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slant.gif (102 bytes) From the Desk of the Commish

Commish

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May, 2013

Chapter Two Recap

Players of the Chapter

When the Salem Cowtippers acquired Yadier Molina during the Granite State Lightning's Great Purge of 2012, the league howled in protest.  Yet, despite all the howling, Molina was a bit of a disappointment for Salem last year, batting just .290/.331/.461 with 72.8 runs created.  He continued to be a disappointment in Chapter One, batting just .298/.297/.433 with a 2/17 BB/K ratio, and for a moment it looked as though his days in Salem were numbered.  But the all-star catcher really turned things around in Chapter Two, batting .367/.426/.651 with 8 HR and 21 RBI's, earning the OL Hitter of the Chapter award.

Sticking with this theme, the catcher for the Atlanta Fire Ants, Carlos Ruiz, was also supposed to be an impact player for a playoffs-contending team this season.  But like Molina, Ruiz was a bit of a disappointment in Chapter One, batting .275/.351/.382 with no home runs.  And like the Cowtippers, the Fire Ants also got off to a slow start.  But Ruiz picked up the slack in Chapter Two, leading the EL in batting (.398) and OBP (.462), slugging .559, and creating 24.3 runs (second to only Cleveland's Torii Hunter.)

Akron's Justin Verlander (5-0, 1.29 ERA in Chapter Two, with 61 K's and a .195/.250/.290 batting line against) is the EL Pitcher of the Chapter.  'Nuff said.  And in the Ozzie League, the OL POC award goes to someone named Jose Quintana (2.35 ERA, .171/.207/.279), who is the #6 pitcher for the Blazers.  It seems as though the Baseball Gods have run out of ways to reward the Blazers with ridiculous good fortune.

Top Ten Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: The Spastic Swapper Strikes Again

After making 13 trades involving 63 players in the offseason, you would think that Bobby Sylvester had gotten it all out of his system.  But it seems there is no end to the constant tweaking and tinkering he feels is necessary.  We haven't seen such uncontrollable futzing since the days when Ken "Sharky" Kaminski patrolled the trade waters with his beady black eyes, scanning the depths for his next victim.

In the final days of the chapter, Sylvester added five more trades to his season's tally, involving 30 players.  Let's boil it all down:

Traded Acquired
Manny Machado Manny Machado
Brad Peacock Brad Peacock
Justin Morneau Pablo Sandoval
Joe Mauer Jordan Pacheco
Kyle Seager Chris Carter
Darren Oliver Brett Gardner
Delmon Young Tyler Pastornicky
Mariano Rivera Robbie Ross
Brad Boxberger Travis Hafner
Daniel Bard Evan Gattis
Dee Gordon Joe Kelly
Jorge Soler Brian Buxton
Francisco Lindor Nick Castellanos
Brian Goodwin Lucas Giolito
Max Fried Sonny Gray
Nomar Mazara Courtney Hawkins
Alydmis Diaz  

Obviously, Sylvester acquired Machado and Peacock for the sole purpose of flipping them.  We've seen this tactic often from Bobby, as he has often played the role of "middle man" in several negotiations over the past several seasons.  He evidently believes he's able to find more value for the player he is flipping than that player's original GM.  And oftentimes, he's right.  It's difficult to say whether he was right in the case of Machado, as there were so many other players involved in the Allentown and Great Lakes deals.  Could Tom have received the same amount of talent by dealing directly with Great Lakes? We'll never know.  But in the end, Tom got the first baseman he needed, Scott got the player he coveted, and Bobby got the prospects he needs to feed his never-ending trading addiction.

The players above highlighted in blue are the ones with significant value this year.  As you can see, Sylvester gave up far more 2013 talent than he acquired.  It would seem logical to conclude, then, that he has conceded the division to his father, and is stockpiling young players for the future, despite the fact that the Apostles own a .518 record and are within spitting distance of the playoffs.

Given the apparent goal of stockpiling talent for the future, how much progress did Sylvester make after all that wheeling and dealing?  Soler and Buxton are virtually indistinguishable at this point.  Buxton has the higher ranking in every prospect list, and comes with the cachet of being the second overall pick in the MLB draft.  He's also off to a blistering start to the 2013 season.  But Soler is equally impressive from a scouting standpoint, and is also off to a tremendous start at a more advanced level.  There doesn't seem to be much separating the two at this point.

Lindor was ranked #14 in our Farm Report this year, while Castellanos was ranked #23, so there isn't a lot of room separating them at this point, either.  Because Lindor plays a more demanding position, he probably gets the nod, despite Sylvester's obvious man-crush on Castellanos.

The other eight prospects involved all have their upsides and downsides.  Not one appears to be a sure thing at this point.  But the Apostles also acquired several non-farm players with potential value next season, including Gattis, Gardner, Carter and Hafner.  So in the end, the Apostles gave up immediate value for potential future gain.  Once you filter out all the noise, it's really nothing we haven't seen before.

Story #2: Neck-and-Neck in the Hrbek

In pre-season league voting, the Chicago Black Sox were the favorites to win this division with 5 votes, followed by Atlanta (4), Akron (3) and Cleveland (2).  And yet, for most of this season, the Hrbek Division standings have been reversed, with the Cinderella-story Rocks leading the way and the Black Sox floundering at the bottom.  That fairy tale may not last much longer, however, as both Akron and Atlanta are tied just one game behind.

The Rocks lead the division despite being outscored by their competition.  Both the Ryche and Fire Ants have scored more runs, and allowed fewer runs, than Cleveland this season.  So how have the Rocks managed to hold on to their lead so far?  Well, for starters, they own the best home record of any team in the EL at 18-10.  Their bullpen has yet to blow a 7th inning lead.  And they are 11-7 in one-run games.  All three of those trends are unlikely to continue for much longer.

Meanwhile, can anyone explain what has happened to the Chicago Black Sox this year?  They were the pre-season favorites to win this division, and GM John Gill has been making moves designed to make this team even stronger, and yet the Black Sox just haven't played good baseball.  After a disappointing 13-15 start to the season, Chicago went just 10-18 in Chapter Two.

Despite a lineup that includes MLB Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Evan Longoria and Matt Weiters (among other above-average hitters), Chicago has scored fewer runs than any other team in the division.  56 games into the season, Longoria is batting just .177/.200/.194.  Upton owns a sub-.400 slugging percentage, and has hit just 5 home runs.  Kemp is batting just .254/.295/.471.  And recently-departed shortstop Starlin Castro was hitting just .224/.286/.283 when Gill kicked him in the ass on his way out the door.

Gill is hoping that the infusion of new talent in Chicago will finally turn this team's fortunes around.  The Black Sox currently trail the division leaders by seven games, and there is plenty of time to make up that much ground.  But if Chicago doesn't start performing as expected soon, it could lead to an epic sell-off.

Story #3: The Resurrection of Salem

Eight games ago, the Salem Cowtippers were in last place, their season virtually over, and several star players occupying a spot on the Selling forum.  After a week of negotiations, the team made only one trade, sending James Shields and Jose Reyes to Chicago for Gavin Floyd and Starlin Castro.

Then they went 7-1 over their last 8 games of the chapter, and all of that changed in the blink of an eye.  They went from sellers to buyers, adding NL Cy Young R.A. Dickey in a deal with the Las Vegas Flamingoes, and Tyler Clippard in another small deal with Chicago.  Their 17-11 record in Chapter Two gives them a .500 record (28-28) for the season, which is currently good enough to rank second in the Butler Division, and just one game behind the current OL wild card leaders, the Flagstaff Outlaws.

If this all sounds familiar, it's only because the Cowtippers went through a similar series of circumstances last year.  They got off to a slow start, and watched the Blazers jump out to an insurmountable lead.  Then their MVP, Matt Kemp, got hurt during the MLB season, and he was immediately traded to Chicago.  Instead of waving the white flag, however, the Cowtippers made up for the loss of Kemp by improving at several different positions.  They added players like Melky Cabrera and Dustin Pedroia, who not only contributed to the 2012 season, but also filled the team's needs for 2013.  And in the end, Salem won the OL wild card, before ultimately losing to the Blazers in the Division Series.

After all the wheeling and dealing this chapter, Salem is in a much better position for the 2014 season, having filled the void that would have been left at the shortstop position after Reyes becomes a free agent.  And in terms of this season, Dickey should be an upgrade over Shields, and Castro will be an upgrade over Reyes, defensively.  (And offensively, it wouldn't take much for Castro to exceed the production that Reyes was providing this season.)  So in the end, it looks like a repeat of 2012 for the Cowtippers, who continue to win year after year, yet never have anything to show for it.

Story #4: Great Lakes Trades Youth for Youth

After breaking a streak of 11 straight sub-.500 seasons in 2011, and reaching the playoffs for the first time in franchise history that season, the Sphinx returned to a familiar position last season: 3rd place, and a record of 65-95.

This season was a lost cause before it even began.  The Allentown Ridgebacks have once again assembled an unbeatable juggernaut led by yet another shocking surprise MVP candidate, and the Kansas Law Dogs spent their way into contention with a free agent shopping spree, generously financed by Nic Weiss.

Once again, the Sphinx are on the wrong side of .500, sporting a record of 25-31.  If they ever want to escape from this death spiral, now would seemingly be a good time to do it.  Unfortunately for Sphinx fans, the trades made by GM Scott Romonosky this chapter may move the needle in the wrong direction.

Any rebuilding team should look to acquire players that are: a) young, b) cheap, and c) have a lot of upside potential.  Ideally, that team would want to acquire those types of players by trading players who are: a) old, b) expensive and c) have little upside for the future.  To trade a young, cheap player with upside for other cheap, young players with upside is the definition of counterproductive -- especially when the cheap, young players you are trading are more established than the ones you are adding.  And that is certainly true of the trades made by Romonosky this past chapter.

First, in a deal with the SoCal Slyme, Romonosky traded Elvis Andrus, John Jaso and Bobby Parnell for Jhonny Peralta, Jarrod Saltalamachhia, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and George Springer.  If Andrus and Jaso were free agents at the end of this season, this trade might have made sense for a rebuilding team; however, both are signed through the 2014 season at a combined salary of just $4.2 million.  Of course, it's possible that Bradley and Springer could very well develop into bargains in their own right, but Andrus and Jaso are already bargains!  Trading a definite bargain for a possible bargain moves the needle in the wrong direction.  While it may help the team in the distant future, there is a good chance it may not, and a very good chance it will hurt the team in the immediate future.

Next, the Sphinx added four prospects from the St. Louis Flippers in exchange for Pablo Sandoval and two very good prospects.  Again, it's quite possible that the prospects the Sphinx received in this trade will become tremendous bargains in the years ahead.  In fact, I really like Jorge Soler, and believe he will be the most valuable player involved in all of St. Louis' trades this chapter.  But the thing is, Sandoval is ALREADY a bargain.  Signed through the 2016 season, at a salary of just $4.6 million next season, he is among the biggest bargains in the league.  So again, it makes little logical sense for a rebuilding team to trade a known bargain for several possible bargains.  And throw in a couple of top prospects on top of that!

Because of these trades, the Sphinx are all but guaranteed to spend yet another year in 2014 below the .500 mark.  Scott Romonosky certainly has a lot more patience than I do.

Story #5: The Enigmatic Nic Weiss

Nic Weiss made a series of strange decisions following his franchise's first 100-win season last year, and the league-wide head-scratching has now continued into the season.  Let's just review Weiss' season for a minute.  He began the winter by taking over $40 million in unwanted salary off of Chris Luhning's hands.  Why?  That has never been fully explained, although given the fact that he immediately tried to flip the players he acquired from Kansas, it likely has something to do with arbitrage.

He managed to flip two of the expensive stars he acquired from Kansas, sending Matt Cain to Los Altos for prospects (and giving Jeff Paulson a second life as a contender), and shipping Cole Hamels off to Akron (giving them instant contender status) in exchange for another pair of prospects.  Finally, he traded a trio of young impact superstars (David Wright, Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Morneau) to his pal, Bobby, in exchange for another bunch of prospects, including Byron Buxton.

So, in summary, Weiss spent the entire winter stockpiling tons of prospects by taking on tons of unwanted salary, turning three teams into instant contenders along the way.

At this point, you could almost see some semblance of a strategy.  However, this past chapter, Weiss completely reversed his winter strategy by taking on yet another hugely-expensive contract in Joe Mauer (who is owed a whopping $30 million over the next three years) in exchange for...wait for it...PROSPECTS...including Byron Buxton!

The Meatballs haven't performed nearly as awful as predicted, but they are still 10 games behind the division leaders (tied with two other teams for last place.)  If you can figure out what Nic Weiss' strategy is this year, please let me know.

Story #6: SoCal Goes For It

After two straight years of throwing in the towel in the middle of a pennant race, Bob Sylvester appears to have finally reversed course.  This past chapter, the elder Sylvester made a pair of trades in which he parted with several top prospects, including Jackie Bradley, Jr., George Springer and Lucas Giolito.  In exchange, the Slyme have added a much-needed third baseman, Kyle Seager, who replaces banjo-hitting Willie Bloomquist.  They also upgraded at shortstop (from Jhonny Peralta to Elvis Andrus), catcher (from Jarrod Saltalamacchia to John Jaso) and in the bullpen (with the addition of Darren Oliver.)

After going 16-12 last chapter, the Slyme now hold a four game lead in the Person Division, and appear to be well positioned to run away with that division over the next four chapters.  Despite the fact that the division includes two other teams with a .500+ record, SoCal is the only team that has outscored their opponents this season.  And with the Apostles seemingly bowing out of the race, that makes Dad Sylvester's job even easier.

Story #7: The Los Altos Dominators

The Los Altos Undertakers were expected to be a competitive team this year, although as I described in the Pre-Season Preview, this was supposed to be a "placeholder year" where the Undertakers would merely tread water while waiting for their next wave of young superstars to mature.  Apparently, that wave came sooner than expected.  After two chapters of play, the Undertakers own the second best record in all of the BDBL, at 34-22 (.607).  They are outscoring their opponents by 53 runs -- more than any other team aside from the Blazers -- and own a comfortable five game lead over the heavily-favored Flagstaff Outlaws.

Traditionally, the Undertakers are a team that has succeeded with pitching (especially in the bullpen) and defense; however, this team is winning with an all-or-nothing offensive approach.  They currently lead the OL in home runs (tied with New Milford) and rank #2 in strikeouts.  The team's home run leader, Ike Davis, personifies this approach, as he has whacked 15 longballs this season, while whiffing 57 times in 55 games.  Jason Heyward has 11 homers on the season, and right-handers Jonny Gomes (10) and Ian Desmond (10) also own double-digit home run totals despite playing in a home ballpark that punishes righty power hitters.

On the mound, the Undertakers are as dominant as ever.  And as always, it is the bullpen that has been especially productive.  Famous household names such as Sean Doolittle, Jordan Norberto and Ryan Cook have combined to allow just 10 earned runs in 66 innings this season -- an ERA of 1.36.  And staff ace Matt Cain has compiled a stellar 7-3 record and 3.26 ERA in 14 starts.

Without a doubt, the biggest reason for the Undertakers' five game lead in the division at this point is their head-to-head record against the Outlaws.  In eight games against Los Altos, Flagstaff managed to win just one.  If nothing else, Flagstaff will get a break over the next two chapters by not having to face their division rivals.

Story #8: Don Woodworth, MIA

I had high hopes for Don Woodworth.  He first contacted me last October, before I even knew that John Duel was on his way out the door.  He told me he had just completed a season in another Diamond Mind league where he took a last place team and turned them into a playoffs team in just one year.  He described himself as "by far" the most hands-on manager in the league, and stressed the importance of having active owners not only from a transactional standpoint, but for the benefit of building camaraderie and a league identity.

He told me that he wasn't someone who jumps from league to league, and assured me that he would contribute more than his fair share both on and off the field.  In short, he told me everything I wanted to hear from a potential owner.

I don't know what happened to Don, but I hope he is well.  If he simply lost interest in the league for any reason, I would have appreciated a heads-up, or at the very least a good-bye.  But it's possible something serious may have happened to him, and he was unable to do so.

In either case, we now have an ownerless franchise in our league.  Unfortunately, the new owner of this franchise will have an even tougher challenge than Woodworth had when he took over.  Woodworth inherited a franchise that had been decimated by John Duel, and included only one player (Madison Bumgarner) with any semblance of market value.  Of course, he traded Bumgarner, getting several young players with potential value (Jean Segura, Mike Leake and Allen Webster) in return.

But while Woodworth only had to deal with one bad contract (Lance Berkman's $8.5 million Type-H salary), the new owner of this franchise will have to deal with several, thanks to Woodworth's ill-fated winter spending spree.  Corey Hart ($6MM), Jimmy Rollins ($5.5MM) and especially Ben Zobrist ($11.5MM) became instant burdens on this franchise the moment they were signed.  Paying market value (or above-market value) for aging veterans is rarely an effective strategy, but it is even more disastrous for a rebuilding team such as this one.  Of Woodworth's four Type-H signings, it appears that Anibal Sanchez ($6MM) may be the only one who won't hurt the franchise, as he is off to a fantastic start in this MLB season (33+ IP, 26 H, 0 HR, 9 BB, 41 K, 1.34 ERA) -- although it is still very early, and Sanchez's recent record suggests there is a lot of regression in his future.

I have placed ads on two different fantasy-related web sites, and I've also reached out to a couple of friends to gauge their interest, but so far, there are no leads.  Our "defending champions" are apparently a very tough sell.

Story #9: Chris Tillman Makes History

There were seven no-hitters thrown in MLB last season, and three more in 2011.  But in the BDBL, just one was recorded in 2012, and NONE in 2011.  Now, thanks to Chris Tillman of the Niagara Locks, we have our first BDBL no-hitter of 2013.

Tillman accomplished his feat on April 17th, in a game against the SoCal Slyme.  He needed just 103 pitches, and allowed three walks.  Those three walks mean that the BDBL is still waiting for our first perfect game in league history.  The closest the league has ever come to that rare feat was in 2005 when Chicago's Ben Sheets didn't allow a hit, a walk or a hit batter, but missed a perfect game when second baseman Eric Young committed an error in the 8th inning.

The BDBL has now had a streak of 15 years without a perfect game.  The last time MLB had a streak that long was when Don Larsen tossed his history perfecto in the 1956 World Series, ending a 34 year drought.

Story #10: The Prank to End All Pranks

Those who are new to the league are probably scratching their heads in confusion over the lame practical jokes that have been attempted in the past two years.  You really need an appreciation of league history to understand the tradition of classic pranks pulled in this league, starting with Phil Geisel's masterpiece way back in 1998, and ending (for all intents and purposes) with the 2005 prank orchestrated by Prankmaster General Steve Osborne, in which Paul Marazita made his triumphant return to the BDBL.

But after so many years, the league has grown more than a little skeptical whenever anything out of the ordinary happens in the weeks leading up to April 1st.  And that is why the latest prank attempt by Bobby Sylvester and Company failed to land as hard as it would have years ago.  You have to give them an "A" for effort, but it's probably time to call a moratorium on future pranking for at least a decade (or until Steve Osborne returns to the league, whichever comes first.)