September, 2012

Chapter Five Recap

John Duel had more money to spend than anyone in last winter's free agent auction, so it raised more than a few eyebrows when he spent his first $3.5 million on notorious wussy Carl Pavano on the first day of the auction, and then shelled out another $3.5 million on mediocre starter Jason Hammel on the second day.  Hammel went just 7-13 with a 4.76 ERA in MLB '11, with 175 hits allowed in 170+ innings, 21 homers allowed, and just 94 K's.  More than likely, Duel was hoping Hammel would turn into an inning-eating #4 starter with a modicum of upside given the difference in ballpark factors between Coors and Dagobah.  No one -- not even the ever-prescient Duel -- could have imagined that Hammel would become an ace.  Hammel earned our Chapter Five Pitcher of the Chapter award after leading the OL in ERA (0.54) in Chapter Five, and ranking among the top three in opponents average (.157), on-base percentage (.213) and slugging percentage (.182).  For the season, he is 14-6 with a sparkling 2.84 ERA in 158+ innings.  Go figure.

A polar-opposite of Hammel, Jered Weaver was expected to be a Cy Young candidate in the BDBL this season.  Yet, for a bona-fide ace, Weaver sure made the rounds this winter.  He began the winter on the Great Lakes roster, where he had just carried the team to its first-ever playoffs appearance.  In a trade that now looks a bit lopsided, he was sent to St. Louis, along with Cliff Lee and David Wright, in exchange for Gio Gonzalez, Yonder Alonso, Zack Greinke and Franklin Morales.

Then, before Opening Day even began, Weaver was flipped by serial flipper Bobby Sylvester to Chicago as part of a giant-mega-ultra-blockbuster NINE-player trade that involved Justin Upton and Weaver going to Chicago in exchange for Pablo Sandoval and Curtis Granderson (among many others.)

Weaver (19-2, 3.14 ERA on the season) has been nothing short of brilliant, and is our EL Pitcher of the Chapter.  During Chicago's Chapter Five surge to the top of the division, Weaver went 4-0 with a 2.28 ERA, and held opponents to a .185/.222/.286 average.

When Kansas GM Chris Luhning shelled out $11 million for Jose Bautista in the 2011 auction, the general consensus at the time was that Bautista would be a tremendous bargain in the 2011 season, but his $22 million in salary in 2012 and 2013 would be an albatross around the franchise's neck.  Well...the consensus was wrong.  Bautista was a monster in 2011, and he's just as much of a monster in 2012.  He is currently leading the EL in OBP (.440), home runs (41), walks (110), runs created (131.9) and OBP (1.053).  And after hitting .378/.500/.704 in Chapter Five, he is an easy choice for our EL Hitter of the Chapter award.

When the Cowtippers traded Matt Kemp prior to Chapter Four, the league erupted in howling protest over how I was apparently throwing in the towel on a team that was in contention for a playoffs spot.  My response at the time was that I was not waving the white flag, but taking advantage of a little "arbitrage", and strengthening both my current AND future teams.  One of the ways in which I strengthened my current (and future) team despite the trade of Kemp was the addition of Dustin Pedroia, our OL Hitter of the Chapter.  Pedroia led the league in hitting (.381) in Chapter Five, and also ranked among the top ten in OBP (.440) and SLG (.590).  He also ranked among the top four in hits (40), runs scored (22), RBI's (22) and runs created (27.3).

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Chicago Takes the Lead

It seems like I write about the Black Sox on this page every chapter, so why break with tradition?  Here is what John Gill wrote back on February 27th:

"I'm seriously thinking about quitting this.  One bad series is fine.  I have had three bad offensive showings.  Through 12 games, Cabrera is barely batting over .100.  I believe that I have scored over 4 runs in a game one time.  My home park is hitter friendly.  Very, very frustrating and disappointing."

Less than a week later, Chicago took three out of four from the Allentown Ridgebacks, and it appeared as though their fluky streak of futility was over.  But then, four days later, Gill reported that he had been swept at home by the lowly Atlanta Fire Ants.  At the end of the first chapter of play, the Black Sox sported a record of 11-17, which put them 11 games out of first place, thanks to the red-hot start by the Akron Ryche (22-6.) Chicago was hitting just .252/.307/.370 as a team.  Slugger Miguel Cabrera was hitting just .229/.300/.324, and Justin Upton wasn't performing much better at .245/.304/.333.  Combined, the two all-stars had just two home runs (both from Cabrera.)

Those of us with an appreciation of BDBL history can't help but feel as though we've seen this movie before.  Back in 2004, Chicago went into the season stacked with talent, and were heavily favored to win their division.  But one chapter into the season the Black Sox found themselves miles behind the eight ball, with a record of 4-28 and a 12-game deficit behind the first-place Ryche.

The Black Sox quickly righted the ship in '04, went 94-38 (.712) the rest of the way and easily won their division by six games.  Well, evidently John Gill thought it was so much fun the first time that he decided to replicate that magical season in 2012.  Since that disastrous first chapter, the Black Sox have gone 74-30.  Want to guess what that winning percentage is?  Yep.  .712.  You can't make this stuff up.

Chicago not only sports the best record in the BDBL (by four games) since Chapter One, but they have also outscored their opponents by 187 runs during that time (3 more than Allentown.)  Miguel Cabrera is hitting .334/.404/.579 since that disastrous first chapter, and Upton is hitting a nifty .288/.353/.518 during that time.  Once again, all is right with the world.

Story #2: Allentown's Pitching

Coming into this season, all the talk surrounding the Allentown Ridgebacks centered upon their five-headed monster in the outfield.  With a lineup that included reigning NL MVP Ryan Braun, slugger Giancarlo "You Can Call Me Ray-Jay" Stanton and an oddly bulked-up Jacoby Ellsbury, it was easy to forget that Allentown's pitching was just as impressive.  In fact, the Allentown staff's quiet dominance was so underreported that it wasn't until recently that we discovered that the Ridgebacks are currently on pace to shatter the BDBL's all-time single season ERA record.  Allentown currently sports an ERA of just 2.99, while the record, set by Ravenswood in 2010, stands at 3.10.

The scary thing about Allentown's performance this season is that despite owning the best record in the Eck League by three games, they are actually performing FIVE games below their Pythagorean record.  Perhaps as a function of Tom's unwillingness to manage his own team, Allentown is just 26-15 in one-run games, which is the main contributing factor to that Pythagorean difference.  Once Tom begins managing his own games in the post-season, it stands to reason that Allentown will be even more formidable than they are now.  Hey, best of luck with that, Eck Leaguers.

Story #3: St. Louis Runs Away With It

It's always touching to see a father make a sacrifice for his son, but when Bob Sylvester waved the white flag on his first-place team last chapter, allowing his son Bobby to run away with the division, it left a sour aftertaste.

The SoCal Slyme and St. Louis Apostles came into this past chapter tied atop the Person Division.  On paper, the Apostles were supposed to be the better team.  But on the field, SoCal was the more dominant team, outscoring their opponents by 49 runs, compared to just 33 runs for St. Louis.  But through a series of unfortunate trades, the elder Sylvester completely strip-mined his team prior to Chapter Five, dealing away Paul Konerko, Josh Johnson, Daniel Bard, Jeff Francoeuer, Zack Greinke and Vladimir Guerrero, among others.  Making matters worse, Konerko, Johnson, Bard and Francoeuer were sent to the team he was tied with atop the Person Division!

It was easy to predict what would happen next.  St. Louis thrived with their new additions, going 18-10 last chapter, while SoCal floundered with a record of 12-16.  Interestingly enough, the Apostles outscored their opponents by more runs (39) than the Allentown Ridgebacks (36).  St. Louis is now very well situated for the playoffs.  New addition Mike Morse is loving his new home, batting .341/.391/.649 with 16 homers in just 49 games since his acquisition.  Michael Young (.315/.365/.442), Pablo Sandoval (.304/.338/.553) and Andre Ethier (.302/.383/.449) continue to crush the ball.  Konerko (.293/.345/.525) is also loving his new environment.  And Curtis Granderson (.255/.361/.490) leads the team in homers, runs scored, RBI's, walks, stolen bases and runs created.

On the pitching side, newcomers Johnson, Bard and Rafael Betancourt have allowed just 2 earned runs in more than 21 innings, and Betancourt has already notched 9 saves in 9 innings.  His arrival pushes former closer Fernando Salas (1.76 ERA in 56+ IP) into a setup role, giving St. Louis the deepest bullpen in the BDBL.

The Great Phil Humber (10-7, 3.03 ERA) is the ace of this staff, although Gavin Floyd (4-1, 2.79 in 67+ IP) has been phenomenal since his acquisition.  Scott Baker (9-4, 4.13 ERA in 126+ IP) has been solid, and Dan Haren (9-14, 4.49 ERA) has been a major disappointment.  If push came to shove, another newcomer, Josh Collmenter (4-3, 4.21 ERA in 62 IP) could take one of the four spots in the playoffs rotation.

Regardless of how they get there, the Apostles will be set up well to make some noise and cause some trouble in the post-season.

Story #4: Can Jim Doyle Finally Finish at .500?

It is the longest streak in BDBL history, both for a franchise and an owner: 12 straight years with a sub-.500 record.  In Chapter Six, fans will flock to "The Polo Grounds" in Manchester, New Hampshire, modeled to look exactly like a ballpark in San Francisco, California, to watch a team named after an old team in New York that used to be named for an older team in Kansas City that used to be named for a fictitious team in Manchester named after a college football team located in Indiana.  They will come to root for this year's team to finish with a record of at least 16-12 in their final 28 games and finally bury the ghosts of the franchise's past.

They will come to Manchester for reasons they can't even fathom.  They'll turn into the Giants parking lot not knowing for sure why they're doing it.  They'll arrive at the ticket office as innocent as children, longing for that elusive .500 season.  Of course, we won't mind if you look around, you'll say.  It's only $20 per person.  They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it; for it is money they have and peace they lack.  And they'll walk out to the bleachers, sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon.  They'll find they have reserved seats somewhere along one of the baselines, where they sat when they were children, back when this franchise last finished above .500, and cheered their heroes.

And they'll watch the game and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters.  The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces.  People will come, Jim.  The one constant through all the years, Jim, has been your franchise finishing below .500.  America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers.  It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again.  But your franchise finishing below .500 has marked the time.  This record, this game: it's a part of our past.  It reminds us of all that once was less than mediocre, and may be again.  Oh...people will come, Jim.  People will most definitely come.

Story #5: Akron's Collapse

Last month I poked a little fun at Akron GM DJ Shepard for hardly ever making any trades.  But to his credit, he added two major arms (Zack Greinke and Hiroki Kuroda) to the Eck League arms race in his effort to slow down the hard-charging Black Sox.  Akron came into the last chapter ahead by three games in the division, but Chicago was -- by far -- the hottest team in the BDBL.

Instead of keeping pace with Chicago during the final chapter, the Ryche collapsed under the pressure, going just 12-16 -- the worst record in the division.  Making matters worse, three of those losses came at the hands of Chicago.  Unfortunately, Akron's two major new acquisitions were major duds.  Kuroda went just 2-3 in 5 starts, with a 4.04 ERA, and Greinke was horrendous in 6 starts, going 1-4 with a 7.52 ERA.

Incredibly, Akron went from 3 game ahead in the division to 6 games back.  And unfortunately for them, the Kansas Law Dogs enjoyed another fantastic chapter, so that puts the Ryche 5 games behind in the wild card race as well.  At this point, Akron needs to win at least 18 games in Chapter Six and hope for a complete collapse of either the Law Dogs or Black Sox.  This doesn't seem likely.  Which is a shame for a team that currently owns a winning percentage two points below .600.  Akron deserves better.

Story #6: Mississippi Burning (Hot)

I think most of us expected the Benes Division race to be a tight one.  18 people voted in the pre-season Benes Division poll.  8 voted for Ravenswood to win the division, 5 for Mississippi, 3 for Las Vegas and 2 for New York.  It was the only division in the BDBL where all four teams received at least one vote.

Yet, here we stand with just one chapter remaining, and the Meatballs own the second-best record in the Ozzie League and a 19-game lead in the division.  Here are just a few reasons why there was such a disconnect:

• Jonny Gomes hit just .209 in MLB '11, but he's hitting .331/.438/.466 in the BDBL in 148 (mostly clutch pinch hit) at-bats.
• Troy Tulowitzki hit .302/.372/.544 in the low-gravity environment of Coors Field, yet he's hitting even better (.315/.383/.577) in Mississippi.  Tulo hit 30 homers in 143 games in MLB, but has already reached that total in 130 games for the Meatballs.
• Jorge Posada hit .235/.315/.398 in the hitter's haven of Yankee Stadium, but he's hitting .282/.365/.441 for the Meatballs this season.
• Jake Peavy posted a 4.92 ERA in MLB '11, but is sporting a team-best 3.60 ERA in Mississippi.  (Unfortunately for the Meatballs, he has reached his usage limit.)
• Brandon Morrow posted a 4.72 ERA in MLB '11, but is at 3.99 in the BDBL.  He, too, is near his usage limit.
• Ricky Romero, who is Morrow's MLB teammate, posted a 2.92 ERA in MLB, but is sporting an ERA of 4.20 in the BDBL.  Go figure.

Mississippi's #4 starter, Kyle McClellan, is also near his usage limit for the season, which leaves only Erik Bedard, Romero and Jaime Garcia as possible starters in Chapter Six.  I have no idea how that will shake out.  Of course, with a magic number of 10 and a full chapter left to play, it hardly matters.

Story #7: Salem Turns It Around

One chapter ago, the Salem Cowtippers appeared to be in big trouble.  They went just 7-17 in Chapter Four -- tied with the lowly Granite State Lightning for the worst record in the division.  At the end of the chapter, they stood with a record two games below .500 (51-53), and two games behind the wild card leading (and divisional rival) Corona Confederates.

What a difference a chapter makes.  In Chapter Five, the Ravenswood Infidels (who were a game ahead of Salem in the wild card race) went just 12-16, and the Confederates wrapped up the chapter with a record of 14-14.  Meanwhile, the Cowtippers completely turned their season around with a 19-9 showing -- tied for the best record in the Ozzie League.

Hitter of the Chapter Dustin Pedroia (.381/.440/.590 in Chapter 5) was a big part of that surge.  Juan Rivera (.459/.474/.811), Bobby Abreu (.375/.425/.500), Melky Cabrera (.314/.349/.488), Jose Reyes (.308/.344/.442), Ryan Zimmerman (.304/.360/.551) and B.J. Upton (.280/.375/.600) also played major roles.

On the pitching side, new additions Dan Hudson (4-1, 3.50 ERA) and Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 2.28 ERA) have been brilliant in replacement of Colby Lewis and Ubaldo Jimenez.  Sean Marshall (1.59 ERA in 17 IP) has more than picked up the slack for Rafael Betancourt, and the rest of the Salem bullpen was stellar in Chapter Five.

The Cowtippers have the potential to play the role of spoilers in the BDBL playoffs.  They are 6-6 against the Blazers this season, and 5-3 against the Padawans, but just 3-9 against the Meatballs.  A few well-placed hits here and there, and the Cowtippers could cause some trouble.  With absolutely nothing to lose, I will enjoy playing this role.