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Commish

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January, 2013

2013 Draft Day Preview

We like Draft Day so much, we decided to make a month out of it.

How does this year's auction class compare to others?

We've been saying for a couple of years now that the Class of 2013 is among the strongest we've ever had.  But VORP disagrees with that assessment:

2003: 2006.9
2004: 2210.3
2005: 2155.9
2006: 1903.2
2007: 1858.0
2008: 1522.4
2009: 1239.8
2010: 1475.4
2011: 1230.1
2012: 995.3
2013: 947.0

On the offensive side, this class is led by a pair of talented third basemen: Adrian Beltre (.321/.359/.561, with 737/985 splits) and Chase Headley (.286/.376/.498, 801/906 splits.)  Both are likely to get Type H deals, and due to position scarcity and the teams that are in need of filling that position, both may fetch eight digits.

Aside from those two, there is no classic "impact" bat in this year's auction, but there are several players who would be tremendous contributors to any lineup, including Ben Zobrist (.270/.377/.471), Matt Holliday (.295/.379/.497), Torii Hunter (.313/.365/.451), Derek Jeter (.316/.362/.429), Corey Hart (.270/.334/.507), Jason Kubel (.253/.327/.506), A.J. Pierzynski (.278/.326/.501) and Carlos Beltran (.269/.346/.495).

The greatest strength of this auction class is its starting pitching.  Again, while there is no outstanding impact ace among this group, there are several pitchers who would contribute quite nicely to any rotation, including Zack Greinke (212+ IP, 3.17 CERA), Jake Peavy (219 IP, 3.07 CERA), Ryan Dempster (173 IP, 3.23 CERA), Anibal Sanchez (195+ IP, 3.70 CERA) and Hiroki Kuroda (219+ IP, 3.35 CERA).

There are also a number of players in this year's auction who may have only limited value this year, but have significant upside potential for the years to come, including Roy Halladay, B.J. Upton, Brandon Morrow, Jacoby Ellsbury, Rickie Weeks, Dan Haren, Gavin Floyd and Michael Morse.

The dearth of impact players in this year's auction class is plainly evident by comparing the total VORP of the top ten players only:

2003: 729.6
2004: 680.8
2005: 762.0
2006: 621.8
2007: 654.2
2008: 579.5
2009: 524.4
2010: 582.9
2011: 488.3
2012: 415.6
2013: 373.5

What about the draft class?

Beyond the top 50, there aren't many hitters available with significant value this year.  Of the remaining group, only Kendrys Morales (.273/.320/.467) and Juan Pierre (.307/.351/.371) stand out among the everyday players, with the usual scattering of platoon players available as well.

On the pitching side, the biggest name out there is Fernando Rodney, whose numbers (74+ IP, 0.60 ERA, 435/394 splits) were among the best in baseball, yet not good enough to warrant a spot in our top 50.  Grant Balfour (74+ IP, 2.53 ERA), Mitchell Boggs (73+ IP, 2.21 ERA), Ronald Belisario (71 IP, 2.54 ERA) and Jason Motte (72 IP, 2.75 ERA) also provide some 2013 value out of the bullpen.  In terms of starting pitching, however, if you need a decent starter and you leave the auction without one, you will be S.O.L..

How much money is out there this year?

Thanks in part to two new owners coming into the league, there is a lot of money out there to be spent this year, which will undoubtedly lead to some price inflation in the auction.  The total of $511.8 million and $1.75 million per player is the highest in the past four years:

Year Total cash available # of free agents needed Cash per player $ spent in auction
2003 $557.1m 360 $1.55m $328.5m (59%)
2004 $606.2m 343 $1.77m $363.5m (60%)
2005 $498.2m 292 $1.71m $318m (64%)
2006 $621.3m 327 $1.90m $341.5m (55%)
2007 $569.0m 296 $1.92m $364.5m (64%)
2008 $595.5m 320 $1.86m $324.0m (54%)
2009 $543.3m 292 $1.86m $289.5m (53%)
2010 $417.5m 261 $1.60m $289.5m (69%)
2011 $472.9m 295 $1.60m $269.0m (57%)
2012 $361.0m 267 $1.35m $214.5m (59%)
2013 $511.8m 293 $1.75m TBD

Which teams will be spending all this money?

Chris Luhning spent all winter frantically shedding salary, so it stands to reason that he has a TON of money to spend this winter: $47.1 million to be exact.  It also stands to reason that our "defending champions", the Dieppe Marauders, have a ton of money to spend, since new ownership took over and wiped away all of John Duel's horrendous contacts.  With $48.5 million in spending money, Dieppe leads the league in that category.  Both Kansas and Dieppe have a lot of holes (20 each) to fill, though, so they'll need every penny of that cash.

The Ravenswood Infidels ($39.8 million) also have a ton of cash to spend this winter, but have 18 spots to fill on their roster, giving them an average of $2.2 million per player -- less than Dieppe and Kansas (at $2.4 million each.)  The league leader in that category is South Carolina, who has $31.9 million to spend on just 8 spots -- an average of $4.0 million per player.

On the flip side of the coin, Great Lakes ($1.2 million for 7 spots) and Flagstaff ($1.1 million for 7 spots) can basically just take the first few weeks of January off.  We won't see either one until the late rounds of the draft.  Granite State had a ton of spending cash at one point, but after their last trade, they're left with just $8.8 million to spend on 8 spots.  Despite taking over a team that didn't have a single bad contract, the Cuenca Strangegloves have just $9.5 million to spend on 7 players this winter.  And the Cleveland Rocks ($11.6 million for 12 players) and Corona Confederates ($11.9 million for 12 players) are likely relegated to bargain-basement shopping in the auction.

How does the Class of 2014 look at this point?

The pitching class is rather yawn-inspiring at this point, though Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Josh Beckett, Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, Shaun Marcum, Max Scherzer, Adam Wainwright and Cliff Lee form a pretty decent group.

The hitting side is much more exciting, as Albert Pujols will become a free agent for the first time in his BDBL career, and the class also includes Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson, Paul Konerko, Jose Bautista, Adam Dunn, Nick Swisher, Chase Utley, Billy Butler, Robinson Cano, Adrian Gonzalez, Yadier Molina, Jose Reyes, Ryan Zimmerman and Edwin Encarnacion.