September, 2012
Best of
the Forum, 2012
For the uninitiated (that would be you,
Ryan and Kevin), this is my annual article where I review
some of the comments made on our league forum over the past year and
either applaud the writer for his keen insight or (far more often) bash
him mercilessly for writing something really stupid. This being an
election year, we'll start with a political post. This one is an oldie,
but a goodie.
"I remain optimistic that Obama
can clean up Bush's mess and right the ship. If he can't, then I
agree that he will have a very difficult time getting re-elected."
-- John Duel, 6/3/09
Given that the ship in John's analogy
is currently sitting on the bottom of the ocean awaiting a salvage crane, I'd
say the captain went horribly wrong.
I could probably post 1,000 more political quotes, but since most of you
hate politics, I'll move on to baseball.
"Stole this idea from
mlbtraderumors....where will the big dogs sign?
Albert Pujols - Nationals
Prince Fielder - Rangers
Yu Darvish - Japan
CJ Wilson - Rangers
Jose Reyes - Tigers
Edwin Jackson - Orioles
Jimmy Rollins - Cardinals
Aramis Ramirez - Blue Jays
Carlos Beltran - Red Sox
Jon Papelbon - Mets
Mark Buehrle - Cardinals
Yoenis Cespedes - Yankees
David Ortiz - Red Sox
Roy Oswalt - Yankees
Grady Sizemore - Cubs"
-- Bobby Sylvester,
11/7/11
That's a solid 1-for-15 for young
Sylvester. But don't fret, Bobby. Predicting what will
happen in the game of baseball isn't easy. Just ask Bill James:
"Bill James must be some kind of
nut... he sees [Jesus] Montero's split at 289/351/505 in 552 PAs...
must be nuts..."
-- Jim Doyle, 12/8/11
Not nuts, Jimbo. Just wrong.
As I type, Montero's splits stand at .259/.298/.403 after 432 AB's.
James is no Nostradamus. Don't let the beard fool you.
"What is the over/under on IBB's
for Napoli this year? Is 40 too low?"
-- Anthony Peburn,
1/14/12
At press time, Napoli has been
intentionally passed 36 times. With one chapter remaining, I'll
take the over on Peburn's prediction.
"I hope that now [Ryan Braun]
has to play clean he bats .250 with 10 HRs. If there is a noticeable
drop off in his production it will prove he is guilty - well he is
because he failed the drug tests."
-- John Gill, 2/23/12
And by that logic, if Braun has an even
BETTER season, would that prove he is innocent? As I type, Braun
is hitting .311/.388/.605, with 37 homers. His 993 OPS
is nearly identical to the 994 OPS he posted in his "steroids-fueled"
MVP campaign, and his 37 homers represents a career high. So, does
this mean: a) Braun never took steroids, b) Braun is still taking
steroids, or c) steroids don't really make that much of a difference in
a baseball player's performance?
"Humber is far, far more
valuable for the 2012 BDBL season than Carpenter; it's not even
close."
-- Tom DiStefano,
11/30/11
Humber's BDBL performance to date: 7-6,
3.24 ERA, 114 IP, 113 H, 25 BB, 95 K, 7 HR
Carpenter's performance to date: 14-12, 3.29 ERA, 197 IP, 227 H, 44 BB,
150 K, 16 HR
It's a toss-up.
Inning-for-inning, maybe Humber gets a (very) slight edge, but Carpenter
has thrown 83 more innings, which makes him more valuable overall.
Then, if you factor in the difference between St. Louis' ballpark
factors and Sylmar's, Humber gets a few bonus points. But is the
difference between the two "not even close?" Not even close.
"I've probably shot myself in
the foot by taking on [David] Wright."
-- Nic Weiss, 12/2/11
If by "shot in the foot", you mean
"shot in the foot and had bionic surgery to give yourself a much better
foot," then yes, that's exactly what happened. Not only has Wright
hit a healthy .264/.349/.421 for the Meatballs this season, but he's
hitting a robust .311/.402/.501 in MLB.
"DJ had no interest in trading
David Hernandez for [Carlos] Pena, but said he might be willing to trade me a
prospect. I listed EIGHT prospects from his roster that I would
trade Pena for. He said no thanks."
-- Mike Glander, 12/6/11
I make so many trade offers that I
often forget some of them. I found this comment, and thought it
was amusing enough to include here. I can't even remember why I
wanted Hernandez, but given that Pena was an MVP candidate in the Eck
League, I can't help but think that Akron would've benefited greatly
from that trade had DJ pulled the trigger.
"What is this absurd love affair
with Allen Craig all about? We're talking about a 26-year-old
"rookie" who had 200 freaking at-bats last year. Let's just calm
down about his .917 OPS in those 200 AB's...hmm?"
-- Mike Glander, 12/11/11
Well, color me red. Craig is
having a career year in MLB, hitting .311/.367/.556 at the ripe old age
of 28. He must be taking steroids.
"Mark Trumbo? Seriously? Yeah,
the 29 homers are great. The 25 BB's and 120 whiffs? Not so much.
We're talking about the second coming of Jim Presley here."
-- Mike Glander, 12/11/11
Trumbo, age 26: .273/.326/.510, 30 HR
in 473 AB, 34 BB, 131 K
Presley, age 26: .230/.280/.355, 14 HR, 36 BB, 114 K
Yeah, I guess that analogy doesn't work
as well as I thought.
"Two years of Pujols for five
years of Mauer. That could be a bonus for Bobby. But it could also
easily be an anchor around his neck. Mauer suffered through a
miserable, injury-filled year, and undoubtedly be moved from behind
the plate eventually. And we're talking about a guy with a career
slugging % of .471 (.451 if you remove his out-of-nowhere 2009
season.) As a catcher, he's awesome. As a first baseman...not so
much."
-- Mike Glander, 12/11/11
"Mauer's OPS this
season will be at least 150 points higher than [Alex] Avila...you can take
that to the bank."
-- Bobby Sylvester,
12/11/11
"If you think the
Twins are going to play a 28 year old who is making 23 million
dollars less than 400 PA (outside of injury) you are insane, but I
think we have all already determined that...Mauer's PA's every year
have been 554, 608, 471, 633, 606, 584, and then the fluke injury
season last year (333)...he is the most durable catcher the MLB has
seen in 20 years."
-- Bobby Sylvester,
12/12/11
Mauer is projected to
reach 557 AB's this year, which would be a career high. He's also
back to hitting like the Mauer of old, at .317/.411/.444 at press time.
Not only that, but his OPS is 131 points higher than Avila's.
Chalk this one up in the win column for Bobby (so far.)
Fearless prediction: Mauer
will not play a single inning for the Apostles in 2013.
"We're betting that
[Kevin Youkilis] will be worth a 2 yr, $19M contract after this
year."
-- Scott Romonosky,
12/12/11
"I'll take that
bet."
-- Mike Glander,
12/12/11
What did I win?
"[Jesus] Montero
and [Kyle] Drabek and company will be worth more in the long run,
just wait and see.."
-- Jim Doyle, 12/12/11
Still waiting...
"So, to recap this
wonderous offseason, New Yuk has traded
Gio Gonzalez, Phil Humber, Lance McCullers, Joey Votto, Scott Downs,
JJ Hoover, Jake Peavy, Sergio Santos and Andy Oliver
for
Jesus Montero, Anthony Gose, Wandy Rodriguez, Billy Butler, Mike
Moustakas, Drew Storen, Nolasco and Drabek."
-- Anthony Peburn,
12/12/11
Well, sure, when you put
it that way, it looks really bad. In his defense, Doyle then
traded B.J. Upton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Stewart, Pat Burrell and Moustakas
for Zack Greinke, Brett Gardner and Yonder Alonso. He also traded
Wandy Rodriguez for Jair Jurrjens and Jeff Karstens. And he then
traded Greinke and Alex Meyer for Josh Reddick, Jose Iglesias, Kevin
Correia, Michael Wuertz and Marcus Thames. Oh, and he also traded
Alonso, Gose and Brad Penny for Ted Lilly, Matt Garza, Alex Cobb and
Matt Lindstrom.
So really, when you let
the dust settle, Jim actually traded:
Gio Gonzalez, Phil Humber,
Joey Votto, Nelson Cruz, Ian Stewart, Pat Burrell, B.J. Upton, Wandy
Rodriguez, Mike Moustakas, Anthony Gose, Jake Peavy, Sergio Santos and a
few scrubs...
...for...
Jesus Montero, Billy
Butler, Drew Storen, Kyle Drabek, Brett Gardner, Josh Reddick, Jair
Jurrjens, Jeff Karstens, Ted Lilly, Matt Garza, Alex Cobb and a few
scrubs.
Wait...that makes it look
even worse. Never mind. Sorry, Jim, I tried.
"I was probably
going to cut [Austin Romine and Chris Capuano] anyway. And Eric
Chavez is going to be slightly useful so it was a good trade even
though I might have been able to get more for Capuano."
-- Ryan Glander, 12/13/11
With a 3.63 ERA in 173+
innings in MLB this year, Capuano turned out to be the star of this
trade. Who knew?
"Stauffer's splits
were .774/.683 in a league where the average OPS was .710. Throw in
the SD park factors and you get a guy who's almost unusable in the
BDBL. That OPS against lefties is going to go to about .825 after
you figure in the park, blech."
-- Tom DiStefano,
12/15/11
Ballpark factors,
schmallpark schmactors. Stauffer has posted a stellar 10-6 record
and 4.25 ERA for the 'Feds this season, despite a lefty split of 869.
Not only has he been usable, but he's been Corona's second best starting
pitcher (after C.C. Sabathia) this season. Yeah, I don't get it,
either.
"Problem is, you
are talking about a guy [Brandon McCarthy] who has pitched over 100
innings TWICE in his whole career. Last year his ERA was a whole run
and a half lower than his BEST season ever. He'll be 29 by the time
the season ends and has a long history of injury problems. Sure he
is the best in the auction for THIS coming year but Type H.....I
think that is way too risky."
-- Gene Patterson, 1/3/12
"$7MM for Brandon
McCarthy?? I thought I took a risk last year in signing John Lackey
for $6MM, but at least he had a long track record of health and
success. (And you see how that worked out for me!)"
-- Mike Glander, 1/3/12
Sure, he missed the entire
month of July, but when healthy, McCarthy has been pretty stellar in MLB:
107+ IP, 110 H, 10 HR, 23 BB, 70 K, 3.10 ERA. He won't be worth
anywhere near $7MM in 2013, but he's a solid $5MM pitcher, and a
playoffs asset.
"By the way, with
Napoli going from a home RH HR factor of 134 to 85, how many HR's do
you think he'll hit for Jim this year? I put the over/under at
23.5."
-- Mike Glander, 1/4/12
Ballpark factors,
schmallpark schmactors, Part II: Napoli's Revenge. In 320 AB's,
Napoli has hit 28 homers in a ballpark modeled after San Fran's AT&T
Park. In 369 AB's in MLB '11, hitting in TEXAS, Napoli hit 30
homers in 369 AB's. I guess those factors don't matter as much as
we think.
"THANKS JIM!! Your
retarded bid on Napoli allowed me to land [Marco] Scutaro, as
Atlanta and Los Altos already had SS's, so no one could outbid me
unless they went type H. Very happy to land the 7th highest OPSing
SS in baseball. He will be our #9 hitter."
-- Anthony Peburn, 1/5/12
Scutaro is hitting a
robust .266/.318/.358 for the Blazers this season. THANKS, JIM!!
"Hey! I won 95
games with a mediocre offense. I should win 88 with this bunch of
stiffs."
-- Greg Newgard, 1/6/12
Err...a little off on that
prognostication, Kreskin.
"FYI, I'm not
entirely opposed to signing a Type H guy (I went 12.5M on Napoli and
12M on CC knowing it was possible that I could win those bids), but
I do think you have to be selective about them in our unfriendly
penalty environment."
-- John Duel, 1/6/12
...says the fella who then
traded for Ryan Howard, Mark Reynolds and Rickie Weeks. Maybe all
of Duel's bitching about our penalty system was just a rope-a-dope-like
ruse to lull us all into a sense of false comfort that John would never
acquire any high-priced players. That's some masterful game theory
right there, my friends.
"Yes, [Miguel]
Olivo won't hit for average, but by my rough math, he will actually
produce more home runs in my park than Napoli would have...My math
was that Napoli would hit about 18-20 in my ballpark (in 120 or so
games) and that Olivo would hit 20-22 (in 150 or so games)."
-- John Duel, 1/6/12
Olivo is hitting
.215/.250/.356 for the Pads this season, with 11 homers in 96 games.
John, I've said it before and I'll say it again: math is not your
strength.
"There is NO WAY
[Yu Darvish] posts numbers worse than (8 K/9, 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
next season unless he gets injured. That makes him a 12 mil pitcher
in the auction and a top 10 pitcher in the MLB, somebody bet me,
please."
-- Bobby Sylvester,
1/6/12
Darvish's numbers at press
time: 10.5 K/9, 4.29 ERA, 1.37 WHIP. Did anyone accept Bobby's
wager?
"Cepedes, by the
way, will immediately post at least Shane Victorino type numbers
(279/355/491, 19 SB, and good defense in OF), but more likely Carlos
Gonzalez (295/363/526, 20 SB) and is coming into the league as a 26
year old ready to burst into his prime."
-- Bobby Sylvester,
1/6/12
Cespedes: .294/.353/.488,
14 SB. Now THAT is pretty impressive! Factor in Oakland's
ballpark, and his numbers might approach CarGo territory. You
redeemed yourself with this prediction, Bobby.
"But Tom's weird
stats-only scouting then took a turn for the worse when he selected
Saladino, Motter and Mummey. It's amusingly ironic that the guy who
recently complained about having to log pointless farm guys onto his
spreadsheet, only to see them released shortly thereafter, concluded
his draft with three players who will almost certainly be released
before the end of the year."
-- Mike Glander, 1/6/12
Tragically, Trent Mummey
was released in Chapter Four. Saladino and Motter remain on BDBL
rosters, for the time being at least.
"Bartolo Colon will
be excellent in DMB this season...go ahead and mark my words Mikey."
-- Bobby Sylvester,
1/10/12
Words marked.
"Excellent" is a relative term, but it's fair to say Colon has been
"decent": 9-12, 3.72 ERA, 145 IP, 136 H, 14 HR, 36 BB, 117 K.
Which is exactly what we all expected, come to think of it.
"I'm really looking
forward to seeing [David] Ortiz plod around in right field at Nestle
this summer. But more than that, I'm REALLY looking forward to
seeing Peburn pay that fat bastard $6.5MM next year and $7.5MM in
2014. Please, I beg my fellow owners, do not allow Peburn to escape
from that contract."
-- Mike Glander, 1/10/12
It's tough to judge a
player's fielding performance through traditional stats, but the fat man
has only made 6 errors in 127 games this season, with 142 putouts and 6
assists. He even turned a double play...from left field.
"[David] Ortiz and
[Adrian Gonzalez] will hit 100 homers combined in DMB this year,
thanks to DMB's dopey factors."
-- Mike Glander, 1/11/12
Through 132 games, Ortiz
and Gonzalez have combined for just 54 homers in the BDBL. It's
probably a safe bet that my prediction won't come true. And I'm
really bummed about that.
"CJ Wilson will go
for 13M+"
-- Jim Doyle, 1/11/12
"$8 mil."
-- Tom DiStefano, 1/11/12
"I think he'll go
for at least $10M."
-- John Duel, 1/11/12
"Wilson will go for
less than $8MM. How's that for a prediction?"
-- Mike Glander, 1/11/12
If this were the Price is
Right, Tom would be standing next to Drew Carey, jumping up and down
excitedly and clapping his hands.
"[Grady] Sizemore's a long shot, but
[it] was between him and [Justin] Morneau for a while
and I think Sizemore will have a better season."
-- Ryan Glander, 1/13/12
Morneau, MLB '12: 436 AB, .275/.331/.461
Sizemore, MLB '12: 0 AB,
.000/.000/.000
D'oh!
"This trade allowed me to upgrade offensively at three positions and
gives me good depth. Sure, I add one high priced contract but I also
gain 60 HRs in this deal. Basically, I gave up two guys that factored
into my plans this year and 3 that didn't. I think it was a no-brainer."
-- John Duel, 1/22/12
"That is a bold statement. How did you gain 60HR's?
John, there is NO WAY the guys you just got [Mark Reynolds, Peter
Bourjos and Casper Wells] combine for 45 HR's this season."
-- Anthony Peburn, 1/22/12
Through 128 games,
Reynolds, Bourjos and Wells have combined for 27 home runs this season.
Again, John, please leave math to the mathematicians.
"I predict the Blazers to break the single season wins record!
Go Blazers!!!"
-- Chris Luhning, 1/26/12
New Milford is on pace to
win 109 games this season. They'll need to go 27-1 in the final
chapter to break that record. I think they can do it, because
they're just that awesome.
"Moore > (Harper + Trout) career."
-- Anthony Peburn, 4/28/12
I'd say Moore has quite a
bit of catching up to do.
"I love it. The best team in the league -- and a four-time champion --
just traded a bunch of C-grade prospects for a #4 starter who would be
the ace for most teams...
...and the league greets this news with a collective yawn.
We need a drastic infusion of youthful energy in this league. Matt D.,
you couldn't have come at a better time."
-- Mike Glander, 5/8/12
Unfortunately, Matt D's
youthful energy fizzled out pretty quickly.
"I'll be honest, I'm not feeling it with this team this year. In the
past, I could see my teams advancing but I think I'm too reliant on home
runs this year. I purposely tried acquiring more athletic guys the last
few years but there was just this odd convergence of home run power this
season that I didn't expect."
-- Tom DiStefano, 5/18/12
Listening to Tom claim his
team just isn't good enough to win is like listening to Eva Longoria
claim she needs to lose a few pounds.
"Eh, don't let them get to you Greg! Glander often freaks about my
trades but they usually end up working out for the acquiring team quite
well. Derek Norris is going to be an all-star and Gyorko will be
starting in SD by the end of the year."
-- Tom DiStefano, 5/19/12
Norris is hitting a
healthy .201 in MLB this year, so his all-star status will be delayed by
at least a year. And Gyorko is still sitting by the phone, waiting
for that call. Only three weeks left, but it's going to happen...I
just know it.
"In broad strokes, it's making sure you have at least $20MM free each
year. You can still, obviously, sign Type H, but you can't go crazy with
them. DON'T sign guys to long-term contracts with maybe one exception
every 5 or 6 years (I'm still debating Bumgarner). It's hard to beat the
4-year deal for its long-term effect. Then acquire cheap, mediocre
players who you think might have breakout seasons due to trades (from
Coors, for example) who put up stats that translate well for your
stadium. I spent $7MM on two pitchers who are a combined 16-6. Can't be
too upset with that kind of investment. That's more than enough--and all
I am really willing to reveal."
-- John Duel, 5/23/12
"'All you're willing to reveal'? You realize you've had losing seasons
the last five years, right? And this year you're going AGAINST your
strategy (by actually acquiring good players) and you're in line for a
playoff spot.
Are you afraid that every team will emulate your strategy and that the
entire league will finish under .500 resulting in the demise of modern
mathematic theory?"
-- Tom DiStefano, 5/23/12
My nomination for
"Funniest Exchange of the Year."
"The Padawans ship centerfielder Peter Bourjos, shortstop Rafael Furcal
and pitcher Juan Nicasio to Niagara for Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard, and
Jake Westbrook. Both Furcal and Bourjos arrived from Allentown just
prior to the start of the season in the Elvis Andrus deal. Now they, and
Nicasio, leave Sylmar to help Niagara this year and in the future."
-- John Duel, 5/28/12
It's difficult to find
good "help" these days.
"If [Tommy] Milone doesn't end up valuable by the end of the year I'll
give you back [Josh] Willingham after I rent him for a few chapters,
hows that sound?"
-- Bobby Sylvester, 6/5/12
As of press time, Milone
is sporting a 3.88 ERA in 162+ innings, with 168 hits allowed, 31 walks
and 118 K's. Josh Willingham is sporting an OPS of almost 900,
with 33 homers in 130 games. I sure hope Greg kept his receipt.
"Have you seen Pedroia's stats so far this year in RL? Sure he can turn
it around, but it's not a great start. I'd rather have the 300 AB's of
and all star over 650 of a scrub."
-- Anthony Peburn, 6/8/12
Since Peabrain's
peabrained statement, Pedroia is hitting .300/.358/.463. Thanks
for the reverse curse.
"The only AJ Cole I can find is some guy with a 6.63 era (54 innings, 80
hits, 9 homers) in the minors. I know you couldn't have traded a good
young outfielder (Thames) and an SUS righty killer for THAT so could you
please fill us in on who exactly you got for those guys?"
-- Tom DiStefano, 6/8/12
Since Tom's peabrained
statement, Cole has posted a 2.07 ERA in 95+ innings, with a 9:1 K/BB
ratio as a 20-year-old in the Midwest League.
"We need to turn up the heat on Salem."
-- Jim Doyle, 7/26/12
Jim, I think you turned
that dial in the wrong direction, buddy.
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