November, 2014

2014 Playoffs Preview

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	106-54	871	544	327	64-16	42-38	.797	.763	.828	3.16	.657	.639	.665
	84-76	646	585	61	45-35	39-41	.695	.690	.698	3.47	.635	.705	.668

Over the final month of the season, Anthony Peburn was obsessed with usage.  It was a strange obsession, given that he held a huge lead in the division, and there was little need for a sure-bet playoffs team to monitor usage so closely.  His obsession can be easily explained in only two words: Chris Sale.

Quite simply, Sale is the scariest left-handed pitcher in baseball against left-handed batters -- even more so than New Milford's own Clayton Kershaw.  This season, Sale held lefties to a .178/.254/.276 triple-slash line.  He started three games against the Blazers during the regular season, and held them to just 14 hits, 5 walks and no homers in 23 innings.  He allowed only two runs to score -- an ERA of 0.78.  Quite simply, there is no bigger threat to New Milford's championship dreams than Chris Sale.

As has been well-documented all season, the Blazers won 80% of their home games this season for the second season in a row.  Their lineup is filled with left-handers, and yet they managed to hold their own against lefties (.763 OPS) this season thanks to a home ballpark that drastically distorts the numbers of every left-handed batter.

Here's how it works.  James Loney is a left-handed batter who hit .299 against lefties in MLB last season.  Of his 46 hits in 154 at-bats, 38 of those hits were singles.  So, if you want to artificially inflate Loney's performance, you would need to boost his singles rate against left-handers.  Enter New Milford's Nestle's Field.

Dodger Stadium, Loney's MLB park, is already above average (101) for left-handed singles.  But Nestle's Field's factor is a whopping 111 -- higher than any ballpark in Major League Baseball.  Let's say that 10-point difference in LH singles factor translates to a 10% increase in singles for Loney.  (Note: it's much higher than that, but this is merely a hypothetical.)  Adding 10% to his 38 singles would give him 50 singles, which would translate to a .325 batting average.  Voila!  James Loney is suddenly a VERY productive hitter against lefties!

What were Loney's numbers against lefties this season?  .421/.445/.474.  'Nuff said.

Given Sale's Ex durability rating, the Meatballs could easily start him three times in a seven game series -- and would be well-advised to do so.  Mississippi doesn't own another left-handed starting pitcher, so it is likely to be a bloodbath in the games not started by Sale.  All they need, though, is one win with a right-handed starter to take the series.  Stranger things have happened in the BDBL post-season.

The Blazers could counter by starting Kershaw (who is also an Ex) three times.  All he did this season was go 32-7 with a 2.14 ERA in 252+ innings, with 258 strikeouts.  In both of the games where Kershaw went head-to-head against Sale this season, the Blazers emerged with the win.  More than likely, this will be a game-time decision at Game Four.  If the Blazers already have two or three wins under their belt by then, it will be a moot issue.

This is a classic David vs. Goliath matchup.  The Blazers led the Ozzie League in wins, runs scored, hits, doubles, ERA, runs differential, and -- of course -- batting average on balls in play.  The Meatballs led the Ozzie League in most wins in one-run games.  So that's something.  That may come in handy in this series, since five of the twelve games between these two teams this season were decided by one run.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	106-54	784	572	212	57-23	49-31	.758	.818	.742	3.34	.665	.711	.619
	89-71	733	676	57	46-34	43-37	.726	.691	.737	3.90	.720	.719	.721

No BDBL team has won back-to-back championships since the Stamford Zoots did it way back in 2001.  This year, the Southern Cal Slyme have a solid chance to equal that impressive feat.  The defending champs easily rolled to the division title without hardly any resistance.  They held a two game lead in the division after one chapter, and never looked back.  By the end of two chapters, their lead had grown to a more-than-comfortable eleven games.

The Slyme outscored their opponents by 212 runs this season -- 80 more than the next best margin among Eck League teams.  They led the EL in runs scored (784) by a comfortable margin, and ranked #2 in the EL in fewest runs allowed.

Their high-octane offense includes three players with more than 100 runs created on the season: Andrew McCutchen (.311/.382/.494, 117.9 RC), Brandon Belt (.294/.388/.498, 108.7 RC) and Allen Craig (.351/.401/.490, 105.3 RC).  And their starting rotation is led by a pair of 18-game-winners in Felix Hernandez (18-7, 3.00 ERA) and Jarrod Parker (18-4, 3.69), and 17-game-winner Lance Lynn (17-9, 3.90).  Zack Greinke (14-7, 3.03) and Dan Straily (12-6, 3.81 ERA) round out an extremely solid rotation, and Aroldis Chapman (3-1, 2.01 ERA in 31+ IP for SoCal) heads a deep and talented bullpen.

While the Slyme coasted to the playoffs, it was anything but an easy ride for the Chicago Black Sox, who suffered yet another mysterious slow start in a franchise history filled with mysterious slow starts.  Chicago went just 13-15 in Chapter One before busting out in Chapter Two with a record of 20-8.  They suffered a relapse in Chapter Three, going 11-13, and headed into the all-star break with a four game lead over the Akron Ryche.

They played .500 ball over the next two chapters, which should have allowed the Ryche and Cleveland Rocks to gain ground.  Instead, those two teams lost ground, and Chicago cruised to the division title with a 19-9 record in Chapter Six.

Chicago's pitching staff was led by a pair of 20-game winners: Madison Bumgarner (21-5, 2.77 ERA) and Jordan Zimmerman (20-10, 3.27).  James Shields (12-15, 5.08 ERA) was mysteriously horrendous all season, but he wasn't as mysteriously horrendous as Jeff Samardzija.  After signing for $6 million in the off-season, Samardzija went 9-18 on the season, with an ERA of 5.53 in 211+ innings.  Both Shields and Samardzija posted ERA's over a full run above their MLB numbers.

Offensively, Chicago failed to have one player reach 100 runs created for the first time since 1999.  Jacoby Ellsbury (.290/.344/.419, 91.7 RC) was the team's best hitter by that measure.  Bryce Harper (.273/.369/.514) and Yasiel Puig (.291/.366/.501) both enjoyed productive seasons as well.

The Black Sox hit just .239/.309/.381 against left-handed pitching this season, which is no surprise, given that their top three hitters (in terms of RC) are all left-handed.  This shouldn't be an issue against the all-righty SoCal rotation.  If Bob Sylvester wanted to get cute, however, he could start lefty Tom Gorzelanny, who is eligible to pitch seven innings in the Division Series, and held lefties to a .184/.322/.327 triple-slash line this season.  Of course, Chapman could also play a huge role in this series, given the possibility of a late-innings matchup against Harper, Ellsbury and Fielder.

During the regular season, the Black Sox went just 3-9 against the Slyme in head-to-head play.  Two of those three wins were by a margin of one run.  Interestingly, Gorzellany started twice against Chicago, and won both games: one against Zimmerman, the other a 1-0 extra-innings win over Bumgarner.

The Slyme should match up well against the lefty Bumgarner, as they posted an .818 OPS against lefties this season -- highest in the EL.  They also posted the highest OPS in the EL (.742) against righties as well.

Given SoCal's dominance over Chicago during the regular season, it looks like an uphill battle in the Division Series for the Black Sox.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	100-60	761	594	167	55-25	45-35	.761	.816	.740	3.54	.675	.692	.660
	100-60	723	541	182	57-23	43-37	.744	.834	.720	3.20	.635	.624	.644

Check out those numbers above.  It would be difficult to find two more evenly-matched teams in this post-season.  The Outlaws and Cowtippers finished the season with identical 100-60 records.  They are separated by only 38 runs scored and 53 runs allowed.  They both won around 70% of their home games and 55% of their away games.  They both slaughtered left-handed pitching all season, and held their own against righties.  And both teams were carried to the playoffs on the strength of their pitching and defense.

Winning the division title was a big deal for the Flagstaff franchise, as it took Greg Newgard a dozen years to do so.  The Outlaws have been no strangers to the post-season, but up to now, Newgard has had to settle for winning the wild card.  Conversely, the Cowtippers won eight division titles in their first eleven years, but have had to settle for the wild card three years in a row now.

Not surprisingly, these two teams split their regular season match-ups, with each team winning four of their six home games.  Flagstaff's Purina Park and Salem's Sam Adams Stadium share very similar ballpark factors, so you wouldn't think that home field advantage would benefit either team despite their regular season records.

The Game One matchup will most likely feature Ubaldo Jimenez (19-8, 3.20 ERA) starting for Flagstaff, and Max Scherzer (20-8, 1.79) on the hill for Salem.  Those two pitchers went toe-to-toe three times this season, and Flagstaff walked away with the win each and every time.  Jimenez posted an ERA of 1.27 in those three starts, while Scherzer walked away with a hard-luck loss, including a 1-0 loss in their third meeting.

Game Two could see a pair of righty-killing aces facing righty-heavy lineups.  For Salem, Stephen Strasburg (16-7, 2.64) has been lights-out all season against righties, holding them to a .188/.255/.265 triple-slash line.  Flagstaff could go with lefty Gio Gonzalez (16-7, 3.40) in Game Two, as he was their #2 pitcher throughout the season.  But they could also give the ball to Tyson Ross (12-7, 2.89), who held righties to just .211/.258/.347 this season.

Those two righty-killers will be incredibly important in this series, as the Salem starting lineup features just one left-handed batter, Joey Votto (.300/.435/.506 for Salem), and the Flagstaff lineup includes only one southpaw, Josh Hamilton (.255/.329/.400), and one switch hitter, Everth Cabrera (.305/.380/.426).

Salem will have no choice but to use two left-handers in Games Three and Four, as the only other right-hander in the starting rotation is Matt Cain, who has been clobbered by righties all season, and likely will be left off of the playoffs roster.  Francisco Liriano (6-0, 2.15 ERA in 54+ innings for Salem) held his own against righties this season, as did Derek Holland (15-12, 3.61) and Bruce Chen (9-5, 5.10).

Either Gonzalez or Ross will likely be tabbed for the Game Three start for Flagstaff, and John Lackey (13-9, 3.93) seems like the most likely candidate to start Game Four.  Lackey has pitched very well against Salem this season, allowing only one run in three starts (20+ innings.)

The Outlaws lost only six games this season out of the 96 games in which they were either tied or led after seven innings.  The reason for that is the three-headed monster in their bullpen.  Luke Hochevar (1.21 ERA in 67 IP), Glenn Perkins (1.27 in 35+ for Flagstaff) and Luis Avilan (1.46 ERA in 55+ IP) each finished the season with an ERA under 2.00.  Hochevar, however, is the only right-hander in the group.

Half of the games played between these two evenly-matched teams during the regular season were decided by a margin of one run.  I wouldn't expect anything different in the playoffs.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	100-60	823	594	229	51-29	49-31	.753	.788	.739	3.37	.682	.716	.658
	95-65	719	615	104	50-30	45-35	.729	.731	.728	3.54	.684	.733	.645

This matchup was never supposed to happen.  In my Pre-Season Preview, I picked the Kansas Law Dogs to win the Higuera Division, with Wyoming battling for that top spot throughout the season, and the Sphinx trailing the league in last place.  In pre-season polling, the league seemed to agree with me, picking Kansas to barely top Wyoming by a tally of nine votes to eight.  The Sphinx didn't receive a single vote.

So, what happened?  How did we get here?  Well, in my Preview, I listed the Sphinx's pitching staff as their greatest weakness and predicted that staff would allow a lot of runs in 2014.  Instead, Great Lakes allowed fewer runs (569) than any other team in the Eck League, and posted a team ERA of 3.26 -- tops in the EL.

The Great Lakes starting rotation is filled with pitchers who seem as though they would be #3 or #4 starters for most BDBL teams, and yet somehow, they got the job done all year.  Tim Lincecum (11-5, 2.98 ERA) led the starting staff in ERA, innings (187+) and strikeouts (209).  This, despite the fact that he had a rather unremarkable MLB season (4.37 ERA in 197+ IP) in 2013.

Hector Santiago (who?) contributed a 10-7 record and 3.10 ERA in 148 innings to the team.  Nate Eovaldi (yes, the big names keep cropping up) went 8-4 with a 3.16 ERA in 114 innings.  Scott Feldman (Scott Feldman!) went 9-6 with a 3.21 ERA in 171 innings.  And late addition Bartolo Colon went 8-6 with a 3.29 ERA in 115 innings as a member of the Sphinx.  A.J. Griffin (yes, THE A.J. Griffin) also contributed 12 wins and a 3.68 ERA in 185+ innings.

This no-name starting rotation was backed by a completely AMAZING bullpen, filled with equally yawn-inducing names that you would never guess would comprise one of the league's best bullpens.  David Purcey (0.34 ERA in 26+ IP) and Rex Brothers (0.83 ERA in 43+ IP) each posted an ERA under 1.00 this season.  Someone named Coleman (1.27), Edward Mujica (1.35), Steve Delabar (1.60) and someone named Russell (1.85) each added an ERA under 2.00.  That's SIX Sphinx relievers with a combined ERA of 1.17 in 169+ innings!  If those six no-name pitchers were one guy, that guy would be the EL Cy Young award winner.

Incredibly, three other Sphinx relievers finished the season with ERA's under 3.00: J.J. Putz (2.20), Pedro Strop (2.21) and Kevin Gregg (2.97).  In total, EIGHTEEN different pitchers on the current Great Lakes roster posted an ERA under 4.00 this season.  THAT, my friends, is amazing.

The most amazing part about the Ridgebacks' inaugural season under new management is that they had such a difficult time winning the division.  With the Law Dogs slumping early, it seemed like a prime opportunity for Wyoming to cruise to another division title, unimpeded.  Instead, they battled with the Sphinx, neck-and-neck, from Opening Day to the very last week.

The Ridgebacks finished second in the EL in runs scored, with 746, thanks to the performances of Mike Trout (.292/.407/.546, 86 XBH), Hanley Ramirez (.340/.391/.606), Carlos Quentin (.294/.386/.528) and Aramis Ramirez (.277/.366/.485).

In sixteen regular season match-ups between these two teams, the Ridgebacks walked away with ten wins, and outscored the Sphinx by a tally of 71-61.  Sanchez won all three of his starts against the Sphinx, and Cobb won three games as well.  Not surprisingly, a Great Lakes reliever earned the "W" in five of their six wins.

As good as the Great Lakes bullpen has been this season, Wyoming's pen was perhaps the best in the BDBL.  Closer Koji Uehara saved a BDBL-high 53 games and posted a 1.83 ERA in 78+ innings, allowing just 5 walks all season.  Sergio Santos (0.67 in 27 IP), Josh Outman (1.12 in 40+ IP) and Michael Dunn (1.45 in 31 IP) each finished with an ERA under 2.00.  All told, the Wyoming bullpen allowed only 23.3% of their inherited baserunners to score -- the best rate in the league.  Their blown save rate of 16.5% also topped the EL.

If this series boils down to the bullpens, you have to give the slight advantage of Wyoming.  If it is decided by the offense, Wyoming gets a big advantage.  If it is decided by the starting rotation, Wyoming once again earns the advantage.  Fortunately for Scott Romonosky, playoff series are usually decided by only one factor: random luck.