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slant.gif (102 bytes) From the Desk of the Commish

Commish

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June, 2014

Chapter Three Recap

Players of the Chapter

The Cleveland Rocks went 15-9 in Chapter Three, and a big reason for that was the heroic performance of Evan Longoria.  Longo hit .383/.416/.777 on the chapter, with 9 homers and 31 ribbies.  His 31.1 runs created easily led the EL in Chapter Three.

Like Longoria, Miguel Cabrera is a third baseman who was acquired in a blockbuster trade last winter.  And like Longoria, Cabrera is the Hitter of the Chapter.  He carried the Bear Country Jamboree to a BDBL-best 17-7 record, and allowed his team to gain ground on the Flagstaff Outlaws and get back in the division race.  Cabrera hit .388/.469/.857 on the chapter, with 13 homers, 26 RBI's and a whopping 40.2 runs created.

On the pitching side, the EL Pitcher of the Chapter is no longer a member of the EL, thanks to Bobby Sylvester's never-ending obsession with collecting prospects.  Tanner Roarke, who is the newest member of the New Milford Blazers, went 3-1 in Chapter Three, with a microscopic 0.36 ERA, and led the Eck League in all three of the triple-slash categories: .134/.207/.134.  Hey, Bobby: BITE ME.

For the Ozzie League, Salem's own Max Scherzer took home the Pitcher of the Chapter award for his sparkling 2-0 record, 0.75 ERA, and .114/.231/.165 triple-slash line.  Despite that effort, the Cowtippers still managed to go just 12-12 in Chapter Three.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Overkill

o·ver·kill /ˈōvərˌkil/ noun: the amount by which destruction or the capacity for destruction exceeds what is necessary.

If ever there were a better word to describe the Troy Tulowitzki trade, I cannot imagine one.  The Southern California Slyme already have a championship trophy sitting on their shelf.  They already own the best record in the BDBL.  They already enjoy a 14-game lead in their division.  They already lead the BDBL in runs differential.  They are already scoring more runs than any other team in the BDBL -- and 53 more runs than the next best team in the Eck League.

So why the hell do they need Troy Tulowitzki?

The simple answer, of course, is: they don't.  They need Tulo like Tom Brady needs a better looking wife.  Their current shortstop, Jean Segura, ranks seventh in the BDBL in runs created, among shortstops.  This was hardly an area of weakness that cried out for a remedy.

Tulo ranks #2 in that category, and there is little doubt, of course, that he represents an upgrade.  SoCal will likely create around fifteen more runs in the second half than Segura would have, but that isn't important.  The Slyme will cruise to the playoffs regardless of who is playing shortstop.

Tulo was added to give SoCal yet another weapon in the playoffs -- and because it didn't cost the team much to get him.  Kevin Gausman is a fine pitcher, and he will likely be a valuable asset for years to come, but the Slyme don't need him next year, as their rotation is set with Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Parker and some guy named Masahiro Tanaka.  After that, it's too far in the future to worry about.

Another possible benefit from adding Tulo -- and Aroldis Chapman -- this chapter is that a few more wins in the second half could be enough to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  There is one problem with that, however: the Slyme have to make it to the World Series for that to happen.  BDBL history is filled with examples of seemingly unstoppable teams that were eliminated early in the playoffs, and the Slyme could be another one of those teams in 2014.  Adding Tulo makes that possibility a little less daunting.

Story #2: Bobby Sylvester's Never-Ending Revolving Door of Prospects

In a story that is directly related to the first, Bobby Sylvester continued to add to his collection of prospects this chapter, adding not only Gausman in the deal above, but also prospects Jimmy Nelson, Kenta Maeda, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Schwarber and (through one of those technically illegal deals that Bobby makes at least twice a year) Mike Matuella.

This ever-growing prospect collection reached the point of overkill several months ago, and yet there is no evidence to suggest that Bobby is anywhere near the point of sitting back and resting with the content knowledge that he has built an unstoppable juggernaut that will dominate the BDBL for decades to come.

Let's step back for a moment and take a look at what it is that young Sylvester has built.  If one were to envision the starting lineup for the 2019 Apostles, it might look something like this:

C: Jorge Alfaro / Kyle Schwarber / Travis d'Arnaud
1B: Jose Abreu
2B: Anthony Rendon
3B: Miguel Sano
LF: Nick Castellanos
CF: Clint Frazier
RF: Oscar Taveras / David Dahl

That is certainly an impressive lineup, based on scouting reports and projection.  How likely are we to see such a lineup in 2019?  Well, take a look at this Salem Cowtippers Farm Report from 2010, and note the "2014 Projected Roster" that is highlighted halfway down the page.  How many of those names are still Cowtippers?  Just one: Stephen Strasburg.

Now, you could argue that Bobby is less likely to trade away all of these players than I was in 2010...but this is Bobby we're talking about.  Has he ever gone more than a week without trading?

On the pitching side, the Apostles have so many prospects that adding another in the Tanner Roarke deal was nothing but completely unnecessary overkill: Trevor Bauer, Tony Cingrani, Josh Collmenter, Gausman, Lucas Giolito, Andrew Heaney, Maeda, Carlos Martinez, Matuella, Mike Minor, Rafael Monteo, Nelson, Odorizzi, Carlos Rodon, Kohl Stewart and Michael Wacha.  What, was not having Nelson in this long list causing sleepless nights at the Sylvester home?

The question I can't help but ask is how long it will take before the Apostles Dynasty officially begins.  With a starting rotation of Johnny Cueto, Minor, Wacha, Dan Haren, Martinez and A.J. Burnett, the 2015 Apostles already have more than enough starting pitching to compete.  And with Abreu, Yoenis Cespedes, Brandon Moss and Anthony Rendon, they already have a decent offensive core as well.  They'll also have a ton of money to spend on free agents.

Is it time to panic yet?  No...not yet.  But soon.

Story #3: Another Ozzie League Ass-Whoopin'

As Tom DiStefano so helpfully reported earlier this week, the Ozzie League took one on the chin in interleague play again, going 88-104 (.458) against the Ecklings.  This marks the sixth year in a row the EL has dominated interleague play, and the ninth time in ten years.

Now, I could write an entire article to explain why this has happened, but I have neither the time nor motivation (nor stomach) to do so.  Here's all you really need to know:

Team 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total
NMB  95 90 97 111 113 50 556
LAU  113 113 106 75 94 41 542
SCA  99 103 81 84 100 54 521
KAN  99 62 105 106 95 41 508
WYO 78 109 55 107 109 47 505
STL  103 98 83 97 79 33 493
SAL  76 95 95 84 93 46 489
CLT 94 93 109 76 79 34 485
CHI  93 77 71 102 79 44 466
AKR  77 76 81 96 91 40 461
RAV  66 110 68 82 89 45 460
FLG 102 50 96 73 92 47 460
MIS  72 90 86 100 54 44 446
COR  70 96 66 80 64 37 413
KCB 72 72 77 95 62 28 406
CLE  83 83 61 66 69 39 401
GLS  61 70 88 65 66 48 398
LVF  79 61 84 64 62 36 386
NIA  67 54 81 61 72 40 375
SCS  46 65 80 68 78 34 371
NYG  64 64 74 79 65 24 370
BCJ  79 60 52 62 67 43 363
CUE 70 75 68 47 57 34 351
GSL  62 54 56 40 91 31 334

Not only has the Eck League won more games (110 more!) over the past six years, thanks to interleague play, but you can see that seven Eck League teams have consistently produced during that time, while four of the bottom seven teams in this list are Ozzie League teams that have managed just two winning seasons between the four of them -- combined!

In other words, the Eck League is split between seven teams that consistently field competitive teams year in and year out, three teams that waver between success and failure, and two that consistently lose every year.

The Ozzie League consists of three teams that consistently win each season, three teams that fluctuate between winning and losing, and the other HALF of the league that has -- with rare exception -- suffered through a losing season for six years in a row.

'Nuff said.

Story #4: Ravenswood Upgrades

Although the trade announcement didn't receive a single comment, the deal between the Infidels and Undertakers may turn out to be the most significant trade of the chapter.  The Infidels are currently leading the Benes Division, but by only one game over the Mississippi Meatballs.  Upgrading their rotation from Mark Buehrle (0-7, 4.96 ERA in 90+ IP) to Jon Lester (5-8, 4.47 ERA in 112+ IP for Los Altos) could have profound effects on that division race.

Left-handed hitters have been pounding Buehrle this season, to the tune of .339/.385/.509.  Lester (.317/.357/.414) hasn't fared much better, but his MLB numbers (.237/.278/.392) suggest that he has the potential to pitch much better.

Not only did the Infidels upgrade this chapter, but their main competition managed to downgrade in the middle of the season.  Mississippi traded away one of their two closers, Aroldis Chapman, in exchange for prospects.  They then replaced Chapman in the bullpen with Neal Cotts.  Cotts is an excellent reliever, and should perform very well in the setup role, but he's no Chapman.

The Cowtippers are currently holding onto a slim two game lead in the OL wild card race, and given that the Meatballs are currently in second place, these trades may affect that race as well.

Story #5: Loaded for Bear

The Jamboree managed to pick up two games in the division race last chapter, and now trail the Flagstaff Outlaws by four games.  This past chapter, GM Matt Clemm made a couple of deals that should strengthen his team in the second half.

The Jamboree offense ranks #3 in the OL in runs scored, #1 in batting average, #2 in on-base, #1 in slugging, and they have hit 20 more home runs than any other team in the league.  In other words, offense hasn't been a problem for them this season.  One of their only weaknesses in the lineup was in right field, where Oswaldo Arcia was hitting just .259/.313/.461 overall, and a meager .236/.233/.427 against lefties.

Enter Torii Hunter:

Overall: .307/.347/.514
vs. LH: .319/.385/.552
vs. RH: .300/.324/.493

That extra offense may come in handy if Bear Country's starting pitching doesn't make a dramatic turnaround.  Three-fifths of the Jamboree rotation have been downright awful this season:

Ricky Nolasco: 5.50 ERA in 88+ IP
Pat Corbin: 6.10 ERA in 97+ IP
Wade Miley: 6.13 ERA in 91 IP

Each of these pitchers is sporting an ERA in the BDBL that is between 2-3 runs higher than his MLB ERA.  Even with the addition of Hunter, it will be incredibly difficult to make up those four games in the standings if those three pitchers continue to perform so horrendously.

Story #6: Salem Wins the Votto

The Cowtippers offense went into a tailspin in Chapter Three.  They hit just .253/.315/.395 as a team, scored just 87 runs (an average of 3.6 per game), were shut out six times, and were held to two runs or less nine times in 24 games.  It's incredibly difficult to win when you don't score runs.

When I looked at the numbers, our performance against right-handers stood out like a sore thumb.  And the key culprit in that performance was our first baseman -- and cleanup hitter -- Justin Smoak.  I had high hopes for Smoak coming into the season, based on the vast differences between his MLB home ballpark in Seattle and Salem's configuration.  But his performance failed to match those expectations:

MLB, overall: .238/.334/.414
BDBL, overall: .213/.309/.361

MLB, vs. RH: .260/.361/.477
BDBL, vs. RH: .207/.308/.358

Joey Votto is no longer the MVP-caliber hitter he was a year or two ago, but he still represents a massive improvement over Smoak.  Of course, with New Milford winning 85% of their home games, winning the division title simply isn't possible, but Votto should help Salem turn their offense around in the second half and create a little more wriggle room in the wild card race.

Story #7: Cartoon Network Park: Still Ridiculous

As mentioned in the story above, the Blazers are still winning 85% of their home games at their ridiculous, physics-defying ballpark.  Their road winning percentage has climbed all the way to .400, which gives them only a 450-point spread between home and road winning percentage.

'Nuff said.