October, 2014
Best of
the Forum, 2014
Put me down for $100 on the
Cowtippers. I would make the Slyme a slight favorite, but that is
how I would bet this series!
-- Jeff Paulson, 11/14/13
Betting on the Cowtippers...in the
WORLD SERIES? Even Pete Rose wouldn't do that if he were managing
the Slyme!
[Mike] Moustakas is Sean
Burroughs reincarnated (except that Burroughs had a little bit of
success by this point in his career.)
-- Mike Glander, 11/23/13
Time for a classic Player A/Player B
comparison.
Moustakas, MLB career: .236/.290/.379,
668 OPS, 82 OPS+ in 1,993 PA's
Burroughs, at age 25: .280/.340/.358, 698 OPS, 91 OPS+ in 1,690 PA's
Sorry, Mike Moustakas, but you're no
Sean Burroughs.
I think [Evan] Gattis is
going to suck. I am amazed at the success he has had so far. He has
tremendous power, but couldn't go opposite field if his life
depended on it and he will never change from what I see. The league
will adjust to him with breaking balls, off speed and pitching away.
He pulls everything. Maybe I am the only one who feels this way. Ah,
what do I know.
-- John Gill, 11/26/13
Gattis, 2013: .243/.291/.480, 21 HR in
382 PA
Gattis, 2014: .263/.317/.493, 22 HR in 401 PA
Looks like he adjusted just fine.
Keep an eye on [Eric] Sogard:
He'll be Jose Altuve 2.0 in 2014.
-- Ryan Glander, 12/2/13
It looks like "Jose Altuve 2.0" looks
more like Windows 8.0. Or maybe "New Coke." Or "After
M*A*S*H."
"Letting [Jason] Castro go
was necessary to dump [Mike] Napoli's $14M contract."
Just so I understand this correctly: because you insisted on
overpaying for Napoli two years ago, it cost you an underpriced
catcher this year and the next four years.
This is no way to dig out of a 14-year hole.
-- Mike Glander, 12/3/13
No...no it isn't.
I like [Eric Sogard]...looks
like a good bet for a 280/370/400 guy---and out of Oakland going
into DMB at middle infield that will make him a very good cheap
player.
-- Bobby Sylvester, 12/2/13
Wait. This is the same
28-year-old Eric Sogard who owned the career .239/.291/.343 triple-slash
line at the time this was written...right?
NYG sends Brett Cecil to
Akron for Todd Helton and David Ross.
-- Jim Doyle, 12/7/13
This was one of the more amusing Doyle
trades of this past year, and it deserves a follow-up. Cecil has had a
fine year (5-3, 3.20 ERA in 59 IP, 457 OPS vs. LH, 626 OPS vs. RH) for
the Ryche, and at $3.1MM in salary, he should have a similar year (if
not better) next year. Meanwhile, both Helton and Ross were RELEASED by
Doyle less than twenty days later.
Helton was then RE-ACQUIRED by Doyle in the draft (in the 30th round),
while Ross was re-acquired by Akron in the 20th.
Doyle then turned down a trade offer for Helton (who will be retiring at
the end of the season) at the Chapter Five trading deadline. He rejected
the offer, but then proceeded to release Helton and replace him with
Carlos Pena, who was the overall #1 pick of that draft.
If you understood any of that, please apply immediately to an intern
position within the New York Giants front office.
In conclusion, the Giants
gave up a ton of 2014 value while taking on $12.4 million in salary,
and gave up a ton of future value while taking on $11.5MM in 2015
salary, all in the hope that [Mike] Moustakas, [James] Paxton and
[Noah] Syndergaard outperform [Will] Middlebrooks, [Hyun-Jin] Ryu,
[Christian] Bethancourt and Casey Kelly.
-- Mike Glander, 12/8/13
Yep, that pretty much sums it up!
You traded [Mike] Carp and
[Garrett] Richards for [Derek] Holland and [Alex] Rios. There is no
way something else isn't involved.
-- Anthony Peburn, 12/16/13
There wasn't. And yeah, I ended
up giving up too much, as I normally do. A starting rotation with
Scherzer, Strasburg, Kazmir and Richards would have been awfully tough
in 2015. But you know, I just HAD to have Derek Holland for some
reason.
The 'Tippers have traded Jake
Arrieta to the DiStefano/Patterson Superteam in exchange for Mark
Reynolds.
-- Mike Glander, 12/21/13
Must stop trading with Tom.
Must stop trading with Tom.
Must stop trading with Tom.
Yikes. I am a huge Alex Cobb
fan, and tried to get him earlier this winter. Niagara is going to
regret this [trade of Cobb and Juan Nicasio for Greg Holland and
Matt Dominguez.]
-- Mike Glander, 12/22/13
Cobb missed some time with injuries,
but still posted a career high in innings (166+) in MLB, and finished
with an ERA below 3.00 for the second year in a row. I still
believe he's one of the better pitchers in baseball, and has yet to post
his best numbers.
Granite State trades Mike
Fiers for Preston Claiborne. ...It's a Festivus miracle that I got
out of work five minutes early.
-- Ryan Glander, 12/23/13, 9:56pm.
Something tells me Ryan will have a new
grievance to air this Festivus season.
You are going to be getting a
lot of Jen Ho Tseng and his 95 mph fastball in the coming years.
-- Anthony Peburn, 1/3/14
I'll bet you $1 Jen won't be a Blazer by this time next year.
-- Mike Glander, 1/3/14
I'll take the dollar now. Thank
you.
Didn't notice [Shin-Soo]
Choo's splits. $10.5 is high, then.
-- Anthony Peburn, 1/4/14
Ha. Sure you didn't, Peburn.
Sure you didn't.
Peburn is the Debbie Wasserman Schultz
of the BDBL. (And only a truly pathetic political geek would get
that reference.)
My guess is that [Yadier]
Molina goes for a crazy high price.
-- Anthony Peburn, 1/4/14
Well, he would have gone for a
completely reasonable salary if it weren't for that meddling Tony Chamra.
That [Blazers] lineup is
going to be impressively difficult to beat if you throw a right
hander. I don't know how well they will hit lefties...they may set a
record for most left handed pitchers faced in a season (unless they
are targeting a lefty killer later in this draft).
-- Jeff Paulson, 1/5/14
Nostrapaulson.
The all-time BDBL record for
percentage of total available dollars spent in the auction is 69%
(in 2010). I would bet that we smash that record this year. We're
already at 32% after only five lots have ended.
-- Mike Glander, 1/8/14
Actually, only 60% of our available
dollars were spent in the auction, which would barely rank among the top
five.
Oh, if only we could peer
into some parallel universe where Gene didn't leave his franchise
and stayed with the Fire Ants. If that had happened, then I would
have had a $7 Yadier Molina and $5 million extra to spend. I may not
have ended up with Scherzer (my top bid was $14.5MM), but I probably
would've had Samardzija PLUS either Lee, Wainwright or Hamels.
-- Mike Glander, 1/9/14
It's funny how some things work out
better than you could have imagined. As it turned out, I'm much
better off with Scherzer, Molina and Kazmir than I would have been with
Samardzija, Lee and some other catcher.
I doubt anyone would go Type
H on Kazmir. Way too risky.
-- Mike Glander, 1/11/14
Ha. See what I did there?
Y'all like my Peburn-like
misdirection? "No one will go Type H on Kazmir. He's far too risky!"
[LOL]
Leave it up to Doyle to go Type H on a pitcher that he insisted was
washed up five years ago. [LOL]
Several years ago, I went Type H on an oft-injured relief pitcher
named Kelvim Escobar. People thought I was crazy, but I had a strong
hunch that he would be a bargain the following year. Sure enough,
that MLB season, he was moved into the starting rotation, he was
healthy all season, and he became a Cy Young contender for me the
following season. I think Kazmir will be my next Kelvim Escobar.
-- Mike Glander, 1/12/14
Kazmir, 2014: 190 IP, 171 IP, 16 HR, 50
BB, 164 K, 3.55 ERA
Escobar, 2006: 189 IP, 192 H, 17 HR, 50 BB, 147 K, 3.61 ERA
WOW! Come on, you have to admit
that's an incredible prediction!
But even more nonsensical is
Doyle's signing of Infante, who is a 31-year-old second baseman
whose greatest asset is his ability to slap a few more singles than
the average hitter. Not only was it a nonsensical signing for this
year, but Infante's $5.5MM salary means the Giants are on the hook
for $12 million over the next two seasons. Ask Greg Newgard how
going Type H on Infante worked out for him.
-- Mike Glander, 1/13/14
Let's check in on Mr. Infante.
.252/.295/.337, 632 OPS in 575 PA.
You know, I just can't understand why
Doyle loses so many games every year.
The biggest mystery of this
auction: who is Mike Ranney going to play behind the plate this
year? The Locks had more than $25 million to spend in this auction,
and it seemed like a given that they would use some of that cash to
fill that spot. Yet Ranney didn't even submit a bid for any of the
five catchers in this auction. The only logical conclusion is that
he either traded for a catcher (and is keeping it a secret for some
reason) or that he's planning to draft Victor Martinez. Holding the
#7 draft slot, and with very few decent players available in the
draft, hoping that Martinez slides to pick #7 in the third round is
a huge gamble.
-- Mike Glander, 1/13/14
Mystery solved, huh? Talk about a
gamble paying off. The next time you go to Vegas, Ranney, let me
know.
Paying $7.5MM for Cueto kind
of negates the whole purpose of landing a guy with more future value
than present value, no?
-- Mike Glander, 1/13/14
Well, you would think so. But no.
I can't wait to see James Loney hit
.360 this season.
-- Mike Glander, 1/18/14
At press time, Loney is hitting "only"
.344 for the Blazers this season. Remember, this is a guy who hit
.299 in MLB. Amazing what a 10-point difference in LH singles
factor will do for a lefty's batting average, eh?
(And, by the way, the Dodgers' LH 1B
factor is 101. Above average.)
And speaking of ridiculous home
ballpark numbers...
[Anthony Peburn] won 80% of
his home games last year. I'm betting he'll break that record this
year.
-- Mike Glander, 1/21/14
At press time, New Milford's home
winning percentage is a robust .807. That would be a new all-time
BDBL record.
This trade makes zero sense
to me from Cleveland's perspective. Adding [Evan] Longoria isn't
going to change the fact that the Rocks will likely score near the
bottom of the league in runs this season. And they just gave a
$100,000 ace [Jordan Zimmerman] to the best team in their own
division.
-- Mike Glander, 1/23/14
As I type, the Rocks rank #7 in the Eck
League in runs per game, at 4.0. Longoria leads the team (by a
wide margin) in runs created, with 105.2. Meanwhile, Zimmerman has
won 19 games for the Black Sox, and owns a 3.34 ERA in 229 innings.
Setting aside their contracts and salaries, as well as their future
value, I'd call that a win-win trade.
I just don't know how you can
rip off your own flesh and blood and be OK with it. Repeatedly. I
know times in Salem are tough and division titles are scace, but
damn, your own son? Miguel Almonte? Come on.
-- Anthony Peburn, 5/5/14
You'd have to big a pretty huge
scum-sucking pile of moose shit to accuse a man of ripping off his own
son, but it's not the first time Peburn has played that despicable card,
and I'm sure it won't be the last.
The object of Peburn's bile this time
was Matt Cain, who was dealt to me in that trade. In 93+ innings,
Cain has posted a 4.71 ERA for me, and a 4-8 record. There is a
very good chance he will not make Salem's post-season roster.
Yikes. Scott will regret this
one [trading Jorge Soler, Christian Bethancourt and Hunter Renfroe
for Bartolo Colon, Rex Brothers and Brandon Barnes] in a few years.
-- Mike Glander, 5/5/14
Unfortunately for Scott, it didn't take
a few years to begin regretting that deal.
By the end of the year
[Tommy] Hunter could very well be worth his 2 mil salary, even if it
is just a one year signing. He has had awful luck. His peripheral
numbers are very good and his ERA should be about 3 runs lower than
what it is right now.
I'll bet before it is all said and done this MLB season, Hunter is
more worthy of a roster spot at 2 mil next year than [Jonathan]
Schoop.
-- Gene Patterson, 5/29/14
True 'nuff. Hunter has not only
been an ace out of the Blazers' bullpen this season, but with a 2.97 ERA
in 60+ innings in MLB, he will be an asset for New Milford next season
as well. Jonathan Schoop? Errr...not so much. But
Peburn didn't make this trade with his son, so it's okay.
The Lightning trade:
Kenta Maeda
-for-
Jose Altuve
-- Ryan Glander, 6/6/14
Don't worry. Bobby got a prospect
to be named later thrown in, just to make it even.
Tanner Roark came up to the
big leagues as a 26 year old. In the MINOR leagues he had a 4.04
ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, started in the frontier league, and was
never considered a prospect in an capacity. If you think that player
is going to sustain his success then be my guest, but I have little
doubt he will be worth less than 5 million next season.
-- Bobby Sylvester, 6/13/14
Is there anyone who wouldn't pay $5
million for Tanner Roark next season? Anyone? Bobby?
You there?
Whats the big deal about
Roenis Elias? Sure he has a lot of decent innings, but his stuff and
minor league numbers suggest he won't be worthy of a rotation spot
in the BDBL ever.
-- Bobby Sylvester, 6/16/14
With his 3.85 ERA in 163+ innings,
Elias will be a proud member of Salem's rotation next year.
However, he wasn't even my best free agent pick-up that chapter.
That honor goes to...
I may have snagged a second
starting pitcher for next season with Shoemaker, though we'll have
to see how that one pans out.
-- Mike Glander, 6/16/14
Sometimes, you take a gamble, and it
pays off. It doesn't happen often, but when it does, oh how sweet
it is.
This is another
head-scratcher from yesterday. [Dallas] Keuchel has had a tremendous
season in MLB, and is only $500K. Even if he were a full-time
league-average pitcher (which he may end up being), at $500K he is
like gold. Why trade him for a second baseman [Marcell Ozuna] with a
.310 OBP and a couple of C-grade prospects?
-- Mike Glander, 6/13/14
Four months later, I still don't
understand that trade.
[My home/road split is] a
small sample size.
-- Anthony Peburn, 2/10/14
Wait to the end of the season to pass judgement, all of you nut
jobs.
-- Anthony Peburn, 6/30/14
And to glanders anti small sample size argument, every chapter, as
the sample grows, the numbers normalize as I predicted. I wonder how
they wil look 16 series from now?
-- Anthony Peburn, 7/2/14
This is a sort of "Greatest Hits"
compilation from Peburn's hilarious denial of his cheesiness through the
"small sample" argument all season. Just in case you're wondering,
his current home/road split stands at a whopping 321 points -- by far, a
new BDBL record. But to be fair, 148 games is still a really small
sample. We'll need to play at least 10-15 more seasons before we
can know just how cheesy his cartoon ballpark is.
From Buster Olney:
Right now, Starlin Castro on pace for 183 hits, 21 homers, a total
of 72 XBH.
-- Mike Stein, 7/2/14
Final totals: 154 hits, 14 HR and 48
XBH. Close...
Based on my away record the last three
years and playing bad teams at home and good teams on the road so far
this year, this is still a small sample size. At the end of the season
if my away record is THAT much worse than the rest of the playoff teams,
I will consider this nonsense you guys are trying to spread. It will
even out at I play the bad teams on the road and beat them.
-- Anthony Peburn, 7/8/14
Oh, shit. Another "small sample"
argument that missed the Greatest Hits compilation. Here, Peburn
implies that his home record is actually pretty accurate; it's his away
record that was all out of whack. What's his current away record,
you ask? Glad you asked.
It's 34-36. Wha-wha-whaaaaaaa.
(I hope I'm wrong, but) I
think [Francisco] Liriano is going to finish the year very strong
and will be a great value next year, and the year after.
-- Brian Potrafka, 7/29/14
Liriano's numbers prior to 7/29: 88 IP,
8.1 H/9, 4.6 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, .236/.332/.379
Liriano's numbers after 7/29: 74 IP, 6.2 H/9, 4.1 BB/9, 10.0 K/9,
.196/.291/.269
All of those walks are going to drive
me crazy next year, but it could be much worse. Like I said,
sometimes you take a gamble, and it just works out.
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