January, 2015
2015
Draft Day Preview
It's
that time of year again. Time for "damn you's" and complaints about
people taking too long to pick. Time for displaying outrageous outrage
over the exorbitant cost of mediocre free agents. Time for
second-guessing yourself immediately after hitting the "submit" button.
And, of course, time for Jim Doyle to ask about who is eligible for the
Farm Draft.
How does this year's auction
class compare to others?
Last year on this page, I wrote: "the
Class of 2015 appears to be the weakest auction class we have ever had."
This class has certainly lived down to expectations:
2003: 2006.9
2004: 2210.3
2005: 2155.9
2006: 1903.2
2007: 1858.0
2008: 1522.4
2009: 1239.8
2010: 1475.4
2011: 1230.1
2012: 995.3
2013: 947.0
2014: 1237.1
2015: 898.1
If you think that's bad, take a look at
only the top ten in VORP:
2003: 729.6
2004: 680.8
2005: 762.0
2006: 621.8
2007: 654.2
2008: 579.5
2009: 524.4
2010: 582.9
2011: 488.3
2012: 415.6
2013: 373.5
2014: 434.9
2015: 314.6
The best player in this
auction (by VORP) is Russell Martin, a 31-year-old catcher who had only
379 at-bats in MLB last year. He posted an impressive .832 OPS overall,
in a very tough hitters park, but the problem is that he's a platoon
player -- and a reverse-platoon hitter at that. He hit only .257 with a
.270 slugging percentage against lefties, although he did manage a .423
OBP.
The crown jewel of this
auction class was supposed to be Troy Tulowitzki, but he injured himself
in July, and missed the rest of the season. He amassed just 315 at-bats
last year, but was a stud (.340/.432/.603) before he was injured. In
this horrendous market, and with offense being so scarce overall, this
part-time player may still see a salary of $10 million or more.
J.D. Martinez was one of
the biggest surprises of the 2014 MLB season. A career .251/.300/.387
hitter heading into '14, Martinez shocked the baseball establishment by
posting a .315/.358/.553 triple-slash line, with 23 homers. He will be
an MVP candidate for some team this year, and will likely earn the
biggest payday. Of course, there are many doubts about whether he can
ever repeat that performance, and he is a high risk to be an expensive
albatross around the neck of whichever team wins that bid this winter.
But history shows that contending teams don't tend to consider long-term
ramifications much -- if at all.
Nelson Cruz
(.271/.333/.525, 40 HR) and Lucas Duda (.253/.349/.481) are also locks
to earn "Type H" contracts in January. After that, there aren't many
deserving hitters who deserve such a high salary. That, however, won't
stop teams from bidding more than they're worth to plug a glaring hole
or two.
Believe it or not, Chris
Iannetta, who was released by Wyoming this winter, is the sixth-ranked
hitter available in the auction, according to VORP. Dustin Pedroia, Juan
Uribe, Dexter Fowler and David Ortiz are all on that $5 million bubble.
All it will take is one owner who is desperate enough to bid an extra
$500,000, and they may easily be Type H free agents as well.
On the pitching side,
James Shields (227 IP, 3.21 ERA) is a workhorse, and is highly likely to
land a salary somewhere near $10 million this winter. Given that he is
the ONLY quality starting pitcher in this auction who tossed more than
160 innings last year, he may see a bump up into the $12-$15 million
range.
Gio Gonzalez (158+ IP,
3.57 ERA) and Homer Bailey (145+ IP, 3.71 ERA) were supposed to be at
the top of this list, but both suffered through an injury-plagued
season. Still, despite their lower usage, both are highly likely to see
a salary around $7 million or higher. The only other player in the
auction who may earn a Type H salary is Brandon McCarthy, who had a
rather pedestrian season (200 IP, 4.05 ERA) in the context of the Year
of the Pitcher, but makes up for a lack of dominance with a ton of
usage.
This auction is filled
with players who shined in recent years, but who suffered through a poor
performance and/or an injury-plagued MLB season in 2014. This group
includes Joe Mauer, Andre Ethier, Chris Davis, Aramis Ramirez, Elvis
Andrus, Derek Holland, Matt Wieters, Coco Crisp and Mike Napoli. I
wouldn't be shocked to see at least one of them earn a Type H salary.
What about the draft class?
Pickings appear slim, my friends. Those
looking for innings can find them in guys like R.A. Dickey (215+ IP,
3.71 ERA), Bartolo Colon (202+ IP, 4.09 ERA), Kyle Kendrick (199 IP,
4.05 ERA) and Kyle Lohse (198+ IP, 3.54 ERA), to name just a few. It
seems that the VORP formula was heavily-skewed by the dearth of offense
in 2014, so many pitchers that would have normally been in the auction
were pushed out of the top fifty.
If it's a bullpen arm you need, you
could do worse than Ken Giles (45+ IP, 1.18 ERA), Joaquin Benoit (54+
IP, 1.49 ERA), Joe Smith (74+ IP, 1.81 ERA), Santiago Casilla (58+ IP,
1.70 ERA), Jonathan Papelbon (66+ IP, 2.04 ERA) or Darren O'Day (68+ IP,
1.70 ERA), to name only a handful of dozens of quality performers.
If you're looking for some buy-low
candidates, there are Matt Cain, Glen Perkins, Brandon Morrow, Gordon
Beckham, Justin Smoak, Billy Butler, B.J. Upton and Carlos Quentin.
How much money is out there this year?
If you are in dire need of some
reinforcements in order to compete in 2015, I've already covered the bad
news. Now, here is some good news: you won't have a lot of competition
in your bidding.
Year |
Total cash
available |
# of free
agents needed |
Cash per
player |
$ spent in
auction |
2003 |
$557.1m |
360 |
$1.55m |
$328.5m (59%) |
2004 |
$606.2m |
343 |
$1.77m |
$363.5m (60%) |
2005 |
$498.2m |
292 |
$1.71m |
$318m (64%) |
2006 |
$621.3m |
327 |
$1.90m |
$341.5m (55%) |
2007 |
$569.0m |
296 |
$1.92m |
$364.5m (64%) |
2008 |
$595.5m |
320 |
$1.86m |
$324.0m (54%) |
2009 |
$543.3m |
292 |
$1.86m |
$289.5m (53%) |
2010 |
$417.5m |
261 |
$1.60m |
$289.5m (69%) |
2011 |
$472.9m |
295 |
$1.60m |
$269.0m (57%) |
2012 |
$361.0m |
267 |
$1.35m |
$214.5m (59%) |
2013 |
$511.8m |
293 |
$1.75m |
$272.0m (53%) |
2014 |
$489.0m |
297 |
$1.64m |
$296.5m (61%) |
2015 |
$352.5m |
275 |
$1.28m |
TBD |
Thanks, in part, to an unusual number
of penalties doled out in 2014, there isn't a lot of money on the board
this winter. It is the least amount of available cash in the free agent
market in league history, and the $1.25 million per player is the lowest
in history by a whopping 5.5 percent.
Which teams will be spending all this money?
Anthony Peburn may have fallen short of
his goal of world domination in 2014, but he will have $34 million to
reconstruct the Death Star in 2015. South Carolina ($31.6MM) and Chicago
($31MM) will also have northwards of $30 large to spend this winter.
Frighteningly enough, the St. Louis
Apostles have a whopping $27.5 million to spend on just seven players --
an average of nearly $4 million per player. That average spending figure
is dwarfed, however, by the Big River Beavers, who have a ginormous $6
million per player budget.
At the other end of the spectrum, both
the Granite State Lightning and Salem Cowtippers left themselves with
nothing but $100,000 picks. Both teams will sit on the sidelines until
Round 26. The New York Giants ($2.9MM to spend) and Bear Country
Jamboree ($4.7MM) are nearly in the same boat.
How does the Class of 2016
look at this point?
Save your pennies. 2016 has the
potential to be the best class of free agents the league has ever seen.
On the pitching side, Ervin Santana, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez,
Jon Lester, Jered Weaver, Jake Arrieta, Felix Hernandez, Hiroshi Iwakuma,
Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Matt Garza, Ian Kennedy and Jake Peavy will
all be vying for your hard-earned dollars.
On the offensive side, we're looking at
Miguel Cabrera, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Jayson Werth, Hanley
Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton, Chase Headley,
Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Braun and Ian Desmond. |