis Hafner (1B), Reed Johnson/Rajai Davis (LF), Ryan Roberts/Alberto Callaspo (3B), Ryan Doumit/Geovanny Soto (C), Jimmy Rollins/Robert Andino (SS)

Strengths: The Infidels' rotation includes four pitchers with 160+ innings and sub-4.00 CERA's, and the bullpen includes two closers with sub-600 opponent's OPS's against both lefties and righties.  Beltran is a monster in the middle of the lineup, and is one of only nine players in baseball who managed a 900+ OPS against both left-handers and right-handers last season.  Four other hitters on the team own a 900+ OPS against either lefties or righties.

Weaknesses: I've got nothing.  I'm not saying the Infidels are unbeatable; they just don't have any glaring weaknesses.

Outlook: Here's a fun fact: in odd-numbered years, the Ravenswood franchise has averaged 75 wins, and in even-numbered years, they have averaged 93.  This being an even-numbered year, it seems like a safe bet that the Infidels will rack up some wins.  And given that there isn't much competition in this division, Brian Potrafka should walk away from this season with his sixth division title in the nine years since taking over this franchise.

Prediction: 1st place.  The Infidels will have their hands full in getting past the Blazers in the OLCS.  But as Potrafka knows better than anyone, all it takes is one November hot streak to win a BDBL trophy.

Mississippi Meatballs

Owner: Nic Weiss
2011 Record: 86-74 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Anthony Swarzak, Jake Peavy, Kyle McClellan
Bullpen: Mike Adams, Chris Sale, Al Albuquerque, J.J. Putz, Cristhian Martinez, Sergio Santos
Projected Lineup: Darnell McDonald/Nate McLouth (CF), Troy Tulowitzki (SS), David Wright (3B), Victor Martinez (C), Jim Thome (1B), Todd Frazier/Dan Uggla (2B), Jason Bourgeois/Travis Snider (RF), Jonny Gomes (LF)

Strengths: The best bullpen in the Ozzie League -- if not the entire BDBL.  Adams, Sale, Putz, Santos, Albuquerque and Martinez each have an opponent's OPS below 615.  Alburquerque's opponent's OPS (438) is the lowest in all of baseball among all pitchers with 40+ innings, and Adams ranks #4 on that list.  Tulo, Wright and Martinez form a nifty trio in the center of the lineup, and Thome could far outperform his MLB numbers playing in Glik Park.

Weaknesses: After Romero and Morrow, the starting rotation is a hodgepodge of part-time starters, each with 142 innings or less on the season.  The Meatballs don't seem to have enough innings to get through an entire season, but I'm sure that Nic will find some way to rectify that situation.  The lineup has some platoon issues, as Snider (708 OPS vs. RH) doesn't seem like a viable platoon mate for Bourgeois, and Gomes (654 OPS vs. RH) doesn't seem to have a platoon partner at all.  Thome's defense at first (Pr, with an error rating of 300) will be an issue, as will Martinez's Pr throwing arm behind the plate.

Outlook: It's always difficult to predict how the Meatballs will perform in any given season, because there is always so much churning and arbitraging going on all season long by the Head Meatball-in-charge.  There are enough good players on this team that one would think they should be competitive this season.  This bullpen alone gives ample reason to believe that Mississippi will at least win a lot of one-run games and win more games than one would think by merely eyeballing them on paper.  But a division title is hardly a slam-dunk, especially given the strength of the Infidels.  Having the benefit of playing the Flamingos and Giants 16 times each gives the Meatballs an advantage in the OL wild card race, and I expect them to be very competitive in that race from beginning to end.

Prediction: 2nd place.  Nic will make his usual two dozen trades, and will appear to weaken his team with many of those trades.  But the Meatballs will just keep winning, regardless, and remain competitive throughout the season.  In the end, my prediction is that they will fall a few games short of the playoffs, giving them a very nice draft position in 2013, thanks to our new rule.

Las Vegas Flamingos

Owner: John Bochicchio
2011 Record: 84-76 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, R.A. Dickey, Jeremy Guthrie, Bronson Arroyo
Bullpen: Grant Balfour, Ryan Webb, Tim Byrdak, Mike MacDougal
Projected Lineup: Asdrubal Cabrera (SS), Ryan Raburn/Chase Utley (2B), Nick Swisher (RF), A.J. Pierzynski (C), Derrek Lee (1B), Chase Headley (3B), Laynce Nix/Endy Chavez (CF), Delmon Young/Aubrey Huff (RF)

Strengths: Against lefties, the Vegas lineup will feature four hitters with an 800+ OPS, including Swisher (957) and Headley (891).

Weaknesses: Although Kuroda is a perfectly fine pitcher, he's more of a #3 starter than an ace.  And the rest of the rotation is filled with those #4/#5 starter types.  Balfour (579/630 splits) is a good pitcher, but the rest of the bullpen is mediocre at best, and doesn't have nearly enough usage to last an entire season.  Against righties, Las Vegas has just one batter (Utley, at 829) with an OPS above 800.  And many of these hitters, such as Chavez (735 OPS vs. RH), Headley (729), Huff (671) and Pierzynski (711), really don't belong in the lineup at all against righties.

Outlook: The Flamingoes are an old ballclub that is getting older by the minute.  Of the 14 players on this roster with 200+ PA's, 10 of them are age 30 or above.  Of the four "youngsters", Headley (28) and Young (26) are free agents at the end of this season, Eduardo Nunez (25) is nothing more than a backup infielder, and Cabrera (26) will earn $4.6 million next year.  So by this time next year, the Flamingos will not own a single cheap, young, talented hitter.  On the pitching side, Nova (25) is the only starting pitcher under the age of 33, and the team's best reliever, Balfour, is 34 years old (and a free agent at the end of this season.)

Given that this team doesn't appear to be competitive this year, you would think Johnny Bo would've spent the winter stockpiling as many good, young players as possible.  Instead, he traded a promising young pitcher (Addison Reed) in exchange for 35-year-old catcher Pierzynski (and Robbie Erlin.)  He then spent $8.5 million on 8 free agents, aged 31, 36, 35, 34, 36, 40 and 38.  Seriously, these draft picks were a total waste of resources.  What good is Edgar Renteria or Tim Byrdak to a team that won't finish above .500 this year?  They have zero value this season, zero value next season, and zero trade value.

Here is what I wrote about the 2007 Atlanta Fire Ants.  The same "tough love advice" holds true for the 2012 Las Vegas Flamingos:

The Fire Ants finished in last place five years in a row before winning the wild card in 2005.  Then, they went right back into the cellar again.  What this franchise needs is a master plan.  They need to figure out where they are in the success cycle, then plan accordingly.  Right now, it seems like Atlanta is stuck in the same cycle as MLB franchises like Kansas City and Pittsburgh, where instead of stockpiling young players with some upside, they instead plug holes with expensive, past-their-prime free agents in an attempt to field a competitive team.  It's like riding around in a leaky raft and patching the holes with duct tape.  It'll keep you from drowning (at least temporarily), but you won't get very far.  The Fire Ants spent $30 million this winter, but you'd never know it from looking at this team.  $12.5 million of that money went to Delgado and Renteria -- two good bargains at those prices, but neither is likely to carry this team to the playoffs, and neither is likely to fetch a lot in return at the trade table.  Then, in the draft, good money was spent on aging mediocrities like Zaun, Isringhausen, Fossum and Jones.  Those players aren't likely to ever help this team in any way.  All they can do is provide enough innings and at-bats to get through this season.  Frankly, there are much better ways to spend $17 million.  The Fire Ants also had more than $30 million to spend last winter.  And that money went to mediocre, aging veterans like Craig Monroe, Cory Lidle, Mike Lieberthal, Kip Wells, Xavier Nady, Joe Kennedy, Guillermo Mota, Heath Bell and Wade Miller.  At some point, this team needs to sit down and draw up a two-year plan involving the acquisition of young players with MLB experience and upside, and maximizing every penny spent on salary.  Until that happens, this vicious cycle may never end.

As Gene Patterson proved, no situation is ever endlessly hopeless.  All it takes is a little effort.

Prediction: 3rd place, with 90-100 losses.

New York Giants

Owner: Jim Doyle
2011 Record: 74-86 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Bartolo Colon, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Karstens, Brett Cecil, Ricky Nolasco
Bullpen: Drew Storen, Tim Collins, Scott Atchison, Manny Acosta, Michael Dunn, Phil Hughes, Leo Nunez
Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner/Carlos Gomez (CF), Billy Butler (1B), Mike Napoli (C), Alfonso Soriano (LF), David DeJesus/Josh Reddick (RF), Darwin Barney/Orlando Hudson (2B), Brandon Inge (3B), Alex Gonzalez (SS)

Strengths: At-bat for at-bat (and there aren't many of them), Napoli is the best catcher in the Butler Division.  Storen (541/643) is the best pitcher on the team, and the only prayer this team has for stealing a few one-run wins.

Weaknesses: Sigh.  Unfortunately for Napoli, there isn't any protection for him anywhere in the lineup.  Butler (822) is the only other hitter in the lineup with an overall OPS above 800, and he owns lopsided 917/790 splits that aren't that helpful 70% of the time.  In fact, against righties, Butler's 790 OPS is the next-highest OPS on the team besides Napoli.  In other words, 600 runs scored is the over/under for this team (and I'm taking the under.)  On the other side of the ball, if Bartolo Colon is your ace, you know you're in big, big trouble.  Such is the case here in New York.

Outlook: This franchise's sub-.500 streak has now reached TWELVE YEARS, and this year will undoubtedly become number thirteen.  And there is no end in sight from where I'm sitting.  Jesus Montero and Yonder Alonso are exciting young players, but it's difficult to build a team around them when you're paying Napoli 24% of the team's total salary.  The Napoli signing was perhaps the most nonsensical signing in league history, and it has all but eliminated the Giants from contention for the next two years.  Any rebuilding process normally begins with a stockpiling of good, young, cheap players -- especially pitchers.  But with Gio Gonzalez gone, this roster is completely void of good, young pitching.  Like the 2007 Atlanta Fire Ants team that I referenced above, New York is a franchise in dire need of a makeover.  (And by that, I mean more than merely another name change or ballpark image.)  Acquiring Montero and Alonso is a decent start, but it will take much more than that to turn this franchise around.

Prediction: 4th place.  By a lot.

Sylmar Padawans

Owner: John Duel
2011 Record: 77-83 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Jason Hammel, Carl Pavano, Mike Pelfrey, Tim Wakefield, Jonathan Sanchez
Bullpen: David Robertson, Joe Smith, Todd Coffey, Kerry Wood, George Sherrill, Jesse Crain, Juan Nicasio
Projected Lineup: Neil Walker (2B), Emilio Bonifacio (SS), Matt Holliday (LF), Lance Berkman (1B), Hunter Pence (RF), Mark Reynolds (3B), Peter Bourjos (CF), Miguel Olivo/Rod Barajas (C)

Strengths: John Duel forked out $14.5 million for Berkman and Robertson this winter, so you'd better believe they are a strength.  Berkman is an MVP candidate and Robertson has one of the lowest opponents' OPS's in baseball (506).  Bumgarner (Duel's reward for allowing Matt to take A-Rod's $140 million contract) is a 22-year-old lefty ace at the top of the rotation.  And the lineup is filled with quality bats, including a 3-4-5 in Holliday, Berkman and Pence that has few equals.

Weaknesses: With its LH HR factor of 65, Dagoba Field is murder on left-handed power hitters, which mitigates Berkman's ability to contribute somewhat.  Beyond Bumgarner, no one would ever confuse Hammel, Pavano, Pelfrey or Wakefield with a #2 or even a #3 starter.  Reynolds has his issues both offensively (196 K's in 620 PA's) and defensively (Pr range at 3B.)  Walker (672 OPS vs LH) needs a platoon partner at second base, but only Bonifacio is rated at second.  That means that someone like Rafael Furcal (634 OPS vs. LH) or Brendan Ryan (708) would become the shortstop...which wouldn't solve that problem.  And the platoon of Olivo and Barajas behind the plate inspires neither awe nor fear.

Outlook: John takes these predictions more seriously than anyone in the league, so I have to be very careful how I parse my words.  Last year, I missed my prediction for the number of Padawans wins by four, and I haven't heard the end of it.  According to John's often-told narrative, he has been patiently biding his time for the past three years, carefully managing his salary, and trading away the future of his franchise for temporary stopgaps, which have allowed him to avoid having to pay that godforsaken, terror-inducing, franchise-crippling, life-threatening, fun-sapping, worst-thing-to-happen-since-the-Bush-administration penalty.  And now, the wait is over.  John's years-in-the-making master plan has come to fruition, and 2012 is the year we all begin to finally witness the full wrath and fury of John Duel.  And while the three big hitters in the middle of the lineup are impressive, and Robertson is a stud, and Bumgarner is a bigger stud, I can't help but wonder how a team can be competitive with a starting rotation that includes Jason Hammel, Carl Pavano, Mike Pelfrey and Tim Wakefield.  Yet, incredibly, I don't see any team that is better in this division.  So the Padawans win by default.

Prediction: 1st place.  Shades of 2005/2006 all over again.  With Paulson taking a year to reassemble his troops, and with Matt Clemm buried under a pile of bad contracts, Duel and Newgard are left to battle it out for the division title in a season-long struggle.  I believe it will be a close and hard-fought battle, but in the end Sylmar will prevail.  San Antonio simply can't match the firepower the Padawans bring to the table, and the weakness of this Padawans rotation can be mitigated by the strength of the bullpen.  Normally, you need pitching to win in the post-season, so I don't see Sylmar going far once they get to the post-season.  But I'm sure that if they should somehow luck their way into a few wins in the Tournament of Randomness, John won't ever let me forget that I predicted otherwise.

San Antonio Broncs

Owner: Greg Newgard
2011 Record: 96-64 (2nd place, OL wild card)
Projected Rotation: Michael Pineda, Anibal Sanchez, Chad Billingsley, Randy Wolf, Dustin Moseley
Bullpen: Neftali Feliz, Ryan Madson, Heath Bell, Matt Thornton, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Dan Wheeler, Luis Ayala
Projected Lineup: Melky Cabrera (CF), Brennan Boesch (LF), Josh Willingham (LF), Miguel Montero/JP Arencibia (C), Edwin Encarnacion/Adam Lind (1B), Omar Infante (2B), Danny Valencia/Encarnacion (3B), Clint Barmes (SS)

Strengths: I wrote it last year, and I'll write it again: gee, you think the Broncs have enough closers?  I've never really understood the purpose of having so many good relievers that you can't even keep them all on your active roster.  But then again, the Broncs won more games than the Cowtippers last season, so what do I know?  Feliz, Bell and Madson each owns an opponents' OPS below 600, and Thornton and Perez are at or below 650.  That's just ridiculous.  Unlike last year's squad, this year the team has a legitimate ace at the top of its rotation in Pineda.  And even after trading away their second ace, Doug Fister, the Broncs have enough starting pitching to improve on last year's runs allowed (633, which ranked #2 in the OL.)

Weaknesses: I don't know how the Broncs scored 783 runs last season without one all-star hitter, nor any hitter with more than 100 runs created, and playing in a home ballpark that severely crippled offense.  This year, the Broncs' home park is a lot more friendly to right-handers, but still severely hinders left-handed power hitters like Boesch, Lind and Montero.  Free agent signing Willingham (783/823 splits) is as close as this team has had to an offensive star in at least two years, and he should have a tremendous year.  But as a team, this team averaged 736/742 splits in MLB last season, which is right around league average (740/733).

Outlook: So, if the Broncs finish in the middle of the pack in runs scored, and finish near the top of the pack in preventing runs...that gives them a pretty good chance of competing, right?  That seems logical to me.  But is this team good enough to win this division?  In most years, when Paulson isn't spending all his time dismantling his roster, building a crib from scratch and watching "Mr. Mom" to prepare himself for fatherhood, I would say no.  But every year, we have at least one division that is up for grabs because the "top dog" decided to take a little rest.  And after winning FIVE wild cards over the past 12 years, maybe it's finally time for this franchise to win a division title.

Prediction: 2nd place.

Los Altos Undertakers

Owner: Jeff Paulson
2011 Record: 106-54 (1st place, OL champions)
Projected Rotation: Brandon Beachy, Jon Lester, Luke Hochevar, Brett Myers, Jason Marquis
Bullpen: Andrew Bailey, Steve Cishek, Henderson Alvarez, Joba Chamberlain, Juan Cruz, Rafael Soriano
Projected Lineup: Casey Kotchman (1B), Drew Stubbs/Jason Heyward (CF), Brian McCann (C), Brett Lawrie/Martin Prado (3B), Hanley Ramirez (SS), Craig Gentry/Raul Ibanez (LF), Greg Dobbs (RF), Kelly Johnson (2B)

Strengths: Pitching has always been the strength of every Los Altos team, dating back to the 20th century, and this year is no exception.  For a team that is in "rebuilding mode," the Undertakers have a very good pitching staff that can and will cause trouble for opponents looking for an "easy win."  Beachy is a talented young pitcher who will give Los Altos 155 innings of near-ace performance, and Lester and Hochevar are solid mid-rotation options.  As always, the Undertakers' bullpen is a strength, even AFTER dealing away their two most dominant closers.  And the top of the lineup isn't all that bad.

Weaknesses: The top of the lineup isn't all that good, either, and it just gets worse from there.  Lawrie is the best hitter on the team, but he's limited to about 47 games.  That leaves a gaping hole at third base during the other 113 games.  And there are already three gaping holes in left field, right field and second base.  And with a 633 OPS against righties, Ramirez forms another gaping hole during the 70% of the time the team faces right-handed pitching.

Outlook: Had Jeff Paulson held onto Evan Longoria, Curtis Granderson, Adrian Gonzalez, Jonny Venters, Mike Adams, J.J. Putz and Al Alburquerque this winter, I actually think they would have been the favorites to win this division.  As it stands, however, Jeff has taken the path of so many before him by waving the white flag before the season even begins, so that he can concentrate on building an unstoppable superteam for 2013 and beyond.  Hey, the strategy works, so why not?

Prediction: 3rd place.

Bear Country Jamboree

Owner: Matt Clemm
2011 Record: 52-108 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Jason Vargas, Joe Saunders, John Lannan, Randy Wells, Clayton Richard
Bullpen: John Axford, Javier Lopez, Lance Lynn, Ramon Ramirez, Eduardo Sanchez
Projected Lineup: Johnny Damon (LF), Kosuke Fukudome (CF), Alex Rodriguez (3B), Carlos Quentin (RF), Scott Sizemore (2B), Wilson Ramos (C), Miguel Tejada (SS), Brett Wallace (1B)

Strengths: Matt Clemm's devotion to Alex Rodriguez.

Weaknesses: Alex Rodriguez.  Seriously, that contract was the worst thing to happen to Matt since McDonald's stopped selling the McRib sandwich.  But the problems on this team go far beyond A-Rod.  This pitching staff is a mess.  The rotation includes five pitchers who are perfectly fine #5 starters, but they are not, nor ever will be, anything more than that.  Axford is a decent closer with lopsided splits (481/621), but the rest of the bullpen is pure vanilla.  The lineup is filled with way-past-their-prime vets like Damon, Fukudome, A-Rod and Tejada.  And is this team really going to play Brett Wallace at first base?  Seriously?

Outlook: Although John Duel would like you to believe this team's problems begin and end with that $7.5 million penalty they will be paying every year for the next several years, the financial malfeasance runs much deeper than that.  In fact, if Matt were any worse at managing his money, the Obama administration would hire him immediately to work on the budget deficit.  Start with the fact that this team will be paying $24 million to A-Rod and Rich Harden next year AND the year after that.  They'll also be shelling out $6.1 million for Carlos Quentin, $3.1MM for Fukudome and $3.1MM for Lannan.  That's $36.3 MILLION allocated to five mediocre ballplayers.  NOW add in the $7.5MM in penalties, and that leaves so little with which to build a team that Matt couldn't even use the #1 pick in the draft this season (allowing Tom to have that honor instead.)  And when he finally had a chance to make a pick, how did he spend his first $3 million of the winter?  On 34-year-old utility infielder Freddy Sanchez.  How does Sanchez help this team this year, next year, or via trade?  This is why this franchise is doomed to failure.

Prediction: 4th place, with at least 110 losses.  But hey, look at it this way: they've already reached that $7.5MM penalty cap, so it can't get any worse.