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slant.gif (102 bytes) From the Desk of the Commish

Commish

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February, 2014

2014 Season Preview

A year ago at this time, I declared that both the Ozzie and Eck League pennant races were over before they began.  The regular season was nothing but a formality en route to an inevitable World Series clash between the New Milford Blazers and Allentown Ridgebacks.  Of course, in the end, neither team made it to the final dance, and the Southern Cal Slyme unexpectedly walked away with the BDBL trophy.  Boy, is my face red.

To be fair, the rest of the league hardly fared better than I did in the predictions department.  Out of the fourteen votes submitted to predict the winner of the Person Division, only one person voted for the SoCal Slyme.  That is the beauty of baseball (and simulated baseball based on random dice rolls.)

There are already plenty of reasons to be excited about the 2014 season.  Tom DiStefano and Gene Patterson -- winners of FIVE BDBL trophies, collectively -- have joined forces to form a Superfriends Legion of Doom alliance.  For the first time since 2000, the Ridgebacks franchise will be managed by an actual human being.

In Chicago, John Gill has already consumed 75% of his annual allowance of VORP en route to building what appears to be the only "superteam" in the Eck League.  The New Milford Blazers, with the aid of a home ballpark that is more ridiculous than ever, appear to be the OL's lone "superteam."

Both the Niagara Locks and Bear Country Jamboree have assembled starting rotations that are ridiculously loaded.  Several division races appear to be up for grabs, including the Griffin Division, where the Flagstaff Outlaws will try once again to win their first division title.

2014 promises to be an exciting season, filled with twists and turns and intriguing possibilities.

 

Jump to:
Butler | Benes | Griffin | Higuera | Person | Hrbek

HIGUERA DIVISION

Kansas Law Dogs

Owner: Chris Luhning
2013 Record: 95-65 (2nd place, EL wild card)
Projected Rotation: Cliff Lee, Doug Fister, Kris Medlen, Kyle Lohse, Jacob Turner
Bullpen: David Carpenter, Neal Cotts, Joaquin Benoit, Bryan Shaw, Tim Collins, Tanner Scheppers
Projected Lineup: Eric Hosmer (1B), Carlos Gonzalez (LF), Carlos Beltran (RF), Edwin Encarnacion (3B), J.J. Hardy (SS), Salvador Perez/Brian McCann (C), Desmond Jennings/Charlie Blackmon (CF), Brian Roberts/Nick Franklin (2B)

Strengths: Luhning spent $31.5 million on three starting pitchers a year ago, and then spent this winter offloading all three pitchers.  He then used the money he saved to sign yet another ace.  And so the endless Circle of Life continues unabated.  Lee (222+ IP, 2.50 CERA, 537/659 splits) should be among the best pitchers in the league, and is a likely Cy Young candidate.  Another big winter signing, Encarnacion (621 PA's, 859/916 splits) will join franchise mainstay Gonzalez (436, 875/1004) in the middle of the Kansas lineup.  The Law Dogs bench will likely be the best in the league, as it will include either Perez or McCann, Christian Yelich (941 OPS vs. RH), Conor Gillaspie (738 OPS vs. RH), Nick Franklin (727 OPS vs. RH) and Norichika Aoki (781/703 splits), who would be the everyday starting center fielder for most teams in the league.

Weaknesses: This year's rotation pales in comparison to last year's staff.  Fister, Lohse and Medlen are all good, solid, dependable arms, but they aren't going to win any awards like the four aces this team carried last year.  Defensively, Encarnacion is dreadful at third base, and he's equally horrific at first.

Outlook: There is no Mike Trout in the Kansas lineup (nor is there a Hanley Ramirez or Giancarlo Stanton), but this lineup has depth that the Ridgebacks cannot match.  Every position in the lineup, from one to eight, is occupied by a capable hitter.  The Kansas bullpen is solid, and Lee is a legitimate ace.  The only area where the Law Dogs come up short in comparison to the Ridgebacks is in the lower four-fifths of the starting rotation.  And even there, when you consider the vast difference in innings pitched, Kansas may have the edge there as well.  Regardless of whether of not the Law Dogs win this division, they are certainly talented enough to make it to the post-season.

Prediction: 1st place.  This is a tough call.  If/when the Ridgebacks made a trade or two and fill some of the glaring holes in their starting lineup, they could instantly become a better team than the Law Dogs.  However, Kansas has already made all of the trades they will need to make, which gives them a head start.  I'm going with Kansas to reclaim the division title this season.

Wyoming Ridgebacks

Owners: Tom DiStefano and Gene Patterson
2013 Record: 109-51 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Anibal Sanchez, Jake Peavy, Alex Cobb, Chris Capuano, Juan Nicasio
Bullpen: Koji Uehara, Darren O'Day, Nick Vincent, Josh Outman
Projected Lineup: Hanley Ramirez (SS), Mike Trout (CF), Aramis Ramirez (3B), Giancarlo Stanton (RF), Carlos Quentin (LF), Miguel Montero/Chris Iannetta (C), Garrett Jones/Mark Reynolds (1B), Justin Turner/Logan Forsythe (2B)

Strengths: The new Dynamic Duo of DiStefano and Patterson managed to add a pair of aces to their starting rotation this winter, and both came at little cost to the organization.  Both Sanchez (182 IP, 2.63 CERA, 681/536 splits) and Cobb (143+ IP, 2.92 CERA, 677/592 splits) are likely to appear on the Cy Young ballot ten months from now.  Uehara just may own the most ridiculous numbers (74+ IP, 0.79 CERA, 338/466 splits) in baseball.  Last year, a Ridgebacks reliever pitched the entire season without allowing a single earned run.  This year, Uehara could very well repeat that feat.  Reigning MVP (and Babe Ruth award winner) Mike Trout returns to the lineup with numbers (716 PA's, 954/1000 splits) that may be even more dominant than last year.  And he will be surrounded by two MVP candidates in Ramirez (336 PA's, 1142/1001 splits) and Stanton (504 PA's, 1006/789 splits).

Weaknesses: As brilliant as the team's trades were this winter, their auction and draft strategy left many observers scratching their heads.  The Ridgebacks loaded up with three catchers in the auction, and when the last bids closed, the team was still left without a first baseman or second baseman.  Heading into Opening Day, both positions remain filled with a mishmash of below-average role players like Logan Forsythe, Mark Reynolds and Munenori Kawasaki.  Although Hanley Ramirez posted MVP-caliber numbers, he only has enough usage for a little more than half a season.  When he isn't in the lineup, the shortstop position will be filled with another mishmash of characters.  The same holds true of Quentin, who also has enough usage for only half a season.  Either the Ridgebacks are waiting to make a big trade to fill those major holes in their lineup, or they believe they can win with one hand tied behind their back.

Outlook: Any team that has Sanchez, Peavy and Cobb in their rotation, and Trout, Ramirez and Stanton in the starting lineup, has to be considered a contender.  But the weaknesses on this team cancel out a great deal of their strengths.  We aren't used to seeing the Ridgebacks with so many chinks in their armor.  It will certainly be interesting to see how the Superfriends team manages this roster as the season progresses.

Prediction: 2nd place, and the EL wild card.  Reasons why I believe the Ridgebacks will win this division: 1) having a real, human manager for 160 games this season, and 2) Tom will undoubtedly pull off another blockbuster trade (or two) to strengthen this team down the stretch.  Reasons why I am predicting a second-place finish: 1) some of the best players on this team (Hanley Ramirez, Alex Cobb, Carlos Quentin) will miss a major portion of this season, and 2) the fact that this team still doesn't have a legitimate first baseman or second baseman tells me that Tom and Gene aren't all that confident about their chances of winning this division, and may be waiting to see how the first couple of chapters unfold before they make any major moves in one direction or the other.

Cuenca Strangegloves

Owner: Michael Quinn
2013 Record: 57-103 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Yu Darvish, Francisco Liriano, Trevor Cahill, Marco Estrada, Joe Kelly
Bullpen: David Robertson, Bobby Parnell, Brad Ziegler, Fernando Rodney, Michael Dunn, Alfredo Simon, Joe Veras
Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner (CF), Alexei Ramirez (SS), Gaby Sanchez/Adam Lind (1B), Evan Gattis (C), Pedro Alvarez/Nick Punto (3B), Gerardo Parra/Michael Brantley (LF), Mark Ellis (2B), Aaron Hicks (RF)

Strengths: Darvish, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, is a Godzilla-sized monster.  209+ innings, a 2.70 CERA ad 655/543 splits...in Texas?  He will dominate this season.  And speaking of dominating, Liriano held left-handed batters to an OPS of just 321 last season.  Quinn used $2 million in auction money and used his first three picks of the draft to sign relief pitchers.  As a result, the Cuenca bullpen has both talent and depth.

Weaknesses: Only one batter on this roster owns an OBP above .360, and he (Sanchez) barely qualifies at .361.  Lind leads this team in slugging percentage at .497 overall.  Then there is Gattis at .480, and Alvarez at .473.  But then there's a huge drop-off to .430.  As a team, the Strangegloves hit just .253/.309/.388 in MLB last season.  They were as bad against lefties (.243/.299/.350) as they were against righties (.258/.313/.402).  This offense is going to have great difficulty surpassing the 573 runs they scored during last year's 103-loss season.

Outlook: Tony Chamra's former franchise has now lost 100+ games two years in a row, and yet there is cause for optimism in Cuenca.  The good news is that they are heading in the right direction, as this year's team will not be nearly as bad as they were last year.  The farm club has a couple of potential gems in Austin Meadows and Carlos Correa, although both young stars are likely years away from contributing.  But Pedro Alvarez is signed through 2017, and Darvish is signed through 2020, and it is possible that one or both of those prospects will be Major Leaguers by that time.  A similar convergence of prospects and established stars combined in 2006 to lead Chamra to a BDBL championship.  Perhaps lightning could strike twice.

Prediction: 3rd place. I believe another 100-loss season may be possible, but I think this pitching staff will prevent that from happening.

Great Lakes Sphinx

Owner: Scott Romonosky
2013 Record: 66-94 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Scott Feldman, A.J. Griffin, Tim Lincecum, Nathan Eovaldi, Hector Santiago, Jason Hammel
Bullpen: Yoervis Medina, Al Alburquerque, Kevin Gregg, Fernando Abad, J.J. Putz, Sandy Rosario
Projected Lineup: Starling Marte (LF), Manny Machado (3B), Ryan Braun/Avisail Garcia (RF), Carlos Santana (C), Kendrys Morales (1B), Ian Kinsler (2B), Jhonny Peralta (SS), Austin Jackson (CF)

Strengths: Marte and Machado are two exciting young players who offer speed, defense and a bit of power.  Braun is only available for 278 plate appearances, but he will be his usual awesome self when he is in the lineup.  Santana is one of the best offensive catchers in the league, although this will be the last year that I can write that, as he is moving out from behind the plate in MLB.

Weaknesses: Is Scott Feldman really the #1 pitcher in this starting rotation?  Is Yoervis Medina really this team's closer?  I don't see any other options.  The subpar quality of this pitching staff, combined with the explosive lineups in Wyoming and Kansas, means Great Lakes will allow a lot of runs this season.  And their offense will not score nearly as many.  That is usually a problem.

Outlook: Scott Romonosky has taken an expensive gamble on two ex-Ridgebacks players.  Braun is owed $9.1 million next season.  If he bounces back into MVP form, he will be worth every penny of that salary.  If not, and his performance was all a steroids-enhanced illusion, it will cost the team $4.6 million just to get rid of him.  The same holds true for ex-Ridgebacks ace Tim Lincecum, who is owed the same $9.1 million salary next season.  This team has a ton of salary committed to players that have huge question marks hovering over their heads in terms of their future performance.  Josh Reddick is owed $3.1 million next year, and is coming off a season when he posted anemic splits of 667/695.  Austin Jackson is owed $4.6 million in 2015, but has yet to post a season worthy of that salary.  Cliff Pennington -- Cliff Pennington?? -- is owed $3.1 million next year, and Jhonny Peralta is due to earn $3.5 million.  Jason Hammel's 2015 salary will be $5.5 million.  Phil Humber is owed $3.1 million.  That is a LOT of money allocated to some pretty awful ballplayers.

Prediction: 4th place.  Yet another rebuilding year in Great Lakes.  70 wins is an awfully low target to aim for, and yet, incredibly, this franchise has only exceeded 70 wins three times in fifteen seasons.  On the all-time wins list, the Sphinx trail the New York Giants by seven games.  That battle for last place will be the most interesting thing that happens in Great Lakes this summer.

PERSON DIVISION

Southern Cal Slyme

Owner: Bob Sylvester, Sr.
2013 Record: 100-60 (1st place, BDBL champions)
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, Jarrod Parker, Lance Lynn, Dan Straily
Bullpen: Jonathan Papelbon, Joel Peralta, Vin Mazzaro, Edward Mujica, Charlie Furbush, Jason Grilli, Tyler Lyons
Projected Lineup: Jean Segura (SS), Alex Gordon (LF), Andrew McCutchen (CF), Brandon Belt (1B), Allen Craig (RF), John Jaso/Wilin Rosario (C), Jedd Gyorko (2B), Kyle Seager (3B)

Strengths: The defending champs return their best pitcher (Hernandez) and two best hitters (McCutchen and Gordon) from last year's team.  ELCS MVP Kyle Lohse has been replaced in the rotation with Greinke, which looks like an upgrade to me.  Sylvester also added Belt (571 PA, 755/867 splits) to the middle of the lineup, and Segura (623 PA, 865/716) to the top.  Jaso and Rosario combine to form a rare commodity in the BDBL: a catcher with 800+ splits against both lefties and righties.

Weaknesses: Seager sports an OPS of just 690 against lefties, and unless the Slyme slide Gyorko (829 vs. LH) over to third (which would leave a hole at second), there is no other option available.  Gordon owns some really weird splits, as he is a left-hander with an 877 OPS against lefties...and only 683 against righties.  He would be the ideal weapon to use against the Blazers while playing in New Milford, but unfortunately, the Slyme don't play the Blazers this season.  He should have a platoon mate, but there doesn't seem to be a viable option there, either.  The bullpen is solid, but there doesn't seem to be a legitimate closer on the staff, as Papelbon's best days are behind him.

Outlook: The 2014 Slyme aren't all that much different than the team that won the 2013 championship.  Last year's squad led the Eck League in runs scored, and this year, the Slyme should rank near the top once again.  Last year's starting rotation included Felix Hernandez and a bunch of #3 starters.  This year, the rotation may be even better, given the addition of Greinke.  I'm not suggesting the Slyme are going to win back-to-back championships, but I do believe they will win this division relatively easily.  And once they get to the Tournament of Randomness, anything is possible.

Prediction: 1st place.  I predicted a second-place finish for the Slyme last year, and suggested they wouldn't even make it to the post-season.  Of course, they ended up winning a championship (and, in the process, kicked the dead horse that is Salem's never-ending World Series failure.)  Southern Cal will face tougher competition for the division title this year, but I still see them as the team to beat.

Niagara Locks

Owner: Mike Ranney
2013 Record: 72-88 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Jose Fernandez, Homer Bailey, David Price, Shelby Miller, Wily Peralta, Chris Tillman, Jorge de la Rosa
Bullpen: Greg Holland, Cesar Ramos, Manny Parra, Ryan Webb, Bryan Morris
Projected Lineup: Carlos Gomez (CF), Adrian Beltre (3B), Nelson Cruz (RF), Victor Martinez (C), Juan Francisco/Ryan Flaherty (1B), Jurickson Profar (2B), Juan Lagares (LF), Yunel Escobar (SS)

Strengths: When David Price -- DAVID PRICE! -- is your third-best starting pitcher, you know that something has gone horribly wrong with your fantasy baseball league.  Who is the ace of this pitching staff?  Take your pick: Fernandez, Bailey or Price.  You can't go wrong with any of them.  And Holland is a shut-down closer in the bullpen.

Weaknesses: Man, when I started filling out that rotation, I thought to myself: the Locks are going to run away with the entire league, right out of the gate, this year.  Then I started filling out that lineup card.  Gomez is a fine addition, but his power numbers will undoubtedly take a huge hit going from a RH HR factor of 133 in Milwaukee to 95 in Niagara.  Beltre is a legitimate all-star.  Cruz is good.  Martinez can hit, although he's an awful catcher.  And then there is a VERY steep drop-off to the bottom of the lineup.  No matter how exceptional this pitching staff is, no team can carry four batters as weak as Francisco, Profar, Lagares and Escobar and expect to compete for a playoffs spot.

Outlook: Last year, the Akron Ryche hit just .255/.322/.385 as a team, and scored only 694 runs, yet won their division thanks to stellar pitching and defense.  This is the blueprint for success that the Locks are looking to follow this season.  With those three outstanding pitchers throwing in every four-game series this season, it will be incredibly difficult to beat the Locks in any given series.  If Niagara can rank in the middle of the pack in runs scored, they may be able to surpass the Slyme and win this division.  At the very least, they should win enough games to compete for the wild card.

Prediction: 2nd place.  If the standings play out like I've predicted on this page, then the Locks and Ridgebacks will wage an epic battle over the EL wild card.  On paper, the edge has to go to Wyoming, as they have a much better balanced team.  But it is so hard to believe that a team with David Price serving as their #3 starter isn't good enough to make the playoffs.

St. Louis Apostles

Owner: Bobby Sylvester, Jr.
2013 Record: 79-81 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Mike Minor, A.J. Burnett, Justin Masterson, Rick Porcello, Dan Haren
Bullpen: Tony Cingrani, Johnny Cueto, Michael Wacha, Josh Collmenter, Tanner Roark
Projected Lineup: Leonys Martin (CF), Yoenis Cespedes (LF), Troy Tulowitzki (SS), Brandon Moss/Chris Carter (RF), Albert Pujols/Kole Calhoun (1B), Anthony Rendon/Pablo Sandoval (3B), Nick Hundley/Devin Mesoraco (C), Jose Altuve (2B)

Strengths: With more than 1,700 innings in usage from pitchers rated as starters, the Apostles have enough starting pitching to fill two teams.  Literally.  Not only do the Apostles have quantity in their rotation, but quality as well.  Minor (204+ IP, 2.76 CERA, 583/680 splits) is a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation, and Burnett (191 IP, 3.01, 735/547) and Masterson (193 IP, 3.17, 698/507) are terrific mid-rotation pitchers.  This team has so many starting pitchers that they will likely fill their bullpen with starters as well.  Although there is some debate over how Diamond Mind handles starters without relief ratings, of the bullpen pitchers I listed above, only Cueto is not rated as a reliever.  Offensively, second base is the only position where St. Louis will field a below-average hitter.  Tulo sports a 900+ OPS against both lefties and righties, Cespedes (880 OPS) and Mesoraco (874) kill lefties, and Moss (904) murders righties.

Weaknesses: There are some ugly platoon splits in this lineup that can be easily exploited.  Calhoun, Cespedes, Hundley, Martin, Mesoraco, Moss, Pujols, Rendon and Sandoval all have platoon splits of 100 points or more.  The right field platoon of Carter and Moss form an all-Pr defensive duo.  There is nowhere to hide either of them, as they are both rated Pr at first base, left field and right field.

Outlook: Bobby Sylvester took the age-old concept of building a ballclub around a foundation of youth and took it to such a drastic extreme that I'm not sure that any team in BDBL history has ever reached before.  Since this is the 2014 Season Preview and not the Farm Report, I'll save my commentary about this strategy for another time (perhaps the 2020 Season Preview?)  For now, the Apostles are a good, solid team that should finish the season somewhere around the .500 mark.  All the talk coming out of St. Louis about a 10-year dynasty will have to wait for at least another year.

Prediction: 3rd place.  My fearless prediction is that Bobby Sylvester will spend the entire summer making dozens and dozens of trades while lobbying the league to expand our farm rosters to 100.

South Carolina Sea Cats

Owner: Tony DeCastro
2013 Record: 78-82 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Jon Niese, Brandon McCarthy, Kyle Kendrick, Ian Kennedy, Jordan Lyles
Bullpen: Aroldis Chapman, Alex Torres, Tony Watson, Sergio Romo, Jeanmar Gomez
Projected Lineup: Denard Span (CF), Buster Posey (C), Cody Ross/Nate McLouth (LF), Mark Trumbo/?? (RF), Freddie Freeman (1B), Kelly Johnson (2B), Trevor Plouffe (3B), Stephen Drew (SS)

Strengths: Buster Posey is always an asset, unless he's injured.  He was both healthy and productive in MLB 2013, and he should easily earn his meager $2.1 million salary this season.  Chapman is a flame-throwing madman in the bullpen, and he held lefties to an anemic 379 OPS last season.  Torres (466/470 splits) and Watson (483/582) posted terrific stats in MLB, and should provide plenty of support for Chapman in the late innings.  The Sea Cats could win a lot of one-run games thanks to those three.

Weaknesses: Good god, this has to be the most boring starting rotation in the BDBL.  Jon Niese is the ace of the staff?  All five of the pitchers in this rotation are soft-tossing journeymen who are unlikely to ever appear on an all-star or Cy Young ballot.  The only feature of this team that might be as boring as their rotation is their lineup.  Aside from Posey, there isn't one above-average hitter on this roster.  I had trouble simply filling out that lineup card, as there is no legitimate leadoff hitter, and no one to provide any sort of protection for Posey.  I'm betting he will easily lead the league in intentional walks this season.  In right field, I plugged in Trumbo (923 vs. LH) against lefties, but his .685 OPS against righties suggests he needs a platoon mate.  Unfortunately, I can't find one on this roster.

Outlook: I think I may have written this before, but the South Carolina Sea Cats are just a boring baseball team.  They remind me of the St. Louis Cardinals in that regard (except, you know, without all the winning.)  South Carolina has finished in either third or fourth place in this division for seven years in a row now, and I'm predicting this year will be number eight.  Because Posey was only signed to a four year contract, he will be a free agent after next season.  Given that, he may represent this team's greatest opportunity to finally pull themselves out of this death spiral.  With the dearth of quality catching throughout baseball, Posey could be traded for an outstanding young prospect (or two, or three, or more), who could be used as the foundation for this franchise's future.  Unfortunately for the Sea Cats, this division is only going to get tougher and more competitive in the years to come, as both the Apostles and Locks are absolutely loaded with great young players.  I don't envy Tony D's position at all.

Prediction: 4th place, and a chance to "win" the #1 overall farm pick next season.  Tony D., for the love of god, I'm begging you: if you do get that #1 pick, DON'T TRADE IT TO BOBBY!!

HRBEK DIVISION

Chicago Black Sox

Owner: John Gill
2013 Record: 79-81 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, James Shields, Jordan Zimmerman, Jeff Samardzija, Jered Weaver
Bullpen: Casey Janssen, Chad Qualls, Jamey Wright, Ryan Pressly
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury/Ryan Sweeney (CF), Yasiel Puig (LF), Bryce Harper (RF), Ryan Zimmerman (3B), Prince Fielder (1B), Matt Wieters (C), Aaron Hill (2B), Erick Aybar (SS)

Strengths: If you are a left-handed pitcher, the prospect of having to face Puig (1001 OPS vs. LH), Hill (911), Wieters (872) and Zimmerman (850) in the same lineup would surely cause you to call out sick on game day.  Not that right-handers have a much easier time against this lineup, as Harper, Puig, Fielder, Ellsbury, Zimmerman and Hill each sport an OPS above 780 against righties.  There aren't too many teams in the BDBL with a front three in their starting rotation better than Bumgarner, Shields and Zimmerman.  And Samardzija and Weaver are, without a doubt, the best #4 and #5 starters in the BDBL.

Weaknesses: I had originally written a lengthy critique of John Gill's auction snafu, where he ended up with one too many third basemen and one too many first basemen.  But then he made a couple of trades that instantly unraveled both logjams.  The only weak spots remaining on this team are at shortstop and catcher, where both Aybar (666 OPS vs. RH) and Wieters (628) are in desperate need of platoon mates.

Outlook: Despite lofty expectations in Chicago, the Black Sox finished two games below .500 in 2013.  Their offense didn't score nearly as many runs as expected, and their pitching staff finished among the bottom third of the league in ERA.  This season, Chicago's pitching is much (much) stronger, thanks to the additions of Zimmerman and Shields (who actually came to this team in mid-season last year), and the re-signing of Samardzija, who blossomed into a solid #2 starter this season.  In addition to an all-aces starting rotation, the Black Sox will also likely score around 800 runs.  The competition in this division has been fierce in recent years; however, this season, it appears Chicago will run away with it.

Prediction: 1st place.  Chicago will be the first team to capture their division this season, and will likely do so at some point late in Chapter Five.  John Gill has appeared in two World Series in his career, and I predict 2014 will be his third appearance.  Unfortunately, he will have to deal with the Blazers.  But with Bumgarner pitching in New Milford's cartoon park, and a lineup filled with lefty-mashers, Chicago should be able to get past them.  At long last, a BDBL World Series parade will be held in the streets of Chicago: that is my prediction.

Charlotte Mustangs

Owner: Tony Chamra
2013 Record: 79-81 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Mat Latos, Cole Hamels, Clay Buchholz, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado
Bullpen: Kenley Jansen, J.P. Howell, Chad Gaudin, Addison Reed, Jordan Walden, Oliver Perez
Projected Lineup: Andrelton Simmons (SS), Billy Butler (1B), Justin Upton (RF), Carlos Ruiz (C), Brandon Phillips (2B), Raul Ibanez (LF), Brett Lawrie (3B), Michael Bourn (CF)

Strengths: Latos and Hamels are a couple of Cy Young-caliber studs at the top of the rotation, and Buchholz is at least half a stud.  Teheran and Delgado are very solid at the back of the rotation, and the bullpen is filled with capable arms, and led by a lights-out closer in Jansen.  In the infield, it is absolutely outrageous that Simmons didn't get a higher range rating at shortstop than merely "Ex".  Diamond Mind should create a sixth rating category just for him.

Weaknesses: I really don't know how to fill out this lineup card.  With his .296 OBP, Simmons isn't a leadoff hitter, but neither is anyone else on the roster.  Butler (.374) owns the best OBP on the team, so he should be somewhere near the top.  Upton (.263/.354/.464, 27 HR) belongs somewhere in the middle of the lineup.  You could mix and match the rest of the lineup and it wouldn't make much of a difference.  Upton is the only batter on the roster with an overall OPS above 800.  No batter on the roster owns an OPS above 800 against righties.

Outlook: Although it was shocking when Gene Patterson abandoned his franchise to join the Dark Side, it is good to have Tony C. back in the league.  Chamra has mentioned that he felt he placed too much emphasis on his farm club during his first term in the BDBL, and that he is now looking for a more immediate payoff in his second go-around.  He wasted no time putting his own personal stamp on this team, trading the Face of the Franchise, Bryce Harper, shortly after joining the league.  Chamra attempted to make a bold move to strengthen his lineup by bidding $12 million on catcher Yadier Molina -- $5 million more than any other team was willing to spend, with the exception of one unfortunate owner (me).  If Chamra had won that auction, the Mustangs' lineup would still be weak, and he may not have had the money to sign Hamels.  So that bid ended up being a win-win for everyone -- except me, of course.  There are plenty of reasons for optimism looking forward, but for now, this looks like a sub-.500 team to me.

Prediction: 2nd place.  The Mustangs are unlikely to compete for a playoffs spot, but they should remain competitive throughout the season.  85 wins seems like a reasonable outcome for this season, and that will likely be a few wins shy of the EL wild card leader.

Akron Rÿche

Owner: D.J. Shepard
2013 Record: 91-69 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Ervin Santana, Jhoulys Chacin
Bullpen: Drew Smyly, Brett Cecil, Tyler Thornburg, Brett Oberholtzer, Joe Smith, David Hernandez, Nick Hagadone
Projected Lineup: David Freese (3B), Jon Jay (CF), Will Venable (LF), Jayson Werth (RF), Justin Morneau (1B), Ryan Hanigan (C), Gordon Beckham (2B), Jordy Mercer (SS)

Strengths: Shepard made a huge move when he acquired Santana this winter, and sacrificed only Trevor Bauer in that deal.  Wedged between Verlander and Chacin in the Akron rotation, Santana provides not only innings (211), but quality innings (675/659 splits.)

Weaknesses: As I wrote on the forum in my "Auction Report", the Ryche went into the auction needing a catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop and two starting pitchers, and they left the auction without filling any of those needs.  Akron only had $14.2 million to spend this winter, and Shepard elected not to spend any of that money in the auction or in the first five rounds of the draft.  The result is a roster filled with players like Morneau, Hanigan, Beckham and Mercer, whose only value this season (and possibly next) is filling a spot on the lineup card.  Only three pitchers on the Ryche roster had more than 100 IP in MLB 2013.  The remaining 400 or so innings will be filled by the likes of Tommy Hanson, Taylor Jordan, Brett Oberholtzer, Brad Peacock, Erasmo Ramirez and Tyler Thornburg.

Outlook: Akron won a division title last year despite scoring fewer than 700 runs.  They will more than likely score fewer than 700 runs again this season, but I don't foresee the same outcome.  The Ryche have won fewer than 76 games only once in franchise history (way back in 2000), but I think 76 wins will be the best-case scenario for the Ryche this season.

Prediction: 3rd place.  With Verlander scheduled to depart via free agency, I predict that DJ Shepard will make a major, bold, mid-season trade where he deals Verlander in exchange for several young hitting prospects.  Just kidding.  I think he'll just stand pat and ride it out.

Cleveland Rocks

Owner: Mike Stein
2013 Record: 69-91 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Hiroki Kuroda, Bartolo Colon, Eric Stults, Charlie Morton
Bullpen: Glen Perkins, Mark Melancon, Rex Brothers, Ross Ohlendorf, Francisco Rodriguez, Kevin Siegrist
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes (SS), Brandon Barnes (CF), Evan Longoria (3B), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C), Nick Swisher (1B), Justin Ruggiano (RF), J.B. Shuck (LF), Darwin Barney (2B)

Strengths: Kuroda and Colon form a nice one-two punch at the top of the rotation.  And since when did Eric Stults become a useful 200+ inning workhorse?  When did that happen?Perkins has quietly become one of the better relievers in baseball, and he is backed by plenty of good, quality arms in a deep Cleveland bullpen.

Weaknesses: Boy, this offense is...how you say?...shitty.  Very, very shitty.  Of the 24 teams in the BDBL, the Rocks rank next to last in team OPS at just 695 -- and that is AFTER the team acquired Longoria at the expense of ACE pitcher Jordan Zimmerman.  Against right-handers, only Saltalamacchia and Reyes own an OPS above 800 -- and Reyes is only eligible to play half a season.  After those two, the next best hitter against righties is Longoria, who just misses that arbitrary cutoff at 799.  Then it's Lonnie Chisenhall, who is sporting an OPS of just 705.  And it actually goes downhill from there!  Last year, the Cuenca Strangegloves trailed the BDBL with just 573 runs scored.  I can't imagine any way in which the Rocks will score more runs than that this season.

Outlook: It is really, really difficult to win if you don't score runs.  With the exceptions of Longoria, Reyes (when he is in the lineup) and Saltalamacchia (when a right-hander is on the mound), the Rocks lineup is filled with players who would be riding the bench for almost any other team in the BDBL.  That's not good.

Prediction: 4th place.  My fearless prediction is that a year from now, Mike Stein will wonder what the hell he was thinking when he traded Jordan Zimmerman for Evan Longoria.

 
GRIFFIN DIVISION

Flagstaff Outlaws

Owner: Greg Newgard
2013 Record: 92-68 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: John Lackey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Edwin Jackson, Tom Milone, Tyson Ross
Bullpen: Luis Avilan, Luke Hochevar, Cody Allen, Brian Matusz, Jesse Chavez, Jake Diekman, Craig Stammen, Dale Thayer, Alex Wood
Projected Lineup: Rajai Davis/Josh Hamilton (LF), Adam Jones (CF), Josh Donaldson (3B), Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Jose Bautista (RF), Jonathan Lucroy/Derek Norris (C), Ed Lucas (2B), Everth Cabrera/Pedro Florimon (SS)

Strengths: This is a very strong lineup from top to bottom.  Davis and Hamilton form an all 800+ platoon in left field, Jones is an excellent center fielder, and Donaldson, Goldschmidt and Bautista are all MVP-caliber impact players, both offensively and defensively.  With Goldschmidt at first, Lucas at second, Donaldson at third and Florimon at short, the Outlaws have an infield defense where every player owns above-average range.  Although many of the names are unrecognizable to the average fan, the Flagstaff bullpen is filled with above-average arms -- to the point where there are more than any team could ever reasonably need.  Avilan (383 OPS vs. LH) will likely act as the left-handed closer, while the surprising Hochevar (607/452 splits) can be the right-handed half of that committee.

Weaknesses: The starting rotation is missing an ace.  I listed Lackey at the top, but the front four are somewhat interchangeable.  Flagstaff's home ballpark significantly depresses home runs for both lefties and righties, which mitigates the damage their pitching staff can inflict.  Of course, it also mitigates the amount of damage this lineup can do.

Outlook: The search for that elusive division title continues in Flagstaff for the sixteenth year in a row -- and seventh with Newgard at the helm.  Last season, this team won 92 games, which was only seven shy of their franchise record, and yet they still fell two games short of that division title.  It seems that there is always some team in the Griffin Division that is constantly one small step ahead of the Outlaws, whether it is the Undertakers or Padawans.  This year, it looks like it is the Jamboree's turn to be that team that causes Greg Newgard to pull the remaining hair out of his head.  You can be certain that he will be waging a ferocious fight all the way to the end.

Prediction: 1st place.  I'm going out on a limb, here, I know.  But despite the presence of some outstanding players on the Jamboree, I feel that the Outlaws still have the edge, given their depth of talent.  It will not be an easy battle by any means, but then again, it never is for Greg Newgard.

Bear Country Jamboree

Owner: Matt Clemm
2013 Record: 67-93 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Matt Harvey, Hisashi Iwakuma, Patrick Corbin, Wade Miley
Bullpen: Tyler Clippard, Trevor Rosenthal, Jean Machi, AJ Ramos, Jake McGee, Aaron Loup
Projected Lineup: Marlon Byrd (CF), Matt Holliday (LF), Miguel Cabrera (3B), Chris Johnson (1B), A.J. Pierzynski (C), Didi Gregorius (SS), Brian Dozier (2B), Oswaldo Arcia (RF)

Strengths: Harvey (178+ IP, 1.76 CERA, 456/603 splits) should be in contention for the OL Cy Young award this year, although his low usage will probably keep him from winning it.  Iwakuma (219+ IP, 2.43, 599/667) posted insane numbers the year after I released him, and Corbin (208+ IP, 3.14, 554/705) came out of nowhere to have an all-star-caliber MLB season.  Clippard is a legitimate closer, and he is backed by several quality arms in the bullpen.  Of all 24 teams in the BDBL, the Jamboree have the lowest MLB ERA at just 2.94.  In the lineup, Cabrera is, without question, the best hitter in the game.  Not only did he post the top OPS in baseball against lefties (1.210), but his OPS vs. righties (1.035) was topped only by Chris Davis and David Ortiz.

Weaknesses: The Jamboree are about 200 innings short in their starting rotation.  They will either need to make another major trade at some point this season or fill that hole with some atrocious free agent.  They look to be short of usage on offense as well, and there are some holes (platoon mates for Dozier and Gregorius, and a right fielder who can hit) that still need to be filled.

Outlook: I fear those holes mentioned above will be costly to fill, and I'm not certain that this team, as constituted, would be good enough to make the playoffs.  As last summer unfolded, many people took notice of the remarkably talented (and cheap) starting rotation the Jamboree were building.  This entire pitching staff is certainly impressive.  And Cabrera is equally impressive.  This team is so close to being great...but they're not quite there yet.

Prediction: 2nd place.  This was supposed to be a Season of Destiny in Bear Country.  It isn't every year that four all-star-caliber pitchers simply drop into your lap so unexpectedly.  But I fear that opportunity may have been squandered.

Los Altos Undertakers

Owner: Jeff Paulson
2013 Record: 94-66 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole, Henderson Alvarez, Zack Wheeler, Martin Perez, Sam Deduno
Bullpen: Sean Doolittle, Steve Cishek, Grant Balfour, Ryan Cook, Ernesto Frieri, Andrew Miller
Projected Lineup: Jeff Baker/Scooter Gennett (2B), Torii Hunter (RF), Jason Heyward (CF), Josh Satin/Anthony Rizzo (1B), Nolan Arrenado/Brett Wallace (3B), Darin Ruf/Willie Bloomquist/Mike Carp (LF), A.J. Ellis (C), Jimmy Rollins (SS)

Strengths: Stop me if you've read this before: the Undertakers' bullpen is chock-filled with one closer after another, each with sub-600 OPS splits.  Doolitte (516/603 splits) and Cishek (664/459) are as good as any closer in the game on paper, although they both play in drastic MLB pitcher's parks, so their BDBL numbers may suffer a little.  Although Lester is the only pitcher on the staff who tossed more than 130 innings last year, the starting rotation is very strong, as Paulson has pieced together six half-time starters to make three good ones.  Likewise, he has pieced together several productive platoons using part-time superstars like Baker (1073 OPS vs. LH), Carp (904 vs. RH), Gennett (946 vs. RH), Ruf (863 vs. RH) and Satin (880 vs. LH).

Weaknesses: Teams that employ this heavy platoon, piecemeal approach are often easy to exploit in the late innings.  Of course, the Undertakers' bullpen mitigates that damage somewhat.  But it's still difficult to believe, just looking at this roster on paper, that the Undertakers will have enough quality innings and at-bats to get through a 160-game season.

Outlook: Last year, it seemed that Jeff Paulson had thrown in the towel before Opening Day, and was considering 2013 as a rebuilding year.  He went on to win the division title, making my second place prediction on this page look foolish.  This winter, it also appeared that the Undertakers were in rebuilding mode.  They traded Brian McCann, Matt Cain, Ian Desmond, Carlos Quentin and Bartolo Colon for prospects, and took on a ton of salary.  So why am I skeptical that Paulson is actually in rebuilding mode?  "Fool me once, shame on you," as they say.  You know the rest of it (unless you're George W. Bush.)

Prediction: 3rd place.  But it wouldn't surprise me if the Undertakers win this division.

Kansas City Boulevards

Owner: Scot Zook
2013 Record: 62-98 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Mike Leake, Zach McAllister, John Danks
Bullpen: Jerry Blevins, Tommy Hunter, Matt Lindstrom, Logan Ondrusek, Joe Ortiz, Carlos Torres, Brandon Cumpton
Projected Lineup: Alejandro de Aza (CF), Nick Markakis (LF), Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Dayan Viciedo/Matt Kemp (LF), J.P. Arencibia/Alex Avila (C), Wil Middlebrooks/Eric Chavez (3B), Mark DeRosa/Neil Walker (2B), Sean Rodriguez/Adeiny Hechavarria (SS)

Strengths: You don't normally see a rebuilding team shell out $15 million for one player unless that team's owner is named Jim Doyle.  But the Boulevards evidently wanted to make a big splash this season, and they did just that landing a white whale by the name of Adam Wainwright.  Signed at a princely sum of $15 million, Wainwright (241+ IP, 2.60 CERA, 631/639 splits) is now the highest paid player in the BDBL.  He is followed in the rotation by two very good starting pitchers in Ryu (192, 3.13, 738/633) and Leake (192, 3.69, 713/725).  Zook also shelled out big bucks for first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who not only adds value on offense (747/829 splits), but also carries Ex range in the field.

Weaknesses: There is no obvious candidate for closer in this bullpen.  I listed Blevins at the top because of his 581 OPS against righties, but he is no closer.  Neither, for that matter, is Hunter, Lindstrom, Ondrusek, nor any of the other options in the bullpen.  Of course, it is possible to win with a "bullpen by committee", but it isn't easy.  The more pressing issue is the offense.  Of the 24 teams in the BDBL, the Boulevards own the second lowest team OPS, at just 678.  There are three players on the roster who are rated at shortstop, and all three own an OPS below 600 against right-handers.  No catcher on the roster owns an OPS against lefties above 600.  Aside from Gonzalez and Kemp (when he is in the lineup), there are no above-average hitters in this lineup.

Outlook: 2013 was an ugly transition year for this franchise.  After winning the BDBL trophy in 2011, John Duel took his ball and went home, leaving the league with a shit stain of a franchise that proved to be difficult to wash away.  Don Woodworth took over the franchise and somehow managed to make it worse by trading away their one and only franchise player, Madison Bumgarner, and saddling the team with several long-term, expensive contracts.  After he disappeared, Scot Zook came out of retirement and began the onerous task of turning this franchise around.  After spending the winter unloading salary like he was holding a "Going Out of Business" sale, Zook had over $40 million to spend on the best free agent draft class the league has seen in years.  He then spent over half of that windfall on two 31-year-old veterans.  Time will tell if that decision pays great dividends over the long haul by keeping this team competitive while they rebuild, or whether that decision will prove counterproductive to a long-term strategy of building around a core of cheap, young players.

Prediction: 4th place.  No matter how good Wainwright and Ryu are, they still need some run support in order to win.  They aren't going to get it from this lineup.  At this point, the new-look Boulevards are looking a lot like the old-look Dieppe Marauders.  The only difference is that their expensive new veterans are better.

BUTLER DIVISION

New Milford Blazers

Owners: Anthony Peburn
2013 Record: 113-47 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, C.J. Wilson, Matt Moore, Jose Quintana
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Caleb Thielbar, Tom Wilhelmsen, Chris Withrow, Anthony Swarzak
Projected Lineup: Matt Carpenter (3B), Shin-Soo Choo (LF), Robinson Cano/?? (2B), Mike Napoli/James Loney (1B), Ryan Raburn/Daniel Nava (RF), Jason Castro (C), Shane Victorino (CF), Jed Lowrie (SS)

Strengths: Kershaw has now won two OL Cy Youngs in a row, and there is no reason to believe he won't win a third.  His numbers this year (236 IP, 1.65 CERA, 477/532) are just ridiculous.  Wilson, Moore and Quintana complete an all-quality, all-lefty rotation.  Landing a legitimate closer like Nathan without having to go "Type H" was an unexpected gift from the BDBL.  Offensively, the Blazers own the highest overall OPS in the league.  There are four hitters in the lineup with an 800+ OPS against lefties, and at least SEVEN with an 800+ OPS against righties.  Of course, it goes without saying that most of those players are part-timers.  Only four hitters on the New Milford roster had more than 500 at-bats in MLB 2013.  But there are more than enough at-bats here to cobble together a full season.

The biggest strength within the Blazers franchise deserves its own paragraph.  Nestle's Field (a.k.a. Cartoon Network Park) has been this team's 26th player for three years running.  This year, Peburn amped up the nonsense by making his ballpark even MORE cartoon-like.  Left-handed hitters now enjoy an 11% boost in singles at home, a 20% boost in doubles, 15% in triples, and 20% in home runs.  Right-handers, meanwhile, suffer with a 7% decrease in singles, 5% in doubles, 25% in triples and 25% in home runs.  Needless to say, no ballpark in the history of Major League Baseball has ever had factors that were anywhere near these numbers.  New Milford's ballpark factors ensure a dramatic improvement in the performances of every left-handed hitter who plays on this field, as well as extreme underperformance from every right-handed hitter.  Of course, it is no coincidence that Peburn has spent the past four years loading up his roster with left-handers.  As a result, we will see (yet again) an extraordinary BABIP average for New Milford's lefties, along with an increased probability for no-hitters.  Nestle's Field has become to the BDBL what Performance-Enhancing Drugs are to Major League Baseball.

Weaknesses: Peburn claims that Choo is a full-time player who will be in the lineup against both lefties and righties.  With his 612 OPS against lefties, this seems unlikely.  But given the 112-point boost he will get from his home ballpark, it probably wouldn't hurt to play him full-time.  Just as Cano mysteriously and miraculously discovered how to hit lefties in the BDBL last season despite being so inept at the MLB level, Choo could very well do the same and win the same tainted MVP award at the end of the season.

Outlook: It would be really interesting to see how well the Blazers would perform if they didn't have that built-in head start every season.  They could very well be the best team in the league with or without their cartoon ballpark, but we'll never know for sure.  No matter what they achieve in this league, their record (along with the artificially-inflated achievements of their players) will always be tainted as a result.  The Blazers will undoubtedly win their fourth division title in a row this season, as it is nearly impossible to compete against a team that wins 80% or more of its home games.  After that, it's all about the Tournament of Randomness.  And we all know how Peburn has fared in that arena.

Prediction: 1st place, and the Ozzie League champions*.

Salem Cowtippers

Owner: Mike Glander
2013 Record: 93-67 (2nd place, OL wild card, OL champions)
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Derek Holland, Bruce Chen, Scott Kazmir
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Justin Wilson, Paco Rodriguez, Blake Parker, Will Harris, Kelvin Herrera
Projected Lineup: Dustin Pedroia (2B), Ian Desmond (SS), Yadier Molina (C), Nate Freiman/Justin Smoak (1B), Hunter Pence (LF), Armando Rios (RF), Juan Uribe (3B), Chris Denorfia/Justin Maxwell (CF)

Strengths: Scherzer (214+ IP, 2.07 CERA, 645/494 splits) teams with Strasburg (183, 2.58, 629/552) to form perhaps the most dominant one-two punch at the top of any starting rotation in the BDBL.  Holland (213, 3.64, 671/722) is a borderline ace, and he gives the Cowtippers three very strong full-time starters.  The Salem bullpen is filled with quality arms, including three closer-caliber relievers in Rivera (2.55 CERA, 568/673 splits), Wilson (2.20, 501/563) and Rodriguez (1.68, 396/649).  There isn't a weak spot in the lineup, especially against left-handers.  And defensively, the Cowtippers feature an Ex arm behind the plate, two above-average infielders, and two above-average outfielders.

Weaknesses: The Cowtippers lineup is not nearly as impressive against right-handers as they are against lefties.  Only Smoak (839 OPS) and Molina (823) own an OPS above 800.  The starting rotation is thin at the bottom, and given his drastic splits, Kazmir will be easy to exploit.  At some point, Salem may need to acquire another starter.

Outlook: In fifteen years, the Cowtippers have only experienced two losing seasons, and only four seasons in which they didn't make the post-season.  And despite appearing in two World Series in the past five years, Salem also haven't won a division title since George W. Bush was still president.  As mentioned above, with the Blazers all but guaranteed to win at least 75% of their home games this season, a division title for Salem seems unlikely.  So, once again, Cowtippers fans will have to settle for another wild card invitation to the Tournament of Randomness and another chance to crush Peburn's dreams.

Prediction: 2nd place.  Again.  With Scherzer and Strasburg, the Cowtippers could do some damage in the ToR.  But expecting another underdog victory against New Milford is asking too much, I think.

Granite State Lightning

Owner: Ryan Glander
2013 Record: 91-69 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Matt Cain, Gio Gonzalez, Tim Hudson, Andy Pettitte, Erik Bedard
Bullpen: Sonny Gray, Pedro Strop, Junichi Tazawa, Preston Claiborne, Steve Delabar
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler (CF), Kyle Blanks/Andre Ethier (RF), David Ortiz (1B), Todd Frazier (3B), John Buck (C), Alex Presley/Nate Schierholtz (LF), Martin Prado (2B), Eric Sogard (SS)

Strengths: It is really difficult to find four better starting pitchers than Cain, Gonzalez, Hudson and Pettitte.  Three of them are at least borderline Hall of Famers.  Then again, so are Jack Morris, Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina.  I'm not sure that I'd want any of those three on my team this year.

Weaknesses: I listed Gray as the team's closer because no one else seemed capable of the role.  Because he's not rated as a reliever, DMB may penalize him for that.  The bottom half of this lineup is comprised of below-average hitters.  I had a difficult time even filling out this lineup card.  Do you bat Eric Sogard ahead of Nate Schierholtz?  Would it really matter?  And it seems that some positions just don't have a platoon mate.  In left field, for example, I can't see any option other than Alex Presley and his 634 OPS vs. lefties.

Outlook: As always, Ryan is more than optimistic about a championship trophy being paraded around the Glander house in November.  As much as I appreciate his enthusiasm and confidence, and as much as I don't want to extinguish that confidence, I just can't help but notice that the numbers simply don't add up.  This is a good team, but it's not a championship team.  And I don't believe that it is a playoffs-caliber team, either.

Prediction: 3rd place.  I predicted a third-place finish for this team a year ago, and Ryan thought I was insane. Although the Lightning won an impressive 91 games (which would have been enough to win the Benes Division), they finished in third place, exactly where I predicted they would finish.  I'm predicting the same for this season.

Corona Confederates

Owner: Ed McGowan
2013 Record: 64-96 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Travis Wood, Andrew Cashner, Matt Garza, C.C. Sabathia, Garrett Richards, Tyler Chatwood
Bullpen: Luke Gregerson, J.J. Hoover, Santiago Casilla, Andrew Albers, Tim Stauffer
Projected Lineup: Michael Saunders (CF), Howie Kendrick (2B), Joey Votto (1B), Russell Martin (C), Adam Dunn (LF), A.J. Pollock/Delmon Young (RF), Michael Young (3B), Zack Cozart (SS)

Strengths: With his 726 PA's and 824/977 splits, Joey Votto is among the best hitters in the game.  The fact that he also happens to play a stellar first base is merely a bonus.

Weaknesses: Aside from Votto, there isn't a single above-average player on this roster. Martin is a below-average catcher.  Kendrick is being paid $7.6 million to be -- at best -- slightly below average at second base.  Michael Young may have been above average about three years ago, but at age 36, his time has passed.  At shortstop, Cozart owns Vg range, but is sporting an OPS split of 686/658.  On and on it goes, position by position.  Even on the pitching side, this team's ace (Wood) would likely be a #3 or #4 starter for most teams in the BDBL.

Outlook: The Confederates faced a tough predicament this winter, as they had committed more money in salary than they had available.  They did the best they could under the circumstances, and managed to field a team within the salary structure.  That is pretty much the best thing I can say about the Confederates this season.

Prediction: 4th place.  Corona's season will end early, but this will give Ed McGowan a tremendous opportunity to build his team for the future.  Both Sabathia and Kendrick are free agents at the end of this season.

BENES DIVISION

Ravenswood Infidels

Owner: Brian Potrafka
2013 Record: 89-71 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Miguel Gonzalez, Mark Buehrle, Ryan Dempster, Jeremy Hefner, Carlos Villanueva, Alexi Ogando, Wei-Yin Chen
Bullpen: Jim Henderson, LaTroy Hawkins, Sam LeCure, Shawn Kelley, Dan Jennings, Casey Fien, Antonio Bastardo, Alfredo Figaro, Chris Rusin
Projected Lineup: Jason Kipnis (2B), Angel Pagan/Coco Crisp (CF), Chase Headley (3B), Chris Davis (1B), Wil Myers (RF), Alfonso Soriano (LF), Jose Lobaton/Wil Nieves (C), Brad Miller/Ronny Cedeno (SS)

Strengths: This is a very strong lineup that features an MVP candidate in Davis, surrounded by several above-average hitters.  Davis owns the highest OPS (1.142) against right-handers in baseball, and Crisp (857 OPS), Myers (834) and Kipnis (801) tear up righties as well. 

Weaknesses: The pitching staff includes enough pitchers to fill two rosters, but not a single one is above average.  The rotation is filled with pitchers that would be considered very solid options as #3 or #4 starters, but there is no staff "ace".  Nor is there a legitimate closer in the bullpen (although Henderson did save 28 games in MLB last season.)

Outlook: The nice part about being a Ravenswood Infidels fan (apart from the joy of witnessing Potrafka's fiery post-game press conferences) is that, because your team plays in the Benes Division, you know that all it takes is just a tiny bit of effort to make it to the post-season.  The Infidels would probably not have a chance of winning any other division title in the league, but with Johnny Bo slapping another coat of paint on his rusted-out 1983 Buick Skylark of a franchise, and Nic Weiss performing some sort of weird economic experiment on his franchise as part of his thesis, and Jim Doyle...well, being Jim Doyle, the competition to win this division ain't exactly heated.  As a result, the Infidels should have little trouble winning another division title.

Prediction: 1st place.  Anything can happen in the Tournament of Randomness, and 90% of the battle is just getting an invitation.  The Infidels have that part covered.  The rest is just a dice roll.

Mississippi Meatballs

Owner: Nic Weiss
2013 Record: 54-106 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Yovani Gallardo, Jeremy Hellickson, Tom Koehler, Mike Pelfrey
Bullpen: Craig Kimbrel, Brandon Kintzler, Nate Jones, Dane De La Rosa, Dan Otero, Boone Logan, Anthony Varvaro, Adam Ottavino
Projected Lineup: Joe Mauer (C), David Wright (3B), Jay Bruce (RF), Paul Konerko/Matt Adams (1B), Dominic Brown (RF), Colby Rasmus (CF), Lucas Duda/Chris Young (LF), Alcides Escobar (SS), Dustin Ackley (2B)

Strengths: Sale (214+ IP, 2.92 CERA, 360/699 splits) is a stud.  Yes, that is a 360 OPS against lefties.  And yes, he posted those numbers in the hitter's haven of Chicago.  He should earn a few Cy Young votes this season.  Kimbrel is the greatest closer in baseball, bar none.  Mauer, Wright and Bruce are three very good hitters at the top of the lineup.  The Mississippi defense includes six players who are rated with above-average range.

Weaknesses: There is no offensive talent to be found from the two middle infielders on this team, Escobar (620/532 splits) and Ackley (664/659).  The rotation is below-average once you get past Sale.

Outlook: It seems as though every expensive, cumbersome, and unwanted contract in the BDBL somehow ends up in Mississippi.  Melky Cabrera, Starlin Castro, Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider, Yovani Gallardo and Jeremy Hellickson consume $21 million in salary, but they don't contribute anywhere near $21 million in value.  If you were to add $21 million to this team's payroll, and if it were spent on an ace starting pitcher and a decent-hitting shortstop and/or second baseman, the Meatballs would easily be considered the favorites to win this division.

Prediction: 2nd place.  The Meatballs went from 100+ wins in 2012 to 100+ losses in 2013.  The pendulum hasn't swung completely back in the other direction just yet, but it's getting there.

New York Giants

Owner: Jim Doyle
2013 Record: 65-95 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: R.A. Dickey, Felix Doubront, Jeremy Guthrie, Paul Maholm, Esmil Rogers, Phil Hughes
Bullpen: Danny Farquhar, Scott Atchison, Jamie Garcia, Chad Jenkins
Projected Lineup: Omar Infante (2B), Ben Zobrist/Jose Iglesias (SS), Johnny Gomes (LF), Yan Gomes/Brayan Pena (C), Adam LaRoche/Todd Helton (1B), Ben Revere/Jarrod Dyson (CF), Drew Stubbs (RF), Mike Moustakas (3B)

Strengths: I got nothin'.

Weaknesses: This team is nothing but weaknesses.

Outlook: Given that this franchise has now failed to reach .500 fourteen years in a row, you would think that Jim Doyle would rethink his strategy and focus on attaining as many good, young, cheap players as possible so that he can eventually win a few games in this league.  Instead, he spent the winter unloading nearly every good, young player he had, including Jake Marisnick, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Wil Middlebrooks, Casey Kelly, Christian Bethancourt, Brett Cecil, Austin Hedges, Jason Castro and Brandon Belt.  He then paid $5.5 million for a 31-year-old singles-hitting second baseman, who is now locked in to a two-year, $12 million contract.  He also took on $11.5 million in salary next season with the inexplicable acquisition of 32-year-old singles hitter Ben Zobrist.  And, of course, the team still owes $9 million to Brandon Morrow next season, and $6.1 million to Phil Hughes.  Hard as it may seem to believe, this franchise is actually getting worse.  Of course, according to Doyle, things are looking up, up, up in the great state of New York.  He believes that the franchise is on the verge of entering a long-term dynasty thanks to the additions of James Paxton, Noah Syndergaard, Henry Owens and Mike Moustakas.  I wish him the best of luck with that.

Prediction: 3rd place.  It's hard to believe this isn't the worst team in the division.  It will be a thrilling battle all season between the Giants and Flamingos to determine which team sucks most.  The only thing keeping both teams from losing 100 games is the fact that they get to play each other sixteen times.

Las Vegas Flamingos

Owner: John Bochicchio
2013 Record: 62-98 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Ivan Nova, Dillon Gee, Jeff Locke, Jason Vargas, Bud Norris
Bullpen: Jason Fraser, Juan Perez, Rafael Soriano, Jared Burton, Matt Belisle, Robbie Erlin
Projected Lineup: Asdrubal Cabrera (SS), Daniel Murphy (1B), Michael Cuddyer (RF), Chase Utley (2B), David DeJesus (LF), Ryan Doumit (C), Alberto Callaspo (3B), Gregor Blanco (CF)

Strengths: Cuddyer posted some impressive numbers in MLB.  Unfortunately, the Coors Factor will deflate those numbers quite a bit.

Weaknesses: No above-average pitcher on the entire staff, a defense littered with "Pr" ranges, and arguably the worst offense in the BDBL.

Outlook: It seems like I write the same thing every year about the Flamingos, but that's only because every year is the same, tired old story.  Every year, Vegas finally rids themselves of some hugely expensive contracts they had wasted on aging veteran players who were years past their prime...and then Johnny Bo spends his new windfall by signing more aging veterans to hugely expensive contracts.  The Circle of Suckiness in Las Vegas never seems to end.  This winter, for example, the Flamingos finally rid themselves of more than $27 million in contracts tied to aging vets Nick Swisher, Chase Utley and Bronson Arroyo.  So what did Johnny Bo do?  He signed Michael Cuddyer (age 34) and Utley (34) to contracts that total $14 million this season.  Worst of all, both players are "Type H", which means Vegas is on the hook for $30 MILLION over the next two seasons.  Given that neither player is likely to carry this team to a championship this season, and given the odds that both players will see a huge decline in production over the next two years, what was the point of signing them?  Likewise, what was the point of spending $7.5 million on Callaspo and DeJesus (ages 30 and 33, respectively)?  Are either of those two going to make a difference in the playoff hopes of this team?  Do either of them have any upside potential or future value whatsoever?  It seems like the strategy in Vegas is -- and has always been -- to simply plug the holes in the lineup and rotation with temporary solutions.

Prediction: 4th place, and 100+ losses.