February, 2014
2014
Season Preview
A
year ago at this time, I declared that both the Ozzie and Eck League
pennant races were over before they began. The regular season was
nothing but a formality en route to an inevitable World Series clash
between the New Milford Blazers and Allentown Ridgebacks. Of
course, in the end, neither team made it to the final dance, and the
Southern Cal Slyme unexpectedly walked away with the BDBL trophy.
Boy, is my face red.
To be fair, the rest of the league
hardly fared better than I did in the predictions department. Out
of the fourteen votes submitted to predict the winner of the Person
Division, only one person voted for the SoCal Slyme. That is the
beauty of baseball (and simulated baseball based on random dice rolls.)
There are already plenty of reasons to
be excited about the 2014 season. Tom DiStefano and Gene Patterson
-- winners of FIVE BDBL trophies, collectively -- have joined forces to
form a Superfriends Legion of Doom alliance. For the first time
since 2000, the Ridgebacks franchise will be managed by an actual human
being.
In Chicago, John Gill has already
consumed 75% of his annual allowance of VORP en route to building what
appears to be the only "superteam" in the Eck League. The New
Milford Blazers, with the aid of a home ballpark that is more ridiculous
than ever, appear to be the OL's lone "superteam."
Both the Niagara Locks and Bear Country
Jamboree have assembled starting rotations that are ridiculously loaded.
Several division races appear to be up for grabs, including the Griffin
Division, where the Flagstaff Outlaws will try once again to win their
first division title.
2014 promises to be an exciting season,
filled with twists and turns and intriguing possibilities.
Jump to:
Butler |
Benes |
Griffin | Higuera |
Person
| Hrbek
Kansas Law Dogs
Owner: Chris Luhning
2013 Record: 95-65 (2nd place, EL wild card)
Projected Rotation: Cliff Lee, Doug Fister, Kris
Medlen, Kyle Lohse, Jacob Turner
Bullpen: David Carpenter, Neal Cotts, Joaquin Benoit,
Bryan Shaw, Tim Collins, Tanner Scheppers
Projected Lineup: Eric Hosmer (1B), Carlos Gonzalez
(LF), Carlos Beltran (RF), Edwin Encarnacion (3B), J.J. Hardy (SS),
Salvador Perez/Brian McCann (C), Desmond Jennings/Charlie Blackmon (CF),
Brian Roberts/Nick Franklin (2B)
Strengths:
Luhning spent $31.5 million on three
starting pitchers a year ago, and then spent this winter
offloading all three pitchers. He then used the money he saved to sign
yet another ace. And so the endless Circle of Life continues
unabated. Lee (222+ IP, 2.50 CERA, 537/659 splits) should
be among the best pitchers in the league, and is a likely Cy Young
candidate. Another big winter signing, Encarnacion (621 PA's,
859/916 splits) will join franchise mainstay Gonzalez (436, 875/1004) in
the middle of the Kansas lineup. The Law Dogs bench will likely be
the best in the league, as it will include either Perez or McCann,
Christian Yelich (941 OPS vs. RH), Conor Gillaspie (738 OPS vs. RH),
Nick Franklin (727 OPS vs. RH) and Norichika Aoki (781/703 splits), who
would be the everyday starting center fielder for most teams in the
league.
Weaknesses: This year's rotation pales in comparison to last year's staff.
Fister, Lohse and Medlen are all good, solid, dependable arms, but they
aren't going to win any awards like the four aces this team carried last
year. Defensively, Encarnacion is dreadful at third base, and he's equally
horrific at
first.
Outlook:
There is no Mike Trout in the Kansas lineup (nor is there a Hanley
Ramirez or Giancarlo Stanton), but this lineup has depth that the
Ridgebacks cannot match. Every position in the lineup, from one to
eight, is occupied by a capable hitter. The Kansas bullpen is
solid, and Lee is a legitimate ace. The only area where the Law
Dogs come up short in comparison to the Ridgebacks is in the lower
four-fifths of the starting rotation. And even there, when you
consider the vast difference in innings pitched, Kansas may have the
edge there as well. Regardless of whether of not the Law Dogs win
this division, they are certainly talented enough to make it to the
post-season.
Prediction: 1st place. This is a tough call. If/when the
Ridgebacks made a trade or two and fill some of the glaring holes in their
starting lineup, they could instantly become a better team than the Law
Dogs. However, Kansas has already made all of the trades they will
need to make, which gives them a head start. I'm going with Kansas
to reclaim the division title this season.
Wyoming Ridgebacks
Owners: Tom DiStefano
and Gene Patterson
2013 Record: 109-51 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Anibal Sanchez, Jake Peavy, Alex
Cobb, Chris Capuano, Juan Nicasio
Bullpen: Koji Uehara, Darren O'Day, Nick Vincent, Josh Outman
Projected Lineup: Hanley Ramirez (SS), Mike Trout (CF),
Aramis Ramirez (3B), Giancarlo Stanton (RF), Carlos Quentin (LF), Miguel
Montero/Chris Iannetta (C), Garrett Jones/Mark Reynolds (1B), Justin
Turner/Logan Forsythe (2B)
Strengths:
The new Dynamic Duo of DiStefano and
Patterson managed to add a pair of aces to their starting rotation this
winter, and both came at little cost to the organization. Both
Sanchez (182 IP, 2.63 CERA, 681/536 splits) and Cobb (143+ IP, 2.92 CERA,
677/592 splits) are likely to appear on the Cy Young ballot ten months
from now. Uehara just may own the most ridiculous numbers (74+ IP,
0.79 CERA, 338/466 splits) in baseball. Last year, a Ridgebacks
reliever pitched the entire season without allowing a single earned run.
This year, Uehara could very well repeat that feat. Reigning MVP
(and Babe Ruth award winner) Mike Trout returns to the lineup with
numbers (716 PA's, 954/1000 splits) that may be even more dominant than
last year. And he will be surrounded by two MVP candidates in
Ramirez (336 PA's, 1142/1001 splits) and Stanton (504 PA's, 1006/789
splits).
Weaknesses:
As brilliant as the team's trades were this winter, their auction and
draft strategy left many observers scratching their heads. The
Ridgebacks loaded up with three catchers in the auction, and when the
last bids closed, the team was still left without a first baseman or second
baseman. Heading into Opening Day, both positions remain filled
with a mishmash of below-average role players like Logan Forsythe, Mark
Reynolds and Munenori Kawasaki. Although Hanley Ramirez posted
MVP-caliber numbers, he only has enough usage for a little more than
half a season. When he isn't in the lineup, the shortstop position
will be filled with another mishmash of characters. The same holds
true of Quentin, who also has enough usage for only half a season.
Either the Ridgebacks are waiting to make a big trade to fill those
major holes in their lineup, or they believe they can win with one hand
tied behind their back.
Outlook:
Any team that has Sanchez, Peavy and Cobb
in their rotation, and Trout, Ramirez and Stanton in the starting
lineup, has to be considered a contender. But the weaknesses on
this team cancel out a great deal of their strengths. We aren't used
to seeing the Ridgebacks with so many chinks in their armor. It
will certainly be interesting to see how the Superfriends team manages
this roster as the season progresses.
Prediction:
2nd place, and the EL wild card. Reasons why I believe the Ridgebacks will win this
division: 1) having a real, human manager for 160 games this season, and
2) Tom will undoubtedly pull off another blockbuster trade (or two) to
strengthen this team down the stretch. Reasons why I am predicting
a second-place finish: 1) some of the best players on this team (Hanley
Ramirez, Alex Cobb, Carlos Quentin) will miss a major portion of this
season, and 2) the fact that this team still doesn't have a legitimate first
baseman or second baseman tells me that Tom and Gene aren't all that
confident about their chances of winning this division, and may be
waiting to see how the first couple of chapters unfold before they make
any major moves in one direction or the other.
Cuenca Strangegloves
Owner: Michael Quinn
2013 Record: 57-103 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Yu Darvish, Francisco Liriano,
Trevor Cahill, Marco Estrada, Joe Kelly
Bullpen: David Robertson, Bobby Parnell, Brad Ziegler,
Fernando Rodney, Michael Dunn, Alfredo Simon, Joe Veras
Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner (CF), Alexei Ramirez
(SS), Gaby Sanchez/Adam Lind (1B), Evan Gattis (C), Pedro Alvarez/Nick
Punto (3B), Gerardo Parra/Michael Brantley (LF), Mark Ellis (2B), Aaron
Hicks (RF)
Strengths:
Darvish, the reigning AL Cy Young winner,
is a Godzilla-sized monster. 209+ innings, a 2.70 CERA ad 655/543
splits...in Texas? He will dominate this season. And
speaking of dominating, Liriano held left-handed batters to an OPS of
just 321 last season. Quinn used $2 million in auction money and
used his first three picks of the draft to sign relief pitchers.
As a result, the Cuenca bullpen has both talent and depth.
Weaknesses: Only one batter on this roster owns an OBP above .360, and he
(Sanchez) barely qualifies at .361. Lind leads this team in
slugging percentage at .497 overall. Then there is Gattis at .480,
and Alvarez at .473. But then there's a huge drop-off to .430.
As a team, the Strangegloves hit just .253/.309/.388 in MLB last season.
They were as bad against lefties (.243/.299/.350) as they were against
righties (.258/.313/.402). This offense is going to have great
difficulty surpassing the 573 runs they scored during last year's
103-loss season.
Outlook: Tony Chamra's former franchise has now lost 100+ games two
years in a row, and yet there is cause for optimism in Cuenca. The
good news is that they are heading in the right direction, as this
year's team will not be nearly as bad as they were last year. The
farm club has a couple of potential gems in Austin Meadows and Carlos
Correa, although both young stars are likely years away from
contributing. But Pedro Alvarez is signed through 2017, and
Darvish is signed through 2020, and it is possible that one or both of
those prospects will be Major Leaguers by that time. A similar
convergence of prospects and established stars combined in 2006 to lead
Chamra to a BDBL championship. Perhaps lightning could strike
twice.
Prediction: 3rd place. I believe another 100-loss season may be possible,
but I think this pitching staff will prevent that from happening.
Great Lakes Sphinx
Owner: Scott Romonosky
2013 Record: 66-94 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Scott Feldman, A.J. Griffin, Tim
Lincecum, Nathan Eovaldi, Hector Santiago, Jason Hammel
Bullpen: Yoervis Medina, Al Alburquerque, Kevin Gregg,
Fernando Abad, J.J. Putz, Sandy Rosario
Projected Lineup: Starling Marte (LF), Manny Machado
(3B), Ryan Braun/Avisail Garcia (RF), Carlos Santana (C), Kendrys
Morales (1B), Ian Kinsler (2B), Jhonny Peralta (SS), Austin Jackson (CF)
Strengths:
Marte and Machado are two exciting young
players who offer speed, defense and a bit of power. Braun is only
available for 278 plate appearances, but he will be his usual awesome
self when he is in the lineup. Santana is one of the best
offensive catchers in the league, although this will be the last year
that I can write that, as he is moving out from behind the plate in MLB.
Weaknesses:
Is Scott Feldman really the #1 pitcher in
this starting rotation? Is Yoervis Medina really this team's
closer? I don't see any other options. The subpar quality of
this pitching
staff, combined with the explosive lineups in Wyoming and Kansas, means
Great Lakes will allow a lot of runs this season. And their offense will not score
nearly as many. That is usually a problem.
Outlook: Scott Romonosky has taken an expensive gamble on two
ex-Ridgebacks players. Braun is owed $9.1 million next season.
If he bounces back into MVP form, he will be worth every penny of that
salary. If not, and his performance was all a steroids-enhanced
illusion, it will cost the team $4.6 million just to get rid of him.
The same holds true for ex-Ridgebacks ace Tim Lincecum, who is owed the
same $9.1 million salary next season. This team has a ton of
salary committed to players that have huge question marks hovering over
their heads in terms of their future performance. Josh Reddick is
owed $3.1 million next year, and is coming off a season when he posted
anemic splits of 667/695. Austin Jackson is owed $4.6 million in
2015, but has yet to post a season worthy of that salary. Cliff
Pennington -- Cliff Pennington?? -- is owed $3.1 million next year, and
Jhonny Peralta is due to earn $3.5 million. Jason Hammel's 2015
salary will be $5.5 million. Phil Humber is owed $3.1 million.
That is a LOT of money allocated to some pretty awful ballplayers.
Prediction: 4th place. Yet another rebuilding year in Great Lakes.
70 wins is an awfully low target to aim for, and yet, incredibly, this
franchise has only exceeded 70 wins three times in fifteen seasons.
On the all-time wins list, the Sphinx trail the New York Giants by seven
games. That battle for last place will be the most interesting
thing that happens in Great Lakes this summer.
Southern Cal Slyme
Owner: Bob Sylvester,
Sr.
2013 Record: 100-60 (1st place, BDBL champions)
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke,
Jarrod Parker, Lance Lynn, Dan Straily
Bullpen: Jonathan Papelbon, Joel Peralta, Vin Mazzaro,
Edward Mujica, Charlie Furbush, Jason Grilli, Tyler Lyons
Projected Lineup: Jean Segura (SS), Alex Gordon (LF),
Andrew McCutchen (CF), Brandon Belt (1B), Allen Craig (RF), John
Jaso/Wilin Rosario (C), Jedd Gyorko (2B), Kyle Seager (3B)
Strengths:
The defending champs return their best
pitcher (Hernandez) and two best hitters (McCutchen and Gordon) from
last year's team. ELCS MVP Kyle Lohse has been replaced in the
rotation with Greinke, which looks like an upgrade to me.
Sylvester also added Belt (571 PA, 755/867 splits) to the middle of the
lineup, and Segura (623 PA, 865/716) to the top. Jaso and Rosario
combine to form a rare commodity in the BDBL: a catcher with 800+ splits
against both lefties and righties.
Weaknesses: Seager sports an OPS of just 690 against lefties, and unless
the Slyme slide Gyorko (829 vs. LH) over to third (which would leave a
hole at second), there is no other option available. Gordon owns
some really weird splits, as he is a left-hander with an 877 OPS against
lefties...and only 683 against righties. He would be the ideal
weapon to use against the Blazers while playing in New Milford, but
unfortunately, the Slyme don't play the Blazers this season. He should have a platoon
mate, but there doesn't seem to be a viable option there, either.
The bullpen is solid, but there doesn't seem to be a legitimate closer on the staff, as Papelbon's
best days are behind him.
Outlook:
The 2014 Slyme aren't all that much
different than the team that won the 2013 championship. Last
year's squad led the Eck League in runs scored, and this year, the Slyme
should rank near the top once again. Last year's starting rotation
included Felix Hernandez and a bunch of #3 starters. This year,
the rotation may be even better, given the addition of Greinke.
I'm not suggesting the Slyme are going to win back-to-back
championships, but I do believe they will win this division relatively
easily. And once they get to the Tournament of Randomness,
anything is possible.
Prediction:
1st place. I predicted a second-place finish for the Slyme last
year, and suggested they wouldn't even make it to the post-season.
Of course, they ended up winning a championship (and, in the process,
kicked the dead horse that is Salem's never-ending World Series
failure.) Southern Cal will face tougher competition for the
division title this year, but I still see them as the team to beat.
Niagara Locks
Owner: Mike Ranney
2013 Record: 72-88 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Jose Fernandez, Homer Bailey, David
Price, Shelby Miller, Wily Peralta, Chris Tillman, Jorge de la Rosa
Bullpen: Greg Holland, Cesar Ramos, Manny Parra, Ryan Webb,
Bryan Morris
Projected Lineup: Carlos Gomez (CF), Adrian Beltre
(3B), Nelson Cruz (RF), Victor Martinez (C), Juan Francisco/Ryan
Flaherty (1B), Jurickson Profar (2B), Juan Lagares (LF), Yunel Escobar
(SS)
Strengths:
When David Price -- DAVID PRICE! -- is
your third-best starting pitcher, you know that something has gone
horribly wrong with your fantasy baseball league. Who is the ace
of this pitching staff? Take your pick: Fernandez, Bailey or
Price. You can't go wrong with any of them. And Holland is a
shut-down closer in the bullpen.
Weaknesses:
Man, when I started filling out that
rotation, I thought to myself: the Locks are going to run away with the
entire league, right out of the gate, this year. Then I started
filling out that lineup card. Gomez is a fine addition, but his
power numbers will undoubtedly take a huge hit going from a RH HR factor
of 133 in Milwaukee to 95 in Niagara. Beltre is a legitimate
all-star. Cruz is good. Martinez can hit, although he's an awful
catcher. And then there is a VERY steep drop-off to the bottom of
the lineup. No matter how exceptional this pitching staff is, no team can carry four batters as weak as Francisco, Profar, Lagares and Escobar and expect to compete for a playoffs spot.
Outlook:
Last year, the Akron Ryche hit just .255/.322/.385 as a team, and scored
only 694 runs, yet won their division thanks to stellar pitching and
defense. This is the blueprint for success that the Locks are
looking to follow this season. With those three outstanding
pitchers throwing in every four-game series this season, it will be
incredibly difficult to beat the Locks in any given series. If
Niagara can rank in the middle of the pack in runs scored, they may be
able to surpass the Slyme and win this division. At the very
least, they should win enough games to compete for the wild card.
Prediction:
2nd place. If the standings play out like I've predicted on this
page, then the Locks and Ridgebacks will wage an epic battle over the EL
wild card. On paper, the edge has to go to Wyoming, as they have a
much better balanced team. But it is so hard to believe that a
team with David Price serving as their #3 starter isn't good enough to
make the playoffs.
St. Louis Apostles
Owner: Bobby
Sylvester, Jr.
2013 Record: 79-81 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Mike Minor, A.J. Burnett, Justin
Masterson, Rick Porcello, Dan Haren
Bullpen: Tony Cingrani, Johnny Cueto, Michael Wacha,
Josh Collmenter, Tanner Roark
Projected Lineup: Leonys Martin (CF), Yoenis Cespedes
(LF), Troy Tulowitzki (SS), Brandon Moss/Chris Carter (RF), Albert
Pujols/Kole Calhoun (1B), Anthony Rendon/Pablo Sandoval (3B), Nick
Hundley/Devin Mesoraco (C), Jose Altuve (2B)
Strengths:
With more than 1,700 innings in usage from
pitchers rated as starters, the Apostles have enough starting
pitching to fill two teams. Literally. Not only do the
Apostles have quantity in their rotation, but quality as well.
Minor (204+ IP, 2.76 CERA, 583/680 splits) is a legitimate ace at the
top of the rotation, and Burnett (191 IP, 3.01, 735/547) and Masterson
(193 IP, 3.17, 698/507) are terrific mid-rotation pitchers. This
team has so many starting pitchers that they will likely fill their
bullpen with starters as well. Although there is some debate over
how Diamond Mind handles starters without relief ratings, of the bullpen
pitchers I listed above, only Cueto is not rated as a reliever.
Offensively, second base is the only position where St. Louis will field
a below-average hitter. Tulo sports a 900+ OPS against both
lefties and righties, Cespedes (880 OPS) and Mesoraco (874) kill
lefties, and Moss (904) murders righties.
Weaknesses:
There are some ugly platoon splits in this
lineup that can be easily exploited. Calhoun, Cespedes,
Hundley, Martin, Mesoraco, Moss, Pujols, Rendon and Sandoval all
have platoon splits of 100 points or more. The right field platoon
of Carter and Moss form an all-Pr defensive duo. There is nowhere
to hide either of them, as they are both rated Pr at first base, left
field and right field.
Outlook:
Bobby Sylvester took the age-old concept of building a ballclub around a
foundation of youth and took it to such a drastic extreme that I'm not
sure that any team in BDBL history has ever reached before. Since
this is the 2014 Season Preview and not the Farm Report, I'll save my
commentary about this strategy for another time (perhaps the 2020 Season
Preview?) For now, the Apostles are a good, solid team that should
finish the season somewhere around the .500 mark. All the talk
coming out of St. Louis about a 10-year dynasty will have to wait for at
least another year.
Prediction:
3rd place. My fearless prediction is that Bobby Sylvester will
spend the entire summer making dozens and dozens of trades while
lobbying the league to expand our farm rosters to 100.
South Carolina Sea Cats
Owner: Tony DeCastro
2013 Record: 78-82 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Jon Niese, Brandon McCarthy, Kyle
Kendrick, Ian Kennedy, Jordan Lyles
Bullpen: Aroldis Chapman, Alex Torres, Tony Watson,
Sergio Romo, Jeanmar Gomez
Projected Lineup: Denard Span (CF), Buster Posey (C),
Cody Ross/Nate McLouth (LF), Mark Trumbo/?? (RF), Freddie Freeman (1B),
Kelly Johnson (2B), Trevor Plouffe (3B), Stephen Drew (SS)
Strengths:
Buster Posey is always an asset, unless
he's injured. He was both healthy and productive in MLB 2013, and
he should easily earn his meager $2.1 million salary this season.
Chapman is a flame-throwing madman in the bullpen, and he held lefties to an
anemic 379 OPS last season. Torres (466/470 splits) and Watson
(483/582) posted terrific stats in MLB, and should provide plenty of support for
Chapman in the late innings. The Sea Cats could win a lot of
one-run games thanks to those three.
Weaknesses:
Good god, this has to be the most boring starting rotation in the BDBL.
Jon Niese is the ace of the staff? All five of the pitchers in
this rotation are soft-tossing journeymen who are unlikely to ever
appear on an all-star or Cy Young ballot. The only feature of this team that might
be as boring as their rotation is their lineup. Aside from Posey,
there isn't one above-average hitter on this roster. I had trouble
simply filling out that lineup card, as there is no legitimate leadoff
hitter, and no one to provide any sort of protection for Posey.
I'm betting he will easily lead the league in intentional walks this
season. In right field, I plugged in Trumbo (923 vs. LH) against
lefties, but his .685 OPS against righties suggests he needs a platoon
mate. Unfortunately, I can't find one on this roster.
Outlook:
I think I may have written this before, but the South Carolina Sea Cats are just a boring baseball
team. They remind me of the St. Louis Cardinals in that regard
(except, you know, without all the winning.) South Carolina has
finished in either third or fourth place in this division for seven
years in a row now, and I'm predicting this year will be number eight.
Because Posey was only signed to a four year
contract, he will be a free agent after next season. Given that,
he may represent this team's greatest opportunity to finally pull
themselves out of this death spiral. With the dearth of quality
catching throughout baseball, Posey could be traded for an outstanding
young prospect (or two, or three, or more), who could be used as the
foundation for this franchise's future. Unfortunately for the Sea
Cats, this division is only going to get tougher and more competitive in
the years to come, as both the Apostles and Locks are absolutely loaded
with great young players. I don't envy Tony D's position at all.
Prediction:
4th place, and a chance to "win" the #1 overall farm pick next season.
Tony D., for the love of god, I'm begging you: if you do get that #1
pick, DON'T TRADE IT TO BOBBY!!
Chicago Black Sox
Owner: John Gill
2013 Record: 79-81 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, James Shields,
Jordan Zimmerman, Jeff Samardzija, Jered Weaver
Bullpen: Casey Janssen, Chad Qualls, Jamey Wright, Ryan
Pressly
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury/Ryan Sweeney (CF), Yasiel Puig (LF), Bryce Harper (RF),
Ryan Zimmerman (3B), Prince Fielder (1B), Matt Wieters
(C), Aaron Hill (2B), Erick Aybar (SS)
Strengths:
If you are a left-handed pitcher, the
prospect of having to face Puig (1001 OPS vs. LH), Hill
(911), Wieters (872) and Zimmerman (850) in the same lineup would surely
cause you to call out sick on game day. Not that right-handers
have a much easier time against this lineup, as Harper, Puig, Fielder,
Ellsbury, Zimmerman and Hill each sport an OPS above 780 against righties.
There aren't too many teams in the BDBL with a front three in their
starting rotation better than Bumgarner, Shields and Zimmerman.
And Samardzija and Weaver are, without a doubt, the best #4 and #5
starters in the BDBL.
Weaknesses:
I had originally written a lengthy critique of John Gill's auction
snafu, where he ended up with one too many third basemen and one too
many first basemen. But then he made a couple of trades that
instantly unraveled both logjams. The only weak spots remaining on this team are at
shortstop and catcher, where both Aybar (666 OPS vs. RH) and Wieters (628) are in
desperate need of platoon mates.
Outlook:
Despite lofty expectations in Chicago, the Black Sox finished two games
below .500 in 2013. Their offense didn't score nearly as many runs
as expected, and their pitching staff finished among the bottom third of
the league in ERA. This season, Chicago's pitching is much
(much) stronger, thanks to the additions of Zimmerman and Shields (who actually came to this
team in mid-season last year), and the re-signing of Samardzija, who
blossomed into a solid #2 starter this season. In addition to an
all-aces starting rotation, the Black Sox will also likely score around
800 runs. The competition in this division has
been fierce in recent years; however, this season, it appears Chicago
will run away with it.
Prediction:
1st place. Chicago will be the first
team to capture their division this season, and will likely do so at
some point late in Chapter Five. John Gill has appeared in two
World Series in his career, and I predict 2014 will be his third
appearance. Unfortunately, he will have to deal with the Blazers.
But with Bumgarner pitching in New Milford's cartoon park, and a lineup
filled with lefty-mashers, Chicago should be able to get past them.
At long last, a BDBL World Series parade will be held in the streets of Chicago:
that is my
prediction.
Charlotte Mustangs
Owner: Tony Chamra
2013 Record: 79-81 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Mat Latos, Cole Hamels, Clay
Buchholz, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado
Bullpen: Kenley Jansen, J.P. Howell, Chad Gaudin,
Addison Reed, Jordan Walden, Oliver Perez
Projected Lineup: Andrelton Simmons (SS), Billy Butler
(1B), Justin Upton (RF), Carlos Ruiz (C), Brandon Phillips (2B), Raul
Ibanez (LF), Brett Lawrie (3B), Michael Bourn (CF)
Strengths:
Latos and Hamels are a couple of Cy
Young-caliber studs at the top of the rotation, and Buchholz is at least
half a stud. Teheran and Delgado are very solid at the back of the
rotation, and the bullpen is filled with capable arms, and led by a
lights-out closer in Jansen. In the infield, it is absolutely
outrageous that Simmons didn't get a higher range rating at shortstop
than merely "Ex". Diamond Mind should create a sixth rating
category just for him.
Weaknesses:
I really don't know how to fill out this
lineup card. With his .296 OBP, Simmons isn't a leadoff hitter,
but neither is anyone else on the roster. Butler (.374) owns the
best OBP on the team, so he should be somewhere near the top.
Upton (.263/.354/.464, 27 HR) belongs somewhere in the middle of the
lineup. You could mix and match the rest of the lineup and it
wouldn't make much of a difference. Upton is the only batter on
the roster with an overall OPS above 800. No batter on the roster
owns an OPS above 800 against righties.
Outlook:
Although it was shocking when Gene Patterson abandoned his franchise to
join the Dark Side, it is good to have Tony C. back in the league. Chamra
has mentioned that he felt he
placed too much emphasis on his farm club during his first term in the
BDBL, and that he is now looking
for a more immediate payoff in his second go-around. He wasted no
time putting his own personal stamp on this team, trading the Face of
the Franchise, Bryce Harper, shortly after joining the league. Chamra attempted to make a bold move to strengthen his lineup by bidding
$12 million on catcher Yadier Molina -- $5 million more than any other
team was willing to spend, with the exception of one unfortunate owner (me).
If Chamra had won that auction, the Mustangs' lineup would still be weak,
and he may not have had the money to sign Hamels. So that bid
ended up being a win-win for everyone -- except me, of course. There are plenty of reasons for optimism looking forward,
but for now, this looks like a sub-.500 team to me.
Prediction:
2nd place. The Mustangs are unlikely to compete for a playoffs
spot, but they should remain competitive throughout the season. 85
wins seems like a reasonable outcome for this season, and that will
likely be a few wins shy of the EL wild card leader.
Akron Rÿche
Owner: D.J. Shepard
2013 Record: 91-69 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Ervin Santana,
Jhoulys Chacin
Bullpen: Drew Smyly, Brett Cecil, Tyler Thornburg,
Brett Oberholtzer, Joe Smith, David Hernandez, Nick Hagadone
Projected Lineup: David Freese (3B), Jon Jay (CF), Will
Venable (LF), Jayson Werth (RF), Justin Morneau (1B), Ryan Hanigan (C),
Gordon Beckham (2B), Jordy Mercer (SS)
Strengths:
Shepard made a huge move when he acquired
Santana this winter, and sacrificed only Trevor Bauer in that deal.
Wedged between Verlander and Chacin in the Akron rotation, Santana
provides not only innings (211), but quality innings (675/659 splits.)
Weaknesses: As I wrote on the forum in my "Auction Report", the Ryche went
into the auction needing a catcher, first baseman, second baseman,
shortstop and two starting pitchers, and they left the auction
without filling any of those needs. Akron only had $14.2
million to spend this winter, and Shepard elected not to spend any of
that money
in the auction or in the first five rounds of the draft. The
result is a roster filled with players like Morneau, Hanigan, Beckham
and Mercer, whose only value this season (and possibly next) is filling a spot on the lineup card.
Only three pitchers on the Ryche roster had more than 100 IP in MLB
2013. The remaining 400 or so innings will be filled by the likes
of Tommy Hanson, Taylor Jordan, Brett Oberholtzer, Brad Peacock, Erasmo
Ramirez and Tyler Thornburg.
Outlook:
Akron won a division title last year despite scoring fewer than 700
runs. They will more than likely score fewer than 700 runs again
this season, but I don't foresee the same outcome. The Ryche have
won fewer than 76 games only once in franchise history (way back in
2000), but I think 76 wins will be the best-case scenario for the Ryche
this season.
Prediction:
3rd place. With Verlander scheduled to depart via free agency, I
predict that DJ Shepard will make a major, bold, mid-season trade where
he deals Verlander in exchange for several young hitting prospects.
Just kidding. I think he'll just stand pat and ride it out.
Cleveland Rocks
Owner: Mike Stein
2013 Record: 69-91 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Hiroki Kuroda, Bartolo Colon, Eric Stults, Charlie Morton
Bullpen: Glen Perkins, Mark Melancon, Rex Brothers,
Ross Ohlendorf, Francisco Rodriguez, Kevin Siegrist
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes (SS), Brandon Barnes (CF),
Evan Longoria (3B), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C), Nick Swisher (1B),
Justin Ruggiano (RF), J.B. Shuck (LF), Darwin Barney (2B)
Strengths:
Kuroda and Colon form a nice one-two punch
at the top of the rotation. And since when did Eric Stults become a useful 200+
inning workhorse? When did that happen?Perkins has quietly become
one of the better relievers in baseball, and he is backed by plenty of
good, quality arms in a deep Cleveland bullpen.
Weaknesses: Boy, this offense is...how you say?...shitty. Very, very
shitty. Of the 24 teams in the BDBL, the Rocks rank next to last in
team OPS at just 695 -- and that is AFTER the team acquired Longoria at
the expense of ACE pitcher Jordan Zimmerman. Against right-handers, only Saltalamacchia and Reyes own
an OPS above 800 -- and Reyes is only eligible to play half a season.
After those two, the next best hitter against righties is Longoria, who
just misses that arbitrary cutoff at 799. Then it's Lonnie Chisenhall,
who is sporting an OPS of just 705. And it actually goes downhill
from there! Last year, the Cuenca Strangegloves trailed the BDBL
with just 573 runs scored. I can't imagine any way in which the
Rocks will score more runs than that this season.
Outlook: It is really, really difficult to win if you don't score runs.
With the exceptions of Longoria, Reyes (when he is in the lineup) and Saltalamacchia (when a right-hander is on the mound), the Rocks lineup
is filled with players who would be riding the bench for almost any
other team in the BDBL. That's not good.
Prediction: 4th place. My fearless prediction is that a year from
now, Mike Stein will wonder what the hell he was thinking when he traded
Jordan Zimmerman for Evan Longoria.
Flagstaff Outlaws
Owner: Greg Newgard
2013 Record: 92-68 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: John Lackey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Edwin
Jackson, Tom Milone, Tyson Ross
Bullpen: Luis Avilan, Luke Hochevar, Cody Allen, Brian
Matusz, Jesse Chavez, Jake Diekman, Craig Stammen, Dale Thayer, Alex
Wood
Projected Lineup: Rajai Davis/Josh Hamilton (LF), Adam
Jones (CF), Josh Donaldson (3B), Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Jose Bautista (RF),
Jonathan Lucroy/Derek Norris (C), Ed Lucas (2B), Everth Cabrera/Pedro
Florimon (SS)
Strengths:
This is a very strong lineup from top to
bottom. Davis and Hamilton form an all 800+ platoon in left field,
Jones is an excellent center fielder, and Donaldson, Goldschmidt and
Bautista are all MVP-caliber impact players, both offensively and
defensively. With Goldschmidt at first, Lucas at second, Donaldson
at third and Florimon at short, the Outlaws have an infield defense
where every player owns above-average range. Although many of the
names are unrecognizable to the average fan, the Flagstaff bullpen is
filled with above-average arms -- to the point where there are more than
any team could ever reasonably need. Avilan (383 OPS vs. LH) will
likely act as the left-handed closer, while the surprising Hochevar
(607/452 splits) can be the right-handed half of that committee.
Weaknesses: The starting rotation is missing an ace. I listed Lackey
at the top, but the front four are somewhat interchangeable.
Flagstaff's home ballpark significantly depresses home runs for both
lefties and righties, which mitigates the damage their pitching staff
can inflict. Of course, it also mitigates the amount of damage
this lineup can do.
Outlook: The search for that elusive division title continues in
Flagstaff for the sixteenth year in a row -- and seventh with Newgard at
the helm. Last season, this team won 92 games, which was only
seven shy of their franchise record, and yet they still fell two games
short of that division title. It seems that there is always some
team in the Griffin Division that is constantly one small step ahead of
the Outlaws, whether it is the Undertakers or Padawans. This year,
it looks like it is the Jamboree's turn to be that team that causes Greg Newgard
to pull the remaining hair out of his head. You can be
certain that he will be waging a ferocious fight all the way to the end.
Prediction:
1st place. I'm going out on a limb, here, I know. But
despite the presence of some outstanding players on the Jamboree, I feel
that the Outlaws still have the edge, given their depth of talent.
It will not be an easy battle by any means, but then again, it never is
for Greg Newgard.
Bear Country Jamboree
Owner: Matt Clemm
2013 Record: 67-93 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Matt Harvey, Hisashi Iwakuma,
Patrick Corbin, Wade Miley
Bullpen: Tyler Clippard, Trevor Rosenthal, Jean Machi,
AJ Ramos, Jake McGee, Aaron Loup
Projected Lineup: Marlon Byrd (CF), Matt Holliday (LF),
Miguel Cabrera (3B), Chris Johnson (1B), A.J. Pierzynski (C), Didi
Gregorius (SS), Brian Dozier (2B), Oswaldo Arcia (RF)
Strengths:
Harvey (178+ IP, 1.76 CERA, 456/603
splits) should be in contention for the OL Cy Young award this year,
although his low usage will probably keep him from winning it.
Iwakuma (219+ IP, 2.43, 599/667) posted insane numbers the year after I
released him, and Corbin (208+ IP, 3.14, 554/705) came out of nowhere to
have an all-star-caliber MLB season. Clippard is a legitimate
closer, and he is backed by several quality arms in the bullpen.
Of all 24 teams in the BDBL, the Jamboree have the lowest MLB ERA at
just 2.94. In the lineup, Cabrera is, without question, the best
hitter in the game. Not only did he post the top OPS in baseball
against lefties (1.210), but his OPS vs. righties (1.035) was topped
only by Chris Davis and David Ortiz.
Weaknesses: The Jamboree are about 200 innings short in their starting
rotation. They will either need to make another major trade at
some point this season or fill that hole with some atrocious free agent.
They look to be short of usage on offense as well, and there are some
holes (platoon mates for Dozier and Gregorius, and a right fielder who
can hit) that still need to be filled.
Outlook: I fear those holes mentioned above will be costly to fill, and
I'm not certain that this team, as constituted, would be good enough to
make the playoffs. As last summer unfolded, many people took
notice of the remarkably talented (and cheap) starting rotation the
Jamboree were building. This entire pitching staff is certainly
impressive. And Cabrera is equally impressive. This team is
so close to being great...but they're not quite there yet.
Prediction: 2nd place. This was supposed to be a Season of Destiny
in Bear Country. It isn't every year that four all-star-caliber
pitchers simply drop into your lap so unexpectedly. But I fear
that opportunity may have been squandered.
Los Altos Undertakers
Owner: Jeff Paulson
2013 Record: 94-66 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Chris Archer, Gerrit
Cole, Henderson Alvarez, Zack Wheeler, Martin Perez, Sam Deduno
Bullpen: Sean Doolittle, Steve Cishek, Grant Balfour,
Ryan Cook, Ernesto Frieri, Andrew Miller
Projected Lineup: Jeff Baker/Scooter Gennett (2B),
Torii Hunter (RF), Jason Heyward (CF), Josh Satin/Anthony Rizzo (1B),
Nolan Arrenado/Brett Wallace (3B), Darin Ruf/Willie Bloomquist/Mike Carp
(LF), A.J. Ellis (C), Jimmy Rollins (SS)
Strengths:
Stop me if you've read this before: the
Undertakers' bullpen is chock-filled with one closer after another, each
with sub-600 OPS splits. Doolitte (516/603 splits) and Cishek
(664/459) are as good as any closer in the game on paper, although they
both play in drastic MLB pitcher's parks, so their BDBL numbers may suffer a
little. Although Lester is the only pitcher on the staff who
tossed more than 130 innings last year, the starting rotation is very
strong, as Paulson has pieced together six half-time starters to make
three good ones. Likewise, he has pieced together several
productive platoons using part-time superstars like Baker (1073 OPS vs. LH), Carp (904 vs. RH), Gennett (946 vs. RH), Ruf (863 vs. RH) and Satin
(880 vs. LH).
Weaknesses: Teams that employ this heavy platoon, piecemeal approach are
often easy to exploit in the late innings. Of course, the
Undertakers' bullpen mitigates that damage somewhat. But it's
still difficult to believe, just looking at this roster on paper, that
the Undertakers will have enough quality innings and at-bats to get
through a 160-game season.
Outlook: Last year, it seemed that Jeff Paulson had thrown in the towel
before Opening Day, and was considering 2013 as a rebuilding year.
He went on to win the division title, making my second place prediction
on this page look foolish. This winter, it also appeared that the
Undertakers were in rebuilding mode. They traded Brian McCann,
Matt Cain, Ian Desmond, Carlos Quentin and Bartolo Colon for prospects,
and took on a ton of salary. So why am I skeptical that Paulson is
actually in rebuilding mode? "Fool me once, shame on you," as they
say. You know the rest of it (unless you're George W. Bush.)
Prediction: 3rd place. But it wouldn't surprise me if the
Undertakers win this division.
Kansas City Boulevards
Owner: Scot Zook
2013 Record: 62-98 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Mike
Leake, Zach McAllister, John Danks
Bullpen: Jerry Blevins, Tommy Hunter, Matt Lindstrom,
Logan Ondrusek, Joe Ortiz, Carlos Torres, Brandon Cumpton
Projected Lineup: Alejandro de Aza (CF), Nick Markakis
(LF), Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Dayan Viciedo/Matt Kemp (LF), J.P. Arencibia/Alex
Avila (C), Wil Middlebrooks/Eric Chavez (3B), Mark DeRosa/Neil Walker
(2B), Sean Rodriguez/Adeiny Hechavarria (SS)
Strengths:
You don't normally see a rebuilding team
shell out $15 million for one player unless that team's owner is named
Jim Doyle. But the Boulevards evidently wanted to make a big
splash this season, and they did just that landing a white whale by the
name of Adam Wainwright. Signed at a princely sum of $15 million,
Wainwright (241+ IP, 2.60 CERA, 631/639 splits) is now the highest paid
player in the BDBL. He is followed in the rotation by two very
good starting pitchers in Ryu (192, 3.13, 738/633) and Leake (192, 3.69,
713/725). Zook also shelled out big bucks for first baseman Adrian
Gonzalez, who not only adds value on offense (747/829 splits), but also
carries Ex range in the field.
Weaknesses: There is no obvious candidate for closer in this bullpen.
I listed Blevins at the top because of his 581 OPS against righties, but
he is no closer. Neither, for that matter, is Hunter, Lindstrom,
Ondrusek, nor any of the other options in the bullpen. Of course,
it is possible to win with a "bullpen by committee", but it isn't easy.
The more pressing issue is the offense. Of the 24 teams in the
BDBL, the Boulevards own the second lowest team OPS, at just 678.
There are three players on the roster who are rated at shortstop, and
all three own an OPS below 600 against right-handers. No catcher
on the roster owns an OPS against lefties above 600. Aside from
Gonzalez and Kemp (when he is in the lineup), there are no above-average
hitters in this lineup.
Outlook: 2013 was an ugly transition year for this franchise.
After winning the BDBL trophy in 2011, John Duel took his ball and went
home, leaving the league with a shit stain of a franchise that proved to
be difficult to wash away. Don Woodworth took over the franchise
and somehow managed to make it worse by trading away their one and only
franchise player, Madison Bumgarner, and saddling the team with several
long-term, expensive contracts. After he disappeared, Scot Zook
came out of retirement and began the onerous task of turning this
franchise around. After spending the winter unloading salary like
he was holding a "Going Out of Business" sale, Zook had over $40 million
to spend on the best free agent draft class the league has seen in
years. He then spent over half of that windfall on two 31-year-old
veterans. Time will tell if that decision pays great dividends
over the long haul by keeping this team competitive while they rebuild,
or whether that decision will prove counterproductive to a long-term
strategy of building around a core of cheap, young players.
Prediction: 4th place. No matter how good Wainwright and Ryu are,
they still need some run support in order to win. They aren't
going to get it from this lineup. At this point, the new-look
Boulevards are looking a lot like the old-look Dieppe Marauders.
The only difference is that their expensive new veterans are better.
New Milford Blazers
Owners: Anthony Peburn
2013 Record: 113-47 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, C.J. Wilson, Matt
Moore, Jose Quintana
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Caleb Thielbar, Tom Wilhelmsen,
Chris Withrow, Anthony Swarzak
Projected Lineup: Matt Carpenter (3B), Shin-Soo Choo
(LF), Robinson Cano/?? (2B), Mike Napoli/James Loney (1B), Ryan Raburn/Daniel
Nava (RF), Jason Castro (C), Shane Victorino (CF), Jed Lowrie (SS)
Strengths:
Kershaw has now won two OL Cy Youngs in a
row, and there is no reason to believe he won't win a third. His
numbers this year (236 IP, 1.65 CERA, 477/532) are just ridiculous.
Wilson, Moore and Quintana complete an all-quality, all-lefty rotation.
Landing a legitimate closer like Nathan without having to go "Type H"
was an unexpected gift from the BDBL. Offensively, the Blazers own
the highest overall OPS in the league. There are four hitters in
the lineup with an 800+ OPS against lefties, and at least SEVEN with an
800+ OPS against righties. Of course, it goes without saying that
most of those players are part-timers. Only four hitters on the
New Milford roster had more than 500 at-bats in MLB 2013. But
there are more than enough at-bats here to cobble together a full
season.
The biggest strength within the Blazers
franchise deserves its own paragraph. Nestle's Field
(a.k.a. Cartoon Network Park) has been this team's 26th player for three
years running. This year, Peburn amped up the nonsense by
making his ballpark even MORE cartoon-like. Left-handed hitters now enjoy an 11% boost in
singles at home, a 20% boost in doubles, 15% in triples, and 20% in home
runs. Right-handers, meanwhile, suffer with a 7% decrease in
singles, 5% in doubles, 25% in triples and 25% in home runs.
Needless to say, no ballpark in the history of Major League Baseball has
ever had factors that were anywhere near these numbers. New
Milford's ballpark factors ensure a dramatic improvement in the
performances of every left-handed hitter who plays on this field, as
well as extreme underperformance from every right-handed hitter. Of
course, it is no coincidence that Peburn has spent the past four years
loading up his roster with left-handers. As a
result, we will see (yet again) an extraordinary BABIP average for New
Milford's lefties, along with an increased probability for no-hitters. Nestle's Field has become to the BDBL
what Performance-Enhancing Drugs
are to Major League Baseball.
Weaknesses: Peburn claims that Choo is a full-time player who will
be in the lineup against both lefties and righties. With his 612
OPS against lefties, this seems unlikely. But given the 112-point
boost he will get from his home ballpark, it probably wouldn't hurt to
play him full-time. Just as Cano
mysteriously and miraculously discovered how to hit lefties in the BDBL
last season despite being so inept at the MLB level, Choo could very
well do the same and win the same tainted MVP award at the end of the
season.
Outlook: It would be really interesting to see how well the Blazers
would perform if they didn't have that built-in head start every season.
They could very well be the best team in the league with or without
their cartoon ballpark, but we'll never know for sure. No matter
what they achieve in this league, their record (along with the
artificially-inflated achievements of their players) will always be
tainted as a result. The Blazers will undoubtedly win their fourth division title
in a row this season, as it is nearly impossible to compete against
a team that wins 80% or more of its home games. After that, it's
all about the Tournament of Randomness. And we all know how Peburn
has fared in that arena.
Prediction: 1st place, and the Ozzie League champions*.
Salem Cowtippers
Owner: Mike Glander
2013 Record: 93-67 (2nd place, OL wild card, OL
champions)
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg,
Derek Holland, Bruce Chen, Scott Kazmir
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Justin Wilson, Paco Rodriguez,
Blake Parker, Will Harris, Kelvin Herrera
Projected Lineup: Dustin Pedroia (2B), Ian Desmond
(SS), Yadier Molina (C), Nate Freiman/Justin Smoak (1B), Hunter Pence
(LF), Armando Rios (RF), Juan Uribe (3B), Chris Denorfia/Justin Maxwell
(CF)
Strengths:
Scherzer (214+ IP, 2.07 CERA, 645/494
splits) teams with Strasburg (183, 2.58, 629/552) to form perhaps the
most dominant one-two punch at the top of any starting rotation in the
BDBL. Holland (213, 3.64, 671/722) is a borderline ace, and he
gives the Cowtippers three very strong full-time starters. The
Salem bullpen is filled with quality arms, including three
closer-caliber relievers in Rivera (2.55 CERA, 568/673 splits), Wilson
(2.20, 501/563) and Rodriguez (1.68, 396/649). There isn't a weak
spot in the lineup, especially against left-handers. And
defensively, the Cowtippers feature an Ex arm behind the plate, two
above-average infielders, and two above-average outfielders.
Weaknesses:
The Cowtippers lineup is not nearly as
impressive against right-handers as they are against lefties. Only
Smoak (839 OPS) and Molina (823) own an OPS above 800. The
starting rotation is thin at the bottom, and given his drastic splits,
Kazmir will be easy to exploit. At some point, Salem may need to
acquire another starter.
Outlook:
In fifteen years, the Cowtippers have only experienced two losing seasons, and
only four seasons in which they didn't make the post-season. And
despite appearing in two World Series in the past five years, Salem also
haven't won a division title since George W. Bush was still president.
As mentioned above, with the Blazers all but guaranteed to win at least 75% of their home
games this season, a division title for Salem seems unlikely. So, once
again, Cowtippers fans will have to settle for another wild card invitation
to the Tournament of Randomness and another chance to crush Peburn's
dreams.
Prediction:
2nd place. Again. With Scherzer and Strasburg, the
Cowtippers could do some damage in the ToR. But expecting another
underdog victory against New Milford is asking too much, I think.
Granite State Lightning
Owner: Ryan Glander
2013 Record: 91-69 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Matt Cain, Gio Gonzalez, Tim
Hudson, Andy Pettitte, Erik Bedard
Bullpen: Sonny Gray, Pedro Strop, Junichi Tazawa,
Preston Claiborne, Steve Delabar
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler (CF), Kyle Blanks/Andre
Ethier (RF), David Ortiz (1B), Todd Frazier (3B), John Buck (C), Alex
Presley/Nate Schierholtz (LF), Martin Prado (2B), Eric Sogard (SS)
Strengths:
It is really difficult to find four better
starting pitchers than Cain, Gonzalez, Hudson and Pettitte. Three
of them are at least borderline Hall of Famers. Then again, so are
Jack Morris, Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina. I'm not sure that
I'd want any of those three on my team this year.
Weaknesses:
I listed Gray as the team's closer because
no one else seemed capable of the role. Because he's not rated as
a reliever, DMB may penalize him for that. The bottom half of this
lineup is comprised of below-average hitters. I had a difficult
time even filling out this lineup card. Do you bat Eric Sogard
ahead of Nate Schierholtz? Would it really matter? And it
seems that some positions just don't have a platoon mate. In left
field, for example, I can't see any option other than Alex Presley and
his 634 OPS vs. lefties.
Outlook:
As always, Ryan is more than optimistic
about a championship trophy being paraded around the
Glander house in November. As much as I appreciate his enthusiasm and confidence,
and as much as I don't want to extinguish that confidence, I just can't
help but notice that the numbers simply don't add up. This is a
good team, but it's not a championship team. And I don't believe
that it is a playoffs-caliber team, either.
Prediction:
3rd place. I predicted a third-place finish for this team a year
ago, and Ryan thought I was insane. Although the Lightning won an
impressive 91 games (which would have been enough to win the Benes
Division), they finished in third place, exactly where I predicted they
would finish. I'm predicting the same for this season.
Corona Confederates
Owner: Ed McGowan
2013 Record: 64-96 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Travis Wood, Andrew Cashner, Matt
Garza, C.C. Sabathia, Garrett Richards, Tyler Chatwood
Bullpen: Luke Gregerson, J.J. Hoover, Santiago Casilla,
Andrew Albers, Tim Stauffer
Projected Lineup: Michael Saunders (CF), Howie Kendrick
(2B), Joey Votto (1B), Russell Martin (C), Adam Dunn (LF), A.J. Pollock/Delmon
Young (RF), Michael Young (3B), Zack Cozart (SS)
Strengths:
With his 726 PA's and 824/977 splits, Joey
Votto is among the best hitters in the game. The fact that he also
happens to play a stellar first base is merely a bonus.
Weaknesses:
Aside from Votto, there isn't a single
above-average player on this roster. Martin is a below-average catcher.
Kendrick is being paid $7.6 million to be -- at best -- slightly below
average at second base. Michael Young may have been above average
about three years ago, but at age 36, his time has passed. At
shortstop, Cozart owns Vg range, but is sporting an OPS split of
686/658. On and on it goes, position by position. Even on
the pitching side, this team's ace (Wood) would likely be a #3 or #4
starter for most teams in the BDBL.
Outlook:
The Confederates faced a tough predicament this winter, as they had
committed more money in salary than they had available. They did
the best they could under the circumstances, and managed to field a team
within the salary structure. That is pretty much the best thing I
can say about the Confederates this season.
Prediction:
4th place. Corona's season will end early, but this will give Ed
McGowan a tremendous opportunity to build his team for the future.
Both Sabathia and Kendrick are free agents at the end of this season.
Ravenswood Infidels
Owner: Brian Potrafka
2013 Record: 89-71 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Miguel Gonzalez, Mark Buehrle, Ryan Dempster,
Jeremy Hefner, Carlos Villanueva, Alexi Ogando, Wei-Yin Chen
Bullpen: Jim Henderson, LaTroy Hawkins, Sam LeCure,
Shawn Kelley, Dan Jennings, Casey Fien, Antonio Bastardo, Alfredo
Figaro, Chris Rusin
Projected Lineup: Jason Kipnis (2B), Angel Pagan/Coco
Crisp (CF), Chase Headley (3B), Chris Davis (1B), Wil Myers (RF),
Alfonso Soriano (LF), Jose Lobaton/Wil Nieves (C), Brad Miller/Ronny
Cedeno (SS)
Strengths:
This is a very strong lineup that features
an MVP candidate in Davis, surrounded by several above-average hitters.
Davis owns the highest OPS (1.142) against right-handers in baseball,
and Crisp (857 OPS), Myers (834) and Kipnis (801) tear up righties as
well.
Weaknesses: The pitching staff includes enough pitchers to fill two
rosters, but not a single one is above average. The rotation is
filled with pitchers that would be considered very solid options as #3
or #4 starters, but there is no staff "ace". Nor is there a
legitimate closer in the bullpen (although Henderson did save 28 games
in MLB last season.)
Outlook: The nice part about being a Ravenswood Infidels fan (apart
from the joy of witnessing Potrafka's fiery post-game press conferences)
is that, because your team plays in the Benes Division, you know that
all it takes is just a tiny bit of effort to make it to the post-season.
The Infidels would probably not have a chance of winning any other
division title in the league, but with Johnny Bo slapping another coat
of paint on his rusted-out 1983 Buick Skylark of a franchise, and Nic
Weiss performing some sort of weird economic experiment on his franchise
as part of his thesis, and Jim Doyle...well, being Jim Doyle, the
competition to win this division ain't exactly heated. As a
result, the Infidels should have little trouble winning another division
title.
Prediction: 1st place. Anything can happen in the Tournament of
Randomness, and 90% of the battle is just getting an invitation.
The Infidels have that part covered. The rest is just a dice roll.
Mississippi Meatballs
Owner: Nic Weiss
2013 Record: 54-106 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Yovani Gallardo, Jeremy
Hellickson, Tom Koehler, Mike Pelfrey
Bullpen: Craig Kimbrel, Brandon Kintzler, Nate Jones,
Dane De La Rosa, Dan Otero, Boone Logan, Anthony Varvaro, Adam Ottavino
Projected Lineup: Joe Mauer (C), David Wright (3B), Jay
Bruce (RF), Paul Konerko/Matt Adams (1B), Dominic Brown (RF), Colby
Rasmus (CF), Lucas Duda/Chris Young (LF), Alcides Escobar (SS), Dustin
Ackley (2B)
Strengths:
Sale (214+ IP, 2.92 CERA, 360/699 splits)
is a stud. Yes, that is a 360 OPS against lefties. And yes,
he posted those numbers in the hitter's haven of Chicago. He
should earn a few Cy Young votes this season. Kimbrel is the
greatest closer in baseball, bar none. Mauer, Wright and Bruce are
three very good hitters at the top of the lineup. The Mississippi
defense includes six players who are rated with above-average range.
Weaknesses: There is no offensive talent to be found from the two middle
infielders on this team, Escobar (620/532 splits) and Ackley (664/659).
The rotation is below-average once you get past Sale.
Outlook: It seems as though every expensive, cumbersome, and unwanted
contract in the BDBL somehow ends up in Mississippi. Melky
Cabrera, Starlin Castro, Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider, Yovani Gallardo
and Jeremy Hellickson consume $21 million in salary, but they don't
contribute anywhere near $21 million in value. If you were to add
$21 million to this team's payroll, and if it were spent on an ace
starting pitcher and a decent-hitting shortstop and/or second baseman,
the Meatballs would easily be considered the favorites to win this
division.
Prediction: 2nd place. The Meatballs went from 100+ wins in 2012 to
100+ losses in 2013. The pendulum hasn't swung completely back in
the other direction just yet, but it's getting there.
New York Giants
Owner: Jim Doyle
2013 Record: 65-95 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: R.A. Dickey, Felix Doubront, Jeremy
Guthrie, Paul Maholm, Esmil Rogers, Phil Hughes
Bullpen: Danny Farquhar, Scott Atchison, Jamie Garcia,
Chad Jenkins
Projected Lineup: Omar Infante (2B), Ben Zobrist/Jose
Iglesias (SS), Johnny Gomes (LF), Yan Gomes/Brayan Pena (C), Adam
LaRoche/Todd Helton (1B), Ben Revere/Jarrod Dyson (CF), Drew Stubbs (RF),
Mike Moustakas (3B)
Strengths:
I got nothin'.
Weaknesses: This team is nothing but weaknesses.
Outlook: Given that this franchise has now failed to reach .500
fourteen years in a row, you would think that Jim Doyle would rethink
his strategy and focus on attaining as many good, young, cheap players
as possible so that he can eventually win a few games in this league.
Instead, he spent the winter unloading nearly every good, young
player he had, including Jake Marisnick, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Wil Middlebrooks,
Casey Kelly, Christian Bethancourt, Brett Cecil, Austin Hedges, Jason
Castro and Brandon Belt. He then paid $5.5 million for a
31-year-old singles-hitting second baseman, who is now locked in to a
two-year, $12 million contract. He also took on $11.5 million in
salary next season with the inexplicable acquisition of 32-year-old
singles hitter Ben Zobrist. And, of course, the team still owes $9
million to Brandon Morrow next season, and $6.1 million to Phil Hughes.
Hard as it may seem to believe, this franchise is actually getting
worse. Of course, according to Doyle, things are looking up,
up, up in the great state of New York. He believes that the
franchise is on the verge of entering a long-term dynasty thanks to the
additions of James
Paxton, Noah Syndergaard, Henry Owens and Mike Moustakas. I wish
him the best of luck with that.
Prediction: 3rd place. It's hard to believe this isn't the worst
team in the division. It will be a thrilling battle all season
between the Giants and Flamingos to determine which team sucks most.
The only thing keeping both teams from losing 100 games is the fact that
they get to play each other sixteen times.
Las Vegas Flamingos
Owner: John Bochicchio
2013 Record: 62-98 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Ivan Nova, Dillon Gee, Jeff Locke,
Jason Vargas, Bud Norris
Bullpen: Jason Fraser, Juan Perez, Rafael Soriano,
Jared Burton, Matt Belisle, Robbie Erlin
Projected Lineup: Asdrubal Cabrera (SS), Daniel Murphy
(1B), Michael Cuddyer (RF), Chase Utley (2B), David DeJesus (LF), Ryan
Doumit (C), Alberto Callaspo (3B), Gregor Blanco (CF)
Strengths:
Cuddyer posted some impressive numbers in
MLB. Unfortunately, the Coors Factor will deflate those numbers
quite a bit.
Weaknesses: No above-average pitcher on the entire staff, a defense
littered with "Pr" ranges, and arguably the worst offense in the BDBL.
Outlook: It seems like I write the same thing every year about the
Flamingos, but that's only because every year is the same, tired old
story. Every year, Vegas finally rids themselves of some hugely expensive
contracts they had wasted on aging veteran players who were years past their prime...and
then Johnny Bo spends his new windfall by signing more aging veterans to
hugely expensive contracts. The Circle of Suckiness in Las Vegas
never seems to end. This winter, for example, the Flamingos
finally rid themselves of more than $27 million in contracts tied to
aging vets Nick Swisher, Chase Utley and Bronson Arroyo. So what
did Johnny Bo do? He signed Michael Cuddyer (age 34) and Utley
(34) to contracts that total $14 million this season. Worst of
all, both players are "Type H", which means Vegas is on the hook for $30
MILLION over the next two seasons. Given that neither player is
likely to carry this team to a championship this season, and given the
odds that both players will see a huge decline in production over the
next two years, what was the point of signing them? Likewise, what
was the point of spending $7.5 million on Callaspo and DeJesus (ages 30
and 33, respectively)? Are either of those two going to make a
difference in the playoff hopes of this team? Do either of them
have any upside potential or future value whatsoever? It seems
like the strategy in Vegas is -- and has always been -- to simply plug
the holes in the lineup and rotation with temporary solutions.
Prediction: 4th place, and 100+ losses.
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