September, 2013
The Best
of the Forum, 2013
"Here is how I think things will go on
Tuesday: Obama 303 - Romney 235."
-- Jeff Paulson, 11/5/12
"My latest prediction (which changes
every day): Romney 279, Obama 259."
-- Mike Glander, 11/5/12
Actual results: Obama 332, Romney 206.
I guess that makes Jeff the "winner",
although, did any of us really "win" that day?
"I know my liberal Facebook friends are
all counting on Nate Silver's analysis being as accurate as it was in
'08. But when your models depend on data that is collected in a
dishonest way, you're going to get dishonest results. My prediction is
that Nate Silver's political career will end tonight. 303 electoral
votes is only possible if the Democrat turnout is higher this year than
it was in '08. Does anyone believe it will be?"
-- Mike Glander, 11/6/12
As it turned out, the turnout rate for
Democrats was down across nearly every demographic...but the turnout
rate for Republicans was down even more! And there were 6 million
fewer white voters in 2012 than in 2008!
Obama's entire campaign strategy was to
demonize Romney and scare people into believing Romney didn't "care"
about them, to the point where they wouldn't even bother to go to the
voting booth -- and that strategy worked brilliantly. Exit polls
showed that those who actually did vote believed Romney would do a
better job with the economy, job creation, healthcare, education and
foreign policy. But when asked which candidate "cares" more about
them, a stunning 53% named Obama over Romney. It was a campaign
geared toward the low-information voter, and the result should have been
more obvious.
"I'm still surprised how close it is
when, to me, the choices seem crystal clear. I am constantly amazed at
how many people would willingly choose to move backwards to failed
policies and tired ideas rather than progress forward. But I believe the
majority will still choose the path forward."
-- John Duel, 11/6/12
No comment necessary. I just
couldn't write this piece without including this classic John Duel
quote.
"Great Lakes sends Jessie Litsch
to Los Altos for Hanley Ramirez.
We're taking a big risk in taking on Hanley's contract but are
hopeful it will pan out like the Meatball's trade for David Wright
last year."
-- Scott Romonosky,
11/30/12
Excellent call, Scott. It's
always a good feeling when a gamble pays off.
"Yep."
-- Nic Weiss, 11/30/12
This was Nic Weiss' one-word
confirmation following his blockbuster off-season trade with Kansas, in
which he took $40 MILLION in salary from Kansas, which allowed Chris
Luhning to buy a playoffs-caliber team in the auction. Not only
did that trade seal the fate of the 2013 season for both teams, but it
severely affected several other teams as well, both during the auction
and throughout the regular season. It was by far the biggest, most
important, most impactful trade of the year...and the only explanation
we got from Weiss was "yep."
"You're absolutely correct....
Who wants to build a team around [Jesus] Montero, [Wil] Middlebrooks,
[Brandon] Belt, [Phil] Hughes and company?....
I am absolutely out of my mind..."
-- Jim Doyle, 12/1/12
Well, at least he acknowledged that he
is out of his mind.
"The big part of this deal for
me was parting with [Marco] Estrada, who I think will be an ace this
coming season. Look at his numbers last year in his first full
season pitching as a starter, and then look how consistently they
held throughout the year. That tells me he's not just some flash in
the pan. At only $500K, he's a huge bargain."
-- Mike Glander, 12/4/12
Okay, so Marco Estrada isn't exactly an
"ace", but at $1.5MM next season, he will still be a bargain. In
114 innings, he has allowed just 105 hits and 26 walks, with 104 K's and
a 4.26 ERA. That's half of a quality season. And if he
hadn't been injured, and those numbers were doubled, he would be on the
cusp of "acedom."
"I don't get this trade at all.
[Madison] Bumgarner is $100k. If you're going to deal him for
prospects, why not wait? It's not like he's expensive to carry
through Cutdown day.
Maybe I'm just not getting all the hype on [Jean] Segura."
-- Tom DiStefano, 12/6/12
Segura (.296/.331/.426, 20 triples, 12
homers, 44 SB) has been very good this season, and is one of baseball's
best shortstops. Ranked by WAR, he is the 5th best shortstop in
the game, behind only Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Desmond, Andrelton Simmons
and Yunel Escobar.
Bumgarner, meanwhile, is having a
career year (201 IP, 146 H, 62 BB, 199 K, 2.77 ERA) at the same age and
salary as Segura. So, for the moment at least, it appears that
this trade wasn't nearly as lopsided as most thought it was at the time.
Unlike this next one...
"So [Jim Doyle] just traded
[Billy] Butler and [Bartolo] Colon for [Felix] Doubront, [Anthony]
Gose and Ben Revere?
This is the first time I've ever
seen backwards arbitrage."
-- Ryan Glander, 12/6/12
Contestant for Quote of the Year.
"A few reasons [why Josh Johnson
will not dominate in MLB 2013]: His strikeout rate took a hit last
year, maybe as a result of his fastball losing a couple of mph, or
maybe just a fluke. I personally think all his various injuries have
taken their toll on him. Shoulder injuries are tough to overcome,
and he hasn't shown the ability to remain healthy for more than a
year. I also think Toronto's ballpark factors are going to hurt him,
as he's a bit of a flyball pitcher.
Just a prediction on my part. We shall see."
-- Mike Glander, 12/20/12
Unlike my Election Day prediction, this
one turned out to be on the money. Although Johnson's strikeout
rate went back up, he was injured more than half the year, and after
throwing just 81 innings, he was done for the year in August. And
my comment about his flyball tendencies and Toronto's park factors may
have been prescient as well, given that Johnson allowed 15 home runs in
only 81 innings, and posted an ugly 6.20 ERA.
"[Byron] Buxton is so toolsy,
but probably a 50 hit tool, 50 power tool (max) and those are
practically the only ones that matter. I was hesitant to include him
only because if he posts a 750+ ops he will jump to top 10 on the
lists next season. If he doesn't, though, (50/50 IMO) then his stock
drops majorly. Had to do it, but I'm not happy with losing all the
potential."
-- Bobby Sylvester,
12/25/12
Despite Buxton's "50" tools, he enjoyed
perhaps the best season of any player in the minor leagues and is
clearly one of baseball's best prospects (if not THE best.) It's a
good thing Bobby re-acquired him a few months later.
"You [Anthony Peabrain] complain about
getting the tiebreak and having guys like Carroll in the auction because
you have the best record. Now you bitch that about some dude not falling
to you at 24.
If you ever win the title, you'll probably bitch the trophy isn't shinny
enough or gold enough."
-- Greg Newgard, 1/1/13
Another contestant for Quote of the
Year.
"[Hiroyuki Nakajima] could be a Nishioka-like
bust, or he could be an Aoki-like sleeper. With Reyes becoming a free
agent at the end of the season, I couldn't pass on the opportunity to
sign a guy who could be my starting SS next year at only $100K."
-- Mike Glander, 1/2/13
Man, I was so happy with that pick when
I made it. Although, as it turned out, I would still rather have
Nakajima than Starlin Castro.
"This year's Halladay bid reminds me of
my Curt Schilling bid in 2004. At the time, Schilling was 37 years old,
and coming off an injury-shortened season. I won the bidding at $11
million, and he rewarded me not only with an excellent season that year
(13-7, 3.38 CERA in 180+ innings), but gave me more than my money's
worth the following year (23-6, 2.62 CERA -- in what should have been a
Cy Young performance.)
Halladay and Schilling are roughly the same age, and are roughly the
same type of pitcher with the same type of performance history. The only
difference is Halladay's shoulder problems. That's the x-factor."
-- Mike Glander, 1/4/13
That x-factor certainly played a major
factor in Halladay becoming a $6 million liability next year rather than
the bargain many envisioned him to be.
"[Chase] Headley is a wonderful player to have
THIS YEAR. If anyone believes he'll hit anywhere near 30 homers in MLB
this season, I have a few trades I'd like to talk to you about. A year
from now, his contract will make Mike Napoli's look like a bargain. And
he needs to be signed to TWO more years."
-- Mike Glander, 1/5/13
Actually, given Headley's performance
in MLB this year (.243/.338/.391), not to mention his sub-par
performance in the BDBL (.259/.357/.454), I would rather own Napoli!
"I still don't know what Dieppe is
doing, loading up on all these expensive veterans. Who knows -- maybe
he'll buy his way into the playoffs in Year One."
-- Mike Glander, 1/7/13
Or maybe he just didn't have a clue
what he was doing, and would disappear halfway through the season,
leaving his franchise in worse shape than when he took over in the first
place.
"Luhning spending $19MM on Kuroda and
Weaver continues to baffle me, as I assumed he was in rebuilding mode
after unloading all that salary this winter. It just doesn't make much
sense to unload a bunch of salary and then replace those spots with
expensive veterans earning market value. There's no profit there."
-- Mike Glander, 1/7/13
You wouldn't think that spending $63.5
million on players who are valued at $63.5 million would be a winning
formula, but the Law Dogs are 16 games ahead in the wild card race, so
what do I know?
"I didn't think [Mike Morse] had a
crappy year at all! Plus, he's really had 3 solid years in a row and
yes, he's only 30, so I would imagine he'd have a couple more good ones
before it all falls apart...Type H seemed like a no-brainer to me."
-- Matt Clemm, 1/10/13
Update on Mike Morse: .215/.270/.381 in
337 PA's. I don't think this is what Matt meant when he said
signing Morse to a Type-H salary was a "no-brainer."
"Just looking through some of the
signings to date and shaking my head. One that didn't get much attention
was Doyle's signing of Carlos Beltran to a $9.5MM salary. He fell apart
(.236/.302/.440) in the second half, though he did bounce back nicely in
September. He'll be making $19.5 million over the next two years at ages
36 and 37. Yikes.
That's $30.5 million for three players (Beltran, Morrow and Napoli), and
$31.5 million for the same three next year."
-- Mike Glander, 1/10/13
Beltran's MLB numbers this year
(.297/.340/.490) are nearly identical to his numbers from 2012. He
wasn't worth $9.5 million in 2012, and he won't be worth that much next
year, either. Meanwhile, Morrow tossed just 54 innings this year,
at a salary of $8 million. At least Napoli managed to miss only
about 25 games this year, so that's something.
"I remember when I traded for Matt Kemp
a few years ago, and people were saying the same things about him. "He's
all hype." "He strikes out too much." "He'll never hit for average."
Etc., etc., etc.. I see a lot of Matt Kemp in Upton.
The dude hit 21 homers in the second half, and 12 in September! And he's
just now entering his peak years."
-- Mike Glander, 1/12/13
Okay, so B.J. Upton didn't exactly
enjoy a Matt Kemp-like breakout this season. But at least I didn't
go "Type-H" on him, so I can release him without penalty.
"Tom went Type H for Colby Lewis???
Surprise of the auction."
-- Mike Glander, 1/12/13
The Baseball Gods never let an
opportunity pass to shine their bright light upon their Favorite Son and
bestow him with endless gifts. After Tommy John surgery cut his
2012 season short, Lewis was expected to return to the big leagues in
June. Instead, he suffered setback after setback, and was finally
shut down for good in August. Tom got a nice half-season from him
this year, and is now free to release him without penalty this winter.
It's good to be Tom.
"Hey Mike, get this one down for
your FTODC column. Oscar Tavares will have a better career than Mike
Trout and by the time they are 30 there won't even be a debate about
it.
MT in 2020 will be like Adam Jones/BJ Upton (pitchers figured him
out in August--his career is toast!)
OT in 2020 will be like Stan Musial, Rogers Hornsby, Joe DiMaggio"
-- Bobby Sylvester,
1/16/13
No comment needed. This is just
embarrassing.
"Bobby, not only will I take the
division, I will make another prediction. Your dad beats you by at
LEAST 5 games this year."
-- Anthony Peburn,
1/23/13
Just call him Nostradumbass.
"[The SoCal Slyme] is good, but
he will have to pull off some major deals to beat me my 5 games! Who
is his 2nd basemen? Donovan Solano? Willie Bloomquist? And his 5th
starter---? I'm not worried."
-- Bobby Sylvester,
1/23/13
It seems like ancient history now, but
only ten months (and 10,000 trades) ago, Bobby not only had playoff
aspirations, but was VERY confident about it!
"Fausto, best 100k pick.
137 IP, 3.47 CERA
Predict-ion."
-- Brian Potrafka, 1/26/13
Fausto/Roberto's actual numbers this
season: 151 IP, 4.89 ERA.
"Yep, I may worry [about trading
Fernando Rodney to the Kansas Law Dogs] IF I make the playoffs. And
IF Chris makes the playoffs. And IF I face him in said playoffs.
Which happen what, a good ten months after the said trade? A whole
lot can happen between now and then. My main worry is trying to get
my team there."
-- DJ Shepard, 1/26/13
It's now (roughly) 10 months later.
Are you worried yet, DJ?
"I bet the Rocks score more runs
than the Sox!"
-- Mike Stein, 1/28/13
As of press time, the Rocks have scored
582 runs in 136 games...
...And the Black Sox have scored 612
runs in 132 games.
What did John win?
"I think Flagstaff will run away
with the division early and make a big splash by the time BDBL
weekend comes around. I think it'll turn out...
1. Flagstaff
2. Bear Country
3. Los Altos
4. Dieppe"
-- Nic Weiss, 2/1/13
To be fair, predicting the future is
hard.
"[15 pounds for Mike Trout is] a
HUGE weight gain -- especially for a 21-year-old kid. It'll be
interesting to see how it affects his play."
-- Mike Glander, 2/14/13
Oh, it affected him alright. It
made him BETTER.
"Notable Player Predictions
Trout 286/358/439, 19 HR, 44 SB
Harper 294/382/491, 28 HR
Strausburg 2.12 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 290 K, 24 W
Castro 310/351/402, 16 HR
Breakout Players: Carlos Gomez, Jay Bruce, Alex Gordon, Jose Altuve,
Salvador Perez, Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez, Mike Minor, Jerry Sands,
Tyler Moore
Busts: Prince Fielder, Felix Hernandez, Dustin Pedroia, Desmond
Jennings, Anthony Rizzo, AJ Burnett, Jurickson Profar, Jamie Garcia,
Adrian Beltre
Prospect Risers: Lucas Giolito, Michael Wacha, Gabriel Guerrero, Luis
Heredia, Lewis Brinson, Courtney Hawkins, Stryker Trahen, Adys Portillo"
-- Bobby Sylvester, 3/8/13
A lot of predictions here, so let's
take them one by one:
Trout, actual: .326/.433/.562, 26 HR,
33 SB. Verdict: way off.
Harper, actual: .279/.376/.499, 20 HR. Verdict: pretty damn close.
Strasburg, actual: 3.02 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 187 K, 7 W. Verdict: way,
WAY off.
Castro, actual: .241/.281/.343, 10 HR. Verdict: not even in the same
galaxy.
Breakout players: Gomez and Minor were the only two breakouts.
Busts: Only Garcia could be considered a bust.
Prospect risers: Swing-and-a-miss on all of them!
"Rookies of the Year- Chris Archer and
Yasiel Puig."
-- Ryan Glander, 3/8/13
Now THAT'S how predicting is done!
"WS Rays vs Padres, Padres in 7."
-- Brian Potrafka, 3/8/13
EPIC fail.
"There's no way [the St. Louis Cardinals
are] better than Cincy or Milwaukee. And I put Pittsburgh ahead of them
just because I like what's happening out there."
-- Mike Glander, 3/27/13
"STL is Matt Carpenter, Pete Kozma, Dan
Descalso and a bunch of WORS. Pit by 5 games. Book it."
-- Anthony Peburn, 3/27/13
I continue to be baffled by St. Louis'
success.
"Needing pitching next season,
the Flagstaff Outlaws decided to gamble on Ubaldo Jiminez, and in
the process, gave the Chicago Black Sox some financial flexibility.
"With some impending free agents in Cliff Lee and Chris Capuano on
the horizon, we decided to roll the dice on Ubaldo," Outlaws GM Greg
Newgard said.
The Outlaws will send RP Phillippe Aumont to the Black Sox.
"We've got salary flexibility next season, so we'll roll the dice
here. We project to have plenty of salary going into next year, so
the 6M next season won't hurt too bad.""
-- Greg Newgard, 4/5/13
HUGE roll of the dice by Greg...and it
paid off.
"The Meatballs season makes zero
sense to me. Buxton and others for Mauer? From a sub .500 team?
After punting away the entire preseason acquisition period?
Ah to be young and in the Ozzie."
-- Tom DiStefano, 4/21/13
Although Mauer has had a nice season
(.324/.404/.476) in MLB, he has missed around 50 games, while Buxton has
blossomed into the best prospect in baseball. I didn't understand
this trade when it was made, and it makes even less sense now.
"I like Machado but...
1) I think he'll be "good" as opposed to a star.
2) his BDBL GM will have to make a contract decision on him while
he's very young. The dude will be approaching $10 mil/year just as
he's hitting his prime."
-- Tom DiStefano, 4/24/13
I'd like to thank Bobby for taking
Machado off of that roster. Imagine Machado, Stanton and Trout all
playing for the same team for a decade or more? That's the stuff
that nightmares are made of.
"I thought about offering
Anthony Rizzo to Tom for Machado, and I think (based on past
conversations) he might have pulled the trigger on that one. But
then I looked at Machado's record. His scouting reports just haven't
matched his numbers at any level. Granted, he's posting these
numbers at highly-advanced levels against highly-advanced
competition at a very young age, so I'm sure there is plenty of
upside potential there. But I just don't see the statistical
evidence for all the scouting hype. At the end of the day, I'd
rather have Rizzo."
-- Mike Glander, 4/24/13
And that, my friends, is why I will be
rebuilding next year.
"The difference, I think, is
that [Andy] Pettitte may be a bargain at $5MM next season, whereas
[RA] Dickey may struggle to be worthy of his salary. Add in the fact
that [Andrew] Bailey is at least a $5MM closer earning just $500K,
and I think [Johnny Bo] will be just fine in the end."
-- Mike Glander, 4/26/13
Okay, so that deal didn't work out as
well as I thought it would for JB.
"Career year [for Yuniesky
Betancourt, who he was shamelessly trying to sell just hours after
picking him up off the free agent scrap heap.] Because he is the
second best hitter on the Brew Crew, teams will start to pitch
around him and he will lay off of pitches out of the zone and draw
some walks. Book it.
Seriously, he will obviously be a source of power and not so much
OBP."
-- Anthony Peburn, 5/1/13
"Tell you what, if at the
trading deadline Betencourt still has a SLG over .450, I'll trade
you Jordan Zimmermann for him."
-- Mike Stein, 5/1/13
Of course, there was never any remote
possibility that Stein would have to pay off that bet.
Time for a quick Yuniesky Betancourt
update. As of 9/24:
.209 batting average
.237 OBP
.357 slugging
Yep, that's pretty much what we all
expected.
"Anyone checked out BC's
pitching staff for next year ... and beyond?
Patrick Corbin 100K
Matt Harvey 100K
Hisashi Iwakuma 2 mil
Lance Lynn 100K
Wade Miley 100K
Yikes!"
-- Mike Stein, 5/20/13
Although this rotation doesn't look
nearly as formidable as it did in May, it's still pretty impressive:
Corbin: 203 IP, 3.28 ERA
Harvey: 178 IP, 2.27 ERA
Iwakuma: 212 IP, 2.76 ERA
Lynn: 196 IP, 4.09 ERA
Miley: 190 IP, 3.75 ERA
And all for $2.4 million. And as
if that weren't enough, the Jamboree also have:
Bruce Chen: 109 IP, 3.13 ERA
Chris Archer: 122 IP, 3.02 ERA
Ricky Nolasco: 193 IP, 3.55 ERA
Garrett Richards: 136 IP, 3.77 ERA
Trevor Rosenthal: 72 IP, 2.74 ERA
The Jamboree practically have TWO
starting rotations next year, at a combined cost of $6.2 million!
"[Responding to my assertion
that James Shields is one of the best pitchers in baseball.] [It's]
May. That's like a really good CH 1 next year. CH's 2-6 could still
suck."
-- Anthony Peburn,
5/23/13
James Shields on 5/23: 73 IP, 2.47 ERA,
.212/.257/.323 against
James Shields after 5/23: 149 IP, 3.57 ERA, .272/.337/.389 against
Still pretty good.
"I think [Jonathan] Gray just became the
best pitching prospect in Vegas franchise history."
-- Mike Glander, 6/13/13
True. Until he was then traded to
Tom a few hours later. |
