March, 2014

2014 BDBL Farm Report

We have officially entered uncharted waters, people.  The implications are unknowable, but the potential impact upon this league could be devastating.  I am talking, of course, about the St. Louis Apostles farm system.

Young Bobby Sylvester has spent the past two years making countless trades, stockpiling an absurd number of top prospects, and convincing owner after owner to give him their number one draft picks in both the pre-season and mid-season farm drafts, all in a megalomaniacal effort to build the greatest farm system this league has ever seen.  The end result is both impressive and horrifying.

In addition to their talented young players who are no longer eligible for this farm report (such as Anthony Rendon, Tony Cingrani and Michael Wacha), and in addition to the spectacularly talented players who are not eligible for this report because they are still amateurs (Carlos Rodon and Jeff Hoffman), the Apostles now own no fewer than TWENTY players who are ranked in this report.  This includes two top-10 players, four among the top-25, and eight in the top-50.  Without a doubt, the Apostles' farm would have ranked even higher if Jose Dariel Abreu (ranked #72 in this report) and Carlos Martinez (#61) had been included in every top prospect list.

Given the points system that I use in this annual report, the Apostles own a greater share (16%) of the total overall points than any team in the history of this report.  The implication of having one team amass so much young talent seems daunting; however, history has shown mixed results for teams that have dominated the Farm Report to this degree.

Two years ago, the Los Altos Undertakers owned 15% of the total points in the Farm Report.  That year, Los Altos owned eight top-25 players, which remains a league record.  Two years later, only Julio Teheran, Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray have made a significant impact on the league so far.  Of course, there is still time for Jameson Taillon, Bubba Starling, Nolan Arendado and others from that farm club to make a dent in our record book.  But one note of importance is that half of Los Altos' eight players in the top-25 have already been traded.  Given Bobby's addiction to trading, it seems likely that most of his top farm players will never play a single game in an Apostles uniform.

The 2007 Undertakers amassed 13% of the overall points total in the Farm Report.  Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Matt Garza, Hunter Pence and Elvis Andrus have all made an impact in the BDBL to varying degrees, but all at different times.  For example, Gordon had a solid season in 2009, but then fell off the map for the next three years.  Upton had a stellar 2010 campaign, but hasn't been nearly as dominant since then.  Garza won 20 games in 2009, and again in 2010, but then fell into a BDBL slump, and has yet to fully rebound.  Pence has topped an 800 OPS just once, in 2012.  And Andrus' value is almost entirely on defense, as he has only topped a 700 OPS (barely) once, in 2012.  So even if the Undertakers hadn't traded every one of those players (which they did), their top farm players only had two years in which more than one made a significant impact.

In 2005, the Villanova Mustangs also held a 13% share of the total points.  Although you could point to their 2006 BDBL championship as proof that great farm systems produce trophies, the fact is that only two of their top prospects in 2005 (Joe Blanton and Nick Swisher) made significant contributions to their 2006 championship.  Of course, several others from that farm team (Chad Billingsley, Curtis Granderson, Brian McCann, Joey Votto and Adam Wainwright) eventually made major contributions in the BDBL...but mostly for other teams.

Let's face it: playing for a different team is the fate of most top prospects.  The temptation for a contending team to trade a top prospect in exchange for immediate benefit is usually too great.  And because even the cream of the crop tends to flame out quickly, it is usually beneficial for a team to sell high in exchange for a known entity.  Remember that once upon a time, Jeremy Hellickson, Jesus Montero, Brian Matusz, Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider, Cameron Maybin, Joba Chamberlain, Franklin Morales, Delmon Young, Brandon Wood and Andrew Miller were all recently considered to be among the top ten prospects in baseball.

Could St. Louis be on the verge of a decade-long dominance of this league, fueled by the most frightening collection of young talent the league has ever seen?  Possibly.  Historically speaking, it isn't likely.  But just because something hasn't yet happened, it doesn't necessarily mean it's impossible.

By now, you should all know how this Farm Report works.  Each year, I collect the top prospect lists from a select group of experts.  This year, those experts include ESPN's Keith Law, Baseball HQ's Rob Gordon, the Baseball Prospectus staff and the staff of Baseball America.  I then assign 100 points to the #1 player on each list, 99 points to #2, and so on, down to one point for #100.  I then tally all of the points for every team in the BDBL, which results in something that looks like this:

#1 St. Louis Apostles
Ranked prospects: Oscar Taveras (3), Miguel Sano (7), Lucas Giolito (19), Nick Castellanos (25), Andrew Heaney (29), Travis d'Arnaud (33), Clint Frazier (41), Jorge Alfaro (43), Kohl Stewart (54), Carlos Martinez (61), Jose Abreu (72), David Dahl (78), Rafael Montero (82), Michael Choice (85), Matt Davidson (89), Trevor Bauer (91), Wilmer Flores (105), Marcus Semien (126), Bubba Starling (128), Courtney Hawkins (131)
Unranked prospects: Mike Olt, Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Rodon

Let's assess the potential damage, shall we?  It would be difficult to imagine a future where Taveras and Sano aren't major stars.  Both young men simply ooze with talent, albeit both are currently battling injuries.  Taveras looks like a left-handed Vladimir Guerrero, and Sano has enough power potential to average 40 homers a year in his prime.  Add another power hitter in Abreu, who is already projected to post Paul Konerko-like numbers in the majors this season, and that gives St. Louis three impact hitters.

On the pitching side, Rodon is one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and he likely would have ranked among the top 25 prospects on this list if he were eligible.  He could be the next David Price.  Or, he could be the next Andrew Miller.  At this point, he seems like a safe bet to be more like Price.  Martinez has elite stuff, and has already proven himself at the major league level.  He will be an asset to the Apostles whether he stays in the bullpen or makes the move to the starting rotation.

For all intents and purposes, those are the "sure things" on this farm club.  Next, we move on to the players with extremely high ceilings, but who are not nearly as certain to reach those ceilings as the first group.  Giolito only has one year of professional ball under his belt, but already appears to have #1 starter potential.  And although Frazier graduated from high school less than a year ago, he already looks as though he could be an impact player.

I haven't even mentioned Castellanos, Heaney, d'Arnaud, Alfaro, Stewart, or any of the NINE other ranked players on this farm club.  I think I've discussed the St. Louis farm system enough already.  It's time to give another team the spotlight.

#2 Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Byron Buxton (1), Xander Bogaerts (2), Archie Bradley (8), Robert Stephenson (19), Kyle Zimmer (19), Raul Mondesi (30), Tyler Glasnow (34), Jonathan Singleton (60), Josmil Pinto (97), Domingo Santana (132)
Unranked prospects: Lewis Brinson, Braxton Davidson, Gabriel Guerrero, Slade Heathcott, Ryan McMahon, Mitch Nay, Luiz Gohara

It seems almost unfair that I haven't even mentioned the Niagara farm system up until now.  Earlier, I mentioned that the Apostles own a record high of 16% of the total points in this survey.  Well, the Locks happen to own 12.5% of the total, which is the all-time record for the second place team in this survey.  In fact, that 12.5% proportion would have been good enough for #1 on this list in nine of the past fourteen seasons.

In the fifteen years that I have compiled this report, no team has ever owned both the #1 and #2 overall farm players in baseball...until now.  Buxton was the unanimous #1-ranked prospect in baseball according to all four of the experts in our panel.  Ben Badler at Baseball America recently wrote that Buxton's ceiling is "a potential Hall of Famer.  That takes great health and longevity to get there, but it's five legitimate plus or better tools.  80 speed, and a potential 80 bat and glove, at a premium position, with an advanced approach for this age."  It's difficult to find a more glowing scouting report.  Although Bogaerts doesn't earn quite the same glowing reports, it is rare to find any scout with anything negative to say about him, unless they're talking about his defense at short.

How many farm clubs have owned three of the top ten prospects in baseball?  Aside from Niagara, the answer is one: the 2001 Los Altos Undertakers.  That year, the Los Altos farm included Ben Sheets (#2), Jon Rauch (#4) and Carlos Pena (#9).  Niagara has become the second team in league history to own three top-ten farm players, thanks to their off-season acquisition of Bradley.  Like Sheets and Rauch, Bradley is a right-hander who was selected early in the first round of the MLB draft, but that's where the similarities end.  Bradley was drafted out of high school, and thus his pro career began at a much earlier age.  With his high-90's fastball and knee-buckling curve, he reminds me more of a young Kerry Wood.

As if the Locks didn't own enough great young pitching with Bradley, Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller, Wily Peralta, David Price and Chris Tillman, I believe that Zimmer and Glasnow are also potential #1 starters as well.  Out of our four experts, ESPN's Keith Law ranked Zimmer the highest at #10.  (Zimmer was ranked no higher than #23 on the other three lists.)  He is a highly-polished college pitcher, and this could very well be the last time he qualifies for this survey.  Likewise, Law also ranked Glasnow higher than any of the other three lists, at #20.  Like Bradley, Glasnow racks up huge strikeout numbers with a fastball that touches 100 mph.  And like Bradley, Glasnow has some issues controlling the strike zone.  The difference is in body type (Glasnow is tall and lanky, while Bradley is much bulkier) and the quality of their secondary pitches (Glasnow's curve is still inconsistent.)  But regardless of their similarities and differences, both are top-notch pitching prospects.

With so many outstanding young players on both the Locks and the Apostles, the battle in the Person Division over the next several years will be EPIC.

#3 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Jameson Taillon (18), Mark Appel (22), Alberto Almora (26), Aaron Sanchez (27), Cory Seager (30), Joc Pederson (35), Lucas Sims (46), Garin Cecchini (48), Erik Johnson (63), Alen Hanson (70), Zach Lee (81), Sean Manaea (113), Alexander Reyes (137)
Unranked prospects: Daz Cameron, Jacob Gatewood, Alex Jackson

Both the Apostles and Locks own record-setting farm clubs in terms of this Farm Report.  Why not continue that streak with a third record-setting farm club?  Los Altos' total of 2,459 points represents 12.2% of the total in this survey, which blows away the old record for a #3-ranked farm team (set just last year!) of 11.4%.  If you were to add up the total points of the top three teams in this report, it would represent a whopping 40% of the entire league's total.  In other words, just three BDBL teams own 40% of all the decent farm players in the game of baseball!  (And yes, that, too, is a new BDBL record.)

Of course, the Undertakers are no strangers to the top three.  They ranked #1 in this report in each of the past two years, and have ranked among the top three a remarkable NINE TIMES in fifteen seasons.  As I've pointed out in past Farm Reports, the way they are able to rank so highly year in and year out is by concentrating their efforts on amateur talent and locking in the top amateurs of the MLB draft nearly every year.  This year is no exception, as Gatewood and Jackson are projected to be early first-rounders, and Cameron is currently the #1-ranked prep prospect in the Class of 2016.

As for this year's farm class, both Taillon and Appel are considered to have future ace potential.  Within the next two years, they will both join Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole, Chris Archer, Kyle Gibson and Erik Johnson in a ridiculously overstocked rotation.  If Sanchez can harness his stuff, and stay healthy, he could eventually join that group as well.  If there is such a thing as having too much pitching, then the Undertakers are certainly pushing the envelope.

On the offensive side, Almora, Seager and Pederson all have similar profiles as gap-hitters who get on base, hit for average, and display a good deal of athletic ability.  None of the three are likely to ever hit 30 homers in any big league season, but they will be valuable offensive assets, regardless.

#4 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Taijuan Walker (10), Gregory Polanco (12), Maikel Franco (38), Mike Foltynewicz (57), Blake Swihart (65), Delino DeShields (102), Taylor Lindsey (130)
Unranked prospects: Orlando Calixte, C.J. Cron, Patrick Kivlehan, Jace Peterson, Cesar Puello, Carlos Sanchez, Alex Yarbrough, Raul Alcantara, Ben Lively

The Sea Cats finished among the top three in this Farm Report for three straight years, from 2009-2011.  Only two other franchises can make that claim: the Undertakers and the Mississippi Meatballs.  Despite the success of their farm club, South Carolina has finished below .500 in the two seasons since that three-year run.  The problem is that many of their top prospects from those three years (Justin Smoak, Fernando Martinez, Alcides Escobar, Manny Banuelos, Brody Colvin, etc.) simply didn't pan out.  And the few stars that developed from the farm in those years (Buster Posey, Freddie Freeman, Aroldis Chapman) haven't been surrounded with enough good players.  A team cannot succeed on its farm alone.

This year's crop of Sea Cats is impressive.  Both Walker and Polanco appear poised to make an impact in the major leagues as early as this coming season.  Walker looks like a future ace, and Polanco looks like a young Bobby Abreu type of player who will get on base, hit for a little power, and steal some bases while playing above-average defense.

Franco was one of the more divisive players in this study, as Baseball America ranked him as high as #17, while Baseball HQ, Baseball Prospectus and ESPN ranked him #34, #52 and #63, respectively.  He possesses great power potential (with 31 HR at two levels last year), but like many young power hitters, he has trouble with strike zone judgment, and his defense is questionable.  Of the remaining prospects, Swihart is the most interesting, and was a steal in the draft after the Blazers foolishly released him.

#5 Southern California Slyme
Ranked prospects: Kevin Gausman (15), Alex Meyer (40), Billy Hamilton (42), Max Fried (49), Masahiro Tanaka (73), Jake Odorizzi (75), Edwin Escobar (97), Danny Hultzen (110), Luke Jackson (118)
Unranked prospects: Greg Bird, Alfredo Despaigne, Micah Johnson, Trayce Thompson, Stryker Trahan, Luke Jackson, Steven Matz, Josh Osich

Of the four prospect lists used to build this report, only one (Baseball America) considered Tanaka to be eligible.  He ranked #4 on that list, and it's safe to assume he would have been listed among the top ten of the other three lists if he had been considered.  By all accounts, he should be, at minimum, a solid #2 starting pitcher, and will obviously make an immediate impact on the 2015 Slyme.

Gausman gives the Slyme two pitching prospects that are better-than-average bets to make an impact in the near future.  He owns a K:BB ratio of over 8:1 in his brief minor league career, and he has already had some success at the MLB level.  His 5.66 ERA with Baltimore last year belies his overall effectiveness.  Meyer is also very close to making an impact at the MLB level, and is likely to be ineligible for this report next year.

Just in case you didn't notice, all four teams in the Person Division rank among the top five in this survey.  Maybe it's time to break up that division.

#6 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: George Springer (16), Jorge Soler (32), Jackie Bradley, Jr. (37), Christian Bethancourt (88), Arismendy Alcantara (94), Hunter Renfroe (108)
Unranked prospects: Bryce Brentz, Jeimer Candelario, Aledmis Diaz, Nomar Mazara, Joe Panik, Rio Ruiz, Austin Wilson, Jonathan Crawford, Daniel Norris

Springer is the type of player that will hit a ton of home runs, steal lots of bases, and play outstanding defense in center field, while hitting around .240 with 150+ strikeouts.  He's basically Mike Cameron, reincarnated.  If Springer is another Mike Cameron, then Soler is Albert Belle -- including the hot temper.  Like Belle, Soler has elite power (although his numbers haven't reflected that, yet) and a good eye at the plate.  Unlike Belle, Soler also has a powerful arm in right field.

Now that Jacoby Ellsbury is wearing pinstripes, it appears that Boston will give Bradley an opportunity to win the center field job this season.  He has the skills to be a decent leadoff hitter, but it may take a couple of years for him to adjust to major league pitching.  It may take a few years before it happens, but a Sphinx outfield of Springer, Soler and Bradley is easy to envision in the near future.

#7 New York Giants
Ranked prospects: Noah Syndergaard (14), Kyle Crick (39), Henry Owens (45), J.P. Crawford (80), James Paxton (93), Tim Anderson (138)
Unranked prospects: Clint Coulter, D.J. Davis, Grayson Greiner, Jan Hernandez, Oscar Mercado, Steven Souza, Phil Bickford, Jose Campos, Jason Hursh, Nick Travieso

The poor, embittered masochists who call themselves Giants fans have no choice but to cling to any insignificant semblance of hope and optimism they can muster.  These days, that hope rests with the farm system, which is the highest-ranked Giants farm since 2009.  Ignoring the TINSTAAPP philosophy in the same way he ignores his diet, Jim Doyle spent the winter trading top prospects like Austin Hedges (#28), Jake Marisnick (#79) and Christian Bethancourt (#88) to load up on highly-volatile pitching prospects.  The result is that the team's top three prospects are now pitchers.

Syndergaard has as much talent as he has consecutive A's in his surname.  He has averaged more than 10 strikeouts per nine in his minor league career, to go along with a sparkling 2.64 ERA.  At the tender age of 20, he has already logged half a season at the Double-A level, and is a good bet to get called up to The Show at some point this coming season.  Crick has better pure stuff than Syndergaard, but is more more raw, and much further away from the big leagues.  He was ranked as high as #28 (Baseball HQ) and as low as #69 (ESPN) in this study, which reflects where he stands on the risk/reward spectrum.

Like Crick, Owens has owned a high strikeout ratio throughout his minor league career.  And like Crick, Owens has also struggled with his command, which has slowed his development.  He has only thrown 30 innings above the A-ball level, and will likely remain in Double-A throughout this season (giving Doyle plenty of opportunities to see him first-hand at his favorite minor league ballpark.)

It is somewhat startling to see how far Paxton's stock has fallen.  His ranking over the past three years has dropped from #51 to #71 to #93, and he didn't even make Keith Law's top 100.  The knock against him is an inconsistent delivery, which leads to problems with his command.  Although Paxton is much closer to the big leagues than Crick and Owens, he is still likely years away from making a positive impact due to his command issues, and he may end up as a left-handed setup man in the bullpen.

Teams that pin all of their hope and optimism for the future on pitching prospects often end up disappointed.  Luckily, Giants fans are used to being disappointed.

#8 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Javier Baez (4), Austin Hedges (28), D.J. Peterson (86), Allen Webster (97), Phillip Ervin (101), Pierce Johnson (112), Rob Kaminsky (140)
Unranked prospects: Franklin Barreto, Mitch Haniger, Victor Roache, Tyrone Taylor, Bradley Zimmer, Paul Blackburn, Adam Morgan

In most years, a shortstop that hits 37 home runs (20 at the Double-A level) as a 20-year-old would be the unanimous choice as the #1 prospect in baseball, but this happens to be a very strong year for prospects.  The only knock against Baez is his defense.  Although he has great range and an outstanding arm, he rushes through the motions, which leads to lots of errors -- 44 last season.  With Starlin Castro seemingly blocking him at shortstop (assuming he bounces back offensively), and Kris Bryant seemingly tabbed as the Cubs' third baseman of the future, that could mean a shift to second base for Baez, where his defensive problems would seemingly solve themselves.  Regardless of where he ends up, he will be a devastating force at the plate.

Hedges also seems to be blocked at the major league level, as Yasmani Grandal appears to be the long-term solution behind the plate for San Diego.  However, Hedges is a much better defensive catcher than Grandal, and San Diego could easily move Grandal to another position to make room.  As talented as he is defensively, Hedges still has some work to do offensively.  Although he has made great strides in that area, he still managed to hit just .270/.343/.425 in a drastic hitter's league at the High-A level, and then posted an anemic .224/.297/.269 triple-slash line in 67 Double-A at-bats to close the year.

John Gill loves snagging powerful college hitters in the draft, and has enjoyed good success over the years in doing so.  Peterson, Ervin and Roache all seem to fit that classic Chicago mold.  Peterson was the best power hitter in the MLB '13 draft class.  He concluded his college career by slugging .807 in the high altitude of New Mexico, and he carried over that power to the pros, slugging .553 at two levels.  Ervin (.331/.425/.564 at two levels) also enjoyed a great deal of success in his first exposure to pro ball.  Roache (.248/.322/.440 in Low-A), on the other hand, has struggled against professional pitching, which is why he's the only one out of the three that is not ranked by any of our experts.

#9 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Kris Bryant (11), Julio Urias (36), Stephen Piscotty (67), Miguel Almonte (69)
Unranked prospects: Alex Bregman, Michael Conforto, Rafael Devers, Derek Fisher, Marten Gasparini, Nick Gordon, Aaron Judge, J.R. Murphy, Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Trea Turner, Rafael DePaula, Aaron Nola

Once upon a time, it was a given that the Cowtippers would rank among the top ten in this report year after year.  But after ELEVEN straight years of ranking among the top ten, the Salem farm system fell into the toilet, and has ranked among the bottom four for three years in a row.  At long last, the Cowtippers are back where they belong.  Not only did Salem make the biggest leap forward of any franchise in this report, but the ineligible amateur talent on the Cowtippers' farm ensures that they will remain among the top ten for the foreseeable future.

Bryant is the cream of the Salem crop, and the highest ranked Cowtippers prospect since Stephen Strasburg.  He was the College Player of the Year last year, and led the nation in homers (31), walks, total bases and slugging.  He then tore through four different levels of the minor leagues, including the Arizona Fall League, where he was named MVP.  He should move very quickly to the major leagues, and may even wear a spotted cap as early as next season.

Urias was an absolute steal during the mid-season farm draft last year, as he was one of the last picks selected in that draft, in Round Nine.  While most 16-year-olds are focused on getting their driver's license, Urias was mowing down much older professional hitters at the full-season Low-A level.  In 54+ innings, he allowed just 44 hits and 16 walks, and struck out 67 batters, with a 2.48 ERA...as a 16-year-old!  I'm hard-pressed to think of another pitcher in baseball history who enjoyed as much professional success at that age.

Piscotty doesn't do anything except hit.  No matter where he is or what level of competition he is facing, the man just hits and hits and hits.  Last year in this space, I predicted that Miguel Almonte would be among the top pitching prospects in the game by this time.  His #69 ranking shows that hasn't happened...yet.  Perhaps I was a year off on that prediction.  He enjoyed another fantastic season (130+ IP, 115 H, 36 BB, 132 K) at Low-A, and I still believe he is on the cusp of a breakout.

As exciting as the ranked prospects on Salem's farm may be, the unranked are perhaps even more impressive.  Conforto, Fisher, Gordon, Turner and Nola are all expected to be early first-rounders in this year's MLB draft, and Turner has a chance to be among the top five selections.  On the scouting scale of 20-80, Turner's speed is rated a true 80, and his advanced approach at the plate suggests a high batting average and high on-base percentage.  He is also likely to stick at shortstop, as his range and arm are both excellent.

Bregman is considered to be among the top prospects for the 2015 MLB draft, and has the most advanced bat among the college sophomore ranks.  Aaron Judge has a good chance to be among the ranked prospects at this time next year.  DePaula has an electric arm, and could put it all together over the coming season.  And remember the names Rafael Devers and Amed Rosario.  I predict that at this point a year from now, both will be ranked in this survey among the top 60.

#10 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Dylan Bundy (17), Yordano Ventura (24), Dominic Smith (83), Reese McGuire (89)
Unranked prospects: Elier Hernandez, Jorge Polanco, Chris Taylor, Henry Urrutia, Adam Walker, Tyler Beede, Cody Buckel, Mauricio Cabrera, Ian Clarkin, John Lamb, Kyle Smith

Despite missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery, Bundy is still ranked among the top 20, which speaks volumes about his talent.  He has all the tools and potential to be a #1 starter in the big leagues; he just needs to stay healthy for that to happen.  Ventura, on the other hand, hasn't had any health issues whatsoever (knock on wood) despite throwing a 102-mph fastball with a body that is roughly the size of mine.

Smith is a potential gold glover at first base, and has a powerful stroke from the left side of the plate, but there is a long, and often bumpy, road between rookie ball and the majors.  McGuire didn't make the top 100 on ESPN's and Baseball HQ's lists, but earned a spot among the overall top 90 thanks to a ranking of #59 by Baseball Prospectus.  Like Smith, McGuire features outstanding defense, and performed well at the plate in rookie ball.  But like Smith, he has a long way to go.

The Law Dogs have appeared in the top ten for four years in a row, but this could be the last time for a while.  Assuming both Bundy and Ventura see enough MLB time this season to lose eligibility for this ranking, there isn't enough talent among the unranked to maintain this farm system's high ranking.  Beede, however, should be a first-round pick in June's draft, and he could carry the farm until the next wave arrives.

#11 Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Marcus Stroman (44), Kolten Wong (52), Colin Moran (62), Eddie Rosario (64), Chi Chi Gonzalez (104), Josh Bell (108), Hunter Dozier (115)
Unranked prospects: Ji-Man Choi, Travis Harrison, Tommy LaStella, Dan Vogelbach, Alex Gonzalez, Jesse Hahn, Jake Thompson, Lewis Thorpe, Nick Tropeano, Boone Whiting

When your top prospect is a relief pitcher, that's usually not a good sign of things to come.  However, after pitching his entire NCAA career out of the bullpen, and pitching his first year of pro ball in relief as well, Stroman was moved to the starting rotation last year, with impressive results at the Double-A level (112 IP, 99 H, 27 BB, 129 K, 3.30 ERA).  Stroman stands at just 5'9", and Baseball America made an astute observation when they pointed out that since 1960, only two right-handers 5'9" or shorter have had more than 30 career MLB starts.  That doesn't exactly bode well for Stroman's career as a starter.

Wong is just another typical, boring St. Louis Cardinals prospect.  As a second baseman, he is even more boring than the usual lot of Cardinals prospects.  However, it looks like he may have a chance to make the team out of spring training, which is somewhat exciting.  Rosario is another boring second base prospect.

I would continue listing all the boring farm players on this roster, but I'm falling asleep.  There isn't one prospect here with 80 power or a 100mph fastball, not one that has been called "the next" anything, and not one who projects to win any awards in the BDBL.  Zzzzzzz...

#12 Wyoming Ridgebacks
Ranked prospects: Jonathan Gray (13), Gary Sanchez (54), Rosell Herrera (77), Joey Gallo (95), Vincent Velasquez (114)
Unranked prospects: Gosuke Katoh, Manuel Margot, Josh Sale, Trevor Story, Miguel Castro, Edwin Diaz, Jairo Labourt, Burch Smith, Carson Smith

Finally, at long last, Johnny Bo managed to draft a player who might actually make a positive impact on his roster someday, and might actually develop into the type of dominant player that is needed to win games in the BDBL...then he immediately traded him to Tom.  Epic facepalm.

In case you forgot, that deal was part of a mid-season trade where the Ridgebacks acquired Andy Pettitte in exchange for top prospect Francisco Lindor (who is now ranked #6 overall in this survey.)  Call me crazy, but despite his slightly lower ranking, I would rather have Gray at this point than Lindor -- never mind throwing in Andy Pettitte on top of it.  Regardless, Gray is now the next in line to be the next great $100,000 Ridgebacks ace, following in the footsteps of Roy Oswalt, Felix Hernandez, Jake Peavy and Tim Lincecum.

There is a big drop-off to #2, as Sanchez is ranked #54 overall -- 41 spots behind Gray.  He took a step backward, as he was ranked #34 in this study a year ago.  The team's only other ranked prospect from last year, Story, also took a step back from #83 to unranked.  Tom DiStefano's secret formula for divining top prospects hasn't had much success in recent years, and most of the franchise's top prospects (including Gray and Sanchez, along with more recent successes such as Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton) have been acquired through trade.  At this point, it seems unlikely that any of the unranked prospects on this roster -- with the possible exception of Margot -- will make the leap to the ranked list over the course of this year.

#13 Cuenca Strangegloves
Ranked prospects: Carlos Correa (5), Austin Meadows (51), Nick Williams (116), Jorge Bonifacio (122)
Unranked prospects: Gary Brown, Cheslor Cuthbert, Kyle Parker, Max Pentecost, Will Swanner, Drew Vettleson, Brandon Finnegan, Kyle Freeland, Marco Gonzales, Roberto Osuna, Ben Wells

Whoever takes over this franchise will begin his (or her -- I'm looking at you, Kerry Clemm) BDBL career with a farm system that includes one of the top five prospects in baseball.  All three of Cuenca's top three prospects are highly athletic, and possess both speed and power.  Correa could very well rank at the top of this list a year from now, and Meadows has the potential to rise quickly toward the top.  Bonifacio is a good hitter, and has already had some good success at an advanced level (Double-A).  Of course, since he's a KC Royal, he is also prime trade bait for Chris Luhning and Scot Zook.

The rest of the Cuenca farm is somewhat unremarkable.  Brown and Parker are former first-round picks who have flashed potential at times, but haven't progressed as quickly as their teams had hoped.  And Gonzales is yet another boring St. Louis Cardinals prospect.  As a left-hander drafted out of college in the first round, he enjoyed some success in pro ball last year, but in very limited time.  Of all the players on the unranked list, he has the highest probability of being ranked next year.

#14 Charlotte Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Addison Russell (8), C.J. Edwards (53), Alberto Tirado (110), Mason Williams (121), Kaleb Cowart (134)
Unranked prospects: Jayce Boyd, Michael Gettys, Max Kepler, Daniel Robertson, Jake Barrett, Clayton Blackburn, Michael Cederoth, Shohei Otani, Joe Ross, Arodys Vizcaino

This farm club plummeted from #5 last year to #14 this year despite the rise of Russell from #40 to the top ten.  Part of the reason is that Zack Wheeler (#9 last year) graduated to the big leagues.  Another reason is that prospects like Williams (#38 last year), Cowart (#44) and Vizcaino (#91) saw their stocks plummet over the course of the year, and they weren't replaced with rising prospects.

Russell enjoyed a monster second half of the season, and looks like he has star potential at shortstop.  In his prime, he could easily be a 20/20 player with above-average defense.  Between him and Correa, one-fifth of the overall top ten is comprised of future all-star shortstops traded by the Salem Cowtippers.  I guess that's something to be proud of.

Edwards has some very intriguing career numbers for a 48th round draft pick.  In 183+ innings (basically one full season), he has allowed just 108 hits, 1 home run (yes, ONE), 66 walks, and has struck out 240 batters.  He owns a career ERA of 1.72, and an average of nearly 12 strikeouts per nine.  Of course, he hasn't pitched above the High-A level yet, so let's not get too excited.  At a similar stage in his career, Adam Johnson had posted similar numbers, and you all know how that worked out.

#15 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Matt Wisler (47), A.J. Cole (66), Jake Marisnick (79), Matt Barnes (84), Alex Colome (140)
Unranked prospects: Alexander Guerrero, Rymer Liriano, Tyler Naquin, Luis Heredia, Asher Wojciechowski, Sukmin Yoon

The greatest common denominator among the Cleveland farm is that most of their prospects saw a drop in their ranking over the past year.  Barnes fell from #43 to #84, Colome fell from #113 to #140, Marisnick fell from #65 to #79, and both Heredia (#84) and Liriano (#64) fell completely outside of the ranking.  The lone exception is Cole, who rose from #104 last year to #66 this year.

The lone new addition to the group of ranked prospects, and the team's new #1 prospect, is Wisler, who rose from the unranked to the top 50 in one year.  He logged 105 innings at the Double-A level last year, and posted a nifty 27/103 BB/K ratio.

Of the unranked group, Guerrero is the most intriguing.  A Cuban defector, he is a lottery ticket at this point.  He could be the starting second baseman for the Rocks next season, or he could be just another forgotten Cuban.

#16 Las Vegas Flamingoes
Ranked prospects: Francisco Lindor (6)
Unranked prospects: Bruce Maxwell, Hiroyuki Nakajima, James Ramsey, Matt Skole, Mac Williamson, Jesse Winker, Andrew Chafin, Ty Hensley, Taylor Jungmann, Adalberto Mejia, Sammy Solis, Chris Stratton

Normally, if I had a choice between a top-twelve hitting prospect or a top-twelve pitching prospect, I would take the hitter every single time.  Johnny Bo was faced with that choice last year, and he opted for the hitter (Lindor) over the pitcher (Jonathan Gray.)  I never really understood the hype over Lindor.  He is primarily a defensive shortstop whose hitting ability still resides among the realm of "potential."  In that way, he reminds me of Elvis Andrus, whose hype I have also never quite understood.  In a minor league career that now spans more than 900 at-bats, Lindor has just 8 home runs and 46 doubles.  I completely understand the value in having a shortstop with elite defense, who gets on base at a .360 clip (or better), and who can steal a base when needed.  I just don't understand how such a player is considered to be a top ten commodity.

Mejia looks like an interesting left-handed pitching prospect who could move into the ranked group this year.  Aside from him, though, I don't know why any of the other prospects on this team remain on the roster.  Bruce Maxwell?  Hiroyuki Nakajima?  Matt Skole? Sammy Solis?  It's time to cut bait, J.B..

#17 Kansas City Boulevards
Ranked prospects: Hunter Harvey (68), Jesse Biddle (71), Lance McCullers (91), Brian Goodwin (95), Luis Sardinas (107), Justin Nicolino (126), Brandon Nimmo (128), Jose Peraza (139)
Unranked prospects: Carlos Tocci, Drew Hutchison, Casey Kelly, Sean Newcomb, Tyler Pike, Ryne Stanek, Touki Toussaint

It seems like an almost impossible feat, and yet the Boulevards franchise has ranked among the bottom half of the BDBL in the annual Farm Report every year over the past 15 years, with the exception of one (2003).  Perhaps even more depressing than that fact is the list of #1 prospects this team has had over the years: Mike Bynum, Dewon Brazelton, Sean Burnett, Brandon McCarthy, Geovanny Soto, Lars Anderson, Drew Hutchison...blech!

In 15 seasons, only one player from this franchise has ever cracked the top ten: Francisco Rodriguez (#7) in 2003.  Only one other player (Lars Anderson in 2009) has ever cracked the top 20, and only one other (Eric Gagne, way back in 2000) has ever cracked the top 30.  That is simply a sad and depressing track record.  You would think that, merely by simple random luck, this franchise would have produced one outstanding prospect by mistake!

This year is no different than any other.  Harvey (#68) is now the #1 prospect on this farm club.  He is currently ranked as the fourth best pitcher...on the Baltimore Orioles.  A first-round pick last summer, Harvey is the son of Bryan, who (for you youngsters among us) was a big-time closer for the Marlins a few years ago.  Like his dad, the younger Harvey is right-handed and throws hard.  That's pretty much all we know for sure about him at this point.

It's unusual to see a team this low in the ranking having so many ranked prospects.  The age-old question is whether it is preferable for a team to have one really elite prospect or a dozen mediocre prospects.  The Boulevards provide the test case for the latter experimental group.  Of the rest of the lot, I'm most intrigued by Goodwin, although mostly because he's a former 'Tipper.  Although he had a bit of a disappointing year last year, he still possesses all the tools that made him interesting in the first place.  Of the entire Boulevards farm, I would put money on him being the only one who will make an impact in the BDBL, although McCullers could eventually become a power arm out of the bullpen.

#18 Granite State Lightning
Ranked prospects: Eddie Butler (23)
Unranked prospects: Jairo Beras, Billy Burns, Rusney Castillo, Eloy Jimenez, Renato Nunez, Daniel Palka, Brendan Rodgers, Yasmany Tomas, Manny Banuelos, Anthony DeSclafani, Tom Eschelman, Dalier Hinojosa, Kenta Maeda, Pat Venditte

I can't help but wonder if Tony Badger checks in on the BDBL every now and then, and smiles when he sees Pat Venditte still on this roster.

Ryan spent the winter trading away his entire farm system, including Rafael Montero (#82), Hunter Harvey (#68), Josh Bell (#108), Jonathan Schoop (#103) and Marco Gonzales.  The only reason he wasn't completely shut out of this survey was his Chapter One acquisition of Butler from the New Milford Blazers.  Butler has dominated the minor leagues since his pro debut, but since he's right-handed, Peburn had no use for him.  Ryan also picked up Jimmy Nelson (#120) during BDBL Weekend, but the deadline had already passed for Nelson's inclusion in this report (not that it would have changed any of the rankings.)

With nearly an entire farm team to fill this winter, Ryan went nuts and overloaded on players who are extremely high risk and have extremely high ceilings.  He scoured the globe, from Cuba to Japan and back, looking for such players, and found several who fit that criteria.  Each and every one of them is a lottery ticket, with the exact same odds of a big pay-out.  Beras, Jimenez and Nunez were considered to be among the top 16-year-old Latin free agents over the past two or three years.  Castillo, Tomas and Hinojosa are all either stuck in Cuba or recently deported.  Maeda is still playing in Japan.  And Eschelman and Rodgers are still underclassmen in college and high school, respectively.  It's safe to say that none of them will be ranked next year.  In fact, it's a safe bet that more than half of them won't even be on this roster (or any other) a year from now.  But all it takes for this strategy to succeed is to hit the jackpot with just one of those scratch tickets.

#19 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Eduardo Rodriguez (57), Nick Kingham (76), Tyler Austin (118)
Unranked prospects: Nicky Delmonico, Ti'Quan Forbes, Eric Jagielo, Domingo Leyba, Kevin Plawecki, Roman Quinn, Harold Ramirez, Dan Corcino, Kyle Hendricks, Luke Weaver

Kingham and Rodriguez rank back-to-back in Baseball America's ranking, at #64 and #65, respectively.  The highest ranking either one of them received was #43, which is where Keith Law ranked Rodriguez.  Given his AFL performance, it seems that Rodriguez will see the majors sooner than Kingham, despite the fact that he is two years younger.  Austin's stock dropped through the floor, as his first exposure to Double-A was a disaster.  At age 21, though, there is still time for him to regain his status as a top prospect.

I am much more intrigued by Ravenswoods' unranked prospects than I am about their ranked ones.  Jagielo gave an impressive performance as a junior at Notre Dame last year, and as a Yankees fan, I'm hoping he climbs quickly up the ladder.  Ramirez was one of the steals of this winter's draft, and I was shocked not to see him on any of the four top prospect lists this spring.  He also has the potential to move quickly up this ranking.  Plawecki is an older prospect, but I like him a lot, and believe that -- like so many other catchers -- he is a late bloomer who will contribute at the MLB level sooner rather than later.  And finally, Weaver is one of the hardest throwers in college baseball right now, and I expect him to be taken very early in June's draft.

#20 New Milford Blazers
Ranked prospects: Taylor Guerrieri (74), Mookie Betts (87), Jonathan Schoop (103), Jose Berrios (105), Devon Travis (116), Trey Ball (123)
Unranked prospects: Dean Anna, Tom Murphy, Tomohiro Anraku, Chris Dwyer, Carlos Hernandez, Kodi Medeiros, Luis Ortiz, Neil Ramirez, Jen-Ho Tseng

Back in June, Anthony Peburn stated in an annoying and cocky manner (does he have any other way of stating anything?): "(There are) only two other pitchers in the minors I'd take over (Taylor Guerrieri.)"  Sadly, tragedy then struck.  First, Guerrieri experienced elbow soreness, which resulted in Tommy John surgery.  Then, he was hit with a 50-game suspension for drug abuse.  Why, oh why, do bad things happen to evil people?

Schoop has an outside chance of winning the second base job in Baltimore this year, but to do so, he'll have to step over Jemile Weeks.  And we all know that's not going to happen.  Interestingly, both Travis (#84) and Ball (#89) were ranked by Baseball America, but none of the other three in our panel.  Travis seemed to come out of nowhere last year, and hit .352 at Low-A before duplicating the feat by hitting .350 at High-A.  Scouts didn't see that one coming, and he'll need to show he can do it again before the baseball punditry community is convinced.

#21 Corona Confederates
Ranked prospects: Rougned Odor (50)
Unranked prospects: Tim Beckham, Bobby Borchering, Jack Flaherty, Anthony Hewitt, Jiovanni Mier, Justin Smith, Brady Aiken, Grant Holmes, Justus Sheffield, John Stilson, Jason Stoffel

It is a sad commentary on the state of this franchise's farm system when they only have one ranked prospect...and his name is Rougned Odor.  I don't know which is more amusing: his first name or last.  I'm not even sure how to pronounce his name, but when I say it in my head, it sounds like "ruff-neck odor".

The unranked list is filled with prospects that were selected in the early rounds of the MLB draft, but have since fallen out of favor: Beckham, Borchering, Hewitt, Mier and Holmes.  It's difficult to believe that Beckham was once selected #1 overall, four picks ahead of Buster Posey.  That draft has turned out to be a real dud, as most of the players selected in the first round that year (Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer, Yonder Alonso, Brian Matusz, Kyle Skipworth, Gordon Beckham, Aaron Crow, etc.) have been disappointments to various degrees.  Hewitt was the 24th overall pick that year, and he hasn't done much (.228/.271/.382 career) to live up to that draft slot.

The Confederates need to do a little spring cleaning this year, send all of those bums packing, do a little research for the mid-season farm draft, and fill those spots with players who will be ranked in this report at some point in the near future.

#22 Flagstaff Outlaws
Ranked prospects: Chris Owings (56), Jimmy Nelson (120), Nick Ciuffo (132)
Unranked prospects: Billy McKinney, Francisco Mejia, Tyler Pastornicky, Yorman Rodriguez, Andrew Susac, Aaron Blair, Cody Dickson, Sean Gilmartin, J.R. Graham, Tyler Kolek, Keyvius Sampson, Matt Stites, Bobby Wahl

In his quest to win a division title at some point in his life, GM Greg Newgard dealt away two of the game's top twenty prospects in Archie Bradley (#8) and Robert Stephenson (#19).  As a result, the Outlaws' farm has fallen all the way from #9 to #22.  Those two vacancies leave Owings as the default top prospect on this farm club.  As a shortstop that can smack a few homers and steal a few bases, he has good potential for value, although his struggles with plate discipline throughout his career suggest it may be a while before he delivers on that potential.

Nelson has already been traded since I began writing this piece, and Ciuffo is still very raw and many years away from contributing.  McKinney is equally raw, but seems more advanced than Ciuffo, and performed far better in his pro debut.  Of the unranked group, both he and Kolek seem to have the best odds of joining the ranked at this time next year.

#23 Mississippi Meatballs
Ranked prospects: Braden Shipley (59)
Unranked prospects: Jaff Decker, Jake Lamb, Gareth Morgan, Mike O'Neill, Andrew Toles, Josh Vitters, Adam Conley, Christian Friedrich, Miguel Gonzalez, Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke, Sam Selman, Michael Ynoa

For a team that has spent the past two years taking every fat, bloated and unwanted contract they could get their hands on, you would think they would have a much better farm system than this.  Shipley was ranked as high as #25 (by Keith Law), and is generally considered to be a good bet to slot into the middle of a big league rotation in the near future.  He has hardly had any pro experience, however, so patience will be required.

The unranked group is littered with former top prospects and former first-round draft picks, who have all fallen off the map in recent years.  These days, no one is talking about Decker, Vitters, Friedrich, Matzek, Purke or Ynoa as a future star -- or even a regular contributor.

#24 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Hak-Ju Lee (100), Anthony Ranaudo (124), Chris Anderson (134)
Unranked prospects: Stetson Allie, Orlando Arcia, Christian Arroyo, Dorssys Paulino, Martin Agosto, Ty Blach, Michael Fullmer, Severino Gonzalez, Heath Hembree, Wes Parsons, Robbie Ray, Victor Sanchez

No team fell further in this ranking than the Jamboree, who ranked #6 last year.  Albert Almora (#26) was one of the many casualties of GM Matt Clemm's "all-in" strategy for this season.  Trevor Rosenthal (#45 a year ago), Chris Archer (#47), Oswaldo Arcia (#63) and Yasiel Puig (#72) all graduated to the big leagues.  All three of the Jamboree's ranked prospects now rank in the triple-digits, led by Lee, who is a speedy shortstop in the mold of Erick Aybar.

The most interesting prospect in the unranked group is Allie, who was a first-round draft pick as a pitcher, and is now trying to revive his career as a position player.  He batted .324/.414/.607 in Low-A last year, but then slumped badly (.229/.342/.356) in his first exposure to High-A ball.  At age 22, it seems like time is running out on that experience.