August, 2013

Chapter Four Recap

Players of the Chapter

It's difficult to believe it now, but not so long ago, David Wright was an expensive liability.  After hitting just .254/.345/.427 with just 14 home runs in the 2011 MLB season, there were some who believed he was washed up at age 28.  He appeared destined to join Eric Chavez, Troy Glaus, Sean Burroughs and several other third basemen in recent memory who burst onto the scene and an early age, only to flame out spectacularly in their late 20's.  For that reason, Wright bounced around from team to team in the winter of 2012.  First, he was included as a salary dump in a huge six-player deal with the St. Louis Apostles that brought both Cliff Lee and Jered Weaver to St. Louis.  Of course, Bobby being Bobby, he then immediately flipped Wright and his bloated salary to his buddy Nic, throwing in Travis Snider for the trouble.

When Wright bounced back to have an outstanding MLB season in 2012, Bobby ran back to Nic with hat in hand, asking for a do-over.  And Nic, who was in the midst of a bizarre rebuilding process, was only too happy to deliver the superstar to Bobby's door, dealing not only Wright, but Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Morneau as well, and getting three prospects and Michael Young in return.  This past chapter, Wright hit .411/.472/.653 for the Apostles, earning the EL Hitter of the Chapter award.

Over in the Ozzie League, the Granite State Lightning made some noise this past chapter, (briefly) leaping ahead of the Salem Cowtippers in the division and crawling to within one game of the wild card lead.  Much of that success was owed to the performance of Josh Willingham, who hit .323/.404/.688 with 10 homers and a league-leading 27.5 runs created in Chapter Four.  In the midst of Granite State's 120-loss season in 2012, GM Ryan Glander acquired Willingham in a trade with the (who else?) St. Louis Apostles.  It was the only trade he made that year where he dealt prospects in exchange for an established veteran.

The BDBL Farm Draft always provides an interesting spectrum of strategies, and one in particular involves drafting a Japanese superstar with the hope that he will someday make the leap across the Pacific.  It can often be a risky gamble, as many Japanese superstars choose to stay home, but it can be very rewarding when that gamble pays off.  Such was the case when Bob Sylvester boldly selected Yu Darvish with his first pick (18th overall) in the 2008 Farm Draft.  He then patiently waited four years for Darvish to make that leap to the US, and then another year for Darvish to finally appear on the disk.  And when that day finally arrived...Sylvester traded him to the Cuenca Strangegloves.

It was a pretty good deal for Sylvester, as he received Andrew McCutchen and Dan Straily in return.  But for one chapter, at least, Darvish held up his end of the bargain.  This past chapter, he led the Eck League in lowest ERA (1.84), average (.157), OBP (.223) and slugging (.255), easily winning the Pitcher of the Chapter honor.

His OL counterpart also led his league in all four of those categories.  And believe it or not, that pitcher's name is Jeff Karstens.  Seriously.  You can look it up.  The apparent "ace" of the "New York Giants" led the OL in ERA (1.05), average (.151), OBP (.194) and slugging (.209) in Chapter Four.  And yet, somehow, the actual NL Cy Young winner was a total bum.  Go figure.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Granite State Revival

The Granite State Lightning were supposed to contend for a division title this season, and yet through the first half of the season they were merely a .500 team, and had been outscored by 34 runs.  And through their first 14 games of the second half, they found themselves on the wrong side of .500, looking up at two other teams in their division.

But then suddenly a switch was flipped, and the Lightning reeled off 10 wins in a row to close out the chapter.  That gave them a 15-9 record in the second half (second only to the ridiculous New Milford Blazers) and launched them into second place in the Butler Division, and only one game out of the OL wild card lead.

Offensively, the similarities between the Lightning and the Salem Cowtippers are pretty remarkable:

There is a stark difference, however, between the pitching performances for these two teams, and that is where the Lightning really stepped up last chapter.  In particular, Mike Fiers (1.80 ERA in 30 IP), Lucas Harrell (2.48 in 29 IP), James McDonald (3.57 in 22+ IP) and relievers Raul Valdes (0.82 in 11 IP) and Jim Miller (1.54 in 11+ IP) delivered very strong performances.  Imagine a starting pitcher with the following numbers over a full season: 212 IP, 198 H, 21 HR, 72 BB, 201 K, 3.95 ERA.  Those were the numbers for the Lightning pitching staff in Chapter Four.

The question is whether they can continue that strong performance for another two chapters.  With 16 games remaining against the Blazers and Cowtippers, this team controls its own fate.

Story #2: Mike Trout: Best $100,000 Hitter Ever?

In case you've missed it, Mike Trout is having an outstanding rookie season in the BDBL.  He is hitting .321/.393/.552 with 14 doubles, 11 triples, 19 homers, 23 stolen bases and 90.1 runs created.  That puts him on pace for 138.6 runs created this season -- all for only $100,000 in salary.  And that made me wonder whether he is the greatest minimum-wage hitter in BDBL history.  Surprisingly, the answer to that question is that he isn't even among the top 10:

Yes, that is little Dustin Pedroia at the top of that list, ahead of the great Albert Pujols.  It is difficult to imagine the diminutive "Petey" slugging 36 homers in a season, and yet that actually happened back in 2009.  It was one of the more inexplicable seasons in league history, as he had hit only 17 homers in the previous MLB season.  But Fenway happened to be brutal for right-handers that season, and Bobby Sylvester had custom-tailored his home ballpark with a RH HR factor of 126.  The result: an MVP performance for Pedroia, and a division title for the Apostles.

Sylvester is brilliant/fortunate enough to own the top two players on this list, as Pujols simply dominated the league in his sophomore year of 2003, carrying the awesomely-named Wapakoneta Hippos to their first division crown.  The following season, Pujols had the greatest season in BDBL history by any player with a $1.6 million salary (or perhaps any salary for that matter), hitting .396/.481/.733 with 48 homers and 211.7 runs created.

It's interesting to see that Corona owned both of the next two players on this list.  And it is also interesting to note the presence of not one, but TWO, 30-year-olds.  You wouldn't think that an established veteran who performed so well would come so cheaply, yet there they are: Jack Cust and Carlos Pena.

Just for kicks, I took a look at the opposite group: players who are way more expensive than their performances would indicate.  For this group, I calculated the cost per run created, resulting in the following list:

Not surprisingly, these are all players who were injured during the previous MLB season, but who were signed to long-term contracts that made it too expensive to cut them.  Looking back at this list, it's difficult to remember a time when these players were ever worth their lofty salaries.  I mean...Rocco Baldelli for $3 million??

Story #3: New Milford STILL Inexplicably Dominant

I am going to continue writing about the ridiculously nonsensical performance of the over-achieving Blazers until they finally show some regression and begin to even slightly resemble their real-life counterparts.  Yet again, New Milford owned the best record in the league in Chapter Four, and they now own the identical record (71-33, .683) this year that they owned last year at this point in the season.  In fact, their runs differential (217 this year vs. 214 last) is nearly identical as well.

How the F can this be??

Everyone expected the Blazers to dominate last year.  The starting rotation featured the one-two punch of Clayton Kershaw and free agent signing C.J. Wilson -- both legitimate Cy Young contenders capable of starting 40 games apiece.  And their offense featured three legitimate MVP candidates in Adrian Gonzalez, Robinson Cano and David Ortiz, as well as all-stars Alex Avila and Shane Victorino.

But in MLB last year, Wilson wasn't nearly as dominant as he had been the year before.  Cano (646 OPS vs. LH) had become a liability against left-handers.  Avila (539 vs. LH) was even worse.  Ortiz (383 PA's) missed half the season to injury.  And Gonzalez and Victorino were nowhere near as good as the year before.  Put it all together, and it seemed reasonable to expect that New Milford would not be as dominant this year as they were last year.

I could spend another FTDOTC article exploring all of the various ways in which this team's performance is both unexpected and illogical, but instead I'll simply focus on just one stat: balls-in-play average.

The league-wide average on balls-in-play seems to settle at right around .300 year in and year out.  It's one of those weird averages (like SB%, strike/ball ratio or HR/FB ratio) that is so consistent year after year that you can bank on it with confidence.  And, true to form, the BDBL league-wide BIP average after four chapters of play is exactly .300.

New Milford's BIP average, however, is .330.

Obviously, this is 30 points above league average, and this rate easily tops the entire BDBL, topping the next-best average by 7 comfortable points.  A quick check of the stats shows that New Milford's batters posted a .301 average on balls in play in MLB, so they weren't unusually gifted in reaching base on balls in play in real life.  So why have the Blazers enjoyed so much more simulated success?  Are they just hitting more simulated seeing-eye singles?  Are they facing defenses with unusually terrible range?

There doesn't seem to be any obvious and logical explanation, but there is no doubt whatsoever that this average has had a major impact on New Milford's #1 rank in runs scored this season.  The Blazers have put 2,788 balls in play this season, and 920 of them have resulted in a hit.  If we reduce New Milford's BIP average to the league average, that would result in 84 FEWER HITS.  84 extra, unexplainable hits in 104 games.  Think about that.

Then, there is the other side of the coin.  I will give you one guess which team leads the entire BDBL in allowing the lowest BIP average defensively.  Yep, you guessed it.  New Milford's BIP average of just .269 is 31 points below league average, and easily tops the league by 4 points over the next lowest average.

This stat, however, is a little easier to explain.  For starters, New Milford's pitchers seemed to display some ability to maintain a low BIP average in MLB, as they averaged .278 as a team.  And New Milford's defense includes several players with above-average range, including several Ex-rated defenders.  So New Milford's unusually low BIP average on defense is quite a bit easier to understand and explain.

84 extra, unexplainable hits on offense, plus 84 extra, semi-explainable fewer hits on defense, and you have a recipe for dominance.  You would think that maintaining such an unlikely and unexplainable rate would be impossible, and the result of pure, random luck.  And yet...

2012 Blazers
BIP average (offense): .334 (ranked #1 out of 24)
BIP average (defense): .285 (ranked #5 out of 24)

Apparently, Anthony Peburn is an evil genius.  And here I thought he was just evil.

Story #4: That Weird Pujols Trade

The only unsurprising aspect of the Albert Pujols-for-Matt Garza trade was that Jim Doyle was involved.  At the finale of the most boring Chapter Five trading deadline in league history, Jim Doyle inexplicably traded Matt Garza to the Corona Confederates in exchange for Albert Pujols.

Pujols doesn't do much for Doyle's New York Giants this season, since his team has been out of contention since Opening Day, and Pujols is a free agent at the end of the season.  And Garza doesn't do much for the Confederates, as they, too, have been out of contention since Opening Day, and Garza is owed a ton of money ($7.6 million next year, $9.1 million in 2015) over the next two years, while delivering just a little more than half a season next year due to injuries.

I suppose on that level the trade made a little bit of sense for New York, as they managed to unload a bit of salary.  Unfortunately for Giants fans, even after adding $7.6 million to their payroll in 2014, the team still has no prayer whatsoever of competing.  But I suppose every penny counts.

Story #5: The DiStefano Rule: Benefit or Buzzkill?

As long as we're on the topic of the most boring final trading deadline in league history...

Has the DiStefano VORP Rule sapped all the fun out of the league?  Or is it just what this league has been missing for more than a dozen years?

The league (or at least those who participate on the forum) seems split down the middle on this issue.  On one side, it is argued that the DiStefano Rule makes the league a lot less fun and exciting, makes it very difficult for teams to rebuild, and reduces the potential pool of trading partners in the final chapter, which ensures that more lopsided trades will be made.

On the other side, advocates argue that the rule has made the league far more realistic, and it has ended (or at least minimized) the traditional role of "superteams", and has greatly reduced the possibility of a rebuilding team destroying the competitive balance of the league and ruining all the fun of the competition in the second half.

As with many of our league rules, there is a trade-off involved between "fun" and "realism", and competitive balance vs. free market principles.  In the end, we are forced to concede that, although we have always strived to build a league that is as true-to-life as possible, we play our games on a computer-simulated field.  And as difficult as it may be to swallow, our jobs as GM's are profoundly different than a MLB GM's.  Unfortunately, no set of rules of which we could ever conceive would ever change those harsh realities.  So we have no choice but to adopt some rules that may be less than "realistic" or "ideal."

For better or worse, the DiStefano Rule is here to stay.  Unlike many of the rules we have experimented with in recent years, this rule has been effective in changing the game in the way in which we intended it to change.  And although it has limited the amount of "fun" we can have at the trade table, there is still more than enough room for fun, and more than enough reasons to continue enjoying this hobby for what it is.

Story #6: The A-Rod Saga

Every once in a while, a top story in the BDBL originates outside of the BDBL.  Such is the case with the current soap opera surrounding Alex Rodriguez.  As we all know, A-Rod has been out all season with an injured hip, and is still rehabbing in the minor leagues.  His MLB team seems to be doing everything in their power to keep him off the field and wriggle out of a contract that was a burdensome and expensive mistake the moment he signed it.  And it looks as though they just might get their wish, as the MLB Powers That Be are reportedly on the verge of handing A-Rod a lifetime ban for his involvement in the Biogenesis steroids scandal.  Although he will undoubtedly appeal this decision, it now seems more than likely that he will not play a single game in the 2013 MLB season.

What all of this means from a BDBL perspective is that Matt Clemm will likely wriggle out from under a burdensome and expensive mistake of his own.  For those who are new to the league, the origin of this particular BDBL legend began in the winter of 2010, when Sylmar Padawans GM John Duel signed Rodriguez to a $14 million salary, which completely contradicted his oft-repeated (ad-nauseum) strategy of never signing any player to a salary of more than $5 million.  As we had just passed a new rule stating that any player signed to "Type H" salary must be signed to a contract of no fewer than two years, this meant that Duel was on the hook for a minimum of $42 million over three years.

That summer, both Duel and Clemm attended BDBL Weekend in Denver.  During one fateful night, Clemm made the comment that he wouldn't mind having A-Rod return to the franchise where he had been originally drafted, and where he had remained for 10 years.  As A-Rod was having a rather ordinary MLB season at that point, and as Duel was desperate to unload the $28 million he still owed, he asked what Clemm would be willing to trade for the aging superstar.  And when Clemm responded by offering Madison Bumgarner -- a 20-year-old rookie ace with a $100,000 salary, who just happened to pitch for Duel's (and Clemm's!) favorite MLB team -- Duel could not accept the deal quickly enough.  In fact, he asked one of the attendees to video record the handshake to make it official.

By league rules, A-Rod was not allowed to be traded until the end of the season, so as soon as the season ended, Duel reconnected with Clemm to ensure that their trade was still official.  And that is when Clemm compounded his mistake by making an even more colossal mistake: he directed Duel to sign Rodriguez to a 10-YEAR, $140 MILLION contract.  This contract ensured that A-Rod would remain a member of the Jamboree through age 44.  It also ensured that the Jamboree would not be competitive until the 2021 season.

If Rodriguez is suspended for the season, this would immediately give the Jamboree an extra $14 million to spend next season.  As if that weren't enough of a bonus, the club is also loaded with talent in 2014 -- especially on the mound:

Matt Harvey ($100K): 145 IP, 99 H, 7 HR, 29 BB, 164 K, 2.11 ERA
Patrick Corbin ($100K): 144 IP, 107 H, 9 HR, 36 BB, 123 K, 2.24 ERA
Hisashi Iwakuma ($2MM): 150 IP, 122 H, 21 HR, 24 BB, 133 K, 2.76 ERA
Chris Archer ($100K): 68 IP, 46 H, 5 HR, 25 BB, 47 K, 2.39 ERA
Lance Lynn ($100K): 135 IP, 120 H, 7 HR, 50 BB, 129 K, 3.87 ERA
Wade Miley ($100K): 135 IP, 134 H, 16 HR, 47 BB, 101 K, 3.68 ERA
Ricky Nolasco ($2.5MM): 135 IP, 134 H, 12 HR, 34 BB, 106 K, 3.72 ERA

That is a top-notch, seven-man starting rotation, all the cost of $5 million, total.

The Jamboree don't have much offensively for 2014, aside from Marlon Byrd and the amazing Yasiel Puig.  But with an extra $14 million to spend, and at least two cheap, quality starting pitchers to use as trade bait, that is a problem that is easily solved.  Things are finally looking up for this beleaguered franchise.