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slant.gif (102 bytes) From the Desk of the Commish

Commish

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January, 2015

2015 Draft Day Preview

It's that time of year again. Time for "damn you's" and complaints about people taking too long to pick. Time for displaying outrageous outrage over the exorbitant cost of mediocre free agents. Time for second-guessing yourself immediately after hitting the "submit" button. And, of course, time for Jim Doyle to ask about who is eligible for the Farm Draft.

How does this year's auction class compare to others?

Last year on this page, I wrote: "the Class of 2015 appears to be the weakest auction class we have ever had." This class has certainly lived down to expectations:

2003: 2006.9
2004: 2210.3
2005: 2155.9
2006: 1903.2
2007: 1858.0
2008: 1522.4
2009: 1239.8
2010: 1475.4
2011: 1230.1
2012: 995.3
2013: 947.0
2014: 1237.1
2015: 898.1

If you think that's bad, take a look at only the top ten in VORP:

2003: 729.6
2004: 680.8
2005: 762.0
2006: 621.8
2007: 654.2
2008: 579.5
2009: 524.4
2010: 582.9
2011: 488.3
2012: 415.6
2013: 373.5
2014: 434.9
2015: 314.6

The best player in this auction (by VORP) is Russell Martin, a 31-year-old catcher who had only 379 at-bats in MLB last year. He posted an impressive .832 OPS overall, in a very tough hitters park, but the problem is that he's a platoon player -- and a reverse-platoon hitter at that. He hit only .257 with a .270 slugging percentage against lefties, although he did manage a .423 OBP.

The crown jewel of this auction class was supposed to be Troy Tulowitzki, but he injured himself in July, and missed the rest of the season. He amassed just 315 at-bats last year, but was a stud (.340/.432/.603) before he was injured. In this horrendous market, and with offense being so scarce overall, this part-time player may still see a salary of $10 million or more.

J.D. Martinez was one of the biggest surprises of the 2014 MLB season. A career .251/.300/.387 hitter heading into '14, Martinez shocked the baseball establishment by posting a .315/.358/.553 triple-slash line, with 23 homers. He will be an MVP candidate for some team this year, and will likely earn the biggest payday. Of course, there are many doubts about whether he can ever repeat that performance, and he is a high risk to be an expensive albatross around the neck of whichever team wins that bid this winter. But history shows that contending teams don't tend to consider long-term ramifications much -- if at all.

Nelson Cruz (.271/.333/.525, 40 HR) and Lucas Duda (.253/.349/.481) are also locks to earn "Type H" contracts in January. After that, there aren't many deserving hitters who deserve such a high salary. That, however, won't stop teams from bidding more than they're worth to plug a glaring hole or two.

Believe it or not, Chris Iannetta, who was released by Wyoming this winter, is the sixth-ranked hitter available in the auction, according to VORP. Dustin Pedroia, Juan Uribe, Dexter Fowler and David Ortiz are all on that $5 million bubble. All it will take is one owner who is desperate enough to bid an extra $500,000, and they may easily be Type H free agents as well.

On the pitching side, James Shields (227 IP, 3.21 ERA) is a workhorse, and is highly likely to land a salary somewhere near $10 million this winter. Given that he is the ONLY quality starting pitcher in this auction who tossed more than 160 innings last year, he may see a bump up into the $12-$15 million range.

Gio Gonzalez (158+ IP, 3.57 ERA) and Homer Bailey (145+ IP, 3.71 ERA) were supposed to be at the top of this list, but both suffered through an injury-plagued season. Still, despite their lower usage, both are highly likely to see a salary around $7 million or higher. The only other player in the auction who may earn a Type H salary is Brandon McCarthy, who had a rather pedestrian season (200 IP, 4.05 ERA) in the context of the Year of the Pitcher, but makes up for a lack of dominance with a ton of usage.

This auction is filled with players who shined in recent years, but who suffered through a poor performance and/or an injury-plagued MLB season in 2014. This group includes Joe Mauer, Andre Ethier, Chris Davis, Aramis Ramirez, Elvis Andrus, Derek Holland, Matt Wieters, Coco Crisp and Mike Napoli. I wouldn't be shocked to see at least one of them earn a Type H salary.

What about the draft class?

Pickings appear slim, my friends. Those looking for innings can find them in guys like R.A. Dickey (215+ IP, 3.71 ERA), Bartolo Colon (202+ IP, 4.09 ERA), Kyle Kendrick (199 IP, 4.05 ERA) and Kyle Lohse (198+ IP, 3.54 ERA), to name just a few. It seems that the VORP formula was heavily-skewed by the dearth of offense in 2014, so many pitchers that would have normally been in the auction were pushed out of the top fifty.

If it's a bullpen arm you need, you could do worse than Ken Giles (45+ IP, 1.18 ERA), Joaquin Benoit (54+ IP, 1.49 ERA), Joe Smith (74+ IP, 1.81 ERA), Santiago Casilla (58+ IP, 1.70 ERA), Jonathan Papelbon (66+ IP, 2.04 ERA) or Darren O'Day (68+ IP, 1.70 ERA), to name only a handful of dozens of quality performers.

If you're looking for some buy-low candidates, there are Matt Cain, Glen Perkins, Brandon Morrow, Gordon Beckham, Justin Smoak, Billy Butler, B.J. Upton and Carlos Quentin.

How much money is out there this year?

If you are in dire need of some reinforcements in order to compete in 2015, I've already covered the bad news. Now, here is some good news: you won't have a lot of competition in your bidding.

Year Total cash available # of free agents needed Cash per player $ spent in auction
2003 $557.1m 360 $1.55m $328.5m (59%)
2004 $606.2m 343 $1.77m $363.5m (60%)
2005 $498.2m 292 $1.71m $318m (64%)
2006 $621.3m 327 $1.90m $341.5m (55%)
2007 $569.0m 296 $1.92m $364.5m (64%)
2008 $595.5m 320 $1.86m $324.0m (54%)
2009 $543.3m 292 $1.86m $289.5m (53%)
2010 $417.5m 261 $1.60m $289.5m (69%)
2011 $472.9m 295 $1.60m $269.0m (57%)
2012 $361.0m 267 $1.35m $214.5m (59%)
2013 $511.8m 293 $1.75m $272.0m (53%)
2014 $489.0m 297 $1.64m $296.5m (61%)
2015 $352.5m 275 $1.28m TBD

Thanks, in part, to an unusual number of penalties doled out in 2014, there isn't a lot of money on the board this winter. It is the least amount of available cash in the free agent market in league history, and the $1.25 million per player is the lowest in history by a whopping 5.5 percent.

Which teams will be spending all this money?

Anthony Peburn may have fallen short of his goal of world domination in 2014, but he will have $34 million to reconstruct the Death Star in 2015. South Carolina ($31.6MM) and Chicago ($31MM) will also have northwards of $30 large to spend this winter.

Frighteningly enough, the St. Louis Apostles have a whopping $27.5 million to spend on just seven players -- an average of nearly $4 million per player. That average spending figure is dwarfed, however, by the Big River Beavers, who have a ginormous $6 million per player budget.

At the other end of the spectrum, both the Granite State Lightning and Salem Cowtippers left themselves with nothing but $100,000 picks. Both teams will sit on the sidelines until Round 26. The New York Giants ($2.9MM to spend) and Bear Country Jamboree ($4.7MM) are nearly in the same boat.

How does the Class of 2016 look at this point?

Save your pennies. 2016 has the potential to be the best class of free agents the league has ever seen. On the pitching side, Ervin Santana, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Jon Lester, Jered Weaver, Jake Arrieta, Felix Hernandez, Hiroshi Iwakuma, Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Matt Garza, Ian Kennedy and Jake Peavy will all be vying for your hard-earned dollars.

On the offensive side, we're looking at Miguel Cabrera, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Jayson Werth, Hanley Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton, Chase Headley, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Braun and Ian Desmond.