August, 2014

Chapter Four Recap

Players of the Chapter

Anthony Peburn's despicably evil plot to abuse and exploit this game was made abundantly clear when he spent $11 million on a platoon hitter in last winter's auction.  Shin-Soo Choo hit just .215/.347/.265 against lefties in MLB, but thanks to New Milford's cartoonish ballpark factors, that has made little difference.  After hitting .351/.457/.670 with a league-leading 22 RBI's and 31.3 runs created in Chapter Four, he is our OL Hitter of the Chapter.  Congratulations, I guess.

Two years ago, the number one player on the free agent market was Adrian Beltre.  No fewer than SIXTEEN bids were submitted for the talented, but aging, third baseman, and the Niagara Locks emerged as the winners, at a salary of $12.5 million.  For that effort, the Locks finished in dead-last that year.  This year, Niagara is struggling along at two games below .500, but Beltre keeps hitting.  Thanks to hit .377/.443/.573 performance in Chapter Four, he is our Hitter of the Chapter representing the Eck League.

Clayton Kershaw went 6-0 in Chapter Four, and Chris Sale finished the chapter with an ERA of just 0.66, but I'm giving the Pitcher of the Chapter honors to Max Scherzer -- and not only because of my overwhelming bias.  Scherzer finished the chapter with a 4-0 record (#2 in wins), a miniscule 1.18 ERA (second to Sale), a league-leading 53 K's (six more than Sale), and an opponents' average of .161/.225/.263.  He led the league in lowest batting average and on-base percentage, and ranked third in lowest slugging.

Tim Lincecum won only one game for the Sphinx in Chapter Four, but I'm giving him the EL Pitcher of the Chapter award for his stellar performance, regardless.  And I don't care if you agree or not, John Gill.  Lincecum ranked #2 in the EL in opponent batting average (.167), OBP (.219) and slugging (.200).  He posted a 1.40 ERA in 26+ innings, and pitched well enough to keep the Sphinx in contention for the division title.  Honorable mention goes to Wyoming's Anibal Sanchez (0.95 ERA, .200/.248/.267) and Niagara's Jose Fernandez (0.96 ERA, .165/.264/.196).

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Benes Bonus

The Benes Division race is one of the few races that still exist in the league as we head into the fifth chapter.  In Chapter Four, the Mississippi Meatballs managed not only to overtake the Ravenswood Infidels, but to add a one-game cushion to their lead.  This, despite the fact that Nic Weiss was unable to manage a single game last chapter.

Ravenswood finished the chapter with a 12-12 record despite being outscored by 24 runs.  As we head into another round of divisional play, it's important to note that Mississippi (16-8) has beat up on their divisional opponents, while Ravenswood (13-11) hasn't performed quite as well.

With the Infidels trailing the Salem Cowtippers by six games in the OL wild card race, it is possible that either Ravenswood or Mississippi will be watching the playoffs from the sidelines.  If the Infidels do make it that far, they made a huge move to bolster their playoff hopes by acquiring Clay Buchholz from the Charlotte Mustangs last chapter.  Buchholz (1.91 ERA in 84+ IP) has had a phenomenal season, in the BDBL, and he has enough usage remaining for another five starts.  He is also eligible to pitch eight innings in each post-season series.  In a short series, that one game could make a huge impact.

GM Brian Potrafka acquired another starter this past chapter, and he's hoping that Patrick Corbin makes a dramatic turnaround.  Corbin posted a 3.41 ERA in MLB last year, but his BDBL ERA is nearly THREE RUNS higher at 6.25.  He hardly resembles the pitcher he is supposed to be.

As for Meatballs GM Nic Weiss, he chose to stand pat at the final trading deadline, having made his big trade for Jered Weaver two chapters ago.  Weiss appears so confident that he can win this division, in fact, that he made an "arbitrage" deal last chapter in which he traded Aroldis Chapman for future considerations, and then replaced Chapman in the setup role with Neal Cotts.

These two teams have been battling it out all season long, changing places at the top of the standings week after week.  I fully expect to see that continue over the final two chapters, setting up the delicious possibility of a season-ending head-to-head battle for the last playoffs spot.

Story #2: All Tied Up in the Higuera

The fate of the Higuera Division race is hardly important, given that both teams own a twelve-game lead in the EL wild card race, and yet it is still exciting to see two teams tied atop the division this late in the season.  I have written about the Great Lakes Sphinx's unlikely success this season many times on this page, but I still don't quite understand how they are keeping pace with a Wyoming team that looks so much stronger on paper.

The Sphinx haven't been particularly lucky this season.  In fact, Wyoming has been far luckier according to the Pythagorean measurement.  Wyoming is at +8 (highest in the BDBL, in fact), while Great Lakes is right around where they "should be" at +1.  Great Lakes is just 8-8 in one-run games, they're scoring fewer runs (433) than they are creating (467), and their batters are getting hits on balls in play at nearly the league average (.302).

So if it isn't pure luck, then what is it?  Well, it's all about pitching and defense.  The Sphinx currently lead the entire BDBL in ERA at 3.05.  Their defense is allowing a BIP average of just .274 (second in the BDBL).  And they've allowed an OPS of just .640 (tied with the Cowtippers.)

Tim Lincecum (6-1, 2.34 ERA in 112 IP) is enjoying a phenomenal season, and is posting an ERA that is over two runs LOWER than his MLB ERA of 4.37.  Bartolo Colon (2.67 ERA in 54 innings) has been spectacular since his acquisition.  And Nate Eovaldi (3.09 ERA in 102 IP), Scott Feldman (3.13 ERA in 112 IP) and Hector Santiago (3.48 ERA in 88 IP) have been very solid at the back end of the rotation.

Bartolo Colon...Nate Eovaldi...Scott Feldman...Hector Santiago.  It's easy to see how this pitching staff can be underestimated on paper.  Those names don't exactly scream "Cy Young" -- or even "Chris Young."

And then there is the bullpen.  Would you expect David Purcey, Rex Brothers, Steve Delabar, Louis Coleman, Kevin Gregg and James Russell to post a 1.23 ERA in 124 innings?Neither would I.  I'm not even sure I know who all of those guys are!

As for Wyoming, they continue to underperform -- especially on the offensive side.  Believe it or not, Michael Giancarlo Stanton is still hitting just .218/.317/.377 on the season.  And even superhuman Mike Trout is hitting a modest (for him) .274/.383/.527 with just 17 home runs.

The Ridgebacks have managed to regain a share of the division lead despite that underperformance.  However, they face a significant stumbling block ahead, as their best hitter (by far), Hanley Ramirez, is at 93% usage on the season.  He has roughly 14 games of usage remaining this season over the next 56 games.

To help bolster the offense, DiStefano added Curtis Granderson (.229/.317/.407 overall in MLB) and Kevin Frandsen (.311/.409/.459 vs. LH in MLB) prior to the deadline, but neither seems to be poised to make a significant impact.

As mentioned, it hardly matters who wins this division.  Not only will both teams make the playoffs, but these teams are more than likely to face each other in the Division Series regardless of who finishes in first place.  The only prizes on the line are home-field advantage (and both teams have similar home/road splits) and, of course, bragging rights.

Story #3: Stand Pat Shepard

The Chicago Black Sox stumbled again in Chapter Four, finishing with a record of just 12-12, opening yet another window of opportunity for the Akron Ryche to surge ahead in the Hrbek Division.  And yet, Akron GM D.J. Shepard did what he has traditionally done throughout his BDBL career.  He stood pat.

The Ryche closed out the 2014 trading season as the only team in the BDBL that failed to make a single trade.  After a 10-14 chapter, Akron sits six games behind in the division with a record of 50-54.  With a sub-.500 record this late in the season, it's easy to see why Shepard may have been motivated to sit on the sidelines all season from a trading perspective.  Yet, it's also easy to see how Akron could have easily improved their odds of winning this season or next with only a few trades.

The Ryche have been a middle-of-the-road team this season, both offensively and defensively.  They rank seventh out of twelve EL teams in runs scored, and eighth in runs allowed.  Replacing a couple of dead spots in their lineup and rotation with more productive players could have made enough of a difference to overcome that six game deficit.

For example, Akron catchers this season have created only 35.6 runs this season.  The Niagara Locks were actively shopping Victor Martinez at the deadline, and it likely wouldn't have taken much to acquire him.  Martinez has created 87.5 runs this season -- 51.9 runs more than Akron's catchers.  If you prorate Martinez's run production over two chapters, it would be 47 runs created, compared to Akron's current production of 19.2 over two chapters.  That 27.8 run differential would mean roughly three extra wins for Akron over the final two chapters.  One trade, and they could have made up half the ground in the division.

Akron's shortstop trio of Jordy Mercer, Jonathan Herrera and Joaquin Arias have combined to create just 56.5 runs this season.  The New York Giants' Ben Zobrist has created 89 runs, which would represent an upgrade of 17.5 runs over the next two chapters.  We're now edging even closer to that division title -- and we all know it wouldn't have taken much effort on Shepard's part to wrestle Zobrist away from Jim Doyle.  If Akron had made that deal in Chapter Two, that lead would have vanished completely.

We could perform the same thought experiment on the pitching side.  Joulys Chacin (4.72 ERA in 131+ IP) and Brad Peacock (5.58 ERA in 79 IP) have been horrendous for Akron this season.  Replace them in the rotation with, say, Homer Bailey and Mat Latos, and imagine how greatly that would have improved Akron's chances down the stretch.

Maybe Shepard simply determined that no matter how greatly he improved his team, it wouldn't matter, since the Hrbek Division winner is almost guaranteed to face the rampaging Southern Cal Slyme in the Division Series.  That's a fair point.  Although we've seen many upsets in BDBL playoffs history, it is still a rarity.  Why trade away your team's future prosperity for a slim chance of pulling off such an unlikely series victory?

If Shepard committed to the notion that winning a division title would be a fruitless effort, then why not throw in the towel and look toward 2015?  And what better trade bait is there than Justin Verlander?  Not only does he have only one year remaining under his contract, but he is having a very poor MLB season, and is due to be paid $10 million next season.  If Akron had posted his availability on the open market, just imagine what teams would have offered for him.

Alas, we'll never know.

Story #4: Ozzie League Contenders Load Up for the Postseason

I have already mentioned the impact that Clay Buchholz could have in the postseason if the Infidels make it to the Tournament of Randomness.  But Ravenswood wasn't the only Ozzie League contender making deals with the playoffs in mind.

The Bear Country Jamboree, who are now five games behind the Flagstaff Outlaws in the Griffin Division, replaced the incredibly disappointing Patrick Corbin in their rotation with Mat Latos.  Latos could and should be an ace for Bear Country over the final two chapters, and will match up much better against Flagstaff's righty-heavy lineup.

The New Milford Blazers have been prepping for a post-season matchup against the righty-heavy lineups of Salem and Flagstaff for months.  Last chapter, they added Tanner Roark (.157/.184/.167 vs. RH in MLB) and Tommy Hunter (.141/.190/.154) in a pair of trades.  This chapter, they added Chad Gaudin (.193/.249/.312).  Gaudin is eligible to start one game in the post-season, and Roark and Hunter will be valuable assets in the bullpen.

To counter those trades, Salem added lefty Francisco Liriano last chapter in a deal with the Cuenca Strangegloves.  Among all pitchers in MLB last season with more than 30 innings pitched, Liriano allowed the lowest OPS (just .321) against left-handed batters.  He will effectively neutralize Shin-Soo Choo, Robinson Cano and Matt Carpenter in the Blazers lineup, and force Jason Castro and James Loney to the bench.

Lefty-killers vs. lefty power, righty-killers vs. righty power.  It should be a very interesting post-season.

Story #5: The New York Giants Acquire...Carlos Pena??

There are very few advantages to owning the worst record in the league.  Having the number one pick in the free agent draft is one of them.  Jim Doyle has owned that pick more often that not over the years, and he has often wasted that pick on aging veterans (like his infamous Rickey Henderson pick) that have no value to the franchise in the future, and who merely serve as stopgaps for the current season.

This past chapter, Doyle had an opportunity to pick up a player that could have had some value to the franchise in 2015, either as a performer or as trade bait.  Instead, he chose to acquire another aging veteran (Carlos Pena) with no future value whatsoever.

The very next team in line, the Kansas City Boulevards, then jumped all over Josh Fields, who is a 28-year-old flame-throwing reliever who is averaging more than 12.5 strikeouts per nine this season, and should have enough trade value this winter to land a decent prospect, at minimum.

To make matters worse, Doyle was offered a prospect in trade for his first baseman, Todd Helton.  That offer was rejected.  Doyle then RELEASED Helton to make room for Pena.  True story.

If you want to know, in a nutshell, why the Giants franchise is on their way to a losing season for the FIFTEENTH year in a row, look no further.